MARITIME SYSTEM DESIGN METHODOLOGY

RAWSON

MARITIME SYSTEM DESIGN METHODOLOGY

K. J. Rawson Hea! of $orwar! Desi"n

Ministry of Defence S%i& De&art#ent

nite! Kin"!o#

A'STRA(T T%e &a&er a!!resses t%e nee! for a #et%o!o)o"y in !esi"n an! s*r+eys t%e essentia) feat*res, t%at is o-.ecti+e/ creati+e/ -o*n!e! an! iterati+e. A !isci&)ine is e0&)ore! an! creati+ity wit%in t%at !isci&)ine enco*ra"e!. T%e !isci&)ine re1*ires t%at t%e o-.ecti+e s%o*)! !efine t%e -o*n!aries an! constraints wit%in ei"%t arenas/ econo#ic/ socia)/ &o)itica)/ "eo"ra&%ica)/ &%ysica)/ or"ani2ationa)/ in!*stria) an! te#&ora) an! eac% is -rief)y !isc*sse!. T%e creati+e effort is #o!e)e! so t%at it #ay -e #ani&*)ate! for t%e -est. $or#s of &%ysica) an! -e%a+iora) #o!e)s are to*c%e! *&on. Si0 ways in w%ic% ine0actit*!e #ay -e e0&resse! are -rief)y e0&)ore!/ &ro-a-i)ity of occ*rrence/ *ti)ity of conse1*ence/ &reference !isco*nt rate/ #i)itary wort%/ cost -enefit ana)ysis an! f*22y set t%eory. $ina))y t%e +a)*e of a !esi"n #et%o!o)o"y is assesse! an! t%e &)ace of eac% of t%e a&&roac%es to !ecision #a3in" is &ro&ose!. (ontents Desi"n #et%o!o)o"y 4rinci&)es of !esi"n 'o*n!aries 4rocess of !esi"n Mo!e)in" Dea)in" wit% ine0actit*!e 5a)*e of a !esi"n #et%o!o)o"y References

Desi"n Met%o!o)o"y

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MARITIME SYSTEM DESIGN METHODOLOGY

RAWSON

6A syste# is a set of reso*rces or"ani2e! to ac%ie+e a state! o-.ecti+e7 Li3e )i+in"/ !esi"n is a -)en! of science an! art/ of !isci&)ine an! in!isci&)ine. Si#&)e rationa)i2ation of t%e &rocess an! &%i)oso&%y of !esi"n %as not so far -een #ar3e!)y s*ccessf*) an! yet it !oes e0%i-it a &attern s*sce&ti-)e to so#e "enera)i2ation. T%ere can -e no !o*-t t%at it is an inte))ect*a) en!ea+o*r of t%e "reatest i#&ortance for it creates wea)t% in t%e -roa!est sense of t%at wor!. It is !eser+in" t%erefore of consi!era-)e in+est#ent. T%e o-.ecti+e of t%is &a&er is to s*r+ey t%e !esi"n &rocess an! its associate! !isci&)ines to assess t%eir &otentia) for *sef*) !e+e)o&#ent in enric%in" #an3in! 8 or at )east/ #ariti#e #an3in!. T%ere %as -een ti#e to esca&e fro# t%e narcotic !etac%#ent of t%e syste#s en"ineerin" w%ic% -eca#e &o&*)ar !*rin" t%e si0ties an! to see its +irt*es wit%o*t its e0tre#es. $rosc% 9:; first !rew attention to t%e nee! to a&&)y t%e o-.ecti+e a&&raisa) of syste#s en"ineerin" to t%e enforce! !isci&)ine of syste#s en"ineerin" itse)f. Not t%at syste#s en"ineerin" s%o*)! -e re"ar!e! as !esi"n/ any #ore t%an t%e e0traction of a toot% can -e re"ar!e! as t%e cessation of &ain. It is a #eans 8 one of #any 8 an! not an! en!. T%ose w%o %a+e ta*"%t s%i& !esi"n wi)) %a+e face! t%e #et%o!o)o"y !i)e##a. St*!ents w%o are ea"er to create s%i&s an! w%o %a+e waite! #any years &atient)y ac1*irin" s3i))s to a&&)y to t%is &innac)e of t%eir a#-itions/ !o not ta3e 3in!)y to t%e a-stractions 9<; of a #et%o!o)o"y. $ace! -y t%is/ #any teac%ers inte#&erate)y tr*st r*)es/ for#*)as an! i#&recations of t%eir st*!ents to ena-)e t%e# to satisfy s*c% )*st. Yet t%ere is a nee! for a #et%o!o)o"y to ac%ie+e t%e e0&ansi+e t%o*"%t an! fr*itf*) array of so)*tions to &ro-)e#s in t%is co#&etiti+e wor)!. At t%e +ery )east/ t%ere is a nee! f*))y to reco"ni2e a "i+en &ro-)e# an! its -o*n!aries/ t%e too)s t%at #i"%t -e *sef*) in t%e ac%ie+e#ent of t%e -est so)*tion an! t%e effect of t%e so)*tion *&on a)) t%at is containe! wit%in t%e -o*n!aries. T%e creation an! a!o&tion of a !esi"n #et%o!o)o"y is a )on" an! !iffic*)t &at% to trea! w%ic% #ay a-an!on ear)y. It is -y no #eans certain t%at it &ro!*ces -etter so)*tions t%an int*iti+e sta-s an! is so#et%in" of an action of fait%. As )on" as 9=; !esi"n is t%e &rinci&a) #ar3 t%at !istin"*is%es t%e &rofessions fro# t%e sciences/ &rofessiona) en"ineers #*st e0&)ore t%e aca!e#ic as&ects of !esi"n wit% o-.ecti+ity an! 2ea).

4rinci&)es of Desi"n T%ere are fo*r essentia) feat*res of !esi"n. It is o-.ecti+e/ creati+e/ -o*n!e! an! iterati+e. $ro# t%is/ a s*ccinct !efinition can -e !eri+e!. 6 Design is a creative, iterative process serving a bounded objective.7 Ot%er !efinitions o#it at )east one of t%ese fo*r feat*res> 6the optimum solution to the sum of the true needs of a particular set of circumstances7 6take initiation of purposeful change7 6relating product to situation to give satisfaction7 $ie)!en7s 9?; !efinition/ on t%e ot%er %an!/ "oes too far -y &rescri-in" t%e o-.ecti+e an! so#e of t%e #eans of ac%ie+e#ent> 6the use of scientific principles, technical information and imagination in the definition of a mechanical structure, machine or system to perform prespecified functions with maximum economy and efficiency7. T%e fo*r essentia) feat*res of !esi"n constit*te t%e &rinci&)es of !esi"n an! eac% #ay -e a!!resse! in t*rn. An o-.ecti+e of 6satisfaction of an Owner7s Re1*ire#ents7 &ro+i!es t%e narrowest &ers&ecti+e for a na+a) arc%itect. It is )i3e Mic%e)an"e)o7s o-.ecti+e 6to &)ease Go!7. Ne+ert%e)ess/ -ot% are o-.ecti+es/ t%e first narrow)y -o*n!e! an! t%e )atter i))@!efine!. W%at is

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MARITIME SYSTEM DESIGN METHODOLOGY

