BAB IV

PENGUMPULAN DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

4.1 Pengumpulan data
Data awal Otoped selama 12 bulan
Tabel 4.1 Pengumpulan Data
Demand
Periode (t)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

(A)

8625
9851
9389
9212
9002
9103
9767
9557
9514
8184
9156
9714

IV - 2

4.2 Pengolahan Data

a. Metode DES Brown dengan a = 0,96
Tabel 4.2 Pengolahan Data DES Brown

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

At
8625
9851
9389
9212
9002
9103
9767
9557
9514
8184
9156
9714

FES'
8625,00
9801,96
9407,48
9219,08
9010,40
9098,96
9740,44
9565,40
9515,72
8237,20
9117,12
9691,68

FES''
8625,00
9754,88
9423,26
9226,62
9018,75
9095,42
9714,78
9572,40
9517,71
8288,34
9081,92
9668,70

a
8625,00
9849,04
9391,70
9211,54
9002,05
9102,50
9766,10
9558,40
9513,73
8186,06
9152,32
9714,66

b
0,96
-44,24
16,11
8,19
8,97
-2,44
-23,67
7,68
2,87
50,06
-32,83
-21,10

m FMES' a+b(m)
1 8625,96
1 9804,80
1 9407,81
1 9219,74
1 9011,03
1 9100,06
1 9742,43
1 9566,08
1 9516,60
1 8236,11
1 9119,49
1 9693,56
1 9693,56
2 9672,46
3 9651,35
4 9630,25
5 9609,15
6 9588,04
7 9566,94
8 9545,84
9 9524,73
10 9503,63
11 9482,53
12 9461,43

Error
-0,96
46,20
-18,81
-7,74
-9,03
2,94
24,57
-9,08
-2,60
-52,11
36,51
20,44
Jumlah
Mse

Error^2
0,92
2134,15
353,77
59,89
81,47
8,63
603,86
82,45
6,76
2715,91
1333,14
417,82
7798,77
649,90

AE
0,96
-46,20
18,81
-7,74
9,03
-2,94
-24,57
-9,08
2,60
-52,11
-36,51
-20,44

KAE
0,96
-45,24
-26,43
-34,17
-25,14
-28,08
-52,65
-61,73
-59,13
-111,25
-147,76
-168,20

MAD
0,96
-22,62
-8,81
-8,54
-5,03
-4,68
-7,52
-7,72
-6,57
-11,12
-13,43
-14,02

RSFE
-0,96
45,24
26,43
18,69
9,66
12,60
37,18
28,10
25,49
-26,62
9,89
30,33

TS
-1,00
-2,00
-3,00
-2,19
-1,92
-2,69
-4,94
-3,64
-3,88
2,39
-0,74
-2,16

IV - 3

Contoh Perhitungan :
Periode 1
1. FES = * At + (1 ) FES ' t 1 = 8625,00
2. FES = * FES ' t +(1 ) FES ' ' t 1 = 8625,00
3. = 2 * FES 't FES ' 't = 2 * 8625,00 + 8625,00 = 8625,00

( FES 't FES ' ' t ) = 0,96/1-0,96 (8625,00 8625,00) = 0,96

4. b =
1
5. FMES = a + b (m) = 8625,00 + 0,96 (1) = 8625,96
6. Error = At ( FMES ' + bm) = 8625,96 8625,00 = -0,96
7. Error 2 = Error * Error = -0,96 * -0,96 = 0,92
8. Absolut Error = nilai error yang negative dipositifkan = -0,96 = 0,96
9. Kumulatif Absolut Error = 0,96
10. MAD = Kumulatif Absolute Error / n = 0,96 / 1 = 0,96
11. RSFE = -0,96
12. TS = RSFE / MAD = -0,96 / 0,96 = -1,00
Periode 6
FES = * At + (1 ) FES 't 1

1.

= 0,96 * 9103 + (1 - 0,96) 8625,00 = 9098,96

2. FES = * FES ' t +(1 ) FES ' ' t 1
= 0,96 * 8625,00 + (1 - 0,96) 6516,11 = 9095,42
3. = 2 * FES 't FES ' 't = 2 * 9098,96 + 9095,42= 9102,50

( FES 't FES ' ' t ) = 0,96/1-0,96 (9098,96 9095,42) = -2,44

4. b =
1
5. FMES = a + b (m) = 9102,50 + (-2,44) (1) = 9100,06
6. Error = At ( FMES ' + bm) = 9103 9100,06 = 2,94
7. Error 2 = Error * Error = 2,94 * 2,94 = 8,63
8. Absolut Error = nilai error yang negative dipositifkan = 2,94 = 2,94
9. Kumulatif Absolut Error = KAEt 1 + AEt = 28,08 + 2,94 = -28,08
10. MAD = Kumulatif Absolute Error / n = -28,08 / 6 = -4,68
11. RSFE = RSFE t 1 + E t = 8,63 + 2,94 = 12,60
12. TS = RSFE / MAD = 12,60 / -4,68 = -2,69

