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. 195 V W 1996 (
36
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n 7.
37

) ( :
A. Sen: Employment, Technology and Development, Oxford, London, 1975.
) ( :
kenneth W. Clarkson and Rogar E. Meiners: Government Statistics as a Guide to Economic Policy:
Food Stamps and the Spurious Increase in the Unemployment Rates, in: Policy Review, Summer 1977,
pp. 25-31.
) (
..
W
W
W 7 .
7
.
:
Sir William Beveridge : Social Insurance and Allied Services, The Macmillan Company, New York,
1942.

7 :
L. H. Thompson: The Social Security Reform Debate, in : Journal ofEconomic Literature, vol. xxi,
December 1983.
) ( W Underemployment
part-time
overtime .
.
7
n 7 7
. 7 n
7 .
. time-lost
.

.n 7
38
:
. 7
:
.
Arthur Okun
% 7 7 Potential GNP
.% 7
7 % % 7
% % %
. :
Arthur Okun: The Political Economy of Prosperity, Norton, New York, 1970.
) ( :
Paul Wonnacott ant Ronald Wonnacott: Economics, McGraw-Hill International Editions, Third
Edition, 1986, p. 145.
) ( : .
7 .
) ( :
Paul A. Samuelson and William D. Nordhaus: Economics, Fourteenth Edition, McGraw-Hill
International Editions, 1992, p. 569.
) ( :
. . 7
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39

1 7
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:
W. Arther Lewis : Economic Development with unlimited Supply of Labour, in: The Manchester
School of Economic and Social Studies, May 1954.
7 7 .
7 ) (
.
) ( Peter N. Hess Clark G. Ross
7 7
7 .
7 . :
The natural rate of unemployment is the rate of unemployment consistent with equilibrium in the
labor market - where the aggregate price level (or inflation rate) expected by labor equals the actual
price level (or inflation rate) in the economy. Thus, at the natural rate of unemployment, there would
be no tendency for workers to adjust their price expectations.
:
Peter N. Hess and Clark G. Ross: Principles of Economics: an analytical approach, West Publishing
Company, New York, Los Angeles, San Fransisco, 1993, p. 543.
) ( :
Campbell R. McGonnell and Stanley L. Brue: Economics: Priciples, Problems and Policies, Twelfth
Edition, McGraw- Hill, Inc., International Edition, 1993, p. 135.
) ( : : .. .
) ( :
W. R. Garside: The Measurement of Unemployment: Methods and Sources in Great Britain 18501979, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1980; M. Godfrey: Measuring the removable Surplus of agricutural
Labour in Low-income Economies, in: The Journal of Economic Studies, Spring 1967, M. Godfrey :
Global Unemployment, op. cit., J.J. Hughes: How should we measure Unemployment? in: British
Journal of Industerial Relations, xiii, 3/1975, A. Sen: Employment, Technology and Development,
Oxford, London, 1975.
) ( 7
7
. 7 Jeremy Rifkin
7
.
n % part-
time 7 .
40
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:
Jeremy Rifkin: The End of Work, The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the PostMarket Era, G.P.Putnams Sons, New York, 1995, p. 167.
) ( :
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871978

1988
1989
1990
8,7
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6,9
6,5
6,9
1991
9,9
10,3
11,3
9,7
10,7
10,3
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2,2
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7,2
7,8
1992
11,1
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1993
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: 1997 1978
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& '%
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11,6
12,7
10,4
9,3
11,3
12,4
9,6
2,9
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8,1
1994
11,2
11,2
9,6
10,8
9,5
11,9
11,4
9,2
7,7
12,0
11,0
8,2
8,9
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10,8
9,4
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7,8
7,6
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6,9
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3,1
5,6
6,9
7,7
1995
1996
1997
50
4,4
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0,6
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6,8
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8,5
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7,7
4,5
8,6
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10,3
8,4
19,5
1988
7,3
6,2
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0,5
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15,6
5,8
7,5
3,5
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3,1
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7,7
17,3
1989
9,2
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1990
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1991
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8,7
13,1
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3,6
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6,6
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1992
9,5
10,9
4,4
5,9
4,5
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16,6
5,5
9,7
17,9
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7,7
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1993

1997 1978
8,1
9,7
4,8
5,4
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15,3
6,8
9,6
18,4
12,1
4,4
8,0
13,0
8,76
24,2
1994
6,4
8,5
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7,2
9,5
17,2
10,0
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22,9
1995
6,1
7,8
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4,5
4,3
5,4
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2,8
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6,5
9,2
15,0
9,5
4,2
6,4
4,3
2,8
12,6
6,9
9,4
16,0
9,5
4,7
6,2
12,8
7,9
21,2
5,5
13,1
8,2
22,0
1996
1997
51
%
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7 7 (.
7
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7 7
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7 %
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52
53
...
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1064,4
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27,4
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35,3
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428,8
2835,7
32,2
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42,7
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23,4
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49,4

%
665,9
3877,3
66,6
156,6
46,5
206,5
1344,9
126,5
100,5
88,0
199,5
177,0
312,8
95,6
683,1
2573,0
1000,5
1568,6

1994, p. 4.
#

!
"#

*
$%& ()

Source: U.N. Economic Commission For Europe, Economic Survey of Europe in 1993 1994, New York and Geneva
27,3
25,0
...
172,0
...
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82,4
...
18,7
18,7
28,6
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968,8
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(.'8 25
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> .? .
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(3 2)
1993 !" #

$ &'* +$- ./'0 5 6! 7 .
7 W

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7 )7 ( .
7
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">= < &*!" # $ %& ' +-. /5 6 :;+-

1989 1970
$A
< $B CD E% %

1970
1975
1980
198988
0,03
0,69
0,76
0,99

0,29
0,39
0,44
0,83

0,44
1,55
2,60
2,25

1,67
2,76
2,32
1,58

0,42
2,38
2,03
3,24

0,21
0,21
0,41
0,66

0,32
9,78
1,46
2,34

0,40
1,49
1,12
1,30

0,19
0,35
0,31
0,39

1,28
2,31
2,12
3,42

0,18
0,45
0,47
0,40

0,27
0,48
0,40
0,36

0,23
0,70
0,57
2,64
!
0,02
0,07
0,49
1,06
"#
0,09
0,11
0,23
1,05

0,14
0,48
2,11
2,33

0,27
0,24
0,39
0,60

...
0,17
...
0,19

0,47
0,70
0,94
0,94
$ %& ()

*+
0,42
1,18
0,62
0,38
) (
* . $-/ *# : ;<= +

Source: United Nations; Report on the world Social Situations, 1993, New
York, 1993, p. 137.
55
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7 7W
.
7 W 7 W
7 W 7
Part-time Temporary
.Employment

7 ...

.
W

Part-time
7 W )
.(
56

)(5 2
Parttime ! "# $
1994 1983 1973
+"'- + / <= >? %

1973
1983
1994

5,9
9,6
14,9

10,1
12,6
15,1

6,4
4,6
6,2

16,0
19,4
23,8

3,8
8,1
12,8

22,7
23,8
23,2

6,7
8,3
8,5

..
6,5
4,8

5,1
6,6
10,8

5,8
6,3
7,3

16,6
21,4
35,0

23,0
29,6
26,5
!"#$
7,8
..
8,0

23,6
24,8
24,9

9,7
15,4
17,0
*) '&%
15,6
18,4
18,9

13,9
16,2
21,4
Source: United Nations; Economic Survey of Europe in 1995 1996,

New York, 1996, p.25.
% % .
7 W

) ( .

) .(

7
n 7 W
57

)(6 2
! "# $
1994 1990 1985
+ -/ + : ;< => %

1985
1990
1994
4,7
10,4
10,9

9,8
10,3
10,2

4,8
5,2
7,3

7,0
5,2
6,3

6,9
5,3
5,1

12,3
10,8
11,9

10,5
11,5
12,9

21,2
16,6
10,3

7,3
8,5
9,4

4,7
3,4
2,7

7,5
7,6
10,9
"!
14,7
18,6
9,3
#
15,6
29,8
33,6

11,9
10,0
11,5
*) ( '& . 25 %
.
7 W

7

7 . 7
7
7 .
: 7
7 7 W ... ) .(
7
58
7 7 W .

)7 ...
(.
7 Financial Effort
7

7 W

.
:
Privatization7 1

7 W.W
.
Re-engeneering
7 .

7
7
..
).(

7
7 ).(

7
59
.

7 7
R&D
7 .
7
7
7 W W
) .()(

W
... ).(
7 7W
7 W 7 7
/ 7 ) (
W 7

W

) (
1
.
7
Trickle - down Effects
.

7

).(
60
) ( h h

Jeremy Rifkin W
7
/ 7
:
7
61
7 .
1
7 7
. 7 7
7 Software WW
7 W
W
7 Knowlege Workers 7 %
7 W 7
).(
7
)( 1 Automation
.
7 Workerless Factories
7
).(
:)
( ) (
7W
) 7
7 ... ( .
7
7
) .( /

:
* .Top Management
* .
* 7 )7 (.
62

.n 7 Globalization
7
W .

