INDUSTRIAL STATISTICS

4th Semester

Assignment 4

Group 6

Member of Group :

• LEADER : Denartha Randhika (004201900057) WA no. (089620280307)

• Arum Nillam Ismudayani (004201900061)
• Fina Dyah Setyaningrum (004201900028)
• Hazmy Sultan (004201900068)
• Najmia Latifarani (004201900033)
• Siti Hassanah Robbiatul Addabyah (004201900007)
• Sophia Margareth Tobing (004201900062)
• Trisdiyanti (004201900038)

DATE : Saturday, 14 November 2020

Jababeka Education Park, Jl. Ki Hajar Dewantara, RT.2/RW.4, Mekarmukti,

North Cikarang, Bekasi, West Java 17530
 Contribution table

NAME OF MEMBER CONTRIBUTIONS/RESPONSIBILITY

DENARTHA RANDHIKA
SOPHIA MARGARETH TOBING
NAJMIA LATIFARANI
TRISDIYANTI
HAZMY SULTAN GHIFARI
ARUM NILLAM ISMUDAYANI
FINA DYAH SETYANINGRUM
SITI HASSANAH ROBBIATUL
ADDABYAH
Resolving problem number 1
Resolving problem number 2
Resolving problem number 3
Resolving problem number 4
Resolving problem number 5
Resolving problem number 6
Resolving problem number 7
Resolving problem number 8
1. Given
p=0.05
n=15
P(X = x) = b(x; n, p) = (𝑛𝑝) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑥 , 𝑥 = 0,1, … , 15
Asked
a. 𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 2)
b. p become 0,07
Solution
a. 𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 2) =? ?
𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 2) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑥 < 2)
1

𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 2) = 1 − ∑ b(x; 15,0,05)

𝑥=0
𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 2) = 1 − 0.8290
𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 2) = 0,171
So the probability that on any given day the production process will be stopped is
0,171
b. p become 0,07
𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 1) =? ?
𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 1) = b(x; n, p), 𝑥 = 0,1, … ,15
𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 1) = b(x; 15,0,07)
𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 1) = 0.7168
So if probability of defective has increased to 0.07. the probability that on any given
day the production process will not be stopped is 0,7168.

2. The given information:

Cars Number of Randomly selected
cars cars
Fords 5 2
Chevrolets 7 3
Dodge 4 1
Honda 3 1
Toyotas 4 2
Total 23 9
The total number of cars selected is 9
The number of possible ways to draw 9 cars from 23 cars is (23
9 ) = 817190
 The number of possible ways to get 2 Fords out of 5 Fords is ( 52) = 10
The number of possible ways to get 3 Chevrolets out of 7 Chevrolets is (73 ) = 35
The number of possible ways to get 1 Dodges out of 4 Dodges is (14 ) = 4
The number of possible ways to get 1 Hondas out of 3 Hondas is (13 ) = 3
The number of possible ways to get 2 Toyotas out of 4 Toyotas is (42 ) = 6
Therefore, the required probability is :
( 52)(73 )(41 )(31 )(42 )
P= (23
9 )

10.35.4.3.6
= 817190

= 0.0308
So, we get required probability is 0.0308
3. Given : Probability of a success in each trial is p = 5% = 0,05
N = 15 and p = 0,05
Answer : probability mass function of X is :
𝑃 (𝑋 = 𝑥 ) = 𝑏(𝑥: 15.0,05). Where x = 0,1,2,………15
15
= ( 𝑥 ) (0,05)x(1 − 0,05)15-x
= (15
𝑥
) (0,05)x(0,95)15-x, where x = 0,1,2,…..15
a) 𝑃(𝑋 = 5 ) = (15
𝑥
) (0,05)5 (0,95)15-5

= (15
5
) (0,05)5 (0,95)10
= 0,000561877
b) A buyer would suspect the claim is wrong because assuming a correct claim,
probability of having 5 detective items in sample is 0,000561877 and such event
would occur only
(0,000561877 × 100%) = 5,61877 × 10-4 % of time
4. Given :
• A method is used that rejects a lot if 2 or more defective units
• n = 100
Solution :
a. 𝑃 = 2% = 0.02 𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 2) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑥 < 2)
𝜇 =𝑛×𝑃 = 1 − 𝑃(𝑥 < 2)
𝜇 = 100 × 0,02 = 1 − (𝑃(𝑥 = 1) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 2))
𝜇=2 = 1 − (𝑃(1,2) + 𝑃(2,1))
𝑒 −2 (2)1 𝑒 −2 (2)2
=1−( + )
1! 2!
= 1 − 0,5413
 = 𝟎, 𝟒𝟓𝟖𝟕

b. 𝑃 = 4% = 0,04 𝑃(𝑥 < 2) = 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 1)

