METEOROLOGY

METEOROLOGY is the study of the atmosphere, atmospheric phenomena,

and atmospheric effects on our weather or state of atmosphere and
forecasting the weather.

Climate is the prevalent long term weather conditions in a particular area.

Weather is state of atmosphere for the location in that time.

WEATHER FORECASTING is the result of the use of technology and science

(meteorology) in order to use the collected data on the state of the
atmosphere to predict weather conditions in a particular area. It is not a
simple task. It is very complex since atmospheric variables can constantly
change in a matter of hours and it is affected by multiple variables and
weather elements, which are different depending of location. In order to
monitor what is happening in atmosphere and predict weather and it
evolution the best are the GOES satellite (Geostationary Operational
Environmental Satellite).
ATMOSPHERE
The atmosphere is the gaseous layer of the physical environment that
surrounds a planet.
Earth’s atmosphere is roughly 100 to 125 kilometers thick. Gravity keeps the
atmosphere from expanding much farther.
An atmosphere is a layer or a set of layers of gases surrounding a planet or
other material body, that is held in place by the gravity of that body.
Earth's atmosphere is composed of about 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and one
percent other gases.

The atmosphere consists of 5 layers:

1. Troposphere: 0 to 12 km (0 to 7 miles)
2. Stratosphere: 12 to 50 km (7 to 31 miles)
3. Mesosphere: 50 to 80 km (31 to 50 miles)
4. Thermosphere: 80 to 700 km (50 to 440 miles)
5. Exosphere: 700 to 10,000 km (440 to 6,200 miles)
WEATHER AND WEATHER ELEMENTS

The weather consists of the 5 weather elements:

1. Temperature
2. Atmospheric pressure
3. Wind
4. Humidity,
5. Cloudiness and Precipitation
(Also we can add visibility which depend of above factors and sunshine
duration).

Together, these components describe the weather at any given time. For
measuring elements we need instruments.

Definition and Instruments for ground meteorological measurements

Ground-based meteorological observations are the oldest and most classical of
the atmospheric diagnostic methods. They make it possible to reach direct
physical parameters, such as temperature, pressure, wind, precipitation…
METEOROLOGICAL INSTRUMENTS
One of the main tasks of meteorology is to forecast the weather in the future.
In order to be able to make any weather forecast, we need to know the
weather at some particular point in time. This claim starts from the fact that
TIME is the state of the atmosphere at some point and in some area; and the
future state will always depend on the past. Modern weather forecasting is
almost exclusively based on numerical models that simulate the behavior of
the atmosphere in time. The methods used to calculate the future state of the
atmosphere depending on the past are based on differential equations of
state, which are calculated using powerful computers in forecasting centers
around the world. The most famous of them are certainly the system for
forecasting the entire globe - GFS, or a model for forecasting local scales such
as Aladdin. The input parameters of such forecasts (variables) are
meteorological elements that are read at meteorological stations around the
world.
The accuracy of such models depends on many factors. Namely, even with
ideal input parameters (eg exact temperature to 5 decimal places, etc.), due to
the famous chaos theory, when the atmosphere stops following the
deterministic mode of behavior, all models fall into the water and weather
forecast is then impossible.
Fortunately, the atmosphere follows the deterministic regime quite well 10 days
in advance (sometimes more, sometimes less), so the forecast through such
models is extremely appreciative. However, the accuracy of the model will be
significantly affected by the accuracy of the input parameters. Errors in the
input parameters are expensive, so that at the moment when the atmosphere
is on the verge of a deterministic regime (on average about a week in advance,
or even less), one wrong input parameter leads the prognostic model in the
wrong direction, and then the forecast it would be called "completely full". It is
therefore important that the instruments we use to measure the state of the
atmosphere are as accurate as possible, and that the observer who “reads”
them (if not automated reading) does his job as conscientiously as he can.

INSTRUMENTS FOR GROUND METEOROLOGICAL MEASUREMENTS

SI-System (The International System of Units) is a global standard for

expressing the magnitudes or quantities of important natural phenomena like
temperature, pressure, humidity....
AIR TEMPERATURE
Temperature is the degree of heating of a substance. In this case, that
substance is a mixture of gases we call air. The unit for measuring
temperature in the SI system is Kelvin (K), however, for measuring and
expressing temperature, it is common to use the unit Celsius degree, or
Fahrenheit degree on the American continent. The relationship between
kelvins and degrees Celsius is given by the expression
T (K) = 273.15 + t (° C).

The device we use to measure air temperature is called a thermometer. In

addition to the thermometer, a thermograph is also used.
The thermometer displays the current temperature and the thermograph
records it over time on paper or electronic media. Thermometers used for
meteorological purposes are:
- ordinary (dry);- in combination with ordinary,
- a wet thermometer is used to determine humidity;
- minimum and maximum (commonly called extreme thermometers).
An ordinary (dry) thermometer measures the air temperature on a Celsius
scale. It is filled with mercury that expands freely in a vacuum tube depending
on its temperature. Thus, the thermometer does not actually measure the air
temperature, but the temperature of the mercury in the tube, but the
mercury temperature adjusts very quickly and monitors the air temperature,
provided it is not directly heated by radiation from various sources such as the
sun, soil and the like. Its scale is divided into whole degrees Celsius, and
sometimes into smaller units, such as tenths of a degree.
A minimal thermometer monitors the air temperature as it drops; the
moment it starts to grow, it stops at the lowest measured value. In this way, it
records the minimum temperature reached during the day (standard between
07h the previous day and 07h of the day in question).
It is filled with alcohol, and the minimum temperature is recorded by means
of a small stick which the alcohol pulls towards a lower temperature as it falls;
when the temperature begins to rise, the alcohol passes by the wand and it
remains at the minimum value reached. The maximum thermometer monitors
the temperature of the air as it rises; at the moment when it starts to decline,
it remains at the highest reached value, and thus records the maximum daily
temperature (standard between 21h of the previous day and 21h of the
respective day). It is filled with mercury and works on the principle of
bursting threads of mercury in the fold above the tank, the moment it begins
to decline. Such a thermometer you all have at home to measure body
temperature.The thermograph constantly measures the air temperature over
time, and records the measured data on paper or electronic medium,
depending on the performance. A classic thermograph has a drum on which
paper is wound; the drum rotates around its axis by means of a clockwork
mechanism, and a handle with a pen and ink slides along it, leaving a mark
indicating the measured temperature. It is generally less accurate than a
regular thermometer. Electronic thermographs record the temperature in
memory. Like all other electronic thermometers, they have a sensing element
that can work on several principles (thermoresistor, galvanic cell, etc.). Their
accuracy is most often questionable, so they are not used for serious
measurements. Temperature on the ground is usually 2-3, and even more
degrees Celsius lower than the one at 2m, due to the strong night cooling of
the soil.
By default, air temperature is measured at 2 meters above the ground, in a place
that is shielded from direct sunlight or any other thermal radiation (eg long-wave
from the Earth's surface).
Also, the thermometer must not be exposed to direct wind. The best place to
provide these conditions is a thermometric house (shelter).The minimum air
temperature, in addition to 2 meters in height, is also measured at 5 centimeters
This difference is more pronounced over land than at sea, on clear nights, and in
valleys. It also depends a lot on the type of soil (stronger over stone than over
grass and the like). It significantly depends on the wind speed, the higher it is,
the smaller the difference. Temperature at 5cm height is important due to the
appearance of frost.

