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7 Decision Analysis
7 Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis
To accompany
Quantitative Analysis for Management, Tenth Edition,
by Render, Stair, and Hanna © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
Power Point slides created by Jeff Heyl © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
Learning Objectives
After completing this chapter, students will be able to:
STATE OF NATURE
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE
ALTERNATIVE MARKET ($) MARKET ($)
Construct a large plant 200,000 –180,000
Do nothing 0 0
Table 3.1
1. Maximax (optimistic)
2. Maximin (pessimistic)
3. Criterion of realism (Hurwicz)
4. Equally likely (Laplace)
5. Minimax regret
Table 3.2
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 3 – 12
Maximin
Used to find the alternative that maximizes
the minimum payoff
Locate the minimum payoff for each alternative
Select the alternative with the maximum
number
STATE OF NATURE
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE MINIMUM IN
ALTERNATIVE MARKET ($) MARKET ($) A ROW ($)
Construct a large
200,000 –180,000 –180,000
plant
Construct a small
100,000 –20,000 –20,000
plant
Do nothing 0 0 0
Table 3.3
Maximin
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 3 – 13
Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz)
A weighted average compromise between
optimistic and pessimistic
Select a coefficient of realism
Coefficient is between 0 and 1
A value of 1 is 100% optimistic
Compute the weighted averages for each
alternative
Select the alternative with the highest value
STATE OF NATURE
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE ROW
ALTERNATIVE MARKET ($) MARKET ($) AVERAGE ($)
Construct a large
200,000 –180,000 10,000
plant
Construct a small
100,000 –20,000 40,000
plant
Equally likely
Do nothing 0 0 0
Table 3.5
STATE OF NATURE
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE
ALTERNATIVE MARKET ($) MARKET ($)
Construct a large plant 0 180,000
Construct a small plant 100,000 20,000
Do nothing 200,000 0
Table 3.7
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 3 – 18
Minimax Regret
STATE OF NATURE
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE MAXIMUM IN
ALTERNATIVE MARKET ($) MARKET ($) A ROW ($)
Construct a large
0 180,000 180,000
plant
Construct a small
100,000 20,000 100,000
plant
Minimax
Do nothing 200,000 0 200,000
Table 3.8
STATE OF NATURE
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE
ALTERNATIVE MARKET ($) MARKET ($) EMV ($)
Construct a large
200,000 –180,000 10,000
plant
Construct a small
100,000 –20,000 40,000
plant
Do nothing 0 0 0
Probabilities 0.50 0.50
$300,000
–$200,000
Figure 3.1
Point 2:
EMV(small plant) = EMV(large plant)
$120,000 P $20,000 $380,000 P $180,000
160,000
P 0.615
260,000
–$200,000
Figure 3.1
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 3 – 33
Using Excel QM to Solve
Decision Theory Problems
Program 3.1A
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 3 – 34
Using Excel QM to Solve
Decision Theory Problems
Program 3.1B
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 3 – 35
Decision Trees
Any problem that can be presented in a
decision table can also be graphically
represented in a decision tree
Decision trees are most beneficial when a
sequence of decisions must be made
All decision trees contain decision points
or nodes and state-of-nature points or
nodes
A decision node from which one of several
alternatives may be chosen
A state-of-nature node out of which one state
of nature will occur
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 3 – 36
Five Steps to
Decision Tree Analysis
Re y (
ve
e –$190,000
5) g
tS
ga lts
tiv Lar Favorable Market (0.27)
$90,000
Small
ke
Plant –$30,000
Mt
uc
No Plant
–$10,000
nd
Co
$106,400
P –$190,000
ge
Lar $63,600 Favorable Market (0.78)
$90,000
Small
5) Unfavorable Market (0.22)
0 .4 Plant –$30,000
(
e y ts e
u rv sul abl No Plant
–$10,000
S Re vor
Su Fa –$87,400 Favorable Market (0.27)
rv $190,000
e
y
Re y (
ve
–$190,000
5) ge
tS
ga lts r $2,400
$2,400
La Favorable Market (0.27)
tiv Small $90,000
ke
Plant –$30,000
M
ct
No Plant
du
–$10,000
on
$49,200
C
P (FM) = 0.50
P (UM) = 0.50
Negative (predicts
unfavorable P (survey negative | FM) P (survey negative | UM)
market for = 0.30 = 0.80
product)
Table 3.11
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 3 – 50
Calculating Revised Probabilities
Recall Bayes’ theorem is
P ( B | A) P ( A)
P( A | B)
P ( B | A) P ( A) P ( B | A ) P ( A )
where
A, B any two events
A complement of A
(0.70)(0.50) 0.35
0.78
(0.70)(0.50) (0.20)(0.50) 0.45
(0.20)(0.50) 0.10
0.22
(0.20)(0.50) (0.70)(0.50) 0.45
POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY P(STATE OF
P(SURVEY NATURE |
STATE OF POSITIVE | STATE PRIOR JOINT SURVEY
NATURE OF NATURE) PROBABILITY PROBABILITY POSITIVE)
FM 0.70 X 0.50 = 0.35 0.35/0.45 = 0.78
UM 0.20 X 0.50 = 0.10 0.10/0.45 = 0.22
P(survey results positive) = 0.45 1.00
Table 3.12
(0.30)(0.50) 0.15
0.27
(0.30)(0.50) (0.80)(0.50) 0.55
(0.80)(0.50) 0.40
0.73
(0.80)(0.50) (0.30)(0.50) 0.55
POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY P(STATE OF
P(SURVEY NATURE |
STATE OF NEGATIVE | STATE PRIOR JOINT SURVEY
NATURE OF NATURE) PROBABILITY PROBABILITY NEGATIVE)
FM 0.30 X 0.50 = 0.15 0.15/0.55 = 0.27
UM 0.80 X 0.50 = 0.40 0.40/0.55 = 0.73
P(survey results positive) = 0.55 1.00
Table 3.13
Tails
(0.5)
(p)
Best Outcome
Utility = 1
1 (1 – p) Worst Outcome
ve
ati Utility = 0
ern
Al t
Al
ter
na
ti v
e2
Other Outcome
Utility = ?
Figure 3.7
(1 – p) = 0.20 $0
s t i n te U($0.00) = 0.0
e
Inv Esta
eal
R
Inv
es
t in
Ba
nk
$5,000
Figure 3.8
U($5,000) = p = 0.8
0.7 –
0.6 –
U ($3,000) = 0.50
Utility
0.5 –
0.4 –
0.3 –
0.2 –
0.1 – U ($0) = 0
| | | | | | | | | | |
$0 $1,000 $3,000 $5,000 $7,000 $10,000
Monetary Value
Figure 3.9
Risk
Avoider
e
nc
re
Utility
ffe
di
In
k
is
R
Risk
Seeker
Monetary Outcome
Figure 3.10
Tack Lands
1 ame Point Down (0.55)
ti ve the G –$10,000
er na ys
a
Alt rk Pl
Ma
Alt
e rn
ati
ve
2
Mark Does Not Play the Game
$0
Figure 3.11
U (–$10,000) = 0.05
U ($0) = 0.15
U ($10,000) = 0.30
0.75 –
Utility
0.50 –
0.30 –
0.25 –
0.15 –
0.05 –
0 |– | | | |
Tack Lands
1 ame Point Down (0.55)
ti ve the G 0.05
er na ys
a
Alt rk Pl
Ma
Alt
e rn
ati
ve
2
Don’t Play
0.15
Figure 3.13