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Mercyhurst Fall 2012 Poll for Release

Mercyhurst Fall 2012 Poll for Release

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Published by: PoliticsPA on Sep 24, 2012
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09/24/2012

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2012 Presidential Election-Pennsylvania
 A Survey of 522 LikelyVoters in Pennsylvania
Prepared by: The Mercyhurst Centerfor Applied Politics at MercyhurstUniversityJoseph M. Morris, DirectorRolfe D. Peterson, MethodologistJake Jaskiewicz, Project ManagerBrooke Miller, Project Manager
 
Table of Contents
Summary of Findings
…………………………………………………………
....1Pennsylvania Elections.
………….……………………………………….1
 Religion and the Presidential Election
………………………………….
..2Pennsylvania
Voter ID Law……………………………………
.
……
.......3Super PACs
………………………
............................................................4Frequency Re
 port……………………………………………………………
.
…..5
 
Methodology…………..………………………………………….……………..1
9About the Mercyhurst Center for
Applied Politics…………………………
...
20
 
1 
Summary of Findings
A Mercyhurst Center for Applied Politics poll of 522 likely voters (MOE +/-4.29%)
in Pennsylvania finds that the Democratic Party’s candidates for president
and US Senator enjoy comfortable leads over their Republican Party opponents. Inthe presidential race relatively few voters remain undecided. Although most
Pennsylvania voters are aware of Mitt Romney’s affiliation with the Church of 
Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints (Mormon Church), most dismiss myths andnegative s
tereotypes associated with the church as false and say that candidates’
religion is not an important factor in their choice in presidential elections. Most of 
Pennsylvania’s voters say that they are aware of the state’s new voter identification
law, and most are generally supportive of the legislation. However, Republicansare far more likely to see voter ID laws as necessary and beneficial than areDemocrats. Finally, less than a majority of voters have heard of superPACs. Those who have heard of them have a negative view of their impact on the2012 elections.
The Presidential and US Senate Races in Pennsylvania
In the two high-profile races of this fall, Democratic Party candidates enjoycomfortable leads over their Republican opponents among likely voters inPennsylvania. If the election was held today, 48% of likely voters in Pennsylvaniasay they would vote for Barack Obama, 40% for Mitt Romney and only 6% saythat they remain undecided. The 8-
 point gap reaffirms Obama’s grip on the
Keystone state. Of those who say they are voting for Barack Obama, 91% indicatethat they are very certain to vote for the candidate, while an additional 9% aresomewhat certain.Among those who say they will vote for Barack Obama, 63% say they will do sobecause they strongly support him, 19% because they support him withreservations, and 17% because they oppose Mitt Romney. Among those who willvote for Mitt Romney, 91% indicate that they are very certain to vote for thecandidate, while an additional 9% are somewhat certain. Looking at the reasonsfor supporting Romney, 43% say they will do so because they strongly supporthim, 18% because they support him with reservations, and 39% because theyoppose Barack Obama. This suggests that more
of Mitt Romney’s support may be
 

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