Periode 12

IV - 4

1. FES = * At + (1 ) FES ' t 1

= 0,96 * 9714 + (1 - 0,96) 6751,12 = 9691,68
2. FES = * FES ' t +(1 ) FES ' ' t 1
= 0,96 * 6634,22 + (1 - 0,96) 6747,29 = 6635,39
3. = 2 * FES ' t FES ' ' t = 2 * 6634,22 + 6635,39 = 66633,05
4. b =

( FES 't FES ' ' t ) = 0,96/1-0,96 (6634,22 6635,39) = 2,15

1

5. FMES = a + b (m) = 6633,05 + 2,15 (1) = 6635,20

6. Error = At ( FMES ' + bm) = 6633 6635,20 = -2,20
7. Error 2 = Error * Error = -2,20 * -2,20 = 4,83
8. Absolut Error = nilai error yang negative dipositifkan = -2,20 = 2,20
9. Kumulatif Absolut Error = KAEt 1 + AEt = 93,32 + 2,20 = 95,52
10. MAD = Kumulatif Absolute Error / n = 95,52 / 12 = 3,98
11. RSFE = RSFE t 1 + E t = -21,12 + -2,20 = -23,31
12. TS = RSFE / MAD = -23,31 / 3,98 =-5,86
Untuk menghitung FMES (peramalannya) pada periode 1 ke depan yaitu periode
12 sampai dengan periode 24, akan menggunakan m = 1 sampai dengan m = 12
sesuai periode yang akan diramalkan yaitu :
-

Nilai FMES 13 = a + b ( m) = 9714.05 + - 21,10 (1) = 9693,56

Nilai FMES 14= a + b ( m) = 9714.05 + - 21,10 (2) = 9672,46

Nilai FMES 15 = a + b ( m) = 9714.05 + - 21,10 (3) = 9651,35

Nilai FMES 16 = a + b ( m) = 9714.05 + - 21,10 (4) = 9630,25

Nilai FMES 17 = a + b ( m) = 9714.05 + - 21,10 (5) = 9609,15

Nilai FMES 18 = a + b ( m) = 9714.05 + - 21,10 (6) = 9588,04

Nilai FMES 19 = a + b ( m) = 9714.05 + - 21,10 (7) = 9566,94

Nilai FMES 20 = a + b ( m) = 9714.05 + - 21,10 (8) = 9545,84

Nilai FMES 21 = a + b ( m) = 9714.05 + - 21,10 (9) = 9524,73

Nilai FMES 22 = a + b ( m) = 9714.05 + - 21,10 (10) = 9503,63

Nilai FMES 23 = a + b ( m) = 9714.05 + - 21,10 (11) = 9482,53

Nilai FMES 24 = a + b ( m) = 9714.05 + - 21,10 (12) = 9461,43

IV - 5

MSE =

ERROR 2 7798,77
=
= 649,90
12
12

IV - 6

b. Metode Double Moving Average

Tabel 4.3 Pengolahan Data Double Moving Average

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Xt
8625
9851
9389
9212
9002
9103
9767
9557
9514
8184
9156
9714

s't

s''t

9238,00
9620,00
9300,50
9107,00
9052,50
9435,00
9662,00
9535,50
8849,00
8670,00
9435,00

9429,00
9460,25
9203,75
9079,75
9243,75
9548,50
9598,75
9192,25
8759,50
9052,50

9811,00
9140,75
9010,25
9025,25
9626,25
9775,50
9472,25
8505,75
8580,50
9817,50

-190,00
160,75
97,75
28,25
-190,25
-112,50
64,25
344,25
90,50
-381,50

m Ft+m=a+btm Error

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

9621,00
9301,50
9108,00
9053,50
9436,00
9663,00
9536,50
8850,00
8671,00
9436,00
18870,00
28687,50
38505,00
48322,50
58140,00
67957,50
77775,00
87592,50
97410,00
107227,50
117045,00
126862,50

-232,00
-89,50
-106,00
49,50
331,00
-106,00
-22,50
-666,00
485,00
278,00
JML
MSE

Error^2 RSFE AE

53824,00
8010,25
11236,00
2450,25
109561,00
11236,00
506,25
443556,00
235225,00
77284,00
952888,75
79407,40

KAE MAD TS

-232,00 232,00 232,00 232,00

-321,50 -89,50 142,50 71,25
-427,50 106,00 248,50 82,83
-378,00 -49,50 199,00 49,75
-47,00 -331,00 -132,00 -26,40
-153,00-106,00 -238,00 -39,67
-175,50 22,50 -215,50 -30,79
-841,50-666,00 -881,50 -110,19
-356,50-485,00 -1366,50 -151,83
-78,50 -278,00 -1644,50 -164,45

