Discrete Probability Distributions

Define the terms random variable and probability distribution.

Distinguish between a discrete and continuous probability
distributions.

Calculate the mean, variance, and standard deviation of a discrete
probability distribution.
Describe the characteristics and compute probabilities using the
binomial probability distribution.

Random Variables
A random variable is a numerical
value determined by the outcome
of an experiment.


A probability distribution is the listing of all
possible outcomes of an experiment and the
corresponding probability.
Types of Probability
Distributions
A discrete probability
distribution can assume only
certain outcomes.

A continuous probability
distribution can assume an infinite
number of values within a given range.

Types of Probability
Distributions
Examples of a discrete distribution
are:
The number of students in a class.
The number of children in a family.
The number of cars entering a
carwash in a hour.

Types of Probability
Distributions
Examples of a continuous distribution
include:
The distance students travel to class.
The time it takes an executive to drive
to work.
The length of an afternoon nap.
The length of time of a particular
phone call.

Features of a Discrete
Distribution
The main features of a discrete
probability distribution are:
The sum of the probabilities of the
various outcomes is 1.00.
The probability of a particular
outcome is between 0 and 1.00.
The outcomes are mutually exclusive.
Consider a random experiment in
which a coin is tossed three
times. Let x be the number of
heads. Let H represent the
outcome of a head and T the
outcome of a tail.

EXAMPLE 1 continued
The possible outcomes for such
an experiment will be:
TTT, TTH, THT, THH,
HTT, HTH, HHT, HHH.

Thus the possible values of x (number of
heads) are 0,1,2,3.

The outcome of zero heads occurred
once.
The outcome of one head occurred
three times.
The outcome of two heads occurred
three times.
The outcome of three heads occurred
once.
From the definition of a random
variable, x as defined in this
experiment, is a random variable.
The Mean of a Discrete
Probability Distribution
The mean:
reports the central location of the data.
is the long-run average value of the
random variable.
is also referred to as its expected
value, E(X), in a probability distribution.
is a weighted average.
The Mean of a Discrete
Probability Distribution
The mean is computed by the
formula:




)] ( [ x xP E =

Is the mean
The Variance of a Discrete
Probability Distribution
The variance measures the amount
of spread (variation) of a
distribution.
The variance of a discrete
distribution is denoted by the Greek
letter (sigma squared).
The standard deviation is the
square root of
2.

o
o
The Variance of a Discrete
Probability Distribution
The variance of a discrete
probability distribution is
computed from the formula:
)] ( ) [(
2 2
x P x o E =
Dan Desch,
owner of College
Painters, studied
his records for
the past 20
weeks and
reports the
following number
of houses
painted per
week:
# o f H o u s e s
P a i n t e d
W e e k s
10 5
11 6
12 7
13 2
Probability Distribution:
Number of houses
painted, x
Probability, P(x)
10 .25
11 .30
12 .35
13 .10
Total 1.00


Compute the mean number of
houses painted per week:
3 . 11
) 10 )(. 13 ( ) 35 )(. 12 ( ) 30 )(. 11 ( ) 25 )(. 10 (
)] ( [ ) (
=
+ + + =
E = = x xP x E
Compute the variance of the
number of houses painted
per week:
91 . 0
2890 . 0 1715 . 0 0270 . 0 4225 . 0
) 10 (. ) 3 . 11 13 ( ... ) 25 (. ) 3 . 11 10 (
)] ( ) [(
2 2
2 2
=
+ + + =
+ + =
E = x P x o
SUPPOSE 70% OF ALL INDIANS
BELIEVE CLEANING UP
ENVIRONMENT IS AN IMPORTANT
ISSUE . WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY
OF RANDOMLY SAMPLING 4 INDIANS
AND HAVING EXACTLY TWO OF THEM
SAY THAT THEY BELIEVE CLEANING
UP ENVIRONMENT IS AN IMPORTANT
ISSUE.
Let E represent the success of getting a
person who believes cleaning up
environment is an important issue. For this
p= 0.7
Let N represent failure of getting a person
who believes cleaning up environment is
an important issue

ANSWER : 0.2646
Binomial Probability
Distribution
The binomial distribution has
the following characteristics:
An outcome of an experiment is classified into
one of two mutually exclusive categories, such as
a success or failure.
The data collected are the results of counts.
The probability of success stays the same for
each trial.
The trials are independent.

Binomial Probability Distribution
To construct a binomial
distribution, let
n be the number of trials
x be the number of observed
successes
p be the probability of success on
each trial
Binomial Probability Distribution
The formula for the binomial
probability distribution is:
x n x
x n
p p C x P

= ) 1 ( ) (
The Labor Department reports that
20% of the workforce in Mobile is
unemployed. From a sample of 14
workers, calculate the following
probabilities:
Exactly three are unemployed.
At least three are unemployed.
At least none are unemployed.
The probability of exactly 3:




The probability of at least 3 is:



2501 .
) 0859 )(. 0080 )(. 364 (
) 20 . 1 ( ) 20 (. ) 3 (
11 3
3 14
=
=
= C P
551 . 000 . ... 172 . 250 .
) 80 (. ) 20 (. ... ) 80 (. ) 20 (. ) 3 (
0 14
14 14
11 3
3 14
= + + + =
+ + = > C C x P
The probability of at least one
being unemployed.


