2 Probabilities and Random Variables

1. Permutations and Combinations

2. Sample Spaces, Events and Probabilities
3. Conditional Probabilities and Independence
4. Random Variables
5. Discrete Random Variables
6. Continuous Random Variables

Section 2.1 Permutations and Combinations

Example 1 Suppose 4 pictures are to be arranged from left to right on one wall of
an art gallery. How many ordered arrangements are possible?

[Solution] There are 4 ways of selecting the first (leftmost) picture; after the first
picture is selected, there are 3 ways of selecting the second picture; after the two
pictures are selected, there are 2 ways of selecting the third picture; and after the
three pictures are selected, there is only one way to select the fourth. Therefore the
number of ordered arrangements is 4  3  2  1  24.
(In fact, if the 4 pictures are named A, B, C and D respectively, then all the ordered
arrangements are
ABCD, ABDC, ACBD, ACDB, ADBC, ADCB, BACD, BADC, BCAD, BCDA,
BDAC, BDCA, CABD, CADB, CBAD, CBDA, CDAB, CDBA, DABC, DACB,
DBAC, DBCA, DCAB and DCBA.)

Definition A permutation of a set of n (positive integer) distinct objects taken r

(r  1, 2, …, n) at a time without repetition is an arrangement, in a specific order,
of r distinct objects taken out of the set.

Definition For a positive integer n, define n factorial, denoted by n!, to be

n(n  1)(n  2)  21.
Define also zero factorial, denoted by 0!, to be 1.

Theorem 1 The number of permutations of n (positive integer) distinct objects

taken r (r  1, 2, …, n) at a time without repetition is given by
𝑛!
n(n  1)(n  r  1)  (𝑛−𝑟)!
and is denoted by Pn,r, Prn , nPr or P(n, r). (Note that there are r factors on the left
hand side of the previous equality.)

ch2 1
Especially when r  n,
𝑛! 𝑛!
Pn,n  (𝑛−𝑛)!   n!
0!

Example 2 Given a set {A, B, C}, how many permutations are there of this set of
3 objects taken 2 at a time?
[Solution] P3,2  3  2  6,
or
3!
P3,2  (3−2)!  6
(In fact, all the permutations are AB, AC, BA, BC, CA and CB.)

Example 3 Given a set {A, B, C, D}, how many permutations are there of this set
of 4 objects taken 2 at a time?
[Solution] P4,2  4  3  12,
or
4!
P4,2  (4−2)!  12
(In fact, all the permutations are AB, AC, AD, BA, BC, BD, CA, CB, CD, DA, DB
and DC.)

Definition A combination of a set of n (positive integer) distinct objects taken r

(r  1, 2, …, n) at a time without repetition is a selection of r distinct objects out
of the n objects where the order of selection does not matter.

Theorem 2 The number of combinations of n (positive integer) distinct objects

taken r (r  1, 2, …, n) at a time without repetition is given by
𝑛(𝑛−1)(𝑛−2)⋯(𝑛−𝑟+1) 𝑛!
1∙2⋯𝑟
 𝑟!(𝑛−𝑟)!
n n
and is denoted by Cn,r,   , Cr , nCr or C(n, r).
r
(Note that there are r factors in both the numerator and the denominator on the left
hand side of the previous equality.)

Definition For any positive integer n, define Cn,0 to be 1.

Example 4 Given a set {A, B, C}, how many combinations are there of this set of
3 objects taken 2 at a time?

ch2 2
[Solution] C3,2  3  2  (1  2)  3,
or
3!
C3,2   3.
2!(3−2)!
(In fact, all the combinations are AB, AC and BC.)

Example 5 Given a set {A, B, C, D}, how many combinations are there of this set
of 4 objects taken 2 at a time?
[Solution] C4,2  4  3  (1  2)  6,
or
4!
C4,2   6.
2!(4−2)!
(In fact, all the combinations are AB, AC, AD, BC, BD and CD.)

