Directorate of Online Education

INTERNAL ASSIGNMENT

NAME Yogita Pralhad Deore

SESSION NOV-DEC 2023
PROGRAM MASTER OF COMPUTER APPLICATIONS (MCA)
SEMESTER III
ROLL NUMBER 2214501100
COURSE CODE & NAME DCA7101 – Probability and Statistics
BATCH 04
Set-I

Q.1 Bag I contain 3 red and 4 black balls and Bag II contain 4 red and 5
black balls. One ball is transferred from Bag I to Bag II and then a ball is
drawn from Bag II. The ball so drawn is found to be red. Find the probability
that the transferred ball is black.

Ans : A = Event of drawing red ball from Bag II

𝐸1= Event that red ball is transferred from Bag I
𝐸2= Event that black ball is transferred from Bag I

In the event that the ball being transferred is red in colour, we must determine
the likelihood that it is black.i.e. P(𝐸2|𝐴)

P(𝐸2 𝑃(𝐸2)⋅𝑃(𝐴|𝐸2)
|𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐸1)⋅𝑃(𝐴|𝐸1)+𝑃(𝐸2)⋅𝑃(𝐴|𝐸2)

𝑃(𝐸 ) = Probability that red ball is transferred from Bag I = 3

1 7
) = Probability that black ball is transferred from Bag I = 4
𝑃(𝐸 7
2
𝑃(𝐴|𝐸1) = Probability that red ball is drawn from Bag II, If red ball is
transferred from Bag I = 5 = 1
10 2
𝑃(𝐴|𝐸2) = Probability that red ball is drawn from Bag II, if black ball is
transferred from Bag I = 4 = 2
10 5

P(𝐸2 P(E2)⋅P(A|E2)
|𝐴) = P(E1)⋅P(A|E1)+P(E2)⋅P(A|E2)

4 2 5
= 3 17 ∗ 2
∗ +4 ∗
7 2 7 5
8 8
35 35 16
= 3
+
8 = 15 + = 31
16
14 35 70
Thus, the likelihood that the ball being transferred is black= 16
31
Q.2 A random variable has the following probability distribution
𝑿 𝟎 𝟏 𝟐 𝟑 𝟒 𝟓 𝟔 𝟕
𝑷[𝑿 𝟎 𝒂 𝟐𝒂 𝟐𝒂 𝟑𝒂 𝒂𝟐 𝟐𝒂𝟐 𝟕𝒂𝟐
= 𝒙] +𝒂
Find (i) the value of ‘𝒂’
𝟏. 𝟓 < 𝑿 < 𝟒. 𝟓
(𝒊𝒊)𝑷 [ ]
𝑿>𝟐
(iii) 𝑬(𝑿)
Ans. (i) ∑∞ P(ϰi) = 1
i=1
10𝑎2 + 9𝑎 = 1
1
a=
10
or -1
1
therefore, Value of a =
10
𝟏. 𝟓 < 𝑿 < 𝟒. 𝟓
(𝒊𝒊)𝑷 [ ]
𝑿>𝟐
P[(1.5<x<4.5)∩(x>2)]
= P(x>2)

P(x = 3) + P(x = 4) 5
= =
1 − [P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) 7

(iii) E(X)

11 1 1 1 1 17
= 1( )+2( )+3( )+4( )+5( ) + 6 ( ) + 7 100)
( 10 5 5 10 100 50

1x10 2x20 3x20 6x20 2x1 6x2 119x1

= 10 + + 5 + 5 + 100 + 50 + 100

10 + 40 + 60 + 120 + 5 + 12 + 119
= 100
= 366 = 3.66
100
Q.3 The daily earning of a vendor for a period of 43 days are given below
Daily earning 118- 127- 136- 145- 154- 163- 172-
(Rs.) 126 135 144 153 162 171 180
No. of days 3 8 9 12 5 4 2
Calculate Standard Deviation and coefficient of variation.
Ans.
Daily Earning C.I.(Rs) f Mid Point X fx D=x-𝑥̅ 𝐷2 f𝐷2
118-126 3 122 366 -23.86 569.29 1707.89
127-135 8 131 1048 -14.86 220.81 1766.55
136-144 9 140 1260 -5.86 34.33 309.05
145-153 12 149 1788 3.14 9.85 118.31
154-162 5 158 790 12.14 147.37 736.898
163-171 4 167 668 21.14 446.89 1787.59
172-180 2 176 352 30.14 908.41 1816.83
N= ∑𝑓 = 6272
43

