2 Probability (1)

Basic Concepts of Probability

In this chapter, we introduce some elementary probability concepts, indicate how probabilities can be interpreted,
and show how the rules of probability can be applied to compute the probabilities of many interesting events.
In general, probability is the chance something will happen. Probabilities are expressed as fractions ( 1/6, ½ , 8/9 ) or as
decimals (0.167, 0.500, 0.889) between zero and one. Assigning a probability zero means that something can never happen; a
probability 1 indicates that something will always happen. Some basic notions are given below:
(i) A Random experiment
An experiment which produces distinct results even though it is repeated a large number of times under essentially
similar conditions is called a random experiment.
(ii) Sample Space
The set S of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called a Sample space. An element in S, is called a
sample point. Consider the experiment of
rolling a die and observe the dots on the top face; S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, n(S) = 6 1 = 6
a coin is tossed S = {H, T} n(S) = 21
a pair of coins is tossed, S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} , n(S) = 22 = 22 = 4
let coin is tossed 3 times then S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}, n(S) = 222 = 23 = 8
a coin is tossed 4 times S = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH, HHTT, TTHH, HTTH,
THHT, HTHT, THTH, HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT }, n(S) = 2  2  2  2 = 24 = 16
Suppose that three items are selected at random from a manufacturing process out of a
collection of 10 items. Each item is inspected and classified defective, D, or non-defective, N In this case, the
sample space is S = {DDD, DDN, DND, NDD, DNN, NDN, NND, NNN} , n(S) = 222 = 8
Asking for opinion about a new car model. S = {Like, Dislike, Undecided}
(iii) An Event
An event A is a collection of simple events. or, in other words, a subset of the Sample space S. The empty set  is
called the impossible event, and S, the sample space is called the certain or sure event.
(a) A Simple Event
A simple event is the most basic outcome of a random experiment.
An event as a singleton is called a simple event.
(b) Equally Likely Events
Two events A and B are said to be equally likely, when one event is as likely to occur as the other. In other words,
each event should occur in equal number in repeated trials. For example when a fair coin is tossed, the head is as likely to
appear as the tail. (in tossing a single coin A = {H} , B = {T} , S = {H, T} )
(c) Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur simultaneously. i.e. A  B = 
In rolling , a dice, we have S = {1, 2, 3 , 4 , 5 6} and consider A = {2, 4, 6}, B = {1, 3, 5}
Here AB =  also AB = S, so A and B are mutually exclusive as well as exhuastive
(d) Exhaustive Events
Events are said to be collectively exhaustive, when the union of mutually exclusive events is the entire sample space S.
For instance, event A and Ac form a partition as they are mutually exclusive and their union is the entire sample space.
A  B =  and A  B = S
In above example, C = {3, 5} and D = {2, 6}, these are mutually exclusive events but not exhaustive
(e) Complementary Events
The complement of an event A is the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not included in the outcomes of

event A. The complement of A is denoted by A (read “A bar”).
(f) Compound Events (Union and Intersections)
Compound events can often be viewed as a composition of two or more other events.
(i) The union A  B of A and B consists of all points in A or B or both.
The intersection A  B of A and B consists of all points in both A and B.

2. The Probability of an Event (a classical approach)

2 Probability (2)

The probability of event A is defined as

n(A) no. of favourable cases to A
P(A) = n(S) = Total possible cases
This is a classical approach.
If an experiment can result in any one of N different equally likely outcomes, and if exactly n of these outcomes
correspond to event A, then the probability of event A is
n
P(A) = N

Other approaches are relative frequency approach and subjective approach. Section D from here on 4-10-21
Example 1.
Give a collectively exhaustive list of the possible outcomes of tossing two dice. Also give the probability for each of
the totals 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 10 and 11 in the rolling of two dice:.
(Bluman Example 4.1)
Example 2.
Consider the activity when two dice are thrown.
We have the sample space:
S = { (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6) ,
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6),
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6) } P(D/B) = 9/18 = 1/2
Possible sums = 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
Lets we define certain events;
(1) Event A that same numbers appear P(A) = 6/36 = 1/6
(2) Event B = that sum of the dots is even P(B) = 18/36 = ½ , P(B) = 1  P(B) = 1  P(that the sum is odd) = 1 – 18/36 = 18/36
(3) Event C = that the sum of the dots is odd P(C ) = 18/36 = ½, P(C) = 1 - P(C) = 1 – P(B) = 1 – 18/36 = 18/36
(4) Event D = that sum is divisible by 4 P(D) = 9/36 = 1/4
(5) Event E = that the sum is divisible by 3 P(E) = 12/36
(6) Event F that sum is 7 P(F) = 6/36
(7) Event H that sum is 11 P(H) = 2/36
(8) Event K that sum is divisible by 4 or same numbers appear K = D  A = 12/36 = 1/3
DA = {x | either x  D or x  A or x both D and A}
Observe that
P(DA) = P(D) + P(A) – P(DA) = 9/36 + 6/36 – 3/36 = 12/36 = 1/3 (for not mutually exclusive case)
(9) Event G that sum is 7 or sum is 11 G = FH = P(G ) = 8/36
P(FH) = P(F) + P(H) = 6/36 + 2/36 = 8/36 (for mutually exclusive events)
Called Addition Law
When the events are mutually exclusive
Addition law becomes
P(FH) = P(F) + P(H) = 6/36 + 2/36 = 8/36
Similarly, P(DE) = P(D) + P(E)  P(DE) = 9/36 + 12/36  1/36 (verify)
Conditional Probability
P(if the event B occurs first then find the probability of D) = P(D/B) = 9/18 = 1/2 we will discuss later

Determine whether these events are mutually exclusive. (Bluman Example 4.15)

Roll a die: Get an even number, and get a number less than 3.
Roll a die: Get a prime number (2, 3, 5), and get an odd number.
Roll a die: Get a number greater than 3, and get a number less than 3.
2 Probability (3)

Select a student in your class: The student has blond hair, and the student has blue eyes.
Select a student in your college: The student is a sophomore, and the student is a business major.
Select any course: It is a calculus course, and it is an English course.
Select a registered voter: The voter is a Republican, and the voter is a Democrat.