Example 6 Consider a committee of 10 people. In how many ways can we choose

a chairperson, a vice-chairperson and a secretary, assuming that one person cannot
hold more than one position? In how many ways can we choose a subcommittee
of exactly 3 persons?
10∙9∙8
[Solution] Since P10,3  10  9  8  720 and C10,3   120, we can choose a
3∙2∙1
chairperson, a vice-chairperson and a secretary in 720 ways and choose a
subcommittee of 3 persons in 120 ways.

Example 7 From a standard 52-card deck, how many 5-card hands will have 3
aces and 2 kings?
[Solution] The number of ways to choose 3 aces out of 4 is C4,3. For each way to
choose 3 aces out of 4, the number of ways to choose 2 kings out of 4 is C4,2.
Therefore the number of 5-card hands having 3 aces and 2 kings is
4∙3∙2 4∙3
C4,3  C4,2  ∙  24
1∙2∙3 1∙2

Section 2.2 Sample Spaces, Events and Probabilities

Definition

Sample space, S: the set of all outcomes of an experiment such that in each trial
of the experiment exactly one of these outcomes will occur.

Event: a subset of S. (Note that S itself and the empty set  are also subsets of S.)
We say that an event occurs in a trial of the experiment if the outcome actually
occurring in the trial belongs to the event. An event equal to  is an impossible
event because it never occurs.
ch2 3
Event A or B, union of A and B, A  B: the subset of S that consists of all sample
points in either the event A or the event B. “The event A  B occurs” is equivalent
to “either the event A or the event B occurs”.

Event A and B, intersection of A and B, A  B: the subset of S that consists of

all sample points in both the event A and the event B. “The event A  B occurs” is
equivalent to “both the event A and the event B occur”.

Complement of A (relative to S), A', AC: the subset of S that consists of all sample
points not in A. “The event A' occurs” is equivalent to “the event A does not occur”.
If A  B  , we say that A and B are mutually exclusive.

Venn diagrams are useful in visualising event relationships.

Example 1 A coin is tossed twice and we are interested in whether the coin falls
heads (H) or tails (T).
The sample space is S  {HH, HT, TH, TT}.

Let A be the event that the coin falls heads in the first toss. Then A  {HH, HT}.
Let B be the event that the coin falls heads in the second toss. Then B  {HH, TH}.

The event that the coin falls heads at least once is A  B  {HH, HT, TH}.
The event that the coin falls heads twice is A  B  {HH}.
The event that the coin falls tails in the first toss is A'  {TH, TT}.
ch2 4
The two events {HH} and {HT} are mutually exclusive.
The two events {HH} and {HT, TH, TT} are mutually exclusive.

We need a numerical measure, called probability, of the likelihood that an event

will occur.

Definition A probability on a sample space S is a rule producing a

correspondence such that to each event A in the sample space S there corresponds
exactly one non-negative number (denoted by P(A) and called the probability of
the event A), and such that

1. P(S)  1,
2. P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B) if the two events A and B are mutually exclusive,

Theorem
1. P()  0.
2. P(A)  1 for any event A.
3. P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B)  P(A  B) for any events A and B.
4. P(A')  1  P(A) for any event A.

Probability has properties similar to area associated with a Venn diagram.

Example 3 Among the 100 students of a class, 80 play tennis, 43 play basketball
and 35 play both tennis and basketball. If we randomly select a student from the
class (“to randomly select” or “to select at random” implies that each student is
equally likely to be selected), what will be the probability that the student plays
neither tennis nor basketball?
[Solution] Let
T be the event that the student selected plays tennis,
B be the event that the student selected plays basketball.
Then P(T)  80  100, P(B)  43  100 and P(T  B)  35  100.
The probability we want is P(T'  B'), which can be found as

ch2 5
 P(T'  B')  1  P(T  B)
 1  [P(T)  P(B)  P(T  B)]
 1  0.8  0.43  0.35  0.12.