/
W7 W
) .( W
7) Dual Economy (
7
7
7.
W
Growth Without Jobs
7
.
7 .

7 7 .
W ) ( ) ( :

7 %
n % .
. 7

) .(
.

63
2,1
2,3
3,2
2,3
2,7
2,1
1,8
3,7
2,7
2,7
2,7
4,2
3,8
5,0
5,0
4,1
4,4
3,7
6,2
3,8
4,4
4,3
3,5
3,9
2,4
2,2
2,9
4,3
3,6
4,8
3.4
3,6
3,6
3,0
2,7
0,2
0,4
2,1
2,5
5,7
5,1
1,3
2,5
2,5
1,6
1,0
1,8
2,0
1,2
0,8
5,0
4,0
1,0
0,8
0,8
1,1
1,1
0,8
0,5
0,7
1,3
2,2
1,1
2,7
1,8
1,7
0,5
0,1
2,2
2,3
1,2
1,5
1,2
0,1
2,2
1,0
0,8
. 144 < = 1996 !>+ =

?
?! = 1996 @+ A B+) : -
;*+-+/ :
)
('
&

#$
"!

:D
87 1978

1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
2,8
3,0
4,6
3,8
2,2
2,9
2,9
0,5
3,5
2,8
2,8
1994
1997 1978

! "#$ %&' * +, ! - . /0 3
4,

)(7 2
2,6
2,8
2,2
2,4
3,2
2,4
1,9
0,9
2,0
2,0
2,1
1995
1,8
2,4
1,9
2,2
2,4
1,3
1,0
2,7
1,8
1,9
2,0
1996
2,7
2,6
2,9
2,7
2,7
2,8
2,9
3,1
2,2
2,6
2,6
1997
%
64
0,2
0,4
2,2
0,1
0,4
0,1
0,4
1,0
2,0
1,2
1,1
1,7
1,8
3,2
4,2
0,5
0,9
0,8
1,7
2,3
2,0
2,0
1,7
2,2
2,1
2,7
0,1
1,5
1,4
1,9
2,0
1,8
1,9
1,5
1,8
0,6
0,4
1,2
1,1
2,6
2,0
1,3
1,4
1,5
0,1
0,4
1,9
3,1
0,8
0,2
1,7
1,9
0,9
0,1
0,2
. 147 < = 1996 $! %& ' *+, >+ ? @+) : -
*+-+. /:
)
('
&

#$
"!

/B
87 1978

1988
1989
1990
1991
1,3
0,8
0,6
2,4
0,9
0,6
1,9
1,1
0,7
0,1
0,2
1992
1,8
1,7
1,4
0,8
2,5
1,0
1,8
0,2
1,5
0,2
0,2
1993
1997 1978

! "#

)(8 2
0,3
0,4
2,1
0,7
1,7
0,1
0,7
0,1
2,3
0,9
0,8
1994
0,7
1,9
1,6
0,6
0,5
1,5
0,3
0,1
1,5
0,8
1,0
1995
0,3
1,5
1,3
0,5
0,7
0,5
1,5
0,3
0,6
0,3
0,5
1996
0,8
1,4
1,9
0,7
1,0
1,1
1,0
1,1
0,9
1,0
1997
%
65
% n
% .
) .(

) ( n %
7 W
n %.
...
7
) (

7 W
.
66

)7 ( : 7
:7 :
A. Maddison: Phases of Capitalist Development, Oxford University Press, 1982; E. Mandel, Late
Capitalism, New Left Books, London, 1975; P. Armstrong, A. Glyn and J. Harrison: Capitalism Since
1945, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, U.K. 1991.
) ( n :
. 7
) ( .
) ( .
) ( : 7 .
)7 ( :
United Nations: Report on the World Social Situation 1993, New York, 1993,pp. 135-138.
)7 ( :
P. Heller, R. Hemming and P. Kohnert, Aging and Social Expenditur in the Major Industerial Countries,
1980-2025, IMF. Occasional Paper No. 47, Washington, D.C., 1986.
) ( : 7 7 .
) ( :
OECD: Social Expenditure, 1960-1990, Problems of Growth and Control, OECD Social Policy Studies,
;No.1, Paris, 1985; OECD, Reforming Public Pensions, OECD Social Policy Studies, No.5, Paris, 1988
OECD: The Challenge of Unemployment, Paris, 1982; Government of the United Kingdom: Reform
of Social Security; Programme for Action, HM Stationary office, London, 1985.
) (
. 7
W
7 )
Euro .( :
%
.

)7 (W %
.
7
67

W .
7 .%
% .
Stern, No. 51/1996, s. 36 - 40 :
) (
. 7 7 WW
n % 7 .
W 7 % .
7 W) W 7 ( W
W 7 :
Fredrick Strobel: Britain Goes Down the Path of Income Inequality, in: Challenge, Nov/Dec. 1995,
pp. 37/38.
) ( : 7
.
)7 ( :
Mckinsey Global Institute: Employment Performance, Mckinsey Company, Inc., Washington D.C.,
1994, and see also: Muala Beck: Shifting Gears: Thriving in the New Economy, Harper Collins
Publishers, Ltd., New York, 1995.
) ( W 7
7 7 :
Jeremy Rifkin: The End of Work, The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the PostMarket Era, G.P.Putnams Sons, New York, 1995.
) ( .:
ILO: World Employment 1995, An ILO Report, Geneva, 1995, pp.56 - 58.
) ( : ..
W / .//
) ( :
Jeremy Rifkin, The End of Work,..op.cit, p. 174.
) ( 7 : ..
) (
7 :

7 . 7
7 W .
W 7
.
.7 7 7
68

7
. 7.
) ( 7 :
..
.
) ( W 7 .
) ( 7 7
7 . : 7
W

)
( 7 W 7 W
7 7
.
. : 7
.
)1 ( 7
.
.
69
70
3
:
...

)
( 1 .

W

.

W
W

)(

71
Job Security .
7 W
.

) .(
7
W
7 7

) .(

7 7
.

) (
7 .

W 7
.

7

.
1 ) (
:
7 1

72
7
.

.

7
7 .
7
7 .
7 ) (

7.
7

.
.
7
7 .
.

7 .
7 .
;

7
7
.

.
73
7 Extended 7 7
Extensive

.
) (

7 7
7 7
... .

.
) (
7 .

.

7
7 7
!
...

?

7
7 W7W
W W
7 .
7 W
74
W W
. 7 WW
W
.() ) (
.
%
% . 7 % %
7 % %
% % % %
% .% 7 %
% . W
7 7
).(

)(1 3

" " 1993 1990
+-/ 'J A %

1990
1991
1992
9,8
9,4
26,7
25

1,8
11,5
15,6
16,4

...
...
...
...

8,0
14,1
17,8
16,9

0,7
4,1
2,6
3,5

1,7
7,4
12,3
12,1

6,1
11,8
13,6
15,7

1993

1,3
3,1
8,2
10,1

1,6
11,8
10,4
14,4

5,3
10,1
13,3
15,4

17,1
24,5
26,8
29,6
&!"# $%
14,7
15,7
24,6
24,6
). ' (& (...

+-/ ;< = >%?
@ AB D
H/ IJ K
L -/ M#/O PBQ R KL : TV$
Source: U.N. Economic Commission For Europe: Economic Survey of Europe
in 1993 1994, New York and Geneva, 1994, p. 36.
75

W
W .% W
.
) ().(

7) W .()(
n .
7
7 7
.
.
%
W
) (

76
7 W % %
% ) ( .
7 W1
7 W ) ().(

7

)(
.Stabilization Programmes
W 7
. 7 7
W % 7 W
% . 7 W
% 7 W 7
.()% .
7 7 7 .
7 W
W ) ( .
% W % 7W
.
% %
).(

) (
. 7
n % .
7 W %
7 W % .%
% .()
77
% % %
.
.

...
.

) W (
n Self - employed
)
( . 7
.
Part - time
7 7 7 .
7
%
.
%
.
%
.
% .()

. 7
n

78

.
OECD
.
7
.
) (

.
.
n .
7 W )
% %
( .7 b
) .(
W
.

n
.
% % %n
.
b n
) .(

.
7
79

"! )(2 3
*'
"$" % & ! '* +- /
1991 1989 0$5 !6:
)('! )*+

0,4
1989
0,7
0,4
5,8
1990
11,8
1,1
3,3
11,6
7,4
1991
17,0
16,0
10,0
9,0
14,0
1,1
1,1
1,0
0,5
2,1
1990
16,8
3,7
9,2
24,2
19,0
1991
27,8
21,2
19,0
11,9
18,7
1989
2,3
0,3
0,9
0,6
1,1
1990
6,1
0,4
2,0
3,6
0,2
1991
14,5
7,4
6,0
5,5
11,6
2,1
1,7
0,7
0,5
3,9
1990
8,6
0,3
0,4
19,5
18,5
1991
10,9
14,4
10,2
4,9
9,2
1989
8,8
2,3
17,9
291,8
4,0
1990
31,5
3,6
28,6
298,0
10,5
152,8
16,4
27,2
71,9
333,7
:
1989
:
:

1989
:
1991
&: !" # #$ %
1989
5,6
1,0
17,0
251,1
0,9
1990
23,8
10,0
28,9
585,8
7,4
1991
338,5
57,9
35,0
70,3
444,5
Source: United Nations, Report on the World Social Situations, New York,
1993, p. 74.
7 .
.