Example 3.
A candy dish contains one yellow and two red candies. You close your eyes, choose two candies one at a time from
the dish, and record their colors. What is the probability that (i) both candies are red (ii) one is yellow?
Solution
We are available one yellow and two red candies.
Two of them can be selected in the following number of ways.
Therefore, S = { RR, RY, YR }
1
So P(both red) = 3 and

2
P(one is Yellow) = 3

Note: try this example with the activity of choosing 3 candies. When we are available 5 Red and 2 Yellow
Find the probability that our selection (i) containing 2 red (ii) containing one yellow.
Example 4.
Two cards is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards. Find the probability of getting. (Bluman Example 4.7)

2  C0
13C 39
Both hearts (all are heart) 13/52  12/51 or 52C
2

1
13C 39C
1
One heart (or exactly one heart) 13/52  39/51 + 39/52  13/51 or 52C
2

None of the heart 39/52  38/51

At least one is heart {i.e. either one is heart or both are heart this means P(HN) + P(NH) + P(HH) }
At most one is heart. ( i.e. P(one heart) + P(no heart) = P(HN) + P(NH) + P(NN) )
Note: sometimes cards are drawn with replacement, it will be mentioned. If it is not mentioned, then it means that the cards
are drawn without replacement
Section A from here on 7/10/21
Sol. Case I (with replacement)
P(both heart) = 13/52  13/52
P(one heart) = P(may be first one) + P(second one) = 13/52 39/52 + 39/52  13/52

Special case : when we draw 3 cards and finding the probability of one heart with replacement
P(one heart) = P(may be first) + P(may be second) + P(may be 3rd)
= 13/5239/5239/52 + 39/52  13/52  39/52 + 39/52  39/52  13/52
The case of without replacement
1
13C 39C
2
= 13/5239/5138/50 + 39/52  13/51  38/50 + 39/52  38/51  13/50 or 52C
3

Sol. Case II (without replacement)

P(both heart) = 13/52  12/51
P(one heart) = P(may be first one) + P(second one) = 13/52  39/51 + 39/52  13/51

An automobile manufacturer is concerned about a possible recall of its best-selling four-door sedan. If there were a
recall, there is a probability of 0.25 of a defect in the brake system, 0.18 of a defect in the transmission, 0.17 of a defect in the
fuel system, and 0.40 of a defect in some other area.
What is the probability that the defect is the brakes or the fueling system if the probability of defects in
both systems simultaneously is 0.15? P(BF) = P(B) + P(F) – P(BF) = 0.25 + 0.17 – 0.15 = 0.27
2 Probability (4)

What is the probability that there are no defects in either the brakes or the fueling system? (walpole)
P(BcFc) = P[(BF)c ] = 1 – P(BF) = 1 – 0.27 = 0.73

It is common in many industrial areas to use a filling machine to fill boxes full of product. This occurs in the food
industry as well as other areas in which the product is used in the home, for example, detergent. These machines are not
perfect, and indeed they may A, fill to specification, B, underfill, and C, overfill. Generally, the practice of underfilling is that
which one hopes to avoid. Let P(B) = 0.001 while P(A) = 0.990.
Give P(C).
What is the probability that the machine does not underfill?
What is the probability that the machine either overfills or underfills? (Walpole)

If a family has three children, find the probability that two of the three children are girls. (Bluman Example 4.6)
3. Axioms of Probability
Probability is a number that is assigned to each member of a collection of events from a random experiment that
satisfies the following properties:
If S is the sample space and A is any event in a random experiment,
(i) 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
(ii) P() = 0 , where  is called impossible event
(iii) P(S) = 1 , where S is called sure event
(iv) For two events A and B, with AB = ,
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)
For three events, P(ABC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
Example 5.
A day of the week is selected at random. Find the probability that it is a weekend day.
P(Saturday or Sunday) = P(Saturday) + P(Sunday) = 1/7 + 1/7 = 2/7
Example 6.
A card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards, determine the probability that the card is either
a three of clubs or a six of diamonds? ( Chapter 2“Probability and Statistics” by Schaum’s Outline Series)
A card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards, what is the probability that
the card is either an ace, or a face card or a numbered card?
Solution (ii)
P(AFN) = P(A) + P(F) + P(N) = 4/52 + 12/52 + 36/52
A card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards, what is the probability that the card is either a
diamond, or a face card or a king?
Solution (i)
P(a three of clubs or a six of diamonds) = P(a three of clubs) + P(a six of diamonds)
Let Event A : a three of clubs and Event B : a six of diamonds, so we are required
1 1 1
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) = 52 + 52 = 26

Solution (iii) Sec A has done on 30/9/21

a club, a heart, a spade or a diamond, an ace, a jack, a queen, a king
2 Probability (5)

Club, Heart, Spade and diamond

A means Ace
J means Jack
Q means queen
K means King
P(DFK) = P(D) + P(F) + P(K) – P(DF) – P(FK) – P(DK) + P (DFK))
= 13/52 + 12/52 + 4/52  3/52  4/52 1/52 + 1/52 = 22/52
P(DFK) = 22/52

(b) P(that the card is with exactly one characteristic out of the three) = 16/52
Example 7.
A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as likely to occur as an odd number. If E is the event
that a number less than 4 occurs on a single toss of the die, find P(E).
P(a number less than 4) = P(1) + P(2) + P(3) = 1/6 + 2/6 + 1/6
let A be the event that an even number turns up and let B be the event that a number divisible by 3 occurs.
Find P(A ∪ B) and P(A ∩ B). (Walpole 9th Ed Exp. 2.25)
S = {1,2,2,3,4,4,5,6,6}
P(3) = 1/9, P(6) = 2/9 and P(5) = 1/9
Solution (a)
The sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. We assign a probability of w to each odd number and a probability of 2w to
each even number. Since the sum of the probabilities must be 1, we have 9w = 1 or w = 1/9. Hence, probabilities of 1/9 and 2/9
are assigned to each odd and even number, respectively. Therefore,
1 2 1 4
E = {1, 2, 3} and P(E) = 9 + 9 + 9 = 9

Solution (b)
For the events A = {2, 4, 6} and B = {3, 6}, we have
A ∪ B = {2, 3, 4, 6} and A ∩ B = {6}.
By assigning a probability of 1/9 to each odd number and 2/9 to each even number,
we have
2 1 2 2 7 2
P(A ∪ B) = 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 = 9 and P(A ∩ B) = 9
2 Probability (6)

Section C 6/10/21 5/10/21 Sec B

4. Complementation Rule
If the probability of an event or the probability of its complement is known, then the other can be found by
subtracting the probability from 1.

i.e. P(A) = 1  P(A)
The sum of the probabilities of complementary events equals 1. That is

i.e. P(A)+P(A) = 1
from previous example,
Event C that the sum of the dots is odd and Event B that the sum of the dots is even
P(C) = 1 – P(C) = 1 – P(B) = 1 – 18/36 = 18/36
Example 8.
If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized country of the world is 1/5 , find the probability that a person
does not live in an industrialized country. (Bluman Example 4.11)
Solution
1 4
P(not living in an industrialized country) = 1  P(living in an industrialized country) = 1 − 5 = 5

