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7. 2009 Hypothesis Testing-Poisson S

# 7. 2009 Hypothesis Testing-Poisson S

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02/14/2015

Significance Tests involving the Poisson Distribution (Small
λ
)
1
(a) The number of misprints on the front page of the Daily Informer isfound to have a Poisson distribution with mean 6.5. A new proof-reader is employed and shortly afterwards the front page is found tohave 2 misprints. The editor says that the mean number of misprintshas decreased. Test this claim at the 5% level.
H
o
:
λ
= 6.5 (mean number of misprints has not decreased)H
1
:
λ
< 6.5 (mean number of misprints has decreased)Reject H
o
if P(X
2) < 0.05X ~ Po (6.5)P(X
2) = 0.0430 < 0.05Reject H
o.
The mean number of misprints has decreased.
(b)
If the editor says that the mean number of misprints has notchanged if the front page is found to have 2 misprints, test thisclaim at the 5% level.
H
o
:
λ
= 6.5 (mean number of misprints has not changed)H
1
:
λ

6.5 (mean number of misprints has changed)Reject H
o
if P(X
2) < 0.025X ~ Po (6.5)P(X
2) = 0.043 > 0.025Accept H
o.
The mean number of misprints has not changed.
2.The mean number of serious accidents at a motorway interchange is 2.1per week. Given that there were 6 serious accidents during one wet winter week, test at the 5% level of significance, the hypothesis that theaccident rate is higher in the wet weather.
H
o
:
λ
= 2.1 (the accident rate is the same)H
1
:
λ

>
2.1 (the accident rate is higher)Reject H
o
if P(X
6)
<
0.05X ~ Po (2.1)P(X
6) = 1 - P(X
5) = 0.0204
<
0.05Reject H
o.
The accident rate is higher in the wet weather.
3.
The number, X, of breakdowns per day of the lifts in a large block of flats has a Poisson distribution with mean 0.2. The maintenancecontract for the lifts is given to a new company. With this company itis found that there are 2 breakdowns over a period of 30 days.Perform a significance test at the 5% level to decide whether or notthe number of breakdowns has decreased. 0.06204.Accidents used to occur at a certain road junction at a rate of 6 permonth. The residents had petitioned for traffic lights but the plannersbelieved that the average number of accidents per month could bereduced simply by erecting a warning sign. In the month there wereonly 3 accidents. Does this give significant evidence that the planners were correct? Use 5% level of significance.
1

5.Every year a statistics teacher takes her class out to observe thetraffic passing the school gates during a Tuesday lunch hour. Overthe year she has established that the average number of lorriespassing the gate in a lunch hour is 7.5. During the course of the last12 months a new bypass has been built and the number of lorriespassing the school gates in this year’s experiment was 4. Test, at the5% level, whether or not the mean number of lorries passing the gateson a Tuesday lunch hour has been reduced.
6.
A manufacture of windows has used a process which produced flawsin the glass randomly at a rate of 0.5 per m
2
. In an attempt to reducethe number of flaws produced, a new process is tried out. A randomlychosen window produced using this new process has an area of 8m
2
and contains only one flaw. Test at the 10% level of significance whether or not the rate of occurrence of flaws using the newprocedure has decreased.7. The number, X, of breakdowns per day of the lifts in a large block of flatshas a Poisson distribution with mean 0.2. The maintenance contract forthe lifts is given to a new company. With this company, it is found thatthere are two breakdowns over a period of 30 days. Perform asignificance test at the 5% level to decide whether or not the number of breakdowns has decreased. Textbook: Exercise 10b Page 500Miscellaneous Exercise 10c Page 504 – 506Mixed Test 10B Page 506Answer
3. P(X
2) = 0.0620 > 0.025; Accept H
o.
The mean number of misprints has notchanged.4.P(X
3) = 0.151 > 0.05; Accept H
o.
The planners were not correct.5. P(X
4) = 0.132 > 0.05; Accept H
o.
The mean number of lorries has not beenreduced.6. P(X
1) = 0.0915 < 0.10; Reject H
o.
The rate of occurrence of flaws using the newprocedure has decreased.7. P(X
2) = 0.0620 > 0.05; Accept H
o.
The number of breakdowns has notdecreased.
Significance Tests involving the Poisson Distribution (Large
λ
)
2

When
λ
is large, a Normal approximation to the Poisson distributioncan be applied. The test is similar to the one for Normalapproximation to the Binomial distribution.
=
z
λ
λ
±
0.5)(x
1.The number of errors per page made by a typesetter for a publisherhas a Poisson distribution with mean 2. The publisher sends histypesetter for training so as to reduce the number of errors made. Totest whether the training is effective, 10 pages of the work done by thetypesetter are selected at random and are found to contain 10 errors.Using a suitable approximation, perform a significance test at the 5%level to decide whether the training is effective.
H
o
:
λ
= 20 (the number of errors has not decreased)H
1
:
λ
< 20 (the number of errors has decreased)Reject H
o
if z
<

1.645
12.2020)5.0
2 (10
=+=
z
Since z
<

1.645, we reject H
o.
The number of errors has decreased, thereforethe training is effective.Reject H
o
if P(X
10)
<
0.05X
N(20, 20)P(X
10)
05.00168.09832.01 )124.2( )
<== ==
Z  P
2020-10.5P(Z
Since P(X
10)
<
0.05, we reject H
o.
The number of errors has decreased,therefore the training is effective.
2.The number of bacterial colonies that develop in dishes of nutrientexposed to an infected environment has a Poisson distribution withmean 7.5. Experiments are conducted to determine the effectivenessof an antibiotic spray in reducing the number of bacterial coloniesthat develop. In one experiment when three dishes were sprayed, thenumber of bacterial colonies that develop was 13. Stating suitablenull and alternative hypotheses, determine whether or not this resultprovides significant evidence at the 5% level that the spray is effective.3.The number of flaws per metre of fabric follows a Poisson distribution with mean 2. With the aim of reducing the number of flaws, the fabric issubjected to a different treatment process. After this treatment asignificance test is devised to gauge whether it has been successful. Thetest states that the number of flaws has decreased if a randomly selected
3