80

)(3 3

" " 1993 1990
(
M
OL P

1991
1990
1993
1992

6,9
39,4
19,2
10,4

16,2
25,0
43,5
0,5

...
...
10,1
8,6
3,7
4,0
4,0
1,6

24,4
0,3
2,7
1,8

5,5
16,6
13,2
15,8

...
...
...
...

26,5
15,1
2,8
16,0

...
...
32,9
26,5
!
4,7
5,8
48,7
61,0
"#
10,1
2,0
15,3
27,9

9,9
15,3
30,9
43,0

8,7
7,2
29,8
1,7

$
7,9
1,9
18,2
49,1
$
6,8
43,1
30,8
5,0
& %
5,3
29,2
22,7
6,7

6,3
17,7
14,0
43,0
) (
*
>?
+
-/ deflated ;< =>
?>
"$ @A B D H
>. J<K
L
). ' (! (...
Source: U.N. Economic Commission For Europe: Economic Survey of Europe
in 1993 1994, New York and Geneva, 1994, p. 79.

) .( 7
n
% %
.()W %

.()W
%

81
.
7 ) .(
1 Hyper
- Stagflation GosKomstat %
)) (
(.

W . 7
7
) ( 7
7
7 . 7 .

7
.
7

) .(

)(4 3
*'& ! "# $%

1991 + 1990 + 1988 ,-$. "2"56" 7*2 :

1988
1990
1991

17,6
16,1
3,5

13,0
14,0
4,2

11,8
8,9
8,2

16,0
7,5
5,5

0,5
7,5
5,7
1989/ OECD
...
2,0
...
Source: U.N. Report on the World social situation 1993, p. 142.
82
% %
? % % %
% ?
.
)
(

Unemployment Benefits
.
7 W

W

) replacement ratio W
() (
7.W
) (

. W

) 7 (
7 ) W
% (% 7
7) W % W.()(%

1
7
.

83

(5 & 3) '* +,
"
./" 0. 1 +, 2"4 6
!
'7 8/9%
? >*= 1995 < 6

,

)(

!" #$
%
12
37
27

12 6
33
30

12 3
25
44

12
31
38

26
58

96
..
31

24 3
27
27

26
..
22

12
10
52
"!
12
21
87

17
59

19
90
"#$
..
29
46

28
66
Source: U.N. Economic Survey of Europ in 1995 1996, New York, 1996, p. 93

n .
84

) ( : 7
.
) ( :
ILO: World Employment 1995, An ILO Report, Geneva, 1995, p. 14.
) ( 7 ./
) ( :
OECD: Employment Outlook, July 1992, Paris, 1992, p. 249; and see also; United Nations: Report on
the World Social Situations 1993, New York,1993, p. 73.

7 :
United Nations, Economic Survery of Europe in 1995 - 1996, New York 1996, p. 86.
) ( :
United Nations; Report on the World Social Situations, 1994, op.cit, p.75.
) ( : 7 / .
) ( :
United Nations, Economic Survey of Europe in 1995 -1996, op.cit., p. 92.
) ( 7 .
) ( :
7 .
) ( :
United Nations; Report on the World Social Situation 1993, op.cit., p. 75.
) ( : 7 7 )
( .
) ( 7 .
) ( 7 .7
1 .:
R. Jackman: Economic policy and employment in the transition economies of Central and Eastern
Europ; what have we learned?, in: International Labour Review, ILO, No. 3/1994; ILO: World
Employment 1995, An ILO Report, op.cit.,pp 105 - 128.
) ( 7 ) (
) ( :
ILO: World Employment 1995, op. cit,p. 112.
85

7( )
7( )
7( )
7( )
W( )
W
.
%
1991
1990
1988

12,1
13,0
10,1

15,0
12,0
11,7

24,0
17,5
15,4

...
...
11,2

7,3
8,6
7,9

...
19,0
...
OECD

. ! (...)
Source: United Nations, Report on the World Social Situation

1993, op.cit., p. 144.
:( )
United Nations: Economic Survey of Europe in 1995 - 1996, p. 93.
: 7 ()
United Nations, Economic Commision For Europe: Economic Survey of Europe in 1994-1995, pp. 115
- 117; Internationl Social Security Association: Restructuring Social Security in Central and Eastern
Europe, A Giude to Recent Developments, Policy Issues and Options, Geneva, 1994; and see also:
Commission of the European Communities: Employment Observatory: Central and Eastern Europe,
No. 7, Brussels, May 1995.
86
4

W
% 7
% ).(

n %
7 7
% W 7
%
) .(

n %
).(
W
Economically Active

n
87
. 7
) .(
) (
% %
7 % ) .(
7 7
).(

W7W
n .

7 W
) (
% . 7
% W
% 1
.
1 7;
n % W %
).(
7 Capital/Output Ratio
:
% %
% W % 7 ).(

7 .
7
.
88

)(1 4
2025 1950
:

:

1950
2516
832
1684
1970
3698
1049
2649
1990
5292
1207
4086
2000
6260
1246
4997
2025
8504
1354
7150
1955$1950
1,79
1,28
2,04
1970$1965
2,06
0,90
2,45
1990$1985
1,74
0,54
2,11
2000$1995
1,63
0,45
1,94
2005$2000
1,47
0,38
1,74
2025$2020
0,99
0,18
1,15
%
!
: "#
Source: United Nations, Report on the World Social Situation 1993, New
York 1993, p.3.
...
?
?
7
b

7 7
) ( .
n

)
(
89
.

7 ) :
( . 7
7 .

7 7
.
.
) ( W
7
%
7
.
)(2 4
!"#
$% &
'*+ ,- .
/ 0 &% 3
;1993 66 8:
)

(
%
19731966

19801974
19901981
19931991
4,9
3,5
3,3
1,1

4,7
3,2
3,2
1,2

7,0
4,5
2,3
9,8

6,4
4,8
3,6
4,6

8,0
7,0
7,9
8,3
!
8,9
6,3
9,9
11,2
"#$
3,6
3,9
5,6
3,5
)& ( !' &
5,0
3,0
1,9
1,7
&*&+
-. +
6,8
4,8
2,0
3,2
&) / :
7,0
4,6
0,4
3,0
Source: ILO: World Employment 1995, Geneva 1995, p.28.
90

. 7
. 7

.
) .(
)(3 4
19901960
!"# $%
&'" *+% ,

%
19701960
19801970
19901980

4,0
2,2
2,2

) (
5,7
4,5
1,6

3,7
3,1
1,2

0,6
0,9
0,9

3,6
4,6
6,3
!
3,6
3,6
8,2

"#$
1,4
1,1
3,1
* '&
2,5
3,1
0,5
=<; . 28 + - /:

.

7 :

.
91
7
.

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.
7

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W

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) .( 7 7
)
7 .(...
7
7 W W
) .(
) Martin Godfry ( W
7 W
.
7 UNDP
7 W

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.
92

7
.

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:
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.
7 7 7.
7

7
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7
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) 7 (
.

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7 .
) 7
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Trickle-down
).(
93
1
:
7 .
.

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7
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( . 7
7

7 ).(

W 7
) (
7 )
( .
) .(

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.

7 .

7
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(.
94
7

W
7
;
.
.

7
) .(
W :W

7
; 7
n )

... ( .

.

7 . 1
7 )
7( )
( .
7 ) (
) ( Debt
Service Ratio %
95
) .(

) ( .
:
.
7 .

. W

) ( .
7
7
.

7 ;
; 7

)( 7 .. .

7
7.

7 : 7

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!" #$% &% ' * +, - . /2
1990 1985 1980

1990
1985
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2,5
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26,8
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2,5
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York 1993, p.17.
100

Informal Sector
. 7 W

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7
7 7.

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n 7
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W

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103

(5 4)
1990 1981

%
1990
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56,3
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...
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39.9
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31
10.8
8.1
12
25.9
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!
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York, 1993, p. 68.
104

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W
7
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7 W 7 W7 W 7
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7
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W ) .(
% .()W
7 % 7 W
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105
)
(
7 7
n . W
%
7 W % W
% ) .(
7
% ).(
Conceptual
n .
7

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7 (W 7
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7
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106
.
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107

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# ! *+ ',
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(1995)
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5,48
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1,63
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Source: ILO: The World of Work, The Magazine of The ILO, No. 16, June /
July 1996, p. 13.
108
W .

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W
W W W ).(

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110

(7 5 4) 8: ;
!" # $ BC

1986 > ? & @A $ @ ?
%
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(./0)
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3,9
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1,4
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30,7
38,2
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65,8
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6,5
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81,8
36,8
89,2
86,4
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99,2
...
0,5
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0,9
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! "
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%
&

'($)
*
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%
+-
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;

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?

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Source: United Nations, Report on the World Social Situation 1993, NewYork,
1993, p. 140.
111
.

