Chng 4

Quyt nh u t di hn ca doanh nghip

Mc tiu
Nm c khi nim u t di hn v

phn loi u t Bit cch xc nh dng tin ca d n Cc phng php thm nh d n u t, u, nhc im ca tng phng php Bi tp thc hnh

Ni dung
I. Tng quan v u t di hn

II. Xc nh dng tin ca d n III. Thm nh ti chnh d n u t IV. Bi tp

I. Tng quan v u t di hn
Khi nim
u t di hn ca doanh nghip l qu trnh hat ng s dng vn hnh thnh nn cc ti sn cn thit nhm mc ch ti a ha gi tr doanh nghip trong khong thi gian di trong tng lai.
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Phn loi
Theo c cu vn u t
u t xy dng c bn: u t cho xy lp u t cho thit b u t xy dng c bn khc u t v vn lu ng rng u t lin doanh v u t v ti sn ti chnh
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Phn loi
Theo mc tiu u t
u t u t xut u t u t hnh thnh doanh nghip cho vic tng nng lc sn thay i thit b ra bn ngoi

Phn loi
Theo mi quan h gia cc d n u t D n c lp D n ph thuc D n loi tr

Cc bc ra quyt nh u t di hn
1. a ra xut v d n u t 2. Xc nh dng tin ca d n u t 3. Xc nh t l chit khu 4. Thm nh d n u t 5. nh gi d n sau khi kt thc
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II. Xc nh dng tin ca d n u t 1. Khi nim dng tin Dng tin ca d n c hiu l cc khon chi v thu k vng xut hin ti cc mc thi gian khc nhau trong sut chu k ca d n.
Dng tin rng= Dng tin vo Dng tin ra

Dng tin vo c coi l dng tin dng Dng tin ra c coi l dng tin m
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2. Cc nguyn tc xc nh dng tin

Nguyn tc da trn c s dng tin thun Nguyn tc xc nh dng tin trn c s sau thu Nguyn tc xc nh dng tin trn c s thu nhp tng thm Nguyn tc s dng dng tin cha tr li vay

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Nguyn tc da trn c s dng tin thun (Net Cash Flow)

Dng tin thun = Dng tin vo Dng tin ra

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Nguyn tc xc nh dng tin trn c s sau thu (After tax cash flow) V u t ban u ca mt d n i hi chi ph bng tin mt sau thu nn thu nhp t d n cng phi c xc nh cng n v, tc l dng tin sau thu.

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Dng tin c tnh ton trn c s tng thm (incremental cash flow- relevant cash flow)

Dng tin tng thm = Dng tin c d n - Dng tin khng c d n

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Dng tin c tnh ton trn c s tng thm (incremental cash flow- relevant cash flow) V d: DN X ang vn hnh mt chic my c tui th k vng l 4 nm. Thu nhp thun c tnh ca my l 12.000 USD/nm, gi tr ca my thi im hin ti l 6.000 USD v gi tr cn li ca my thi im kt thc nm th 4 bng 0. Hin DN ang xem xt mua mt my mi, thay th cho my trn. Tui th ca my mi l 4 nm. Thu nhp thun ca my mi l 15.000 USD/nm. Gi bn hin ti ca my mi l 30.000 USD v gi tr cn li cui nm th 4 l 0
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Dng tin c tnh ton trn c s tng thm (incremental cash flow- relevant cash flow)
Nm 0 Nm 1 My mi My c Dng tin tng thm Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4

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Xem xt mt s chi ph khi tnh dng tin tng thm

Chi ph chung Chi ph chm Chi ph c hi

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Chi ph chung
l nhng chi ph hat ng khng lin quan trc tip n bt c dch v hay sn phm c th no ca doanh nghip, bao gm: chi ph qun l chung, chi ph hnh chnh, tin thu mt bng, in, nc

ch nn hch ton vo mt d n u t nu chng xy ra do h qu trc tip ca d n .

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Chi ph chm
Chi ph khng thay i nu chng ta u t vo d n hay khng. khng c php a vo khi tnh ton dng tin..

V d: Mt cng ty b ra 100 triu nghin cu tnh kh thi ca mt d n. Chi ph nghin cu tnh kh thi c coi l chi ph chm v n phi c thanh ton cho d d n c c chp thun hay khng v chi ph ny cng khng nh hng n vic chp thun hay t chi d n hoc phn tch dng tin.
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Chi ph c hi
Chi ph c hi ca mt ti sn l gi tr hin gi cao nht dng tin thun c th to ra t ti sn nu d n u t khng s dng n.

