Financial markets teach you humility. Two years ago, I made these
related forecasts. First I forecast the euro would strengthen as European economic recovery picked up and the US economy slowed. Second, I forecast euro strength would be augmented over the next five years by a reduction of Europe's $100 billion to $150 billion of excess dollar reserves. Third, I forecast that the authorities would be less concerned over exchange rates, would only intervene after bigger exchange rate moves, and so exchange rate volatility would rise. Interestingly, people still ask for my opinion. Avinash Persaud, Managing director, Global Markets Analysis, State Street Bank Risk, October, 2000, p. 29
Presuppositions for financial markets, risk preferences, risk-return tradeoff, and market efficiency Theoretical fair value Arbitrage, storage, and delivery The role of derivative markets Criticisms of derivatives Ethics
Efficient market defined: A market in which the price of an asset equals its true economic value. An efficient market is a consequence of rational and knowledgeable investor behavior The concept of theoretical fair value The true economic value
Codes of ethics and standards of professional conduct are
vital components of the derivatives profession Examples CFA Institute Professional Risk Managers International Association Global Association of Risk Professionals
An Introduction to Derivatives and
Chance/Brooks Ch. 1: 16 Risk Management, 9th ed. Derivatives and Your Career Financial management in a business Small businesses ownership Investment management Public service