HUMIDITY
Humidity can be expressed in several ways; eg as relative humidity (most
often), then as absolute humidity, mixing ratio, water vapor pressure and some
more. All these humidity can be determined by the same instruments, except
that the process of obtaining one value from another is, of course, different. We
will limit ourselves to measuring relative humidity only. The unit by which
relative humidity is expressed is the percentage (%). A psychrometer is used to
simultaneously determine air temperature and humidity.
It consists of an ordinary (dry) thermometer and a wet one, to which the
reservoir with mercury is wet with a damp cloth. If the air is not saturated with
water vapor, water evaporates from the cloth, consuming latent heat; the
consequence is a lowering of the wet bulb temperature. The less moisture in
the air, the stronger the evaporation, and the greater the difference between a
wet and a dry bulb thermometer. From the readings of these two
thermometers, by entering the tables, or by calculating the formulas, all the
above-mentioned humidity and dew point temperature are obtained. It should
be noted that if there is ice on the cloth and not water, recalculated tables or
formulas should be used. In addition to psychrometers, hygrometers can also
be used to determine humidity. They directly measure relative humidity, and
work on the principle of absorbing moisture of organic substances (human or
horse hair, etc.) which, by changing the humidity of the air, change the length
somewhat. A hygrograph is an instrument that records relative humidity over
time and records it on paper or electronic media.
Relative humidity (RH) May be defined as the ratio of the water vapour
density (mass per unit volume) to the saturation water vapour density,
usually expressed in percentage.
RH =Actual vapour density / Saturation Vapour Density x 100%
WIND
Wind is a vector quantity, which is completely determined only when we
know both its components - direction and speed. The direction of the wind is
the side of the horizon from where the wind blows, and velocity is the path of
air particles traversed in a unit of time [or as physicists would say, the first
derivation of the path in time ;-)]. The direction is indicated by the cardinal
sides of the world or by azimuth (in degrees 0 to 360), while the speed is
measured in meters per second (m / s), kilometers per hour (km / h), knots
(kn) or some other permitted unit for speed. In the absence of a
speedometer, it is estimated by the Beaufort scale (more precisely, the wind
strength is estimated).
The direction of the wind is determined by the windmill. It is a light arrow-
shaped indicator, mounted on a vertical axis that rotates freely around its axis.
To direct the arrow towards the wind, it has a vertical plate on the back, which
serves as a "rudder". Wind speed is measured with an anemometer
(anemometer). There are several performances, and we will describe the most
commonly used. It is a vertical axis with 3 or 4 hollow hemispheres (Robinson's
cross) that rotate under the influence of the wind. The stronger the wind, the
faster they spin and the rotation is easily converted into a mechanical or
electrical equivalent, calibrated in wind speed units. Instead of hemispheres, a
small propeller is sometimes used.
The average wind speed over a period of time (usually 2 or 10 minutes), or the
current one, can be measured. The measurement is standardly performed at a
height of 10 meters above the ground.The anemograph measures the wind
speed in time and records the measured data on paper or stores them in
electronic form.

SOLAR RADIATION
The sun, like any other body, emits a certain spectrum of electromagnetic
radiation, which depends on its temperature. The higher it is, the more the
spectrum shifts toward higher frequencies. However, for the purposes of
meteorology, two quantities are measured from solar radiation: the duration
of the insolation of a point on the Earth's surface in a certain period of time
(day, month, year), and the energy that arrives from the Sun to a certain
surface in a certain period of time.The duration of insolation is expressed in
hours (h) and is measured by an instrument called a heliograph.
It is an instrument that has a spherical lens; it glows the paper strip, and in this
way, the time of the heliograph's insolation is read on the burned parts of the
strip.The energy received by a certain surface from the Sun is usually measured
by a pyranograph or pyradiograph, and is expressed, for example, in joules per
square meter in one hour (J / m² / h).
CLOUDS A cloud is a visible aggregate of tiny water droplets and/or ice
crystals suspended in the atmosphere (the droplets are so small and light
that they can float in the air).
Cloud s Latin Root Eng. Translation Symbol Weather bringing
Cumulus Heap CU Light showers
Stratus Layer ST Low clouds/fog
Cirrus Curl of hair CI High level clouds
Nimbus Rain NB Rain
Stratocumulus SC Mainly fair
Towering cumulus TCU Moderate showers
Cumulo nimbus CB Thunderstorms
Altocumulus AC Middle level cloud
Altostratus AS Middle level cloud
Cirrostratus CS High level cloud
Classification identifies clouds by height of cloud base (ceiling).

Low-Level Clouds
Low-level clouds include: nimbostratus and stratocumulus. Low clouds are of
mostly composed of water droplets since their bases generally lie below
2,000 meters. However, when temperatures are cold enough, these clouds
may also contain ice particles and snow.

Mid-Level Clouds
Mid-level clouds include: altocumulus, altostratus. The base of mid-level
clouds typically appears between 2,000 to 6,000 meters. Because of their
lower altitudes, they are composed primarily of water droplets; however,
they can also be composed of ice crystals when temperatures are cold
enough.

