27679934 Nea Vaalavirta

27714845 Leo Xu
27714071 Keenen Witbooi
16580915 Louis van Heerden
18720935 Cameron May

Trend Impact Analysis:

Africa’s Population Boom

Understanding the World 2023 – BL2 – Team 13

Trend : Rapid Growth Rate of Population in Africa
PESTLE Dimension : Sociocultural
• Africa's population grew from 883 million in 2004 to over 1.4
billion in 2022.
• This represents an average growth rate of 2.5% per year, and
overall growth of 58%, which is the highest in the world
• The biggest drivers for the increase are
• 92% Natural (Births-Deaths) - 474 Million
• 8% Net Migration – 41 Million
• Africa has the highest fertility rate worldwide from an
average 5.2 births per woman in 2004 to 4.24 births in 2022
• Middle Africa currently has the highest average over the
18-year period at 6.01 births per woman
• Niger is the country with the highest average over the
period at 7.2 births per woman
• Southern Africa has the lowest average birthrate for the
period at 2.53 births per woman
• South Africa average over the Period 2.44 births per
woman

Understanding the World 2023 – BL2 – Team 13

Systemic effect of Africa’s population boom
on PESTEL(F) dimensions
- Argument for greater representation in international institutions and more influence in global
Political negotiations [2]
- Risk of more instability, crisis, vulnerability if not well managed [3]
- Demographic Dividend [4]
Economic - Strain and competition for resources, access to infrastructure, employment, education [5]
Sociocultural - Faster urbanisation [6]

Technological - Increased demand for technology, more digital infrastructure, need for AI and innovation [7]

- Deforestation, soil depletion, strain on biodiversity, water scarcity, more brutal climate change [8]
Environmental
[9]
- Pressure on legal institutions (courts, prisons, embassies…), needs for stronger legal protections (for
Legal
vulnerable groups), need for better access to justice [10]

- Management of wealth inequalities leading to bigger or smaller gap [11]

Financial - Birth and development of new financial centers [12]
- Growth of banking sector [13]

Understanding the World 2023 – BL2 – Team 13

Systemic effect of Africa’s population boom
on PESTEL(F) dimensions
Spheres of influence
Local
• Larger families due to reduced infant mortality [22].
• The local migration from rural areas to urban centres [16].
• Overall change in family dynamics [23].

National
• Increased reliance on remittances by national economies [24].
• Possible increase in inequality [21].
• Strain on existing infrastructure [15].

Understanding the World 2023 – BL2 – Team 13

Systemic effect of Africa’s population boom
on PESTEL(F) dimensions

ØRegional
• Increased strain on agriculture [15].
• Increased FDI by MNE's to African countries [14]
• African Union adopting principles from the EU [18].

ØGlobal
• Emigration/Migration to Developed Countries with declining fertility rates [17].
• Possible shift in global culture, demographics & religion [19].
• Possible shift of global power to certain African countries [20].

Understanding the World 2023 – BL2 – Team 13

Impact of Africa’s population boom on
education industry in Africa

GROWING DEMAND • The potential demand for basic education will

FOR EDUCATION [21] continue to grow substantially over the next three
decades across Africa

• The number of 6- to 15-year-olds will grow at

+1.8% annual average between 2020 and 2030
• growth will slow down to +1.3% between 2030-2050

• Central and West Africa are expected to

experience higher demand growth rates due to
different stages in their demographic transition
compared to the rest of Africa
Understanding the World 2023 – BL2 – Team 13
Impact and management actions
Impact Effect
• Increased demand for • Pressure on educational
education. infrastructure.
• Strain on resource • Struggle to provide adequate
resources such as teachers
and equipment.
• Increased diversity • As population grows and
becomes more diverse.
• Pressure on funding • Pressure on the government
to increase funding for
education.
• Policy development • Meeting the needs of growing
population
Understanding the World 2023 – BL2 – Team 13
Management solutions
• Private sector and
government need to invest in
infrastructure.
• Recruit and train more
teachers.
• Accept ethnicity and religion,
which can enrich society and
promote tolerance and
understanding.
• Government can collect more
tax revenue, which can be
used to fund bursaries.
• Develop policies that target
private sector to support
disadvantage students.
Thank You!

Any questions?

