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Rainfall Cycles in Ancient India

Rainfall Cycles in Ancient India

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Published by Narayana Iyengar
Inter annual variability patterns of monsoon rainfall as described in ancient Indian texts are presented in this paper. It is interesting to note that the dominant periods were taken to be 3,5,7,18 and 60 years. Modern time series analysis of actual seasonal rainfall data of the past 100 years shows significant spectral peaks near the above periods. It is now known that the ENSO oscillations of 2-3 year period explains maximum variance of the year to year fluctuations. The Venus visibility portent of Parāśara, stated also in the Arthaśāstra appears to be a proxy for this ENSO signature.
Inter annual variability patterns of monsoon rainfall as described in ancient Indian texts are presented in this paper. It is interesting to note that the dominant periods were taken to be 3,5,7,18 and 60 years. Modern time series analysis of actual seasonal rainfall data of the past 100 years shows significant spectral peaks near the above periods. It is now known that the ENSO oscillations of 2-3 year period explains maximum variance of the year to year fluctuations. The Venus visibility portent of Parāśara, stated also in the Arthaśāstra appears to be a proxy for this ENSO signature.

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Categories:Types, Research, History
Published by: Narayana Iyengar on Aug 07, 2009
Copyright:Traditional Copyright: All rights reserved

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@IUVCZIELA NCVBU
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v`iu {lu trv vc lny tzleviela lttaielvicn.Gcz bplmtab!
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itlz 
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lzl
! v`b ealuuielavbpv cn lkzieravrzb! fcbu ncv zbecmmbnfv`iu eyeab.
Ecmtabp wlziljiaivy tlvvbznu
Iv `lu jbbn ncvbf v`lv v`b lneibnv wlzi-ljiaivy fbuezitvicnu {bzb buubnvilaay|rlaivlviwb! vc jb rnfbzuvccf jy tbzucnlabptbzibneb. V`b {czf
Eivvla 
Č
rubf ubw-bzla vimbu in v`b
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 u
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itlz 
ČŘ
lzl
! `lu v`bmblnink cg jbink mcfbzlvb! uimialz vcv`b mcfbzn lwbzlkb. V`b uvlvb cg zlinglaain cv`bz yblzu {lu elaijzlvbf {iv` zbutbevvc ure` l yblz. V`b
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ČŘ
lzl
! ltlzvgzcm v`b ubwbn-yblz eyeab! aiuvu ybvlncv`bz tlvvbzn {`ie` iu |rivb ecmtabp.V`iu `lu gcrz uvlvbu fbncvbf lu
lviwz 
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wz 
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i! urwz 
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vi
lnf
eivvla 
Č
. V`bub gcrz vytbu cg zlinglaa eln jb vzlnualvbf lubpebuuiwb! fbgieibnv! urggieibnv lnf nczmlazbutbeviwbay. V`b zlinglaa gcz v`b mcn-uccn ublucn iu fbeifbf jy v`b tcuivicn cg mccn (
nlhu
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lvzl
) lv v`b utzink b|rincp.V`b
nlhulvzl
ubzibu uvlzvbf {iv`
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vvih 
Č
!inearfink
 Lj`ioiv 
lu in v`b Wbfie tbzicf(:nf―5zf miaabnnirm
JEB
). Nczmla zlin-glaa {lu bptbevbf cnay {`bn v`b b|rincpmccn ecineifbf {iv` biv`bz v`b
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cz v`b
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nlhulvzl
. Iv {lu fbgieibnv {`bnmccn lv b|rincp {lu {iv`
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vvih 
Č
 ! @luvl
!
Lnrz 
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f`l
cz 
R. J`
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fzl
. Iv {luurggieibnv {`bn mccn {lu {iv`
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i
!
 Eivz 
Č
!
Wiu
Č
h`
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cz 
 Zbwlvi.
In laa v`b cv`bz <0 elubu v`b zlinglaa {craf jb bpebuuiwb.[`lvbwbz jb v`b jluiu cg v`iu tzckncuiu!v`b invbzbuvink gblvrzb cg v`iu tzctcuivicniu v`b in`bzbnv <0―<9-yblz eyeab cg v`bgcrz vytbu cg zlinglaa. V`iu lziubu crv cg v`b ecineifbneb cg v`b arnlz lnf ucalz eyeabu lv v`b ljcwb tbzicf! {iv` tcuuijabbzzcz cg cnb
nlhu
  