High-Level clouds
High-level clouds include: cirrus and cirrostratus. The base is over 6000
meters are typically thin and white in appearance, but can appear in a
magnificent array of colours when the sun is low on the horizon.
Vertically developed clouds
Vertically developed clouds include: fair weather cumulus and bad weather
cumulonimbus. Mostly are generated through either thermal convection or
frontal lifting. These clouds can reach heights in excess of 12,000 meters,
releasing incredible amounts of energy through the condensation of water
vapour within the cloud itself.

Other Cloud Types

Mammatus, Pileus... Recognised by shape.

Celling is the cloud height above the ground or water of the base of the
lowest layer of cloud below 6000 meters covering more than half the sky. In
the same time can be few layers of clouds.
• Scattered clouds (SCT) from 1/10 to 5/10 sky covered.
• Overcast (OVC) 10/10 sky is covered by a layer of clouds based at upper
level.
• Broken clouds (BC) from 6/10 to 9/10 sky covered. These are a sign that
the storm is passing.
• In meteorology, an okta (part of 8) is a unit of measurement used to
describe the amount of cloud cover at any given location such as a
weather station.
PRECIPITATION
Precipitation is measured by the height or amount of water sediment that falls
on the Earth's surface over a period of time.
This precipitation can be in liquid or solid state; if measured by height then it is
usually expressed in millimeters (rain) or centimeters (snow). If measured in
quantity, then it is expressed in liters per square meter of surface area, a unit
equivalent to millimeters of sediment height. This means, for example, 10
mm = 10 l / m2. The amount of snowfall is measured only by height. The
oncoming rain is measured with a rain gauge. It is usually a cylindrical vessel,
set upright, with an opening at the top, measuring 200 cm². Rain enters
through this opening, which flows into a bucket at the bottom. There is an
enclosed air space around the bucket for thermal insulation to prevent the
accumulated rain from evaporating. When reading, water is discharged from
the can into a beaker with a scale in millimeters and its quantity is read.
The rain gauge is usually placed on a pole, at a height of 1 meter above the
ground. In addition to the amount of rain, its intensity can also be measured.
Rain intensity is expressed in millimeters per minute (mm / min). It is measured
with an instrument called an ombrograph. Snow height is measured with a stick
calibrated in centimeters falling in the last 24hours.
The States of Water (Solid, liquid, gas)
• Rain
Rain is liquid water droplets that fall from the atmosphere, having diameters
greater than drizzle (0.5 mm). Shower is precipitation that is intermittent, both
in time, space or intensity
• Snow
Frozen precipitation composed of ice particles in complex hexagonal patterns.
Snow forms in cold clouds by the direct transfer of water vapour to ice.
• Hail
Precipitation in the form of balls or irregular lumps of ice produced by liquid
precipitation, freezing and being coated by layers of ice
• Blizzard
A blizzard described as a severe storm that lasts three or more hours
• Water in form as gas is called water vapour.
• Dew point
It is the temperature to which the air must be cooled for water vapour to
condense and form fog or clouds.
Fog
Fog is water that has condensed close to ground level, producing a cloud of
very small droplets that reduces visibility. Fog is defined as a cloud at ground
level, and occurs when air is cooled to its dew point and below
Steam Fog “Steam fog”, also called “evaporation fog”, It forms when cold air
moves over relatively much warmer water. When this occurs, water from the
water's surface evaporates and water vapor is added to the colder air. The
cold air then saturates quickly and fog forms
Radiation fog
It forms by the cooling of land after sunset by thermal radiation in calm
conditions with clear sky
Advection fog
It occurs when warm moist air passes over a cool surface by advection (wind)
and is cooled. It is common as a warm front passes over an area with
significant snow-pack. It is most common at sea when moist air encounters
cooler waters, including areas of cold water upwelling
Ice fog
Forms in very low temperatures can be the result of other mechanisms
mentioned here, as well as the exhalation of moist warm air by herds of
animals

Precipitation fog (or frontal fog)

Forms as precipitation falls into drier air below the cloud, the liquid droplets
evaporate into water vapour. The water vapour cools and at the dew point it
condenses and fog forms.

Mist
Consists of microscopic water droplets suspended in the air, which produces a
thin greyish veil over the landscape. It reduces visibility to a lesser extent than
fog

Haze
Haze is fine dust or salt particles in the air that reduce visibility. This is a
slightly different phenomenon which is a suspension of extremely small, dry
particles in the air (not water droplets)
PRESSURE AND WIND
In the figure below, the pressure on unit area increases as the weight of the
air above it increases. The same can be said about decreasing pressure, where
the pressure on unit area decreases if the weight of the air above it also
decreases. Atmospheric pressure is measured with an instrument called a
"barometer", which is why atmospheric pressure is also referred to as
barometric pressure and unit is Hectopascal (hPa). 1 hPa = 100 P (Pascal) = 1
millibar = 0.7500616827 mmHg. Average sea-level pressure is 1013.25 mbar
(1013.25 hPa / 29.921 inch Hg / 760.00 mmHg.

Sea Surface
• Atmospheric pressure is defined as the force per unit area exerted
against a surface by the weight of the air above that surface
(Atmospheric Pressure is weight of the air per unit). With altitude we
have smaller pressure.
• Variations in pressure between two location lead to the development of
winds. This module explains the pressure gradient and Coriolis forces
and their role in generating wind.

Pressure Gradient Force (directed from high to low pressure)

The pressure gradient results in a net force that is directed from high to low
pressure and this force is called the "pressure gradient force".
The Coriolis force
Coriolis force is the apparent deflection of objects due to the earth's
rotation
Coriolis force is an inertial force that seems to act on objects that are in
motion. Its effect is caused by the rotation of the Earth from west to east and
the inertia of the mass experiencing the effect. This force causes moving
objects on the surface of the Earth to deflect to the right in the Northern
Hemisphere and to the left in the Southern hemisphere.

The quantity of deflection of the air is directly related to both the speed at
which the air is moving and its latitude.
Therefore, slowly blowing winds will be deflected only in a small amount,
while stronger winds will be deflected more.
Likewise, winds blowing closer to the poles will be deflected more than winds
at the same speed closer to the equator due to Coriolis force which is zero at
the equator.
As air moves from high to low pressure in the northern
hemisphere, it is deflected to the right by the Coriolis force.