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112

) ( 7 :
United Nations : Report on the World Social Situation 1993, New York, 1993, p. 3.
) ( 7 .
) ( 7 .
) ( : 7
7 7 ) (
.
) ( : 7
.
) ( 7 .
) ( 7 .
) ( 7 .
)7 ( : : 7
7

. :
ILo: World Labor Report 1984, Geneva 1984, see also : Martin Godfry : Global Unemployment, The
New Challenge to Economic Theory, Distributed by Harvester Press, Sussex, 1986, pp. 23-29.
) ( 7 ... .
) ( : 7 ... .
) ( : 7
./
) ( :

.
) ( Martin Godfry: Global Unemployment..., op.cit, pp. 145 - 148. :
) ( 7 .. .
) ( 7 7 :
7 ;
7 ;
7
7
113

7
.
) (
:
IMF: World Economic Outlook, May 1995, p. 186.
) (
7 .
7 W 7 7 :
7 .
) ( : 7
.
) ( 7 7
7 .
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7 . :
7 . 7 :
7 7
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.
) (
7 . 7
7.
) ( : 7
.
)7 ( : 7 7
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United Nations: Report on the World Social Situation 1993, op. cit., p.7.
) ( :
) ( 7 .
) ( :
ILO: Jobs and Skills Programme for Africa, JASPA, African Employment Report 1990, Addis Ababa,
1991, p.50.
) ( : 7 .
114

) ( 7 .
) (7 .
) ( 7 .
) ( 7 .
) ( 7 .
) (7 .
) (7 .
) (7 .
) ( : 7
.
) ( : 7
.
) ( : 7
.
) ( : 7 .
) ( 7 7 :
, in:Jacques Charmes: A critical review: concepts, definitions and studies in the informal sector
David Turnham, Bernard Salom and Antoine Schwarz (eds): The In formal Sector, OECD, Paris,
1990, pp. 10-48; and ILO : World Labour Report, 1992, Geneva 1992, pp. 39 - 44; Harold Lubell: The
Informal Sector in the 1980's and 1990's, OECD, Paris, 1991.
)7 (
7
7 . .
) ( ) 7
( 7 . :
.
:
UNICEF: The State of the Worlds Children, Oxford University Press, 1991; Assefa Bequele and Jo
Boyden (eds.): Combationg Child Labour,
ILO, Geneva, 1988; ILO: Child Labour Survey :Results of methodological experiments in four countries,
1992 - 1993, Geneva, 1996, and see also: William E. Myers (ed.): Protecting Working Children, UNICEF
Staff Working Papers, No. 4, New York, 1989.
) ( : 7
.
) ( 7 :
J. Midgley: Social Security, Inequality and the Third Wold, Chichester, John Wiley, 1984.
115
116
5

.

7

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)
(
117
7 .
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7
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118
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7

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7
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7 7 7

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7) .(
) .(

119
1126
70
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200
2953
300
79,6
460
4417
100
53,6
250
5218
..
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1990
2878
805
731
442
230
132
47
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1975
32
84
70
54
83
46
65
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16
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1980
59
90
78
59
88
57
70
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1985
65
90
81
69
90
58
68
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1990
60
89
86
70
92
51
58,4
90,0
78,0
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1980
77,6
21,7
71,7
10,8
31,9
19,0
56,1
85,0
76,0
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1985
56,1
19,4
69,0
9,1
33,4
15,2

. 13 L - 1996 M 4 C
< ' - N OP 'Q
"#$ %&'* . + - /: -

-
; - < : >? @ %& AB C : DE FG& @ H I+ JG& ;
:
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) ! (..

1975
475
234
218
103
57
39
1980
1734
471
393
171
106
78
1985
2662
612
552
336
157
101
@?
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-

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>1990 1975 =/
<;
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&'
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: &'%
)(1 5
120
) % ( n %
. ;

7.

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Source: Die Wirtschaft, 15 Juni 1995, s. 10.

) = (
125
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1

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1978

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126

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1991/90 +-.$ 4 67

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400
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Source: United Nations, Report on the World Social Situation
1993, New York, 1993, p. 17.

7 )
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128

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#! $&'* +,- .& # /2
3
= 1994 1980 7 :; <7

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% $&'* +,- .&,
19941990 19901980
..
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2,9
6,7
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2,0

%
19941990 19901980
4,8
3,6
2,9
2,5
2,6
2,7
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133

)(5 5
! "# $! % &'# *!+

1984
1985
1986
1987
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1989
1990
1991
1992
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18,8
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. 168 1966 ,&! - .! /&02* 32 : 0
7 % 7
% % .
%
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7
7
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7
7 7
7).(

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134
%
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135
)(6 5

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1985
43,3
28,6
6,5
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%
1991
24,8
29,8
25,5
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1989
27,9
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. 171 @ 1966

!" #$ : &A
)(7 5
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+ , - +

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11,3
;. B;A C; &A C
136
%

(8 5)

! "
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1993 '* +#,
%

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10,0
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11,1
9,1
9,5
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10,0
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%
10,0
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14,5
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11,2
12,1
10,5
14,4
113
7,5
6,8
7,1
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23,5
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10,6
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. 129 Q R 1995 R 1995
137
) (1986)

(25

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7 7:
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pp. 267 - 295, and pp. 355 - 396 vol. 11, 1964, and see also: Heinz - D. Kurz: Zur neoricardianischen
Theorie des Allgemeinen Gleichgewichts der Production und Zirkulation, Duncker & Humbolt, Berlin,
Kiel, 1975; P.M. Lichtenstein, An Introduction to Post - Keynesian and Marxian Theories of Value and
Price, Macmillan Press, London 1983.
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Autorenkollektive; Geschichte der Okonomischen Lehrmeinungen, Verlag Die Wirtschaft, Berlin 1965,
s. 64-66.
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Adam Smith: An Inquiry into the nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, University Paperbacks,
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What constitutes the means of payment for commodities is simply commodities. Each persons means
of paying for the productions of other people consist of those which he himself possesses. All sellers
are inevitably, and by the meaning of the word buyers. Could we suddenly double the productive
powers of the country, we should double the supply of commodities in every market; but we should, by
the same stroke, double the purchasing power, Everybody would bring a double demand as well as
supply; everybody would be able to buy twice as much, because everyone would have twice as much to
offer in exchange.
Quoted From: Martin Godfrey: Global Unemployment, The New Challenge to Economic Theory,
Wheatsheaf Books LTD, 1986, pp. 31/32.
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should possess a body of unproductive consumers, See: T. R. Malthus, Principles of Political Economy,
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182
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%1,47
%1,22
%2,06
%1,60
%1,15
Source: G. Dumenil & D. Levy: The Economics of The Profit Rate,

Edward Elgar, England and USA, 1993, p.264.
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1951 1912
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Source: G. Dumenil & D. Levy: The Economics , op.cit., p.264

Edwar Elgar, England and USA, 1993, p.264.

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Autorenkollektiv : Lehrbuch Politische Okonomie, Vorsozialistische Produktionsweise, Verlag Die
Wirtschaft, Berlin 1972
)7 ( :
F. Behrens and G. Richter: Arbeitsproduktivitat, Teil 1, Verlag Die Wirtschaft, Berlin 1967.
) ( :
Karl Marx: Das Kapital, erster Band, in: Marx/ Engels Werke, Band 23, Dietz Verlag, Berlin, 1962,
S. 127.
) ( . W
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( 7 7
236
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7 7 ) ( :
Paul Sweezy : Theory of Capitalist Development, London, 1949, p. 43.
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237

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7 :
Karl Marx: Das Kapital, erster Band, a.a.O., S. 476.
) ( :
Karl Marx: Das Kapital, dritter Band, in: Marx / Engels Werke, No. 25, Dietz Verlag, Berlin, 1962, S.
259.
) ( 7 .
) ( :. . W 7 7 .
)7 ( :
Karl Marx: Das kapital, zweitter Band, in: Marx/= Engels Werke, No. 26, Dietz Verlag Berlin, 1962, s.
185/186.
) ( 7 .
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Rosa Luxemborug: The Accumulation of Capital, with introduction by Joan Robinson, Rotledge and
kegan Paul, 1957 (first published Berlin 1913).
7
.
7 .
: .An Anti-Critique

