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  • Credit Contraction

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    CreditTrader
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    Total credit market contraction continues but the contraction has slowed (so there is something for the 2nd derivative crowd - however the 3rd derivative just rolled back over in the last few weeks). Solid Blue line shows aggregate credit and that is very close to 2003/4 lows (blue dotted line) which is also the same level as early 1999 levels. look at dotted lines though - the current contraction is now pretty much in line with the worst contraction levels of the previous recession. QE2 will not do anything for the ABCP market and banks won't lend on decent risk-adjusted return levels. How do they grow credit out of this?

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    Total credit market contraction continues but the contraction has slowed (so there is something for the 2nd derivative crowd - however the 3rd derivative just rolled back over in the last few weeks). Solid Blue line shows aggregate credit and that is very close to 2003/4 lows (blue dotted line) which is also the same level as early 1999 levels. look at dotted lines though - the current contraction is now pretty much in line with the worst contraction levels of the previous recession. QE2 will not do anything for the ABCP market and banks won't lend on decent risk-adjusted return levels. How do they grow credit out of this?

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    80 views1 page

    Credit Contraction

    Uploaded by

    CreditTrader
    Total credit market contraction continues but the contraction has slowed (so there is something for the 2nd derivative crowd - however the 3rd derivative just rolled back over in the last few weeks). Solid Blue line shows aggregate credit and that is very close to 2003/4 lows (blue dotted line) which is also the same level as early 1999 levels. look at dotted lines though - the current contraction is now pretty much in line with the worst contraction levels of the previous recession. QE2 will not do anything for the ABCP market and banks won't lend on decent risk-adjusted return levels. How do they grow credit out of this?

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 1

    3500 120%

    ABCP Market Size ($bn) (LHS)


    110%
    C&I Loans ($bn) (LHS)
    3000 Total C&I Loans plus ABCP (LHS) 100%

    YoY Growth in C&I Loans (RHS) 90%


    Real Growth in Bank Credit (RHS) 80%
    2500
    70%

    60%
    2000
    50%

    40%
    1500
    30%

    20%
    1000
    10%

    0%
    500 -10%

    -20%

    0 -30%
    1/3/1990 1/3/1993 1/3/1996 1/3/1999 1/3/2002 1/3/2005 1/3/2008

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