Moneyball Case

Team 2.5
Rami Haidar
Sally Harb
Lara Ezzeddine
Ali Hachem
Q1: Strategy
1.1 What was Billy Bean’s problem as he approached the draft for players?

• The team lost 3 important players to rivals

• The team had a small budget ($34million) compared to the league average ($65
million) so it was more difficult to attract players
• The Team’s Star Players were looking for their last pay day (looking to join teams
that could give them big fina contracts)
It was therefore extremely difficult to challenge the big MLB teams (such as the
Yankees).
Q 1: Strategy

1.2 Was Billy Beane’s framing of the problem different from his competitors’? How?
What is an example of different ways of conceptualization/framing?
Why do different ways of framing the problem matter?

• Billy Beane had the constraint of drafting players that were within the payroll budget
• This meant he could not go after the high profile recruits and had to look for “hidden
gems” or players that flew under the radar
• Other teams had the luxury of going after the best players they saw fit in the draft
(without a budget constraint; could offer star players whatever they wanted)
• Different ways of framing matter since the budget constraint meant Billy Beane had to
devise no ways to compete with the big MBL franchises.
Q 2: Information/Data/etc (Exploration and Execution)
2.1 What data items should Beane look at? How should he prepare the data?
Before Beane’s assessment , players were evaluated based on their athletic ability, personality, and attitude “Athletic
Measurement” .
The Dimensions they used to look at :
Run
Throw
Field
Hit for Average
Hit with power

Using a more statistical approach, he focused on specific player performance indicators, the significant one is as follows :
At Bat
Runs
Hits
Runs batted in
Base- on- balls
Strike out
Left on base
After gathering, the data will showcase the Players with significant scores and further analysis on the metrics for
selection
Q 2: Information/Data/etc (Exploration and Execution)

2.2 Translate these data items into statistics should Beane use in selecting players
Beane should calculate metrics to evaluate :
%On Base = hits+walks+hit-by-pitch/at-base + walks + hit-by-pitch + sacrifice-fly

Slugging= total bases / total at-bats

Total = %OBG+ slugging

•These statistics enables Beane to conduct analysis based on the historical data of the players performance
rather initial metrics of Athletic Measurement.
Q 2: Information/Data/etc (Exploration and Execution)

2.3 Is there any other data that you suggest Beane should use?
Other factors that play a major role in defining whether a team has a high chance
of winning or not
 Behavior within the team
 Injury History
 Conflict situations
Q3 - Modelling

3.1 Explain the thrust of data analysis in figure 3?

Figure 3's data analysis illustrates the association between each team's
average runs per game and the following 4 stats:
● Batting average
● On-base percentage
● Slugging percentage
● On-base percentage + slugging
Figure 3 demonstrates that all four metrics, which all have substantial R-
squared values, have a positive association with the average number of
runs.
Q3 - Modelling

3.2 What is the utility of this analysis?

• The analysis in Figure 3 intriguing because, while not being the
standard metrics for player evaluation, all of the metrics plotted
against the average number of runs had strong R-squared values.
• This means that these statistics needed to be used when evaluating
new players entering the league.
Q3 - Modelling
3.3 Could you have done the analysis any other way, HOW, WHY?
(HINT: For example, could you have done the analysis at the level of
each game rather than each team? Why? Would it matter?)
• The data should continue to be analyzed at the team level rather than
the game level. When analyzing data at the game level, it is possible
to find outliers or missing data (for example, when a player has a bad
game or doesn't participate play). When data is collected at the game
level, the model may become inaccurate, which would have a
negative impact on how players are evaluated.
Q3 - Modelling

3.4 How could you choose among the models?

The three most important metrics when evaluating models are:

● Accuracy measures of the model (MAPE, MAE, RMSE)
● The number of predictors
● Multicollinearity
We are looking for models with high accuracy and low complexity that
show some sort of correlation between metrics.
Q 4: Evaluation of the Model
4.1 How should Beane balance the quantitative assessments based on the model and the
qualitative assessments by the scouts? Summarize your answer in a table focuses on quantitative
way (data-driven) versus qualitative way?
Data Pros Data Cons