In the southern hemisphere, air moving from high to low

pressure is deflected to the left by the Coriolis force.

Buys Ballot law fo determine location of LOW PRESSURE:

face the wind and low is approximately 110 degrees on your
left side. Reverse on southern hemisphere.
Winds near the surface and effect of friction
Wind is affected by friction. Geostrophic wind blows parallel to the isobars
because the Coriolis force and pressure gradient force are in balance. As we
know, that the actual wind is not always geostrophic. The surface of the
Earth applies frictional drag on the air blowing just above it. This friction
can act to change the wind's direction and slow it down.
Above 2000 meters and over calm sea surface is pretty smooth, so the wind
blowing over it does not move up, down, and around any
features. Winds almost always follow a geostrophic pattern, where they are
balanced between the pressure gradient and the Coriolis force.

Definition
Gust - It is a sudden brief increase in wind speed. Generally the duration is
less than 20 seconds and the fluctuation greater than 10 knots per hour.
Sustained wind - The average wind speed over a relatively long period of
time.
Wind direction - Is direction from which the wind blows.
Wind speed is measured on 10 and 50 metres above sea surface
Trough and Ridge
A trough is an elongated (extended) region of relatively low
atmospheric pressure, often associated with front. On weather chart it is
represented by a bold line extended from a low pressure centre or between
two low pressure centres. All are associated with increasing cloud and risk of
precipitation.
A ridge is an elongated region of relatively high atmospheric pressure, the
opposite of a trough.
Convergence and divergence
The terms are usually used to refer specifically to the horizontal inflow
(convergence) in specific region or outflow (divergence) of air from specific
region. The convergence of horizontal winds causes air to rise, and the
divergence of horizontal winds causes downward motion of the air. As the
air rises, the water vapour cools and eventually condenses into cloud droplets
and we have precipitation. Because of this, low pressure centres are
generally associated with clouds, precipitation, and what we call "bad
weather."
Divergence occurs when horizontal winds cause a net outflow of air from a
region (more air leaving a vertical column of air than entering), while
convergence occurs when horizontal winds cause a net inflow of air into a
region (more air entering a vertical column than leaving it).

Diffluence is a pattern of wind flow in which air moves outward (in a "fan-
out" pattern) away from a central axis that is oriented parallel to the general
direction of the flow.
Mean sea level pressure (MSLP)
It is the surface pressure reduced to sea level. When barometers in the home
are set to match the local weather reports, they measure pressure adjusted
to sea level, not the actual local atmospheric pressure. Wind speed is roughly
proportional to the distance between isobars: so closely packed isobars mean
strong winds, and vice versa.

500hPa Geopotential Height

On average this level is around 5.5 km above sea level, and it is often referred to
as a steering level, because the weather systems beneath, near to the Earth's
surface, roughly move in the same direction as the winds at the 500 hPa level.

Weather Chart or Weather Map

Weather charts show the surface pressure pattern using isobars (lines of equal
pressure) and indicate areas of high (H) and low pressure (L) along with their
central pressure value. Fronts are also displayed.
This is a map showing the state of the weather over a large area. Weather
charts are the fundamental basis for weather analysis and forecasts. They are
based on the data collected by weather stations on the ground and on the data
recorded at high altitudes by radio sondes and satellites.
Veering and backing winds

Veering Winds
Winds which shift in a clockwise direction with time at a given location (e.g.,
from southerly to westerly), or which change direction in a clockwise sense

Backing winds
Winds which shift in a counter clockwise direction with time at a given
location (e.g. from southerly to south-easterly), or change direction in a
counter clockwise sense.
Air Masses
Air masses cover many hundreds or thousands of square kilometres, and adapt
to the characteristics of the surface below them. They are classified according
to latitude and their continental or maritime source regions. Colder air masses
are named as polar or arctic, while warmer air masses are consider as tropical
and maritime. Continental air masses are dry while maritime air masses are
moist. Weather fronts separate air masses with different density (temperature
and/or moisture) characteristics. Once an air mass moves out of its source
region, it is change as it encounters surface conditions different than those
found in the source region.

Fronts or the boundaries between air masses

A weather front is a boundary separating two masses of air of different
densities, and is the principal cause of meteorological phenomena outside the
tropics. On weather charts, fronts are depicted using various coloured triangles
and half-circles, depending on the type of front. Depending on the air
masses involved and which way the front moves, front can be warm, cold,
stationary or occluded.
Stationary Front or stalled front
is front between warm and cold air masses that is moving very slowly
or not at all. Clouds and precipitations are usually associated. Once this
boundary resumes its forward motion, it once again becomes a warm or
cold front. A stationary front is represented by alternating blue and red lines
with blue triangles pointing towards the warmer air and red semicircles
pointing towards the colder air.

Cold Front
A cold front is defined as the leading edge of a cooler mass of air, replacing
at ground level a warmer mass of air, which lies within a fairly sharp
surface trough of low pressure. Also, a cold front is defined as the transition
zone where a cold air mass is replacing a warmer air mass.
Warm Front
Is
front along which an advancing mass of warm air rises over a mass of cold air.
A warm front is defined as the transition zone where a warm air mass is
replacing a cold air mass. Warm fronts generally move from southwest to
northeast and the air behind a warm front is warmer and moister than the air
ahead of it.
Occluded Front (when a cold front overtakes a warm front and merges)
An occluded front is formed during the process of cyclogenesis when a
cold front overtakes a warm front. Occluded fronts usually form around mature
low pressure areas. When this occurs, the warm air is separated (occluded)
from the cyclone centre at the Earth's surface.
The triple point is the point where the warm front and the cold front meet (and
consequently the nearest location of warm air to the centre of the cyclone) and
developing third frond called occluded.
WEATHER FORECASTING
Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future weather based
on past and present data and most commonly by analysis of trends. Weather
forecasting is the application of current technology and science to predict the
state of the atmosphere for a future time and a given location. Weather
forecasts are made by collecting as much data as possible about the current
state of the atmosphere (particularly the temperature, humidity and wind)
and using understanding of atmospheric processes to determine how the
atmosphere will evolve in the future.
Forecast system models for oceans and seas
To produce a weather forecast we need to model the
dynamics of the atmosphere and the physical processes that occur, such as
the formation of clouds, and the other processes in the Earth system that
influence the weather such as atmospheric composition, the
marine environment and land processes.
The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction
system containing a global computer model and variotional analysis run by
the United States' National Weather Service (NWS) and NOAA's. The
horizontal resolution is about 13 km in Europe, and 7 km in USA and South
Africa.
The Integrated Forecast System (IFS) is an operational global
meteorological forecasting model. IFS is developed and maintained by the
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
ECMWF is one European model
NAVGEN – The Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) is a global
numerical weather prediction computer simulation run by the United States
Navy
JMA – (Japan Meteorological Agency) model

