Gold & Petrodollar

Gold Vs Dolar
 Introduction : History of Gold
 Literature Review :
• Gold Demand
• Gold supply
• Factors affecting gold price
 Conclusion :
• Gold price determine
• The Gold reservoir
• Gold market exchange
 Recommendation :
• Gold vs USD
• Gold price trend
 References
 Gold “ About History “
Gold was the major
currency for trading in
ancient period but for its
difficult on carrying or on
huge trading, the world
accept to find a paper to
replace of gold and cover
by it.
 Gold “ About History “
• Paper currency first developed in Tang
Dynasty China during the 7th century,
European explorers the concept in Europe
during the 13th century. Napoleon issued
paper banknotes in the early 1800s.
• The perception of banknotes as money has
evolved over time. Originally, money was
based on precious metals. Banknotes were
seen as essentially an I.O.U. or
promissory note
• Pound sterling was the leader for gold
covering because of England role of
worldwide economy but after world war I ,all
Europeans suffer from war and USA
take the hand from that moment

A
 Gold demand
• On the forefront of consumption are China and India, with its rising
economic strength. Part of demand in East Asia, India and the
Middle East is also connected with a strong cultural and religious
significance, which is not directly associated with global economic
trends.
• Demand for gold is powered by a combination of affordability and
desirability, another relevant factor is growth in living standards of
population and the fact, that gold represents safe haven
investment.
 Gold demand (Cont’d)
• Technically, gold offers high thermal and electrical
conductivity, and excellent resistance to corrosion.
• This explains why more than half of the industrial
demand is resulting from its use in electrical components
and demand of gold in technology sector continues to
grow.
• According to biocompatibility and resistance to corrosion
and bacteria, gold is also applied in medicine.
 Gold demand (Cont’d)
• In terms of gold market, the exchange rates (especially
dollar exchange rate in which gold is quoted) are very
important.
• There is a negative correlation. If the dollar falls /
depreciates, the price of gold usually goes up; strong
dollar keeps the price of gold controlled and low. On the
other hand, low dollar moves price of gold up.

Analysis of the Relationship between Oil and Gold Prices,Jana Šimáková, Silesian University in
 In short, the demand factors are possibly
incorporated into the following categories:

• World population, world GDP;

• Growth of living standards of population;
• Exchange rates against the USD;
• Technological development;
• Speculative and other effects.

W Analysis of the Relationship between Oil and Gold Prices,Jana Šimáková, Silesian University in
 Gold supply
• The gold supply is influenced
by the gold mining companies
on all continents. This wide
geographical expansion
means that the circumstances
in any region, political or any • Currently, the global level of
mining production is
other have a significant
relatively stable. Stability of
impact on the overall supply production is based on the
of gold. fact that new discovered
mines replaced terminated
production and do not extend
level of supply.
 Gold supply (Cont’d)
• Central banks and international organizations
(such as The International Monetary Fund) keep
almost one fifth of the world’s reserves of
extracted gold in the form of reserve assets.
Governments hold in average 10% of its
reserves in gold.

Analysis of the Relationship between Oil and Gold Prices,Jana Šimáková, Silesian University in
 Big Gold mining companies

A
 The main factors that affect the total amount of this
commodity

• Technical and technological

progress in gold mining;

• Political factors;

• Short-term factors: natural

disasters and military conflicts.
 Other bullish factors
• Should gold renew its classic relationship with the dollar now,
it may be poised to seek higher levels as further weakening
of the dollar as well as other bullish factors stack up in the
New Year. Other bullish factors include:
• China
– Continued demand for the physical metals caused by extraordinary
economic growth in China creates an explosive need for commodities
including gold, silver, and copper.
 Reasons Gold Price Could Go Higher
• The Dollar Isn't At Its Best
The dollar has been on a losing
streak, just like stocks. Since
peaking at just over 86 in late June
2010, the U.S. dollar index - which
measures the strength of the dollar
against a basket of other
currencies - has fallen to just
below 74. That's nearly a 14%
decline.Investors have always
viewed gold as a hedge against a
falling dollar.
 Reasons Gold Price Could Go Higher
(Cont’d)
• Global Demand for Gold Is High
Private investors in foreign countries have long been hoarding gold, and
they'll probably keep buying large amounts. China is just one example.
• Demand in China has grown by double digits for the past 10 years.
Analysts estimate that China may overtake India as the world's largest
gold buyer sometime this year.
 Who Holds The Largest Gold
Reserves?
As at January 2015 (Top 10 based on
World Gold Council
Country/ Gold holdings
Rank
Organization (in tonnes)