Example 9.
Find the errors in each of the following statements:
The probabilities that an automobile salesperson will sell 0, 1, 2, or 3 cars on any given day in February are,
respectively, 0.19, 0.38, 0.29, and 0.15.
The probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.40, and the probability that it will not rain tomorrow is 0.52.
The probabilities that a printer will make 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 or more mistakes in setting a document are,
respectively, 0.19, 0.34, −0.25, 0.43, and 0.29.
On a single draw from a deck of playing cards, the probability of selecting a heart is 1/4, the probability of
selecting a black card is 1/2, and the probability of selecting both a heart and a black card is 1/8.
(Walpole 9th Exercise 2.49)
Example 10.
(1) When a coin is tossed 3 time, find the probability to get at least one head. 3/8 + 3/8 + 1/8
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, THT, TTH, HTT, TTT }
(2) A coin is tossed 4 times find the probability to have at least one head.
S = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH, HHTT, TTHH, HTTH, THHT, HTHT, THTH, HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT },
Required = 4/16 + 6/16 + 4/16 + 1/16 = 15/16
When we have 1 head, this may appear in 4C1 , when we have 2 heads to discuss, they may appear in 4C2 = 6, when we
discuss 3 heads to discuss, they are in 4C3 , finally 4 heads may appear in 4C4 possible ways

P(A) = P(at least one head) = 1  P(A) = 1  P(no head) = 1  1/16 = 15/16
Example 11.
A fair coin is tossed 10 times and the up face is recorded after each toss. What is the probability of getting
at least one head.
We may have 0 head, or 1 head, or 2 heads, 3 heads, … , 10 heads
Solution
Since we know the probability of the complement of A, we use the relationship
for the complementary events:
 1 1 1023
P(A) = 1 – P(A) = 1 – P(no head) = 1  210 = 1 - 1024 = 1024 = 0.999

That is, we are virtually certain of observing at least one head in 10 tosses of the coin.
Example 12.
 2 Probability (7)

There are three alternative roots A, B or C each with probability of being blocked 1/10, 3/5 and 5/9
respectively. What is the probability that I can get to work? (the probability that at least one root is open)
The probability of me not being able to get work is the probability of all three being blocked. So the
probability of me being able to get to work is P(A clear or B clear or C clear)
P(at least one root is open) = 1  P(when all are blocked) = 1 – P(A blocked and B blocked and C blocked)
1 3 5 1 29
= 1 - 10  5  9 = 1 - 30 = 30

S = {BBB, BBN, BNB, NBB, BNN, NBN, NNB, NNN}

Exercise (Kreyszig 10th 24.3)
In rolling 3 fair dice, what is the probability of obtaining a sum n(S) = 6 3 = 216
a) not greater than 6?
b) Sum is greater than 6?
Sol. Here possible sums are 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, … , 18
There are 216 total possible cases when 3 dice are rolled. Let X denotes the sum; then
Corresponding triplet are:
For sum = 3 (1,1,1), therefore P[X=3] = 1/216
For sum = 4 (1,1,2), (1,2,1), (2,1,1,), Therefore P[X=4] = 3/216
For sum = 5 (1,2,2), (2,1,2), (2,2,1), (1,1,3), (1,3,1), (3,1,1,) , therefore P[X = 5] = 6/216
and For sum = 6 (2,2,2),(1,2,3),(1,3,2),(2,1,3),(2,3,1),(3,1,2),(3,2,1),(1,1,4),(1,4,1),(4,1,1)
therefore P[X = 6] = 10/216
Hence total required probability = 1/216 + 3/216 + 6/216 + 10/216 = 20/216 = 5/54
c) What is the probability of obtaining at least one head in tossing six fair coins?
Sol. total possible cases = 26 = 64
Event A that at least one head is obtained
So Ac is the event of obtaining no head
As P(A) + P(Ac) = 1
P(A) = 1 – P(Ac) = 1 - P(no head)
Now Ac = {TTTTTT} that all six outcomes are tails, Therefore P(Ac) = 1/64
Hence P(A) = 1 – 1/64 = 63/64
Alternative example:
4 coins are tossed
S = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH, HHTT, TTHH, HTHT, THTH, THHT, HTTH, HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT}
P(at least one head) = P(one head) + P(two heads) + P(3 heads) + P(4 heads)
= 4 (1/2) (1/2)3 + 6 (1/2)2 (1/2)2 + 4 (1/2)3 (1/2) + (1/2)4 = 15/16
= 4C1 (1/2) (1/2)3 + 4C2 (1/2)2 (1/2)2 + 4C3 (1/2)3 (1/2) + (1/2)4 =

= 1  P(no head) = 1  P(all tails) = 1  1/16 = 15/16

d) In rolling two fair dice. What is the probability of obtaining a sum greater than 10 or a sum
divisible by 6?
Sol. Two fair dice are rolled, n(S) = 36
Event A that sum is greater than 10 and event B is that sum divisible by 6
n(A) = 3, n(B) = 6 and n(AB) = 1
so P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB) = 3/36 + 6/36 – 1/36 = 8/36 = 2/9
e) If a box contains 10 left handed screws and 20 right handed screws, what is the probability
of obtaining at least one right handed screw in drawing 2 screws (i) with replacement (ii)
without replacement.
f) Three screws are drawn at random from a lot of 100 screws. 10 of which are defective. Find
the probability of the event that all 3 screws drawn are non defective, assuming that we
draw (a) with replacement (b) without replacement.
Sol. Defective = 10, good = 90 and total = 100
Experiment : 3 are drawn
with replacement
required probability = 90/100 × 90/100 × 90/100
= (0.9)3 = 72.9%
without replacement
required probability = 90/100 × 89/99 × 88/98 = 72.65%
g) Three boxes contain five chips each, numbered from 1 to 5 and one chip is drawn from each box. Find the probability of the
event E that the sum of the numbers on the drawn chips is greater than 4.
Sol. Box I = {1,2,3,4,5}, Box II = {1,2,3,4,5} and
 2 Probability (8)