Anticyclone or high pressure area or “high” (H) (bringing fair weather)

 It is a large-scale circulation of winds around a central region of high
atmospheric pressure, clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, counter
clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. Effects of surface-based anticyclones
include clearing skies as well as cooler, drier air.

Depression or low pressure area, or "low" (L) (bringing bad weather)

A low-pressure area, low, or depression is a region on the topographic map

where the atmospheric pressure is lower than that of surrounding locations and
is represented on a weather map by a red "L". Low-pressure systems form
under areas of wind divergence that occur in the upper levels of the
troposphere.
Effects of Frontal Lifting
Frontal lifting is the term for the process represented on a front when
the inclined surface represents the boundary between two air masses of
different densities. If there is sufficient moisture in the air and a forcing
mechanism like when a cold front is approaching the area, then there is an
increased probability that precipitation will occur. Clouds and precipitation are
formed by the upward motion of air and condensation.
Effects of Cloud Cover on forecasted temperatures
During the day, the earth is heated by the sun. If skies are clear, more heat
reaches the earth's surface.
If skies are cloudy, some of the sun's rays are reflected off the cloud particles
back into space. Therefore, less of the sun's energy is able to reach the earth's
surface, which causes the earth to heat up more slowly. When forecasting
daytime temperatures, if cloudy skies are expected, forecast lower
temperatures than you would predict if clear skies were expected. At night
cloud cover has the opposite effect. If skies are clear, heat emitted from the
earth's surface freely escapes into space, resulting in colder temperatures.
When forecasting night-time temperatures, if cloudy skies are expected,
forecast warmer temperatures that the clear sky.
Convection: The transfer of heat within the air by its movement. The term is
used specifically to describe vertical transport of heat and moisture, especially
by updrafts and downdrafts in an unstable atmosphere.
Evaporation: The process of a liquid changing into a vapour or gas.
Diurnal temperature: It is the range of the Earth’s temperature from low to
high during one day.
Inversion: An increase in temperature with height. It is the reverse of the
normal cooling with height in the atmosphere. Temperature inversions trap
atmospheric pollutants in the lower troposphere, resulting in higher
concentrations of pollutants at ground levels than would usually be
experienced.

Sea temperature ranges compared with land is smaller.

First sign sea freezing is oily appearance

Jet stream
Strong winds concentrated within a narrow band in the upper atmosphere. It
normally refers to horizontal, high-altitude winds. The jet stream often "steers"
surface features such as front and low pressure systems.
Atmospheric rivers
are relatively long, narrow regions in the atmosphere – like rivers in the sky –
that transport most of the water vapor outside of the tropics.
Atmospheric rivers are concentrated streams of water vapor about 100 to 250
miles wide in the middle and lower levels of the atmosphere.
Results show that atmospheric rivers are formed by the cold front which sweeps
up water vapour in the warm sector as it catches up with the warm front. This
causes a narrow band of high water vapour content to form ahead of the cold
front at the base of the warm conveyor belt airflow.
Those that contain the largest amount of water vapor with little movement can
lead to extreme flooding.

Like hurricanes, atmospheric rivers are measured in categories: The benefits of

Category 1 and 2 atmospheric rivers outweigh the potential hazards, while
Category 3 atmospheric rivers are a balance of hazardous and helpful. Category
4 atmospheric rivers are "mostly hazardous," but can be beneficial, while
Category 5 rivers, the most severe, are "primarily hazardous,"
Cyclone
In meteorology, a cyclone is a large scale air mass that rotates around a strong
centre of low atmospheric pressure rotating in the same direction as the Earth.
Cyclones are characterized by inward spiralling winds that rotate about a zone
of low pressure counter clockwise in the Northern hemisphere and clockwise in
the Southern hemisphere.
The largest low-pressure systems are polar vortices and extratropical cyclones of
the largest scale (the synoptic scale).