1 United States 8,133.5

2 Germany 3,384.2
3 Italy 2,814.0
4 France 2,451.8
5 Russia 2,435.4
6 China 1,206.8
7 Switzerland 1,054.1
8 Japan 1,040.0
9 Netherlands 765.2
10 India 612.5
H
 Gold price
• A significant component of gold demand is resulting
from the composition and characteristics of this rare
commodity. However, the reality shows that gold is
used as essential component of 654 investment
portfolio.
• Supply and demand are main factors that determine
the price of gold. Dynamics of supply and demand in
bullion market are supported by functionality and
features of this precious metal, as well as
investment characteristics
DETERMINANTS OF THE GOLD PRICE , Prof. dr. Michael Frömmel,
Prof. dr. ir. Benjamin Schrauwen, Michiel Hermans ,Francis wyffels,
FACULTEIT ECONOMIE EN BEDRIJFSKUNDE,2012
 Gold price (Cont’d)
• The World Gold Council is the market development organization
for the gold industry is working within the investment, jewelry
and technology sectors, as well as engaging in government
affairs, its purpose is to provide industry leadership, whilst
stimulating and sustaining demand for gold.
• Based in the UK, with operations in India, the Far East and
the USA, the World Gold Council is an association whose 19
members comprise the world’s leading gold mining companies.
• The World Gold Council, organization of the gold industry
representing approximately 60% of global corporate gold
production, says that the price of gold is in many terms
influenced by governments and central banks.

www.gold.org
 Gold price (Cont’d)
• The final price of the major amount of sold gold is
based on the prices on the world markets and gold
prices set by the London Fix, which is determined
twice a day by members of The London Gold Market
Fixing Ltd.
• The value of the London Fix is used as a benchmark
for the prices of most
investment items and
derivatives of gold traded
worldwide

www.bullionvault,com
 Gold price (Cont’d)
• Since 12 September 1919, London is the center in
the world for fixing the gold price. On the 12th of
September 1919 the five member banks, N.M.
Rotschild & Sons, Mocatta & Goldsmid, Samuel
Montagu & Co, Pixley & Abell and Sharps &
Wilkings, fixed for the first time the gold price at
£4.94 per ounce.
• Until 1968, the fix was in Sterling’s but from then on,
it was quoted in dollars. Around that same period, an
afternoon fix was also introduced to better serve the
American market.

www.bullionvault,com
 Gold price (Cont’d)
• Today the London fix is established two
times per day by five members, once at 10.30
and once at 15.00.

• The five current members are Scotiabank,

HSBC, Barclays Capital, Deutsche Bank and
Société Générale Corporate & Investment
Banking.
 GOLD MARKET EXCHANGE
1- The bulk of global trading in gold and silver is conducted on
the over-the-counter (OTC) market. London is by far the largest
global center for OTC transactions followed by New York,
Zurich, and Tokyo.
•Physical Exchanges example:
•London: LBMA
•Turkey: Istanbul Gold Exchange
•UAE: Dubai Multi Commodities Centre
•The London bullion market is a wholesale over-the-counter market
for the trading of gold and silver. Trading is conducted amongst
members of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), loosely
overseen by the Bank of England. Most of the members are major
international banks or bullion dealers and refiners.

http://www.lbma.org.uk/index.html
 GOLD MARKET EXCHANGE
2- Gold is also traded in forms of securities, such as exchange-traded
funds (ETFs), on the London, New York, Johannesburg, and Australian
stock exchanges.
3- The most significant gold futures exchanges are the COMEX:
The primary market for trading metals such as gold, silver, copper and
aluminum. Formerly known as the Commodity Exchange Inc., the
COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile exchange in 1994 and
became the division responsible for metals trading.
•International Board of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE)
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/
www.en.sge.com.cn

W
 Gold Vs USD “ About History “
In the final days of World War II, 44 leaders
from all of the Allied nations met in Bretton
Woods, New Hampshire in an effort to
create a new global economic order.
With much of the global economy
decimated by the war, the United States
emerged as the world's new economic
leader.
In addition to introducing a number of
global financial agencies, the historic
meeting also created an international gold-
backed monetary standard which relied
heavily upon the U.S. Dollar.
 Gold Exchange Standard
“Gold exchange standard" was established
by the Bretton Woods Agreements.