Box III = {1,2,3,4,5}

one number is drawn from each box, so total possible drawl
= (5)3 = 125
event E that the sum of the numbers is greater than 4
so Ec = {(1,1,1), (1,1,2), (1,2,1), (2,1,1)}
therefore P(Ec) = 4/125
 P(E) = 1 – 4/125 = 121/125
h) A batch of 100 iron rods consists of 25 oversized rods, 25 undersized rods, and 50 rods of the desired length. If two rods are
drawn at random without replacement, what is the probability of obtaining (a) two rods of the desired length (b) one of the
desired length (c) none of the desired length (d) two undersized rods.
Sol. oversized = 25, undersized = 25, desired length = 50, total = 100
Experiment : two are drawn without replacement
50 49
(a) P(2 are of desired length) = 100  99 = 0.2474
This is the case of without replacement
50 50
(b) P(1 is of desired length) = 2100 99 = 0.505
Actually these are the two either or cases (i) 1st of desired length and 2nd is not of desired
length (ii) 1st is not of desired length and 2nd of desired length
50 49
(c) P(no of desired length) = 100  99 = 0.2474
25 24
(d) P(2 are undersized) = 100  99 = 0.0606
i) A batch of 100 iron rods consists of 50 oversized rods, 50 undersized rods, and 100 rods of the desired length. If two rods are
drawn at random without replacement, what is the probability of obtaining (a) two rods of the desired length (b) exactly one of
the desired length (c) none of the desired length.
(7) If a certain kind of tire has a life exceeding 40,000 miles with probability 0.90. What is the probability that in a set of
these tires on a car last longer than 40,000 miles?
S = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH, HHTT, TTHH, HTHT, THTH, THHT, HTTH, HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT}
(i) P(one tyre will have a life time of more than 40000 miles) = 4C1  (0.90)(0.10) (0.10) (0.10) ans
(ii) P(two tyres will have a life time of more than 40000 miles) = 4C2 (0.90)  (0.90) (0.10)(0.10)
(iii) P(at least one will have a life time of more than 40000 miles) = 1  p(no tyre having) = 1  P(all 4 not having) =
= 1  0.10  0.10 0.10 0.10
(iv) P(at most one tyres will have a life time of more than 40000 miles) = P(no one having) + P(one is having) =
= (0.10) 4 + 4(0.90)  (0.10)3
(v) P(all the tyres will have a life time) = (0.90)4
(vI) P(no tyre have a life time more than 40000 miles ) = (0.10)(0.10) (0.10) (0.10) = (0.10)4
Sol. p = 0.95, i.e. the probability of a tire having life exceeding 25000 miles
P(a set of 4) = (0.90)( 0.90)( 0.90)( 0.90) = (0.90)4
If a certain kind of tire has a life exceeding 25000 miles with probability 0.95. What is the probability that at
least one of the tires will last for 25000 miles?
Sol. Probability that a tire has life exceeding 25000 miles = 0.95
Let A be the event that
P(no tire has a life exceeding 25000 miles) = (0.05) 4
therefore P(at least one) = 1  (0.05)4
(11) If we inspect sheets of paper by drawing 3 sheets with replacement from every lot of 100 sheets, what is the
probability of getting 3 clean sheets although 8% of the sheets contain impurities?
Sol. p = 0.92, the probability of a sheet to contain purity; P(3 clean sheets) = (0.92) 3
Additive Law for not Mutually Exclusive Events
The probability of the union of events A and B is the sum of the probabilities of events A and B minus the probability
of the intersection of events A and B, i.e.
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)  P(AB)
Example 13.
An automobile manufacturer is concerned about a possible recall of its best-selling four-door sedan. If there were a
recall, there is 0.25 probability that a defect is in the brake system, 0.18 in the transmission, 0.17 in the fuel system, and 0.40 in
some other area. What is the probability that the defect is the brakes or the fueling system if the probability of defects in both
systems simultaneously is 0.15?
2 Probability (9)

Solution
Let A be the event that a defect is in the brakes, B be the event that defect is in the transmission and C be the event
that defect is in fuel system.
P(BF) = P(B)+P(F)P(BF) = 0.25 + 0.17  0.15 = 0.27

Find the probability that on a single draw from a pack of playing cards we draw a spade
or a face card or both.
A fair dice is rolled once. You win Rs.5/- if the outcome is either even or divisible by 3.
What is the probability of winning the game?
A customer enters a food store. The probability that the customer buys (a) bread is 0.60
(b) milk is 0.50 and (c) both bread and milk is 0.30. What is the probability that the
customer would by either bread or milk or both?
(5) Addition Law for Three Events
The probability rules can be extended to three or more events. For three mutually exclusive events A, B, and C, the
probability that A occurs or B occurs or C occurs is the probability P(A  B  C) defined as:
P(ABC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
For three events that are not mutually exclusive,
P(ABC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(A  B) − P(A  C) − P(B  C) + P(A  B  C)

Example 14.
A card is drawn from a deck of ordinary playing cards. What is the probability that it is a diamond, a face card or a king?
Solution
Let A = the card drawn is diamond
B = the card drawn is a face card
and C = the card drawn is a king.
Then we need
P(ABC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(AB) – P(BC) – P(AC) + P(ABC)
13 12 4
Now P(A) = 52 , P(B) = 52 , P(C) = 52

13 3 3
P(AB) = P(A) P(B/A) = 52  13 = 52

12 4 4
P(BC) = P(B) P(C/B) = 52  12 = 52

13 1 1
P(AC) = P(A) P(C/A) = 52  13 = 52

13 3 1 1
P(ABC) = P(A) P(B/A) P(C/AB) = 52  13  3= 52

Hence we get
13 12 4 3 4 1 1 22
P(ABC) = 52 + 52 + 52 - 52 - 52 - 52 + 52 = 52 = 0.423

4/10/21 Sec D Automotive

Exercise 1.
A survey has been taken on methods of computer travel. Each respondent was asked to check BUS, TRAIN or
AUTOMOBILE as a major method of traveling to work. More than one answer was permitted. The results reported were as
follows: BUS 30 people, TRAIN 35 people, AUTOMOBILE 100 people, BUS and TRAIN 15 people, BUS and AUTOMOBILE 15
people, TRAIN and AUTOMOBILE 20 people and all three methods 5 people. How many people completed a survey form.
2 Probability (10)

n(BTA) = ?
n(BTA) = n(B) + n(T) + n(A) – n(BT)  n(BA)  n(TA) + n(BTA)
= 30 + 35 + 100  15  15  20 + 5 = 120
(ii) n(people using exactly one source of travelling ) = ?
Example 15.
A survey of 500 television watchers produced the following information: 285 watch football games, 195 watch hockey
games, 115 watch basketball games, 45 watch football and basketball games, 70 watch football and hockey games, 50 watch
hockey and basketball games, and 50 do not watch any of the three kinds of the games.
a) How many people in the survey watch all three kinds of games?
b) How many people watch exactly one of the games?
Source:- Chapter 1, Sec. 1.2 Book: “Discrete Mathematical Structures” by Bernard Kolman, Prentice Hall.