956 . 044 . 1
) 20 . 1 ( ) 20 (. 1
) 0 ( 1 ) 1 (
14 0
0 14
= =
=
= >
C
P x P
Mean & Variance of the
Binomial Distribution
The mean is found by:


The variance is found by:
np =
) 1 (
2
p np = o
p=.2 and n=14.

Hence, the mean is:
= n = 14(.2) = 2.8.
The variance is:

= (14)(.2)(.8) =2.24.

p
) 1 (
2
p np = o
Finite Population
A finite population is a population
consisting of a fixed number of known
individuals, objects, or
measurements. Examples include:

The number of students in this class.
The number of cars in the parking lot.

The National Air Safety Board has a list
of 10 reported safety violations.
Suppose only 4 of the reported
violations are actual violations and the
Safety Board will only be able to
investigate five of the violations. What
is the probability that three of five
violations randomly selected to be
investigated are actually violations?
238 .
252
) 15 ( 4
) 3 ( = = P
Poisson Probability Distribution
Discrete distribution that is
constructed from the probability of
occurrence of rare events over an
interval: focusses only on the number
of discrete occurences over some
interval or continuum
Poisson experiment does not have a
given number of trials (n) as binomial
experiment does.
Poisson distribution describes occurences
of rare events . Poisson distribution often
is used to describe the number of random
arrivals per some time interval
The number of random customer arrivals
per 5 minute interval is an example of
Poisson distribution.
Models used in queuing theory are based
on the assumption that Poisson
distribution is the proper distribution to
describe random arrival rates over a
period of time
Poisson Probability Distribution
The Poisson distribution can be
described mathematically using the
formula:



where is the mean number of
successes in a particular interval of
time, e is the constant 2.71828, and x is
the number of successes.
!
) (
x
e
x P
u x
=

The Poisson probability distribution is useful
for determining the probability of a number
of occurrences over a given period of time
or within a given area or volume. That is,
the Poisson random variable counts
occurrences over a continuous interval of
time or space. It can also be used to
calculate approximate binomial
probabilities when the probability of success
is small (ps0.05) and the number of trials is
large (n>20).

Poisson assumptions:
It describes rare events
Each occcurence is independent of other
occurences
The probability that any number of events will
occur in a given interval is independent of
where the interval begins.
Expected number of occurences must hold
constant throughout an experiment.
Bank customers arrive randomly
on weekdays afternoon at an
average of 3.2 customers every 4
minutes . What is the probability
of having more than seven
customers in a 4 minute interval
on a weekday afternoon.
A bank has an average random
arrival rate of 3.2 customers every
4 minutes . What is the probability
of getting exactly 10 customers in
an 8 minute interval?


Discrete and Continuous
Random Variables - Revisited
A discrete random variable:
counts occurrences
has a countable number of possible values
has discrete jumps between successive values
has measurable probability associated with individual
values
probability is height
3 2 1 0
0 . 4
0 . 3
0 . 2
0 . 1
0 . 0
C 1
P
(
x

)

B i n o m i a l : n = 3 p = . 5
For example:
Binomial
n=3 p=.5

x P(x)
0 0.125
1 0.375
2 0.375
3 0.125
1.000
A continuous random variable:
measures (e.g.: height, weight, speed, value,
duration, length)
has an uncountably infinite number of possible values
moves continuously from value to value
has no measurable probability associated with
individual values
probability is area
6 5 4 3 2 1
0 . 3
0 . 2
0 . 1
0 . 0
M i n u t e s
P

(
x

)

M i n u t e s t o C o m p l e t e T a s k
From a Discrete to a
Continuous Distribution
The time it takes to complete a task can be subdivided into:
6 . 5 6 . 0 5 . 5 5 . 0 4 . 5 4 . 0 3 . 5 3 . 0 2 . 5 2 . 0 1 . 5 1 . 0
0 . 1 5
0 . 1 0
0 . 0 5
0 . 0 0
M i n u t e s
P

(

x

)

M i n u t e s t o C o m p l e t e T a s k : B y H a l f - M i n u t e s
0.0 .
Half-Minute Intervals
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
M i n u t e s
P
(
x

)

M i n u t e s t o C o m p l e t e T a s k : F o u r t h s o f a M i n u t e
Quarter-Minute Intervals
M i n u t e s
P

(

x

)

M i n u t e s t o C o m p l e t e T a s k : E i g h t h s o f a M i n u t e
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Eighth-Minute Intervals
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Minutes
f

(
z

)

Or even infinitesimally small intervals
When a continuous random variable has been subdivided into
infinitesimally small intervals, a measurable probability can
only be associated with an interval of values, and the
probability is given by the area beneath the probability density
function corresponding to that interval. In this example, the
shaded area represents P(2 s X s 3).
A continuous random variable is a random variable that can take on any value in an
interval of numbers.

The probabilities associated with a continuous random variable X are determined by
the probability density function of the random variable. The function, denoted
f(x), has the following properties.

1. f(x) > 0 for all x.
2. The probability that X will be between two numbers a and b is equal to the
area under f(x) between a and b.
3. The total area under the curve of f(x) is equal to 1.00.

The cumulative distribution function of a continuous random variable:

F(x) = P(X s x) =Area under f(x) between the smallest possible value of X (often -)
and the point x.

Continuous Random Variables