Chapter 17 Probability Models The Important Stuff

Included Topics: - Bernoulli Trials - Geometric Models - Binomial Models - Normal Models - The 10% Condition - Success/Failure Condition

The Important Stuff

1. What are Bernoulli Trials? a. Two possible outcomes b. P(success) is a constant (an actual number) c. Trials are independent d. Examples: Flipping Coins, Foul Shots (Bball), T/F Questions 2. What is the difference between Geometric & Binomial? a. Both involve Bernoulli Trials b. Difference lies in the definition of the random variable. 1. Geometric Counts the number of times until the 1st success 2. Binomial Counts the number of successes in a fixed number of trials

3. Geometric or Binomial a. P(1st heads on 3rd flip of a coin) b. P(Making 5 out of 20 foul shots) c. P(4th M&M drawn from a bag of M&Ms is green)

4. The 10% Condition a. We didnt put the M&M back each time the experiment wasnt independent, but we still used the geometric model b. The Independence Condition of a Bernoulli Trial is often violated. c. This condition says that as long as we have less than 10% of the population in our sample, we dont have to replace the M&M before we draw another. d. <10% is hypergeometric

5. Binomial Model
a. Most important concept of the chapter
b. Necessary to understand the sampling model in chapter 18 c. Helps to form the basis for inferences about proportions (the part that scares most students
because they didnt learn this part)

d. Must be able to recognize the circumstances that call for the Binomial model and find the appropriate probabilities e. Must also recognize the assumptions & conditions that allow the use of the Binomial model and what to do for large samples.

8. Assumptions & Conditions a. Assumptions Theoretical, Mathematical Requirements b. Conditions Practical Guidelines that confirm or override those assumptions c. Conditions can override assumptions 1) Example: 10% Condition can override the Independence Assumption. 2) Confirm the Large Sample Assumption with the Success/Failure Condition 9. Math Geeks This is for you!!! Yes, using the Normal Approximation Model for the Binomial Model is not going to give a completely accurate answer. But it will be close enough.

Keys to Success
Read & Watch Chapter 17 Pay Special Attention To For Examples & Step by Steps & Skills Reread these Notes