HYPOTHESIS TESTING

WHAT IS A HYPOTHESIS?
 In simple terms it is an assumption or some supposition
to be proved or disproved.
 For a researcher hypothesis is a formal question that he
intends to resolve.
 A hypothesis may be defined as a logically conjectured
relationship between two or more variables expressed
in form of a testable statement.
 A research hypothesis is a predictive statement, capable
of being tested by scientific methods, that relates an
independent variable to some dependent variable.
 It is a formal statement of expected prediction or
relationship between 2 variables.
 It gives direction to researcher to conduct his research

 It should be testable, either by experiment or

observation. For example:
 A new medicine you think might work.

 A way of teaching you think might be better.

 A new exercise that may be more effective than

traditional exercise
EXAMPLES
 Students who receive counseling will show a greater
increase in creativity than students not receiving
counseling.
 Treatment A is better than treatment B.

 Core exercises are better than traditional spinal exercises

in reducing back pain
 There will be a difference between bosu ball exercises
and balance board exercises on balance and agility in
patients with lateral ankle sprain
CHARACTERISTICS OF HYPOTHESIS:

1. Hypothesis should be clear and precise.

2. Hypothesis should be limited in scope and must be
specific. Narrower hypotheses are generally more
testable
3. Hypothesis should be stated as far as possible in most
simple terms so that the same is easily
understandable by all concerned.
4. Hypothesis should be consistent with most known
facts. it should be one which researchers accept as
being the most likely.
5. Hypothesis should be amenable to testing within a
reasonable time. One should not use even an
excellent hypothesis, if the same cannot be tested in
reasonable time for one cannot spend a life-time
collecting data to test it.
6. Hypothesis must explain the facts that gave rise to
the need for explanation. Thus hypothesis must
actually explain what it claims to explain; it should
have empirical reference.
WHAT IS A HYPOTHESIS STATEMENT?

 If you are going to propose a hypothesis, it’s customary to write a statement. Your
statement will look like this:
“If I…(do this to an independent variable)….then (this will happen to the
dependent variable).”
For example:
 If I (decrease the amount of water given to herbs) then (the herbs will increase in
size).
 If I (give patients counseling in addition to medication) then (their overall depression
scale will decrease).
 If I (give exams at noon instead of 7) then (student test scores will improve).
 If I (look in this certain location) then (I am more likely to find new species).

 A good hypothesis statement should:

 Include an “if” and “then” statement
 Include both the independent and dependent variables.
 Be testable by experiment or other scientifically sound technique.
 Be based on information in prior research (either yours or someone else’s).
TYPES

 Simple
 Complex

 Emperical

 Causal

 Associative

 Directional

 Non directional

 Null

 Research
 Simple Hypothesis
 It shows a relationship between one dependent variable
and a single independent variable. For example – If you
eat more vegetables, you will lose weight faster. Here,
eating more vegetables is an independent variable, while
losing weight is the dependent variable.
 Complex Hypothesis
 It shows the relationship between two or more dependent
variables and two or more independent variables. Eating
more vegetables and fruits leads to weight loss, glowing
skin, reduces the risk of many diseases such as heart
disease, high blood pressure and some cancers.
 Associative and Causal Hypothesis
 Associative hypothesis occurs when there is a change in
one variable resulting in a change in the other variable.
Whereas, causal hypothesis proposes a cause and effect
interaction between two or more variables.
 DIRECTIONAL & NON DIRECTIONAL
HYPOTHESIS
Non directional
 Postulate a relationship or difference but offer no indication of direction of
these relationships or differences
 If the hypothesis simply predicts that there will be a difference between the
two groups, then it is a non directional hypothesis It is non directional because
it predicts that there will be a difference but does not specify how the groups
will differ.
 Example : There is a relationship between age & job satisfaction.

Directional
 If, however, the hypothesis uses so-called comparison terms, such as
“greater,” “less,” “better,” or “worse,” then it is a directional hypothesis. It is
directional because it predicts that there will be a difference between the two
groups and it specifies how the two groups will differ.

 NULL AND RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
 Null hypothesis : Hypothesis that states a definitive, exact
relationship between two variables. It is expressed as no significant
relationship between two variables or no significant difference
between two groups. What we imply through null hypothesis is
that any difference found between two sample groups or any
relationship found between two variables based on a sample is
simply due to random sampling fluctuations and not due to any
true differences between two population groups.
 If we are to compare method A with method B about its superiority
and if we proceed on the assumption that both methods are equally
good, then this assumption is termed as the null hypothesis. The
null hypothesis is generally symbolized as Ho.
 NULL HYPOTHESIS
The null hypothesis H0 represents a theory that has been put
forward either because it is believed to be true or because it
is used as a basis for an-argthumeenBt a-

