Or A Readings Summary 20jan2019 v10

MAINTENANCE OPTIMIZATION OF
EQUIPMENT BY LINEAR PROGRAMMING
Paper summary
1 © 2018 – Confidential
Agenda
1 Introduction
2 Proposed Method
- Recursive algorithm to compute steady state probabilities

- Markov Decision Processes & LP
3 Markov Decision Processes & LP
4 Results
Introduction
o Power equipment (transformers, circuit breakers, etc.) are subject to deterioration
o Ageing
o Continuous usage
o …
o Objective of maintenance is:

o Extend the component life-time
o Extend the mean time until the next failure
o In traditional maintenance approaches, predefined activities were carried out at regular intervals. This
approach was not cost-effective and did not extend component lifetime as much as possible.
o RCM was developed in the last few years, employing

flexible programs based on an analysis of needs and
priorities or on a study of information obtained through
predictive maintenance.
o RCM is considered heuristic
o its application requires experience
o involves time-consuming data collection
Applying Math in Maintenance Scheduling
“there are a number of case studies published which show that mathematical models are a
good means to achieve both effective and efficient maintenance”
o Markov chains have been extensively applied to the mathematical modeling of reliability and maintenance
problems
o The problem of replacement or overhaul of equipment, which deteriorates with usage, is one of the
standard applications of Markov processes
Set back deterioration
o Previous studies by one step
Deterioration
State Deterioration Minor
State maintenance State
maintenance State Random Failure
Paper Contribution
o A component/equipment with deterioration and random failure is modeled using Markov processes.
o Two types of preventive maintenance strategies,

o minor maintenance
o major maintenance
o Model is solved for the optimal values of mean times at which to perform maintenance (both minor and
major) by maximizing the availability of the component.
o Optimal maintenance policy is determined using Markov decision processes (MDPs)
o Based on expected returns, at each deterioration state the decision is made for the best choice of action:
o None
o Minor
o Major maintenance
o Thus, the optimal maintenance policy describes the action to be taken at each state and yields the
maximum expected return
o Linear Programming is utilized to implement the MDP problem and obtain an optimal maintenance policy
Agenda
1 Introduction
2 Proposed Method

4 Results
Markov Processes Model
F0 Random Failure
D1 Deterioration Failure
Dx Deterioration States
m rates
k Proportionality Constant
1/ μm Mean time to minor maintenance
1/ μm’ Mean time to major maintenance
μ0 Random failure repair completion rate
μ1 Deterioration failure repair completion rate

Agenda
1 Introduction
2 Proposed Method

4 Results
Recursive algorithm
o The values of λ0, λ1, µ0, µ1, µm, and µm1 are obtained from the past outage statistics and maintenance
practices, and they represent average values
o The steady state solution of the component model is

obtained by using the recursive approach
o Availability (m) = P1 + P2 + P3 where P1, P2, and P3 are the

steady state probabilities of the component being in
service
o The optimal values of mean time to maintenance

(minor and major) are determined by maximizing the
availability of the component
Recursive algorithm notation
**To avoid overcrowding in the figure, the states representing Poisson failure (I, j, 0) are not shown. They are reached
from the corresponding D states (i, j, 1) at a rate of λ0, and, after repair, the system transition rate to the D state where it
resided before the Poisson failure is μ . 10 © 2018 – Confidential
Recursive algorithm assumptions
Device:
o The device is continuously operating except when removed for maintenance or repair
o The device has 2 failure types: deterioration and Poisson.
o The device has a deterioration failure immediately following the completion of k stages of
deterioration.
o Poisson failure has the same constant rate or intensity in any deterioration stage.
o The device is repairable. The failure type is self announcing. The mean time to repair depends on
the failure type.
System:
o The duration of each deterioration stage has an exponential distribution with rate k.λd.
o Following deterioration failure, the device is overhauled, ie, restored to “as good as new.” The
overhaul duration is exponentially distributed.
o Poisson failure occurs at a uniform rate or intensity, independent of the deterioration stage of the
device. Minimal repair is performed. The repair duration is exponentially distributed.
o Periodically, the device is removed from operation for maintenance. For s- 1 maintenances since the
device was “as good as new”, the maintenance is minimal; maintenance s is major maintenance.
o The maintenance number is reset to 0 after a deterioration failure, but not changed after a Poisson
failure
o The time between successive maintenances is exponentially distributed.
o Both minimal and major maintenance durations are exponentially distributed. l/μm < l / μM < 1/ μk
o There are no transitions between the failure & maintenance states.
Recursive algorithm steady state equations
Recursive algorithm steady state equations (Cont’d)
o Fast solution for the equations:
o Notations
Algebraic manipulation # Steady state equations #
5.1 4.6
5.2 4.7
5.7 4.8
5.8 4.9
5.3 4.3
5.4 4.2
5.5 4.4
5.6 4.5
5.9 4.10
o Equations (5-1) to (5-9) allow the formulation of an exact recursive algorithm to determine the state
probabilities
o P(i, j, n)
o PM
o Pd
5.9 4.10
o Equations (5-1) to (5-9) allow the formulation of an exact recursive algorithm to determine the state
probabilities
o P(i, j, n)
o PM
o Pd
Equations solution steps
1. By definition A(1, 0, 1) = 1
2. Compute A(i, 0, 1) for all I using 5.3
3. Compute A(I, 0, 0) for all I using 5.1
4. Set j=1. If s=1, Compute CM & Cd using (5.7) & (5.8)
5. Compute A( 1, j, 1 ) using (5.4)
6. Compute A(I, j, 1) using (5.5)
7. Compute A(k,j,1) using (5.6)
8. Compute A(i, j, 0) and A(i, j, 2) using (5.1) & (5.2)
9. Increase j by 1. If j < s, then go to step 5; else continue
10. Compute CM & Cd using (5.7) & (5.8)
11. Compute P(1, 0, 1) using (5.9)
12. Compute P (i, j, n) = A(i, j, n).P(1, 0, 1)
o PM = CM.P(1, 0, 1)
o Pd = Cd.P(1, 0, 1) 19 © 2018 – Confidential
Equations solution (Optimization)
o The optimal solution of (4.1) ~ (4.10), for any given value of s, can be obtained by determining the value of
λm, which minimizes the unavailability of the device, or the combined costs associated with the failure and
maintenance outages.
o the optimal value of λm, λm,opt, can be determined such that U is minimized.
Agenda
1 Introduction
2 Proposed Method

