DAILY IFOREX REPORT

25TH SEP 2013

HEADLINES

Weekly Forex Trading Forecast: Finding Volatility and Trend Post-Fed

US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Plummets on Fed, but Heres Why it Might not Fall Further
GBP/USD GBP/EUR EUR/USD GBPAUD GBP/CAD GBP/CHF GBP/CZK GBP/DKK GBP/HKD GBP/INR GBP/JPY GBP/NOK GBP/NZD GBP/PLN GBP/SEK GBP/SGD GBP/THB GBP/TRY GBP/ZAR GBP/CNY 1.5990 1.1838 1.3500 1.7022 1.6442 1.4561 30.700 8.8268 12.3927 99.64 158.38 9.4715 1.9291 5.0044 10.2044 2.0042 49.99 3.1893 15.76 9.7620

The US Dollar plummeted against the Euro and other major FX counterparts as the US Federal Reserve disappointed those looking for it to Taper its Quantitative Easing policies, but is it enough to drive the Greenback to further lows?

Euro/US Dollar Look to Risk, PMIs and German Election to Hold 1.3500
There is a considerable amount of event risk for the Euro but as we have learned over the past months and years, it may not be particularly market moving. That can be both a boon and burden for EURUSD as it hovers just above 1.3500.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Yen Would Benefit from Softer US Yields, but FOMC Turned Risk On
The Japanese Yen was a bottom performer over the past week, losing ground quickly from Wednesday forward after the Federal Reserve surprised investors by keeping QE3 in place at its current $85B/month pace.

TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3470 TGT 1.3450/1.3430 SL 1.3500

British Pound Forecast - Pound to Face Limited Correction Amid Shift in BoE Policy Outlook
The British Pound extended the advance from earlier this month as the Bank of England (BoE) struck a more hawkish tone for monetary policy...

SELL USDJPY BELOW 98.60 TGT 98.40/98.20 SL 98.90

Australian Dollar Recovery Faces Evolving Fed QE Speculation

Risks to the recovery of the Australian Dollar will emerge as a busy US economic data and Fed-speak schedule drive the evolution of Fed QE speculation.

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.6000 TGT 1.6020/1.6040 SL 1.5970

 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0002(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>40(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.03(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>45(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>36(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>56(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>59(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date
Mon Sep 23

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

01:45

CNY HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI (SEP) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (SEP P) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (SEP P) CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (AUG) CHF KOF Institute September Economic Forecast EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (SEP A) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (SEP A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (SEP A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (SEP A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (SEP A) USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (AUG) USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (SEP) USD Fed's Lockhart to Speak in New York USD Fed's Dudley to Speak to Fordham Wall Street Council USD Fed's Fisher Speaks in Texas USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (AUG) EUR German IFO Business Climate (SEP) EUR German IFO Current Assessment (SEP) EUR German IFO Expectations (SEP) GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (AUG)

Medium

51.2

50.9

50.1

07:00

Low

49.5

50.1

49.7

07:00

Low

50.7

49.6

48.9

07:00

Low

10.4%

10.8%

07:00

Medium

07:30

Medium

51.3

52.2

51.8

07:30

Medium

54.4

53.0

52.8

08:00

Medium

51.1

51.7

51.4

08:00

Medium

52.1

51.0

50.7

08:00

Medium

52.1

51.8

51.5

12:30

Medium

0.14

-0.05

-0.43

12:58

Medium

54.0

13:20

Low

13:30

Low

17:30

Low

21:00

Low

Tue Sep 24

05:00

Low

-0.5%

08:00

Medium

108.0

107.5

08:00

Medium

112.6

112.0

08:00

Medium

104.0

103.3

08:30

Medium

38000

37200

12:30

CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (JUL) USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (JUL) USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUL) USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (JUL) USD House Price Index (MoM) (JUL) USD Fed's Pianalto Speaks on Payment Systems in Chicago USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (SEP) USD Consumer Confidence (SEP) USD Fed's George Delivers Introductory Remarks in Chicago NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (AUG) NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (AUG) NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (AUG) NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (AUG) JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (AUG) EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (AUG) EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

Medium

0.5%

-0.6%

12:30

Low

0.6%

-0.8%

13:00

Low

0.8%

0.9%

13:00

Low

12.5%

12.1%

13:00

Low

159.54

13:00

Medium

0.9%

0.7%

13:30

Low

14:00

Low

14

14:00

High

80.3

81.5

17:00

Low

22:45

Medium

-700M

-774M

22:45

Low

3.54B

3.85B

22:45

Low

4.30B

4.62B

22:45

Medium

-1550M

-1688M

23:50

Low

0.5%

0.4%

Wed Sep 25

Low

0.1%

0.3%

Low

-3.7%

-2.6%

01:00

AUD DEWR Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (AUG) JPY Small Business Confidence (SEP) CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (AUG) EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (OCT) JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (AUG F) GBP CBI Reported Sales (SEP) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (SEP 20)