Example 3 The board of regents of a university is made up of 12 men and 16

women. If a committee of 7 is chosen at random from the board, what is the
probability that it will contain at least one man?

[Solution] The event that “the committee contains at least one man” is the union
of 7 events: “the committee contains exactly one man”, “the committee contains
exactly two men”, … and “the committee contains exactly seven men”; while its
complement is “the committee contains no man”.
It is easier to find the probability of one event than to find those of seven. So we
will try to find the probability of “containing no man”.
The number of ways to choose 7 women out of 16 is C16,7. This is the number of
outcomes containing no man.
The number of ways to choose 7 persons out of 28 ( 16  12) is C28,7. This is the
number of all outcomes in the sample space.
Therefore

P(the committee contains at least one man)

 1  P(it contains no man)
 1  C16,7 / C28,7
16∙15∙14∙13∙12∙11∙10 1∙2∙3∙4∙5∙6∙7
 1 ×
1∙2∙3∙4∙5∙6∙7 28∙27∙26∙25∙24∙23∙22
16∙15∙10 2 205
 1 1 
24 ∙27∙25∙23 9∙23 207

ch2 6
Section 2.3 Conditional Probabilities and Independence
Example 1 Suppose we roll a fair dice. Then
S  {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

Define event A to be the event of rolling a prime number

and event B to be the event of odd number turning up.
Then
2
A  {2, 3, 5}, B  {1, 3, 5}, 3
P(A)  3  6  1  2, 1
P(B)  3  6  1  2,
P(A  B)  2  6  1  3. 6 4
5
Now suppose that we are only concerned about odd
numbers. Therefore we let the event B be the new sample space. If we are
interested in the event A, then we will pay our attention to the part of the event A
within the event B (the new sample space) and say that the probability of A given
B is 2  3. Note that this is equal to

2 / 6 P( A  B)

3/ 6 P( B)

Definition If P(B)  0, the (conditional) probability of A given B, denoted by

P(A | B), is defined as
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
P(A  B) 
𝑃(𝐵)

If P(B)  0, P(A  B) is not defined.

ch2 7
Example 2 Each student in a school was identified by his or her hair colour and
then asked whether he or she preferred taking classes in the morning, afternoon or
evening. The results are shown in the table below. Find the probability that a
student selected at random preferred afternoon classes given that he or she has
black hair.

Hair colour
Class time preference
Blonde Black Redhead
Morning 45 20 10
Afternoon 40 15 50
Evening 35 20 30

[Solution]
Let N be total number of students,
B be the event that the student selected at random has black hair,
A be the event that the student selected at random preferred afternoon classes.
Then
P(A  B)  15  N,
P(B)  (20  15  20)  N,

15 3 3
𝑃(𝐴 |𝐵) = = =
20 + 15 + 20 4+3+4 11

Example 3 It is known that 60% of a department store’s customers are female,

and 75% of the female customers have charge accounts at the store, while only
30% of the male customers have charge accounts at the store. What is the
probability that a customer selected at random is a female and has a charge
account? What is the probability that a customer selected at random is a male and
does not have a charge account?

[Solution] Let
F  “the customer selected is female”,
C  “the customer selected has a charge
account”.

P(F)  0.6, P(C  F)  0.75 and P(C  F')  0.3.

ch2 8
Tree diagram

P(F  C) P(F) P(C  F)  0.6 (0.75)  0.45

P(F'  C')  P(F') P(C'  F')

 (1  0.6) (1  0.3)  0.28

Definition For any events A and B, we say that A and B are independent if
P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B)

If A and B are independent and P(B)  0, then

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴) = = 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵)

Therefore we can say that the occurrence of the event B does not affect the
probability of the event A.

Example 4 A single card is drawn randomly from a standard 52-card deck. Test
the following events for independence.
(a) E is the event that the drawn card is a spade and F is the event that the drawn
card is a face card (jack, queen or king).
(b) D is the event that the drawn card is a diamond and H is the event that the
drawn card is a heart.

