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Contents
2.1 Sample Spaces & Events ............................................................................................. 1
2.2 Interpretations of Probability ........................................................................................ 5
2.3 Addition Rules .............................................................................................................. 7
2.4 Conditional Probability ................................................................................................. 9
2.5 Multiplication and Total Probability Rules .................................................................. 10
2.6 Independence ............................................................................................................ 12
2.7 Bayes’ Theorem ......................................................................................................... 14
2.8 Random Variable ....................................................................................................... 16
2.1 Sample Spaces & Events
The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is called the sample space. This
is often denoted by the symbol S.
Example 2.1.1
Consider the experiment of tossing a die. If we are interested in the number that shows on
the top face, the sample space would be { }
1
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 . S =
If we interested only in even number, the sample space is simply { }
2
2, 4, 6 S =
If we interested only in prime number, the sample space is { }
3
2, 3, 5 S =
Sample spaces can also be described graphically with tree diagrams.
When a sample space can be constructed in several steps or stages, we can represent each
of the n
1
ways of completing the first step as a branch of a tree.
Each of the ways of completing the second step can be represented as n
2
branches starting
from the ends of the original branches, and so forth.
Example 2.1.2
Each message in a digital communication is classified as to whether it is received within the
time specified by the system design. If three messages are classified, use a tree diagram to
represent the sample space of possible outcomes.
Each message can either be received on time or late. The possible results for three
messages can be displayed by eight branches in the tree diagrams shown in Fig. 2.1.
Figure 2.1 Tree Diagram for Three Messages
An event is a collection of outcomes from the sample space S. Events will be denoted by A,
B, E
1
, E
2
and etc.
Example 2.1.3
Given the sample space
{ }
0 , S t t = ≥ where t is the life in years of a certain washing
machine, then the event A that the washing machine fails before the end of fifth year is the
subset
{ }
0 5 . A t t = ≤ <
The union of the two events A and B, denoted by the symbol , A B ∪ is the event containing
all the outcomes that belong to A or B or both.
The intersection of the two events A and B, denoted by the symbol , A B ∩ is the events
containing all the outcomes in both A and B.
The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all outcomes of S that are
not in A. We denote the complement of A by the symbol . A′
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, if
, A B ∩ = ∅
that is, A and B have no outcomes
in common. In particular, A and A’ are mutually exclusive.
Figure 2.2 Venn Diagrams.
Multiplication Rules
If an operation can be described as a sequence of k steps, and if the number of ways of
completing step 1 is n1, and if the number of ways of completing step 2 is n
2
for each way of
completing step 1, and if the number of ways of completing step 3 is n
3
for each way of
completing step 2, and so forth, the total number of ways of completing the operation is
1 2 k
n n n × × ×
Example 2.1.4
Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself. He has the choice of ordering chips from
two brands, a hard drive from four, memory from three, and an accessory bundle from five
local stores. How many different ways can Sam order the parts?
Solutions:
Since
1 2 3 4
2, 4, 3, and 5, n n n n = = = = there are
1 2 3 4
2 4 3 5 120 n n n n × × × = × × × =
different ways to order the parts.
Ordered Samples
Suppose we have items numbered 1, 2, …, n and are drawing an ordered sample of size r.
If we do not replace each “number” after it is drawn, then choices for second draw depend
on first draw but regardless there are (n – 1) choices.
Also, whatever the first two draws, there are (n – 2) ways to draw the third number, etc.
Thus, there are ( ) ( )
fa c t o r s
1 1
n
r
r
n n n r P − − + =
ways to choose an ordered sample of
size r n ≤ without replacement from { } 1, 2 , , . n
Permutation with Similar Objects
Example 2.1.5
In a college football training session, the defensive coordinator needs to have 10 players
standing in a row. Among these 10 players, there are 1 freshman, 2 sophomores, 4 juniors,
and 3 seniors respectively. How many different ways can they be arranged in a row if only
their class level will be distinguish?
Solution
The total number of arrangement is
10!
12, 600
1!2!4!3!
=
Unordered Samples
Consider sampling without replacement. Now, suppose we are interested in the number of
ways of selecting r objects from n without regard to order.