Solution (a) n(FHB) = n(F) + n(H) + n(B) – n(FH)  n(FB)  n(HB) + n(FHB)
 n(FHB) = n(FHB)  n(F)  n(H)  n(B) + n(FH) + n(FB) + n(HB)
= 450  285  195  115 + 70 + 45 + 50 = 20
Section A and C date 13/10/21
6. Conditional Probability
A
Now if we say that the event B had already taken place and we consider the probability of A. We denote it as P( B ) ,
called the conditional probability of A and is given by
A P(AB)
P(A/B) = P(A|B) = P(B) = P(B)

i.e. Find the probability of A given that the event B occurs first.
OR Find the probability of A whenever the event B occurs first
Or if the event B occurs first , then find the probability of A
A
We write our requirement as P(B) , P(A/B) , or P(A|B)
Simply we read it as the probability of A given B
Activity : 2 dice are rolled
event B : that the sum is even and Event D : that the sum is divisible by 4
If the event B is performed first, then find the probability of D
Find the probability of event D, if the event B is performed first
Find the probability of the event D given that the event B is performed first
Find the probability that the sum is divisible by 4 given that the sum is even
Find the probability that the sum is divisible by 4 whenever the sum is even
All the statements are equivalent
P(DB) 9/36 9 1
P(D/B) = P(B) = 18/36 = 18 = 2
We read P(D/B) as the probability of D given B
P(D) = 9/36 = ¼, P(B) = 18/36 these are called the marginal probabilities of D and B respectively
Sec B 11/10/21
Example 16.
The concept of conditional probability has countless applications in both industrial and biomedical applications.
Consider an industrial process in the textile industry in which strips of a particular type of cloth are being produced. These strips
can be defective in two ways, length and nature of texture. For the case of the latter, the process of identification is very
complicated. It is known from historical information on the process that 10% of strips fail the length test, 5% fail the texture
test, and only 0.8% fail both tests. If a strip is selected randomly from the process and a quick measurement identifies it was
failing the length test, what is the probability that it is texture defective?
Example 2.35 Page 60 Book:- “Probability and Statistics for Engineers” by Walpole 9 th Ed.
Solution
Consider the events: L : length defective, and T : texture defective
2 Probability (11)

0.8
P(L) = 0.10, P(T) = 0.05 , P(T L) = 100 = 0.008

Thus, given that the strip is length defective:, the probability that this strip is texture defective is given by
P(TL) 0.008
P(T / L) = P(L) = 0.1 = 0.08

(iii) If the strip fails texture test, what is the probability that it is failing length
P(TL) 0.008
P(L/T) = P(T) = 0.05 = ?

Thus, the knowledge given by the conditional probability provides considerably more information than merely
knowing P{T).

The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P(D) = 0 83; the probability that it arrives on time is
P(A) = 082; and the probability that it departs and arrives on time is P(D  A) = 0.78. Find the probability that a plane
arrives on time, given that it departed on time, and
departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.
(Example 2.34 Page 60 Book:- “Probability and Statistics for Engineers” by Walpole 9th Ed.)
Example 17.
A man tosses two fair dice. What is the conditional probability that the sum of two dice will be 7, given that,(i) the
sum is odd,(ii) the sum is greater than 6,(iii) the two dice had the same out come?
Solution
The sample space S for this experiment consists of the following 36 equally likely out comes;
S = { (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6),
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6),
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6) }
Let A = {the sum is 7},
B = {the sum is odd}
C = {the sum is greater than 6}, and
D = {the two dice had the same outcomes}.
Then
A = {(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)},
B = {(1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,4), (3,6), (4,1),
(4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,4), (5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5)},
C = {(1,6), (2,5), (2,6), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6), (5,2),
(5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)},
D = {(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)},
AB = {(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)},
AC = {(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)},
AD = 
3 18 21 6
So, P(A) = 36 , P(B) = 36 , P(C) = 36 , P(D) = 36

6 6
P(AB) =36 , P(AC) = 36 , P(AD) = 0

Hence using the definition of conditional probability, we get

P(AB) 3 36 1
P(A/B) = P(B) = 36 18 = 3

i.e. the probability of A if event B occurs first

i.e. the probability to have sum divisible by 4 if the sum of the dots is even
 2 Probability (12)

P(AC) 3 36 2
P(A/C) = P(C) = 36  21 = 7

P(AD) 36
P(A/D) = P(D) = 0  3 = 0

7. Multiplication Law for Probability (General Rule)

If A and be any two events defined in a sample space S, then
P(AB) = P(A) P(B/A), provided P(A)  0
= P(B) P(A/B), provided P(B)  0
The conditional probability of B given A has occurred is
P(AB)
P(B/A) = P(A) , provided P(A)  0

by multiplying both sides with P(A), we get

P(AB) = P(A) P(B/A)
This is called the general rule of multiplication for probabilities.
Example 18.
If we randomly pick two television sets in succession without replacement from a shipment of 240 television sets of
which 15 are defective, what is the probability that they will be both defective?
We are available 15 Defective items + 225 good items = 240
Case (A) without replacement
15 14 15C2  225C0
(i) P(both defective) = 240  239 = 240C
2

225 224 15C0  225C2

May be (ii) P(none is defective) = 240  239 = 240C
2
first, may
be 2nd (iii) P(one is defective) = P(exactly one is defective) = P(either 1 st is defective) + P(or the 2nd is defective)
1
15C 225C 15 225 225 15
1
= 240C = 240  239 + 240  239
2

(iv) P(2nd is defective) = P(1st not defective and 2nd defective) + P(1st defective and 2nd defective)
225 15 15 14
= 240  239 + 240  239

(v) P(at least one is defective) = P(one defective) + P(both defective)

(vi) P(at most one is good) = P(no defective) + P(one defective)
Case (B) if the selection is with replacement
15 15
(i) P(both defective) = 240  240 =

225 225
(ii) P(none is defective) = 240  240 =

(iii) P(one is defective) = P(exactly one is defective) = P(either 1 st is defective) + P(or the 2nd is defective)
15 225 225 15
= 240  240 + 240  240

(iv) P(2nd is defective) = P(1st not defective and 2nd defective) + P(1st defective and 2nd defective)
225 15 15 15
= 240  240 + 240  240

(v) P(at least one is defective) = P(one defective) + P(both defective)

(vi) P(at most one is good) = P(no defective) + P(one defective)

Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are defective. If 2 fuses are selected at random and
removed from the box in succession without replacing the first, what is the probability that both fuses are defective?
(Example 2.36 Page 60 Book:- “Probability and Statistics for Engineers” by Walpole 9th Ed.)
2 Probability (13)