.
) ( . . 7
. :
) ( n
:. . 7

.
) ( 7
7 .
.
) ( :
F. L. Trotsky: The First Five Years of the Communist International, New York, Monad Press, 1972.
) (:
J. Gillman; The Falling Rate of Profit, Marxs Law and its Significance to twentieth Century Capitalism,
Cameron Associates, New York, 1958.
238
#
:( )
S. Mage: The Law of the Falling Tendency of the Rate of Profit., Colombia University, Ph. D.
Dissertation, New York, 1963.
:( )
Paul M. Seezy & Paul A. Baran, Monopoly Capital, Monthly Review Press, New York 1966.
7 :
7 W
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. 7 ( )
. 7 7 ()
: b
7 7 7
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. 7( )
. 7( )
. 7( )
: 7 W( )
For Example, among many see W.D. Nordhaus, The Falling share of Profits, Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity, 1: 1974; R. W, kopcke, The Decline in Corporate Profitability, Federal Reserva
Bank of Boston, New England Economic Review, May-June 1978; Andrew Glyn and Bob R. Sutcliffe,
British Capitalism, Workers and the Profits Squeeze, Penguin, London, 1972 M. Panic and R. E. close,
Profitability of british Manufacturing Industry, Lloyds Bank Review, April 1974, G.J. Burgess and
A.J. Webb, Rates of Return and Profit Shares in the United kingdom, Lloyds Bank Review, April
1974; M.A. King, The United Kingdom Profits Crises: Myth or Reality?, The Economic Journal, Vol.
85, March 1975; G. Hodgson: The Theory of the Falling Rate of Profit, New Left Review, No. 48,
1974; M. Okun, G. L Perry Notes and Numbers on the Profit Squeeze, Brookings Papers on Economic
Activity, No. 3: 1970; M. S. Feldstein and L. Summers, Is the Rate of profit Falling? Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1: 1977; D. M. Holland, S.C. Myers, Trends in Corporate Profitability
and Capital Costs, MIT Working Paper 999-87, 1978, B. M. Fraumeni and D. M. Jorgenson, Rates of
Return by Industrial Sector in the United States, 1978 - 1979", American Economic Review, Vol. 7,
No. 7, May 1980; Feldstein, L. Dicks-Mireaus, J. Poterba, The Effective Tax Rate and the Pre-Tax
Rate of Return, Journal of Public Economics, No. 21, 1983, T. P. Hill, Profit and Rates of Return,
OECD, Paris 1979.
A. Glyn and R.B. Stucliff, British Capitalism, op. cit.
: ( )
M. Panic and R. E. Close: Profitability of British Manufacturing Industry, op. cit.
: ( )
Ernest Mandel; Late Capitalism, New Left Books, London, 1975.
: ( )
239

)7 ( :
United Nations, Economic Survey of Europe in 1983, Pre-Publication Text, Part I, Economic Commission
for Europe, 1984.
) ( 7 ./
)7 ( :
P. Armstrong, A. Glyn and. J. Harrison: Capitalism Since 1945, Basil Blackwell, Oxford UK, 1991, p.
250.
) (:
Grard Dumenil and Dominique Lvy: The Economics of the Profit Rate, Competition, Crises and
historical Tendencies in Capitalism, Edward Elgar, England and USA, 1993.
) ( 7 . 7

.
) (7 n 7 7
7 .
) (7 n 7 7 7
.
) ( :
;Harlod G. Moulton: Income and Economic Progress, Brookings Institution, Washington D. C., 1935
Alvin Hansen: Fiscal Policy and Busines Cycles, New York 1941; and see also: M. Aglietta: A Theory
of Capitalist Regulation, New Left Books, London 1979.
) ( : .
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Alfred Chandler: The Visible Hand, The Managerial Revolution in American Buisness, The Belknap
Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts and London, 1977; Alfred Chandler:
240
#
Scale and Scope, The Dynamics of Industerial Capitalism, The Belknap Press of Harvard University
Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and London, England, 1990.
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Joseph A. Schumpeter: History of Economic Analysis, George Allen & Unwin LTD, London, Fourth
Printing, 1961, pp. 145 - 149.
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Roland L. Meek: The Declin of Ricardian Economics in England, in: Economica, vol. xvii, No. 65,
Feb. 1950, pp. 43-62.
) ( :
J. A. Schumpeter: History of Economic Analysis, Oxford University Press, New York, 1974, p. 479.
) ( :
John Gray: The Social System, A Treatise on the Principle of Exchange, Edinburgh, 1831.
) ( :
Erick Roll: A History of Economic Thought, op. cit., p. 246 - 248.
) ( 7 :
J. A. Schumpeter; History of Economic Analysis, op. cit., p. 479.
) (n
: W
The modern notions of Political Economy among the operatives or mechanics are stated, but not very
distinctly, by Thomas Hodgskin in his treatise on Popular Political Economy.. If these be the proposals
that the mechanics combine to carry into effect, it is high time for those who have property to lose, and
families to protect to combine in self-defence.
.
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281

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J. A. Schumpeter: History of Economic Analysis, op. cit., p. 910 ff.
) ( : ... .
) ( : .
) ( : :
7 7 .
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J. A. Schumpeter: History of Economic Analysis, op. cit., pp. 507 - 510.
) ( : .
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Autorenkollektive: Mensch und Wirtschaft - zur Kritik der Auffassung des Menschen in der brgerlischen
politischen Okonomie, VEB Deutscher Verlag der Wissenschaften, Berlin 1967, s. 78 - 91.
) ( ) ( 7
W7 7 . 7
. Das nationale System
der Politischen Okonomie.
) ( :
In this work I have attempted to treat Economy as a calculus of pleasure and pain... See: W. S.
Jevons: The Theory of Political Economy, Fourth Edition, Macmillan and Co. Ltd., London 1911, p.vi.
) ( . :
7 .
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282

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) ( b.
) ( :
;Autorenkollektive: Mensch and Wirtschaft.., a.a.O., S. 99-159; und siehe auch: Hermann Lehmann
Grenznutzentheorie, Dietz Verlag, Berlin, 1968.
) (
.
) (n b 7 .
.
) ( : 7 .
)7 ( :
Bent Hansen: Lectures in Economic Theory, 2nd revised edition, part I: General Equilibrium Theory,
INP - Cairo, 1964, pp. 18 - 22; and see also: R. Dorfman, P.A Samuelson & R. Solow: Linear
Programming and Economic Analysis, New York, 1962.
)7 ( :
J. A. Schumpeter: History of Economic Analysis, op. cit., pp. 742 - 743.
) ( : .
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The whole of a mans income is expended in the purchase of services and of commodities. It is indeed
commonly said that a man spends some portion of his income and saves another. But it is a familiar
economic axiom that a man purchases labour and commodities with that portion of his income which
he saves just as much as he does when he seeks to obtain present enjoyment from the services and
commodities which he purchases. He is said to save when he causes the labour and the commodities
which he purchases to be devoted to the production of wealth from which he expects to derive the
means of enjoyment in the future.
283

:
Alfred Marshall : The Economics of Industry, Macmillan, London, 1879.
:
Martin Godfrey: Golobal Unemployment, .. op. cit., p. 53.
) ( 7 7
:
... with perfectly free competition among workpeople and labour perfectly mobile,.. there will always
be at work a strong tendency for wage-rates to be so related to demand that everybody is employed.
Hence, in stable conditions every one will actually be employed. The implication is that such
unemployment as exists at any time is due wholly to the fact that changes in demand conditions are
continually taking place and that frictional resistances prevent the appropriate wage adjustments from
being made instantaneously.
:
A. C. Pigou: The Theory of Unemployment, Macmillan, London, 1933, p. 252.
: .
) ( : .
.
) ( 7 .
) ( .
) ( . .
) ( 7 :
R. W. Solow: A Contribution to The Theory of Economic Growth, in: Quarterly Jouranl of Economics,
No. 70, February 1956.
) (
:
Paul A. Samuelson & William D. Nordhaus: Economics, op. cit., pp. 549 - 552.
) ( 7 .
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7 7
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7 7 .
. 7
7 Capital Saving 7 .W
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284

7
.7
: 7
Paul A. Samuelson & Willam D. Nordhaus, Economics, op. cit., p. 552.
: 7( )
Joan Robinson: The Accumulation of Capital, An Essays in the Theory of Economic Growth; Macmillan
and Company, Ltd, London 1962; Nicolas Kaldor and J. S. Mirrless: A New Model of Economic
Growth, in: Review of Economic Studies, No. 29, June 1962; P. Saraffa : Production of Commodity
by Means of Commodities, Cambridge, 1960.
285
286
7 Keynesian
School 7
. 7
) John M. Keynes
(

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287
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W :
H. W. Arndt: The Economic Lessons of Neinteen Thirties, Oxford, London, 1944, J. K. Galbraith: The
Great Crash 1929, Benguin Books, 1954, C.P. Kindlberger : The Great Depression 1929 - 1939,
University of California, Macmillan and Co., Ltd, London 1952.
)7 (
.

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: .
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7
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) ( :
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) ( :
Michael Hudson: Super Imperialism, The Economic Strategy of American Empire, New York, 1973,
p. 3.
) ( 7 W
.
) (
306
#
:
1
. 7 .

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:
Joan Robinson: Economic Hersis, Some Old-Fashioned Questions in Economic Theory, Macmillan
Press, Ltd, London, 1971, p. vii & ix.
) ( 7 .

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n % W .W

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. :
William L. Shirer: The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, A History of Nazi Germany, Simon and
Schuster; and see also: Jurgen Kuczyneski: Die Geschichte der Lage der Arbeiter in Deutschland, von
1800 bis in der Gegenwart, Band II, 2. erweiterte Auflage, Berlin, 1948.
) ( 7
7
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) ( :
John M. Keynes: The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (first published 1936),
Macmillan & Co. LTD, London 1964, p. 9.
.
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307

A. C. Pigou: The Teory of Unemployment, Macmillan & Co. LTD, London, 1933.
) ( 7 Propensity to Consume .
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324

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n Macro Economics
7 .Micro Economics
) (
7 1 .