RAWSON

&refera-)e in an o-.ecti+e is an e)e#ent of s*&er)ati+e. 6'est7 or 6#ost7 in+ites a wi!enin" of %ori2on an! a searc%in" tec%ni1*e w%ic% e)a-orate t%e &rocess of !esi"n -etter to ser+e co#&etition. Ine+ita-)y t%e o-.ecti+e of a &ri+ate or nationa) trans&ortation tra!in" syste# %as -een &re!o#inant)y econo#ic/ te#&ere! -y socia) awareness an! -o*n!e! as )ater !isc*sse!. T%at of #i)itary syste#s #*st -e re)ate! to t%eir effecti+eness/ %owe+er t%at #ay -e !efine!. In eit%er case for#*)ation of t%e o-.ecti+e i! stron")y inf)*ence! -y -ot% #ar3et or #i)itary inte))i"ence an! int*ition an! is so +ita) to t%e !esi"n &rocess t%at it nee!s t%e #ost caref*) consi!eration. S%i& !esi"n/ in &artic*)ar/ is a #anifest !e#onstration of tota) co#&any &o)icy 9A;. Wit% an e)e#ent of seren!i&ity in !esi"n/ it is a)so )i3e)y t%at t%e o-.ecti+e wi)) re1*ire re@ !efinition fro# ti#e to ti#e. (reati+ity is t%e *n!isci&)ine! e)e#ent of !esi"n. So#et%in" #*st -e &ro!*ce! fro# t%e inte))i"ent #in! w%ic% %as ne+er -een !one -efore/ a)t%o*"% it #ay -enefit fro# &rece!ent. If it is 3nown to -e i!entica) to so#e &re+io*s so)*tion/ it is not !esi"n. Desi"n is an inno+ati+e synt%esis. On a conce&t*a) &)ane/ it is t%e synt%esis of f*nctions to &ro!*ce a ro)e, on a #ateria) &)ane/ it is t%e synt%esis of #ateria) to &ro!*ce a syste#. In -ot% t%e conce&t*a) an! #ateria) as&ects it is &ossi-)e to constr*ct &ara!i"#s re&resentin" %ierarc%ies of c%aracteristics an! of #ateria) an! in an i!ea) wor)! t%ey #atc% B$i"*re :C. T%e #o+e#ent *& an! !own eac% co)*#n an! fro# one co)*#n across to its co*nter&art re&resents t%e creati+e en!ea+o*r.
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T('NS%#(T'TI#N S+ST$&

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%(#%1)SI#N

S12 01N"TI#N ,e.g. %($SS1(IS$.

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$i"*re : Litt)e is yet 3nown a-o*t creati+ity. 'io@fee!-ac3 is 3nown to sti#*)ate an! #ay -e &ro+i!e! -y a #ac%ine en"ineere! to e0cite t%e &ertinent -rain r%yt%#s or -y ar"*#ente*rs co))ecte! an! e0cite! in -rain stor#in" or ot%er en+iron#enta))y contri+e! sessions. O*r )earne! societies co*)! &rofit fro# t%e attentions of t%e &%ysio)o"ists an! it is in t%e !esi"n fie)! t%at researc% co*)! -e #ost &rofita-)e. T%e t%ir! essentia) e)e#ent of !esi"n is t%e -o*n!ary of en!ea+o*r. A &ainter sees t%e fra#e as a &rinci&a) -o*n!ary -*t wo*)! -e "rie+e! to see %is creation %*n" in a cows%e!. E+en t%is si#&)e -o*n!ary is not t%erefore &recise. $or t%e en"ineerin" !esi"ner t%e -o*n!aries of t%o*"%t #ay e0ten! into t%e econo#ic/ socia)/ e!*cationa)/ &o)itica) an! in!*stria) arenas. (%aracteristics of t%e s%i& in a trans&ortation syste# wi)) -e stron")y affecte! -y t%ese arenas an! a !esi"ner #*st 3now t%e -o*n!s of %is en!ea+o*rs fro# t%e o*tset. S*c% -o*n!s re&resent t%e constraints *&on %i#, wit%in t%e -o*n!aries/ %e %as free!o# to e0&)ore a)) t%e arenas. $ina))y/ !esi"n is iterati+e. T%ere #*st -e fee!-ac3 of t%e so)*tion to t%e o-.ecti+e/ a #eas*re#ent of t%e error an! correction of t%e so)*tion in conse1*ence. T%is is one of t%e !istin"*is%in" feat*res of t%e reasonin" #in! an! is e0&resse! in #any ways 8 "*ess an! test/ scientific #et%o!/ ser+o contro). T%is as&ect of t%e !esi"n !e#onstrates a f*n!a#enta) re)ations%i& -etween science an! en"ineerin". T%e )atter constit*tes an asse#-)y &rocess -y w%ic% an o-.ecti+e #i"%t -e ac%ie+e! an! t%e for#er is t%e &rocess of ana)ysis -y w%ic% t%e

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MARITIME SYSTEM DESIGN METHODOLOGY

RAWSON

creation is teste! a"ainst t%e o-.ecti+e. En"ineerin" !esi"n is a synt%esis interr*&te! -y t%e ana)ysis of en"ineerin" science B$i"*re <C.

$i"*re < Iteration/ w%i)e an essentia) e)e#ent of !esi"n/ !oes #a3e t%e #o!e))in" of t%e !esi"n &rocess itse)f !iffic*)t #ain)y -eca*se of t%e #*)ti@+aria-)e nat*re of #ost si"nificant &ro-)e#s. T%is is &artic*)ar)y tr*e of trans&ortation syste#s w%ere t%ere #ay -e #any %*n!re!s of +aria-)es. 'o*n!aries (reati+e en!ea+o*r cannot -e a))owe! to !e+e)o& in!efinite)y in any !irection if it is to -e &rofita-)e. It #*st -e containe! wit%in areas w%ic% are .*!"e! to -rin" +a)*e or are &er#issi-)e/ feasi-)e sensi-)e or s*sce&ti-)e to #ani&*)ation. 'o*n!aries nee! t%erefore to -e &rescri-e! wit%in w%ic% &ara#eters of t%e &ro-)e# #ay -e #ani&*)ate! to t%e !ecision #a3er7s a!+anta"e. Wit%in t%e -o*n!aries/ t%e effect of t%e &ara#eters *&on t%e o-.ecti+e is #eas*re! in ter#s of +a)*e 8 -enefit or !is-enefit. T%ese are not necessari)y in financia) ter#s -*t #ay -e .*!"#ents/ +a)*e .*!"#ents. At t%e -o*n!aries/ t%e &ara#eters -eco#e constraints. T%ere are/ for t%e !esi"ner of a trans&ortation syste#/ at )east ei"%t #a.or arenas w%ic% re1*ire e0&)oration an! w%ose -o*n!aries nee! to -e !efine!. T%ey are> econo#ic/ &o)itica)/ socia)/ Binc)*!in" &syc%o)o"ica) an! c*)t*ra)C "eo"ra&%ica)/ &%ysica)/ or"anisationa)/ in!*stria) an! te#&ora). T%e econo#ica) area is now we)) !efine! an! for#s one -asis for #ercanti)e syste#s !esi"n. It is now a re)ati+e)y strai"%tforwar! #atter to #ani&*)ate c%aracteristics of t%e trans&ortation syste# wit% econo#ic &ara#eters in or!er to ai# at o&ti#*# so)*tions 9:<;. 'o*n!aries of t%e econo#ic area #ay %a+e a &rofo*n! effect *&on t%e so)*tions. $)a"s of con+enience/ for e0a#&)e/ if a))owe! wit%in t%e -o*n!ary of consi!eration #a3e a #a.or !ifference to s%ort ter#s &rofita-i)ity an! affect t%e c%aracteristics of s%i&s an! #atDrie). T%e Ja&anese a)so %a+e seen t%e wis!o# of inc)*!in" t%e #erc%ant -an3s wit%in t%e econo#ic syste# instea! of -ein" at t%e -o*n!ary. So#e of t%e )ar"er s%i&&in" co#&anies %a+e -een a-)e to inc)*!e #arine ins*rance wit%in t%eir -o*n!aries to t%eir a!+anta"e w%i)e #ost co#&anies %a+e to re"ar! it as a constraint. T%is of co*rse %as a s*-stantia) affect *&on t%e c%aracteristics