These selections are called combinations. It is denoted as ,
n
r
C and the number of
combinations is
( )
!
! !
n
n
r r n r
 
=

−
\ .
Example 2.1.6
A young boy asks his mother to get five GameBox
TM
cartridges from his collection of 10
arcade and 5 sport games. How many ways are there that his mother will get 3 arcade and 2
sport games, respectively?
Solution
The number of ways of selecting 3 cartridges from 10 is
( )
10
10!
120
3 3! 10 3 !
 
= =

−
\ .
The number of ways of selecting 2 cartridges from 5 is
( )
5
5!
10
2 2! 5 2 !
 
= =

−
\ .
Using the multiplication rule ( )
1 2
120 10 1200 n n × = = ways.
2.2 Interpretations of Probability
Used to quantify likelihood or chance
Used to represent risk or uncertainty in engineering applications
Can be interpreted as our degree of belief or relative frequency
Whenever a sample space consists of N possible outcomes that are equally likely, the
probability of each outcome is
1
N
.
For a discrete sample space, the probability of an event A, denoted as ( ) , P A equals the
sum of the probabilities of the outcomes in A.
Example 2.2.1
A random experiment can result in one of the outcomes { } , , , a b c d with probabilities 0.1,
0.3, 0.5, and 0.1, respectively. Let A denote the event { } , , a b B the event { } , , , b c d and C
the event { }. d
Then,
( )
( )
( )
0.1 0.3 0.4
0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9
0.1
P A
P B
P C
= + =
= + + =
=
Probability is a number that is assigned to each member of a collection of events from a
random experiment that satisfies the following properties:
If S is the sample space and A is any event in a random experiment,
1) ( ) 1 P S =
2) ( ) 0 1 P A ≤ ≤
3) For two events A
1
and A
2
with
1 2
A A ∩ = ∅ then
( ) ( ) ( )
1 2 1 2
P A A P A P A ∪ = +
Example 2.2.2
A statistics class for engineers consists of 25 chemical, 10 mechanical, 10 electrical, and 8
civil engineering students. If a person randomly selected by the lecturer to answer a
question, find the probability that the student chosen is (a) a chemical engineering major, (b)
a civil engineering or an electrical engineering major.
Solution
Denote by I, M, E, and C the students majoring in chemical, mechanical, electrical and civil,
respectively. The total number of students in the class is 53, all of which are equally likely to
be selected.
(a) Since 25 of the 53 students are majoring in chemical ( )
25
53
P I =
(b) Since 18 of the 53 students are civil or electrical, ( )
18
53
P C E ∪ =
2.3 Addition Rules
Probability of a Union
If A and B are two events, then ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ). P A B P A P B P A B ∪ = + − ∩
Mutually Exclusive Events
If A and B are mutually exclusive, then ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B ∪ = +
Three Events
For three events A, B, and C,
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ).
P A B C P A P B P C
P A B P A C P B C P A B C
∪ ∪ = + +
− ∩ − ∩ − ∩ + ∩ ∩
Mutually Exclusive Events
If A
1
, A
2
, …, A
n
are mutually exclusive, then
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 2 1 2 n n
P A A A P A P A P A ∪ ∪ ∪ = + + +
Example 2.3.1
If A, B and C are mutually exclusive events with
( ) ( ) ( ) 0.2, 0.3, and 0.4, P A P B P C = = = determine the following probabilities:
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
a P A B C
b P A B C
c P A B
d P A B C
e P A B C
∪ ∪
∩ ∩
∩
∪ ∩ (
¸ ¸
′ ′ ′ ∩ ∩
Solution
Example 2.3.2
Disks of polycarbonate plastic from a supplier are analyzed for scratch and shock resistance.
The results from 100 disks are summarized as follows:
shock resistance
high low
scratch
resistance
high 70 9
low 16 5
(a) If disk is selected at random, what is the probability that its scratch resistance is high
and its shock resistance is high?
(b) If a disk is selected at random, what is the probability that its scratch resistance is
high or its shock resistance is high?
(c) Consider the event that a disk has high scratch resistance and the event that a disk
has high shock resistance. Are these two events are mutually exclusive?
