Professional Documents
Culture Documents
CH 6 Model 12 Financial Statements Sensitivity Analysis
CH 6 Model 12 Financial Statements Sensitivity Analysis
Income Statement
Sales
Cost of Sales
Selling, General & Admn. Expenses
Depreciation
Other Net (Income)/Expenses
Interest Income
Interest Expense
Income Taxes
Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash and Marketable Securities
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Other Current Assets
Property, Plant and Equipment, Gross
Accumulated Depreciation
Property, Plant and Equipment, Net
Other Non-Current Assets
Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
Accounts Payable
Short-Term Debt
Other Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt
Deferred Income Taxes
Other Non-Current Liabilities
Paid-In Capital
Retained Earnings
Other Assumptions
Dividend policy
Interest on short-term debt
Interest on long-term debt
Interest on cash & marketable securities
Number of shares outstanding
P/E ratio
Stock price
Capital structure
Assumption
Will grow at 5%, based on input from management
50% of sales, specified by management
29% of sales, based on expected worsening
8% of Gross PP&E, based on analysis of depreciation schedules
-0.7% of sales, based on historical average
Calculate based on average balance and interest rate specified later
For STD calculate based on average balance and interest rate
For LTD $13.5 million on year-end 2002 balance. Add/ repay at marginal rate below
35% of pre-tax income
Payout target is 40%, but div./share cannot grow more than 10% in any year
7%, based on economic forecast
Marginal rate for repayments or issuances will be 9%
6%, based on economic forecast
Shares will be issued and bought back at average price for the eyar
Will decline to 16 in 2003 and then improve to 18, 20, and 22 in the following years
Year-end price based on P/E ratio and EPS for the year just ended
Maintain 30% debt to total capitalization. Within debt 40% short-term.
2002
$1,334.4
$667.0
$667.4
2003
$1,401.1
$700.6
$700.6
$373.3
$75.2
($8.2)
$227.1
$406.3
$78.9
($9.8)
$225.2
$426.6
$85.2
($10.3)
$234.0
Interest (Income)
Interest Expense
Pre-Tax Income
($2.0)
$23.7
$205.4
($1.7)
$20.1
$206.8
($1.8)
$19.4
$216.4
Income Taxes
Net Income
$72.6
$132.8
$72.4
$134.4
$75.7
$140.7
$40.1
$92.7
$43.1
$91.3
$46.0
$94.7
Assets
Cash and Marketable Securities
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
$28.4
$120.1
$116.8
$97.5
$362.8
$29.4
$117.7
$123.3
$106.5
$376.9
$30.9
$123.6
$129.5
$111.8
$395.7
$913.1
$427.9
$485.2
$986.1
$506.8
$479.4
$1,065.0
$592.0
$473.0
$456.3
$941.5
$492.8
$972.2
$532.2
$1,005.3
$1,304.3
$1,349.1
$1,401.0
$80.5
$110.3
$111.3
$302.1
$85.5
$122.5
$116.3
$324.3
$89.7
$126.8
$122.1
$338.7
Long-Term Debt
Deferred Income Taxes
Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Liabilities
$218.1
$12.7
$94.5
$627.4
$183.8
$19.6
$106.5
$634.2
$190.2
$20.6
$111.8
$661.3
Sales
Cost of Sales
Gross Operating Income
Dividends
Addition to Retained Earnings
Total Assets
Paid-In Capital
Retained Earnings
Total Shareholders' Equity
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
$44.8
$632.1
$676.9
$44.8
$670.0
$714.8
$44.8
$694.9
$739.7
$1,304.3
$1,349.1
$1,401.0
Other Data
Stock Price (year-end)
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (millions)
$51.40
46.2
($53.4)
(1.1)
($69.8)
(1.3)
$47.67
