StatisticsBonusAssignment

Friona Pocari
January 6 2023

Solutions:

(20 points) Probability formulas. Answer true or false. Justify your answer.
a) (𝐴𝐶 ∪ 𝐵𝐶 ∪𝐶𝐶) 𝐶 = 𝐴𝐶 ∩ 𝐵𝐶 ∩𝐶𝐶
 The answer is false, because: (𝐴𝐶 ∪ 𝐵𝐶 ∪𝐶𝐶) 𝐶 = (𝐴𝐶 ) C ∩ (B𝐶 ) C ∩(C𝐶 ) C
=>Demorgan’s Law Since (A𝐶 ) C = A, then (𝐴𝐶 ∪ 𝐵𝐶 ∪𝐶𝐶) 𝐶 = (A∩B∩C)
b) Given P(A) = 1 3 and 𝑃(𝐵𝐶) = 1 4 , A and B can not be disjoint.
 The answer is true, because: P(A) = 1 /3 𝑃(𝐵𝐶) = 1/ 4 As we know A and B are
disjoint only if P(A ∩ B)=0
𝑃(𝐵𝐶) = 1 - P(B) 1 4 = 1 - P(B)
1/4 – 1 = -P(B)
− 3 4 = -P(B) =>P(B)= 3 4
We have: P(A U B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A∩B), since P(A U B)=1 it means that P(A U B)=P(A)
+P(B)-P(A∩B)=>
1 = 1/3 + 3/4 - P(A∩B) =>1 = 13/12 - P(A∩B) =>P(A∩B) = 1/12 ≠0
As a result, A and B cannot be disjoint.
c) If𝑃(𝐴) =𝑃(𝐵) = 1 2 , 𝑃(𝐴𝐶 ∩𝐵𝐶) = 1/3 , then 𝑃(𝐴∪𝐵𝐶) = 2/3
 The answer is false, because 𝑃(𝐴∪𝐵𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴𝐶 ∩𝐵C) = 1/2 + 1/3 = 5/6 ≠ 2/3
𝑃(𝐴∪𝐵𝐶) = 2/3 .
(20 points) Two litters of a particular rodent species have been born, one with 2 brown-
haired, and 1 gray-haired (litter 1), and the other with 3 brown-haired and 2 grey haired (litter
2). We select a litter at random and then select an offspring at random from the selected litter.
• What is the probability that the animal chosen is brown-haired. Let us give the letter A, for
the probability of the chosen animal to be brown-haired and the letter B for the probability of
choosing litter 1.
So using the formula below, we find:
1. P(A)= P(A|B) * P(B) + P(A|BC )*P(BC ).
𝑡h𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑏𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑛−h𝑎𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟 1
2. P(A|B) = = 2/3.
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟 1
𝑡h𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑏𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑛−h𝑎𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟 2
3. P(A|BC ) = =3/5.
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟 2
Since we choose litter at random, P(B)= P(BC ) = 1/2 By plugging in these values: P(A) =
( 2/3 ∗ 1/2 ) + (3/5 ∗ 1/2 ) = 2/6 + 3/10 = 0.633
The probability that the animal choosen is brown haired is 0.633.
• Given that a brown-haired offspring was selected, what is the probability that the sampling
was from litter 1? The brown-haired offspring was selected, this means that the probability
that the sampling was from litter1 = P(A|B) using Byes rule:

𝑃 ( 𝐴|𝐵 ) 𝑥 𝑃 ( 𝐵) ( 1
2 ) 𝑥( )
2
3
P(B|A) = = = 10/19 = 0.5263
𝑃 ( 𝐴| 𝐵) 𝑥𝑃 ( 𝐵 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐴|𝐵𝐶 ) 𝑥 𝑃 ( 𝐵𝐶 )
[( 2 ) 𝑥 ( 3 )]+[ 2 𝑥 5 ]
1 2 1 3

