1-1

statistical
.inference


.

.


.


) .(Population


....

)(

: ) (census


) ( .


.
: ) (Sampling method

) (Sample
.
/



.



.

1-2

:
-1


.
-2













..

.
-3 )(


.
-4

..

.
/

 1-3


.

1-3-1




.



..
.

)( Simple random sample :

.

.


.

) (
) (Frame
.

)( Systematic sample :

. 2000
100

2000

= 20 = 100
) (1 20
14
34
.1994 1974 . 54

.


.

)( Stratified random sample :

)(

)
( .

)

( .


.

)( clustered sample :

.
.



..

..

.

 1-3-2 :


...
:

)( Purposive sample :

.




)
( ...


..


.

- .
.

)( Quota sample :

)

( ...


)

100
20 45
35 ..


.

.. )
(

.
..

.

1-4

:

1-4-1


..
) (

.



) (
)(

.

1-4-2


..

.

 1-5

)Parameters of
(population
)(Statistics



..


..
.



x
S.

1-5-1 :

Sampling Distributions

n

...


.

n

n . ...

1-5-2 :

Sampling Distributions of Means

n

X

)(4-1

) ) N ( , 2

 X

/ n
)(4-2

2
n

X ~ N ( ,

) X ~ N ( , 2

)(4-3

) N ( 0 ,1

)n ( x

= z

X

n ) ( n 30
)(4-4

as

) N ( 0 ,1

)n ( x

= z

Central Limit
Theorem
X

2
n

2 ,

.
n ) (3 -4
.
X 1
1
1 X 2
2
2

)(4-5

12 22
+
n1 n2

=
)

2
( x1 x 2

and

( x x2 ) = 1 2

n1 , n 2 .
) ( x 1 x 2
) (5 -4

)(4-6

) N ( 0 ,1

) ( x1 x 2 ) ( 1 2

12
2
+ 2
n1
n2

=z

) ( x1 x 2
/

 n1 , n 2
) ( x1 x 2
) (6 -4 .

1-5-3 :

Sampling Distribution of The

Variance

x)2

(x
=

n1

2
4
)(4-7

4 2
n1

= 2S
2

S = 2

and

4 = 3 2
2

2
s2 =
n 1

)(4-8

S 2

n ) . ( n 100
( n 1 ) s 2 / 2
2 . n 1
)(4-9

) 2( n 1

( n 1) s2
2

)(4-10

y>0

ey/2

v 1
2

= )f ( y

v



) ( . v
v 2v

E ( y ) =y =v

V ( y ) = 2 = 2v

)(4-11
s12 n1
2
) N ( 1 , 1 s 22
/

2
n2 ) N ( 2 , 2
:
2
2
s1 /
1
~
) F ( n1 1 , n2 1
)(4-12
2
s2 / 2

) F ( n1 1 , n2 1 F
n2 1 y F
v 1 , v 2 :
n1 1

, y>0

)(4-13

v1 + v 2
2

v1

y2

) (v 1 y + v 2

= )f ( y

) (13 -4
2

. v1 , v 2
X n
, 2
) N ( 0,1

)n( x

=z

)n ( x
S

t t student n 1
)(4-14

) t( n 1

)n( x
s

=t

t v :
)(4-15

v +1
2
(1+ t ) 2
v

= ) f (t

y
) N (0,1

.
2
X 2 S 1
n1 1 X 2 S 22
n2
2

10

)(4-16

)~ t ( n1 + n2 2

( n1 1) S 12 + ( n 2 1) S 22

n1 + n 2 2

) ( X 2 X 2 ) ( 1 2
1
n2

1
n1

Sp

=t

2
= S p

.The Pooled Variance

11