Solution
(a)
(b)
(c)
2.4 Conditional Probability
To introduce conditional probability, consider an example involving manufactured
parts.
Let D denote the event that a part is defective and let F denote the event that a part
has a surface flaw.
Then, we denote the probability of D given, or assuming, that a part has a surface
flaw as P(DF). This notation is read as the conditional probability of D given F,
and it is interpreted as the probability that a part is defective, given that the part has a
surface flaw.
Definition
The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted by
( )
P B A is defined by
( )
( )
( )
P A B
P B A
P A
∩
= for ( ) 0. P A >
Example 2.4.1
The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is ( ) 0.83; P D =
the probability that it arrives on time is ( ) 0.82; P A = and the probability that it departs and
arrives on time is ( ) 0.78. P D A ∩ =
Find a probability that a plane
(a) arrives on time given that it departed on time;
(b) departed on time given that it has arrived on time.
Solution
Example 2.4.2
Consider an industrial process in the textile industry in which strips of a particular type of
cloth are being produced. These strips can be defective in two ways, length and nature of
texture. For the case of the latter, the process of identification is very complicated. It is
known from historical information on the process that 10% of strips fail the length test, 5%
fail the texture test, and only 0.8% fails both tests. If a strip is selected randomly from the
process and a quick measurement identifies it as failing the length test, what is the
probability that it is texture defective?
Solution
2.5 Multiplication and Total Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule
If in an experiment the events A and B can both occur, then
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P B A P A P A B P B ∩ = =
Total Probability Rule (two events)
For any events A and B,
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P B P B A P B A P B A P A P B A P A ′ ′ ′ = ∩ + ∩ = +
Total Probability Rule (multiple events)
Assume E
1
, E
2
, …, E
k
are k mutually exclusive sets. Then,
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 2
1 1 2 2
k
k k
P B P B E P B E P B E
P B E P E P B E P E P B E P E
= ∩ + ∩ + + ∩
= + + +
Example 2.5.1
Suppose that
( )
0.4 P A B = and ( ) 0.5. P B = Determine the following:
(a) ( ) P A B ∩ (b) ( ) P A B ′ ∩
Solution
(a)
(b)
Example 2.5.2
The probability is 1% that an electrical connector that is kept dry fails during the warranty
period of a portable computer. If the connector is ever wet, the probability of a failure during
the warranty period is 5%. If 90% of the connectors are kept dry and 10% are wet, what
proportion of connectors fail during the warranty period?
Solution
2.ó Independence
Independence (two events)
Two events are independent if any one of the following is true:
(a)
( ) ( ) P A B P A =
(b)
( ) ( ) P B A P B =
(c) ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B ∩ =
Example 2.6.1
A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for emergencies. The
probability that the fire engine is available when needed is 0.98, and the probability that the
ambulance is available when called is 0.92. In the event of an injury resulting from a burning
building, find the probability that both the ambulance and the fire engine will available.
Solution
Independence (multiple events)
The events
1 2
, , , ,
n
E E E are independent if and only if for any subset of these events
1 2
, , , ,
k
i i i
E E E
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 2 1 2 k k
i i i i i i
P E E E P E P E P E ∩ ∩ ∩ = × × ×
Example 2.6.2
The following system operates only if there is a path of functional device from left to the right.
The probability that each device functions is as shown. What is the probability that the circuit
operates? Assume independence.
Figure 2.3 An electrical system.
Solution
Example 2.6.3
The probability that a lab specimen contains high levels of contamination is 0.10. Five
samples are checked, and the samples are independent.
(a) What is the probability that none contains high levels of contamination?
(b) What is the probability that exactly one contains high levels of contamination?
(c) What is the probability that at least one contains high levels of contamination?
Solution
2.7 Bayes' Tbeorem
Definition
( )
( ) ( )
( )
P B A P A
P A B
P B
= for ( ) 0 P B > .
Bayes’ Theorem
If
1 2
, , , ,
n
E E E are k mutually exclusive events and B is any event. Then,
( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 1
1
1 1 2 2 k k
P B E P E
P E B
P B E P E P B E P E P B E P E
=
+ + +
for ( ) 0 P B >
Example 2.7.1
A new process of more accurately detecting anaerobic respiration in cells in being tested.