Under this system, many countries fixed

their exchange rates relative to the U.S.
dollar.

The U.S. promised to fix the price of gold at

approximately $35 per ounce.

Implicitly, then, all currencies pegged to

the dollar also had a fixed value in terms of
gold.
 The Rise of U.S. Dollar

The point of above history is that it

created demand for dollar on
international level.

Initially it worked well. But in late 60s

,due to economic condition of USA at
that time, countries started losing
trust in USA economy.
Because of which , countries started
demanding their gold back. Which
was not good for America as it would
have decreased demand for dollar .

G
 Relationship between gold and
the US dollar
• The negative relationship
between gold and the US
dollar. The argument goes that
as gold is traded primarily in
dollars, a weaker dollar makes
gold cheaper for other nations
to purchase and increases their
demand for the yellow metal.
• This increase in foreign
demand then drives up the
dollar price of gold, giving gold
and the dollar their negative
relationship.

Chaudhuri, K., Daniel, B.C. (1998), “Long-Run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates and Oil Prices.
Gold prices Trend
 Petrodollar
 Introduction :
• What is Oil and its importance?
 Literature review:
• Oil price determined (Demand/Supply/Market sentiment)
 Conclusion :
• What is Opec organization?
• Protect Dollar !
 Recommendation :
• Correlation oil price with US$
• Effect of crisis on oil prices
• Gold Vs Oil
 References
What is Oil ?

1-30
 What is Oil ?
• Oils burn in air generating
heat, which can be used
directly, or converted into
other forms of fuels by
various means.
*Oil was appeared in
middle east at 1901 in Iran
by British Petroleum
company
1-31
On shore Gas
 Why the oil is important ?
• It is a source of energy
• Oils are used as fuels for
heating , lighting ,
powering engines and
other purposes.

1-33
Oil Was Used To Manufacture Every
Item In This Photograph!
Dangerous industry
 How is the oil price determined?

It is determined by two factors

First one : Second one :

The supply and demand
By Opec organization
of oil and market
sentiment

H
 Factors affecting oil Demand,
according to Researchers
Divided into the following
categories:
•Changes in world population,
world GDP;
• Changes in energy balance;
• Climatic conditions and
changes;
•Importers exchange rates
against the U.S. Dollar;
•Commercial policy actions in
importing countries;
•Speculations and other factors.

Analysis of the Relationship between Oil and Gold Prices,Jana Šimáková, Silesian University in
Factors affecting oil Supply, according
to Researchers
• Amount of proven global oil reserves
and new deposits;
• Technical and technological
advances in oil extraction and
processing;
• Political factors, the activities of
OPEC and NOPEC (Non-Oil Power
Exporting Countries);
• Short-term factors: natural disasters,
accidents, political and military
conflicts.

Analysis of the Relationship between Oil and Gold Prices,Jana Šimáková, Silesian University in
 MARKET SENTIMENT
• The other key factor in determining oil prices is sentiment. The
mere belief that oil demand will increase dramatically at some
point in the future can result in a dramatic increase in oil prices
in the present as speculators and hedgers alike snap up oil
futures contracts. Of course, the opposite is also true. The
mere belief that oil demand will decrease at some point in the
future can result in a dramatic decrease in prices in the present
as oil futures contracts are sold

• http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketsentiment.asp
 MARKET SENTIMENT (CONT’D)
• The overall attitude of investors toward a particular security or
larger financial market. Market sentiment is the feeling or tone
of a market, or its crowd psychology, as revealed through the
activity and price movement of the securities traded in that
market. For example, rising prices would indicate a bullish
market sentiment, while falling prices would indicate a bearish
market sentiment. Market sentiment is also called "investor
sentiment" and is not always based on fundamentals.
 Conclusion
• ​Unlike most products, oil prices are not
determined entirely by supply, demand and
market sentiment toward the physical
product. Rather, supply, demand and
sentiment toward oil futures contracts,
which are traded heavily by speculators,
play a dominant role in price determination.
• Regardless of how the price is ultimately
determined, based on its use in fuels and
countless consumer goods, it appears that
oil will continue to be in high demand for
the foreseeable future.