World Wide Insurance Company found that 53% of the residents of a city had homeowner’s insurance (H) with the
company. Of these clients, 27% also had automobile insurance (A) with the company. If a resident is selected at random, find
the probability that the resident has both homeowner’s and automobile insurance with World Wide Insurance Company.
Reference :- Example 4.29 Book: “Elementary Statistics” by Bluman And if there is 30%
Solution probability that
residents has both
P(H and A) = P(H  A) = P(H)  P(A/H) = (0.53)  (0.27) = 0.1431 house and
Example 19. automobile then find
same.
A box contains 15 items, 4 of which are defective and 11 are good. Two items are selected. What is the probability
that the first is good and second is defective? When nothing is mention always go for
Solution without replacement
Let A denotes the event that the first item selected is good and B, the event that the
second item is defective. Then we need to calculate the probability P(AB) = P(A).P(B/A)
11
Now P(A) = 15

Given the event A has occurred, there remains 14 items of which 4 are defective. Therefore the probability of
selecting the defective after a good has been selected,
4
i.e. P(A/B) = 14

11 4 44
Hence P(AB) = P(A).P(B/A) = 15  14 = 210 = 0.16

Example 20.
Two cards are dealt from a pack of ordinary playing cards. Find the probability that the second card dealt is a heart?
Solution
Let H1 represents the event that the first card dealt is a heart, and H2, the event that the
First maybe heart or non heart
second card dealt is a heart. Then but 2nd must be heart
P(the second card is a heart) = P(the first card is a heart and the second card is a heart)
+ P(the first card is not a heart and the second card is a heart)
_
i.e. P(H2) = P(H1H2) + P(H1H2)
13 12 39 13 1 13 17 1
P(H2) = 52  51 + 52  51 = 17 + 68 = 68 = 4 2nd is heart and
    1st is non heart
Exercise
A box of fuses contains 20 fuses, of which 5 are defective. If 3 of the fuses are selected at random and removed from
the box in succession without replacement, what is the probability that all three fuses are defective?
Sec D 11/10/21
9. Independent Events
Events A and B are independent if the occurrence of B does not alter the probability that A has occurred, i.e., events A
and B are independent if
P(A/B) = P(A)
When events A and B are independent it will also be true that
P(B/A) = P(B)
Events that are not independent are said to be dependent.
Multiplication Law
P(AB) = P(A)  P(B/A)
For dependent events
P(AB) = P(B)  P(A/B)

Multiplication Law Independent Events

Frequently the nature of an experiment suggests that two events A and B should be assumed independent. This is the
case, for example, if a manufacturer receives a circuit board from each of two different suppliers, each board is tested on arrival,
2 Probability (14)

and A¼{first is defective} and B¼{second is defective}. If P(A) = 0.1, it should also be the case that P(A|B)¼.1; knowing the
condition of the second board shouldn’t provide information about the condition of the first. So we compute P(A  B) when the
events are independent as
P(AB) = P(A)  P(B) Independent events
P(AB) = P(B)  P(A)

An electrical system consists of four components as illustrated in Figure 2.9. The system works if components and
work and either of the components or works. The reliability (probability of working) of each component is also shown in
Figure 2.9. Find the probability that (a) the entire system works and (b) the component does not work, given that the entire
system works. Assume that the four components work independently.

(Solved Example 2.39 Page 60 Book:- “Probability and Statistics for Engineers” by Walpole 9 th Ed.)
Example
Two cards is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards. Find the probability of getting. (Bluman Example 4.7)

Obviously this is the case of without replacement

If we denote event H1 that first card is a heart and event H2 that the second is a heart
2
13C 39C
0
Both hearts (all are heart); P(H1  H2) = P(H1)  P(H2/ H1) = 13/52  12/51 or 52C
2

1
13C 39C
  1
One heart (or exactly one heart) P(H1  H2 ) + P(H1  H2) = 13/52  39/51 + 39/52  13/51 or 52C
2

None of the heart 39/52  38/51

At least one is heart {i.e. either one is heart or both are heart this means P(HN) + P(NH) + P(HH) }
At most one is heart. ( i.e. P(one heart) + P(no heart) = P(HN) + P(NH) + P(NN) )

Example 21. (application problem)

Two natural events can result in the failure of a dam in an earthquake-prone area. Firstly, a very high flood, exceeding
the design capability of its spillway, say, event A, may destroy it. Secondly, a destructive earthquake can cause a structural
collapse, say, event B. Hydrological and seismological consultants estimate that the probability measures characterizing flood
exceedance and earthquake occurrence on a yearly basis are P[A] = 0.02 and P[B] = 0.01, respectively. The occurrence of one or
both events can result in the failure of the dam. If the two events are statistically independent, then the risk of failure in a year
is
P[A  B] = P[A] + P[B]  P[AB] = P[A] + P[B]  P[A] P[B] = 0.02 + 0.01 − 0.02  0.01 = 0.0298.
Example 22.
Let A be the event a family has at most one boy
And B be the event that a family has children of both sex
(i) If a family is known to have 3 children , then A and B are independent
(ii) If a family is known to have 4 children , then A and B are dependent
Solution (i)
S = { ggg, ggb, gbg, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg, bbb }
Event A = { ggg, ggb, gbg, bgg }, Event B = { ggb, gbg, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg } , AB = { ggb, gbg, bgg }
P(A) = 4/8 = ½ , P(B) = 6/8 = ¾ and P(AB) = 3/8
P(AB) 3/8
P(A/B) = P(B) = 6/8 = ½
P(AB) 3/8
P(B/A) = P(A) = 4/8 = ¾
2 Probability (15)

As P(A/B) = P(A) = ½
Also P(B/A) = P(B) = ¾
Hence the events are independent
Part (ii)
Check part (Ii) yourself as an exercise
Example 23.
Consider an experiment of tossing a fair coin twice and recording the up face on each toss. The following events are
defined:
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} Second maybe head or tail
A: {first toss is a head}
1st maybe head or tail
B: {second toss is a head}
Does knowing that event A has occurred affect the probability that B will occur?
Solution
Intuitively the answer should be no, since what occurs on the first toss should in no way affect what occurs on the
second toss. The sample space for this experiment is:
S = {HH, TH, HT, TT} and A = { HH, HT}, B = { HH, TH}
Each of these simple events has a probability of ¼. Thus,
P(B) = P(HH) + P(TH) = ¼ + ¼ = ½
and P(A) = P(HH) + P(HT) = ¼ + ¼ = ½
Now, what is P(B/A)?
P(AB) P(HH) 1/4 1
P(B/A) = P(A) = P(A) = 1/2 = 2 = P(B)

We can now see that P(B) = ½. Knowing that the first resulted in a head does not affect the probability that the
second toss will be a head. Hence the two events A and B are independent.

