Hypothesis

Fayyaz Ahmed
PhD Scholar NIP, QAU
Meaning and Definition

• Hypothesis is the pre -thought or primary idea on which any reassert work is based or to be
conducted.
• In general, hypo means below or sub, and thesis is research work. This word is derived from
Latin term hypothesis which gives the meaning of ‘to put under’ or ‘to suppose’.
• Some defines hypothesis as tentative statements
Meaning and Definition

• As per Merriam Webster Dictionary a hypothesis is-

• - an assumption or concession made for the sake of argument,
• -an interpretation of a practical situation or condition taken as the ground for action,
• -a tentative assumption made in order to draw out and test its logical or empirical
consequences,
• - the antecedent clause of a conditional statement .
• Actually, every hypothesis is a suggestive answer to the problem identified( topic of
research ).
Types of Hypothesis

• The most common forms of hypotheses are-

1. Simple Hypothesis
2. Complex Hypothesis
3. Null Hypothesis (Denoted by Ho)
4. Alternative Hypothesis (Denoted by H1)
5. Composite hypothesis
6. Directional hypothesis
7. Non directional hypothesis
8. Logical Hypothesis
9. Empirical Hypothesis
10. Statistical Hypothesis.
11. Associative hypothesis
12. Causal hypothesis
Simple hypothesis

• A simple hypothesis is a hypothesis that predicts a correlation between two test variables: an
independent and a dependent variable.
• This is the easiest and most straightforward type of hypothesis. You simply need to state an
expected correlation between the dependent variable and the independent variable.
• Examples:

Are carpenters more liberal than plumbers? Carpenters are more liberal than plumbers.

Do dogs eat more in summer than winter? Dogs do eat more in summer than winter.
 Complex Hypothesis

• A complex hypothesis is a hypothesis that contains multiple variables, making the hypothesis
more specific but also harder to prove.
• You can have multiple independent and dependent variables in this hypothesis.
• Examples
Do (1) age and (2) weight affect chances of getting (1) Age and (2) weight increase your chances of
(3) diabetes and (4) heart disease? getting (3) diabetes and (4) heart disease.

• In the above example, we have multiple independent and dependent variables:

• Independent variables: Age and weight.
• Dependent variables: diabetes and heart disease.
Null hypothesis

• A null hypothesis will predict that there will be no significant relationship between the two test
variables.
• For example, you can say that “The study will show that there is no correlation between
marriage and happiness.”

Are Canadians better drivers than Americans? Nationality has no effect on driving ability.
Alternative Hypothesis

• An alternative hypothesis is a hypothesis that is anything other than the null hypothesis. It will
disprove the null hypothesis.
• We use the symbol HA or H1 to denote an alternative hypothesis.
• The null and alternative hypotheses are usually used together. We will say the null hypothesis
is the case where a relationship between two variables is non-existent. The alternative
hypothesis is the case where there is a relationship between those two variables.
• We can have two hypotheses here:
• Null hypothesis (H0): “Eating oatmeal before an exam does not impact test scores.”
• Alternative hypothesis (HA): “Eating oatmeal before an exam does impact test scores.”
Composite Hypothesis

• A composite hypothesis is a hypothesis that does not predict the exact parameters, distribution,
or range of the dependent variable.
• We assume that something will happen, but we’re not exactly sure what. In these cases, we
might say: “23 year old men are not on average 189cm tall.”
Directional Hypothesis

• A directional hypothesis makes a prediction about the positivity or negativity of the effect of
an intervention prior to the test being conducted.