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MARITIME SYSTEM DESIGN METHODOLOGY

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of a s%i& -eca*se t%e #ar3e! !isinterest s%own -y #ariti#e ins*rers in i#&ro+in" t%e tec%no)o"y of s%i& safety a-o+e stat*tory #ini#a !oes not enco*ra"e t%e !esi"ner to re!*ce t%e ris3 of )oss. Dis-enefits or )osses e0ten! into ot%er #a.or arenas. Many 'retons #*st %a+e seen t%e A#oco (a!i2 as t%e *")y face of ca&ita)is#. (o#&anies wo*)!/ %owe+er/ nee! to -e +ery far si"%te! to s%a&e t%eir &o)icies to &re+ent or enco*ra"e t%e s&rea! of co##*nis#. Ne+ert%e)ess/ a c)ear !ecision on w%et%er t%e syste# !esi"ner s%o*)! e#-race t%e &o)itica) arena an! to w%at -o*n!/ !oes nee! to -e #a!e in !e+e)o&in" t%e o-.ecti+e. Less 1*estiona-)e is t%e nee! to e#-race t%e socia) scene. Wit%in a s%i&/ t%e socia) en+iron#ent 9A; %as to consi!er a <? %o*r society. Reference 9A; a)so i!entifies t%e socia) effects of !etai)e! s%i& !esi"n as safety/ sec*rity/ socia) interaction/ sy#-o)s of stat*s/ tas3 assistance/ &)eas*re or &ersona) !e+e)o&#ent. 'o*n!aries of t%e socia) arena %owe+er are +ery #*c% wi!er t%an t%is. Enc)os*re of t%e sea#an7s fa#i)y wit%in t%e -o*n!ary of t%e syste# %as #any attractions as t%e Ja&anese %a+e fo*n! in so#e of t%eir )ar"e in!*stria) co#&anies. Desi"n of a trans&ortation syste# wo*)! -e fo))y wit%o*t consi!erin" %ea)t% an! safety/ tra!es *nions an! &*-)ic i#&act of co#&any &o)icy. S*c% i#&act e#-races t%e e#otion "enerate! t%ro*"% stan!ar!s of &*-)ic !ecency/ .o- satisfaction/ socia) .*stice an! nei"%-or)y res&onsi-i)ity. T%is co#&any i#a"e affects t%e +a)*e of t%e syste# -*t is s*-.ect to #ani&*)ation -y &ress*re "ro*&s/ &ress or te)e+ision an! is in conse1*ence an e)*si+e factor. Geo"ra&%ica) an! &%ysica) -o*n!aries are "enera))y #*c% easier to !efine an! nor#a))y constit*te constraints. H*#an stat*re an! %y!ro"ra&%ic !ata are ty&ica). To)era-)e en+iron#ent insi!e an! o*tsi!e t%e s%i& )ea! into #ore !iffic*)t -o*n!ary !efinition s*c% as t%e )e+e) of acce&ta-)e ris3/ often e0&resse! in &ro-a-i)istic ter#s. Or"anisationa) an! in!*stria) &ara#eters s*c% as ca&acity an! tra!in" &references are not a)ways free -*t #ay -e !efine! -y co#&any &o)icy or str*ct*re. 4ro!*ction 1*a)ity is often !iffic*)t to !efine -*t c)ear)y re&resents a constraint for t%e syste# !esi"ner. $ina))y t%e te#&ora) -o*n!aries #*st -e !efine!. T%e ti#e o+er w%ic% t%e syste# !esi"n is to -e assesse! +ita))y affects its c%aracteristics so t%at owners%i& intentions nee! to -e 3nown at t%e o*tset. 4reference for t%e ra&i!ity of ret*rn for in+est#ent an! t%e &re!icte! w%o)e )ife of a syste# are &ertinent. T%e 4rocess of Desi"n Many &eo&)e react e#oti+e)y to any atte#&t at creatin" a !isci&)inary fra#ewor3 for t%e &rocess of !esi"n. 4er%a&s t%is is -eca*se it is a creati+e act a3in to %*#an re&ro!*ction/ a!+ice *&on w%ic% is )i3ewise resente!. T%e tota) !esi"n &rocess is -est !escri-e! -y ana)o"y. T%e ana)o"ies 8 or #o!e)s 8 e#&)oye! are &ara!i"#s/ i#&)osions/ s&ira)s/ #atrices/ f)ow !ia"ra#s an! #any ot%er !e+ices. T%ey re&resent f)ows of infor#ation/ !ecisions/ %ierarc%ies/ c%rono)o"ica) e+ents/ iteration/ &roce!*res an! con+enience. T%is is necessary -eca*se we are *na-)e easi)y to concei+e t%e &rocess in its entirety. E+en in t%e se+ere)y )i#ite! act of !esi"nin" a s%i& to #ateria) s&ecification/ t%e -o*n!aries of t%e &ro-)e# are e0tensi+e eno*"% to a!#it consi!era-)e s*-!i+ision as t%e we)) 3nown s&ira) of acti+ity so effecti+e)y !e#onstrates. Moreo+er/ t%e interaction a#on" t%e s*-!i+isions s*""ests t%at t%ey are not t%ose w%ic% "i+e t%e -est e)e#ents. T%e "enera) &rocess of !esi"n 3nown as syste#s en"ineerin" is !escri-e! -y K)ine an! Lifson 9E; in t%e for# of a #atri0 wit% t%e co)*#ns %a+in" a ti#e -ase an! t%e rows %a+in" an! acti+ity -ase. As t%ey &oint o*t/ #any !ifferent a!+ocates of syste#s en"ineerin" %a+e !e+e)o&e! si#i)ar s*-!i+ision an! one s*c% #atri0 is s%own in $i"*re =. A)t%o*"% so#e #ay o-.ect to t%e ter#ino)o"y/ t%ere is )itt)e ar"*#ent a-o*t t%e e)e#ents. Jones 9F; &ro+i!es a rat%er !ifferent !escri&tion of t%e !esi"n &rocess. He sees t%e ear)y &art of t%e ti#e -ase in ter#s of t%ree &%ases/ !i+er"ence/ transfor#ation an! con+er"ence. T%e !i+er"ence &%ase re&resents t%e e0&ansi+e t%o*"%t in+o)+e! in consi!erin" o*t to t%e

