Gambler Fallacies

Do you think you're more likely to win after a long losing streak? You may be a
victim of gambler fallacies, misconceptions that can hurt your chances of
success.
The Law of Large Numbers
The law of large numbers states that the more times an event occurs, the closer the results will be to the expected
outcome. Probability theory uses this law to calculate odds and predict outcomes of events.

Random Chance Expected Value

Many gamblers believe that a series of bad luck is Expected value is the average outcome of an event
soon to end because of some kind of inherent balance, based on probability. Wise gamblers play only when
but each event is an independent action. the expected value is positive.
Common Fallacies and Biases
The Hot-Hand Fallacy
The belief that a player who is
experiencing a successful
streak has a higher chance of
winning than they actually do.
The Monte Carlo
Fallacy
The belief that an outcome is
"due" or more likely to
happen because it hasn't
occurred in a while.
The Regression Fallacy
The belief that a results will
"even out" over time after a
series of uncommon events
(ex. good or bad hands in
poker)
How To Avoid Gambler Fallacies
1 2 3 4

Set a budget Resist sunk cost Don't chase Take a break

fallacy your losses
Set a reasonable If you're
budget and stick to If you're down, If you've lost, don't experiencing a
it. Only bet what don't try to recoup increase your bet losing streak or poor
you can afford. losses by betting size in an attempt to judgement, take a
more money. Accept recoup past losses. break, clear your
the loss and walk mind and come
away. back with a fresh
perspective.
Fatal Consequences
Gambling can lead to serious problems like addiction, depression, and even
suicide. It's important to recognize the warning signs and know when to seek
help.
House Edge and Probability
There's no such thing as "luck". Casinos always have an advantage over players, known as the house edge. This
means that the more you play, the more likely you are to lose.

Probability vs. Odds Card Counting

Probability is the likelihood that an event will happen, The practice of gaining an advantage by keeping track
while odds are the ratio of success to failure. of the cards that have been dealt and adjusting betting
accordingly. Illegal in most casinos.
Sensible Gambling
While gambling can be a fun hobby, it's important to stay in control. Sensible gambling means playing with a
budget, knowing the risks, and not letting gambling interfere with responsibilities or relationships.

1 Think twice 2 Stay sober

Before placing a bet, ask yourself if you really Never gamble under the influence of drugs or
need to make the gamble. Understand that alcohol. Impaired judgement can lead to poor
gambling is a calculated risk, not a way to get decision-making and increased risk-taking.
rich quick.
The Future of Gambling
Technology is changing the way we gamble, with mobile phones and online casinos making gambling more
accessible than ever before.

Pros Cons
• Convenience • Easier to go over budget
• Lower minimum bets • Less social interaction
• More competition and innovation • Increased risk of addiction