Universal Basic Income puts

Does a Universal Basic Income
upward pressure on retail worker
influence retail worker wages?
wages.
Non-Directional Hypothesis

• A non-directional hypothesis does not specify the predicted direction (e.g. positivity or
negativity) of the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable.
• A non-directional hypothesis is similar to composite and alternative hypotheses. All three types
of hypothesis tend to make predictions without defining a direction. In a composite hypothesis,
a specific prediction is not made (although a general direction may be indicated, so the overlap
is not complete). For an alternative hypothesis, you often predict that the even will be anything
but the null hypothesis, which means it could be more or less than H0 (or in other words, non-
directional).
• Example
Does a Universal Basic Income Universal Basic Income will
influence retail worker wages? affect retail worker wages.
Logical Hypothesis

• A logical hypothesis is a hypothesis that cannot be tested, but has some logical basis
underpinning our assumptions.
• These are most commonly used in philosophy because philosophical questions are often
untestable and therefore we must rely on our logic to formulate logical theories.
• Here are some examples:
• Before the 1980s, it was hypothesized that the Titanic came to its resting place at 41° N and 49° W, based on the
time the ship sank and the ship’s presumed path across the Atlantic Ocean. However, due to the depth of the
ocean, it was impossible to test. Thus, the hypothesis was simply a logical hypothesis.
Empirical Hypothesis

• An empirical hypothesis is the opposite of a logical hypothesis. It is a hypothesis that is

currently being tested using scientific analysis. We can also call this a ‘working hypothesis’.
• Here are some examples:
• Raising the wage of restaurant servers increases staff retention.
• Adding 1 lb of corn per day to cows’ diets decreases their lifespan.
Statistical Hypothesis

• A statistical hypothesis utilizes representative statistical models to draw conclusions about

broader populations.
• This type of research is necessary when it is impossible to assess every single possible case.
Imagine, for example, if you wanted to determine if men are taller than women. You would be
unable to measure the height of every man and woman on the planet. But, by conducting
sufficient random samples, you would be able to predict with high probability that the results
of your study would remain stable across the whole population.
• Lady Testing Tea. A 1935 study by Ronald Fisher involved testing a woman who believed she could tell whether
milk was added before or after water to a cup of tea. Fisher gave her 4 cups in which one randomly had milk
placed before the tea. He repeated the test 8 times. The lady was correct each time. Fisher found that she had a 1
in 70 chance of getting all 8 test correct, which is a statistically significant result.
Associative Hypothesis

• An associative hypothesis predicts that two variables are linked but does not explore whether
one variable directly impacts upon the other variable.
• Sick people in hospital. You could conduct a study hypothesizing that hospitals have more sick
people in them than other institutions in society. However, you don’t hypothesize that the
hospitals caused the sickness.
Causal Hypothesis

• A causal hypothesis predicts that two variables are not only associated, but that changes in one
variable will cause changes in another.
• A causal hypothesis is harder to prove than an associative hypothesis because the cause needs
to be definitively proven. This will often require repeating tests in controlled environments
with the researchers making manipulations to the independent variable, or the use of control
groups and placebo effects.
Question Causation Hypothesis Correlation Hypothesis
Marriage occurs at an age
Does marriage cause Marriage causes stress which
when men naturally start
baldness among men? leads to hair loss.
balding.
Sources of hypothesis

• Following are the main sources of hypothesis-

• Personal Experience
• Imagination & Thinking
• Observation
• Scientific Theory
• Previous Study
• Culture, folk wisdom, current beliefs and practices
• Analogy
• Surveys, policies, decisions, public opinions, previous researches etc.
Sources of hypothesis

• Goode and Hatt have identified the following characteristics of a Hypothesis

• Clarity
• Empiricism
• Specificity
• Related to available techniques
• Related to theories.

• Every hypothesis must concern with three elements i.e.- unit of research, variables and values.
Characteristics of hypothesis

• Goode and Hatt have identified the following characteristics of a Hypothesis

• Clarity
• Empiricism
• Specificity
• Related to available techniques
• Related to theories.

• Every hypothesis must concern with three elements i.e.- unit of research, variables and values.
Inferential Errors

• Type I and Type II error

True State of Affair

Our Decision
Null is true Null is false

Reject the null Type 1 error Correct inference

Do not reject null Correct inference Type II error