Significance Tests involving the Poisson Distribution (Small λ)

1 (a) The number of misprints on the front page of the Daily Informer is
found to have a Poisson distribution with mean 6.5. A new proof-
reader is employed and shortly afterwards the front page is found to
have 2 misprints. The editor says that the mean number of misprints
has decreased. Test this claim at the 5% level.
Ho : λ = 6.5 (mean number of misprints has not decreased)
H1 : λ < 6.5 (mean number of misprints has decreased)
Reject Ho if P(X ≤ 2) < 0.05
X ~ Po (6.5)
P(X ≤ 2) = 0.0430 < 0.05
Reject Ho. The mean number of misprints has decreased.

(b) If the editor says that the mean number of misprints has not
changed if the front page is found to have 2 misprints, test this
claim at the 5% level.
Ho : λ = 6.5 (mean number of misprints has not changed)
H1 : λ ≠ 6.5 (mean number of misprints has changed)
Reject Ho if P(X ≤ 2) < 0.025
X ~ Po (6.5)
P(X ≤ 2) = 0.043 > 0.025
Accept Ho. The mean number of misprints has not changed.

2. The mean number of serious accidents at a motorway interchange is 2.1

per week. Given that there were 6 serious accidents during one wet
winter week, test at the 5% level of significance, the hypothesis that the
accident rate is higher in the wet weather.
Ho: λ = 2.1 (the accident rate is the same)
H1: λ > 2.1 (the accident rate is higher)
Reject Ho if P(X ≥ 6) < 0.05
X ~ Po (2.1)
P(X ≥ 6) = 1 - P(X ≤ 5) = 0.0204 < 0.05
Reject Ho. The accident rate is higher in the wet weather.

3. The number, X, of breakdowns per day of the lifts in a large block of

flats has a Poisson distribution with mean 0.2. The maintenance
contract for the lifts is given to a new company. With this company it
is found that there are 2 breakdowns over a period of 30 days.
Perform a significance test at the 5% level to decide whether or not
the number of breakdowns has decreased. 0.0620
4. Accidents used to occur at a certain road junction at a rate of 6 per
month. The residents had petitioned for traffic lights but the planners
believed that the average number of accidents per month could be
reduced simply by erecting a warning sign. In the month there were
only 3 accidents. Does this give significant evidence that the planners
were correct? Use 5% level of significance.

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5. Every year a statistics teacher takes her class out to observe the
traffic passing the school gates during a Tuesday lunch hour. Over
the year she has established that the average number of lorries
passing the gate in a lunch hour is 7.5. During the course of the last
12 months a new bypass has been built and the number of lorries
passing the school gates in this year’s experiment was 4. Test, at the
5% level, whether or not the mean number of lorries passing the gates
on a Tuesday lunch hour has been reduced.
6. A manufacture of windows has used a process which produced flaws
in the glass randomly at a rate of 0.5 per m2. In an attempt to reduce
the number of flaws produced, a new process is tried out. A randomly
chosen window produced using this new process has an area of 8m2
and contains only one flaw. Test at the 10% level of significance
whether or not the rate of occurrence of flaws using the new
procedure has decreased.
7. The number, X, of breakdowns per day of the lifts in a large block of flats
has a Poisson distribution with mean 0.2. The maintenance contract for
the lifts is given to a new company. With this company, it is found that
there are two breakdowns over a period of 30 days. Perform a
significance test at the 5% level to decide whether or not the number of
breakdowns has decreased.

Textbook: Exercise 10b Page 500

Miscellaneous Exercise 10c Page 504 – 506
Mixed Test 10B Page 506

Answer

3. P(X ≤ 2) = 0.0620 > 0.025; Accept H o. The mean number of misprints has not
changed.
4. P(X ≤ 3) = 0.151 > 0.05; Accept Ho. The planners were not correct.
5. P(X ≤ 4) = 0.132 > 0.05; Accept Ho. The mean number of lorries has not been
reduced.
6. P(X ≤ 1) = 0.0915 < 0.10; Reject Ho. The rate of occurrence of flaws using the new
procedure has decreased.
7. P(X ≤ 2) = 0.0620 > 0.05; Accept H o. The number of breakdowns has not
decreased.

Significance Tests involving the Poisson Distribution (Large λ)

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 When λ is large, a Normal approximation to the Poisson distribution
can be applied. The test is similar to the one for Normal
approximation to the Binomial distribution.

(x ± 0.5) − λ
z=

1. The number of errors per page made by a typesetter for a publisher

has a Poisson distribution with mean 2. The publisher sends his
typesetter for training so as to reduce the number of errors made. To
test whether the training is effective, 10 pages of the work done by the
typesetter are selected at random and are found to contain 10 errors.
Using a suitable approximation, perform a significance test at the 5%
level to decide whether the training is effective.

