Dow Jones Industrial Average (Monthly Log Scale)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has become flawed (for wave counting purposes)
over the years as it is an “average,” and not a true index of stocks. It is for this
reason that we don’t model the DJIA. However, the DJIA has a much longer history
than the S&P 500 and is useful in getting our “bearings” on the longer term wave
model. 2000
< III > -B-
-V- -D-
REPRINTED from 9/7/2010
-A-
-C- -E-
< IV >
- III - - IV - 2018-2030
1966
<I> -I- This period looks congestive/correcitve.
-V- -X- The Wave -V- did not start until the
- II - beginning of 1995.
(X)
- III - -Y-
1929
(Y) -W- < II >
<X> (W) - IV - 1982
-I-
-D-
-B-
- II -

-E-
<Y>
-C-
II
The Supercyle Wave II, which began in 1860,
concluded in 1949.
-A-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 ~ Monthly Log Scale The (A) Wave down that began late 2007/early 2008 appears to be an “elongated flat,”
which is an “abc” pattern with a HUGE c-wave. These ONLY appear within triangles. If
that’s correct, then this Primary -C- wave stands a good chance of becoming a triangle.

9/1/2000 -B-
(Z)
< III >
(Y)
“b”
-D-
(B)
(X)
(W)
“a”
(D)
(X)
(X)

(W)
(X)

-E-
(E) < IV >
-C- 2018-2030
(Z)
(Y) (C)
-A-
Baby Boomers will have fully exited the
Stock Market by this point
“c”
(A)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 ~ Weekly Non-Log Scale REPRINTED from 1/2/2011
One of the axioms of wave counting is this: “If there is way for a wave to take longer to complete,
assume it will.” This has been especially true of this current (B) Wave. Notice how long it has taken
the S&P 500 to take back the 1255 level from its lows. It took only 24 weeks to drop 590 S&P points
while it has taken 95 weeks to take it back. The point is that both the structure of the move off the
lows and the time it has taken to rally, relative to the previous drop, are all strong clues that this rally
is a corrective (B) wave.
(B)

“y”
c
1313
-5-
Critical Inflection Zone
1255 a
-3-

-1-
-4-
“w”

“x”
-2-
b

alt: (A)

“c”
(A)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 ~ Weekly Log Scale
This “Critical Inflection Zone” was highlighted early this month and it’s worth reviewing. Markets have
memories of the past. There were plenty of investors who were long and/or “buying the dip” in 2008
around this zone. They eventually saw one of the most devastating moves in the history of the stock
market. There are plenty of longs who are now relieved to see much of the loss recouped--continued
sell pressure in this zone would not surprise.

1313
Critical Inflection Zone
1255

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 ~ Daily Log Scale
“y”
c
-5-

a
-3-
d
-1- -4-
“w” b
g

e
e -2-
c “x”
a
b
c f

d This has been our count for over five months now! It’s been noted in the last few weeks that the last
leg up, the wave -5-, was beginning to resemble a “correction” more than an “impulse.” That
b development is making it a little more difficult to call this a c-wave with a “y.” It’s possible that the
Wave -5- is a terminal type of configuration which might explain the “corrective look.”

Bottom Line: The Wave -5- here has reached it’s wave target objective. According to this
count, the S&P must see a good correction lower now.

(A)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 ~ Daily Log Scale

The alternative count would be that the “x” wave concluded later in what would be
described as a textbook “expanding triangle.” From the “x” lows, we might be witnessing a
“y”
type a “diametric” pattern that would take the “bow-tie” shape--just the opposite of the
“diamond” shaped diametric that began the entire advance. g
e

d
c
b
“w” a f
g d
e

f
c b
a
e
c
“x”

a d

(A)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 ~ Daily (Log) with Weekly Support and Resistance
c
-5-

Mr. Market is struggling to

remain within this channel
(b)

REPRINTED from 1/23/2011 (d)

-3-
(5)

(3)
(e)
(c)
-4-
(1) (a)
(4)
-1-
(5)
(3) (2)

(1)
Time is out for this particular wave count. The theory here would be that we
just witnessed the conclusion of a “terminal” Wave -5- and, so, the c-wave has
(4)
concluded. I am adjusting “Sell Stop” levels in accordance with this concept. I
will sell, to initiate shorts, on a break of 1271, risking only 20% of Max. Short.

(2)

-2-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 ~ Daily (Log) with Weekly Support and Resistance
c
-5-
This might be one way to count
(5)
out an “impulsive wave -5-.
(3)

(1)

[3] (4)
[1]
(2)
[4]

[2]

-3-

1173
-4-

No matter what the precise wave count might be, “something” concluded on
Thursday. Friday’s decline was the sharpest and largest of the advance from
1,173. This is normally a signal that a correction, of some kind, is underway.
Our “sell stop” for this week is the same as last week--a break below 1271 will
force us to initiate shorts (20% of a Max Short Position). Resistance this week
should be 1,295. If the market doesn’t trigger our sells stop below 1271, then
we will short the market at 1,290, just below the weekly resistance.

-2-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any

kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is Wave Symbology
NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author’s "I" or "A" = Grand Supercycle
interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not I  or A  = Supercycle
trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions <I>or <A> = Cycle
opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information -I- or -A- = Primary
contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author (I) or (A) = Intermediate
believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to "1“ or "a" = Minor
the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for 1  or a  = Minute
information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and -1- or -a- = Minuette
is not for everyone. (1) or (a) = Sub-minuette
[1] or [a] = Micro
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro
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