Population

Growth
Keith Calimlim BSES-4
Definition

• Population growth is the increase in

the number of people in a population
over a period.

• It is usually expressed as a
percentage of the total population.

• The rate of population growth is

affected by a few factors, including
birth rates, death rates, and
migration.
Factors Affecting
Population Growth

The rate of population growth is affected by

several factors, including:
• Birth rates: High birth rates can lead to
population growth.

• Death rates: High death rates can slow

population growth.

• Migration: Migration is the movement of

people from one place to another.
Ways to Measure
Population Growth

• Censuses: A comprehensive count of a

population conducted at a specific point
in time.

• Vital Registration Systems: Track

births, deaths, and marriages, providing
ongoing data on population changes.

• Sample Surveys: Involve collecting data

from a representative subset of the
population.
Topics to discuss:

A. Population Growth Measurement

B. Population Bomb

C. Population Momentum

D. Population Projection
Population
Growth
Measurement
Population Growth Measurement
• The population growth rate can be calculated using the following
formula:

• For example, if the population of a country was 100 million in 2010

and 110 million in 2020, then the population growth rate would be
10%.
Population
Bomb
Population Bomb

• The "population bomb" theory

suggests that rapid population
growth will lead to widespread
famine, environmental destruction,
and social unrest.
• Biologist Paul Ehrlich popularized
the term in his 1968 book of the
same name.
Population Bomb

• Ehrlich predicted that the world's

population would outstrip the planet's
ability to produce food and other
resources, leading to mass starvation.
• Ehrlich's predictions have not come to
pass due to increased agricultural
productivity, widespread family planning,
and changing world conditions.
• Despite these changes, population growth
remains a concern due to its strain on
resources and potential social and
environmental problems.
Why population bomb did
not happen
?

• Declining fertility rates: The global fertility

rate has been declining for decades, and it is
now estimated to be around 2.3 children per
woman. This is below the replacement rate of
2.1 children per woman, which means that
the world's population is eventually expected
to stabilize or even decline.
• Increased agricultural productivity: Advances
in agricultural technology, such as the
development of high-yielding crops and
fertilizers, have allowed us to produce more
food with less land and water. This has
helped to ensure that there is enough food to
feed the world's growing population.
Why population bomb did
not happen
?

• Improved access to contraception: The

availability of contraception has given
women more control over their
fertility, which has helped to reduce the
number of unintended pregnancies and
slow the rate of population growth.
• Economic development: Economic
development has been shown to lead to a
decline in fertility rates. This is because
as people become wealthier, they are
more likely to invest in education and
healthcare for their children, which leads
to smaller families.
Population
Momentum
Population Momentum

• Population momentum, also known as

population inertia, refers to the
continuation of population growth even
after fertility rates have fallen below the
replacement level.
• Population momentum occurs because a
large proportion of the population is still
of reproductive age, even if the overall
fertility rate has declined.
• As a result, the number of births
continues to exceed the number of
deaths, leading to continued population
growth.
Causes of Population
Momentum

• Age Structure: The age structure of a

population is the distribution of people by
age. A population with a large proportion
of young people will continue to grow
even if the fertility rate declines, because
there will be many women of
reproductive age.
• Fertility Rate: The fertility rate is the
average number of children born to a
woman during her lifetime. A population
with a high fertility rate will continue to
grow even if the rate declines, because
the number of births will still be
relatively high.
Population
Projection
Population Projection

• Population projections are

estimates of the future size and
composition of a population.

• They are based on assumptions

about fertility, mortality, and
migration rates.
Methods of
Population Projection

• Cohort-component method: Fertility,

mortality, and migration rates are applied
to each cohort to project their future size
and composition.
• Stochastic method: This can be done by
using probability distributions to
represent the uncertainty in fertility,
mortality, and migration rates.
• Microsimulation method: This can be
used to capture the impact of factors such
as education, income, and marital status
on fertility, mortality, and migration.
Uses of Population
Projection

• For example:
Forecasting the demand for labor: This
information can be used by businesses to
make decisions about hiring and
expansion.

Determining the need for infrastructure:

Population projections can be used to
determine the need for infrastructure,
such as roads, bridges, and schools. This
information can be used by governments
to make decisions about infrastructure
investments.
Summary:

• The population bomb was a theory predicting a

global crisis of food shortages, environmental
degradation, and social unrest due to rapid
population growth.
• Population growth measurement involves
estimating the size and composition of a
population using methods like
censuses, surveys, and population projections.
• Population momentum is the continuation of
population growth even after fertility rates fall
below the replacement level.
• Population projections are estimates of the future
size and composition of a population based on
assumptions about fertility, mortality, and
migration rates.
 References:
• Elbel, F. (n.d.). U.S. birth rates, population growth, and the environment - SUSPS.
The Material on This Page May Be Freely Used and Distributed, Except for
Trademarked Items. https://www.susps.org/overview/birthrates.html
• P. (2020, November 4). What Is Population Momentum? (The Reason Populations
Keep Growing). Population Education.
https://populationeducation.org/population-momentum-why-populations-keep-
growing/#:~:text=Population%20momentum%20occurs%20when%20a,age
%20structure%20of%20the%20population.
• Mann, C. C. (2017, December 11). The Book That Incited a Worldwide Fear of
Overpopulation. Smithsonian Magazine.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/book-incited-worldwide-fear-
overpopulation-180967499/
• F. (2022, October 25). Updates, Insights, and News from FutureLearn | Online
Learning for You. FutureLearn.
https://www.futurelearn.com/info/courses/introduction-to-environmental-
science/0/steps/270677#:~:text=Population%20Growth
%20Calculation,10%20years)%20was%2012%25.
• Definition - Population projection | Insee. (n.d.).
https://www.insee.fr/en/metadonnees/definition/c1235#:~:text=A%20population
%20projection%20gives%20a,%3A%20fertility%2C%20mortality%20and
%20migration.