= N = 43
= ∑𝑓𝑥 = 6272
= ∑𝑓𝐷2 = 8243.11
∑𝑓𝜘 6272
= 𝑥̅ = = = 149.86
∑𝑓 43

∑𝑓𝐷2
= Standard Division 𝜎 = √
𝑁

∑8243.11
𝜎=√ =√191.70
43

= 13.84
So, Standard Deviation (𝜎) = 13.84
Constant of Variant = 𝜎 ∗ 100
𝑥̅

13.84
= 145⋅86 ∗ 100
= 9.488
So, Constant of Variant = 9.488

Set-II
Q.4 Suppose that a manufactured product has 2 defects per unit of product
inspected. Using Poisson’s distribution, calculate the probabilities of finding
a product without any defect, 3 defects, and 4 defects. (Given 𝒆−𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟑𝟓)
Ans. Poisson division or distribution is given by:

(e∧−μ)(μ∧x)
= P(x ; 𝜇) = x!

Where,
X= number of success from an experiment
𝜇 = 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
e = 2.71828
Here, the mean of the number of defect, 𝜇 = 2
∧
−2)(2∧0)
Chance of getting 0 defects = P(0;2) = (e
0!

= P(0;2) = 0.135
Possibility of finding a product without any defect = 0.135
∧
(e
−3)(2∧3)
Possibility of getting 3 defects = P(3;2) =
3!

= P(3;2) = 0.066
Possibilty of finding a product with 3 defect = 0.066
∧
−4)(2∧4)
Chances to getting 4 defects = P(4;2) = (e
4!

= P( 4;2) = 0.0122
Possibility of discovering or looking for a product with four = 0.0122
Q.5 Compute the regression equation of Y on X and regression equation of
X on Y on the basis of the following information
X Y
Mean 40 45
Standard Deviation 10 9
The correlation coefficient between X and Y is 0.50.
Also estimate the value of Y for X = 48, using the appropriate regression
equation.
Ans. The following formula can be used to determine y's equivalency on x.
𝜎𝑦
= 𝑦 − 𝑦̅ = 𝑟𝜎 (𝑥 − 𝑥̅)
𝜎𝜘

= (y-45)= 0.50 * 9
10 (x-40)
=(y-45) = 0.45 (x-40) …….i
𝜎𝑦
= Equation of x on y = x-𝑥̅ = 𝑟𝜎 (𝑦 − 𝑥̅)
𝜎𝜘

= (x - 40) = 0.50*10 (y-45)

9

=(x – 40) = 5 (y – 45) ……ii

9

Now it’s Given x= 48

Evaluating y and x = 48 Put in equation i
= (y – 45) = 0.45 (48 – 40)
= (y – 45) = 0.45 * 8
= y = 3.6 +45 = 48.6
So, y = 48.6
 Q.6 The following data relate to the prices and quantities of 4 commodities in
the years 1982 and 1983. Construct the following index numbers of price for
the year 1983 by using 1982 as base year.
(i) Laspeyre’s Index
(ii) Paasche’s Index
(iii) Fisher’s Index
Commodity 1982 1983
Price Quantity Price Quantity
A 5 100 6 150
B 4 80 5 100
C 2.5 60 5 72
D 12 30 9 33

Ans. 1. Laspeyre’s Index = ∑𝑃1 𝑄0 ∗ 100

∑𝑃0 𝑄0

𝑷𝟏 𝑸𝟎 𝑷𝟎 𝑸𝟎
600 500
400 320
300 150
270 360
∑𝑃1 𝑄0 = 1570 ∑𝑃0 𝑄0 = 1330

= 1570 ∗ 100 = 118.45

1330

=L = 118.045

2. Paasche’s Index = ∑𝑃1 𝑄1 ∗ 100

∑𝑃0 𝑄1
𝑃1 𝑄0 𝑃1 𝑄1
900 750
500 400
360 180
297 396
∑𝑃1 𝑄0 = 2057 ∑𝑃0 𝑄0 = 1726

2057
* 100 = 119.117
1726

= P = 119.117

3. Fisher’s Index = √𝐿 ∗ 𝑃
L= 118.05
P = 119.177

= √118.045 ∗ 119.77

= √14068.25
= F = 118.609