Have you ever…

 Shot a rifle?
 Played darts?
 Played basketball?
 Shot a round of golf?

What is the point of these sports?

What makes them hard?
Have you ever…
 Shot a rifle?
Emmett
 Played darts?
 Shot a round of golf?
 Played basketball?

Jake

Who is the better shot?

Discussion
 What do you measure in your process?
 Why do those measures matter?
 Are those measures consistently the
same?
 Why not?
Variability 8
7
10
8
 Deviation = distance between 9

observations and the mean (or Emmett

average)
Observations Deviations
10 10 - 8.4 = 1.6
9 9 – 8.4 = 0.6
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4
Jake
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4
7 7 – 8.4 = -1.4
averages 8.4 0.0
Variability
 Deviation = distance between
observations and the mean (or Emmett

average)
Observations Deviations
7
7 7 – 6.6 = 0.4 6
7 7 – 6.6 = 0.4 7
7 7 – 6.6 = 0.4 7
6 Jake
6 6 – 6.6 = -0.6
6 6 – 6.6 = -0.6
averages 6.6 0.0
Variability 8
7
10
8
 Variance = average distance 9

between observations and the Emmett

mean squared
Observations Deviations Squared Deviations
10 10 - 8.4 = 1.6 2.56
9 9 – 8.4 = 0.6 0.36
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4 0.16
Jake
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4 0.16
7 7 – 8.4 = -1.4 1.96
averages 8.4 0.0 1.0 Variance
 Variability
 Variance = average distance
between observations and the Emmett

mean squared
Observations Deviations Squared Deviations
7
7 6
7 7
7 7
6 Jake
6
6
averages
 Variability
 Variance = average distance
between observations and the Emmett

mean squared
Observations Deviations Squared Deviations
7
7 7 - 6.6 = 0.4 0.16 6
7 7 - 6.6 = 0.4 0.16 7
7 7 - 6.6 = 0.4 0.16 7
6 Jake
6 6 – 6.6 = -0.6 0.36
6 6 – 6.6 = -0.6 0.36
averages 6.6 0.0 0.24 Variance
Variability
 Standard deviation = square root
of variance Emmett

Variance Standard
Deviation
Emmett 1.0 1.0
Jake 0.24 0.4898979 Jake

But what good is a standard deviation

Variability

The world tends to

be bell-shaped

Even very rare Fewer Most Fewer Even very rare

outcomes are in the outcomes in the outcomes are
possible “tails” occur in the “tails” possible
(probability > 0) (lower) middle (upper) (probability > 0)
Variability
Here is why: Even outcomes that are equally
likely (like dice), when you add
them up, become bell shaped
Add up the dots on the dice

0.2

0.15
Probability

1 die
0.1 2 dice
0.05 3 dice

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Sum of dots
 “Normal” bell shaped curve

Add up about 30 of most things

and you start to be “normal”

Normal distributions are divide up

into 3 standard deviations on
each side of the mean

Once your that, you

know a lot about
what is going on

And that is what a standard deviation

is good for
 Usual or unusual?
1. One observation falls
outside 3 standard
deviations?
2. One observation falls in
zone A?
3. 2 out of 3 observations fall in
one zone A?
4. 2 out of 3 observations fall in
one zone B or beyond?
5. 4 out of 5 observations fall in
one zone B or beyond?
6. 8 consecutive points above
X XX
XX1X XX2
X 34 56 78
the mean, rising, or falling?
Causes of Variability
 Common Causes:
 Random variation (usual)
 No pattern
 Inherent in process
 adjusting the process increases its variation
 Special Causes
 Non-random variation (unusual)
 May exhibit a pattern
 Assignable, explainable, controllable
 adjusting the process decreases its variation

SPC uses samples to identify that special causes have occurred

Limits
 Process and Control limits:
 Statistical
 Process limits are used for individual items
 Control limits are used with averages
 Limits = μ ± 3σ
 Define usual (common causes) & unusual (special
causes)
 Specification limits:
 Engineered
 Limits= target ± tolerance
 Define acceptable & unacceptable
Process vs. control limits
Distribution of averages

