1

20

1109
20071170
310

1711

81718
3100

17203
3301050
1720

90

80
1992
87 8001991
/600/83%
73.6%40%

70%

1996 1988 1350/19911400/1992
5000/19937500/4
1993623
16

600160018834800
30019992006

2
1979

1979-1981
21.5% 17%
198020%1973513005
19826120

1982
17%

19828


19821211989
23001

1989

1/21/4
6000

8000/

16000/
16000/

40

30%1920

19201929387
739193075%90%80%75%

192919291933
85%82%78%69%
1%

70%
915015000100000

GDP
2007
312070 GDP 220000 GDP
1.5%20%80%

2004
11.05
1.41.752.04.08.0
0.05 5%
2.95

700
30 700400300
10

1
1984 1000 19859
55

250
11201

1985
1965150
65%6%
1975150
1978
198538%
26%
19785000

198710
2.5%

2
40%
90% 1989122938915
6
1970619916200010
120080
70%

1989531990
8 4.25%6.0%

2
300

31989
5%2%

1985

1991
15%20%
19923
1501/3

4
1993
19934

 199311208
1100 19947

19619954
180

21
1210
20 1994
1995

19863501992180
1250199518010

19956 150
400000 4000
10000001198010000100
0.5%100

5
1985919862201989
6801980199022718051988
1990827 .5%
107

1987
8%


1989 45%

1988
12601989121019901080
198710.8%19885.6%19901.8%

8%

19928110000 199341300001994
150000

2006
834921.7
GDP 40%

198311
19761.97
1985535
8188010002000

198410001000

3000
19851989
23750 8090
90
7 000 80
1989
13.73 14
80%

88050%

18161914
1914

1922

400(1700)
2150012
1933

()

2020

4
19447 144

194560%
2001948

2
1928 -
90%

19311931

193192030%

2030

19718
15

1
19601041.5/18.57%

1961117

27000 3000
2500 1000

35.2035.20
21
131963

2060
19671110
900
19683

35
1968
93001968317
351

3
197115.5%19715815

194774
130
46%16%19%14%

1954
7
10727
1956625

1956726

195610

15%1957
11612
1948

206035/

1962

1963

1965

2060
5%
678
102
84.5%

197112
100
7.89%
38
2.25%19731
10%42.22

-
1

1001901

1860
191317

1948,
,

(
)

2003

CNN
CNN

1990

2
182319
18981
20001898

1900
13.2% 23.6%6.8%
188819181897
1899
19021914

2001916

19161212
1218

191746

1928 1938
7.5

19431

1941
1027
14

1-21950

30%198067%

18031500

19641966

63
20

3
60

GDP
2019581980
4
1979

3
30%40%

GDP

4
1971

1973
1

19703

1973123.011
10.65119701.9/4

198034
1979
1/3

1979
11.2%198120%21.5%17.3%
12%12 17%

19731982
IMF
1987
13000


1978

19791227

1980

CIA

1985
121/4
1985
113012

19833

7%8%17%17%
1983


30%
1985
1985
1990150300

199112
200 199010
285014001400

275000

IFM
GDP

6
7080

1985

2.5%

1992

7
70
17%
70

199221712

12.95

12.95

12.9512.85812.80
12.778
9
15%
2.778
2692.7%
2.703

7060
5
201010

1994

1996
230237

300

20%40

19977
30%50%70%30%
60%1000
IMF IMF

19971998
1/3230
19901995

8%

IMF

9
19841997
12 1997
1200016800711

19988

56460

13660014
8

8
89814

281200287800
9

10
1999

11

1
1985 19861/3

270
34/12/
100200

31650020022864
50

101
10111015
1000020002000
200020000200004000

8790

49

2
1
2080

19802006
3700000 GDP 8

1980

2090
21 911
4256.5%1%

2003~2006
2006
5001.11.2
20052006
175.25%

20072
14.1%1.1
1.240002006 GDP 15

CDO ,

CDO AAA

SPV
CDO CDO 3A
CDO
CDO CDO
, CDO CDO

CDO CDO CDO

CDO CDO CDO

15 ,
CDO

(31%)(22%)(10%)
(19%)(18%)1UBS
900

CDO CDO
CDSCDS
CDO CDO

CDO CDO
CDS CDS
CDO
CDS CDS
CDO

CDS

 CDO
CDO
CDO CDS CDO
CDO CDO CDO
CDO

CDO CDO

CDO ABX
CDO ABX ABX
ABX

4010
CDS ABX
CDS ABX
ABX

:,

CDO CDS

GDP

100

1998

2007

1.5

100%

1
240

13.870%2.5%
0.3%1920
550%60%
42005.5
14%12
303004002025
4835

2
11010

100
10
70010

321
1.84
2500

41300

5



20%30%
50%
6

1/450

2
267.427%18471
41

1.31/3200
40%668400

1
3302301 GDP 28.8
80%10
1/31/3
100% 11% 12%
90%
1200~140020032158.72002
12%14.7%2020
21001

31.2100-150
2000420
11020003000

640156
9723838915%20%10%-15%
20 :
8
5% GDP 3%20
900.5% GDP
20
20500
300020
70100
GDP 15%9%
15%
2005301179

3
60
6

2060

100

CEO

( )

80
IBM
IBM

22%78%

10%
20%50%100%300%

95 2008414