c tnh nh chi ph u t

DN s hu mt bi xe v d nh bin n thnh mt nh my lp rp t. D n xy dng nh my i hi khon u t ban u l 50 t VN v k vng to ra dng tin mi vi thu nhp mi nm 14 t trong thi gian 6 nm. DN phi tnh n chi ph c hi ca l t. Nu d n u t xy dng nh my khng trin khai th doanh nghip c th s dng l t cho thu vi khon thu nhp d tnh l 200 triu VN mi nm. Do , chi ph c hi ca l t l gi tr hin ti ca vic cho thu l t trong thi gian 6 nm. 19

Chi ph c hi
n v: triu ng

Nm 0 Dng tin hot ng

Nm 1

Nm 2

Nm 3

Nm 4

Nm 5

Nm 6

Chi ph c hi Dng tin rng

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3. Cch xc nh dng tin ca d n

u t ban u Dng tin hot ng Dng tin khi kt thc d n

0 u t ban u

n Kt thc d n
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Dng tin hot ng

Dng tin u t ban u (nm 0)

Dng tin u t ban u (nm 0) = - Mua thit b, ti sn di hn - Gia tng vn lu ng rng ban u + Dng tin thanh l Ti sn

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Lu
Xc nh vn lu ng rng
Vn lu ng rng l mc chnh lch gia ti sn ngn hn v cc khon n ngn hn. c tnh ca vn lu ng rng l n khng c khu hao v thng c thu hi khi d n kt thc. Bi vy nhng d n m rng thng i hi phi u t bng vn lu ng trong nhng nm u v thu hi nhng khon u t ny khi d n hon thnh. Vic tng vn lu ng rng c coi l mt khan u t, do c coi l mt dng tin m; Vic gim vn lu ng rng c coi l dng tin dng.
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Xc nh vn lu ng rng
Gi s mt d n u t i hi mt khon u t ban u l 120 triu VN cho nh xng, thit b v k vng to ra khon thu nhp hng nm l 40 triu VN trong thi gian 5 nm. Nh cu vn lu ng ca d n nh sau:

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Xc nh vn lu ng rng
Tnh hung Khng c d n C d n Ring d n Tiu thc Nm 0 1. TSNH 2. N NH 3. VLR 4. TSNH 5. N NH 6. VLR 7. NC VL 8. Tng VL
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Nm 1 60 32 74 41

Nm 2 60 32 74 41

Nm 3 60 32 74 41

Nm 4 60 32 74 41

Nm 5 60 32 60 32

60 32 70 39

Xc nh vn lu ng rng

Tiu thc Dng tin hot ng VLR Dng tin rng

Nm 0 (150) 3

Nm 1 40 2

Nm 2 40 0

Nm 3 40 0

Nm 4 40 0

Nm 5 40 (5)

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Dng tin hot ng

(nm 1- nm n -1)

= Li nhun rng
+ Khu hao + Li vay -/+ Thay i Vn lu ng rng

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Dng tin kt thc d n

(nm n)

=
+

Dng tin hot ng rng (nu c) Dng tin t thanh l ti sn

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Lu
TH1: Bn 1 ti sn bng vi gi tr s sch: Khng nh hng g n thu. (Gi tr s sch bng nguyn gi ban u tr khi khu hao tch ly)
Dng tin t thanh l ti sn = Thu nhp t vic thanh l ti sn

TH2: Bn 1 ti sn vi gi thp hn gi tr s sch: Gi d ti sn thanh l ny c dng trong sn xut th khon l ny c th c xem nh mt khon l t hat ng hay b tr cho thu nhp t hat ng. Khon l ny thc t lm gim mc thu m cng ty phi np bng vi s tin l nhn vi thu sut TNDN.
29 Dng tin t thanh l ti sn= Thu nhp t vic thanh l ti sn + Khon gim tr thu t vic bn l

Lu
TH3: Bn 1 ti sn vi gi cao hn gi tr s sch: Phn chnh lch s c coi nh mt khon thu nhp t hat ng v phi tnh thu TNDN. Dng tin t thanh l ti sn = Thu nhp t vic thanh l TS Thu TNDN phi np Thu TNDN = Thu nhp chu thu x Thu sut Thu nhp chu thu = Gi nhp t vic thanh l TS- Gi tr s sch

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III. THM NH TI CHNH D N U T

1. Gi tr hin ti rng (NPV) 2. T sut hon vn ni b (IRR) 3. T sut hon vn ni b c iu chnh (MIRR) 4. Ch s li nhun (PI) 5. Thi gian hon vn (PP)

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Gi tr hin ti rng (Net present Value)

Gi tr hin ti rng l s chnh lch gia gi tr hin ti ca dng tin k vng ca d n tr khon chi ph ban n u.

NPV= -CFo +

CFt n t 1 (1 k )

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Gi tr hin ti rng (Net present Value)

ngha NPV th hin gi tr tng thm ca khon u t c tnh n yu t gi tr thi gian ca tin t v bao hm c yu t ri ro ca u t. NPV dng??? NPV m???