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MARITIME SYSTEM DESIGN METHODOLOGY

RAWSON

-o*n!aries of t%e &ro-)e# t%e !i+erse ways in w%ic% t%e o-.ecti+e #i"%t/ wit%o*t *n!*e constraints -e #et. T%is &%ase is concerne! &ri#ari)y wit% i!eas/ wit% conce&ts an! f*nction. It is t%e &%ase of #a0i#*# creati+ity. Jones7 secon! &%ase transfor#s t%ese conce&ts into #ateria) &ro&osa)s. It synt%esi2es e)e#ents into a syste#. It #o!e)s t%e syste# so t%at it #ay -e for#e! an! refor#e!. In t%e t%ir! &%ase %is #o!e) con+er"es to t%e -est so)*tion. To !eci!e w%at is/ in!ee!/ -est/ t%e #o!e) #*st -e teste! a"ainst criteria an! constraint. A co#&)ete an! "enera) #o!e) of t%e &rocess of !esi"n is s%own in $i"*re ?. T%is co#-ines K)ine an! Lifson7s e)e#ents of t%e &rocess wit% Jones7 !e&t% an! -rea!t% of st*!y in eac% &%ase. 'y !escri-in" %is tas3 in t%is way/ t%e #ana"er of t%e w%o)e &rocess is a-)e to !is&ose %is reso*rces accor!in")y. He wo*)!/ &er%a&s/ &)ace %is %i"%)y i#a"inati+e/ *n!isci&)ine! #en in t%e ear)y &%ases/ %is wi!e)y e0&erience! #en of !i+erse !isci&)ines in t%e transfor#ation &%ase an! t%e acc*rate t%eoretician in t%e !i+er"ence &%ase. He wo*)! -e in a -etter &osition to sc%e!*)e acti+ities/ to or"anise in a #anner w%ic% faci)itates t%e f)ows/ to #a3e !ecision in a ti#e)y #anner/ to a+oi! intro!*cin" constraints -efore %e #*st/ to arran"e co##*nication too)s/ faci)ities/ stan!ar!s/ criteria. Dis&)ay of t%e f*)) &ano&)y of acti+ity is t%*s an i#&ortant way of sti#*)atin" intros&ection an! infor#e! #ana"e#ent.

$i"*re = W%at #*st now -e e0a#ine! are t%e too)s an! #o!e)s an! +a)*e criteria t%at #i"%t -e *sef*) in a&&)yin" t%is &rocess. Mo!e))in" T%ree ty&es of #o!e) are s*""este! -y Marc% 9G;/ !escri&ti+e #o!e)s/ &re!icti+e #o!e)s an! e+a)*ati+e #o!e)s. W%i)e no s*-@!i+ision of #o!e) ty&e is +ery satisfactory/ t%is one see#s to !eny t%e +ery &*r&ose of a #o!e). Any #o!e) re&resentation of rea) )ife nee!s to !escri-e an! to &re!ict so t%at it #ay -e e+a)*ate! wit% a +iew to c%an"in" it for -etter. T%ere wo*)!

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MARITIME SYSTEM DESIGN METHODOLOGY

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ot%erwise -e no &oint in #o!e))in" e0ce&t as a %istory. BE+en t%en/ at wit% re"ression ana)ysis/ t%e &*r&ose is often to &re!ict ot%er/ si#i)ar syste#s.C A -etter !i+ision 8 -*t -y no #eans e0c)*si+e 8 is -etween &%ysica) #o!e)s an! -e%a+io*ra) #o!e)s. T%e &%ysica) #o!e)s #ay for con+enience -e s*-!i+i!e! into static an! !yna#ic. A ta-)e of so#e of t%e co##on #o!e)s in t%ese cate"ories is "i+en in $i"*re A. It is necessary to !istin"*is% fo*r feat*res of a #o!e). T%ese are its &*r&ose/ its )i#itations/ t%e too)s e#&)oye! to !escri-e it an! t%e criteria -y w%ic% it #ay -e .*!"e! so t%at t%e effect of a c%an"e in a +aria-)e #ay -e &re!icte!. T%e &*r&ose of any #o!e) is to re&resent so#et%in" B)i3e t%e e0a#&)es in $i"*re AC wit% a +iew to e0a#inin" it critica))y.

$i"*re ? Let *s ta3e a +ery si#&)e case/ )i3e t%e )ayo*t of t%e f*rnit*re in t%e sittin" roo#. T%e &*r&ose of t%e #o!e) is to arran"e f*rnit*re for #a0i#*# fa#i)y co#fort an! con+enience. Its )i#itations are t%at it can re&resent on)y &%ysica) &ro&osa)s/ not e#otion nor &otentia) !is-enefits )i3e i))ness/ nor +aria-i)ity of t%e e)e#ents. T%e too)s e#&)oye! for its re&resentation an! #ani&*)ation are a sca)e !rawin" of t%e roo# wit% its fi0t*res/ o*t)ine c*to*ts of t%e f*rnit*re an! nati+e wit. 5a)*e criteria are )e"ion an! !ifferent fro# eac% #e#-er of t%e fa#i)y 8 to &ossess t%e co#forta-)e c%airs/ to +iew t%e "ar!en/ to see t%e te)e+ision/ to -e *n!er a rea!in" )a#&/ to -e o*t t%e !ra*"%t/ to -e near t%e fire/ to see a neat arran"e#ent/ to a))ow free!o# of acti+ity/ to c)ean rea!i)y etc. As any fa#i)y 3nows t%e &ro-)e# is inso)*-)e. On)y t%e sin")e +a)*e! criteria of fat%er can force a so)*tion.

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MARITIME SYSTEM DESIGN METHODOLOGY

RAWSON

T%is e0a#&)e is sa)*tary. If so si#&)e a &ro-)e# is #anifest)y !iffic*)t to so)+e to e+eryone7s satisfaction/ w%at %o&e is t%ere to #o!e) t%e %*"e trans&ortation syste#s w%ose -o*n!aries e#-race t%e wi)!)y !ifferent arenas !escri-e! ear)ier in t%is &a&erH How/ for e0a#&)e/ can t%e socia) an! econo#ic syste#s -e tra!e! offH We #*st a!!ress t%is 1*estion &resent)y. $or t%e #o#ent/ it is as we)) to -e re#in!e! t%at/ w%ere a sin")e +a)*e! criterion 8 )i3e #a0i#*# stress 8 can -e a!o&te!/ it s%o*)! -e we)co#e!. Let *s now s*r+ey so#e of t%e ot%er too)s w%ic% #ay -e a!o&te! to constr*ct #o!e)s.