The new process is important due to its high accuracy, its lack of extensive experimentation,
and the fact that it could be used to identify five different categories of organisms: obligate
anaerobes, facultative anaerobes, aerotolerant, microaerophiles, and nanaerobes instead of
using a single test for each category. The process claims that it can identify obligate
anaerobes with 97.8% accuracy, facultative anaerobes with 98.1% accuracy, aerotolerant
with 95.9% accuracy, microaerophiles with 96.5% accuracy, and nanaerobes with 99.2%
accuracy. If any category is not present, the process does not signal. Samples are prepared
for the calibration of the process and 31% of them contain obligate anaerobes, 27% contain
facultative anaerobes, 21% contain microaerophiles, 13% contain nanaerobes, and 8%
contain aerotolerant. A test sample is selected randomly.
(a) What is the probability that the process will signal?
(b) If the test signals, what is the probability that microaerophiles are present?
Solution
Example 2.7.2
Customers are used to evaluate preliminary product designs. In the past, 95% of highly
successful products received good reviews, 60% of moderately successful products received
good reviews, and 10% of poor products received good reviews. In addition, 40% of
products have been highly successful, 35% have been moderately successful and 25% have
been poor products.
(a) What is probability that is product attains a good review?
(b) If a new product attains a good review, what is the probability that it will be a highly
successful product?
(c) If a product does not attain a good review, what is the probability that it will be a
highly successful product?
Solution
(a)
(b)
(c)
2.8 Random Variable
Definition
A random variable is a function that assigns a real number to each outcome in the sample
space of a random experiment.
Definition
A discrete random variable is a random variable with a finite (or countably infinite) range.
A continuous random variable is a random variable with an interval (either finite or infinite)
of real numbers for its range.
In some cases, the random variable X is actually discrete but, because the range of possible
values is so large, it might be more convenient to analyze X as a continuous random
variable.
Examples of continuous random variables:
Electrical current, length, pressure, temperature, time, voltage, weight
(Need to use measurement instruments)
Examples of discrete random variables:
Number of scratches on a surface, proportion of defective parts among 1000 tested, number
of transmitted bits received in error. (Countable)
Example 2.8.1
Decide whether a discrete or continuous random variable is the best model for each of the
following variables:
(a) The time until a projectile returns to earth. (Continuous)
(b) The number of times a transistor in a computer memory changes state in one
operation. (Discrete)
(c) The volume of gasoline that is lost to evaporation during the filling of a gas tank.
(Continuous)
(d) The outside diameter of a machined shaft. (Continuous)
(e) The number of cracks exceeding onehalf inch in 10 miles of an interstate highway.
(Discrete)
(f ) The weight of an injectionmolded plastic part. (Continuous)
(g) The number of molecules in a sample of gas. (Discrete)
(h) The concentration of output from a reactor. (Continuous)
1. Example 2.1.1.Example 2.2 Each message in a digital communication is classified as to whether it is received within the time specified by the system design. Each message can either be received on time or late. The possible results for three messages can be displayed by eight branches in the tree diagrams shown in Fig. E1. { } { } The union of the two events A and B. 2.1 Tree Diagram for Three Messages An event is a collection of outcomes from the sample space S. E2 and etc.3 Given the sample space S = t t ≥ 0 . If three messages are classified. where t is the life in years of a certain washing machine. Figure 2. B. use a tree diagram to represent the sample space of possible outcomes. is the event containing all the outcomes that belong to A or B or both. . then the event A that the washing machine fails before the end of fifth year is the subset A = t 0 ≤ t < 5 . denoted by the symbol A ∪ B. Events will be denoted by A.
is the events containing all the outcomes in both A and B. denoted by the symbol A ∩ B. A and A’ are mutually exclusive. Two events A and B are mutually exclusive.2 Venn Diagrams. Figure 2. that is. if A ∩ B = ∅. The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all outcomes of S that are not in A.The intersection of the two events A and B. We denote the complement of A by the symbol A′. A and B have no outcomes in common. In particular. .