4 Results
Markov Decision Processes
o At every deteriorationstage,adecisionprocessinvolvingachoicefromthreepossibleactions, namely do
nothing, do minor maintenance, and do major maintenance, is made.
o In general, an MDP comprises the following:
o State space, S = {Si | , i = 1,2,…,n}, where n is assumed to be finite;
o To be populated
Action space that defines actions that may be taken over a state space, A = {A(s) | ∀ s ϵ s}, where
A(s) is a finite set of actions defined on states.
o Probabilistic state transition function, P(i,k,j), which describes the probability of making a state
transition from any one arbitrary state i to a state jj, when an action k defined on A(i) is taken.
o Reward function (or cost function) R(i,k,j) over the problem space, which specifies an instant
reward that will be received after an action is performed (under a corresponding state transition).
These values are predicted from the cost of various maintenance activities and/or their
consequences.
o In this paper, Linear Programming is used to determine the optimal maintenance policy.
Agenda
1 Introduction
2 Proposed Method

4 Results
Results
m Mean time to random failure
To be populated
Conclusion
o The optimal maintenance policy indicates
o that in the initial level of deterioration, there is no need for preventive maintenance,
o whereas in the intermediate level of deterioration, minor maintenance is to be carried out,
To be populated
o and in the crucial level of deterioration, major maintenance is to be performed.

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MAINTENANCE OPTIMIZATION OF

EQUIPMENT BY LINEAR PROGRAMMING

- Recursive algorithm to compute steady state probabilities

3 Markov Decision Processes & LP

o Objective of maintenance is:

o RCM was developed in the last few years, employing

maintenance State Random Failure

o Two types of preventive maintenance strategies,

o Optimal maintenance policy is determined using Markov decision processes (MDPs)

- Recursive algorithm to compute steady state probabilities

3 Markov Decision Processes & LP

1/ μm Mean time to minor maintenance

1/ μm’ Mean time to major maintenance

μ0 Random failure repair completion rate

μ1 Deterioration failure repair completion rate

- Recursive algorithm to compute steady state probabilities

3 Markov Decision Processes & LP

o The steady state solution of the component model is

o Availability (m) = P1 + P2 + P3 where P1, P2, and P3 are the

o The optimal values of mean time to maintenance

2. Compute A(i, 0, 1) for all I using 5.3

3. Compute A(I, 0, 0) for all I using 5.1

4. Set j=1. If s=1, Compute CM & Cd using (5.7) & (5.8)

5. Compute A( 1, j, 1 ) using (5.4)

6. Compute A(I, j, 1) using (5.5)

7. Compute A(k,j,1) using (5.6)

8. Compute A(i, j, 0) and A(i, j, 2) using (5.1) & (5.2)

9. Increase j by 1. If j < s, then go to step 5; else continue

10. Compute CM & Cd using (5.7) & (5.8)

11. Compute P(1, 0, 1) using (5.9)

12. Compute P (i, j, n) = A(i, j, n).P(1, 0, 1)

- Recursive algorithm to compute steady state probabilities

3 Markov Decision Processes & LP

o In general, an MDP comprises the following:

o State space, S = {Si | , i = 1,2,…,n}, where n is assumed to be finite;

- Recursive algorithm to compute steady state probabilities

3 Markov Decision Processes & LP

o whereas in the intermediate level of deterioration, minor maintenance is to be carried out,

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