Good Governance for

Development in Arab
Countries:
Fourth Regional
Working Group on
Civil Service and
Integrity
Robert P. Beschel Jr.
Lead Public Sector Specialist
World Bank MENA Vice Presidency
Rabat, April 2008

1
The Need
• Critical need for the “next generation” of more detailed,
actionable indicators.
• Early generation indicators (TI and KKM) were valuable in
starting the debate, but had a number of limitations:
– Conceptual limitations (Melissa Thomas)
– Empirical complications (OECD Paper)
– Not actionable or based on objective standards (TI)
– Occasionally produced quirky results (KKM: Hassan II vs.
Mohammad VI)
– Legitimate concerns about lags (Yemen CPIA)

2
HRM Actionable Governance
Indicators (AGI)
• Modeled after PEFA indicators for PFM
• Still in early stages
• Lots of unresolved issues…
– Scope can be daunting
– Absence of “good practice” in many areas
– Lack of available empirical data

In Light of the Above, What Should We Do?

3
Priority 1: Accurate, Up to Date
Information on Public Pay and
Employment in MENA
• Largest General Government Employment in the
Developing World
• Largest Central Government Employment (3% of
population)
• Smallest Sub-National government (in terms of
number of personnel)
• Largest Military (not counting other security
personnel)

4
How Do We Measure Civil
Service Size?
• Assessment of the Number of Civil Servants
– Number of Civil Servants per Capita
– Gov. Employment as % of Total Employment
• Assessment of the Wage Levels in Relative Terms
– Wage bill as % of GDP
– Wage bill as % of Revenue or Own Source Revenue
– Wage bill as % of Recurrent Expenditure

Aggregate Numbers Tells Us Very Little and Should be Viewed in

Context of Individual Country Experiences

5
Which Employees Are Being
Measured?
Total Public
Employment

State Owned General

Enterprises Government

Civilian Central Sub national

Armed Forces
Government Government

Education

Health

Police

6
General Civilian Government as %
of Total Employment
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8% Region
6%
4%
2%
0%
Africa Asia ECA LAC MENA OECD

7
Government Employment as %
of Total Population
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
North Africa Middle East Gulf

Central Government Subnational Education Health Military

8
Central Civilian Government Wages
as % of GDP
12

10

0
Africa Asia ECA LAC MENA OECD MIC Overall
Central Government Wages and salaries

9
Government Wage Evolution for MENA
Countries, as % of GDP, 2000-2004
20

18

16

14

12

10

0
Iran Jordan Algeria Lebanon Tunisia Morocco Kuwait

2001 2002 2003 2004

10
Public-Private Wage Ratios
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
East LAC OECD Africa MENA
Asia

11
Global Reduction in the Role and Size of the State
(Privatization Proceeds through 1996)
Eastern Europe / Central
Asia -- 19%
Sub-Saharan South Asia -- 5%
Africa -- 2%

East Asia /
Pacific -- 17%

Latin America /
Caribbean -- 54%

Middle East/
North Africa --
3%

12
Priority 2: Decentralization

"As a political phenomenon,

decentralization is widespread.
Out of the 75 developing and transition countries
with populations greater than 5 million, all but
12 claim to be embarked
on some form of transfer of political power
to local units of government.”

Source: William Dillinger, Decentralization and Its Implications

for Urban Service Delivery, 1994
13
…with Limited Impact in MENA

14
Priority 3: E-Governance

Global Index 1.62

Algeria 1.27
Yem en 1.30
Tunisia 1.36
Morocco 1.47
Libya 1.57
Om an 1.64
Egypt 1.73
Jordan 1.75
REGIONAL 1.76
Qatar 1.81
Saudi 1.86
Lebanon 2.00
Bahrain 2.04
Kuw ait 2.12
United Arab 2.17
Israel 2.26
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
Source: UNPAN Global Survey of E-Government 2002
*Primary indicators for most (144) UN Member States were developed. The measures include
Web presence; telecommunications infrastructure and human capital.
15
Priority 4: Service Delivery
For the Quality of Administration, MENA’s
‘Governance Gap’ is Small