Extratropical cyclone
The "extratropical cyclones" also are described as "mid-latitude cyclones" due to
their area of formation, or "post-tropical cyclones" where extra-tropical
transition has occurred, and are often described as "depressions" or "lows. Mid-
latitude cyclogeneses is a low pressure weather system that has neither tropical
neither polar characteristics, being connected with fronts and horizontal
gradients in temperature and dew point otherwise known as "baroclinic zones".
Usually on Northern hemisphere tropical cyclone convert into extratropical
when passes 35º North.
Stages of development of an extratropical cyclone
Bomb cyclone
It is the term given to storms that typically form in winter when a mid-latitude
cyclone undergoes “rapid strengthening” of at least 24 millibars, over a 24-
hour period. The cyclone is pulling in a narrow but concentrated feed of tropical
moisture, called an atmospheric river. Sometimes, bomb cyclones behave like
conventional winter storms. But sometimes they produce heavy flooding,
blizzard conditions and wind speeds comparable to a Category 1 hurricane.
Weather routing
It is a method within ship routing that is used to avoid rough weather and to find
the minimal fuel, time or cost route between ports. Several methods and different
software exit and are available to the ship owner or vessel. Ship weather
routing develops an optimum track for ocean voyages based on forecasts of
weather, sea conditions, and a ship's individual characteristics for a particular
transit within specified limits of weather and sea.
Pilot or routing chart for oceans
Essential for use in passage planning for ocean voyages, Routeing Charts include
informations as routes and distances between major ports, ocean currents, ice
limits and load lines. They also contain expected meteorological and
oceanographic conditions for each month of the year.
Information including wind roses showing wind speed and direction, the
frequency and intensity of storms and low pressure, ocean currents, sea and air
temperatures, air pressure and ice limits based on data averages.
Each charted area contains 12 separate charts for each calendar month, covering
meteorological and oceanographic conditions that change throughout the year.
SEVERE WEATHER
The term severe weather is generally used to describe significant weather
occurrences which develop during strong to severe thunderstorm, tropical
cyclones, or extra tropical cyclones.
The term severe weather also refers to dangerous meteorological or hydro-
meteorological phenomena, of varying duration, with risk of causing major
damage, serious social disruption and loss of human life, requiring measures for
minimizing loss, mitigation and avoidance, and requiring detailed information
about the phenomena (location, area or region affected, time, duration,
intensity and evolution) to be distributed as soon as possible to the public and
responsible authorities.
Thunderstorms
A thunderstorm, also known as an electrical storm, lightning storm, or
thundershower, is a storm characterized by the presence of lightning and its
acoustic effect on the Earth's atmosphere, known as
thunder. Thunderstorms occur in association with a type of cloud known as a
cumulonimbus.
Types of Thunderstorms (single cell, multicell clusters, multicell lines and
supercells)
Thunderstorm structure
Updraft
Is a small‐scale current of rising air, often within a cloud. A mass of warm air will
typically be less dense than the surrounding region, and so will rise until it
reaches air that is either warmer or less dense than itself. The converse will
occur for a mass of cool air, and is known as subsidence. This movement of large
volumes of air, especially when regions of hot, wet air rise, can create large
clouds, and is the central source of thunderstorms. Drafts can also be conceived
by low or high pressure regions.
Downdraft
It is a column of generally cool air that rapidly sinks to the ground, usually
accompanied by precipitation as in a shower or thunderstorm.
Microburst
Is a small downdraft and moves in a way opposite to a tornado. Microbursts are
found in strong thunderstorms.
Downburst
A downburst is an area of strong, downward moving air associated with a
downdraft from a thunderstorm. As the downdraft impacts the ground, the air is
forced outwards in all directions while it also curls backwards.
Thunderstorm structure
Tornadoes - violently rotating columns of air
A tornado is defined as a violently rotating column of air in contact with the
ground and pendent from a cumulonimbus cloud. Tornadoes are the most
violent of all atmospheric storms. They can be categorized as "weak", "strong",
and "violent"; with weak tornadoes often having a thin, rope-like appearance.
Waterspout is an intense columnar vortex (usually appearing as a funnel-
shaped cloud) that occurs over a body of water.

Tornado Waterspout
Polar Vortex
"Polar vortex" is a meteorological term that describes the big mass of cold air that
constantly hovers around the Arctic, by counter clockwise flow that helps keep the
colder air near Poles and occasionally it weakens (breaking down). When that
happens it moves like Arctic cold front south and circulates in mid-latitude.
Usually, we look at the polar vortex in the stratosphere at the 10mb level.
That is around 28-32km altitude. This altitude is considered to be in the middle
stratosphere and is thus a good representation of the general dynamics of the
polar vortex.
Tropical Cyclone – (HURRICANES/TYPHOONS/CYCLONES)
Tropical storms are intense depressions occurring in tropical latitudes
accompanied by high winds and heavy seas, the wind blows around the centre
in a spiral movement inwards, anticlockwise in the northern and clockwise in
the Southern hemisphre.
Hurricanes are tropical cyclones that develop over the warm tropical waters
and have sustained winds in excess of 64 knots. These storms are capable of
producing dangerous winds, torrential rains and flooding, all of which may
result in tremendous property damage and loss of life in coastal populations.
The Saffir-Simpsone Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 ratting based on a
Hurricanes sustained wind speed.

Structure of Tropical cyclone

Eye: Sinking air in the centre of the storm forms calm, partly cloudy or clear sky
that can be 20–40 Nm across.
Eye Wall: Thunderstorm surroundings the eye; strongest the wind.
Rainbands: Thunderstorms and clouds that spiral outward from the centre; spin
counter-clockwise in the northern hemisphere.
Requirements for tropical cyclone formation
There are six main requirements for tropical cyclogenesis:
1. Sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures
2. Atmospheric instability
3. High humidity in the lower to middle levels of the troposphere
4. Enough Coriolis force to develop a low pressure centre
5. A pre-existing low level focus or disturbance
6. Low vertical wind shear.
These conditions are necessary for tropical cyclone formation, but they do
not guarantee that tropical cyclone will form.
Trade winds
Persistent tropical winds that blow from the subtropical high pressure centres
towards the equatorial low. They are north-easterly in the northern hemisphere
and south-easterly in southern hemisphere. The high pressure controls the
strength of the trade winds. When weaker winds blow over the ocean, it
decreases evaporation at the surface and allows ocean temperatures to warm
rapidly.
Also partly to blame may be a decrease in seasonal Saharan dust blowing over
the Atlantic, which has allowed more sunlight to reach the water. Typically,
warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic more fuel hurricanes.

Ocean temperature
Normally, an ocean temperature of at least 26.5°/27°C spanning through at
least a 50-metre depth is considered the minimum to maintain the special
mesocyclone that is the tropical cyclone. Warm waters are needed to maintain
the warm core that fuels tropical systems.

Coriolis force
A minimum distance of 300 Nm from the equator is normally needed for
tropical cyclogenesis.
The Coriolis force imparts rotation on the flow and arises as winds begin to flow
in toward the lower pressure created by the pre-existing disturbance. In areas
with a very small or non-existent Coriolis Force.

Vertical Wind Shear – change winds speed with height

Vertical shear interacts dynamically with thunderstorms to either enhance or
diminish vertical draft strengths. Vertical wind shear is the second critical factor
in the determination of thunderstorm type and potential storm severity. Wind
shear, sometimes referred to as wind gradient, is a difference in wind speed
and/or direction over a relatively short distance in the atmosphere.
Atmospheric wind shear is normally described as either vertical or horizontal
wind shear. Vertical wind shear is a change in wind speed or direction with
change in altitude. Horizontal wind shear is a change in wind speed with change
in lateral position for a given altitude.