Thus. If we do not replace each “number” after it is drawn. Also. there are different ways to order the parts. whatever the first two draws. n }. 2 sophomores. and so forth. How many different ways can Sam order the parts? Solutions: Since n1 = 2.1. then choices for second draw depend on first draw but regardless there are (n – 1) choices. and if the number of ways of completing step 2 is n2 for each way of completing step 1. etc. 600 1!2!4!3! .5 In a college football training session. the total number of ways of completing the operation is n1 × n2 × × nk Example 2. there are n (n − 1) (n − r + 1 ) = Pr n ways to choose an ordered sample of r fa c t o r s size r ≤ n without replacement from {1. .4 Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself.Multiplication Rules If an operation can be described as a sequence of k steps. the defensive coordinator needs to have 10 players standing in a row. and if the number of ways of completing step 1 is n1. …. n and are drawing an ordered sample of size r. Permutation with Similar Objects Example 2. 2. He has the choice of ordering chips from two brands. memory from three. n3 = 3. 4 juniors. a hard drive from four. How many different ways can they be arranged in a row if only their class level will be distinguish? Solution The total number of arrangement is 10! = 12. and an accessory bundle from five local stores. Among these 10 players.1. there are (n – 2) ways to draw the third number. and if the number of ways of completing step 3 is n3 for each way of completing step 2. there are 1 freshman. n2 = 4. and 3 seniors respectively. n1 × n 2 × n3 × n 4 = 2 × 4 × 3 × 5 = 120 Ordered Samples Suppose we have items numbered 1. 2 . and n4 = 5.
Unordered Samples Consider sampling without replacement. the probability of each outcome is 1 . suppose we are interested in the number of ways of selecting r objects from n without regard to order. and the number of n n! = r r !( n − r ) ! Example 2.6 A young boy asks his mother to get five GameBoxTM cartridges from his collection of 10 arcade and 5 sport games. respectively? Solution The number of ways of selecting 3 cartridges from 10 is 10 10! = = 120 3 3!(10 − 3) ! 5 5! = = 10 2 2!( 5 − 2 ) ! The number of ways of selecting 2 cartridges from 5 is Using the multiplication rule n1 × n 2 = 120 (10 ) = 1200 ways. These selections are called combinations. denoted as P ( A ) . How many ways are there that his mother will get 3 arcade and 2 sport games. Now. the probability of an event A.1. N For a discrete sample space. It is denoted as C combinations is n r . equals the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes in A. Used to quantify likelihood or chance Used to represent risk or uncertainty in engineering applications Can be interpreted as our degree of belief or relative frequency Whenever a sample space consists of N possible outcomes that are equally likely. .
2. find the probability that the student chosen is (a) a chemical engineering major.3 = 0. B the event {b. mechanical.1 P ( B ) = 0.5. all of which are equally likely to be selected.3 + 0.1 + 0.2. E. Solution Denote by I.2 A statistics class for engineers consists of 25 chemical. respectively.1. (a) Since 25 of the 53 students are majoring in chemical P ( I ) = Since 18 of the 53 students are civil or electrical. {a. 1) 2) 3) P(S ) =1 0 ≤ P ( A) ≤ 1 For two events A1 and A2 with A1 ∩ A2 = ∅ then P ( A1 ∪ A2 ) = P ( A1 ) + P ( A2 ) Example 2.4 P ( C ) = 0.3. (b) a civil engineering or an electrical engineering major. and C the students majoring in chemical. and 8 civil engineering students. and C P ( A ) = 0. If a person randomly selected by the lecturer to answer a question.Example 2. Let A denote the event the event {d } . 0. The total number of students in the class is 53.9 Probability is a number that is assigned to each member of a collection of events from a random experiment that satisfies the following properties: If S is the sample space and A is any event in a random experiment. M. and 0. c. b} .5 + 0. b.1. c. P ( C ∪ E ) = 25 53 (b) 18 53 . d } with probabilities 0.1 = 0. respectively.1 A random experiment can result in one of the outcomes 0. 10 mechanical. d } . Then. 10 electrical. electrical and civil. {a.