Control limits
Specification limits

Variance of averages < variance of individual items

Distribution of individuals

Process limits
Usual v. Unusual,
Acceptable v. Defective

A B C D E

μ Target
 More about limits
Good quality:
defects are
rare (Cpk>1)
μ
target

Poor quality:
defects are
common (Cpk<1)
μ
target

Cpk measures “Process Capability”

If process limits and control limits are at the same location, C pk = 1. Cpk ≥ 2 is exceptional.
Process capability
Good quality: defects are rare (Cpk>1)
Poor quality: defects are common (Cpk<1)
=
USL – x
= 24 – 20 =.667
3σ 3(2)
Cpk = min
=
x - LSL
= 20 – 15 =.833
3σ 3(2)

14 20 26
15 24
= =
3σ = (UPL – x, or x – LPL)
Going out of control
 When an observation is unusual, what can
we conclude?

The mean
has changed

μ1 μ2
Going out of control
 When an observation is unusual, what can
we conclude?

The standard deviation

σ1 has changed

σ2

X
Setting up control charts:
Calculating the limits
1. Sample n items (often 4 or 5)
2. Find the mean of the sample x (x-bar)
3. Find the range of the sample R
4. Plot x on the x chart
5. Plot the R on an R chart
6. Repeat steps 1-5 thirty times
7. Average the x ’s to create x (x-bar-bar)
8. Average the R’s to create R (R-bar)
Setting up control charts:
Calculating the limits
9. Find A2 on table (A2 times R estimates 3σ)
10. Use formula to find limits for x-bar chart:
X  A2 R

11. Use formulas to find limits for R chart:

LCL  D3 R UCL  D4 R
 Let’s try a small problem

smpl 1 smpl 2 smpl 3 smpl 4 smpl 5 smpl 6

observation 1 7 11 6 7 10 10
observation 2 7 8 10 8 5 5
observation 3 8 10 12 7 6 8
x-bar
R

X-bar chart R chart

UCL

Centerline

LCL
 Let’s try a small problem

smpl 1 smpl 2 smpl 3 smpl 4 smpl 5 smpl 6 Avg.

observation 1 7 11 6 7 10 10
observation 2 7 8 10 8 5 5
observation 3 8 10 12 7 6 8
X-bar 7.3333 9.6667 9.3333 7.3333 7 7.6667 8.0556
R 1 3 6 1 5 5 3.5

X-bar chart R chart

UCL 11.6361 9.0125
Centerline 8.0556 3.5
LCL 4.4751 0
X-bar chart

14.0000
12.0000 11.6361
10.0000
8.0000 8.0556
6.0000
4.4751
4.0000
2.0000
0.0000
1 2 3 4 5 6
R chart

10
9.0125
8
6

4
3.5
2

0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Interpreting charts
 Observations outside control limits indicate
the process is probably “out-of-control”
 Significant patterns in the observations
indicate the process is probably “out-of-
control”
 Random causes will on rare occasions
indicate the process is probably “out-of-
control” when it actually is not
Interpreting charts
 In the excel spreadsheet, look for these
shifts:

A B

C D

Show real time examples of charts here

Lots of other charts exist

P chart C charts U charts Cusum & EWMA

For yes-no For counting Average count Advanced charts
questions like number defects per unit (similar
“is it defective?” where most items to C chart)
(binomial data) have ≥1 defects
(eg. custom built
houses)

“V” shaped or
p (1  p ) u
p3 c 3 c u 3 Curved control
n n limits (calculate
them by hiring a
statistician)
Selecting rational samples
 Chosen so that variation within the sample is
considered to be from common causes
 Special causes should only occur between
samples
 Special causes to avoid in sampling
 passage of time
 workers
 shifts
 machines
 Locations
Chart advice
 Larger samples are more accurate
 Sample costs money, but so does being out-of-control
 Don’t convert measurement data to “yes/no” binomial
data (X’s to P’s)
 Not all out-of control points are bad
 Don’t combine data (or mix product)
 Have out-of-control procedures (what do I do now?)
 Actual production volume matters (Average Run Length)