BUSINESS AND FORCASTING

TECHNIQUE
MBA(MS)
SUBMITTED TO:
Mr. Vandit Hedau

SUBMITTED BY:
Sonam Potfode
IM-2K8-87
Mitali Agrawal
IM-2K8-58

Quarterly data of Crude Oil prices

Month
mar
jun
sep
dec
mar
jun
sep
dec
mar
jun
sep

Year
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011

Crude Oil prices(in Rs.)

2473
3403
3205
3726
3702
3559
3563
4034
4668
4259
4019

Using Holts Linear Model

Ft+M = Lt + M bt
Lt = Yt+(1- )(L t-1+b t-1)
bt = (Lt -L t-1)+(1-) b t-1
Lt = an estimate of a level of series at time t
bt = an estimate of a slope of series at time t
M = period ahead to be forecasted

Assumptions
=0.072
=0.501
b1 = Y2-Y1
L1 = Y1

Calculations
Month Year
1) mar
2) jun
3) sep
4) dec
5) mar
6) jun
7)sep
8)dec
9)mar
10)jun
11)sep

2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011

Crude Oil prices(in Rs.)

2473
3403
3205
3726
3702
3559
3563
4034
4668
4259
4019

bt
930
930
889.31
855.72
807.23
748.76
692.72
656.75
637.98
590.86
537.37

Lt
2473
3403
3767.87
4190.66
4372.84
4367.91
4338.28
4531.49
4927.60
4910.98
4758.94

Ft+M
3403
4333
4657.18
5046.38
5180.07
5116.67
5031.00
5188.24
5565.58
5501.84

Forecasting
To forecast price of crude oil for Mar 2012F13= F11+2
F13=L11+2 b11
F13=4758.94 + 2 * 537.37
F13 =5833.68 Rs.