3.1 If ∪ An ) = P ( A1 ) + P ( A2 ) + + P ( An ) P ( A ) = 0. and P ( C ) = 0. A2.3. P ( A ∪ B ∪ C ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) + P ( C ) − P ( A ∩ B ) − P ( A ∩ C ) − P ( B ∩ C ) + P ( A ∩ B ∩ C ).2.Probability of a Union If A and B are two events. Mutually Exclusive Events If A and B are mutually exclusive. An are mutually exclusive. and C. B and C are mutually exclusive events with (a) P ( A ∪ B ∪ C ) (b) P ( A ∩ B ∩ C ) (c ) P ( A ∩ B ) (d ) P (e) ( A ∪ B) ∩ C P ( A′ ∩ B′ ∩ C ′ ) Solution . determine the following probabilities: A. then P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( A ∩ B ) . then P ( A1 ∪ A2 ∪ Example 2.4. then P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) Three Events For three events A. Mutually Exclusive Events If A1. B. P ( B ) = 0. ….
Example 2. what is the probability that its scratch resistance is high and its shock resistance is high? (b) If a disk is selected at random. what is the probability that its scratch resistance is high or its shock resistance is high? (c) Consider the event that a disk has high scratch resistance and the event that a disk has high shock resistance.3. The results from 100 disks are summarized as follows: shock resistance high scratch resistance high low 70 16 low 9 5 (a) If disk is selected at random. Are these two events are mutually exclusive? Solution (a) (b) (c) .2 Disks of polycarbonate plastic from a supplier are analyzed for scratch and shock resistance.
Find a probability that a plane (a) arrives on time given that it departed on time. consider an example involving manufactured parts.To introduce conditional probability. given that the part has a surface flaw. This notation is read as the conditional probability of D given F. denoted by P ( B A ) is defined by P ( B A) = P ( A ∩ B) for P ( A ) > 0. or assuming. and it is interpreted as the probability that a part is defective.78. the probability that it arrives on time is P ( A ) = 0. and the probability that it departs and arrives on time is P ( D ∩ A ) = 0.4.82. Solution .1 The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P ( D ) = 0. P ( A) Example 2. we denote the probability of D given. Definition The conditional probability of B. Then. Let D denote the event that a part is defective and let F denote the event that a part has a surface flaw. (b) departed on time given that it has arrived on time. given A.83. that a part has a surface flaw as P(DF).
what is the probability that it is texture defective? Solution ! " # Multiplication Rule If in an experiment the events A and B can both occur. It is known from historical information on the process that 10% of strips fail the length test. 5% fail the texture test. the process of identification is very complicated. E2.4. …. P ( B ) = P ( B ∩ E1 ) + P ( B ∩ E 2 ) + = P ( B E1 ) P ( E1 ) + P ( B E 2 ) P ( E 2 ) + + P ( B ∩ Ek ) + P ( B Ek ) P ( Ek ) . Then. These strips can be defective in two ways. and only 0.8% fails both tests.2 Consider an industrial process in the textile industry in which strips of a particular type of cloth are being produced. P ( B ) = P ( B ∩ A ) + P ( B ∩ A′ ) = P ( B A ) P ( A ) + P ( B A′ ) P ( A′ ) Total Probability Rule (multiple events) Assume E1. then P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( B A) P ( A) = P ( A B ) P ( B ) Total Probability Rule (two events) For any events A and B. For the case of the latter. Ek are k mutually exclusive sets.Example 2. length and nature of texture. If a strip is selected randomly from the process and a quick measurement identifies it as failing the length test.
4 and P ( B ) = 0. what proportion of connectors fail during the warranty period? Solution . Determine the following: (b) P ( A ∩ B) P ( A′ ∩ B ) Solution (a) (b) Example 2.5.5.1 Suppose that (a) P ( A B ) = 0. the probability of a failure during the warranty period is 5%.Example 2.5. If the connector is ever wet. If 90% of the connectors are kept dry and 10% are wet.2 The probability is 1% that an electrical connector that is kept dry fails during the warranty period of a portable computer.