A
Top oil importers
Demand in the biggest Economies
Increased
• USA first demander
around the world
• It consumed 1/5 of the
production of the world
• China 2nd, largest Oil
Users
• Oil Consumption
increased by 7.5 % per
year
 Impact Pathways :
Fuel shortage
Oil * Natural gas

Price increases
Transportation * Manufacturing * Food

Oil Suppliers Economic Impacts Oil Consumers Economic Impacts

Increase in there GDP / High stock Less Consumer Spending / Business
Markets failure

Social Impacts
Stress, Conflict, Less government
revenue
Influences of Oil prices on Oil suppliers
• A $5 per barrel oil price hike is
expected to raise the net trade balance
of the OPEC countries by
approximately $64 billion (7 percent of
GDP)
• The impact of higher oil prices on
growth and activity in oil producing
countries will depend on a variety of
factors, most importantly how these
windfall oil revenues are spent
• An EIA (U.S. Energy Information
Administration) report stated that OPEC
member nations were projected to earn
a net amount of $1.251 trillion in 2013
from their oil exports, due to the record
crude prices.
W
The Same Game with a New Name:
"Dollars for Oil" Replaces "Dollars for Gold"
 Terminating Gold Standard
The weight of the system upon the United
States became unbearable.

On August 15, 1971, President Richard M.

Nixon shocked the global economy when
he officially ended the international
convertibility from U.S. dollars into gold,
thereby bringing an official end to the
Bretton Woods arrangement and start
flexible exchange rate

Two years later, in an effort to maintain

global demand for U.S. dollars, another
system was created called the petrodollar
system
 The Rise of Petrodollar System

In 1973, a deal was struck between Saudi

Arabia and the United States in which every
barrel of oil purchased from the Saudis
would be denominated in U.S. dollars.

Under this new arrangement, any country

that thought to purchase oil from Saudi
Arabia would be required to first exchange
their own national currency for U.S. dollars.

In exchange for Saudi Arabia's willingness

to denominate their oil sales exclusively in
U.S. dollars, the United States offered
weapons and protection of their oil fields
from neighboring nations, including Israel.
 Petrodollar Terms

The Americans laid out their terms, they

were simple, and two-fold :-
1) The Saudis must agree to price all of
their oil sales in U.S. dollars only. (In
other words, the Saudis were to refuse
all other currencies, except the U.S.
dollar, as payment for their oil exports.)
2) The Saudis would be open to
investing their surplus oil proceeds in
U.S. debt securities.

G
The Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) is a permanent, intergovernmental
Organization, created at the Baghdad Conference on
September, 1960, by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia
and Venezuela. The five Founding Members were later
joined by nine other Members: Qatar; Indonesia; Libya;
United Arab Emirates; Algeria; Nigeria; Ecuador; Angola
and Gabon

OPEC has its headquarters in Vienna, Austria

OPEC's objective is to co-ordinate and unify
petroleum policies among Member Countries, in order
to secure fair and stable prices for petroleum
producers; an efficient, economic and regular supply
of petroleum to consuming nations; and a fair return
on capital to those investing in the industry.
 OPEC declaration of its currency
By 1975, all of the OPEC nations had agreed to price their own oil
supplies exclusively in U.S. dollars in exchange for weapons and
military protection.
 Some hints !
• Before Dollars, Americans were dealing with
French, English and Spanish currency ,that was
causing confusion in the trade and economic
transactions at the USA. In 1785 Dollar had been
determined as the unified currency for the
Association of American States.
• Dollars are all characterized by a single size is
156 mm long and 66 mm wide for the printed
frame. The middle medal (s) be for a well-known
and distinguished politicians in American history.
• More than 50% of world exports are paid for in
dollars, including oil, as all Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are pricing
oil in US dollars. As a whole, volume up in dollar
around the world is about three trillions monthly.
Radhamés A. Lizardo & André V. Mollick “Oil Price Fluctuations and U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates” Department of
Economics and Finance, University of Texas – Pan American
 The series
 Just remember !

