Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Continuous Probability Distributions
Continuous Probability Distributions
Probability
Distributions
DIVINA ESTACIO, MScM, LPT
NATIONAL UNIVERSITY
DASMARINAS
Uniform Probability Distribution
Uniform
f (x)
f (x)
Normal
f (x) Exponential
x
x
Continuous Probability Distributions
Uniform
f (x)
f (x)
Normal
f (x) Exponential
x
x11 x22
x
x11 x22
x
x11 xx1122 x22
Uniform Probability Distribution
A random variable is uniformly distributed
whenever the probability is proportional to the
interval’s length.
The uniform probability density function is:
ff (x)
(x) == 1/(b
1/(b –– a)
a) for
for aa << xx << bb
== 00 elsewhere
elsewhere
E(x)
E(x) == (a
(a ++ b)/2
b)/2
Variance of x
Var(x)
Var(x) == (b
(b -- a)
a)22/12
/12
Uniform Probability Distribution
f(x) == 1/10
f(x) 1/10 for
for 55 << xx << 15
15
== 00 elsewhere
elsewhere
where:
x = salad plate filling weight
Uniform Probability Distribution
Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2
= (5 + 15)/2
= 10
Variance of x
Var(x) = (b - a)22/12
= (15 – 5)22/12
= 8.33
Uniform Probability Distribution
■ Uniform Probability Distribution
for Salad Plate Filling Weight
f(x)
1/10
x
0 5 10 15
Salad Weight (oz.)
Uniform Probability Distribution
f(x)
x
0 5 10 12 15
Salad Weight (oz.)
Normal Probability Distribution
■ The normal probability distribution is
the most important distribution for
describing a continuous random
variable.
It is widely used in statistical inference.
It has been used in a wide variety of
applications
including:
• Heights of people
• Test scores
• Rainfall amounts
• Scientific measurements
Normal Probability Distribution
1 ( x )2 /2 2
f (x) e
2
where:
= mean
= standard deviation
= 3.14159 = PI() (Excel)
e = 2.71828 = EXP(1) (Excel)
Characteristics
x
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
x
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
Standard Deviation s
x
Mean m
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
x
-10 0 25
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
s = 15
s = 25
x
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
.5 .5
x
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
A
A random
random variable
variable having
having aa normal
normal distribution
distribution
with
with aa mean
mean of
of 00 and
and aa standard
standard deviation
deviation of
of 11 is
is
said
said to
to have
have aa standard
standard normal
normal probability
probability
distribution.
distribution.
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
99.72%
95.44%
68.26%
m
x
m – 3s m – 1s m + 1s m + 3s
m – 2s m + 2s
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
s=1
z
0
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
x
z
NORMSINV
NORM S INV is used to compute the z value
given a cumulative probability.
z = (x - )/
= (20 - 15)/6
= .83
Area = 1 - .7967
Area = .7967
= .2033
z
0 .83
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Step
Step 3:
3: Compute
Compute the
the area
area under
under the the standard
standard normal
normal
curve
curve to
to the
the right
right of
of zz == .83.
.83.
Probability
of a stockout P(x > 20)
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Area = .9500
Area = .0500
z
0 z.05
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Step
Step 1:
1: Find
Find the z-value that
the z-value that cuts
cuts off
off an
an area
area of
of .05
.05
in
in the
the right
right tail
tail of
of the
the standard
standard normal
normal
distribution.
distribution.
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
. . . . . . . . . . .
1.5 .9332 .9345 .9357 .9370 .9382 .9394 .9406 .9418 .9429 .9441
1.6 .9452 .9463 .9474 .9484 .9495 .9505 .9515 .9525 .9535 .9545
1.7 .9554 .9564 .9573 .9582 .9591 .9599 .9608 .9616 .9625 .9633
1.8 .9641 .9649 .9656 .9664 .9671 .9678 .9686 We
.9693look up.9706
.9699
the.9756
1.9 .9713 .9719 .9726 .9732 .9738 .9744 .9750 complement
.9761 .9767
. . . . . . . . of the. tail. area .
(1 - .05 = .95)
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Step
Step 2:
2: Convert
Convert zz.05 to the corresponding value of x.
.05 to the corresponding value of x.
z = (x - )/ x = + z.05
.05
= 15 + 1.645(6)
= 24.87 or 25
NORMINV
NORMINV is is used
used to
to compute
compute the
the xx value
value given
given
aa cumulative
cumulative probability.
probability.
Using Excel to Compute
Normal Probabilities
Excel Value Worksheet
A B
1 Probabilities: Normal Distribution
2
3 P (x > 20) 0.2023
4
5 Finding x Values, Given Probabilities
6
7 x value with .05 in upper tail 24.87
8
Note: P(x > 20) = .2023 here using Excel, while our
previous manual approach using the z table yielded
.2033 due to our rounding of the z value.
Exponential Probability Distribution
where: = mean
e = 2.71828
Using Excel to Compute
Normal Probabilities
Excel Formula Worksheet
A B
1 Probabilities: Normal Distribution
2
3 P (x > 20) =1-NORMDIST(20,15,6,TRUE)
4
5 Finding x Values, Given Probabilities
6
7 x value with .05 in upper tail =NORMINV(0.95,15,6)
8
Exponential Probability Distribution
■ Cumulative Probabilities
P ( x x00 ) 1 e xxoo//
where:
x0 = some specific value of x
Using Excel to Compute
Exponential Probabilities
f(x)
.3
.2
.1
x
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time Between Successive Arrivals (mins.)
Using Excel to Compute
Exponential Probabilities
Excel Formula Worksheet
A B
1 Probabilities: Exponential Distribution
2
3 P (x < 2) =EXPONDIST(2,1/3,TRUE)
4
Using Excel to Compute
Exponential Probabilities
Excel Value Worksheet
A B
1 Probabilities: Exponential Distribution
2
3 P (x < 2) 0.4866
4
Relationship between the Poisson and Exponential
Distributions