[Solution]
3 13 12
(a) 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ) = = ∙ = P(E) ∙ 𝑃(𝐹)
52 52 52
Therefore the events E and F are independent.
ch2 9
 13 13
(b) 𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐻 ) = 0 ≠ ∙ = P(D) ∙ 𝑃(𝐻)
52 52
Therefore the events D and H are not independent.

In practice, one often has intuitive feelings about independence. For example, if
you toss a coin twice, the second toss is independent of the first (a coin has no
memory).

Example 5 A company produces 1000 refrigerators per week at 3 plants. Plant A

produces 350 refrigerators per week, plant B produces 250 refrigerators per week
and plant C produces 400 refrigerators per week. Production records indicate that
5% of the refrigerators produced at plant A are defective, 3% of those produced at
plant B are defective and 7% of those produced at plant C are defective. All the
refrigerators are shipped to a central warehouse.
(a) If a refrigerator is randomly selected at the warehouse, what is the probability
that it is defective?

(b) If a refrigerator randomly selected at the warehouse is found to be defective,

what is the probability that it was produced by plant A?

[Solution] We begin by constructing the following tree diagram where

A the event that the randomly selected refrigerator was produced at plant A,
B the event that the randomly selected refrigerator was produced at plant B,
C the event that the randomly selected refrigerator was produced at plant C,
D  the event that the randomly selected refrigerator is defective.

(a)
P(D)
 P(A  D)  P(B  D)  P(C  D)
 P(A) P(D  A)  P(B) P(D  B)  P(C) P(D  C)
 0.35 (0.05)  0.25 (0.03)  0.4 (0.07)
 0.053.

ch2 10
 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐷) 0.35(0.05) 35
(b) P(A  D)    ( 0.3302)
𝑃(𝐷) 0.053 106

Section 2.4 Random Variables

Definition A random variable is a correspondence such that to each outcome of

an experiment there corresponds exactly one real number. All the corresponding
real numbers are values taken on by the random variable.

Section 2.5 Discrete Random Variables

Definition If a random variable takes on only a finite number of values or an
infinite sequence of values, it is called a discrete random variable. For a discrete
random variable X, define the probability function f(x) as

f(x)  P(X  x)
for all values x taken on by X.

Therefore, if f(x) is a probability function, then

f(x)  0 for any x,
 f(x)  1 where the summation runs over all x such that f(x) 
0.

Definition
The expectation, expected value or mean of a discrete random variable X is
defined as
 x f(x)
(if it exists) and is denoted by E(X) or , where f(x) is the probability function of
X and the summation runs over all x such that f(x)  0.

ch2 11
If   E(X) exists, the variance of X is defined as
 (x  )2 f(x)  [ x2 f(x)]  2
(if it exists) and is denoted by Var(X) or  2, where the summation runs over all x
such that f(x)  0.

The standard deviation of X is defined as the non-negative square root of the

variance (if it exists) of X and is denoted by .

If X takes on only one value, then Var(X)  0.

Example 1 Let X be the number obtained from rolling a fair dice.

x, the value of X 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1 1 1 1 1
f(x)  P(X  x)
6 6 6 6 6 6
1 1 1 1
    x f(x)  1 ∙ 6 + 2 ∙ 6 + ⋯ + 6 ∙ 6 = 3 2

 2   (x  )2 f(x)

1 1 1 1 1 1 11
= (1 − 3 )2 + (2 − 3 )2 + ⋯ + (6 − 3 )2 = 2
2 6 2 6 2 6 12

or
 2  [ x2 f(x)]  2
1 1 1 1
 12 ∙ + 22 ∙ + ⋯ 62 ∙ −(3 )2
6 6 6 2
11
2
12

In general, if X is the number of successes in a binomial experiment, then X is a

discrete random variable with
P(X  x)  Cn,x px (1  p)n  x, x  0, 1, …, n,
where
n  the number of trials,
p  the probability of a success on each trial.