Weak vertical wind shear

Vertical wind shear of less than 20 knots between the surface and the
tropopause is required for tropical cyclone development. Strong wind shear can
"blow" the tropical cyclone apart, as it displaces the mid-level warm core from
the surface circulation and dries out the mid-levels of the troposphere, stall
development.
Tropical cyclones interaction with El Niño
In general, warm El Niño events are characterized by more tropical storms
and hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and a decrease in the Atlantic, Gulf of
Mexico.
La Niña and El Niño are natural phenomena in the tropical Pacific Ocean; La
Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures, while El Niño
brings warmer-than-average temperatures. Both have major influence
weather across the globe.
El Niño Years
El Niño means "little boy" in Spanish language. El Niño is a phenomenon
where ocean surface temperatures become warmer than normal in the
equatorial Pacific. El Niño events usually occur every three to seven years,
and are related to shifts in global weather patterns. The wind patterns are
aligned in such a way that the vertical wind shear is increased over the
Caribbean and Atlantic. The increased wind shear helps to prevent tropical
disturbances from developing into hurricanes, because latent heat is
distributed to larger area.
During El Niño years stronger winds blow in desert Sahara which rise sand
dust up to 3000 to 4000 m and makes barrier that evaporation from the
ocean cannot reach higher altitude and stop process necessary for
developing tropical disturbances and depression. In the eastern Pacific, the
wind patterns are altered in such a way to reduce the wind shear in the
atmosphere, contributing to more storms.

La Niña Years
La Nina means "little girl" in Spanish language. It results in cooler-than-
normal waters in the Pacific Ocean.
Stages of Development of Tropical Disturbance, Tropical Depression, Storm
and Hurricane
1. It starts as a tropical wave, a westward-moving area of low air pressure.
2. As the warm, moist air over the ocean rises in the low air pressure area,
cold air from above replaces it. This produces strong gusty winds, heavy rain
and thunderclouds that is called a tropical disturbance.
3. As the air pressure drops and there are sustained winds up to 31 knots per
hour, it is called a tropical depression.
4. When the cyclonic winds have sustained speeds from 34 to 64 knots per
hour, it is called a tropical storm (storms are given names when they begin
to have winds of this speed).
5. The storm becomes a hurricane when there are sustained winds of over 64
knots per hour.

Tropical Wave in the trade winds (NE) in the Atlantic Ocean-areas of converging
winds that move slowly along the same track as the prevailing wind creates
instabilities in the atmosphere that may lead to the formation of tropical
depression and later storm or hurricane. The high pressure in region twenthies
North controls the strength of the trade winds. When weaker winds blow over
the ocean, it decreases evaporation at the surface and allows ocean
temperatures to warm rapidly. Warmer ocean temperatures more fuels
hurricanes.
Tropical Disturbance
A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection,
generally 200 to 600 km (100 to 300 Nm) in diameter, originating in the tropics
or subtropics, having a non-frontal migratory character, and maintaining its
identity for 24 hours or more.
Tropical Depression (TD)
A tropical depression is designated when the first appearance of a lowered
pressure and organized circulation in the centre of the thunderstorm complex
occurs. A surface pressure chart will reveal at least one closed isobar to reflect
this lowering. When viewed from a satellite, tropical depressions appear to have
little organization.
Tropical Storm (TS)
Once a tropical depression has strengthened to the point where its maximum
sustained winds are between 35-64 knots, it becomes a tropical storm.
During this time, the storm itself becomes more organized and begins to
become more circular in shape -- resembling a hurricane.
Hurricanes and Typhoons
The only difference between a hurricane, a cyclone, and a typhoon is the location
where the storm occurs. Hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons are all the same
weather phenomenon; we just use different names for these storms in different
places. In the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific, the term “hurricane” is used.
Hurricanes are also rated according to their wind speed on the
Saffir-Simpson scale 1 to 5.
Hurricane IR photo from satellite and forecasted track
Fujiwhar’s effect
The Fujiwhara effect, sometimes referred to as Fujiwhara
interaction or binary interaction, is when two nearby cyclonic vortices orbit
each other and close the distance between the circulations of their
corresponding low-pressure areas (colliding and merge).

Path of hurricane
The path of a hurricane greatly depends upon the wind belt in which it is
located. A hurricane originating in the eastern tropical Atlantic, for example,
is driven westward by easterly trade winds in the tropics. Eventually, these
storms turn north-westward around the subtropical high and migrate into
higher latitudes.
TROPICAL STORM PREPAREDNESS
Preparedness overview
The hurricane preparedness plan shall be a written plan and should address as
appropriate the following mooring specific items:
1. Ballasting operations
2. Mooring line pay-out and/or tension adjustments to optimize the
mooring’s storm survivability
3. Engaging storm survival brakes and stoppers or securing
4. Optimum mooring pattern and positions to maximize mooring
performance
5. Provision of sufficient battery power, computer disc storage space, etc., to
ensure that critical systems
6. Confirmation that towing bridles or lines, navigation aids, and position
tracking devices are installed and functional.
7. The tropical storm preparedness plan should also include a schedule that
reflects the time required to complete necessary mooring activities,
operations to secure the well and the MODU, evacuate the crew to a safe
location and allow for some contingency time.
General procedures in the case of tropical storm
In order to reduce the potential risk to the personnel, rig and the well, certain
operation have to be completed before all personnel are evacuated as:
1. Planning and preparation
2. Secure the well
3. Secure the rig and cargo
4. Complete the evacuation
5. Deballast the rig to the survival draft (storm condition).