45.1
$57.82
43.8
Financial Indicators
Valuation Ratios
EPS
Dividend per Share
P/E Ratio
P/B (price to book) Ratio
Dividend Payout Ratio
$2.87
$0.87
17.9
3.5
30%
$2.98
$0.95
16.0
3.0
32%
$3.21
$1.05
18.0
3.4
33%
Profitability Ratios
Return on Equity (ROE)
Return on Sales (ROS)
21.2%
17.0%
19.3%
16.1%
19.3%
15.9%
Growth Rates
EPS Growth Rate
Dividend Growth Rate
Sales Growth Rate
EBIT Growth Rate
Net Income Growth Rate
1.4%
2.1%
2.6%
3.7%
0.1%
3.6%
10.0%
5.0%
-0.9%
1.2%
7.8%
10.0%
5.0%
3.9%
4.7%
Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratios
Quick Ratios
1.20
0.49
1.16
0.45
1.17
0.46
5.7
11.1
5.7
11.9
5.7
11.9
32.7%
21.7%
48.5%
30.0%
18.0%
42.9%
30.0%
18.0%
42.9%
9.6
12.8
11.2
15.1
12.0
16.4
Leverage Ratios
Total Debt to Total Capitalization
Long-Term Debt to Total Capitalization
Total Debt to Equity
Coverage Ratios
Times Interest Earned (TIE)
Cash Coverage Ratio
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Net Income
$151.6
$118.6
$126.5
$134.7
$143.0
$151.6
$160.5
$169.6
$179.0
$188.6
$198.5
EPS
$3.63
$2.80
$2.99
$3.20
$3.41
$3.63
$3.86
$4.10
$4.34
$4.59
$4.85
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
48.0%
$240.5
$243.7
$246.8
$250.0
$253.2
$256.3
$259.5
$262.7
$265.8
$269.0
49.0%
$227.0
$230.1
$233.1
$236.1
$239.2
$242.2
$245.2
$248.2
$251.3
$254.3
Forecast Period
Forecasting
Factor
5.0%
50.0%
2005
$1,544.7
$772.4
$772.4
2006
$1,622.0
$811.0
$811.0
$448.0
$92.0
($10.8)
$243.2
$470.4
$99.4
($11.4)
$252.6
29.0%
8.0%
-0.7%
($1.9)
$20.3
$224.7
($2.0)
$21.3
$233.3
6.0%
7.0%
9.0%
$78.7
$146.1
$81.6
$151.6
35.0%
$49.3
$96.8
$53.1
$98.6
$32.4
$129.8
$135.9
$117.4
$415.5
$34.1
$136.2
$142.7
$123.3
$436.3
2.1%
8.4%
8.8%
7.6%
$1,150.2
$684.0
$466.2
$1,242.3
$783.4
$458.9
8.0%
$574.8
$1,041.0
$620.8
$1,079.7
8.0%
$1,456.6
$1,516.0
$94.2
$131.4
$128.2
$353.9
$98.9
$136.4
$134.6
$369.9
6.1%
12.0%
8.3%
$197.1
$21.6
$117.4
$690.0
$204.6
$22.7
$123.3
$720.5
18.0%
1.4%
7.6%
10%
40.0%
$44.8
$721.8
$766.6
$44.8
$750.7
$795.5
$1,456.6
$1,516.0
($69.9)
(1.1)
($69.6)
(0.9)
$68.45
42.7
$79.90
41.7
$3.42
$1.16
20.0
3.8
34%
$3.63
$1.27
22.0
4.2
35%
19.4%
15.7%
19.4%
15.6%
6.5%
10.0%
5.0%
3.9%
3.8%
6.1%
10.0%
5.0%
3.9%
3.8%
1.17
0.46
1.18
0.46
5.7
11.9
5.7
11.9
30.0%
18.0%
42.9%
30.0%
18.0%
42.9%
12.0
16.5
11.8
16.5
For 2006
Div./Share
$1.27
$1.12
$1.20
$1.27
$1.27
$1.27
$1.27
$1.27
$1.27
$1.27
$1.27
Stock Price
$79.90
$61.52
$65.83
$70.32
$75.04
$79.90
$84.93
$90.11
$95.44
$100.95
$106.61
51.0%
$200.1
$202.9
$205.6
$208.4
$211.1
$213.9
$216.7
$219.4
$222.2
$225.0
52.0%
$186.6
$189.2
$191.9
$194.5
$197.1
$199.8
$202.4
$205.0
$207.6
$210.3
2002
2003
$132.8
$75.2
($12.8)
($1.9)
$6.2
$8.7
($60.8)
($2.3)
($20.5)
$124.6
$134.4
$78.9
$2.4
($6.5)
($9.0)
$5.0
$5.0
$6.9
$12.0
$229.1
$140.7
$85.2
($5.9)
($6.2)
($5.3)
$4.3
$5.8
$1.0
$5.3
$224.9
($92.3)
($49.3)
($141.6)
($73.0)
($36.5)
($109.6)
($78.9)
($39.4)
($118.3)
$30.5
$16.3
$6.6
($40.1)
$13.3
$12.2
($34.3)
($53.4)
($43.1)
($118.5)
$4.3
$6.4
($69.8)
($46.0)
($105.1)
($3.7)
$1.0
$1.5
$32.1
$28.4
($3.7)
$28.4
$29.4
$1.0
$29.4
$30.9
$1.5
Forecast Period
2005
2006
$146.1
$92.0
($6.2)
($6.5)
($5.6)
$4.5
$6.1
$1.0
$5.6
$237.1
$151.6
$99.4
($6.5)
($6.8)
($5.9)
$4.7
$6.4
$1.1
$5.9
$249.9
($85.2)
($42.6)
($127.8)
($92.0)
($46.0)
($138.0)
$4.6
$6.9
($69.9)
($49.3)
($107.8)
$5.0
$7.4
($69.6) See note
($53.1)
($110.3)
$1.5
$1.6
$30.9
$32.4
$1.5
$32.4
$34.1
$1.6