Example 2 When a certain unbalanced coin is flipped, the probability that the
head turns up is 0.3 and that the tail turns up is 0.7. If the coin is flipped 5 times,
what is the probability that we get more heads than tails?

[Solution] Let X be the number of heads we get.

ch2 12
 P(X  3)  P(X  4)  P(X  5)
 C5,3 0.33 0.72  C5,4 0.34 0.7  C5,5 0.35
 0.1323  0.02835  0.00243
 0.16308.

Definition We say that a random variable X follows the binomial probability

distribution (or just binomial distribution) with parameters n and p if f(x), the
probability function of X, is given by
f(x)  Cn,x px(1  p)n  x, x  0, 1, …, n.

Theorem 1 For a random variable X following the binomial distribution with

parameters n and p,
E(X)  n p and Var(X)  n p (1  p).

We say also that the mean and variance of the binomial distribution with
parameters n and p are n p and n p (1  p) respectively.

Example 3 let f(x)  P(X  x) for x  0, 1, 2 and 3.

If X it is binomial distribution with p=0.1 and n=3
then
f(0)  P(X  0)  0.729,
f(1)  P(X  1)  0.243,
f(2)  P(X  2)  0.027,
f(3)  P(X  3)  0.001,

E(X)  0  1  0.243  2  0.027  3  0.001

 0.3 (according to the definition of E(X))
or

E(X)  3  0.1  0.3 (according to the theorem above).

Var(X)  0  12  0.243  22  0.027  32  0.001  0.32

 0.27 (according to the formula for Var(X))
or
Var(X)  3  0.1  0.9  0.27 (according to the theorem above).
ch2 13
Definition We say that a random variable X follows the Geometric probability
distribution if we can repeat a trial for infinitely many times, each with the same
probability of a success being p.

Let W be the number of trials until a success is obtained. Then W is a random

variable and can take on any positive integer values.

For w  1,
P(W  w)  p.

For any positive integer w  1,

P(W  w)

 P(the results of the first, second, … and (w  1)th trials are all failures, while
the result of the wth trial is a success)

 (1  p)w1 p.

We say that W follows the geometric (probability) distribution with parameter

p.

It can be proved that (for p  0)

E(W)  1  p and Var(W)  q  p2.

Definition: Hypergeometric (probability) distribution

In general, suppose there are N items with k of them of type A and the others of
type B. We then randomly selected without replacement n items from all the N
items. Let X be the number of items of type A among those being selected. Then
𝐶𝑘,𝑥 𝐶𝑁−𝑘,𝑛−𝑥
P(X  x) 
𝐶𝑁,𝑛

where x can be 0, 1, …, min{n, k} with the restriction that n  x  N  k.

We say that X follows a hypergeometric (probability) distribution.
ch2 14
It can be proved that
𝑛𝑘 𝑛𝑘(𝑁−𝑘)(𝑁−𝑛)
E(X)  and Var(X) 
𝑁 𝑁2 (𝑁−1)

Example 4 Among the 120 applicants for a job, only 80 are actually qualified. If
5 of the applicants are randomly selected
(a) without replacement,

(b) with replacement,

for an interview, find the probability that only 2 of the 5 will be qualified.

[Solution]
(a) Without replacement:
C80, 2 C40,3
C120,5
80∙79∙40∙39∙38∙1∙2∙3∙4∙5

1∙2∙1∙2∙3∙120∙119∙118∙117∙116

79∙40∙19∙5
  0.1638.
3∙119∙59∙3∙29

(b) With replacement: now we have a binomial experiment with 5 trials, and a
success is selecting a qualified applicant. Therefore p, the probability of a
80 2
success, is  , and the required probability is
120 3
2 2 10∙4
C5,2 ( )2 (1 − )3   0.1646.
3 3 35

[Remark] The two answers are close to each other. Why?

Definition We say that a random variable X follows the Poisson (probability)

distribution with parameter  ( 0) if f(x), the probability function of X, is given
by
 x
f(x)  e  , x  0, 1, 2, …
x!
ch2 15
It can be proved that
E(X)   and Var(X)  .

