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Year to year variation of Indian monsoon rainfall is described qualitatively in some ancient Sanskrit texts.
Interestingly, these are cyclic with periods of 3, 5, 7, 18 and 60 years. Time series analysis of actual sea-
sonal rainfall data shows that at very near the above periods the spectrum has significant peaks. The Venus
visibility portent stated in the Arthaśāstra appears to be a proxy for the near three-year fluctuation cycle in
the rainfall.
The season that brings rainfall to large farmers and villagers to talk of a season making a forecast should refer to the first
parts of the country, now called the mon- being similar to the one a few years month of the season. Now, Venus as a
soon, has left its imprint in all types of back. They intuitively recognize IAV in morning object is visible for about eight
literature starting from the Rgveda. Vedic terms of similarity or lack of it, com- months and becomes invisible for about
literature describes figuratively the evapo- pared with some past year fresh in their 50 days, before rising in the evening in
ration–rainfall cycle (Rgveda: 1.164.51), memory. This would be clearly due to the western sky. The synodic period of
and knows the sun as the cause of rain- the influence that rainfall has on their Venus is nearly 584 days. Hence, once
fall. It even has a hymn dedicated to the personal lives. A question that arises in seen in the early part of the monsoon
frogs who sound in chorus at the start of this connection is; considering the deep season, Venus will not be seen in the sub-
the rains, much like the students learning influence that monsoon has had on sequent season, which is only one year
the Veda. While a bounteous monsoon Indian culture and life, how was IAV away. Also, when seen next after its
kept the people happy, its vagaries were described and characterized? Was there cycle of 584 days, the season will not be
dreaded. Stories of droughts and failure any effort in ancient India to quantify rainy. But, interestingly, after one more
of rainfall were quite common in the leg- IAV? The present note attempts to round, that is, after nearly three years,
ends, particularly when people shifted their address these questions by tracing IAV- Venus would be visible in the beginning
location. One such 12-year long drought related descriptions in ancient Sanskrit of the monsoon season. Thus, the corre-
was the reason for Bhadrabāhu and his literature. lation prescribed by Kautilya is based on
followers to emigrate from Bihar to dis- an uncanny observation of occurrence of
tant Karnataka in the 3rd century BCE1. two contemporaneous natural events with
Failure of rainfall for 12-years might be Venus appearance cycle nearly the same period. Since any such
an exaggeration, but people should have cyclic trend is not perfectly periodic, the
been as eager as now are to have a reli- Kautilya’s Arthaśāstra is a book on correlation will drift over time with no
able forecast on what they could expect Statecraft, with considerable information unique practical implication. This could
from the clouds. The most significant on administrative procedures of the gov- be the reason for the development of
feature of the monsoon is its annual re- ernments of his days (c. 4th century longer cycles for predictive purposes.
4
currence and the year-to-year variation in BCE) . He describes under the chapter on
the amount of rainfall, called inter annual agriculture (II.24) how to measure rain-
variability (IAV). At present, IAV is fall and also gives the amount of rainfall Five-year cycle
characterized by fixing a normal (time (presumably some kind of average) in the
average) and expressing the yearly rain- important provinces of his kingdom. In the Vedic period the country followed
fall in terms of percentage variation Since rainfall figures were collected by a luni-solar calendar. While the original
about this long-term normal. It is now empowered officials and used by the form and evolution of this is not known
well known that the variation comprises decision makers, Kautilya’s methods are in all its details, what has come down to
of oscillatory patterns around 2–3, 5–7, expected to be rational. Quite intrigu- us from the Vedānga Jyotisa5 is a calendar
11–12, 18–20 and 60 years2. Narasimha ingly, he mentions that rainfall for the comprising five years as a unit, called the
and Kailas3 through wavelet analysis season depends on the visibility of Venus Yuga. It appears that this calendar was
found almost the same periods for the (tasyopalabdhih……śukrodayāstamayacār- used till about 4–5 century CE, when the
first four modes. These are not perfect ebhyah……śukrādvrstiriti||). At first yearly calendar of the siddhāntic astro-
repeating cycles, but narrow-band oscil- reading this appears to be an astrological nomy became popular. Varāha-mihira, in
lations with slowly varying amplitude prescription, based more on belief rather his Brhat-samhitā6, presents the older
and phase around the indicated central pe- than empirical observations. However, five-year division for rainfall prognosis.
riods. The above quantitative understand- on closer scrutiny this statement is seen This appears in Chapter 8, verses 24
ing is based on the analysis of long-time to reflect the near three-year oscillation and 25.
series data of Indian rainfall for the last in monsoon rainfall. Kautilya expects
100 years. However, all persons depend- good rainfall if Venus were to be sighted Samvatsaro’gnih parivatsaro’rka
ent on the monsoon for their profession in the eastern sky during the monsoon idādikah śītamayūkhamālī|
recognize IAV of the seasonal rainfall in season. The season being of four months Prajāpatiścapyanuvatsarah
their own way. It is common among according to the text, this precursor for syādidvatsarah śailasutāpatiśca||
Edited and published by P. Balaram, Current Science Association, Bangalore 560 080.
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