Short-Term Load Forecasting

Using System-Type Neural

Network Architecture
Shu Du, Graduate Student
Mentor: Kwang Y. Lee, Professor and Chair
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Baylor University

Outline
O Introduction and Background
Objectives
Load Forecasting Categories
Load Forecasting Methods
O Proposed Approach
Regression and Rearrangement
System-Type Neural Network Method
Learning Algorithm of System-Type Neural Network
Extrapolation and Interpolation
O Simulation Results
Rearrangement
Output of Semigroup Channel
Extrapolation
O Conclusions
Introduction and Background
Objective
Electric power generation, transmission,
distribution, security
- Increase or decrease output of generators
- Interchange power with neighboring systems
- Prevent overloading and reduce occurrences of
equipment failures
Electric power market
- Price settings
- Schedule spinning reserve allocation properly
Load Forecasting Categories
Short-term load forecasting
- One hour ~ One week
- Control and schedule power system in everyday
operations
Medium-term and Long-term load forecasting
- One week ~ longer than one year
- Determine capacity of generation, transmission,
distribution systems, type of facilities required in
transmission expansion planning, development of
power system infrastructure, etc.
Introduction and Background
Introduction and Background
Load Forecasting Methods
Parametric methods
- Regression method
- Time series
Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)
Spectral expansion technique (Fourier Series)
State equations
Artificial intelligence methods
- Artificial neural networks
Feedforward network
Recurrent network
- Fuzzy logic
- Expert systems
Proposed Approach
Regression and Rearrangement
Regression
- Objective
Represent given load with respect to two major variables
time and temperature
- Load Form factors other weather base total
L L L L
weather base total
L L L
base
L
weather
L
factors other
L
-----Base load component (time factor)
-----Weather sensitive load component (weather
factor)
-----Load component (other factors)
) , , , , ( classes Customer Weather Hour Day f Load
) , ( Hour e Temperatur f Load
Proposed Approach
Regression and Rearrangement
Rearrangement
- Objective
Minimize the fluctuation caused by hourly temperature
Obtain the smoothness of the given load data
Hou
r
1 24 2
Rearrangem
ent
Temperature Day
Hou
r
1 24 2
Load before
Rearrangement
Load after
Rearrangement

-Implementation
Align given load based
upon magnitudes of hourly
temperatures



Proposed Approach
System-Type Neural Network Method
Algebraic Decomposition
- Objective
Form an approximation load data to
- Implementation
O Reorganize given load into a parameterized set

O Select elements and orthonormalize them to a basis set
by Gram-Schmidt process

O Determine the linear combination of basis set for each
element

O Combine the coefficient vector and the basis set to
achieve an approximation


) , (
~
H T L ) , ( H T L
H
R H R T H T L
1
), , ( ] , [ , ) (
1 f T
T T T H L
) ( , ), ( ), (
2 1
H L H L H L
n
T T T T T T
)] ( , ), ( ), ( [ ) (
2 1
H e H e H e H E
n

) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (
2 2 1 1
H e T c H e T c H e T c H L
n n T T
i

) ( ) (
~
) , (
~
H E T C H T L
T

Proposed Approach
System-Type Neural Network Method
H
Function Channel
(NN1)
Semigroup Channel
(NN2)
T
) (
~
T C
) 0 ( C
) ( ) (
~
) , ( H E T C H T L
T

Function Channel
-Structure RBF networks
-Each network implements
one of
orthonormal basis
functions
Semigroup Channel
-StructureSimple Recurrent
Network
-Smoothen the coefficient
vector and
Realize semigroup property
N
N
) ( ) ( ) ( ), 0 ( ) ( ) (
~
2 1 2 1
T T T T C T T C
Proposed Approach
Learning Algorithm of System-Type Neural
Network
Function Channel
- RBF network can be designed rather than trained
- RBF networks emulate selected basis functions
Semigroup Channel
- Primary Objective Replicate and smoothen the vector with a
vector which has the semigroup property
- Secondary Objective Acquire a semigroup property in the weight
space which is the basis for extrapolation
- The entire trajectory is sliced into a nested sequence of trajectories
N N
) (T C ) (
~
T C
1
W
2
W
3
W
4
W N . . . L
o
o
k
fo
r w
e
ig
h
t c
o
n
v
e
rg
e
n
c
e
data point
Proposed Approach
Extrapolation and Interpolation
Extrapolation
- Extrapolation is needed only when temperature forecast at a
given hour exceeds the historical bounds at the same time
Interpolation
- Interpolation is needed when temperature forecast at a given
hour falls into the historical temperature range at the same
time
) (
~
T C
T
Load after
Rearrangement
Extrapolation of
Coefficient


Hou
r
1 24 2
Decompose
&
Smoothen
4
Extrapolat
ed
Coefficien
t 4
Temperat
ure
3
1
2
5
Hou
r
1 24 2
Decompose
&
Smoothen
3 4
Interpolate
d
Coefficien
t
4
Temperat
ure
3
1
2


