AMAZON DCF

Ticker AMZN Implied Share Price $ 57.73

Date 8/19/2022 Current Share Price $ 138.12

Assumptions
Switches
Revenue Growth 1 Conservative Case
EBIT margin 1 Revenue 2022 11.3%
Taxes 1 Revenue Step ('23+) -1.5%
WACC 1 EBIT Step 22-23 0.5%
TGR 1 EBIT Step 23+ 1.0%
Taxes 25.0%
Valuation and Assumptions WACC 11.5%
WACC 11.5% TGR 2.0%
TGR 2.0%

Income Statement 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

Revenue 232887 280522 386064 469822
% growth 20.5% 37.6% 21.7%

EBIT 12421 14541 22899 24879

% of sales 5.3% 5.2% 5.9% 5.3%

Taxes 1197 2374 2863 4791

% of EBIT 9.6% 16.3% 12.5% 19.3%

Cash flow statements 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

D&A 15341 21789 25251 34296
% of sales 6.6% 7.8% 6.5% 7.3%
% of CapEx 135.5% 171.7% 72.1% 61.9%

CapEx 11323 12689 35044 55396

% of sales 4.9% 4.5% 9.1% 11.8%

Change in NWC (1,043) (2,438) 13,481 (19,611)

% of sales (0.45%) (0.87%) 3.49% (4.17%)
% of change in sales (5.12%) 12.77% (23.41%)

DCF 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

Revenue 232887 280522 386064 469822
% of growth 20.45% 37.62% 21.70%
Conservative Case
Base Case
Optimistic Case

EBIT 12421 14541 22899 24879

% of margin 5.33% 5.18% 5.93% 5.30%
Conservative Case
Base Case
Optimistic Case

Taxes 1197 2374 2863 4791

% of EBIT 9.64% 16.33% 12.50% 19.26%
Conservative Case
Base Case
Optimistic Case

EBIAT

D&A 15341 21789 25251 34296

% of sales 6.59% 7.77% 6.54% 7.30%

CapEx 11323 12689 35044 55396

% of sales 4.86% 4.52% 9.08% 11.79%

Change in NWC (1,043) (2,438) 13,481 (19,611)

% of sales (0.45%) (0.87%) 3.49% (4.17%)

Unlevered FCF
remaining time 2022
Time Period
Present Value of FCF

TV
PV of TV
Enterprise Value
+ Cash
- Debt
Equity Value
Shares
Share Price
Implied Upside / Downsid -58.2%

Base Case Optimistic Case

Revenue Step 1.3% Revenue 2022 12.3%
Revenue Step ('23+) 1.5%
Ebit Step 1.5% EBIT Step 22-23 4.1%
EBIT Step 23+ 1.0%
Taxes 19.0% Taxes 15.0%
WACC 10.5% WACC 9.5%
TGR 2.5% TGR 3.0%

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E

525188 613833 709187 794564 884891 1005250
11.8% 16.9% 15.5% 12.0% 11.4% 13.6%

18689 35251 58461 76631 104379 143789

3.6% 5.7% 8.2% 9.6% 11.8% 14.3%

1197 5660 9465 9574 12896 15596

6.4% 16.1% 16.2% 12.5% 12.4% 10.8%

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E

38716 44729 52137 55508 58235 64625
7.4% 7.3% 7.4% 7.0% 6.6% 6.4%
63.4% 71.5% 80.9% 79.9% 88.6% 93.6%

61051 62599 64481 69493 65697 69052

11.6% 10.2% 9.1% 8.7% 7.4% 6.9%

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E

522839 603245 688476 777142 867514 957551
11.28% 15.38% 14.13% 12.88% 11.63% 10.38%
11.3% 15.4% 14.1% 12.9% 11.6% 10.4%
11.8% 16.9% 15.6% 14.4% 13.1% 11.9%
 12.3% 18.4% 17.1% 15.9% 14.6% 13.4%

15991 31627 42980 60172 80182 102867

3.06% 5.24% 6.24% 7.74% 9.24% 10.74%
3.1% 5.2% 6.2% 7.7% 9.2% 10.7%
3.6% 5.7% 7.2% 8.7% 10.2% 11.7%
4.6% 6.7% 8.2% 9.7% 11.2% 12.7%

3038 6009 8166 15043 20046 25717

19.00% 19.00% 19.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0%
19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%

12953 25618 34814 45129 60137 77151

38716 44729 52137 55508 58235 64625

7.40% 7.41% 7.57% 7.14% 6.71% 6.75%

61051 62599 64481 69493 65697 69052

11.68% 10.38% 9.37% 8.94% 7.57% 7.21%

(2,613) (3,015) (3,441) (3,884) (4,336) (4,786)

(0.50%) (0.50%) (0.50%) (0.50%) (0.50%) (0.50%)

(6,769) 10,763 25,911 35,028 57,011 77,509

45%
0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5
(2,885) 9,141 19,737 23,931 34,932 42,593

832206
457319
584769
66385
47556
603598
10456
$ 57.73