• Fact-driven since it relies on a player’s
observed play
• Higher accurate
• Allows for logical comparisons
“Those numbers are better than anyone’s in
minor league baseball”
• Assistants sololy rely on the data & blindly trust
it
• No consideration of the qualitative
characteristics of players

Qualitative Assessment Pros Qualitative Assessment Cons

Provides information of the unquantifiable • Might lead to biased decisions (Herd mentality)
characteristics of players such as stage presence • More risky
and charm (“two for fifty” is considered a success)
Q4: Evaluation of the Model

4.1 How should Beane balance the quantitative assessments based on the
model and the qualitative assessments by the scouts? Summarize your answer
in a table focuses on quantitative way (data-driven) versus qualitative way?

• By mediating discussions between the scouts and his assistants, Beane is

already benefiting from both approaches/strategies.
• They are more likely to identify biases and resolve the drawbacks of both
methods when they take this decision-making approach.
• With this strategy, they may resolve any disagreements and come to a well-
informed conclusion/decision.
Q4: Evaluation of the Model
4.2 Should Beane go with the data or the scouts? When there is a difference
between the data approach (e.g., selecting a player who is not athletic, but
walks a lot leading to runs) versus a player that scouts value based on their
baseball instincts and experiences, who should Beane choose? Why?
If they are faced with a conflict that cannot be resolved, they should follow the
data approach because it’s a safer bet.
• Rational
• Higher accuracy
• Lower Risk
However, choosing between one of the two approaches should be a last resort.
Q4: Evaluation of the Model

4.3 More generally, as a manager, how do you reconcile “club cultures” around
data and expertise? Can you?

In order to reconcile both cultures, a manager should:

• Emphasize the common goal (reaching best scouting

decision)
• Communicate the complementary relationship
between the two approaches (the best decisions are
made when both approaches are used in conjunction)
Q 5: Deployment

5.1 Here Billy Beane is getting the output of the data system as an input into his
decision making. Could he develop and deploy a system that actually makes the
decisions?

Billy Bean could, in theory, create and implement a system that really makes the
decisions. The algorithm may use variables like player recruiting budgets, player
value and pricing, and the league level the player competes in to make decisions.
But given that there are some variables that a machine cannot control, the system
might not be successful in making decisions (e.g. the player might not be interested
in playing for the club).
Q 5: Deployment

5.2 Are there other factors that Beane should consider even if the model works
well? What are these? Use below hints.

• The player's health (does he have a chronic injury? Is he prone to injuries?).

• The player's attitude (Does the player have a negative attitude that might damage
the team's overall mood?).
• His capacity for team adaptation (Will the manager feel at ease with the player?
Does his playing style complement the team's play strategy?)
• Is the player's age appropriate for the team (i.e., the club's average age is already
high, therefore they can't sign an older player)?
 Q 6: Conclusion
6.1 Explicitly connect this case’s focus on Billy Beane and the Oakland A's story
to our earlier framework for doing business analytics: the triangle? Explain
how business strategy connects to other 2 parts of triangle via details of the
case (i.e., what is the triangle helpful in telling us?)

Information/analytics infrastructure driven by strategy can be used in this

situation!
The strategic objective is established first. Strategic Objective: Stay
competitive on a budget
This strategic objective directs the scouting process' operations
This strategic objective motivates data-driven decision making.
IT infrastructure is determined through the scouting process.

Models
Scouting Process developed by
scouting process
Q 6: Conclusion
6.2 What is the relation of a “big picture” of triangle that should underpin any
analytics effort in a business context to what we went through in the case, i.e.,:
Key Steps:
1. Determining the jobs in the field that must be filled during the transfer market
period.
2. Making a shortlist of prospective players who can be signed based on their
regression model score.
3. Assessing the athletes and selecting recruits based on their standings overall in
comparison to other players
Applying these three steps annually would provide a robust learning system since each
year they would produce results and they will be able to analyze those results and come
up with conclusions on what to change and that would continue on and on.