nsdchhasonootlbeen proven. For example, in a clinical trial

of a new drug, the null hypothesis might be that the new drug is no
better, on average, than the current drug. We would write
H0: there is no difference between the two drugs on an
average.
 Research Hypothesis : States the existence of
relationship between two or more variables. Framed in
favor of researcher. This is the hypothesis which the
researcher wants to prove.
 As against this, we may think that the method A is
superior or the method B is inferior, we are then stating
what is termed as alternative hypothesis. The alternative
hypothesis is generally symbolized as Ha.
WHAT IS HYPOTHESIS TESTING
 The main purpose of statistics is to test theories or results from
experiments. You’re basically testing whether your results are valid
by figuring out the odds that your results have happened by chance.
If your results may have happened by chance, the experiment won’t
be repeatable and so has little use. For example, you might have
invented a new fertilizer that you think makes plants grow 50%
faster. In order to prove your theory is true, your experiment must:
 Be repeatable.
 Be compared to a known fact about plants (in this example,
probably the average growth rate of plants without the fertilizer).
 We call this type of statistical testing a hypothesis test.
 State your null hypothesis,
 Choose what kind of test you need to perform,
 Either support or reject the null hypothesis.
 THE LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE:
 It is always some percentage (usually 5%) which should
be chosen with great care, thought and reason. 5 per cent
level of significance means that researcher is willing to
take as much as a 5 per cent risk of rejecting the null
hypothesis when it (H0) happens to be true. Thus the
significance level is the maximum value of the
probability of rejecting null hypothesis when it is true
and is usually determined in advance before testing the
hypothesis.
 MAIN PURPOSE IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING

 In hypothesis testing the main question is: whether to

accept the null hypothesis or not to accept the null
hypothesis. Procedure for hypothesis testing refers to all
those steps that we undertake for making a choice
between the two actions i.e., rejection and acceptance of
a null hypothesis.
 IMPORTANT POINTS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING

1. Making an assumption, called hypothesis, about a population

parameter.

2. Collecting sample data.

3. Calculating a sample statistic.
4. Using the sample statistic to evaluate the hypothesis (how likely is
it that our hypothesized parameter is correct. To test the validity of
our assumption we determine the difference between the
hypothesized parameter value and the sample value.)
 STEP 1: MAKING A FORMAL
STATEMENT
The step consists in making a formal statement of the
null hypothesis and also of the alternative hypothesis .
This means that hypotheses should be clearly stated
considering the nature of the research problem.
Example: If we want to see whether women are more
motivated than men.
Null hypothesis would be= Ho: µm = µw
Research Hypothesis= Ha: µm < µw
 STEP 2: SELECTING A
SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL
The hypotheses are tested on a pre-determined level of
significance and as such the same should be specified.
Generally, in practice, either 5% level or 1% level is
adopted for the purpose. The factors that affect the level
of significance are:
(a) the size of the samples;

(b) the variability of measurements within samples

(c) whether the hypothesis is directional or non-directional

In brief, the level of significance must be adequate in
the context of the purpose and nature of enquiry.
 STEP 3: DECIDING THE
DISTRIBUTION TO USE

After deciding the level of significance, the next step in

hypothesis testing is to determine the appropriate
sampling distribution. The choice generally remains
between normal distribution.
STEP 4: SELECTING A RANDOM SAMPLE AND
COMPUTING AN APPROPRIATE VALUE

Another step is to select a random sample(s) and compute an

appropriate value from the sample data concerning the test
statistic utilizing the relevant distribution. In other words, draw
a sample to furnish empirical data.
STEP 5: CHOOSE
APPROPRIATE STATISTICAL
TEST

Choose appropriate statistical test

depending upon whether data
collected are parametric or non
parametric.
STEP 6: CALCULATION OF THE
PROBABILITY

Calculate the probability that the sample

result would diverge as widely as it has
from expectations, if the null hypothesis
were in fact true.
 STEP 7: COMPARING THE PROBABILITY:
Compare the probability thus calculated with the
specified value for α the significance level. If the
calculated probability is equal to or smaller than the
specified α value (critical value) accept null hypothesis
and reject research hypothesis.
If calculated value is more than critical value accept
research hypothesis and reject null hypothesis.
The rejection region (also called a critical region) is a part of
the testing process. Specifically, it is an area of probability that
tells you if your theory (your “”hypothesis”) is probably true.

Every rejection region can be drawn on a

probability distribution. The image above
shows two-tailed rejection region. It’s also
possible to have a rejection region in one tail
only.
 Two Tailed vs One Tailed Rejection Regions
 Which type of test is determined by your null hypothesis statement.
For example, if your statement asks “Is the average growth rate
greater than 10cm a day?” that’s a one tailed test, because you are
only interested in one direction (greater than 10cm a day). You could
also have a single rejection region for “less than”. For example, “Is
the growth rate less than 10cm a day?” A two tailed test, with two
rejection regions, would be used when you want to know if there’s a
difference in both directions (greater than and less than).