16
But for Public Accountability, the ‘Governance Gap’
is Wider

17
The Paradox of Corruption in
MENA

18
On Paper, the Region Should
Fair Poorly…
• Strong executive branch vis-à-vis legislature and
judiciary
• Lack of independent accountability institutions
• Limited service orientation throughout the civil service
(public official vs. civil servant)
• Underdeveloped civil society
• Low transparency, with limited press freedom
• Hydrocarbon revenues and co-mingling of state and
ruler funds

19
Yet Surprisingly, the Region Fairs Better
than One Would Expect…

20
World Regional 2007 CPI 2006 CPI Confidence Surveys
Rank Rank Country Score Score Range Used
32 1 Qatar 6.00 6.00 5.4 - 6.4 4
34 2 United Arab Emirates 5.70 6.20 4.8 – 6.5 5
46 3 Bahrain 5.00 5.70 4.2 – 5.7 5
Oman 4.70 5.40 3.9 – 5.3 4
53 4 Jordan 4.70 5.30 3.8 – 5.6 7
60 6 Kuwait 4.30 4.80 3.3 – 5.1 5
61 7 Tunisia 4.20 4.60 3.4 – 4.8 6
72 8 Morocco 3.50 3.20 3.0 – 4.2 7
79 9 Saudi Arabia 3.40 3.30 2.7 – 3.9 4
Lebanon 3.00 3.60 2.2 – 3.6 4
99 10
Algeria 3.00 3.10 2.7 – 3.2 6
Djibouti 2.90 - 2.2 – 3.4 3
105 12 Egypt 2.90 3.30 2.6 – 3.3 7
Yemen 2.50 2.60 2.1 – 3.0 5
Libya 2.50 2.70 2.1 – 2.6 4
131 14 Iran 2.50 2.70 2.0 - 3.0 4
138 17 Syria 2.40 2.90 1.7 – 2.9 4
178 18 Iraq 1.50 1.90 1.3 – 1.7 4
21
- - Average Score 3.80 3.96 - -
22
Priority 5: Anticorruption
Indicators
• Strengthen regional comparative work (Global
Integrity Indicators)
• Basic Data Collection (legislative framework &
enforcement)
• Country specific surveys
• UNCAC Implementation
• Risk profile confronting civil servants

23
 Number of Corruption Cases Successfully
Prosecuted
(per 10,000 civil servants)

8.24

9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2 0.25
1
0
Hong Kong Philippines

24
 Civil Service Risk Profile: ACB vs. ICAC

25,000
Probability (1:x)
20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

ICAC
ACB

25
Why the Difference?
• Much lower rates of reporting in the Philippines
– ICAC invests heavily in public relations
– On a per capita basis, Hong Kong citizens are
over 5 times more likely to report allegations

26
 SWS Survey Data Results *
percent
September 1998
30

22.0%
20

10

1.7%
0

% of sample who have been asked for money or gift to

speed up transactions

% of those who have been asked for money or gift who

opted to report about it

27
Reasons that were given by those who have been asked
for money or gift but opted not to report the incident.

"We are concerned about retaliation", 7%

"We don't know where to report it", 13%

"Nothing would be done about it", 36%

"It's too small", 40%

(%)

0 10 20 30 40 50

28
Why the Difference?

• ICAC practices more robust triage up front,

moves forward selectively and wins
– ICAC investigates only about 50% of the
allegations it receives
– Moves forward with sanctions in about 10% of
the cases
– Wins 4 out of 5 cases it prosecutes

29
Why the Difference?

• Ombudsman practices limited triage up front,

moves forward broadly and loses
– Recently implemented initial screening
procedures
– Moves forward with sanctions in about 28% of
the cases
– At best wins about 12% of cases it prosecutes,
significant numbers overturned on appeal

30
Resources are Often a Problem

Civil Servants per Investigative Officer

GDP Adjusted Spending on Anticorruption

6,000
5,000
400
Number of Civil

4,000
Servants

350

Rs per Civil Servant

3,000 300
2,000 250
1,000 200
150
- 100
Anti Corruption ICAC 50
Bureau -
Anti Corruption ICAC
Agency Bureau
Agency

31
Priority 6: Case Studies of
Successful Reforms
• Egypt One Stop Shops for Business registration
• Morocco VRP
• Jordan reforms in policy coordination
• PFM reforms in Palestine

32
In Conclusion…
1. Accurate, up to date information on pay and
employment
2. Decentralization
3. E-governance (link w/ transparency)
4. Basic service delivery
5. Anticorruption
6. Case studies of successful reforms

33