INDIA AND

THE NON-
PROLIFERAT
ION TREATY:
AN ANALYSIS
Alphy Joseph
222701030
SNIT (GEO 709)
DGIR, MAHE
22 November 2023
 Despite being one of the initiators of the
discourse on nuclear non-proliferation, India
did not sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty in
1968.
India's stance against the NPT was
Introduction rooted in self-interest and its belief in non-
discriminatory disarmament.

Therefore, an analysis of India's strategy and

negotiations during the signing of the
NPT becomes important.
Survey of Literature

• India’s motivations to go nuclear are a mix of reason and passion, long-

term planning, and short-term pressures (Ollapally, 2001).
• Its decision not to sign the NPT despite taking part in negotiations was a difficult
one, reached after the conclusion that signing the treaty would adversely affect
Indian security especially because neither the US nor USSR appeared willing to
provide any form of extended deterrence cover for India’s security (Rajagopalan,
2010).
• The instruction to maintain the established idealist positions without blocking NPT's
passage, nor engaging in disruptive polemics that might hamper the process or
affect relations with the superpowers is a historic example of astute statecraft
practiced by India's politico-bureaucratic leadership (Kumar, 2020).
 Objectives

To understand the context of

NPT negotiations;

To provide a conceptual
analysis of India’s strategy and
negotiation process; and

To determine the factors that

shaped India’s nuclear choices
during NPT negotiations.
 Research Methodology
• The study is descriptive in nature and analytical in
approach.
• The study uses qualitative analysis.
• The method of triangulation has been incorporated.
• The study uses both primary and secondary
sources.
• Concepts of bargaining and negotiation such as
'ZOPA', 'BATNA', 'linkage strategy', 'integrative and
distributive bargaining', 'value claiming', 'value
creation' and 'reference and reservation points'
have been used to analyse India's negotiation
process.
Concepts of Bargaining and Negotiation
Distributive Bargaining
• In this type of bargaining, the
parties involved typically see the
negotiation as a zero-sum game,
where one side's gain is the other
side's loss.
• The goal is to claim as much value
as possible for oneself while
conceding as little as possible to
the other party.
Integrative Bargaining
• In integrative bargaining, the
parties aim to create value and
enlarge the pie rather than
merely distributing it.
• They seek mutually beneficial
solutions through cooperation
and creative problem-solving.
Continued...

Value Claiming Value Creation Reference Point

• This involves the process • This is about expanding
of negotiating for and the overall value
securing one's share of available in a negotiation
the available value in the by identifying
negotiation. opportunities for
• It is often associated mutually beneficial
with distributive outcomes.
bargaining. • It is associated with
integrative bargaining.
• It is the point from which
negotiators measure
gains and losses.
• It can be their initial
position or an
external benchmark.
Continued...
Reservation Point

• This is the minimum acceptable outcome for a negotiator.

• If the negotiated agreement falls below this point, the negotiator may choose to walk away from the deal.

Linkage Strategy

• Linkage strategy involves connecting different issues or elements in a negotiation to gain leverage.

BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement)

• BATNA is the alternative course of action a negotiator can take if the current negotiation fails.
• It helps determine when to accept or reject an offer.

ZOPA (Zone of Possible Agreement)

• ZOPA is the range within which a mutually acceptable agreement can be reached.
• It is the overlap between the parties' acceptable outcomes.
Research Findings
Context of Non-Proliferation Treaty Negotiations

Cold War

1962 - India at the Eighteen Nation • "Proliferation" enters the nuclear security discourse
Disarmament Committee (ENDC)

1964 - China's Nuclear Tests

India's approach • Disarmament as an end goal of non-proliferation

1965 - Drafts presented by US and USSR

were opposed by India and others
Continued...
12 June 1968 – Draft
Eight-Nation Joint
New drafts presented 1968 – UNGA Treaty adopted in
Memorandum – non-
by US and USSR Resolution 2373 UNGA through
discriminatory NPT
Resolution 2723 (XXII)

Differences in
Security guarantees
UNGA Resolution positions of nuclear
would indefinitely
2028 (XX) and non-nuclear
delay the NPT
weapon states

Wedge between
non-nuclear
weapon states
India's Strategy and Negotiation Process
India's framing of the NPT decision was a multifaceted process

Balance between national interest, disarmament objectives and evolving

geopolitical landscape

Homi Bhabha's ideas regarding "vertical" and "horizontal" proliferation

India's decision to reject NPT was taken before the presentation of joint US-
USSR draft
 Continued...
Six-pronged approach

• Proactive strategy
• Need to express objections
• Maintain a firm stance
• Avoiding commitments
• Subdued diplomatic tone
• Cautious handling of the China factor

Highlighting the discriminatory aspect of NPT

• Class of nuclear haves and have nots

 A Conceptual Analysis of India's Non-
Proliferation Treaty Negotiations

Distributive • India's early decision to not cede its nuclear ambitions and compromise its
national security
Bargaining
Integrative • Careful handling of the China factor without over emphasising the threat
• Avoiding acrimony and a polemical tone against nuclear weapon states
Bargaining
Value claming and • India's decision to reject the NPT draft and keep its nuclear option open
• India's distinction between "horizontal" and "vertical" proliferation while
Value creation bringing out the discriminatory aspect of the NPT
 Linkage Strategy

• Non-proliferation linked to disarmament

• Larger secuirty concerns linked to non-proliferation and
questioning of security assurances based on it

BATNA (Best Alternative to Negotiated Agreement)

• Preservation of India's nuclear option

ZOPA (Zone of Possible Agreement)

Continued... • Based on the three elements of non-discrimination, nuclear
sovereignty and security guarantee
• Boundaries within which India was willing to negotiate

Reservation and Reference Point

• India's distinction between vertical and horizontal proliferation

reflected its concerns about nuclear sovereignty
• Ensuring a non-discriminatory treaty
Factors that shaped India's
Nuclear Choices
• Economic
o Dependence on foreign economic assistance
o Vision for a self-reliant India - nuclear option would support
India's economic growth
• Political
o Nuclear weapons were seen as a means to secure national
interest by India's political leadership
o Survival plus in a hostile security environment
o Non-aligned stance – autonomy in decisions
• Military
o India's border clashes with China in 1962 and China's
nuclear tests in 1964
Conclusion
• The NPT negotiations took place in the backdrop of Cold War tensions between US and
USSR and saw India adopt an evolving posture to secure its national interest amid
security considerations.
• India adopted a six-pronged approach as part of its proactive strategy during NPT
negotiations.
• An analysis of India's negotiations highilights India's strategy which relied on a
combination of distributive and integrative bargaining, value claiming and value
creation, reference and reservation points and ZOPA and BATNA.
• India's nuclear choices during NPT negotiations were influenced by economic, political
and military factors.
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