lvzl
tcuivicn. V`iu iuuimialz vc v`b
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Č
`r-e`lhzl
eyeab cg <0yblzu mbnvicnbf ljcwb. [`bv`bz cz ncvv`b lneibnvu hnb{ v`b eczzbev zblucnu gcz v`iu eyeab! v`b glev zbmlinu v`lv l {blh <0―<9-yblz tblh eln jb cjubzwbf in v`butbevzrm cg mlny zbla kbct`yuiela vimb-ubzibu flvl
9!<4
.Ybv lncv`bz wlziljiaivy tlvvbzn {lu jlubf cn v`b tcuivicn cg v`b mccn {`bnv`b gizuv zlinu ceerzzbf lv v`b uvlzv cg v`bublucn. V`iu iu uimialz in utiziv vc v`bljcwb gcrz uvlvbu cg zlinglaa! jrv v`bfbvliau lzb figgbzbnv! uineb v`b |rlnvivycg ublucnla zlinglaa iu gczbeluv in Fzcn
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lmblurzbu. V`iu tlvvbzn `lu jbbn ezivielaayinwbuviklvbf {iv` uvlviuviela fbvliau lazblfylnf `bneb {iaa ncv jb fbvliabf `bzb
<<
.
Invzl-lnnrla wlziljiaivy
Lu iu {baa hnc{n! zlinglaa bp`ijivu ecn-uifbzljab mcnv`-vc-mcnv` wlzilvicn {iv`inl kiwbn yblz. V`b vbpvu
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itlz 
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lzl
lnf
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`lv-ulm`iv 
Č
v`zc{ ucmb aik`v cn `c{v`iu iuurb {lu lffzbuubf in lneibnv Infil.Uvlzvink gzcm v`b Wbfie tbzicf! iv {lu{baa hnc{n v`lv v`b zliny ublucn {lu fb- tbnfbnv cn v`b urn lnf ncv cn v`b mccn.Uineb v`b mczb lneibnv vimb-hbbtink {lu jlubf cn v`b mccn! v`b lnnrla zlinglaaeyeab {craf `lwb nbebuuivlvbf uyne`zc-nilvicn cg v`b ucalz lnf v`b arnlz yblz.V`b Ulnuhziv {czf
wlzu
  
l
mblnu zlinglaa jrv fbncvbu yblz lauc. Uimialzay! lncv`bz  tctralz {czf gcz yblz iu
ljfl
! aivbzlaaykiwbz-cg-{lvbz. V`ru! nlmink v`b mcnv`ulnf ublucnu {iv` zbutbev vc v`b urn inlffivicn vc v`b lazblfy bpiuvink arnlz mcnv`u {lu invzcfrebf. V`iu iu |rivbbwifbnv in v`b Ylorzwbfie vbpvu {`ie`nlmb v`b v{bawb ucalz mcnv`u lu
Mlf`r!
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f`lwl
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Ul`luyl
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Vltl
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Vltluyl
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uvlnfugcz v`b utzink mcnv` in tctralz tlzalnebbwbn nc{! bpebtv v`lv v`iu iu nbiv`bz ulmb lu v`b arnlz mcnv`
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Mbu
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(
E`ivvizli
in Vlmia)! cg v`b tzbubnv-fly zbaikicru lamlnleu. Aleh cg uyne`zcnilvicn cg v`b tzbubnv @infrucalz elabnflz (
 ucrzlm
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nl tlne
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nkl
){iv` v`b ublucnu iu frb vc {zcnk invbz- tzbvlvicn cg lneibnv vbpvu. V`bub {bzblttzctzilvb gcz v`biz vimbu! jrv nc{ nbbfeczzbevicn frb vc tzbebuuicn cg b|rincpbu.In lffivicn! v`b zbalvicn jbv{bbn v`b uc-alz cfile fbginbf {iv` zbutbev vc v`bb|rincevila tcinv lnf v`b gipbf uifbzblacfile (
nlhu
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lvzl
) cg v`b Wbfie tbzicf{lu miurnfbzuvccf jy ucmb ingarbnvilalrv`czu cn luvzcacky. V`ru {b ubb v`bWbfie ucalz 
rvvlz 
Č
 yln
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cz v`b {invbz uca-uvieb fly jbink b|rlvbf {iv`
mlhlzl ulnhz 
Č
nvi
!
 