$i"*re A Statica) &%ysica) #o!e)s %a+e for )on" -een #a!e -y !rawin"s/ #ens*ration/ for#*)as/ -y -*!"ets for s&ace an! wei"%t/ -y t%e &rinte! wor! of #ateria) s&ecification/ -y #oc3 *&s an! -y &rototy&es. T%ey are in+a)*a-)e an! so we)) 3nown as en"ineerin" artifacts t%at t%ere is rare)y #*c% !e-ate a-o*t w%ic% is t%e #ost s*ita-)e. S%a&e/ %owe+er/ can -e re&resente! in #any ot%er ways. 'oo)ean a)"e-ra can re&resent a wi!e +ariety of s%a&es an! t%ey #ay -e enco!e! in -inary for#. Lan! arc%itects 9G; #ay a!o&t a %e0a!eci#a) co!e an! a transfor#ation &rocess for e0a#inin" interactions an! se&aratin" #etric an! to&o)o"ica) &ro&erties of for#. T%is is t%e for# of #o!e))in" w%ic% na+a) arc%itects %a+e ne")ecte!. Dyna#ic &%ysica) #o!e)s %a+e tra!itiona))y -een t%e &ro+ince of o&erationa) researc% an! are a +ita) &art of creation an! trans&ortation syste#s in t%eir -roa!est sense. 'ot% tra!e an! #i)itary effecti+eness are f)ows w%ic% #*st -e re&resente! -y #o!e))in". Den!o"ra#s/ association networ3s/ tri& fre1*ency #atrices/ )inear an! !yna#ic &ro"ra##in" an! 5enn !ia"ra#s are a)) *sef*) in s*c% #o!e))in". (as% f)ow #o!e))in" w%ic% %as c%an"e! so #*c% of t%e na+a) arc%itect7s t%in3in"/ is a necessary &art of a)#ost e+ery syste# an! is s*ita-)y re"ar!e! as a !yna#ic &%ysica) #o!e). So is t%e f)ow of &ro!*ction an! its contro) -y networ3s or t%e +ario*s !e+ices c)asse! *n!er #ana"e#ent science. So a)so is t%e science of er"ono#ics w%ic% re&resents t%e f)ows -etween #an an! #ac%ine. Genera)ise! networ3 for#*)ation an! ana)ysis 9I; is in!ee! wort%y of s&ecia) #ention for t%ose en"a"e! *&on trans&ortation syste#s/ arc%itect*re in its -roa!est sense. In )oo3in" at inno+ation/ tra!itiona) #o!e))in" can too easi)y -e for"otten. $)*i! f)ow %as -een #o!e))e! satisfactori)y for a )on" ti#e -y &otentia) f)ow t%eory an! t%e state of stress in #ateria)/ say/ -y stress f*nctions an! tensor ca)c*)*s. In!ee!/ #*c% of #at%e#atics is a #o!e))in" &rocess an! a "reat !ea) of it is a&&)ica-)e to trans&ortation syste#s. Mo!ern a&&roac%es to #at%e#atics teac%in" !irects t%e c%i)!7s attention in t%is #anner/ !istin"*is%in" t%e re&resentation of rea) )ife -y #at%e#atica) sy#-o)is# fro# t%e #ani&*)ation of t%e sy#-o)s -y )o"ica) r*)es.

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'e%a+io*ra) #o!e)s a!!ress +a)*es. $re1*ent)y +a)*es are s*-.ecti+e in+o)+in" t%e senses/ e#-racin" e#otion/ .*!"#ent/ ris3. 4recise re&resentation i##e!iate)y -eco#es !iffic*)t. How/ for e0a#&)e/ s%o*)! safety -e #o!e))e!H W%i)e t%e &%ysica) #o!e)s assist in statin" t%e &ro-)e# e+en to t%e e0tent of statin" #eas*ra-)e 1*antities/ t%e +a)*e criteria w%ic% #*st state t%e 1*antities t%at are safe or t%at are *nsafe are i#&recise -eca*se safety %as no a-so)*te +a)*e. Not%in" is tota))y safe or w%o))y acce&ta-)e socia))y or f*))y effecti+e. $or t%is reason/ -e%a+io*ra) #o!e)s are treate! in t%e ne0t section w%ic% !ea)s wit% ine0actit*!e. Dea)in" wit% Ine0actit*!e Desi"n is concerne! wit% t%e f*t*re w%ic% is *ncertain. T%e o*tco#e of a !esi"n &rocess 8 t%e +a)*e of t%e !esi"n 8 #i"%t t%erefore -e e0&ecte! to -e a .*!"#ent. T%is .*!"#ent #ay -e se&arate! o*t fro# t%e #ateria))y !efina-)e &arts of t%e !esi"n in a +ariety of ways. A -ri!"e !esi"n/ for e0a#&)e/ w%i)e !efina-)e in ter#s of )oa!s/ str*ct*re/ s%a&e an! ser+ice is )ace! wit% t%e *ncertainties re)ate! to safety/ econo#ic ret*rn an! *sef*)ness to t%e co##*nity a)) of w%ic% are &re!ictions. T%ere are on)y two ways in w%ic% s*c% &re!ictions can -e #a!e 8 -y int*ition or -y statistics. Int*ition sa#&)es %istory -y &ersona) e0&erience an! e0ten!s it into t%e f*t*re t%ro*"% i#a"ination. In t%is way &eo&)e #ay antici&ate f*t*re c%an"es in t%e )aw/ new socia) &ress*res/ !e+e)o&in" #i)itary &ost*re/ &o)itica) #anoe*+re/ new #ar3et o&&ort*nities an! #any ot%er feat*res t%at wi)) affect t%e +a)*e of t%eir !esi"n enter&rise. Int*ition can acco*nt for inco##ens*ra-)e factors s*c% as conscience/ e#otion/ .o- satisfaction/ )o--yin"/ fear. Statistics #eas*res %istory in so#e for# an! e0tra&o)ates into t%e f*t*re. 'ayesian !ecision t%eory intro!*ces t%e i!ea of &ro-a-i)ity &B C as a #eas*re of *ncertain occ*rrence of an e+ent 9:J/::; -ase! *&on %istory/ A/ an! so#e a!!itiona) e+i!ence/ '> p(/A and B

p(/A p(A/ and B

!"uation #

Howe+er/ t%is is t%e )i3e)i%oo! of an occ*rrence an! !oes not re&resent t%e +a)*e or conse1*ence of its o*tco#e. T%e +a)*e of t%e *ncertain e+ent to t%e &erson en1*irin" is t%e *ti)ity/ / an! 'ayesian !ecision t%eory is #*c% concerne! wit% se)ectin" co*rses of action w%ic% #a0i#i2e t%e e0&ecte! *ti)ity/

u Bd i C = u B$ ij C p B j C
j =:

!"uation %

( -ein" t%e conse1*ence of an e+ent . It is i#&ortant to !istin"*is% t%e &ro-a-i)ity of occ*rrence w%ic% is si#&)y a for# of e0tra&o)ation of %istory into t%e f*t*re an! t%e +a)*e of t%e conse1*ence to t%e in!i+i!*a) w%ic% is a s*-.ecti+e #atter. Different &eo&)e wi)) assi"n !ifferent n*#erica) +a)*es to t%e *ti)ity of t%e conse1*ence to t%e# an! #*c% of *ti)ity t%eory is concerne! wit% ren!erin" t%eir &ersona) fee)in"s into n*#-ers. T%is ren!ers t%e int*ition into statistics an! ine0actit*!e t%ereafter !isa&&ears. T%e act of !oin" t%is or e+en atte#&tin" it *ns*ccessf*))y is itse)f +a)*a-)e in t%at it #ay se&arate t%e tr*e fee)in" fro# t%e &re.*!ice or t%e irrationa). S*c% %ea)t%y intros&ection is a!o&te! -y few &eo&)e wit%o*t t%e force of a !isci&)ine to en"en!er it. T%e #i)itary e1*i+a)ent to *ti)ity is #i)itary wort%. T%is is a #eas*re of t%e correctness of !efence a"ainst an attac3 Bor +ice@+ersaC. Syste# effecti+eness of a #i)itary syste# #ay -e e0&resse! as> L L . L . L S.E. K $ . D !"uation ' A & L $ is t%e ca&a-i)ity in ter#s of/ say/ s&ee!/ &ay)oa!/ #iss !istance/ ran"e/ ca#o*f)a"e/ rate of L is t%e !e&en!a-i)ity/ i.e. t%e a-i)ity to a!o&t a ca&a-i)ity w%en ca))e! *&on. !etection/ etc. D L is t%e a+ai)a-i)ity to s*stain ca&a-i)ity for s&ecifie! ti#es an! is a f*nction of re)ia-i)ity A L an! #aintaina-i)ity. & is t%e #i)itary wort%. Eac% one of t%ese is a #atri0 wit% rows