Poisson distribution can serve as a model for the number of successes that occur
during a given time interval or in a specific region

Example 5 The average number of trucks arriving on a day at a truck depot is

known to be 12. If Poisson distribution is assumed, what is the probability that on
a certain day fewer than 9 trucks will arrive at the depot?

[Solution] Let X be the number of trucks arriving on a certain day. Then

𝑒 −12 12𝑥
P(X  9)  ∑8𝑥=0
𝑥!

122 128
 𝑒 −12 (1 + 12 + + ⋯+ )  0.1550.
2 8!

Example 6 A certain kind of sheet metal has, on average, five defects per square
metre. If Poisson distribution is assumed, what is the probability that a 1.5-square-
metre sheet of the metal will have at least 6 defects?

[Solution] Let X be the number of defects in a 1.5-square-metre sheet. Then

  E(X)  5  1.5  7.5.

𝑒 −7.5 7.5𝑥
P(X  6)  1 − ∑5𝑥=0
𝑥!

7.52 7.55
 1 − 𝑒 −7.5 (1 + 7.5 + + ⋯+ )
2 5!

 0.7586.

ch2 16
Continuous Random Variables
Definition Suppose X is a random variable. If there exists a non-negative function
f(x) such that the probability
P(a  X  b)
equals the area bounded by the graph of f(x), the x axis, and the two vertical lines
x  a and x  b for all real numbers a and b with a  b,

then X is called a continuous random variable and f(x) is called a probability

density function of the random variable X.

Therefore, if X is a continuous random variable with f(x) being a probability

density function, then
P(X  a)  P(a  X  a)  0
for any real number a; that is, the probability of taking on any particular value is
0.

Furthermore,
P(a  X  b)  P(a  X  b)
 P(a  X  b)  P(a  X  b)
 the area under the graph of f(x) from a to b.

And the area between the whole graph of f(x) and the x axis is 1.

Properties of the graph of a normal density function (called a normal curve):

1. it is symmetric about x   (hence the area to the left of the mean and that to
the right are both 0.5);
2. the highest point is at x  ;
3.  determines the shape of the curve (larger values result in wider and flatter
curves).
ch2 17
Definition If a normal density function can serve as a probability density function
of a continuous random variable X, we say that X follows the normal probability
distribution (or just normal distribution) with mean  and standard deviation 
and write
X follows N(,  2).

Especially when   0 and   1, we say that the normal distribution is standard.

Usually we use Z to denote a random variable following the standard normal
distribution.

The standard normal distribution table gives the values of P(0  Z  z) for positive
values of z.

ch2 18
Example 1 Find P(Z  1).
[Solution]

P(Z  1)  P(Z  0)  P(0  Z  1)

 0.5  0.3413  0.8413

Example 2 Find P(Z  1.58).

[Solution]
P(Z  1.58)  P(Z  0)  P(0  Z  1.58)
 0.5  0.4429  0.0571

Example 3 Find P(Z  0.5).

[Solution] By symmetry,

P(Z  0.5)  P(Z  0.5)

 P(Z  0)  P(0  Z  0.5)
 0.5  0.1915  0.3085.
ch2 19
Example 4 Find P(Z  0.5).
[Solution]
P(Z  0.5)  P(Z  0)  P(0.5  Z  0)
 P(Z  0)  P(0.5  Z  0)  0.5  0.1915
 0.6915.

[Remark] Relation between this example and the previous one:

P(Z  0.5)  P(Z  0.5)  1.

Example 5 Find P(1  Z  1).

[Solution]

P(1  Z  1)
 P(1  Z  0)  P(0  Z  1) (by symmetry)
 P(1  Z  0)  P(0  Z  1)
 2(0.3413)  0.6826.

Example 6 Find P(1.58  Z  1).