 You, as a researcher, choose the alpha level you are willing to accept.
For example, if you wanted to be 95% confident that your results are
significant, you would choose a 5% alpha level (100% – 95%). That
5% level is the rejection region. For a one tailed test, the 5% would
be in one tail. For a two tailed test, the rejection region would be in
two tails.
EXAMPLES

A principal at a certain school claims that the students in his school are above average
intelligence. A random sample of thirty students IQ scores have a mean score of
112.5. Is there sufficient evidence to support the principal’s claim? The mean
population IQ is 100 with a standard deviation of 15.
 Step 1: State the Null hypothesis. The accepted fact is that the population mean is
100, so: H0: μ=100.
 Step 2: State the Alternate Hypothesis. The claim is that the students have above
average IQ scores, so:
H1: μ > 100.
The fact that we are looking for scores “greater than” a certain point means that this is
a one-tailed test.
 Step 3: Draw a picture to help you visualize the problem.

 Step 4: State the alpha level. If you aren’t given an alpha level, use 5% (0.05).
 Step 5: Find the rejection region area (given by your alpha level above) from the
z-table. An area of .05 is equal to a z-score of 1.645.
 Step 6: Find the test statistic using this formula:
For this set of data: z= (112.5 – 100) / (15/√30) = 4.56.
 Step 6: If Step 6 is greater than Step 5, reject the null hypothesis. If it’s less than Step
5, you cannot reject the null hypothesis. In this case, it is greater (4.56 > 1.645), so
you can reject the null.
ONE SAMPLE HYPOTHESIS TESTING EXAMPLES: #3

 Blood glucose levels for obese patients have a mean of 100 with a standard
deviation of 15. A researcher thinks that a diet high in raw cornstarch will have
a positive or negative effect on blood glucose levels. A sample of 30 patients
who have tried the raw cornstarch diet have a mean glucose level of 140. Test
the hypothesis that the raw cornstarch had an effect.
 Step 1: State the null hypothesis: H0:μ=100
Step 2: State the alternate hypothesis: H1:≠100
Step 3: State your alpha level. We’ll use 0.05 for this example. As this is a two-
tailed test, split the alpha into two.
0.05/2=0.025
Step 4: Find the z-score associated with your alpha level
 Find the rejection region area (given by your alpha level above) from the
z-table. An area of .025 is equal to a z-score of 1.96
Step 5: Find the test statistic using this formula:
z = (140 – 100) / (15/√30) = 14.60.
Step 6: If Step 5 is less than -1.96 or greater than 1.96 (Step 3),
reject the null hypothesis. In this case, it is greater, so you can reject the null.
 Type I and Type II Errors

Population Condition

H0 True H0 False
Conclusion (m < 12) (m > 12)

Accept H0 Correct
Type II Error
(Conclude m < 12) Decision

Reject H0 Correct
Type I Error Decision
(Conclude m > 12)
 TYPE I ERROR
 In testing hypothesis we can make two types of errors.
 Type I error : Rejection of hypothesis which should
have been accepted. Denoted by α (alpha) error.
Probability of type I error is determined in advance and
is called level of significance of testing of hypothesis. If
type I error is fixed at 5%, or if we set alpha at 0.05 we
are saying that we will accept 5% error, which means
that if the study were to be conducted 100 times, we
would expect significant results in 95 studies, and non-
significant results in 5 studies. It means that there are
about 5 chances in 100 that we will reject null
hypothesis when it is true.
 Are False positive findings.
 TYPE II ERROR

 Type II error : Accepting of hypothesis which should

have been rejected. Denoted by β (beta)error.
 False negative findings.
EXAMPLES OF TYPES OF ERROR
 Rejection Regions and P-Values.
 There are two ways you can test a hypothesis: with a
p-value and with a critical value.
 P-value method: When you run a hypothesis test (for
example, a z test), the result of that test will be a p value.
The p value is a “probability value.” It’s what tells you if
your hypothesis statement is probably true or not. If the
value falls in the rejection region, it means you have
statistically significant results; You can
reject the null hypothesis. If the p-value falls outside the
rejection region, it means your results aren’t enough to
throw out the null hypothesis.
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
 A Confidence Interval is a range of values we are fairly
sure our true value lies in.

In statistics, a confidence interval (CI) is a type of estimate computed from

the statistics of the observed data. This gives a range of values for an
unknown parameter (for example, a population mean). ...
The confidence level is designated before examining the data. Most
commonly, a 95% confidence level is used.
 The confidence interval (CI) is a range of values that’s
likely to include a population value with a certain degree
of confidence. It is often expressed as a % whereby a
population mean lies between an upper and lower
interval.
Therefore, a confidence interval is simply a way to measure how well your
sample represents the population you are studying.
The probability that the confidence interval includes the true mean value
within a population is called the confidence level of the CI.