1
. 7
:
R. L. Klein : Keynsian Revolution, op.cit.; A. Burns: Economic Research and the Keynesian Thinking
of our Times, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York 1946; A. H. Hansen: Dr. Burns on
Keynesian Economics, in: Review of Economic Statistics, November, 1947; J. Tinbergen: The
Significance of Keyness Theories from the Econometric Piont of View, in: S. E. Harris (ed.): The
New Economics, Knopf, New York, 1948; W. Leonetief: Econometrics, in: H. S. Ellis, (ed.): A
survey of Contemporary Economics, Blakiston, Philadelphia, 1948; Kenneth K. Kurihara; Introduction
to Keynesian Dynamics, George Allen & Unwin, LTD, London, 1954.
) ( ) (
:
J. R. Hicks, A Contribution to the Theory of Trade Cycles, Oxford University Press, London, 1950.
) ( 7 E. Domar :
:
E. D. Domar: Essays in the Theory of Economic Growth, Oxford University Press, New York 1957, p.
18.
) ( . . :
. n .
:
The idea which underlies these lectures is that sooner or later we shall be faced once more with the
problem of stagnation. See: R. F. Harrod: Towards a Dynamic Economics, Macmillan, London, 1949,
p. 18.
) ( 7 :
G. Jones Hywel: An Introduction to Modern Theories of Economic Growth, Mc Graw - Hill Book
325

Company, New York, 1976.
) ( :
R. F. Harrod: Towards a Dynamic Economics, op. cit; R. F.Harrod: An Essay in Dynamic Theory,
in: Economic Journal, 1939, reprinted in R. F. Harrod: Economic Essays, Macmillan, London, 1952.
) ( :
E. D. Domar: Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth, and Employment, in: Econometrica ; Vol.14,
April 1946, pp. 137-147, and by the same auther: Expansion and Employment, in: American Economic
Review, vol. 37, March, 1947, pp. 34-55; Essays in the Theory of Economic Growth, Oxford University
Press, New York, 1957.
) ( Marginal Saving .
7 .
) ( 7 Acceleration Principle
.
) ( : .
./
) ( 7 7

7
7 7 7 )
7 .Capital Output Ratio n 7 7
7 n
:
7

7 (.
) (
.:
R. M. Goodwin: A Growth Cycle, in: C. H. Feinstein (ed.): Socialism, Capitalism and Economic
Growth, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1967.
) ( 7 :
Joan Robinson: Economic Heresis, Some old-Fashioned Questions in Economic Theory, Macmillan
Press, LTD, London 1971; Joan Robinson: The Relevance of Economic Theory, in: Monthly Review,
January 1971, pp. 29-37; Joan Robinson: The Second Crisis of Economic Theory, in: The American
Economic Review, May 1972.
) ( :
Joan Robinson: The Accumulation of Capital, Macmillan, London, 1956.
326
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John Gustaf Knut Wicksell
F. A. V. Hayek
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:Lester Thurow 7
n ?
? 7
7 % % ?
W ).(
356

) ( :
R. G. Hawtrey : Good and Bad Trade, Constable and Co. Ltd. London, 1913; R. G. Hawtrey: The
Monetary Teory of Trade Cycle, in: Readings in Business Cycles and National Income, Allen, London
1953, pp. 139 - 149, and see also by the same Auther: The Trade Cycle, (1926) in: Readings in
Business Cycles Theory, Irwin Homewood, 1951, pp. 330 - 349.
b 7 : .
. 7
7 / ;.
W .
: 7
.
) ( :
7 ) ( .
)7 ( b 7
b .
) ( 7 M.V = Q.P :
M.V
Q
=P
= M V ) ( = P 7
= Q 7 )7(.
) ( . 7 .
) ( :
Knut Wicksell: Lectures on Poloitical Economy, 2 vols, ed. L. Robbins, Macmillan, New York, 1934.
.
) ( : .
7 .
) ( : . 7
.
) ( :
This natural rate is roughly the same thing as the real interest of actual business. A more accurate,
though rather abstract, criterion is obtained by thinking of it as the rate which would be determined by
supply and demand if real capital were lent in kind without the intervention of money.
357

:
Knut Wicksell: Interest and Prices, translated by R.F. Khan, Augustus M. Kelly, New York, 1965
(First published 1898).
( )
7
: .
the only completely satisfactory explanation of (what) is usually regarded almost as an axiom in ..
economics, namely, that the level of interest on money is not in the last instance determined by a
shortage or surplus of money, but by a shortage or surplus of real capital... the relation of cause and
effect immediately becomes clear, as soon as it can be assumed that a lasting difference between the
natural rate of interest and the rate of interest on money would at once.. lead to a rise or fall in commodity
.prices
:
Knut Wicksell: The influence of the rate of Interest on commodity prices, reprinted in: E.Lindahl (ed.),
Knut Wicksell: Selected Papers on Economic Theory, Cambridge, MA. MIT Press, 1958, p. 83.
:( )
F. A. Hayek: Prices and Production, Routledge and Kagan Paul, London, 1931.
:( )
F. A. Hayek: Monetary Theory and Trade Cycle, Routledge and Kagan Paul, London, 1928.
. : ( )
. 7
7 . :( )
.
7 :( )
.
:( )
John Smithin: Controversies in Monetary Economics, Ideas, Issuses and Policy, Edward Elgar, University
Press, Cambridge, 1994, p. 29.
( )
: 7 7
A. P. Lerner and F. D. Graham (eds.): Planning and Paying for Full Employment, Princeton, 1946;
P.T.Homan and F. Machlup (eds.) : Financing American Prosperity, New York, 1945; E.A.
Goldenweiser: Postwar Problems and Policies, Fed. Res. Bull. Feb. 1945; H. Stein: The Fiscal Revolution
in America, Chicago, 1969.
( )
: Fiscalism 7 7
D. I. Fand: A Monetarist Model of the Monetary Process, in: Journal of Finance, Mai 1976; J. Ascheim:
358

Monetarism Versus Fiscalism: Towards Reconciliation, in: Banca Nationale del Lavoro Quarterly
Review, September 1975.
: ( )
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1978, No.2
:( )
Milton Friedman: A Monetary and Fiscal Framework for Economic Stability, in: American Economic
Review, Vol.38, June 1948; The Methodology of Positive Economics, in: Essays in Positive
Economics, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1953; The Case for flexible Exchange Rate, in:
Essays in Positive Economics, op.cit, pp. 157 - 203; The Quantity Theory of Money - A Restatement,
in: M. Friedman (ed.): Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, University of Chicago Press, Chicago,
1956, pp. 2-21, A Program for Monetary Stability, Fordham University Press, New York, 1960; The
Role of Monetary Policy, in: American Economic Review, Vol. 58, March 1968, pp. 1 - 17; The
Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays, Aldine Publishing Co. Chicago, 1969; The New
Monetarism, Comment, in: Lloyds Bank Review, October, 1970, pp. 52 - 55; M. Friedman & R.
Friedman: Capitalism and Freedom, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1962; M.Friedman and A.
J. Schwarz: A Monetary History of the United States, 1867 - 1960, Princeton University Press, Princeton,
1963; Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom: Their Relation to Income, Prices
and Interest Rates, 1867 - 1975, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1982.
. :( )
7 L. Yeager .( )
7
..7
:
L. Yeager: Monetary Policy and Economic Performance, Washington, 1972, p. 13.
.. : n ( )
:
. .
:( )
7 . 7
.
: ( )
7 . .
.
:( )
Milton Friedman; Thers No Such Thing as a Free Lunch, op. cit.
: ( )
Milton Friedman, The Role of Monetary Policy, op. cit, p. 8.
359

. 7( )
. 7( )
. 7( )
. 7( )
. . :( )
.
. 7( )
: ( )
To avoid misunderstanding, let me emphasize that by using the term natural rat of unemployment,
I do not mean to suggest that it is immutable and unchangeable. On the contrary, many of the market
characteristics that determine its level are man- made and policy - made. In the United States, for
example, legal minimum wage rates, the Walsh Healy and Davis-Bacon Acts, and the strength of labor
unions all make the natural rate of unemployment higher than it would otherwise be. Improvements in
employment exchanges, in availability of information about job vacancies and labor supply, and so on,
would tend to lower the natural rate of unemployment. I use the term natural for the same reason
Wicksell did-to try to separate the real forces from monetary forces. See: M. Friedman, The Role of
Monetary Policy, op.cit., p. 9.
:7( )
S. P. Hargreaves: Choosing the Wrong Natural Rate: Accelerating Inflation or Decelerating Employment
and Growth? in: The Economic Journal, Sept. 1980, pp. 611 - 619.
:( )
Lester C. Thurow: Dangerous Currents, The State of Economics, Oxford University Press, 1983, p. 79.
360
12
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7 W .
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364

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: %
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7 7 .
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) 7 II (Pe = x - q :
7 7 .OUo 7 7
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.of unemployment
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. 7 %
%
.
% % %
.
372
.
n