Phase and procedures:

1. GREEN Phase I:
Severe storm is more than 72 hours far – normal operation.
2. BLUE Phase II:
Severe storm is 72 to 48 hours far – Determine safe deck loading for survival
condition and assess
3. YELLOW Phase III:
Severe storm is 48 to 36 hours far – Secure well Evacuate non-essential
personnel to the completion of Phase III. Cease drilling. Bottom up. Prepare to
pull LMPR package and riser. If testing, abort all testing immediately. Secure
the well to keep under control – continue with well kill.
4. RED Phase IV:
Severe storm is 36 to 18 hours far – If previous phase has been completed
then during phase IV the riser will be displaced with seawater and the LMRP
disconnected after ensuring the pipe rams and blind/shear rams are closed.
Retrieve the LMRP and risers. Ensure balance of anchors line tensions.
Deballast rig to survival draft and continue with evacuation of personnel.
Helicopter should be planned for Phase V. – complete evacuation.
5. PURPLE Phase V:
Complete evacuation of remaining personnel
Example of Plan of Activitiesand Duration for Secure and Abandon the Rig
1 – 2 – 3 RULE OF AND TROPICAL CYCLONE AVOIDANCE
NAVIGATION IN TROPICAL STORM AND AVOIDING CENTRE
Northern Hemisphere
In case that the wind is veering, the vessel is likely to be in the dangerous
semicircle. The vessel should proceed with maximum speed keeping the wind
at 10° to 45°, on the starboard bow (depending on the speed). The vessel
should turn to starboard as the wind veers.
In case that the wind direction is steady or backing, such that the vessel is in
the navigable semicircle, the wind must be brought well on the starboard
quarter and vessel should proceed with maximum speed. Turn to port as the
wind veers.

Left or less dangerous semicircle:

Bring the wind on the starboard quarter (135° relative), hold course and make
as much way as possible. If necessary, heave to with stern to the sea.

Right or dangerous semicircle:

Bring the wind on the starboard bow (045° relative), hold course and make as
much way as possible. If necessary, heave to with head to the sea.

.
On storm track, ahead of centre:
Bring the wind on the starboard quarter about 160° relative, hold course and
make as much way as possible. When well within the less dangerous
semicircle, manoeuvre as indicated above.

On storm track, behind centre:

Avoid the centre by the best practicable course, keeping in mind the tendency
of tropical cyclones to curve northward and eastward.

Similar for avoiding storm in Norther Hemisphere we have also for Southern
Hemisphere.

Global winds
The global wind pattern is also known as the "general circulation" and the
surface winds of each hemisphere are divided into three wind belts:
Polar Easterlies: From 60-90 degrees latitude.
Prevailing Westerlies: From 30-60 degrees latitude (aka Westerlies).
Tropical Easterlies: From 0-30 degrees’ latitude (aka Trade Winds).
The easterly trade winds of both hemispheres converge at an area near the
equator called the "Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)".
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
The region where the north-easterly and south-easterly trade winds
converge, forming an often continuous band of clouds or thunderstorms near
the equator, producing a narrow band of clouds and thunderstorms that
encircle portions of the globe.
WAVES
There are three categories of the waves:
Longitudinal wave *s - Movement of the particles are parallel to the motion of
the energy.
Transverse wave *s - movement of the particles are at right angles
(perpendicular) to the motion of the energy. ...
Surface wave *s - particles travel in a circular motion.
Waves and formation
Five factors influence the formation of wind waves:
Wind speed
Distance of open water that the wind has blown over (called the fetch)
Width of area affected by fetch
Time duration the wind has blown over a given area
Water depth
All of these factors work together to determine the size of wind waves. The
greater each of the variables is, the larger the waves are. Waves are
characterized by:
Wave height (from through to crest)
Wavelength (from crest to crest)
Period (time interval between arrival of consecutive crests at a stationary point)
Wave propagation – direction moving.
Wave frequency: the number of waves that pass a fixed point in a given
amount of time.
Wind waves
Wind waves or wind-generated waves, are surface waves that occur on the
free surface of bodies of water. They result from the wind blowing over an
area of fluid surface. Waves in the oceans can travel thousands of miles
before reaching land. Wind waves on Earth range in size from small ripples, to
waves over 30 m high. Wave height in open ocean depend of fetch (distance
wind blows).

Swell
These waves that move away from their source are known as swell. A swell,
in the context of an ocean or sea, is a series of waves that propagate along
the interface between water and air. These series of surface waves are not
generated by the immediate local wind, instead by distant weather systems,
where wind blows for duration of time over a fetch of water.

Crossing waves
A cross sea or a cross swell is a great illustration of the behaviour of waves.
Winds in large weather systems build up a series of waves on the ocean
surface. If the wind change direction or if those waves run into waves from a
Rogue waves (also known as Freak waves, monster waves, episodic waves)
are large, unexpected and suddenly appearing surface waves that can be
extremely dangerous, even to large ships. Rogue waves present considerable
danger for several reasons: they are rare, unpredictable, may appear suddenly
or without warning, and can impact with tremendous force. In oceanography,
rogue waves are more precisely defined as waves whose height is more than
twice the significant wave height, which is itself defined as the mean of the
largest third of waves in a wave record.
Wave Height: is elevation from the trough (the lowest point) to the
peak/crest (the highest point).
Significant wave height: Significant wave height is the average of the
highest one-third (33%) of waves measured from through to crest that
occur in given period.
Wave length: Distance between two crests or two troughs.
Wave Amplitude: is the vertical distance between a peak or a valley and
the equilibrium point.
Frequency: is the number of wave cycles passing a point per unit time.
CURRENTS

Wind Driven Current is a near surface current caused bz local wind. It reach
significant values only in strong winds. Its speed is about 2-3 % of the surface
wind speed.
Tidal Current is due to variation in astronomical tide. It decreases gradually
with the increase of depth of the water and decreases rapidly near the sea
floor.

Current Direction is toward which the current flows.

SOLAS CHAPTER V – SAFETY OF NAVIGATION
Regulation 4 - Navigational warnings
Each Contracting Government shall take all steps necessary to ensure that,
when intelligence of any dangers is received from whatever reliable source, it
shall be promptly brought to the knowledge of those concerned and
communicated to other interested Governments.
Regulation 5 - Meteorological services and warnings
Regulation 34 - Safe navigation and avoidance of dangerous situations
WWNWS (The World-Wide Navigational Warning Service) is a co-ordinated
global service for the promulgation of navigational warnings. WWNWS is
established through the joint efforts of the International Hydrographic
Organization (IHO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO). These
navigational warnings form part of the Maritime Safety Information (MSI) and
are broadcasted via NAVTEX and Safety NET (broadcasts which cover all the
waters of the globe except for Sea Area A4 (Polar Area)
Navigational warnings are of three types:
• NAVAREA warnings,
• Coastal warnings,
• Local warnings.
Under NAVAREA system the world's oceans are divided into 16 areas, called
NAVAREAs and identified by Roman numerals. WMO uses the same areas for
their meteorological warnings.