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Gi tr hin ti rng (Net present Value)

S dng NPV lm tiu ch u t D n c lp Nu NPV> 0: Chp thun d n Nu NPV< 0: Lai b d n Nu NPV= 0: ty D n loi tr NPV max > 0
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Gi tr hin ti rng (Net present Value)

V d: Mt DN mun trang b mt dy chuyn sn xut. C hai ngh t hai nh ch to. Nh ch to A cho gi bn mt dy chuyn sn xut vi gi 300 triu VN, d tnh mang li cho cng ty khon thu nhp 72 triu VN/nm trong thi gian 6 nm. Nh ch to B a ra gi bn dy chuyn l 420 triu VN. Tuy nhin dy chuyn ny s dng t lao ng, chi ph qun l chung thp hn dy chuyn A v thu nhp hng nm l 103 triu VN trong thi gian 6 nm. Chi ph s dng vn ca doanh nghip l 10%/nm.
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Gi tr hin ti rng (Net present Value)

D n A
Nm Dng tin PVF PV NPV
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0 (300)

1 72

2 72

3 72

4 72

5 72

6 72

Gi tr hin ti rng (Net present Value)

D n B
Nm Dng tin PVF PV NPV 0 (420) 1 103 2 103 3 103 4 103 5 103 6 103

Kt lun:

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Gi tr hin ti rng (Net present Value)

u im
Xt n gi tr thi gian ca tin t Xt n ri ro ca d n Xt n quy m ca d n Tnh n ton b dng tin ca d n Ph hp vi mc tiu ti a ha gi tr ca ch s hu

Nhc im
Khng th a ra kt qu la chn nu cc d n khng ng nht v mt thi gian cng khi xp hng u tin trong vic la chn cc d n u t khi ngun vn ca doanh nghip b gii hn (s nghin cu k hn) Vic xc nh t l chit khu ca d n (chi ph s dng vn) khng n gin
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T sut hon vn ni b (Internal Return Rate)

T sut hon vn ni b l li sut chit khu m ti NPV ca d n bng 0.

CFt - CFo + n = 0 t 1 (1 k )
=0

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T sut hon vn ni b (Internal Return Rate)

Khi nim
T sut hon vn ni b l li sut chit khu m ti NPV ca d n bng 0.

ngha:
IRR o lng t l hon vn ca mt d n u t v cng c s dng lm tiu chun xem xt d n. IRR chnh l kh nng sinh li ch thc ca bn thn d n.IRR ch thay i khi cc yu t ni ti, tc gi tr cc dng ngn lu thay i. Nh vy khi NPV = 0, khng c ngha l d n khng li hiu qu no m l khi NPV=0 th d n mang li cho ng vn ca bn mt sut sinh li bng IRR.
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T sut hon vn ni b (Internal Return Rate)

S dng IRR lm tiu ch u t D n c lp Nu IRR > k : chp thun d n Nu IRR < k : Lai b d n Nu IRR= k : ty D n loi tr IRR max > k
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T sut hon vn ni b (Internal Return Rate)

V d: Cng ty Phng Nam d nh mua mt dy chuyn may cng nghip vi tng gi tr chi ph ban u l 200.000 USD. D kin mi nm cng ty thu c 78.000 USD t dy chuyn ny. Trong sut thi gian 4 nm.

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T sut hon vn ni b (Internal Return Rate)

Cng thc 1

FVF 2 FVF 0 I RR k 0 ( k 2 k 1) k 1 FVF 2 FVF 1

IRR= K0= 2,5887-2,5641/ 2.5887-2.4936 (22-20) + 20 = 20.5%

Cng thc 2 IRR= k1 +

NPV (k 2 k1) NPV 1 NPV 2

IRR= 20 + 1600x 2 / ( 1600+4500)= 20,5%

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T sut hon vn ni b (Internal Return Rate)

Cng ty Phng Nam d tnh nhp khu mt my nghin xy dng vi tng chi ph ban u l 6000 USD, dng tin thu nhp d kin ca my ny l Nm Dng tin 0 (6000) 1 2500 2 1640 3 4800

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T sut hon vn ni b (Internal Return Rate)

u im
Xt n gi tr thi gian ca tin t Xt n ri ro ca d n Tnh n ton b dng tin ca d n D dng so snh vi chi ph s dng vn ca DN v kh nng b p chi ph s dng vn ca d n so vi ri ro ca n

Nhc im
D n vay hay cho vay Khng xc nh c IRR hoc IRR a tr Khng tnh n quy m ca d n

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T sut hon vn ni b (Internal Return Rate)

D n vay hay cho vay D n CF0 CF1 IRR NPV

(1000)

1500

1000

(1500)
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T sut hon vn ni b (Internal Return Rate)

IRR a tr hoc khng th xc nh c Nm Dng tin 0 (100) 1 230 2 (132) IRR

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T sut hon vn ni b (Internal Return Rate)

IRR khng xt n quy m ca d n
Nm A 0 (1000) 1 1400 IRR NPV

(10000)

14000

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T sut ni hon iu chnh (Modified Internal Return Rate)

MIRR l t sut sinh li d kin ca mt d n vi gi nh l cc dng tin to ra trong cc nm ca d n c ti u t vi chi ph bng chi ph s dng vn ca doanh nghip.