𝜇 =𝑛×𝑃 = 𝑃(𝑥 = 0) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 1)
𝑒 −4 (4)−0 𝑒 −4 (4)−1
𝜇 = 100 × 0,04 = +
0! 1!
𝜇=4 = 𝟎, 𝟎𝟗𝟏𝟓

5. a.
• variable X represent the number of 1’s obtained in throwing of 3 dice
• probability of succes in each trial is p = 1/6
Because trials are independent, X has binomial distribution with parameters n = 3 and p =
1/6
P(X = x) = ( n ) pˣ (1 – p)ᶯˉˣ
X
= ( 3 ) (1/6)ˣ (5/6)ᶣˣ , x = 0, 1, 2, 3
X
• find the probability that we get at least one 1
P(X > 1) = 1 – P(X = 0)
= 1 – ( 3 ) (1/6)⁰ (5/6)³
0
= 1 – (5/6)³
= 91 = 0.421296
216
b.
• variable X represent the number of (1, 1)’s obtained in throwing of 2 dice 20 times
• probability of a success in each trial is p = 1/6 . 1/6 = 1/36

X has binomial distribution with parameters n = 24 and p = 1/36

P(X = x) = ( n ) pˣ (1 – p)ᶯˉˣ
x
= (20) (1/36)ˣ (35/36)²⁰ˉˣ
x = 0, 1, 2, 3, ...., 20
calculate teh probability that you get at least one (1,1)
P(X > 1) = 1 – P(X = 0)
= 1 – ( 20 ) (1/36)⁰ (35/36)²⁰
= 1 – (35/36)²⁰
= 0,43074
6. Given :
1). The number of failures among the 200 diodes
2). It success if failure of a diode occurrence
3). Probability of a success in each trial is v = 0.02
4). Probability of failure is n = 1 – u = 1 – 0,02 =0,98
Answer
a. 𝜇 = E (X)
= 𝓃v
= 200 . 0.02
=4

b. 𝜎 2 = 𝓃v (1 – v)
= 200 . 0.02 ( 1 – 0.02)
= 4 . 0.98
= 3.92

(4)0
c. P ( x ; 𝜇 ) = 𝑒 −4 0!

= 0,01831

7. Let us consider that testinf of a battery is a trial and trials are independent. If a baterry
fails in a test, we consider that as a success, probability of success in each trial is
p = 0.0001. So q : (l-p) = 0.999
Let us consier random variable X is the number of batteries to test to het the first battery
which fails i.e, X is the number of trials required to get 1st success.
X follows geometris distribution with parameters p = 0.001
a.) Probability that a lot is accepted means number of batteries to be tested to get the first
battery failed is more than 75
p( 𝑥 > 75) = 1 − 𝑝(𝑥 ≤ 75)
p( 𝑥 > 75) = 1 − ∑75 𝑥=1(0.001)(1 − 0.001)
𝑥−1

1 ( 1−0.99975 )
p( 𝑥 > 75) = 1 − (0.001) [ ]
(1−0.999)
𝑛
𝑎 (1 − 𝑟 𝑛
[𝑠𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑒𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑖 ∑ 𝑎𝑟 = ]
1−𝑟
𝑛=0
𝑎2
Where a1 = first term, r = common ratib (𝑎1)
P( 𝑥 > 75) = 1 − (1 − 0.99975 )
= (0.99975 )
P( 𝑥 > 75) = 0.9277
 b.) Now we nees to find the probability that a lot is rejected on 20th test
P ( 𝑥 = 20) = 𝑝. 𝑞 𝑥−1 = (0.001)(0.999)204
p( 𝑥 = 20) = 9.81 × 10−4

c.) here p( 𝑥 ≤ 10) = ∑10

𝑥=1(0.001)(0.999)
𝑥−1
1−(1−0.99910 )
p( 𝑥 ≤ 10) = (0.001) [ ]
(1−0.999)
p( 𝑥 ≤ 10) = 0.01

8. Given:
P= 0.25
n= 6
Ask:
probability that the driller will “hit it big”
Answer:
probability that the driller will “hit it big” = 6𝐶2 × 0.252 × 0.754 = 0.2966