 1944 : start of Gold covering

 1971 : Terminating Gold covering and let US$

to be general accepted coin around the world
 1973 : USA & Saudi accepted to trade oil by
US $
 1975 : Opec accepted to trade oil by US $

W
Booming of USD

• This petrodollar system, or more simply

known as an "oil for dollars" system,
created an immediate artificial demand for
U.S. dollars around the globe. And of
course, as global oil demand increased,
so did the demand for U.S. dollars.
 Benefits of Petrodollar for
America
America only has four basic ways to solve its
economic problems :
1.Increase income by raising taxes for the citizens
2.Cut spending by reducing benefits
3.Borrow money through the issuance of
government bonds
4.Print money

That leaves the final option of printing money. Printing

money requires no immediate sacrifice and no spending
cuts. Its a perfect solution for a growing country that
wants to avoid making any sacrifices. However, printing
more money than is needed can lead to inflation.
Therefore, if a country can somehow generate a global
demand for its currency, it has a "permission slip" to
print more money. Book “Bankruptcy of our Nation” Jerry
Robinson
 Benefits of Petrodollar for
America (Cont’d)
• It increases global demand for U.S. dollars.(The important concept
here is that a growing demand "permits" the producer to increase
his supply. )
• It gives the United States the ability to buy oil with a currency it can
print at will
• The petrodollar system has proven tremendously beneficial to the
U.S. economy. In addition to creating a marketplace for affordable
imported goods from countries who need U.S. dollars.
• Today, virtually all global oil transactions are settled in U.S. dollars

A
 US attack to protect dollar !
• First example Iraq: In November 2000 Iraq begin selling its oil exclusively this is
a direct attack on the dollar in on US financial dominance thing
–The US government response started to build up a massive propaganda
campaign claiming that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction
–Was planning to use it. in 2003 the US invaded want to control the country to
switch back to dollars this is particularly notable due to the fact that switching
back to the dollar.
• Second example Libia :The Libyans Gaddafi was in the process of organizing a
block African countries to create a coal-based currency called the diner
–It was the intended to use to replace the dollar .
–US and NATO forces some toppled Libyan government 2011 after taking control
the region US armed rebels executed Gaddafi in cold blood
 Winners and losers
Benefits for OPEC nations:-
weapons, military aid, and guaranteed protection from Israel in
front of third world, oil-rich, Middle East nations
Effect on other countries:-
Other countries will have to
get dollar in order to purchase oil.
There are two ways to get dollar
1. Via exchange
2. Via exporting goods to America.
Second option is preferable as in first option you’ll have to pay extra
in terms of exchange cost .Now to export goods to America ,it
should import it. Thus countries are forced to create goods of
Americas interest.
 NB. China , Brazil, Australia, Russia and Iran make agreement to
trade without US $
 World needs $ to obtain Oil
• The easiest way to obtain U.S. dollars is through the
foreign exchange markets. This is not, however, a
viable long-term solution as it is cost-prohibitive.
Therefore, many countries have opted instead to
develop an export-led strategy with the United
States in order to exchange their goods and services
for the U.S. dollars that they need to purchase oil in
the global markets. (This should help explain much of
East Asia’s export-led strategy since the 1980's.)
• Japan, for example, is an island nation with very few
natural resources. It must import large amounts of
commodities, including oil, which requires U.S.
dollars. So Japan manufactures a Honda and ships it
to the United States and immediately receives
payment in U.S. dollars.
• Also decrease her currency to encourage export with
low price !

H
Correlation Oil price with US $
 Does Oil Prices explain USD
Fluctuation ?
Researches find that oil prices significantly contribute to
the explanation of movements in the value of the USD in
the long-run.

In general, an increase in the real price of oil leads to a

significant depreciation of the U.S. dollar relative to net
oil exporter countries such as Canada, Mexico, and
Russia.

On the other hand, the currencies of importers of oil,

such as Japan and Denmark suffer a depreciation of
their own currency relative to the USD when the real
price of oil goes up.

Radhamés A. Lizardo & André V. Mollick “Oil Price Fluctuations and U.S.
Dollar Exchange Rates” Department of Economics and Finance, University
of Texas
 Oil and gold with US $

W
 Effects of USA oil purchases
Since oil is a pervasive commodity in the
global economy and is denominated in
USD in international markets, significant
purchases of oil by the U.S.A. causes
an increase in the supply of U.S. dollars
in foreign exchange markets relative to the
currencies of net exporter of oil, which
would push the value of the USD
downwards.
Robustness exercises also show that
oil price shocks are associated in the
short-run with a decrease in the value
of the USD relative to all currencies
as well as to the trade weighted
broad and major indexes.
 Price from 1947 till 2011

October 73 War

1-64
G
When did the financial crisis began?

• The financial
crisis began
on September
2008.
• And also the
oil crisis start !