7 .
.
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373

: ( )
P. Armstrong, A. Glyn and J. Harrison: Capitalism Since 1945, Basil Blackwell, Inc. 1991.
: ( )
A. W. Phillips, The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates
in the United Kingdom, 1861 - 1957" in: Economica, Vol. 25, 1958, pp. 283 - 299.
: 7( )
... the rate of change of money wage rates can be explained by the level of unemployment and the rate
of change of unemployment, except in or immediately after those years in which there is a sufficiently
rapid rise in import prices to offset the tendency for increasing productivity to reduce the cost of living.
Ignoring years in which import prices rise rapidly enough to initiate a wage- price spiral, which seem to
occur very rarely except as a result of war, and assuming an increase in productivity of 2 per cent per
year, it seems from the relation fitted to the data that if aggregate demand were kept at a value which
would maintain a stable level of product prices the associated level of unemployment would be a little
under 2 1/2 per cent. If, as is sometimes recommended, demand were kept at a value which would
maintain stable wage rates the associated level of unemployment would be about 5 1/2 per cent.
(Phillips 1958 : 255 - 6).
: ( )
R. Libsey: The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the
U.K., 1862 - 1957 : A Further Analysis, in: Economica, Vol. 60, Feb. 1960, pp. 1 - 31.
: ( )
P. A. Samuelson and R. Solow: Analytical Aspects of Anti - Inflation Policy, in: American Economic
Review, Vol. 50, May 1970, pp. 177 - 194.
: ( )
James Tobin : Inflation and Unemployment, in : American Economic Review, Vol. 62, March
1972, p.4.
7 ( )
.
: ( )
Arthur Okun: The Political Economy of Prosperity, Nortn, New York, 1960, p. 102.
: :
7 . . . .
.
374

7 7 ()
.
. : . :( )
7
.
7 W 7 ()

.
: ( )
Milton Friedman : Unemployment versus Inflation?, Occasional Paper No. 44, Institute of Economic
Affairs, London, 1975, and see also : E. S. Phelps: Money Wage Dynamics and Labour Market
Equilibrium, in: E. S. Phelps (ed.) : Microeconomics Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory,
W. W. Norton, New York, 1970.
: ( )
Martin Godfrey: Global Unemployment; the New Chalenge to Economic Theory, Wheatsheaf Books,
LTD, Sussex, 1986, p. 71.
./ 7( )
: ( )
Paul A. Samuelson & William D. Nordhaus, Economics, op.cit., p. 610
7
:
D. E. W. Laidler: The End of demand mangement: How to Reduce Unemployment in the 1970's, in
: Unemployment Versus Inflation, ed. M. Friedman, Occasional Paper, Vol. 44, Institute of Economic
Affairs, London 1975; P. Minford; Unemployment: Cause and Cure, Roberson, London 1983; J. Nickell:
The Effect of Unemployment and related benefits on the duration of Unemployent, in: Economic
Journal, Vol. 83, March 1979; G. Standing: The Notion of Structural Unemployment, in: International
Labour Review, Vol. 122; No.2, March - April, 1983.
375
376
13

:

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Stagflation

7
.
7

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.

Natural n

Knut Wicksell 7
.
7
377
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actual 7
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7 .

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.
7 %

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.

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1 . W 7

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198074
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396

: ( )
Paul A. Samuelson and William Nordhaus; Economics, op. cit., p. 610.
. 7( )
7 ( )
.W7 7
. 7
: ( )
Fredrick Strobel: Britain Goes Down the Path of Income Inequality, in: Challenge, The Magazin of
Economic Affairs, November / December 1995, p. 36.
. 7( )
: 7 ( )
Robert E. Hall: Why is the Unemployment Rate so High at Full Employment? Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity, No.3, 1970; Daniel S. Hamermesh: Jobless Pay and the Economy, John Hopkins
University Press, Baltimore MD, 1977; and see also: Martin S. Feldstein: The Economics of the New
Unemployment, in: Public Interest, No.33 (Fall 1963) and: Lowering the Permanent Rate of
Unemployment, a study prepared for the use of the joint Economic committee, Congress of United
States, Washington D.C., Government Printing Office.
. 7 ( )
: ( )
Milton Friedman: The Role of Monetary Policy, in: American Economic Review, March 1968, p. 117.
: ( )
David Begg, Stanley Fischer and Rudiger Dornbusch: Economics, Fourth Edition, op. cit. p. 473.
. 7( )
: ( )
.
: ( )
David Begg, Stanley Fischer and Rudiger Dornbusch: Economics, op.cit., p.475
:( )
. 7
7 :( ) 7( )

397

.
7 W
.
) ( :
Robert J. Gordon: Understanding Inflation in 1980's, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1985.
) ( : .
) ( 7 .
) ( :
Milton Friedman: Inflation and Unemployment, in: Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No. 3,
June 1977, p. 459.
) ( . Gordon .J
7 n % 7
% W % :
Robert J. Gordon: Recent Developments in the Theory of Inflation and Unemployment, in: Journal
of Monetary Economics, 2/1976.
) ( :
David Begg, Stanley Fischer and Rudiger Dornbusch: Economics, op. cit, p. 475.
) ( :
Fredrick Strobel, Britain Goes Down the Path of Income Inequality..., op.cit., p. 36.
) ( 7 .
) (
7 7 A.
Wolfelsperger :
. :
. 7
.
398
14

) N. Kondratieff (
7 ) .(

W
. 7
W

:
7 / /
/ /
. 7
/ /
/ /
. 7
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399
.
7
7
7
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) C. Juglar (
) (Kitchin 7
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.(
WW
.

... .

n
7
Joseph A. Schumpeter
) (
) (

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7
400
) (
) (
Source: Robert Bekman, The Downwave-Surviving the Second Great Depression (London, Sydney: Pan Books, 1983), p. 87.
) (
) (
)(-

401
7 .

7 ) 7

C. Freeman ().(

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.
.
.
) .(

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b

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7 Entrepeneur .
7 7
7 7 .

.7 7 W

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W 7 .
402
7 7 .
.
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7 W
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7 .
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7 7 .
7 W 7n

.
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7 7
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...

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7 .
405

. 1
.
7 W

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7 7
.
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.
.

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.
7
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. :
7 7 ...
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) .( :
406
7 W7
W
7 ).(
;

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.

:

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7 W 7

7
.
7).(
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7
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.

407
7 ) ( .

7 W ).(
).(

).(

7
.
).(

).(

) .(
W
.
. 7 Gerhard
Mensch :
).(

7 Globalization

; W
7
7
7;
7
408
) .(
) .(
7
) (
) .( W

W
.7

) .(
):(
7
7
7 7

.
7 7

) (
.

.

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) (
7

409

.
7 1
7 7
Re-engineering

7 .
7
) .( 7
:
.
.
.
7

7 .W 7
.

7 ).(

7 ) (
7 )
(

7 )
7 ().(

410
;
7 7
7

7 )(
7 W
.

.
411

) ( .
: .
7 )
W (W 7 .
. 7

7 . W .
7 7 .
.
. .
. .
. 7
. :
/ ./
) ( 7 :
N. D. Kondratieff: Die langen welender konjunktur, in: Archiv fr Socialwissen chaft und Sozialpolitik,
1926.
b :
American Economic Association: Readings in Business Cycles Theory, Blackiston & Co. New York,
1944, pp. 20 - 42.
) (
.
.
W 7
.7
7
... :
Robert Beckman: The Downwave, Surviving the Second Great Depression, Pan Books, London and
Sydney, 1983, p. 86.
)7 ( :
Joseph Kitchin: Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors, in: The Review of Economic Statistics,
Vol. 7. No. 4, November 1925.
412

) ( :
Joseph A. Schumpeter: Business Cycles, McGraw-Hill Books, Co. New York, 1939.
) (
.
Georg Gray: Kondratieff Theory of Long Cycles, in: Review of Economic Statistics, Vol. 25., No. 4.
Nov. 1943; Ronald W. Kaiser: The Kondratieff Cycle, in: The Financial Analysis Journal, MayJune, 1979; pp. 57-66; Ralph Hamil : Is the wave of the Future a Kondratieff? in: The Futurist,
October, 1979, pp. 381-384; Robert C. Beckman,: The Downwave, Surviving the Second Great
Depression, Pan Books, London and Sydney, 1983.
) ( )( 7 W
7
7 . 7
:
C. Freeman, J.Clark and L. Soete: Unemployment and Technical Innovations, Frances Pinter, London,
1982.
) ( : .
.
) ( :
Joseph A. Schumpeter: The Theory of Economic Development (1911), Harvard University Press,
Harvard 1934; Business Cycles, a theoretical , historical and statistical analysis of the capitalist process,
(1933), Mac Graw-Hill, New York, 1964; Capitalism, socialism and Democracy (1943), Georg Allen
& Unwin LTD, London, 1961.
7 .
) ( 7 n
.
)( 7
7 7 7
: .
. ) ( 7
.
) ( : .
.
) ( 7 ./
) ( 7 .
) (7 : .
)7 ( 7 7 .
)7 ( 7 .
413