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MARITIME SYSTEM DESIGN METHODOLOGY

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re&resentin" states of t%e syste# an! co)*#ns t%e !ifferent #issions or scenarios. S*c% a -asic #o!e) can -e !e+e)o&e! into "reat co#&)e0ity. Most s*-.ecti+e fi"*res are concentrate! in t%e )ast #atri0/ #i)itary wort%/ re&resentin" t%e +a)*e of t%is syste# to a co##an!er. In si#&)e cases t%is can act*a))y -e 1*antifie! *sin" "a#in" t%eory in w%ic% t%e *ti)ity of a co*rse of action -y (o##an!er Y *sin" one set of tactics a"ainst (o##an!er M can -e e0&resse! in s*c% n*#erate ter#s as t%e &ercenta"e of tan3s !estroye! or t%e econo#ic !is-enefit to t%e ene#y. A&art fro# t%e *ti)ity of #oney to an in!i+i!*a)/ ine0actit*!e occ*rs co+ert)y in t%ose !isco*nte! cas% f)ow e0ercises w%ic% %a+e -eco#e fa#i)iar to na+a) arc%itects 9:<;. It is wra&&e! *& in t%e c%oice of a !isco*nt &reference rate *se! for co#&arin" o&tions w%ere o&&ort*nity rate is not )i3e an!/ of co*rse/ w%ere t%e w%o)e syste# can -e a!!resse! in ter#s of cas% f)ow. Ri"%t)y is t%e &reference rate often c%osen -y t%e 'oar! of t%e co#&any after #*c% Bs*-.ecti+eC !isc*ssion -eca*se it re&resents t%e co#&any7s +iew of its f*t*re. Wise o-ser+ers wi)) a)so re"ar! t%is cas% f)ow e0ercise as on)y a &art of t%e !ecision@#a3in" scene. Ine0actit*!e #ay arise in cost -enefit ana)ysis -y %a+in" to force a)) e)e#ents of t%e &ro-)e# into financia) ter#s so t%at t%ey can -e tra!e! off. T%e re)ati+e)y si#&)e case of &)acin" financia) +a)*e on a sea#an7s )ife 9:=; raises "reat e#otion w%i)e t%e financia) !is-enefit &)ace! *&on t%e r*ination of an o)! c%*rc% -y Lon!on7s t%ir! air&ort !i! #*c% to cast !o*-t on t%e +a)*e of cost -enefit ana)ysis itse)f. Jo- satisfaction/ en+iron#ent/ fa#i)y !isr*&tion/ t%e #ora)e of t%e *ne#&)oye!/ restricti+e &ractice/ o&&ressi+e #ana"e#ent/ tr*st 8 %ow can t%ese contri-*tors to *ti)ity -e ren!ere! into cas% f)owH T%ey can/ of co*rse/ -e inc)*!e! wit%in t%e -o*n!aries of t%ose consi!erations w%ic% .*!"e *ti)ity eit%er in n*#erate ter#s or in int*iti+e !ecision #a3in". T%e +a)*e of cost -enefit ana)ysis )ies in its 1*antification of e)e#ents w%ic% can -e a"reea-)y 1*antifie! an! arran"e! -esi!e t%e o-.ecti+e e)e#ents of t%e o+era)) syste# as an ai! in !ecision #a3in". T%ere is one ot%er way of ren!erin" n*#erate t%e ine0actit*!e of +a)*e .*!"#ent w%ic% %as recei+e! rat%er )ess attention. T%is is -y t%e *se of f*22y sets 9:?;. In con+entiona) set t%eory s*-sets A of a set E K N0O #ay -e e0&resse! in ter#s of #e#-ers%i& f*nction s*c% t%at> AB0C K : if 0 A !"uation ( AB0C K J if 0 A Any e)e#ent #ay -e e0&resse! as an or!ere! &air B / 0C w%ic% can t%en -e s*-.ect to t%e #ani&*)ation of -inary 'oo)ean )o"ic. Wit% f*22y sets %owe+er/ #ay #a3e any +a)*e -etween J an! : re&resentin" t%e !e"ree to w%ic% 0 is .*!"e! to -e)on" to A. Set connecti+es/ f*22y )o"ic/ inference an! !efinitiona) a)"orit%#s #ay -e !e+e)o&e! si#i)ar to con+entiona) t%eory. T%is -rief s*r+ey %as i!entifie! si0 ways in w%ic% ine0actit*!e #ay -e ren!ere! n*#erate so t%at it #ay -e #ani&*)ate! wit% a +iew to assistin" !ecision #a3in". T%ey are> 4ro-a-i)ity of occ*rrence ti)ity of conse1*ence Mi)itary wort% assess#ent 4reference !isco*nt rate $inancia) +a)*e e1*i+a)ence $*22y set t%eory T%e 1*estion t%at #*st now -e face! is w%et%er s*c% for#*)ations are &refera-)e to int*ition. T%e 5a)*e of a Desi"n Met%o!o)o"y T%is fina) section/ if it is not to -e fa)se to t%e !esi"n &rocess #*st &ro+i!e t%e fee!-ac3 to t%e o-.ecti+e of t%e &a&er an! critica))y assess t%e +a)*e of a !esi"n #et%o!o)o"y an! its