CFo

CF1(1 k )

n 1

CF 2(1 k ) n (1 MIRR)

n2

.... CFn

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T sut ni hon iu chnh ( Modified Internal Return Rate)

ngha: MIRR khc phc nhc im ca IRR l gi nh cc dng tin c ti u t vi chi ph bng chnh t l IRR. ph hp vi mc tiu ca ch s hu

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T sut ni hon iu chnh (Modified Internal Return Rate)

V d: Mt d n c u t ban u l 10.000 USD v d nh to ra mt dng tin 3.000 USD lin tc trong vng 5 nm ca d n. Chi ph s dng vn: 10%
Nm Dng tin 0 1 2 3000 3 3000 4 3000 5 3000

(10000) 3000

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Ch s li nhun (Profitibility Index)

Ch s li nhun (PI) l gi tr hin gi ca nhng khon thu nhp ca d n u t chia cho khon u t ban u.

PI= PV/P= (NPV+P)/P

PI l thc o kh nng sinh li ca d n u t, c tnh n yu t thi gian ca tin t.
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Ch s li nhun (Profitibility Index)

S dng PI lm tiu ch u t D n c lp PI > 1: Chp nhn d n PI < 1: loi b PI = 1: Ty D n loi tr PI max > 1
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Ch s li nhun (Profitibility Index)

u im
Ging NPV Xem xt theo t ld so snh nh gi cc d n khi ngn sch b gii hn

Nhc im
Khng nh gi trc tip quy m ca cc d n loi tr nhau

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Xp hng cc d n khi gii hn v ngn sch

Nm D n 1 D n 2 D n 3

0 (20) (10) (10)

1 70 15 5

2 10 40 60

NPV
(k=10%)

PI

-nh gi d n trong trng hp: Cc d n c lp, DN khng b gii hn v vn Cc d n c lp, DN b gii hn vn l 20

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Thi gian hon vn (payback period)

Thi gian hon vn ca d n l di thi gian thu hi y cc khon u t ban u ca d n.
T= Nm ngay trc nm hon vn + S tin cn thiu/Dng tin sau nm hon vn

D n c PP nh hn hoc bng PP gc c chp thun v ngc li.

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Thi gian hon vn (payback period) u im

n gin, d tnh ton

Nhc im
Khng xem xt ton b dng tin Khng tnh n yu t thi gian v ri ro Khng nht qun vi mc tiu ca ch s hu

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Thi gian hon vn (payback period)

Nm
Khng xt n ton b dng tin ca d n

0 1 2 3 PP NPV

D n D n A B 5000 5000 5000 2000 1000 2 5000 5000 5000 2

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Thi gian hon vn (payback period)

Nm

D n A

D n B

0
Khng xt n Gi tr thi gian Ca tin t

5000 3000 2000 1000 3

2000 3000 5000 1000 3

1 2 3 PP NPV

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Ra quyt nh trong trng hp mu thun gia NPV v IRR i vi d n u t c lp

C NPV v IRR u dn ti cng quyt nh chp thun hay t chi mt d n. S d xy ra tnh trng ny l do nu NPV > 0 th t l chit khu m NPV= 0 phi ln hn t l hon vn cn thit k. Bi vy nu NPV > 0 th IRR > k. Tng t nh vy, nu IRR> k th khi dng tin c chit khu t l k v tt yu NPV > 0.
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Ra quyt nh trong trng hp mu thun gia NPV v IRR i vi d n loi tr nhau: xut hin mu thun gia NPV v IRR do
S khc bit v ln hay quy m u t S khc nhau v kiu dng tin S khc nhau v nhng h qu ca phng php NPV v IRR lin quan n t l ti u t

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Ra quyt nh trong trng hp mu thun gia NPV v IRR

S khc bit v ln hay quy m u t
D n Nm 0 A B (10000) (20000) Nm 1 5917 11834 Nm 2 5917 11834 NPV (k= 8%) IRR

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Ra quyt nh trong trng hp mu thun gia NPV v IRR

S khc bit v kiu dng tin

D n C D C-D

Nm 0

Nm 1

Nm 2 4000 5300 1300

Nm 3 4000 4000 0

NPV IRR (k= 8%)

(10000) 4000 (12000) 5000 (2000) 1000

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