) ( 7 .
) ( 7 .
) ( 7 .
) ( :
1 7
..
.
7 . :
7 .
W
W . 7 .
) ( : .
) ( 7 .
) ( 7 .
) ( :
Gerhard Mensch: Das technologische Patent Innovationen berwinden die Depression, Frankfurt /
Main, 1975.
) ( :
J. Gershung: After Industerial Society, Macmillan, London, 1978; D. Collingridge: The Social Control
of Technologes, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1980.
) ( : . 7 .
) ( 7 .
) ( :
Paolo Pini: Economic Growth, technical change and employment : emperical evidence for a cumulative
growth model with external causation for nine OECD countries, 1960 - 1990, in: Structural Change
and Economic Dynamics, No. 6/1995, pp. 185 - 213.
) ( : . 7 .
) ( :
A. Heertije: Economics and Technical Change, weidenfeld and Nicolson, London, 1977; C. M. Cooper
and J. Clark: Employment, Economics and Techanology, Wheatsheaf, Brighton, 1972, and see also: G.
Dosi; C. Freeman, R. Nelson, G. Silverberg and L. Soete (eds.): Technical Change and Economic
Theory, Pinter, London, 1988; R. Boyer: New technologies and employment in 1980's : from science
and technology to macroeconomic modelling, in: J. Kregel, E. Matner and A. Roncaglia (eds): Barriers
to Full Employment, Macmillan, London, 1988, pp. 233 - 268.
) ( W
% 7
7 % :
414

Jeremy Rifkin: The End of Work, The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the PostMarket Era, G. P. Putnams Sons, New York, 1995, p. 8.
) ( ) The Pigou Effect (
.n 7 7 Globalization

.
) ( 7
:7 .
)7 ( :
Jeremy Rifkin, The End of Work, .. op.cit, pp. 144-164.
) ( 7
% 7
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415
416
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417
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418

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1988
)(1939 1930
18,2
2,850
38,5

)(1960 1954
5,2
46
0,3
7,7
1,254
3,6

)(1984 1975
Source: P. A. Samuelson and W. Nordhaus, Economics, Fourteenth Edition,

McGraw Hill International Editions, 1992 p.574.
) ( %
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(2 15) !"# $%
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< ;"*1984 1981 /* 0/6 7 :
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)(1
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1981
1,581
1,514
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Source: Paul Wonnacott and Roland Wonnacott, Economics, Third Edition,

McGraw Hill International Editions, 1986, p. 153.
) (
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443

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7 7 % :
M. Harvey Brenner: Estimating the Effects of Economic Change on National Health and Social WellBeing, Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, Washington, June 1984.
n :
Henery R. Reuss: The Critical Decade, MacGraw-Hill Book Company, New York, 1964.
) ( % 7
W 7 :
Harry Maurer: Not Working : An Oral History of the Unemployed, Holt, New York, 1979.
:
.
) ( 7 .
) ( :
Paul Wonnacott and Roland Wonnacott; Economics, op. cit., p. 151 - 152.
) ( 7 W .
) ( 7 :
R. Torres and J. P. Martin: Measuring Potential output in the seven major OECD countries, in OECD
Economic Studies, Spring 1990; G. Adams and D. Coe: A system approach to estimating the natural
rate of unemployment and potential output for the United States, in: IMF Staff Papers, June 1990; A.
S. Englander and A. Gurney: OECD productivity growth: Medium - term trends, in: OECD Economic
Studies, Spring 1994.
) ( :
ILO: World Employment Report 1996/ 97, National Policies in a Global Context, Geneva, 1996, p. 77.
) ( : 7 7 :
n ) ( .
) ( 7 .
) ( 7

444

.W
) ( :
Milton Friedman: The Supply of Money and Changes in Prices and Output, in: Edwin Dean (ed.):
The Controversy over the Quantity Theory of Money, D. C. Heath and Com. Boston, 1965, pp. 87107.
) ( 7 :
Milton Friedman: The Role of Monetary Policy, in: The American Economic Review, Vol. LVIII,
No. 1, March 1968.
) ( 7
7 :
;Thomas J. Hailstones: A Guid to Supply - Side Economics, V. Richmond, Robert F.Dame, Inc, 1982
George Gilder: Wealth and Poverty, New York, 1981.
) ( 7 7 :
.
) ( 7 :
David A. Stockman: The Triumph of Politics, why the Reagan Revolution Faild? Harper and Row,
New York, 1981.
)7 ( :
T. Sargent and N. Wallace: Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation, in: International
Economic Review, June 1973.
) ( :
Paul A. Samuelson and William Nordhous, Economics, op. cit., p. 646.
) ( 7 .
) ( :
R. Entrov: The Rule and Fall of the Philips Curve, in: Problems of Economics, Vol. xxvi, No. 10/
1984.
) ( : :
.
) ( : 7 .
) ( 7 W ) Thorstein Veblen (
7
. 7 7
. . 7 .
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. .
445

7 ()
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J. K. Galbraith: The Affluent Society, Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston, 1969, J.K.Galbraith:
Economics and the Public Purpose, Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston, 1973.
:( )
. / 7
. 7( )
: 7 . : W
Jeremy Rifkin: The End of Work, op. cit, pp. 239 - 248.
.. 7 ()
.
: ( )
Franco Modigliani: The monetarist controvery or, should we forsake stabilization policies? in: The
American Economic Review, March 1977, pp. 1-19, and see also: Franco Modigliani and L. Papademos:
Targets for monetary policy in the coming years, Brookings papers, Washington 1975, Otto Eckstein
and R. Brinner: The Inflation Process in the United States, in: O. Eckstein (ed.) : Parameters and
Policies in The U.S. Economy, Amsterdam, 1976.
: ( )
Franco Modigliani: The monetarist controvery..., op.cit., p.1
: 7 ()
James Tobin: Inflation and Unemployment, in: The American Economic Review, Vol. LXII, No.1,
March 1972, pp. 1 - 18.
7( )
.
. 7 7 7 ()
. ( )
: 7 ()
James Tobin: After disinflation, then what?, in: John Cornwall (ed.): After Stagflation, Alternatives
to Economic Decline. M. E. Sharpe, INC, Armonk, New York, 1984.
: ( )
ILO; World Employment 1996/97, National Policies in a Global Context, Geneva, 1996, pp. 77 - 97.
: 7( )
R. Torres and J. P. Martin: Measuring Potential output in the seven major OECD countries, in:
OECD Economic Studies, Spring 1990; C. Adams and D. Coe: A System Approach to Estimating the
Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States, in IMF Staff Papers, June
1990; D. Coe and K. Krueger: Wage Determination, the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential
446

Output, in: IMF - Occasional Paper No. 75, 1990.
) ( : 7 /
.
) (
. 7
. 7 .
) ( :
D. Soskice: Wage determination and the changing role of institutions in advanced industerialized
countries, in: Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol.6, No. 4, 1990, pp. 36 - 61.
) ( 7 W % W
7
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%
part - time .:
Geremy Rifkin: The End of Work.., op.cit, p. 167.
) ( : 7 /
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7 ?.
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. : W ... .
)7 ( :
W. K. Roche, B. Fynes and T. Morrissey : Working time and employment: A review of international
evidence, in: Internationl Labour Review, ILO, Vol. 135, No. 2, 1996, pp. 129 - 157.
) ( : 7
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Lester C. Thurow: The Future of Capitalism, How Todays Economic Forces shape Tomorrows World,
William Morrow and Company, Inc, New York, 1996, p. 139.
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ILO: World Employment 1996/97... , op.cit., p. 201 - 212.
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United Nations : The Copenhagen Declaration and Programme of Action, World Summit for Social
Development, New York 1995.
) ( .. .
) (
.
) ( :
P. Bailey, A. Parisotto and G. Renshaw: Multinationals and Employment, The Global Economy of the
1990's, ILO, Geneva, 1993, and see also: United Nations: World Investment Report 1995, Transnational
Corporations and Competitiveness, New York and Geneva, 1995.
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World of Work, The Magazine of The ILO, No. 18, December 1996, p. 4.
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ILO: World Employment 1995, op.cit., p.65.
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:
Rising levels of worldwide unemployment and the increasing polarization between rich and poor are
creating the conditions for social upheaval and open class warfare on a scale never before experienced
in the modern age. Crime, random violence, and low-intensity warfare are on the rise and show every
sign of increasing dramatically in the years immediately ahead. A new from of barbarism waits just
outside the walls of the modern world. Beyond the quiet suburbs, exurbs, and urban enclaves of the rich
and near- rich lie millions upon millions of destitute and desperate human beings. Anguished, angry,
and harboring little hope from an escape from their circumstances, they are the potential levelers, the
masses whose cries for justice and inclusion have gone unheard and unaddressed. Their ranks continue
to swell as millions of workers find themselves pink-slipped and suddenly and irrevocably locked
outside the gates of the new hightech global village. See: Jeremy Rifkin; The End of Work., op.cit., p.
290.
: ( )
ILO; World Employment 1996/97, National Policies in a Global Context, op.cit., p. 201 ff.
:( )
United Nations: The Copenhagen Declaration and Programme of Action,...op.cit., pp.79 - 94.
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) ( 7 7
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Rudolph Hilferding: Das Finanz kapital, eine Studie ber die jungste Entwicklung des Kapitalismus,
Dietz Verlag, Berlin, 1955.
457
458
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