QUESTION FOUR
Group Three Pharmaceutics Presentations 2
Poisson distribution
The Poisson distribution is a probability tool used to model the number of times an
event happens within a fixed interval of time. It's particularly useful for counting events
that occur randomly but at a known average rate.
The Core Idea
Imagine you're standing by the road and counting the number of cars that pass by per
minute. The number of cars could be 0, 1, 2, 3, and so on. The Poisson distribution
helps you figure out the probability of each of these outcomes. For example, what's
the probability that exactly 3 cars will pass in the next minute? The key assumptions
are that the cars pass independently of each other, and the average number of cars per
minute remains constant.
The Formula
The Poisson distribution is defined by a single parameter, lambda (λ), which
represents the average number of events per interval. The probability of observing
exactly k events is given by the formula:
P(X=k)=λke−λ/k!
Let's break down the components of this formula:
•P(X=k) is the probability that the event occurs exactly k times.
•λ (lambda) is the average rate of events. This is the most crucial part—if you know
the average, you can use the formula.
•e is Euler's number, a constant approximately equal to 2.71828.
•k is the specific number of events you want to find the probability for (eg 3 cars, 5
calls, 0 defects).
•k! is the factorial of k (k!=k×(k−1)×...×1).
When to Use a Poisson Distribution
A situation to use a Poisson distribution should meet these criteria;
Events should be independent: The occurrence of one event doesn't affect the probability of
another event happening. For example, one customer walking into a store doesn't make it
more or less likely that the next customer will walk in soon.
The average rate is constant: The rate at which events occur is uniform throughout the
interval. This means the average number of calls per hour is the same at noon as it is at 3pm.
Events are non-simultaneous: It's highly unlikely for two events to occur at the exact same
instant.
The variable is a count: The outcome is a whole number (0, 1, 2,….). You can't have half a call
or a quarter of a car.
Examples
The Poisson distribution is a powerful tool used across many different fields:
•Customer Service: A call center might use it to predict the number of incoming
calls per hour to ensure they have enough staff.
•Quality Control: A factory manager might use it to calculate the probability of
finding a certain number of defects in a manufactured product.
•Epidemiology: Public health officials can model the number of new disease cases
in a city over a given week.
•Physics: It's used to model the number of radioactive decays per second in a
sample.
Significance of Poisson
distribution
•Establish a Baseline: They can determine the expected number of a specific ADR based on
historical data or clinical trials. This establishes a baseline against which to compare future
reports.
•Identify Safety Signals: When the observed number of ADR reports for a drug significantly
exceeds the number predicted by the Poisson model, it raises a "safety signal." This signal
indicates that the drug may have a higher risk of causing that particular reaction than previously
thought.
•Make Data-Driven Decisions: The model allows regulators and pharmaceutical companies to
assess whether an increase in reported side effects is a genuine safety concern or just a random
statistical fluctuation. This helps them make informed decisions about whether to issue a new
