Neeraj Bajpayee

BHS Debate

PTX Updates

Neeraj Bajpayee

BHS Debate

Obama Win
[___] Obama is winning in key swing states. Witt 10/18/2012 (Ryan Witt is a graduate of Washington University Law School in St. Louis and has extensive experience
teaching government and politics. His articles have been cited by The Washington Post, NPR, Politics Daily, The Guardian, The Huffington Post, Media Matters, Daily Kos, and Think Progress among others. http://www.examiner.com/article/updated-obamaversus-romney-polls-the-10-key-battleground-states-2; NBaj) The most recent polls, including many released over the last 24 hours, show that Obama may have stopped the bleeding in the key swing states. Last week Romney was still gaining on Obama in many states like Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. This

week

Obama has either maintained or widened his lead in most of the ten swing states. Romney is still winning Florida and North Carolina, but Obama is winning Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada. Colorado and Virginia could best be described as a tie at this point. Almost all of these polls do not include any bump Obama may have received from his win in the second presidential debate on Tuesday night. Below are the updates for each state, including the most recent poll, a Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of polls, an average of polls from the last two weeks, and Nate Silvers probabilities for who will win the state. Last Thursday's update showed President Obama leading in eight out of the ten states listed below, and tied in Florida.

[___] Obama has a three-point lead in Floridaa must-win for Romney. Sink 10/18/2012 (Justin Sink; Staff writer for The Hill http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/262759-obama-opens-threepoint-lead-in-florida; NBajNeeraj Bajpayee Page 2 President Obama 11/20/2012Neeraj Bajpayee Page 2 11/20/2012)

has opened a three point lead in the crucial swing state of Florida, further evidence that the president may have halted or even reversed some of the momentum swinging in Mitt Romney's favor after his consensus win in the first presidential debate. The survey, by Newsmax and Zogby, gave the president a 47-44 percent lead in the Sunshine State. The poll is a reversal from
recent trends in the race that have showed Romney with a lead in the state; polls released earlier this week by Gravis Marketing and Public Policy Polling gave the Republican nominee a one point lead in the state. Still, there were danger signs for the president in the the data. While 43 percent of voters said the president "deserves to be reelected," 45 percent say it is "time for someone new." Men were more likely to say it was time for a change, while more women say the president deserves reelection. Romney also led with NASCAR fans and military families; the president had the advantage with union households. The president's approval ratings in the state were evenly split, with 48 percent both approving and disapproving. Florida's

29 electoral votes are likely a must-win for Romney; losing the state would require the Republican nominee to nearly sweep the remaining toss-up states.
Obama won Florida 51 to 48 percent in 2008, but President George W. Bush took the state 52 to 47 percent over Sen. John Kerry in 2004.

[___] Obama is winning Floridaa must-win state for Republicans. Foerster 10/15/12 (JENNA BUZZACCO-FOERSTER; Writer at Scripps Howard News Service;
http://www.scrippsnews.com/content/florida-king-swing-states-presidential-election; NBaj)

Florida might not be a must-win state for President Barack Obama. But all paths to a Republican victory in November must lead through the Sunshine State, analysts say. "Obama has momentum in Florida. The polls have shown him with an increasing lead in Florida, which was unexpected given the 2010 election and the (electorate's) mood," said Kevin Cate, a Tallahassee-based political consultant. "If Mitt Romney loses it here, he loses it all." Even so, Floridians can expect to see Obama, Romney and their
surrogates in the coming weeks. In September, University of Florida students got a visit from first lady Michelle Obama; Jacksonville veterans spent time with GOP Sen. John McCain; Vice President Joe Biden spent a morning with southwest Floridians; Obama scheduled a fundraiser in Miami this week; and GOP vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan got a taste of Cuba in Little Havana.

Neeraj Bajpayee

BHS Debate

Romney Win
[___] Romney has a four percent lead in swing states and is gaining momentum. Page 10/15/2012 (Susan Page is an American journalist and the current Washington Bureau Chief for USA Today;
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/10/15/swing-states-poll-women-voters-romney-obama/1634791/; NBaj)

Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation's top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank. As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds
female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney.

The Republican nominee has pulled within one point of the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-49%, and leads by 8 points among men. The battle for women, which was apparent in the
speakers spotlighted at both political conventions this summer, is likely to help define messages the candidates deliver at the presidential debate Tuesday night and in the TV ads they air during the final 21 days of the campaign. As a group, women tend to start paying attention to election contests later and remain more open to persuasion by the candidates and their ads. That makes women, especially blue-collar "waitress moms" whose families have been hard-hit by the nation's economic woes, the quintessential swing voters in 2012's close race. "In every poll, we've seen a major surge among women in favorability for Romney" since his strong performance in the first debate, veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says. "Women went into the debate actively disliking Romney, and they came out thinking he might understand their lives and might be able to get something done for them." While Lake believes Obama retains an edge among women voters,

the changed views of Romney could be "a precursor to movement" to the Republican candidate, she says. "It opens them up to take a second look, and
that's the danger for Obama." Female voters are a critical part of the president's coalition. Four years ago, he led Republican rival John McCain by a single point among men, according to surveys of voters as they left polling places. The decisive Democratic margin of victory came from women, who supported Obama by 13 points. Now, the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll

shows Romney

leading Obama 50%-46% among likely voters in the swing states. Men who are likely voters back him 52%44%. The states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Romney pollster Neil Newhouse says the poll shows "encouraging movement" in the wake of the first debate in Denver. Obama pollster Joel Benenson calls the method used to identify likely voters flawed. "In the last election, Gallup's registered voter model not its likely voter model was a much more accurate predictor, with their likely model missing the mark in 2010 by 9 points right before the election," Benenson says. "That explains why Gallup's results are way out of line with a dozen recent swing state polls that show the president with a double-digit lead among women." Among all registered voters in the survey, Obama leads by nine points among women and by two points overall, 49%-47%.

[___] Romney is winning Floridathe key swing state in this election. Witt 10/18/2012 (Ryan Witt is a graduate of Washington University Law School in St. Louis and has extensive experience
teaching government and politics. His articles have been cited by The Washington Post, NPR, Politics Daily, The Guardian, The Huffington Post, Media Matters, Daily Kos, and Think Progress among others. http://www.examiner.com/article/updated-obamaversus-romney-polls-the-10-key-battleground-states-2; NBaj) Florida Electoral Votes: 29 Most Recent Poll: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (PPP 10/14) RCP Average: Romney 49.3%, Obama 46.8% Average of Polls from Last Week: Romney 49.8%, Obama 46.6% Nate Silver Probability Analysis: 65.9% chance of Romney win Changes Since Last Update: Romney

continues to poll strong in Florida, and now holds a 2.5 point lead

in the RCP average. The two most recent polls do show President Obama within one point. Nate Silver slightly decreased Romney's chances for victory here by 0.7%. Florida has all the sudden become a likely win for Romney after being in the Obama win column for much of the past few months. If Obama is to win the states the polls need to show some movement in his direction over the coming week.