[Solution]

P(1.58  Z  1)  P(1.58  Z  1)

ch2 20
 P(0  Z  1.58)  P(0  Z  1)
 0.4429  0.3413  0.1016.

Theorem 1 If X follows N(,  2) and we let

X 
Z

(called standardisation), then Z will follow N(0, 1).

Example 7 A manufacturer of batteries has observed that the amount of time a

randomly selected battery lasts when used in a toy racing car is normally
distributed with the mean being 26 hours and the standard deviation being 2.5
hours. What is the probability that a battery randomly selected lasts less than 24
hours?

[Solution] Let X be the amount of time the battery lasts. Then X follows
N(26, 2.52).
𝑋−26 24−26
P(X  24)  𝑃( < )
2.5 2.5
 P(Z  0.8)  P(Z  0.8)
 0.5  P(0  Z  0.8)  0.5  0.2881
 0.2119,

Example 8 Pep Zone sells auto parts and supplies including a popular multi-grade
of motor oil. When the stock of this oil drops to 80 litres, a replenishment order is
placed. The store manager is concerned that sales are being lost due to stock-outs
while waiting for the delivery of the oil ordered. It has been determined that the
lead time demand is normally distributed with the mean being 60 litres and the
standard deviation being 16 litres. Find the probability of a stock-out.
[Solution] Let X be the lead time demand. Then X follows N(60, 162).
𝑋−60 80−60
P(X  80)  𝑃( > )
16 16
 P(Z  1.25)  P(Z  0)  P(0  Z  1.25)
 0.5  0.3944  0.1056,

ch2 21
Example 9 Assume that the income of a randomly selected family from a city
follows the normal distribution with the mean being $44,483 and the standard
deviation being $10,500. Find the probability that the income of a randomly
selected family from the city is between $30,000 and $50,000.
[Solution] Let X (in dollars) be the income of a randomly selected family. Then
X follows N(44483, 105002),

P(30000  X  50000)
30000−44483 𝑋−44483 50000−44483
 𝑃( < < )
10500 10500 10500
 P(1.38  Z  0.53)
 P(1.38  Z  0)  P(0  Z  0.53)
 P(0  Z  1.38)  P(0  Z  0.53)
 0.4162  0.2019  0.6181,

Theorem 2 For the binomial distribution with parameters n and p, the normal
distribution with mean np and variance np(1 p) can be used as an approximation
to the binomial distribution when np and n(1  p) are both greater than 5.

Example 10 The city’s legal affairs director reports that based on past experience,
60% of automobiles reported stolen are recovered and returned to their owners. In
a month in which 40 automobiles are stolen, what is the probability that 28 or more
will be recovered and returned to their owners?

[Solution] Let X be the number of the stolen automobiles being recovered and
returned to their owners. Then X follows the binomial distribution with n  40 and
p  0.6. Since
np  24  5 and n(1  p)  16  5,

ch2 22
we may say that X follows approximately the normal distribution with mean np 
24 and variance np(1  p)  9.6.
P(X  28)  P(X  27.5)
𝑋−24 27.5−24
 𝑃( > )
√9.6 √9.6

 P(Z  1.13)  P(Z  0)  P(0  Z  1.13)

 0.5  0.3708  0.1292,

where Z  (X  24)  √9.6 follows N(0, 1).

[Remark 1] Note that we use “27.5” instead of “28” in the calculation. This is
called a correction for continuity. The reason is that if we write
𝑋−24 28−24
P(X  28)  𝑃( > )
√9.6 √9.6
 P(Z  1.29)  0.0985

and similarly
𝑋−24 27−24
P(X  27)  𝑃( < )
√9.6 √9.6
 P(Z  0.97)  0.8340,

Then P(X  28)  P(X  27)

 0.0985  0.8340  0.9325  1.

This is in contradiction with

P(X  28)  P(X  27)  1.

[Remark 2] By using the binomial distribution directly,

40
P(X  28) 

x  28
C40,x 0.6x(1  0.6)40  x

 0.1285.
ch2 23