Understanding the World 2023 – BL2 – Team 13

References
• United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2023). Data Portal, custom data acquired via website. United Nations: New York. Available
from https://population.un.org/DataPortal/ (accessed 07 March 2023).[1]
• Daniel, R., & Virk, K. (2014). The BRICS and the Reform of Institutions of Global Governance (SOUTH AFRICA AND THE BRICS:, p. 24‑27). [2]
• Adetula, V. A. O. (s. d.). African conflicts, development and regional organisations in the post-Cold War international system : The annual Claude Ake memorial lecture :
Uppsala, Sweden 30 January 2014. [3]
• Drummond, P., Thakoor, V., & Yu, S. (s. d.). Africa Rising : Harnessing the Demographic Dividend. [4]
• Kubik, Z. (2022). The challenges of rural youth employment in Africa : A literature review. [5]
• Freire, M., Lall, S., & Leipziger, D. (2015). Africa’s Urbanization : Challenges and Opportunities. In C. Monga & J. Y. Lin (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Africa and Economics
(p. 583‑602). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199687114.013.9 [6]
• 3 ways technology can boost economic growth in Africa. (2022, february 15). World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/02/3-ways-tech-and-
innovation-can-push-africa-to-the-next-level-of-economic-growth/ [7]
• Tully, K., Sullivan, C., Weil, R., & Sanchez, P. (2015). The State of Soil Degradation in Sub-Saharan Africa : Baselines, Trajectories, and Solutions. Sustainability, 7(6), Art. 6, [8]
• Asongu, S., & Jingwa, B. (2011). Population Growth and Forest Sustainability in Africa. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2493158 [9]
• Mwambene, L., Dubin, A., & Lawson, D. (2021). Engendering access to justice for development in Sub-Saharan Africa : A study of policy, programming and implementation.
Law, Democracy and Development, 25(SPE), 1‑19. https://doi.org/10.17159/2077-4907/2020/ldd.v25.spe1 [10]
• While Poverty in Africa Has Declined, Number of Poor Has Increased. (s. d.). [Text/HTML]. World Bank. Retrieved March, 9, 2023,
from https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/publication/poverty-rising-africa-poverty-report [11]
• Cape Town closing in on top spot in Africa’s financial hubs rankings. (2022, March 29). The Mail & Guardian. https://mg.co.za/business/2022-03-29-cape-town-closing-in-on-
top-spot-in-africas-financial-hubs-rankings/ [12]
• African retail banking’s next growth frontier | McKinsey. (s. d.). Retrieved March, 9, 2023, from https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/african-
retail-bankings-next-growth-frontier[13]

Understanding the World 2023 – BL2 – Team 13

References

• Sun, I. Y. (2017). The world’s next great manufacturing center. [14]

• Hall, C., Dawson, T. P., Macdiarmid, J. I., Matthews, R. B., & Smith, P. (2017). The impact of population growth and climate change on food security
in Africa: looking ahead to 2050. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 15(2), 124–135. [15]
• Chirisa, I. (2008). Population growth and rapid urbanization in Africa: Implications for sustainability. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa,
1(2). [16]
• Ebhota, W. S., & Inambo. (2016). Electricity insufficiency in Africa: A product of inadequate manufacturing capacity. African Journal of Science,
Technology, Innovation and Development, 8(2), 197–204. [17]
• Oyeranmi, S. (2014). European Union and African Union: a study of regionalism for global integration and development. Journal for the
Advancement of Developing Economies, 3(1). [18]
• Fargues, P. (2011). International migration and Europe’s demographic challenge. [19]
• Schoeman, M. (n.d.). South Africa as an emerging power: from label to ‘status consistency’? [20]
• UNESCO. (2022). Demographics:Intensify efforts in education and training. Retrieved 10. March 2023, from
https://dakar.iiep.unesco.org/en/news/demographics-intensify-efforts-education-and-training. [21]
• Odusola, A., Mugisha, F., Workie, Y., & Reeves, W. (n.d.). Income inequality and population growth in Africa (pp. 202–218). [22]
• Kudamatsu, M. (2006). Has democratization reduced infant mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from micro data. [23]
• Smock, P. J., & Schwartz, C. R. (2020). The demography of families: a review of patterns and change. Journal of Marriage and Family, 82, 9–
34. [24]
• Ngomba, T. (2012). Beyond family remittances: assessing the prospects of alternative approaches to ‘“remittances for development”’ in Africa.
International Migration, 50(S1). [25]

Understanding the World 2023 – BL2 – Team 13

 Student Number Name & Surname Contribution %
Team Assigment 1 : 27714845 Leo Xu 100
Presentation 16580915 Louis Van Heerden 100
27714071 Keenen Witbooi 100
Blended Learning 2 27679934 Nea Vaalavirta 100
Team 13 18720935 Cameron May 100

Understanding the World 2023 – BL2 – Team 13