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associate! !isci&)ines. It is not easy to a!!ress t%is s*-.ect in "enera)ities -eca*se !esi"n/ )i3e )i+in"/ is a #atter of so#e -rea!t%. (ynics wo*)! &oint o*t t%at t%e on)y #a.or a!+ance in #ariti#e trans&ortation syste#s t%is cent*ry %as -een t%e intro!*ction of container traffic an! t%at it was ac%ie+e! wit%o*t t%e -enefit of syste#s en"ineerin" #et%o!o)o"y. T%ey wo*)! a!! t%at ot%er inno+ation in s%i& !esi"n %as -een tec%no)o"y )e!/ econo#ic .*stification fo))owin". T%e 1*estion w%ic% #*st -e face! is w%et%er t%ese int*iti+e sta-s/ w%i)e often -ri))iant)y in+enti+e/ are a!e1*ate an! e0%a*sti+e. One answer #*st )ie wit% t%e econo#ics of researc% an! !e+e)o&#ent. T%e !ays w%en a syste# !esi"ner co*)! se)ect fro# a wi!e ran"e of a+ai)a-)e co#&onents %a+e "one. S&ec*)ati+e en"ineerin" !e+e)o&#ent %as -eco#e rarer -eca*se t%e s3i))s nee!e! for it are rarer an! #ore e0&ensi+e. I!entification of s*ita-)e co#&onents for !e+e)o&#ent nee! to -e #a!e #ore !e)i-erate)y an! in t%e conte0t of o+era)) syste#s arc%itect*re. $*rt%er#ore/ t%e wor)! is -eco#in" )ess !o#inate! -y t%at -)atant ca&ita)is# w%ic% i"nore! socia) an! en+iron#enta) factors. T%e ()*- of Ro#e %as ne+er/ !es&ite its wi)! inacc*racies/ -een w%o))y !is#isse!, #ore an! #ore is t%e a!%erence to econo#ic "rowt% as a sin")e o-.ecti+e -ein" 1*estione!. E+en w%ere econo#ics &ro+i!es t%e &ri#e +aria-)es/ t%e effect of e0terna)ities %a+e -eco#e #ore &ressin". T%e o&en@#in!e! society of #any co*ntries is now a-)e t%ro*"% &*-)ic !e-ate to re&resent factors w%ic% *se! to -e co#forta-)y o-sc*re -*t w%ic% now -roa!en consi!erations to s*c% a !e"ree t%at !ecision #a3in" is &*s%e! *&war!s/ *s*a))y to "o+ern#ent )e+e). B4reser+ation of t%e en+iron#ent is ty&ica).C T%*s t%ere is )ess c%oice for t%e syste# !esi"ner in t%e se)ection of en"ineerin" an! arc%itect*ra) co#&onents, t%e si#&)e &rofit #oti+e is no )on"er tena-)e, t%e owner #asters w%o en.oye! a*tocratic contro) of t%eir #ariti#e trans&ortation syste# %a+e "one, re"*)ation/ constraint/ in%i-ition/ e0terna) contro)/ )o--y/ sanctions/ %a+e -eco#e &re!o#inant, c*sto#ers can -e #ore circ*#s&ect in a #ore wi!e)y co#&etiti+e wor)!. T%ese see# to -e co#&e))in" reasons for )oo3in" -roa!)y at trans&ortation 1*estions. 'o*n!aries for consi!eration nee! to -e wi!e an! nee! to -e c%osen an! a!!resse! wit% !e)i-eration an! !isci&)ine. Strict a!%erence to econo#ics/ sa+e for t%e #ost e)e#entary syste#s/ is not )i3e)y in t%e f*t*re to -e &rofita-)e. In!ee!/ fai)*re of #any +ent*res in t%e &ast %as -een tracea-)e to t%e !is#issa) of socia) factors !*rin" !esi"n or/ if t%ey were consi!ere! to t%e fact t%at no re!*n!ancy %a! -een &)ace! in t%e syste# to -y&ass any !estr*cti+e effects/ in!*stria)/ &o)itica)/ socia) or econo#ic. W%at is )ess o-+io*s is %ow #*c% of t%e syste# #*st -e or can -e 1*antifie! to assist !ecision #a3in". It is certain t%at t%e syste# #*st -e #o!e))e! so t%at it #ay -e co#&re%en!e! an! #ani&*)ate! to a!+anta"e. So#e of t%e #o!e)s are nat*ra))y n*#erate an! &resent no &ro-)e#s. T%ose &arts i!entifie! in t%e &re+io*s section are nat*ra))y inn*#erate. J*st w%y s%o*)! t%ey -e force! into fi"*resH It is 1*ite c)ear t%at if 1*antification !oes not %e)& !ecision #a3in"/ it is &oint)ess an! -eca*se !ecision #a3in" is a &ersona) #atter/ so#e &eo&)e wi)) fin! it a %e)& w%ere ot%er fin! it a %in!rance. Decision #a3in"/ %owe+er/ is not often a sin"*)ar)y &ersona) #atter. It is *s*a))y a 1*estion of &ers*a!in" ot%ers t%ro*"% a s*ita-)e #e!i*# of co##*nication. So#e/ w%ose e!*cation %as -een confine! to t%e c)assics fin! wor!s a!e1*ate, ot%ers are -etter &ers*a!e! -y n*#-ers an! )o"ic. Acce&tin" t%at n*#eracy wi)) -e *sef*) to so#e &eo&)e we #*st e0a#ine w%et%er eac% for# of n*#eratin" t%e ine0actit*!e is con+incin" an! t%erefore satisfactory as a #e!i*# of co##*nication. 4ro-a-i)ity of occ*rrence is t%e easiest to acce&t -eca*se &eo&)e e0&ect %istory to -e re&eate!. It is #ost con+incin" as a co#&arator. W%ere it can &)ace o*tco#es in an or!er of )i3e)i%oo! an! t%e statistics *&on w%ic% it is -ase! are cre!i-)e/ it is a rea!i)y acce&ta-)e #eas*re. E0&erience %as s%own t%at !ecision #a3ers fin! it #ore !iffic*)t to acce&t t%e 1*antification of t%e +a)*e of t%e o*tco#e/ @ i.e. t%e *ti)ity or t%e #i)itary wort% 8 *n)ess t%ey %a+e &erfor#e! it t%e#se)+es. As a #eans of co##*nication/ it is t%erefore c*rrent)y so#ew%at s*s&ect. W%ere t%e c%an"es of o*tco#e a"ainst &reference are "ra!*a) an! contin*o*s/ t%ere is so#e