Low

0.7%

05:00

Medium

49.7

06:00

Medium

1.41

06:00

Medium

6.9

06:00

Medium

-1.8%

10:00

Low

24

27

11:00

Medium

11.2%

12:30

USD Durable Goods Orders (AUG) USD Durables Ex Transportation (AUG) USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (AUG) USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (AUG) USD New Home Sales (AUG) USD New Home Sales (MoM) (AUG) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (SEP 20) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (SEP 20) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (SEP 20) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (SEP 20) USD Household Change in Net Worth (2Q) AUD Job vacancies (SEP) EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (AUG) EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (AUG) GBP Current Account (Pounds) (2Q) GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F) GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q F) GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) (2Q F) GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (2Q F) USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 20) USD Continuing Claims (SEP 13) USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q T) USD Personal Consumption (2Q T) USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q T)

High

-0.1%

-7.3%

12:30

Medium

1.1%

-0.6%

12:30

Low

1.2%

-3.3%

12:30

Low

-1.5%

14:00

Low

425K

394K

14:00

Medium

7.9%

-13.4%

14:30

Low

-4368K

14:30

Low

-861K

14:30

Low

-1627K

14:30

Low

-1079K

16:00

Low

$3003B

Thu Sep 26

01:30

Low

-7.3%

08:00

Low

2.2%

2.2%

08:00

Low

2.3%

2.5%

08:30

Low

-10.0B

-14.5B

08:30

Medium

0.7%

0.7%

08:30

High

1.5%

1.5%

08:30

Low

0.9%

0.9%

08:30

Low

-3.5%

-3.5%

12:30

Medium

309K

12:30

Low

2787K

12:30

Medium

2.7%

2.5%

12:30

Medium

1.8%

1.8%

12:30

Medium

0.8%

0.8%

12:30

USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q T) USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (AUG) USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (AUG) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (SEP 20) USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (SEP) USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Minnesota EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks in New York GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (SEP) JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG) JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG) JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (SEP) JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (SEP) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (SEP 20) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (SEP 20) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (SEP 20) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (SEP 20) USD Fed's George Speaks on Economy in Denver CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (AUG) CNY MNI September Business Sentiment Indicator EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F) EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q F) CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (SEP)

Medium

0.8%

14:00

Low

-1.0%

-1.3%

14:00

Medium

8.6%

14:30

Low

46

15:00

Low

16:15

Low

22:15

Low

23:05

Medium

-11

-13

23:30

High

0.8%

0.7%

23:30

High

0.7%

0.7%

23:30

High

-0.1%

-0.1%

23:30

Low

0.5%

0.5%

23:30

Low

0.3%

0.4%

23:30

Low

-0.3%

-0.4%

23:50

Medium

921.6B

23:50

Medium

-50.2B

23:50

Low

112.8B

23:50

Low

153.5B

Fri Sep 27

01:15

Low

01:30

Medium

11.1%

01:45

Low

06:45

Low

0.5%

0.5%

06:45

Low

0.3%

0.3%

07:00

Medium

1.36

08:30

GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (JUL) GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (SEP) EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (SEP) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (SEP) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (SEP F) EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (SEP) USD Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy in Oslo EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (SEP P) EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP P) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (SEP P) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (SEP P) CAD Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (JUL) USD Fed's Rosengren to Give Opening Remarks at Conference in NY USD Personal Income (AUG) USD Personal Spending (AUG) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (AUG) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (AUG) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (AUG) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (AUG) USD U. of Michigan Confidence (SEP F) USD Fed's Evans Discusses Economy on Panel in Oslo

Low

0.5%

0.0%

08:30

Low

0.6%

0.6%

09:00

Low

-0.09

-0.21

09:00

Medium

95.9

95.2

09:00

Medium

-7

-7.9

09:00

Medium

09:00

Medium

-5

-5.3

09:45

Low

12:00

Medium

0.0%

0.0%

12:00

High

1.5%

1.5%

12:00

Medium

0.1%

0.0%

12:00

High

1.6%

1.6%

12:30

Low

2.6%

12:30

Low

12:30

Medium

0.4%

0.1%

12:30

Medium

0.3%

0.1%

12:30

Low

0.1%

0.1%

12:30

Low

1.2%

1.4%

12:30

Low

0.1%

0.1%

12:30

Medium

1.2%

1.2%

13:55

Medium

78.0

76.8

14:15

Low

18:00

USD Fed's Dudley to Speak on the Economy in Syracuse, NY

Low

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