) (
~
T C
T
Load after
Rearrangement
Interpolation of
Coefficient
Simulation Results
Forecasting Procedure
Data Source
- New England Independent System Operator
Historical Data
- Load load for the year 2002
- Temperature weighted average hourly
temperature of 8 stations in
the New England area
Pattern
- Weekday pattern (Mon ~ Fri) and Weekend pattern
(Sat, Sun)
Next Day Forecasting
- Previous loads and temperatures in the length of
four weeks
Simulation Results
Simulation of Forecasting A Weekday
Load
Rearrangement
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
x 10
4
Hour
Regression Load before Rearrangement
Day
M
W
0
5
10
15
20
25
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
x 10
4
Hour
Regression Load after Rearrangement
T
M
W
Rearrange
Simulation Results
Simulation of Forecasting A Weekday
Load
Output of Semigroup Channel
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
T
C
1
Comparison of Original and Smoothened Coefficient Vector 1


Smoothened
Original
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
T
C
2
Comparison of Original and Smoothened Coefficient Vector 2


Smoothened
Original
) (
~
1
T C ) (
~
2
T C
Simulation Results
Simulation of Forecasting A Weekday
Load
Extrapolation
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
T
C
1
Extrapolation of C
1


Output
Smoothened C
1
Extrapolation
Observation
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
T
C
2
Extrapolation of C
2


Output
Smoothened C
2
Extrapolation
Observation
Simulation Results
Regression Load Forecasting Results
Hour Per. Err. Std. Dev. Per. Err. Std. Dev. Per. Err. Std. Dev. Per. Err. Std. Dev. Per. Err. Std. Dev. Per. Err. Std. Dev. Per. Err. Std. Dev.
1 1.45 238 1.73 378 1.76 454 1.73 418 1.47 299 2.39 425 1.97 366
2 1.27 216 1.72 350 1.81 456 1.68 380 1.47 294 2.55 424 1.83 341
3 1.42 221 1.8 363 1.95 460 1.65 352 1.28 250 2.44 429 1.76 299
4 1.54 226 1.93 369 2.03 464 1.7 339 1.32 261 2.19 408 1.64 278
5 1.57 230 2.13 389 2.06 468 1.9 341 1.39 276 2.17 387 2.05 315
6 1.53 252 1.97 424 2.04 458 1.71 316 1.4 258 1.85 490 1.81 261
7 1.54 305 1.74 400 1.69 390 1.64 379 1.34 259 1.79 624 1.88 288
8 1.41 330 1.22 324 1.4 374 1.47 451 1.17 289 1.87 1137 1.64 302
9 1.21 291 1.39 333 1.27 387 1.49 403 1.1 307 1.93 1105 1.49 316
10 1.18 295 1.36 320 1.32 415 1.3 406 1.1 345 1.69 629 1.21 294
11 1.01 277 1.06 288 1.28 441 1.11 391 1.01 335 1.89 599 1.27 292
12 0.89 213 0.99 294 1.33 464 1.07 346 1.01 326 2 562 1.49 342
13 0.97 244 1.17 350 1.48 547 1.11 320 1.08 271 2.1 602 1.74 393
14 1.09 290 1.33 416 1.55 565 1.15 343 1.19 291 2.09 608 1.87 457
15 1.07 282 1.52 408 1.62 582 1.19 407 1.29 338 1.98 609 1.63 367
16 1.19 324 1.54 426 1.73 663 1.73 631 1.1 310 2.19 648 1.79 415
17 1.51 413 1.57 505 1.56 616 1.73 589 1.22 317 2.3 673 1.88 467
18 1.59 439 1.52 499 1.77 562 1.48 622 1.62 439 2.33 871 1.66 411
19 1.41 408 1.75 607 1.79 541 1.29 375 1.61 437 1.92 662 1.47 346
20 1.39 409 1.42 464 1.66 480 1.17 332 1.5 421 1.61 559 1.51 336
21 1.34 387 1.47 462 1.62 492 1.22 379 1.26 391 1.57 612 1.56 371
22 1.42 357 1.55 525 1.6 474 1.51 447 1.36 391 1.85 565 1.74 401
23 1.34 295 1.95 587 1.58 486 1.47 374 1.17 289 2.41 739 1.97 400
24 1.48 284 2.2 583 2 544 1.46 333 1.16 238 2.16 554 2.16 403
Avg 1.33 301 1.58 419 1.66 491 1.46 403 1.28 318 2.05 622 1.71 352
Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr.
Conclusions
Next Day Load Forecasting based upon
Weather Forecast
O A mathematical approach referred to as algebraic
decomposition is investigated
O The system-type neural network architecture
combining Radial Basis Function Networks and a
Simple Recurrent Network is proposed
O A new training algorithm in the SRN is proposed
O Regression and Rearrangement are performed to
guarantee smoothness of coefficient vector
O Interpolation and Extrapolation are implemented
based on temperatures
O Much better results with respect to actual load and
removal of regression are expected if load and
temperature are highly correlated to each other




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