Prepared By:

Abegail Sato
Content
Introduction

Independent Events

Disjoint Events

General Multiplication Rule

Contingency Tables
 Introduction
◍ A probability that takes into account a given condition is called a conditional probability.
◍ To find the probability of the event B given the event A, we restrict our attention to the outcomes in
A. We then find in what fraction of those outcomes B also occurred.
◍ P(B/A) = P(A and B)/P(A) ; P(A) ≠ 0

In a group of 100 sports car buyers, 40 bought

alarm systems, 30 purchased bucket seats, and 20
purchased an alarm system and bucket seats. If a A A∩B B
car buyer chosen at random bought an alarm
system, what is the probability they also bought
bucket seats?
P(B|A) = P(A∩B) / P(A) = 0.2 / 0.4 = 0.5.
The probability that a buyer bought bucket seats, given that
they purchased an alarm system, is 50%.
 Independent Events
Two events A and B are said to be independent if the fact that one event has occurred does not
affect the probability that the other event will occur.

Let us go through an example:

A woman’s pocket contains two quarters and two nickels.

She randomly extracts one of the coins and, after looking at it, replaces it before picking a second
coin.

Q Q N N

and therefore the P(Q2) = 2/4 = 1/2 regardless of whether Q1 occurred.

 General Multiplication Rule
◍ When two events A and B are independent, we can use the multiplication rule for
independent events:
P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)
◍ General Multiplication Rule:
For any 2 events A and B : P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A)

A bag contains 10 white and 15 black balls. Two

balls are drawn in succession without
replacement. What is the probability that the first A A∩B B
is white and second is black?

P(AB) = P(A)P(B|A)
P(A) = C1/ C1 = 2/5
10 25
P(B|A) = 15C1/24C1 = 5/8
Required probability = P(AB) = P(A) P(B|A) = 1/4
 Disjoint Events
◍ Disjoint events cannot happen at the same time. A synonym for this term
is mutually exclusive.
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P ( B ) ; P(A ∩ B) = 0
◍ Disjoint events cannot be independent
◍ For example, if we flip a coin in the air and get the outcome as Head, then
again if we flip the coin but this time we get the outcome as Tail. In both Fig : Independent
cases, the occurrence of both events is independent of each other. This is
an example of independent event.
◍ However, the outcome of a single coin toss cannot be a head and a tail is
an example of disjoint event.

Fig : Disjoint
 Contingency Tables
◍ Conditional probabilities are the probability that an event occurs given that another event
has occurred.

For example,
Given that a customer is female, what is the probability she’ll purchase a Mac? What is the probability
that the purchase will be a Mac given that the customer is female?

We need to use the female/Mac cell value (87) in the numerator and the female row total in the
denominator (117).
P(A|B) denotes the conditional probability of A occurring given that B has occurred.
P(Mac|Female) = 0.744
 Conclusion
Some Real life Examples”
 The weatherman might state that your area has a
probability of rain of 40 percent. However, this fact
is conditional on many things, such as the
probability of…
 …a cold front coming to your area.
…rain clouds forming.
…another front pushing the rain clouds away.
Conclusion:
Conditional probability is defined as the
likelihood of an event or outcome
occurring, based on the occurrence of a
previous event or outcome. Conditional
probability is calculated by multiplying the
probability of the preceding event by the updated
probability of the succeeding, or conditional
event.
 REFERENCE

◍ www.investopedia.com
◍ www.wikipedia.org/conditionalprobability
◍ Engineering Mathematics Textbook