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Probability for
Engineers
Sixth Edition
Douglas C. Montgomery George C.
Runger
Chapter 3
Discrete Random Variables and Probability
Distributions
Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
3
Discrete
Random
Variables and
Probability
CHAPTER OUTLINE Distributions
3-1 Discrete Random 3-5 Discrete Uniform
Variables Distribution
3-2 Probability Distributions 3-6 Binomial Distribution
and 3-7 Geometric and Negative
Probability Mass Binomial Distributions
Functions 3-8 Hypergeometric
3-3 Cumulative Distribution Distribution
Functions 3-9 Poisson Distribution
3-4 Mean and Variance of a
Discrete
Chapter Random
3 Title and Outline
2
Variable Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Learning Objectives for Chapter
3
After careful study of this chapter, you should be able
to do the
following:
1. Determine probabilities from probability mass
functions and the reverse.
2. Determine probabilities and probability mass
functions from cumulative distribution functions
and the reverse.
3. Calculate means and variances for discrete random
variables.
4. Understand the assumptions for discrete
probability distributions.
5. Select an appropriate discrete probability
distribution to calculate probabilities.
6. Calculate probabilities, means and variances for
discrete probability distributions.
Chapter 3 Learning Objectives 3
Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Discrete Random Variables
Physical systems can be modeled by the
same or similar random experiments and
random variables. The distribution of the
random variable involved in each of these
common systems can be analyzed. The
results can be used in different applications
and examples.
The time to recharge the flash is Table 3-1 Camera Flash Tests
tested in three cell-phone cameras. Outcome
The probability that a camera Camera #
passes the test is 0.8, and the 1 2 3 Probability X
cameras perform independently. Pass Pass Pass 0.512 3
See Table Fail Pass Pass 0.128 2
Pass Fail Pass 0.128 2
3-1 for the sample space for the Fail Fail Pass 0.032 1
experiment and associated Pass Pass Fail 0.128 2
probabilities. For example, because Fail Pass Fail 0.032 1
the cameras are independent, the Pass Fail Fail 0.032 1
probability that the first and second Fail Fail Fail 0.008 0
1.000
cameras pass the test and the third
one fails, denoted as ppf, is
P(ppf) = (0.8)(0.8)(0.2) =
0.128
F ( x) P ( X x) f ( xi )
Symbolically, x x i
P X 2 50
850 849
49
0.003
Therefore,
F 0 P X 0 0.886
F 1 P X 1 0.997
F 2 P X 2 1.000
Figure 3-4 Cumulative Distribution
0 x0 Function
0.886 0 x 1
F ( x)
0.997 1 x 2
1 2 x
Sec 3-3 Cumulative Distribution Functions 12
Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Variance Formula
Derivations
is the definitional
formula
Here h(X) = X2
Answer:
E(X²) = X² · f(X) = 0² х 0.6561 + 1² х 0.2916 + 2² х 0.0486 + 3² х 0.036 + 4² х
0.0001
= 0.5200
f(xi) = 1/n
Answer:
Answer:
Let X denote the number of samples that contain the pollutant in the
next 18 samples analyzed. Then X is a binomial random variable with
p = 0.1 and n = 18
μ = E(X) = np
and
σ2 = V(X) = np(1-p)
σ = SD(X) = 0.6 26
Sec 3-6 Binomial Distribution
Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Geometric Distribution
• Binomial distribution has:
– Fixed number of trials.
– Random number of successes.
P(X=125) = (0.99)124(0.01) =
0.00288.
Sec 3-7 Geometric & Negative Binomial Distributions 28
Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Geometric Mean & Variance
If X is a geometric random variable
with
parameter p,
1
EX
p
and
V X
2
1 p
p2
p2
X has a x 3 2
negative binomial 3 distribution 4 with p = 0.2 and r = 3.
0.23 0.23 (0.8) 0.23 (0.8) 2
Therefore, 2 2
0.056
x n x
probability
K N Kdensity function
f x where x max 0, n K N to min K , n (3-13)
n
N
P X 45
50 700 300
x 50 x
x 46 1, 000
50
This a lengthy problem!
In Excel
0.000172 = 1 - BINOMDIST(45, 50, 0.7, TRUE)
The mean and variance of the Poisson model are the same.
If the variance of a data is much greater than the mean, then the
Poisson distribution would not be a good model for the distribution of
the random variable.
Chapter 3 Summary 48
Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.