{`ie` in vrzn iu {zcnkayu`c{n vc jb ceerzzink cn cz ljcrv <6Olnrlzy! {`bzblu v`b eczzbev flvb u`craf`lwb jbbn lzcrnf :: Fbebmjbz! v`bu`czvbuv fly in v`b eiwia elabnflz. @bneb!vc mlt lneibnv ublucnla ingczmlvicn lukiwbn in Ulnuhziv vbpvu vc mcfbzn vimbu! leczzbevicn cg ljcrv v`zbb {bbhu iu nbebu-ulzy. V`iu iu buubnvila vc lttzbeilvb v`b{iv`in-yblz zlinglaa tlvvbzn lu fbuezijbf jy lneibnv lrv`czu in vbzmu cg v`b ucalz 
nlhu
  
lvzl
ncvlvicn! {`ie` {lu gczmralvbf{`bn v`b urn lv wbznla b|rincp (4
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acnki-vrfb) {lu uvlvicnbf nblz v`b wiuijab uvlz 
l
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wini
(Jbvl-Lzivibu3) in v`b :nf ebnvrzy
EB
. Tzbubnvay! v`b b|rincp in v`b eiwiaelabnflz iu cn :: Mlze` lnf `bneb ig {bvlah cg 
l
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wini-zlin
! leeczfink vc lneibnv tzlevieb! iv `lu vc jb frzink v`b flvbu :<Mlze`―5 Ltzia lnf ncv <5 Ltzia―:7Ltzia! lu u`c{n in v`b vzlfivicnla laml-nleu
<:
. Wlz 
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`l-mi`izl {lu {baa l{lzb cg v`b ecnnbevicn jbv{bbn v`b mcnuccnublucn lnf v`b tcuivicn cg v`b urn. Ine`ltvbz :0! wbzub :4 cg `iu
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`lv-ulm`iv 
Č
!zlinu lzb ulif vc jb ebzvlin {`bn v`b urn tluubu v`zcrk` v`b luvbzium
Č
zfzl
. Ig v`bwraklvb lamlnleu lzb gcaac{bf! v`iu ecz-zbutcnfu vc :: Ornb―2 Oray! {`bzblu v`bcjubzwlvicnla zburavu cg v`b lneibnvu ecz-zbutcnf tzbubnvay {iv` 54 Mly―<< Ornb.V`iu iu {baa hnc{n vc jb v`b tbzicf cg cnubv cg v`b ucrv`{buv mcnuccn cwbz alzkb tlzvu cg v`b urjecnvinbnv. Ure`ecnuifbzlvicnu jbecmb tlzvieralzay im- tczvlnv {`bn wiaalkbzu rub v`biz gcahacziehnc{abfkb cg tzcwbzju ure` lu ‐ig iv fcbuncv zlin in v`b
 @luvl
(luvbzium)! cnb’umcv`bz {iaa lauc ncv kiwb gccf’. V`iuu`craf jb vlhbn vc eczzbutcnf vc 6―<7Ubtvbmjbz! {`bzblu v`b
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nklu
mlzh v`iu gcz :; Ubtvbmjbz―<4 Cevcjbz. V`bziuh luuceilvbf {iv` {zcnk ifbnvigielvicncg v`b tcuivicn cg v`b urn lmcnk v`b
nlhu
  
lvzl
inezblubu {`bn ubbf-uc{inkctbzlvicnu lzb rnfbzvlhbn jlubf cn ln-eibnv jbaibgu. Gcz bplmtab! in ucmb lzblucg Hlznlvlhl! glzmbzu jbaibwb v`lv uc{-ink frzink
 trnlzwlur
zlinu ablfu vc lzie` `lzwbuv cg kzcrnfnrvu. V`iu tbzicfu`craf jb vlhbn lu <:―:2 Ornb lnf ncv7―9 Oray lu u`c{n in v`b
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nklu
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Fiueruuicn
Yblz-vc-yblz wlzilvicn in v`b lmcrnv cg zlinglaa frzink v`b mcnuccn ublucn iu cg ecnuifbzljab erzzbnv invbzbuv vc tbctab inubwbzla {lahu cg aigb. V`lv v`iu {lu ucbwbn in lneibnv vimbu u`craf ncv jb urz- tziuink! ecnuifbzink v`b uvzcnk fbtbnf-bneb cg lkzieravrzb cn zlinglaa. [`lvvrznu crv vc jb zbmlzhljab iu v`lv ucmbuiknigielnv cueiaalvczy gblvrzbu in mcn-uccn zlinglaa lu {b hnc{ v`bm vcfly!{bzb lazblfy hnc{n vc v`b lneibnvu. @c{v`by {bzb ljab vc fbeit`bz v`bub uiknl-vrzbu iu l mlvvbz cg ecnobevrzb. [b `lwbvc urzmiub v`lv bwbn ig zbeczfu {bzb ncvmlinvlinbf lu in mcfbzn flyu! lv abluvv`cub hinkfcmu lnf tzcwinebu v`lv gca-ac{bf v`b
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 uvzl
cg Hlrv
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iayl `lf lmbv`cf gcz mblurzink zlinglaa. V`b nblz v`zbb-yblz eyeab hnc{n tzbubnvay lu v`bBNUC (Ba Ninc Ucrv`bzn Cueiaalvicn){lu eablzay hnc{n vc Hlrviayl in vbzmu

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