Example 24.
Consider the experiment of tossing a fair die and define the following events
A = {observe an even number}
B = {observe a number less than or equal to 4}
Are events A and B are independent?
Solution
We first calculate
P(A)= P(2) + P(4) + P(6) = ½
P(B)= P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = 4/6 = 2/3
P(AB) = P(2) + P(4) = 2/6 = 1/3
Now assume that B has occurred, the conditional probability of A given B is
(AB) 1/3
P(A/B) = P(B) = 2/3 = ½ = P(A)

Therefore the events A and B are independent.

Note that if we calculate the conditional probability of B given A, our conclusion is the same:
(AB) 1/3
P(B/A) = P(A) = 1/2 = 2/3 = P(B)

Example 25.
The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P(D) = 0.83; the probability that it arrives on time is
P(A) = 0.82; and the probability that it departs and arrives on time is P(D ∩A) = 0.78. Find the probability that a plane (a) arrives
on time, given that it departed on time, and (b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on time. (Walpole 9th Example 2.34, Page 63)
Solution
P(DA) 0.78
P(flight arrives on time, given that it departed on time) = P(A/D) = P(D) = 0.83 = 0.94
2 Probability (16)

P(DA) 0.78
P(flight departed on time, given that it arrived on time) = P(D/A) = P(A) = 0.82 = 0.95
Reference: “Theory of probability and Statistics” by Sher Muhammad Ch and Shehzad Ahmad.

Example 26.
It is known that 30% of a certain company’s washing machines require service while under warranty, whereas only
10% of its dryers need such service. If someone purchases both a washer and a dryer made by this company, what is the
probability that both machines need warranty service? What is the probability that neither machine needs service?
Solution
P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B) = 0.30  0.10 = 0.03 Cram the way to solve
P(AB) 0.03
P(A/B) = P(B) = 0.10 = 0.30 = P(A)

P(AB) 0.03
P(B/A) = P(A) = 0.30 = 0.10 = P(B)

Hence A and B are independent

First we calculate P[AB] = P[A] + P[B]  P[AB] = 0.30 + 0.10  0.03 = 0.37
P(Ac  Bc) = P[(AB)c] = 1  (AB) = 1  0.37 = 0.63
We can also calculate this directly by multiplying the respective probabilities of the complements.
P(Ac  Bc) = P(Ac)  P(Bc) = 0.70  0.90 = 0.63
Example 27.
_ _
Given P(A) = 0.60, P(B) = 0.40, P(AB) = 0.24, find P(A/B), P(AB), P(A/B), P(B/A), P(B). What is the relation between A and B?
Solution
Given P(A) = 0.60, P(B) = 0.40, and P(AB) = 0.24. Then
P(AB) 0.24
P(A/B) = P(B) = 0.40 = 0.60

P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB) = 0.60 + 0.40 – 2024 = 0.76

_
_ P(AB ) P(A) - P(AB) 0.60 - 0.24 0.36 _
P(A/B) = _ = 1 - P(B) = 1 - 0.4 0.60 = 0.60 because AB = A  AB
P(B)
P(BA) 0.24
P(B/A) = P(A) = 0.60 = 0.40

_
P(B) = 1 – P(B) = 1 – 0.40 = 0.60
The event A and B are independent as
P(A/B) = 0.60 = P(A)
P(B/A) = 0.40 = P(B)
and P(AB) = 0.24 = (0.60) (0.40) = P(A) P(B)

Example 28.
Let A and B be two events associated with an experiment. Suppose that
P(A) = 0.5 and P(AB) = 0.6. Find P(B) if
(i) A and B mutually exclusive?
(ii) A and B independent?
(iii) P(A/B) = 0.4
Solution
when A and B are mutually exclusive, then
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)
i.e. 0.60 = 0.50 + P(B)
 P(B) = 0.10
2 Probability (17)

(ii) When A and B are independent, we have

P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A) P(B) (because P(AB) = P(A) P(B) )
= P(A) + P(B) [1 – P(A)]
or 0.60 = 0.50 + P(B) [1 – 0.50]
or 0.10 = 0.5 P(B)
or P(B) = 0.20
P(AB) P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)
(iii) P(A/B) = P(B) = P(B) because P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)  P(AB)

0.50 + P(B) - 0.60

or 0.40 = P(B)
or 0.40P(B) = P(B) – 0.10
or 0.10 = 0.60 P(B)
 P(B) = 1/6 = 0.17
Example 29.
In a study involving a manufacturing process, the probability was 0.10 that a part tested was defective and a
probability that a part was produced on machine A was 0.30. Given that a part was produced on machine A, there is 0.15
probability that it is defective.
What is the probability that a part tested is both defective and produced by machine A?
If a part is found to be defective, what is the probability that it came from machine A?
Is finding a defective part independent of its being produced on machine A? Explain.
What is the probability of the part being either defective or produced by machine A?
Are the events “a defective part” and “produced by machine A” mutually exclusive events? Explain.
Ref.: “Statistics for Management” by R I Levin and D S Rubin
Hints:
Define the events; D: a part tested is defective, E: a part is produced by machine A
Given information: P(D) = 0.10, P(E) = 0.30, P(D/E) = 0.15
Find P(DE), P(E/D). Check P(D/E) = P(D) and P(E/D) = P(E). Also check P(DE)
For mutually exclusive, check P(DE) = 0
Exercises

Bayes Theorem and Application

Bayes’ rule demonstrates one way that probability can be used to make statistical inferences while traditional
methods of statistical inference use probability in a slightly different way.
Discussion 1
2 Probability (18)

Let we are available two boxed; Box A containing 3 red and 5 black balls and Box B containing 4 red and 6 black balls
and Box C containing 2 red and 4 black balls. We select a box and draw a ball from there.
What is the probability that it is red.
P(R) = 1/3  3/8 + 1/3  4/10 + 1/3  2/6 = ?
= P(A)  P(R/A) + P(B)  P(R/B) + P( C )  P(R/C)
= P(AR) + P(BR) + P(C  R)
= P[(AR)  (BR)  (CR)]
= P[(ABC)R] due to distributive law
i.e. R = (ABC)R
If the ball drawn is red, what is the probability that it is coming from box A (or box A was selected )
P(AR) 1/33/8
P(A/R) = P(R) =
1/33/8 + 1/34/10 + 1/3 2/6