The probability that each device functions is as shown. The probability that the fire engine is available when needed is 0.$ Independence (two events) Two events are independent if any one of the following is true: (a) (b) (c) P ( A B ) = P ( A) P ( B A) = P ( B ) P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A) P ( B ) Example 2. .6. Solution Independence (multiple events) The events E 1 .92. Figure 2.6. Ei2 . are independent if and only if for any subset of these events Ei1 .1 A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for emergencies.98. E 2 . find the probability that both the ambulance and the fire engine will available. In the event of an injury resulting from a burning building. Eik . P Ei1 ∩ Ei2 ∩ Example 2. . What is the probability that the circuit operates? Assume independence. and the probability that the ambulance is available when called is 0. E n . .3 An electrical system.2 ( ∩ Eik = P ( Ei1 ) × P ( Ei2 ) × ) × P Eik ( ) The following system operates only if there is a path of functional device from left to the right.
(a) What is the probability that none contains high levels of contamination? (b) What is the probability that exactly one contains high levels of contamination? (c) What is the probability that at least one contains high levels of contamination? Solution . and the samples are independent.3 The probability that a lab specimen contains high levels of contamination is 0. Five samples are checked.Solution Example 2.6.10.
A test sample is selected randomly. its lack of extensive experimentation. facultative anaerobes with 98. Bayes’ Theorem If E 1 . the process does not signal. E n .8% accuracy. are k mutually exclusive events and B is any event. what is the probability that microaerophiles are present? Solution .2% accuracy. 13% contain nanaerobes.5% accuracy. aerotolerant with 95. Then. microaerophiles with 96.9% accuracy. facultative anaerobes. and nanaerobes with 99. .1% accuracy. E 2 . The new process is important due to its high accuracy.% & ' #( Definition P ( A B) = P ( B A) P ( A) P ( B) for P ( B ) > 0 . (a) (b) What is the probability that the process will signal? If the test signals. and the fact that it could be used to identify five different categories of organisms: obligate anaerobes. P ( E1 B ) = P ( B E1 ) P ( E1 ) + P ( B E2 ) P ( E2 ) + P ( B E1 ) P ( E1 ) + P ( B Ek ) P ( Ek ) for P (B) > 0 Example 2. 27% contain facultative anaerobes.7. microaerophiles.1 A new process of more accurately detecting anaerobic respiration in cells in being tested. If any category is not present. and 8% contain aerotolerant. Samples are prepared for the calibration of the process and 31% of them contain obligate anaerobes. aerotolerant. and nanaerobes instead of using a single test for each category. 21% contain microaerophiles. The process claims that it can identify obligate anaerobes with 97.
(a) (b) (c) What is probability that is product attains a good review? If a new product attains a good review. and 10% of poor products received good reviews. 95% of highly successful products received good reviews. what is the probability that it will be a highly successful product? If a product does not attain a good review.2 Customers are used to evaluate preliminary product designs. 60% of moderately successful products received good reviews. In addition. 40% of products have been highly successful.7. In the past.Example 2. what is the probability that it will be a highly successful product? Solution (a) (b) (c) . 35% have been moderately successful and 25% have been poor products.
Definition A discrete random variable is a random variable with a finite (or countably infinite) range. voltage. number of transmitted bits received in error. In some cases. weight (Need to use measurement instruments) Examples of discrete random variables: Number of scratches on a surface.1 Decide whether a discrete or continuous random variable is the best model for each of the following variables: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f ) (g) (h) The time until a projectile returns to earth. (Continuous) The number of times a transistor in a computer memory changes state in one operation. time. (Discrete) The concentration of output from a reactor.8. (Discrete) The weight of an injectionmolded plastic part.) Definition * A random variable is a function that assigns a real number to each outcome in the sample space of a random experiment. (Continuous) The outside diameter of a machined shaft. (Discrete) The volume of gasoline that is lost to evaporation during the filling of a gas tank. (Continuous) The number of molecules in a sample of gas. proportion of defective parts among 1000 tested. it might be more convenient to analyze X as a continuous random variable. the random variable X is actually discrete but. because the range of possible values is so large. Examples of continuous random variables: Electrical current. length. pressure. (Continuous) The number of cracks exceeding onehalf inch in 10 miles of an interstate highway. A continuous random variable is a random variable with an interval (either finite or infinite) of real numbers for its range. (Continuous) . (Countable) Example 2. temperature.
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