Answer: the probability that the sampling was from littler 1, is 0.5263.
(20 points) Mean Calculation. Let X have the pdf:
𝑥

a) E[𝑋 𝑟=1
] = ∫ ❑xr𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥
−∞

E[𝑋 𝑟=1
] =∫ ❑ 𝑥 ∗ 4𝑥 3𝑑𝑥
0

E[𝑋 𝑟=1 ] = ∫ ❑4𝑥 4𝑑𝑥 = 4𝑥 5 /5 |10 = 4/5

0

1
b) E[𝑋 𝑟=2 ]∫ ❑ 𝑥 2 ∗ 4𝑥 3𝑑𝑥
0

E[𝑋 𝑟=2
] = ∫ ❑ 4𝑥 5𝑑𝑥= 4𝑥 6 /6 |1 0= 2/3
0

c) E[𝑋 ] = ∫ ❑𝑥 𝑟 ∗ 4𝑥 3𝑑𝑥
𝑟

E[𝑋 𝑟 ] = ∫ ❑ 4𝑥 𝑟+3𝑑𝑥 = 4𝑥 𝑟+3+1 /𝑟+4 |1 0= 4/ 𝑟+4 .

0

(20 points) Customers arrive randomly at Starbucks. Given that a consumer arrived in a
certain 10- minute period, let X be the exact time within the 10 minutes that the consumer
arrived. We will assume that X is 𝑈 [0, 10], i.e., that X is uniformly distributed on the real
interval [0, 1] ⊆𝑈. Definition of uniform distribution in case of [a,b] f(x) = 1 𝑏−𝑎 if a ≤ x ≤
b 0 if otherwise
• Find the pdf of X [a,b] ->[0,10]
->f(x) = 1/𝑏−𝑎 = 1 /10−0 = 1/10
0 ≤ x ≤ 10 and otherwise it is 0.
8 10

• Compute P(X≥8) = 1 – P(X<8) = 1 - ∫ ❑𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 8 0 = 1 - ∫ ❑1/10 𝑑𝑥 = 1 -8/10 = 2/10 =

0 0
1/5.
8 8

• Compute 𝑃(2 ≤ 𝑋 < 8) = ∫ ❑𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 = ∫ ❑1/10 𝑑𝑥 = 1/10 (8-2) = 6/10 = 3/ 5.

2 2

• Compute the expected value E[X].

10

E[X] = ∫ ❑𝑥𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 = 1/10 [ 𝑥2/ 2 ]10 0 = 100/20 = 5 .

0

10

E(X2 ) = ∫ ❑ x2𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 = 1/10 ∗ [ 𝑥 3 /3 ]10 0= 1/10 ∗ ( 1000/3 ) = 1000/3 = 333.3

0

• Compute the variance Var(X).

Var(X) = E(x2 ) – E(x)2
Var(X) = 333.3 – 52 = 333.3 – 25 = 308,3.

(20 points) An urn contains 3 red balls and 4 green balls. Suppose you grab 3 balls without
replacement and let R be the number of red balls that you get.
• Find a formula for the pmf P(R = k) and draw the probability histogram. From the
information given below we understand that this is a hypergeometric random variable with
P(R = k) = ( 3 /𝑘 ) ( 4 /3−𝑘 ) / 7/3

The table:
k 0 1 2 3
P(R = k) ( 3 0 )( 4 3 )/( 7 3 1 )( 4 2 )/( 7 ( 3 2 )( 4 1 )/( 7 ( 3 3 )( 4 0 )/( 7
3) = 4/35 3 ) = 18/35 3) = 12/35 3) = 1/35
The histogram:
• Compute the expected value E[R].
The expected value is: E[R] = 0 * P(R=0) + 1 * P(R=1) + 2 * P(R=2) + 3 * P(R=3)=> E[R] =
0 x 4/35 + 1x 18/35 + 2 x 12/35 + 3 x 1/35 = 9/7 ≈ 1.3
In conclusion: If 3 out of the 7 balls in the urn are red and we grab n balls, then it is expected
to get (3/7)n red balls.Eg. n is equal to 3 we can calculate it as 3 x (3/7)=9/7.
Lastly if the urn contains r for red and g balls and we grab n out these g balls, then the
number of red balls to be is expected is : nr/(r+g).