-1,00
-4,51
-5,16
-7,60
1,78
3,86
5,70
7,64
2,35
0,48

IV - 7

Contoh Perhitungan :
Periode 1
1. st = Rata-rata dari Xt ke n dan Xt 2 ke n = 2. st = Rata-rata dari St 1 ke n dan St 2 ke n = 3. a = 2 * St St = 4. b = 2 / N-1 (St St) = 5. Ft + m = a + bt (m) = 6. Error = X t Ft + m = 7. Error 2 = Error * Error = 8.Absolut Error = nilai error yang negative dipositifkan = 9. Kumulatif Absolut Error = KAE t 1 + AE t = 10. MAD = Kumulatif Absolute Error / n = 11. RSFE = RSFE t 1 + E t = 12. TS = RSFE / MAD = Periode 6
1. st = Rata-rata dari Xt ke n dan Xt 2 ke n = 9052,50
2. st = Rata-rata dari St 1 ke n dan St 2 ke n = 9079,75
3. a = 2 * St St = 2 * 9052,50 - 9079,75 = 9025,25
4. b = 2 / N-1 (St St) = 2 / 2-1 (9052,50 - 9079,75) = 28,25
5. Ft + m = a + bt (m) = 9025,25 + 28,25 (1) = 9053,50
6. Error = X t Ft + m = 9103 - 9053,50 = 49,50
7. Error 2 = Error * Error = 49,50 * 49,50 = 2450,25
8. Absolut Error = nilai error yang negative dipositifkan = 49,50 = 49,50
9. Kumulatif Absolut Error = KAEt 1 + AEt = 248,50 + 49,50 = 199,00
10. MAD = Kumulatif Absolute Error / n = 199,00 / 6 = 49,75
11. RSFE = RSFE t 1 + E t = -427,50 + 49,50 = -378,00
12. TS = RSFE / MAD = -378,00 / 49,75= -7,60

Periode 12

IV - 8

1. st = Rata-rata dari Xt ke n dan Xt 2 ke n = 9435,00

2. st = Rata-rata dari St 1 ke n dan St 2 ke n = 9052,50
3. a = 2 * St St = 2 * 9435,00 - 9052,50 = 9817,50
4. b = 2 / N-1 (St St) = 2 / 2-1 (9435,00 - 9052,50) = -381,50
5. Ft + m = a + bt (m) = 9817,50 + -381,50 (1) = 9436,00
6. Error = X t Ft + m = 9714 - 9436,00 = 278,00
7. Error 2 = Error * Error = 278,00 * 278,00 = 77284,00
8. Absolut Error = nilai error yang negative dipositifkan = 278,00 = 278,00
9. Kumulatif Absolut Error = KAE t 1 + AE t = 1366,50 + 278,00 = 1644,50
10. MAD = Kumulatif Absolute Error / n = 1644,50 / 12 = -164,45
11. RSFE = RSFE t 1 + E t = -356,50 + 278,00 = -78,50
12. TS = RSFE / MAD = -78,50 / -164,45 = -0,48
Untuk menghitung FT (peramalannya) pada periode 1 ke depan yaitu periode 12
sampai dengan periode 24, akan menggunakan m = 1 sampai dengan m = 12
sesuai periode yang akan diramalkan yaitu :
-

Nilai FMES 13 = a + b ( m) = 18870,00 + - 381,50 (1) = 18870,00

Nilai FMES 14= a + b ( m) = 18870,00 + - 381,50 (2) = 28687,50

Nilai FMES 15 = a + b ( m) = 18870,00 + - 381,50 (3) = 38505,00

Nilai FMES 16 = a + b ( m) = 18870,00 + - 381,50 (4) = 48322,50

Nilai FMES 17 = a + b ( m) = 18870,00 + - 381,50 (5) = 58140,00

Nilai FMES 18 = a + b ( m) = 18870,00 + - 381,50 (6) = 67957,50

Nilai FMES 19 = a + b ( m) = 18870,00 + - 381,50 (7) = 77775,00

Nilai FMES 20 = a + b ( m) = 18870,00 + - 381,50 (8) = 87592,50

Nilai FMES 21 = a + b ( m) = 18870,00 + - 381,50 (9) = 97410,00

Nilai FMES 22 = a + b ( m) = 18870,00 + - 381,50 (10) = 107227,50

Nilai FMES 23 = a + b ( m) = 18870,00 + - 381,50 (11) = 112045,00

Nilai FMES 24 = a + b ( m) = 18870,00 + - 381,50 (12) = 126862,50

MSE =

ERROR 2 952888,75
=
= 79407,40
12
12

IV - 9