Potential impact of Proposed Mandatory Kindergarten

Briefing Presentation by Class Size Matters to New York City Council May 24, 2012

General Implications of Proposal

Mandatory Kindergarten would lead to an estimated
addition of 3,000-6,000 students in the NYC public schools (NYT, 3/21/12);

When DOE closed ACS daycare centers in 2010, 3,000

more Kindergarten students entered the system;

IBO cites this development as a major contribution to large

increases in Kindergarten class sizes;

Share of Kindergarten students in classes over the

contractual limit of 25 increased from 6.6% to 7.9%, mainly driven by schools in areas where daycare centers were closed.

Implications for Existing PreK Seats

Space crunch induced by influx of additional
Kindergarten students could produce an increased loss of Pre-K seats

This occurs during a time of rising demand for Pre-K:

28,815 applications in 2011 v. 25,487 in 2010

In 2011, only 68% applicants were admitted to Pre-K, a

drop from 72%; over 9,000 children rejected

This year the number of Pre-K seats in DOE buildings

dropped to lowest level since 2006

Pre-K Seats in DOE Buildings, 2006-2011

22,500 22,000 21,710 21,604 21,500 21,335 21,000 22,014 21,656

20,500 20,374

20,000

19,500 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Kindergarten Seats Currently Inadequate

Even without mandatory Kindergarten, there are not
enough seats for zoned Kindergarten students

This has led to Kindergarten waitlists in all boroughs &

in nearly one fifth of elementary schools

Additionally, class sizes in K & early grades are highest

in 13 years, though lower class size one of few reforms proven to narrow achievement gap and lead to more learning for all students

This is an ongoing crisis which cannot be ignored

Wait lists worse in 3 out of 5 boroughs this year

No. of K students on wait lists for zoned neighborhood schools 2009-2012
1000 900 800 720 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Man Bronx Brooklyn Queens SI 88 131 76 22 47 235 182 462 2009 2010 2011 2012 942

More than 2400 Kindergarten students on wait lists in April for zoned schools
Zoned Kindergarten wait lists citywide, 2009-2012
3000 2569 2406

2500

2000 1880

1500

1000

500

499

0 2009 2010 2011 2012

% Elementary Schools with waitlists by district

60%

52% 50% 50%

41% 40%

42% 41%

35% 31% 30% 29% 30%

21% 20% 14% 11% 19% 17% 16% 11% 9% 7% 5% 4% 6% 5% 5% 7%

14%

10%

0% 2 3 4 6 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 17 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Kindergarten Wait Lists

Though some children will drop off wait lists over time,
numbers show extreme pressures on schools to sacrifice cluster rooms and further increase class size not just in K, but in all grades as students move upwards

Furthermore, substantial Kindergarten wait lists exist in

some districts with no funded seats in Capital Plan

Especially large wait lists in District 12 in Bronx and

District 21 in Brooklyn where there are NO funded seats in Capital plan

Currently, K enrollment is still growing (gened & CTT)

72000 71429 70000 69268 68000 69273

66000 64806 64000 64132

62000

60000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

K-3 total enrollment also growing (gened + CTT)

285000 280000 278144 275000 275490 280941

270000 266868 265000

269621

260000

255000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

K-3 Class Sizes Largest in 13 years

K-3 Class sizes largest since 1998
(data sources: IBO 1998-2005; DOE 2006-11)
26 25 24 23 22 21 20 23.2 22.9 22.4 24.9 23.9

22.1
21.7 21.6 21.3 21.1 21.4 21.0 20.9

22.1

19
18

42% of Kindergarteners in classes of 25 or more

2010 first year since 1998 that more K students in classes of 25 or more than 20 or less since 1999
70% 60% 58%

50%
41% 38% 33% 30% 27% 20% 23% 20% 20% 24% 21% 17% 10% 8% 9% 9% 20% 16% % at 20 or less 37% 42% 38% 33% % at 25 or more

40%

39%

40%

40%

7%

0%

% of Kindergarten students in classes of 25 or more (by Borough)

60 52

50
43 40 38 2007 31 30 23 20 14 10 14 17 17 27 2008 2009 2010 2011 42 42

0 Brook Man Queens Staten I Bronx Citywide

Background on Capital Plan Promises

When Mayor Bloomberg introduced his first Capital
Plan in 2005, he said it would achieve the following goals: Alleviate overcrowding Provide space for classes of 20 or less in grades K-3 in
all schools Eliminate the need for trailers

NONE of these goals have been achieved, and

overcrowding in elementary schools and k-3 class sizes now WORSE than in 2005

Elementary Schools More Overcrowded than in 2006

According to the historic Formula in the Blue Book more
elementary school buildings are overcrowded & 50,000 more ES students are in overcrowded buildings than in 2006.
Utilization Rate (Historic) # buildings 100% or over # students % students % of buildings 2006-2007 2010-2011

257
118156 24% 28%

306
167673 33% 32%

According to target formula, 53% of all elementary school students are in overcrowded buildings
% PS Students in Buildings 100% or over in 2010 -2011 (Target)
80% 70% 74% 72%

60%
50% 40% 30% 20% 48% 51% 53%

41%

10%
0% Staten Island Bronx Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Total

Actual need for new seats

DOE has explicitly admitted that their estimates show
a need for about 50,000 seats, with 16,186 unfunded;

Our estimates of need from building starts alone,

using City Planning multiplier, is more than 78,000 seats , which is likely to be underestimate;

Doesnt count need to alleviate existing overcrowding

or to reduce class size;

Doesnt count need to regain lost cluster and

specialty rooms, or eliminate trailers;

Doesnt count need for more pre-K seats.

DOE sharply cut back on capital plan after Nov. 2010

New Seats in capital plan
60,000 50,000 50,074

40,000 33,888 30,000 25,142 20,000 25,142

30,377

30,377

28,866

10,000

Spending on capacity back loaded to FY 14

Recommendations
Though proposal to make Kindergarten mandatory is
laudable, this would add thousands of students to an already overcrowded and underfunded system, and would undercut expected gains;

CSM recommends that funding for school capacity projects

be accelerated and moved from FY 14 to next year;

Comptrollers office points out that this would add no costs

to taxpayers, but would produce 15K additional jobs, potentially save millions in the long term by taking advantage of low interest rates and construction costs, and create more school seats.
(NYC Capital Acceleration Plan: Creating Jobs Today by Improving Tomorrow's Infrastructure, May 2012)

Public school parents calling for more school construction in 1950s at Brooklyn Borough Hall