1-65
Why did this crisis happened?(Cont’d)

• Failures of big
financial institutions in
the United States,
followed by European
banks failures.
• Declines in various
stock indexes and
credit crisis leading to
the bankruptcy.
1-66
Year 2008 and financial crisis

Oil crisis

Financial crisis

1-67
The impact of financial crisis on oil
prices
• The oil price got
decreased sharply
• Bankruptcy of some
big organizations
• Some other
Organizations Shrinked
• The demand for every
thing decreased

1-68
 Some hints !
• The production worldwide is around 90 Million
barrel per day
• The big user of oil around the world is USA
which needs around 17 million barrel per day
which means around 4% of worldwide
population consumed around 20% of worldwide
production
• When the oil price decreased , the shale oil
produced also decreased because the cost of
produced doesn’t cover by sells price
• Winner: Egypt gain around US $ 25 billion from
decreasing oil price (Egypt paid $100 billion for
subsides the oil and now only $75 billion)
• Loser: Russia lose 30% of her currency and try
to increase bank interest from 10% to 17% to
appreciate the government currency
http://www.alahram.org.eg/pub_econ.htm
 Weakness US currency is good!
• US economy realized that the internal gains from
the weakness of its currency are more than they
thought
• The weakness of the US currency has increased
the competitive opportunities for US companies
as a result of the decline in its currency in front of
other European and Asian companies, and thus
these companies have begun to raise exports,
expansion of productive and the number of
employees.
• The US interior tourism has grown significantly;
although The American tourist was the main
source of the international tourism in Europe and
Asia, the US tourist now prefers the internal
tourism which stimulates the growth of the US
domestic economy
H Frait, J., Komárek, L. (2006), “Půl století vývoje světových peněz (Half a Century of Global Money
GOLD VS OIL
GOLD VS OIL
GOLD VS OIL

GOLD
PRICE
GOING
DOWN
 GOLD VS OIL

W
 Reference
• http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketsentiment.asp
• http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/determining-
oil-prices.asp
• Analysis of the Relationship between Oil and Gold Prices,Jana
Šimáková, Silesian University in Opava ,School of Business
Administration in Karvina, Department of Finance.
• DETERMINANTS OF THE GOLD PRICE , Prof. dr. Michael
Frömmel,Prof. dr. ir. Benjamin Schrauwen, Michiel
Hermans ,Francis wyffels,FACULTEIT ECONOMIE EN
BEDRIJFSKUNDE,2012
• http://www.kitco.com/ind/DDuval/2014-12-09-What-Impact-Will-
Lower-Crude-Prices-Have-on-Gold-and-Gold-Mining-Shares.html
• http://www.businessinsider.com/what-the-strong-dollar-does-to-
yellow-and-black-gold-and-why-were-seeing-green-2014-10
 Reference (Cont’d)
• http://www.lbma.org.uk/index.html
• http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/
• Radhamés A. Lizardo & André V. Mollick “Oil Price Fluctuations and
U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates” Department of Economics and Finance,
University of Texas – Pan American
• Book “Bankruptcy of our Nation” Jerry Robinson
• OPEC Publications
• Amano, R. A., van Norden, S. (1998a), “Exchange Rates and Oil
Prices.” Review of International Economics,
• Amano, R. A., van Norden, S. (1998b), “Oil Prices and the Rise and
Fall of the US Real Exchange Rate.” Journal of International Money
and Finance,
• Babetskaia-Kukharchuk, O., Babetskii, I., Podpiera, J. (2008),
“Convergence in Exchange Rates: Market’s View on CE-4 Joining
EMU.” Applied Economic Letters,
 Reference (Cont’d)
• Bénassy-Quéré, A., Mignon, V., Penot, A. (2005), “China and the
Relationship between the Oil Price and the Dollar.” CEPII Working
• Brown, S. P. A., Virmani, R., Alm, R. (2008), “Crude Awakening:
Behind the Surge in Oil Prices.”Economic Letter – Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas, Vol. 5, No. 3.
• Chaudhuri, K., Daniel, B.C. (1998), “Long-Run Equilibrium Real
Exchange Rates and Oil Prices.” Economics Letters,
• Cuaresma, J. C., Breitenfellner, A. (2008), “Crude Oil Prices and the
Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Forecasting Exercise.” University of
Innsbruck – Working Papers in Economics and Statistics
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