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acce&tance of t%is #eas*re. T%ere are %owe+er two factors w%ic% &rofo*n!)y affect its acce&ta-i)ity. $irst)y/ t%ere is not a)ways con+incin" an! co#&)ete %istorica) !ata *&on w%ic% t%e )i3e)i%oo! of e+ents #ay -e &re!icte!. Secon!)y/ &reference is so#eti#es +io)ent)y affecte! -y a sin")e an! a&&arent)y insi"nificant c%an"e in t%e scenario. If/ for e0a#&)e/ a#a)"a#ation of two tra!es *nions &ro+i!es t%e# wit% a #ono&o)y for !isr*&tion of a +ent*re/ t%e &reference an! conse1*ent !ecision #ay c%an"e #ar3e!)y. If s*c% a &ossi-i)ity %a! -een &ro&er)y e0&ose! !*rin" t%e &rece!in" &%ases of !esi"n/ an int*iti+e !ecision co*)! %a+e -een &refera-)e. 4er%a&s catastro&%e t%eory co*)! assist %ere 9I;. T%ere is certain)y roo# for researc%. P*antification of *ti)ity an! t%e *se of tra!itiona) !ecision t%eory is t%en acce&ta-)e w%en %istory is a re)ia-)e -ase for &re!iction an! w%en t%e scenario is not s*-.ect to s*!!en +icissit*!es. Mi)itary wort% is )ess s*sce&ti-)e to s*c% treat#ent an! 1*antification of syste# effecti+eness %as not -een fo*n! wi!e)y acce&ta-)e. Ne+ert%e)ess/ it is often *sef*) to &)ace at )east t%ose &arts w%ic% are n*#erate/ s*c% as ca&a-i)ity/ !e&en!a-i)ity an! a+ai)a-i)ity a)on"si!e a +er-a) !escri&tion of #i)itary wort% an! )ife cyc)e cost 9:A; to assist .*!"#ent in int*iti+e !ecision #a3in". Decision #a3ers can t%e wei"% t%e n*#erate an! t%e inn*#erate to"et%er wit%o*t *n!*e !eference to eit%er, t%ey can/ f*rt%er/ i!entify e)e#ents of t%e syste# w%ic% are +ery inf)*entia) or e0&ensi+e or o*t of conte0t. (ost -enefit ana)ysis can a)so -e rewar!in" if it !oes not o-sc*re any s*-.ecti+ity in t%e c%oice of !isco*nt rate. 5a)*e .*!"#ents e0&resse! in ter#s of #oney !o nee! to -e reser+e! for t%ose factors w%ic% can con+incin")y -e so re&resente! an! co##*nicate! to ot%ers. En+iron#ent an! e#otion are not a#on" t%e#. T%e increase in t%e irres&onsi-)e *se of cost -enefit ana)ysis %as acco#&anie! t%e "reat e0&ansion in t%e n*#-er of &eo&)e w%o #ani&*)ate #oney an! t%e !i#in*tion of t%ose w%o create wea)t%. $*22y sets !o not o-+io*s)y esta-)is% t%e confi!ence wit% w%ic% a so)*tion #ay -e .*!"e!. Intersection of #e#-ers%i& sets is ac%ie+e! -y t%e se)ection of e0tre#e +a)*es an! can re&resent on)y t%e safest co*rse/ o-sc*rin" t%e *ti)ity of an o*tco#e. Ne+ert%e)ess/ t%is tec%ni1*e s%o*)! not -e !iscar!e! wit%o*t t%o*"%t. At &resent/ it is an esoteric for# of co##*nication -*t "reater fa#i)iarity #ay #a3e it #ore "enera))y acce&ta-)e in ti#e. W%at t%en %as t%is s*r+ey of !esi"n #et%o!o)o"y re+ea)e! w%ic% is of -enefit to !esi"ners of trans&ortation syste#sH $irst/ it %as s%own t%at a !isci&)ine! a&&roac% to !esi"n is *sef*) an! can -e *se! wit%o*t !a#a"in" inno+ati+e t%o*"%t. T%e !isci&)ine is si#&)e> !efine t%e o-.ecti+e/ esta-)is% arenas an! -o*n!aries/ in+ent so)*tions/ #o!e) t%e so)*tions an! c%ec3 t%eir re&resentation/ test t%e so)*tions a"ainst +a)*e criteria/ inc)*!in" t%e sensiti+ity of eac% +aria-)e/ an! se)ect t%at -est s*ite! to t%is o-.ecti+e. T%e too)s a+ai)a-)e to assist t%is &rocess are !i+erse in!ee! an! nee! to -e se)ecte! wit% care to ens*re t%at t%ey are t%e #ost s*ita-)e. T%e #et%o!o)o"y set o*t in t%is &a&er is a&&)ica-)e to any set of reso*rces or"anise! to ac%ie+e a state! f*nction. It is )i3e)y %owe+er/ t%at t%e )ar"er t%e syste#/ t%e #ore nee! t%ere is for a !isci&)ine -eca*se t%e syste#7s arc%itect is )ess a-)e to re)y on si#&)e ratiocination. He #*st a)so fin! t%e nee! at t%e +ery )east to !is&)ay eac% of t%e ste&s en*#erate! a-o+e/ e+en t%o*"% %e #ay not fee) o-)i"e! to 1*antify tota))y. Trans&ortation syste#s of w%ic% t%e s%i& is -*t a s#a)) &art are ine+ita-)y )ar"e an! #*st &rofit fro# an a&&)ication of a #et%o!o)o"y. In t%is res&ect/ t%e #ariti#e syste# !esi"ner is in a *ni1*e &osition an! o*"%t to -e seen to -e )ea!in" t%o*"%t in !esi"n. $ew ot%er !esi"ners 8 sa+e town &)anners an! "o+ern#ent &)anners 8 %a+e t%e o&&ort*nity to e#-race so #any of t%e arenas w%ose -o*n!aries were !isc*sse! ear)ier in t%e &a&er. He %as to create a safe en"ineere! +e%ic)e wit% a <? %o*r society &)yin" internationa))y for &rofit or #i)itary a!+anta"e wit%in -o*n!s of -e%a+io*r acce&ta-)e &o)itica))y/ socia))y an! in!*stria))y. He nee!s to i!entify constraints an! !e-i)itatin" ris3 an!

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to en"ineer free!o# in t%e syste# so t%at it wi)) ac%ie+e its o-.ecti+e re)ia-)y. T%is is a c%a))en"e an! an art 9:E;.

References :. <. =. ?. A. E. F. G. I. :J. ::. :<. :=. :?. :A. :E. $rosc%/ R. A./ QT%e E#er"in" S%a&e of 4o)icies for t%e Ac1*isition of Ma.or Syste#s/ Marine Tec%no)o"yR/ J*)y :IEI. Man!e)/ 4. an! (%ryssosto#i!is/ (./ QA Desi"n Met%o!o)o"y for S%i&s an! ot%er (o#&)e0 Syste#sR/ 4%i). Trans. A<F=/ :IF<. Si#on/ H. A./ QT%e Science of t%e Artificia)R/ M.I.T./ :IEI. $ie)!en/ G. '. R./ QEn"ineerin" Desi"nR/ H.M.S.O./ :IE=. Sea)ife 4ro"ra##e Re&ort No. :/ Sea)ife 4ro.ect Office/ Marc% :IFG. K)ine/ M. '. an! Lifson. M. W./ QSyste#s En"ineerin" an! its A&&)ication to t%e Desi"n of an En"ineerin" (*rric*)*#R/ Mana"e#ent Science/ :IEG. Jones/ J. (./ QDesi"n Met%o!sR/ Wi)ey Interscience/ :IFJ. Marc%/ L./ QT%e Arc%itect*re of $or#R/ (. . 4./ :IFE. 'ranin/ $. H. an! H*seyin/ K./ Q4ro-)e# Ana)ysis in Science an! En"ineerin"R/ Aca!e#ic 4ress/ :IFF. Lin!)ey/ D./ QMa3in" DecisionsR/ Wi)ey/ :IF:. De+anney/ J. W./ QMarine Decisions *n!er ncertaintyR/ M.I.T./ :IF:. 'enfor!/ H./ QMeas*re of Merit for S%i& Desi"nR/ Trans. S.N.A.M.E. BGreat La3es SectionC/ :IEI. Gar!ner/ '. M. an! Goss/ R. O./ QLife-oats +ers*s Life-e)ts 8 A (o#&arison of (osts an! 'enefitsR/ Trans. R.I.N.A./ :IF=. Ma!e%/ L. A./ QO*t)ine of a New A&&roac% to t%e Ana)ysis of (o#&)e0 Syste#s an! Decision 4rocessesR/ I.E.E.E. Transactions on Syste#s/ Man an! (y-ernetics/ :IF=. Rawson/ K. J./ QTowar!s Econo#ic Wars%i& Ac1*isition an! Owners%i&R/ Trans. R.I.N.A./ :IF=. Rawson/ K. J./ QT%e Art of S%i& Desi"nR/ E*ro&ort/ :IFE.

NOTE> T%e +iews e#-o!ie! in t%is &a&er are t%e a*t%or7s own an! re&resent no officia) +iew&oint.

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