Discussion 2
Bayes method can be applied when sample information E may have been produced by any one of k mutually exclusive
states of nature (or population), A1 ,A2, … ,Ak.
Section A Section B Section C Section D
Boys 45 boys 40 boys 30 boys 50
Girls 5 girls 8 girls 10 girls 12
Activity : first select a section then select a student from that class
Find the probability that this student is a girl
If the selected student is a girl, what is the probability that she is from section A
P(G) = ¼  5/50 + ¼  8/48 + ¼  10/40 + ¼  12/62 called the law of total probability
= P(A)  P(G/A) + P(B)  P(G/B) + P(C)  P(G/C) + P(D)  P(G/D) Or Law of Elimination
P(G) = P(AG) + P(BG) + P(CG) + P(DG)
Actually G = (AG)  (BG)  (CG)  (DG)
(i) If the selected student is a girl, what is the probability that she is from section A
P(AG) ¼  5/50
P(A/G) = P(G) = ¼  5/50 + ¼  8/48 + ¼  10/40 + ¼  12/62
i.e. probability of section A whenever/ given that / if a girl is selected
P(D/G) = Probability of section D if the selected student is a girl
Example 30.
A construction company employs three sales engineers. Engineer 1, 2 and 3 estimate the cost of 30%, 20% and 50%
respectively, of all jobs bid by the company. For j = 1, 2, 3, define Aj to be the event that a cost is estimated by Engineer j and
define E to be the event that a serious error is made in estimating the cost. The following probabilities are known to describe
the error rates of the engineers:
P(E/A1) = 1% = 0.01 P(A1) = 30% = 0.30
P(E/A2) = 3% = 0.03 P(A2) = 20% = 0.20
P(E/A3) = 2% = 0.02 P(A3) = 50% = 0.50
What is the probability of this serious error?
E = (A1E)  (A2E )  (A3 E)
P(E) = P[(A1E)  (A2E )  (A3 E)]
= P(A1E) + P(A2E ) + P(A3 E)
P( E) = P(A1)  P(E/A1) + P(A2)  P(E/A2) + P(A3)  P(E/A3)
= 0.30  0.01 + 0.20  0.03 + 0.50  0.20
This is called Elimination Rule, or the Law of Total Probability
(ii) if a serious error is made, what is the probability that it is done by engineer 1
P(A1 E) 0.30  0.01
P(A1 /E) = P(E) = 0.30  0.01 + 0.20  0.03 + 0.50  0.20) = ?
2 Probability (19)

P(A2 E) 0.20  0.03

P(A2 /E) = P(E) = 0.30  0.01 + 0.20  0.03 + 0.50  0.20) = ?

P(A3 E) 0.50  0.20

P(A3 /E) = P(E) = 0.30  0.01 + 0.20  0.03 + 0.50  0.20) = ?

Example 31.
Three urns of the same appearance have the following proportions of white and black balls:
Urn A: 1 white, 2 black balls.
Urn B: 2 white, 1 black ball.
Urn C: 2 white, 2 black balls.
One of the urns is selected and a ball is drawn from it.
(i) what is the probability that it is white.
(ii) What is the probability that urn C was chosen if the ball drawn is white?
1 1 1 2 1 2
P(W) = 3  3 + 3  3 + 3  4

= P(A)  P(W/A) + P(B)  P(W/B) + P(C)  P(W/C)

= P(AW) + P(BW) + P(CW)
W = (AW)  (BW)  (CW)

P(CW)
P(C/W) = P(W)

P(CW)
=
P(A)  P(W/A) + P(B)  P(W/B) + P(C)  P(W/C)
P(C)  P(W/C)
=
P(A)  P(W/A) + P(B)  P(W/B) + P(C)  P(W/C)
1 2
3 4
= 1 1 1 2 1 2
33 + 3  3 + 3 4

Solution:
The probability of selecting an Urn is 1/3.
1
i.e. P(A) = P(B) = P(C) = 3

Let E be the event that ball selected is white. Then

1 2 2
P(E/A) = 3, P(E/B) = 3 and P(E/C) = 4

By Bayes’ Theorem, we have

P(C) P(E/C)
P(C/E) = P(A) P(E/A) + P(B) P(E/B) + P(C) P(E/C)

1 2 2 2
3.4 12 12 1
= 1 1 1 2 1 2= = =
1 2 1 1 3
3.3+3.3+3.4 9+9+6 2

Example 32.
1
There are three coins, identical in appearance, one of which is ideal and the other two biased with probabilities 3 and
2
3 respectively for a head. One coin is taken at random and tossed twice. If head appears both the times, what is the probability
that the ideal coin was tossed?
2 Probability (20)

Solution
Let A1 denotes the event that the ideal coin is selected.
A2 denotes the event that the 2nd coin is selected.
A3 denotes the event that the 3rd coin is selected.
1
Then P(A) = P(B) = P(C) = 3

Again, let E denote the event that head appears both the times when the coin is tossed twice. Then P(E/A1) =
1 1 1
2.2=4
1 1 1
P(E/A2) = 3 . 3 = 9 and

2 2 4
P(E/A3) = 3 . 3 = 9

Hence be Bayes’ theorem, the desired probability is

P(Aj) P(E/Aj)
P(Aj/E) =  P(A ) P(E/A ) j = 1, 2, 3
j j

1 1
3.4 1/12 1 108 9
= = 29/108 = 12  29 = 29
1 1 1 1 1 4
3.4+3.9+3.9

Exercises
(1) In a certain college, 4% of the men and 1% of the women are taller than 6 feet. Further more, 60% of the
students are the women. Now if a student is selected at random and is taller than 6 feet, what is the
probability that the student is a woman?
(2) Three cooks A, B and C, bake a special kind of cake, and with respective probabilities 0.02, 0.03, and 0.05 it
fails to rise. In the restaurant where they work, A bakes 50 % of these cakes, B 30 % and C 20 %. What
proportion of ‘failures’ does A cause?
P(F) = P(A)  P(F/A) + P(B)  P(F/B) + P(C)  P(F/C)
(3) The stock of a warehouse consists of boxes of high, medium and low quality light bulbs in respective
proportions: 1 : 2 : 2. The probability of bulbs of three types being unsatisfactory is 0.0, 0.1 and 0.2
respectively. If a box is chosen at random and two bulb in it are tested and found to be satisfactory, what is
the probability that it contains bulbs (1) of high quality, (2) of medium quality, (3) of low quality?
Example 33.
In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, and B3, make 30%, 45%, and 25%, respectively, of the products. It
is known from past experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the products made by each machine, respectively, are defective. Now,
suppose that a finished product is randomly selected. What is the probability that it is defective?
Example 4.41 Page 75 Book:- “Probability and Statistics for Engineers” by Walpole

A paint-store chain produces and sells latex and semigloss paint. Based on long-range sales, the probability that a
customer will purchase latex paint is 0.75. Of those that purchase latex paint, 60% also purchase rollers. But only 30% of
semigloss paint buyers purchase rollers. A randomly selected buyer purchases a roller and a can of paint. What is the
probability that the paint is latex? (Walpole 9th Ed Exercise 2.101)
Exercises
Review Exercises Page 75 Book:- “Probability and Statistics for Engineers” by Walpole
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