Ho: λ = 20 (the number of errors has not decreased)

H1: λ < 20 (the number of errors has decreased)
Reject Ho if z < − 1.645
(10 + 0.5) − 20
z = = −2.12
20

Since z < − 1.645, we reject Ho. The number of errors has decreased, therefore
the training is effective.

Reject Ho if P(X ≤ 10) < 0.05

X ∼ N(20, 20)
P(X ≤ 10)
10.5 - 20
= P(Z ≤ )
20
= P ( Z ≤ −2.124)
= 1 − 0.9832 = 0.0168 < 0.05
Since P(X ≤ 10) < 0.05, we reject Ho. The number of errors has decreased,
therefore the training is effective.

2. The number of bacterial colonies that develop in dishes of nutrient

exposed to an infected environment has a Poisson distribution with
mean 7.5. Experiments are conducted to determine the effectiveness
of an antibiotic spray in reducing the number of bacterial colonies
that develop. In one experiment when three dishes were sprayed, the
number of bacterial colonies that develop was 13. Stating suitable
null and alternative hypotheses, determine whether or not this result
provides significant evidence at the 5% level that the spray is effective.

3. The number of flaws per metre of fabric follows a Poisson distribution

with mean 2. With the aim of reducing the number of flaws, the fabric is
subjected to a different treatment process. After this treatment a
significance test is devised to gauge whether it has been successful. The
test states that the number of flaws has decreased if a randomly selected

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15-metre length of cloth contains fifteen flaws. Determine whether or not
this result provides significant evidence at the 1% level that the
treatment has been successful.

Answer

(13 + 0.5) − 22.5

2. z =
22.5
= −1.90 < -1.645 ; we reject Ho. The spray reduces the number of
bacterial colony that develops, therefore the spray is effective.

P(X ≤ 13) = 0.0289 < 0.05; we reject Ho. The spray reduces the number of bacterial
colony that develops, therefore the spray is effective.

(15 + 0.5) − 30
3. z = = −2.65 < − 2.326; we reject Ho. The treatment reduces the number
30

of flaws, therefore the treatment is successful.

Reject Ho if P(X ≤ 15) = 0.0041 < 0.01; we reject Ho. The treatment reduces the
number of flaws, therefore the treatment is successful.

3. The number of bacterial colonies that develop in dishes of nutrient

exposed to an infected environment has a Poisson distribution with
mean 7.5. Experiments are conducted to determine the
effectiveness of an antibiotic spray in reducing the number of
bacterial colonies that develop. In one experiment when three
dishes were sprayed, the number of bacterial colonies that develop
was 13. Stating suitable null and alternative hypotheses,
determine whether or not this result provides significant evidence
at the 5% level that the spray is effective.

Ho: λ = 22.5 (the spray is not effective)

H1: λ < 22.5 (the spray is effective)
Reject Ho if z < − 1.645

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 (13 + 0.5) − 22.5
z= = −1.90
22.5
Since z < − 1.645, we reject Ho. The spray reduces the number of bacterial
colony that develops, therefore the spray is effective.

Reject Ho if P(X ≤ 13) < 0.05

X ∼ N(22.5, 22.5)
P(X ≤ 13)
13.5 - 22.5
= P(Z ≤ )
22.5
= P ( Z ≤ −1.897 )
= 1 − 0.9711 = 0.0289 < 0.05
Since P(X ≤ 13) < 0.05, we reject Ho. The spray reduces the number of bacterial
colony that develops, therefore the spray is effective.

3. The number of flaws per metre of fabric follows a Poisson distribution

with mean 2. With the aim of reducing the number of flaws, the fabric is
subjected to a different treatment process. After this treatment a
significance test is devised to gauge whether it has been successful. The
test states that the number of flaws has decreased if a randomly selected
15-metre length of cloth contains fifteen flaws. Determine whether or not
this result provides significant evidence at the 1% level that the
treatment has been successful.

Ho: λ = 30 (the treatment not successful)

H1: λ < 30 (the treatment successful)

Reject Ho if z < − 2.326

(15 + 0.5) − 30
z= = −2.65
30

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Since z < − 2.326, we reject H o. The treatment reduces the number of flaws,
therefore the treatment is successful.

Reject Ho if P(X ≤ 15) < 0.05

X ∼ N(30,30)
P(X ≤ 15)
15.5 - 30
= P(Z ≤ )
30
= P ( Z ≤ −2.647 )
= 1 − 0.9959 = 0.0041 < 0.01
Since P(X ≤ 15) < 0.01, we reject Ho. The treatment reduces the number of flaws,
therefore the treatment is successful.