Clayton Caraway

Myles Brumfield
Isabelle Ding
Sara Delahaya

North Carolina Lay of the Land
Urban, suburban, rural
o Rural: The Rural Center serves 85 of the state's counties. Of these, 80
have an average population density of 250 per square mile or less, as
of the 2010 Census. Five rural transitional counties have higher
population densities but still retain significant rural characteristics.


Population size and composition (NC 4)
o North Carolina has a semi-closed primary system. In a partisan
primary, voters who are affiliated with a political party may only vote
the partisan ballot for the party for which they are affiliated; they are
closed from voting in another partys primary. Unaffiliated voters may
vote in any one recognized partys primary
.
# of regist. voters (2013) 6,474,667 Percentage
Democrats 2,763,885 43%
Republicans 1,990,056 31%
Libertarian 22,173 <1%
Unaffiliated 1,698,544 26%
o



o
# regist. voters 6,474,667 Percentage
White 4,596,477 76%
Black 1,354,976 23%
Hispanic 68,053 1%
o
# regist. voters 6,474,667 Percentage
Male 2,920,194 46%
Female 3,476,083 54%
o
# regist. Voters 6,474,667 Percentage
Age 18-25 802,487 13%
Age 26-40 1,613,029 25%
Age 41-65 2,871,950 44%
Age over 65 1,187,202 18%
43%
31%
0%
26%
Number of registered
voters in 2013
Democrats
Republicans
Libertatian
Unaffiliated
76%
23%
1%
Ethinicity Distribution
White
Black
Hispanic
46%
54%
Gender Distribution
Males Female



o


Registered Republicans by County

ALAMANCE- 31,215
ALEXANDER- 10,601
ALLEGHANY- 2,337
ANSON- 2,376
ASHE- 7,808
AVERY- 7,297
BEAUFORT- 10,159
BERTIE- 1,415
BLADEN- 2,965
BRUNSWICK- 30,699
BUNCOMBE- 47,299
BURKE- 20,068
CABARRUS- 46,337
CALDWELL- 23,797
CAMDEN- 2,031
CARTERET- 20,811
CASWELL- 3,407
CATAWBA- 43,804
CHATHAM- 11,967
CHEROKEE- 8,864
CHOWAN- 2,547
CLAY- 3,391
CLEVELAND- 19,028
COLUMBUS- 6,177
CRAVEN- 23,242
13%
25%
44%
18%
Age Distribution
18-25 26-40 41-65 65 and over



CUMBERLAND- 47,862
CURRITUCK- 5,843
DARE- 8,179
DAVIDSON- 47,771
DAVIE- 14,807
DUPLIN- 7,474
DURHAM- 27,759
EDGECOMBE- 6,087
FORSYTH- 76,075
FRANKLIN- 12,062
GASTON- 50,837
GATES- 1,546
GRAHAM- 2,822
GRANVILLE- 8,685
GREENE- 1,901
GUILFORD- 95,394
HALIFAX- 4,438
HARNETT- 23,450
HAYWOOD- 12,187
HENDERSON- 30,608
HERTFORD- 1,463
HOKE- 6,307
HYDE- 497
IREDELL- 45,288
JACKSON- 6,624
JOHNSTON- 41,809
JONES- 1,675
LEE- 9,898
LENOIR- 9,357
LINCOLN- 22,015
MACON- 9,851
MADISON- 4,263
MARTIN- 3,179
MCDOWELL- 10,138
MECKLENBURG- 171,919
MITCHELL- 7,282
MONTGOMERY- 4,614
MOORE- 26,162
NASH- 19,173
NEW HANOVER- 50,997



NORTHAMPTON- 1,357
ONSLOW- 33,366
ORANGE- 17,391
PAMLICO- 2,755
PASQUOTANK- 5,610
PENDER- 13,083
PERQUIMANS- 2,412
PERSON- 6,045
PITT- 30,127
POLK- 5,370
RANDOLPH- 44,622
RICHMOND- 5,301
ROBESON- 8,664
ROCKINGHAM- 19,312
ROWAN- 37,206
RUTHERFORD- 14,762
SAMPSON- 13,391
SCOTLAND- 3,343
STANLY- 17,147
STOKES- 14,485
SURRY- 17,586
SWAIN- 2,649
TRANSYLVANIA- 8,207
TYRRELL- 323
UNION- 59,987
VANCE- 4,185
WAKE- 186,525
WARREN- 1,637
WASHINGTON- 1,092
WATAUGA- 14,371
WAYNE- 23,234
WILKES- 21,312
WILSON- 13,631
YADKIN- 13,324
YANCEY- 5,046









Major Industries:
o Traditionally: Farming (tobacco, poultry), textile and furniture
o Transitioned to global economy
Green and sustainable energy
Software and information technology
Automotive, truck and heavy equipment.
Economic Drivers
o Government
o Financial and insurance industries (NC 1, p46)
Rules of governing the conduct of campaigns in North Carolina (NC 2)
Registration Rules:
o For Voters:

No same-day registration
Must register 25 days before election
No teenage pre-registration

o For the Candidate

Filing fee for the candidates is $1740.

o Important Deadlines
Feb. 10 -Feb. 28 - Candidate filing period
Apr. 11 - Deadline to register to vote in primary
Apr. 24 -May 3 - Early voting period for primary
Apr. 29 - Last day to request absentee ballot for primary
TUESDAY, MAY 6 - PRIMARY ELECTION DAY
Oct. 10 - Deadline to register to vote in general election
Oct. 23 - Nov. 1 - Early voting period for general election
Oct 28 - Last day to request absentee ballot for general election
TUESDAY, NOV. 4: GENERAL ELECTION DAY

When can people vote
o Early voting is 10 days.
o No out-of-precinct voting
o Allow mail-in absentee voting
Other relevant rules and regulation
o Photo ID required (not required until Jan. 2016)
o No straight party voting
o No out-of-precinct voting
o Poll hours: will not have extended hours due to problems.
o No public financing options
o Increase contribution limits
State candidate and PAC: $5000.00 per election

Media Coverage of the race



News Outlets
o Charlotte Market: largest city in North Carolina and therefore
contains a significant media market.
TV Market Population: 2.8 million
Largest paper: The Charlotte Observer
TV Stations
WBTV 3 CBS, WCCB 18 FOX, WCNC 36 NBC,
WSOC 9 ABC, and WTVI 42 PBS.
o The Triangle is an eight county media region in North Carolina that
contains the cities of Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill
Home to three major colleges: North Carolina State University,
Duke University and University of North Carolina at Chapel
Hill.
The region contains a population of 1,998,808
Largest paper: The News & Observer located in Raleigh
Radio Stations: home to North Carolina Public Radio with
thirty-eight FM stations and sixteen AM stations.

o The Raleigh-Durham TV Market: Contains 24 counties and is the
largest TV market in North Carolina
TV Market Population: 2.5 Million
o Major newspaper
The Charlotte Observer
The News & Observer
News & Record
TV and radio markets
o Most listened NC radio stations
WFJA 105.5 [classic hits]
WHLC 104.5 [Easy Listening]
WNKS 95.1 [top-40]
o TV
ABC network
FOX network
NBC network
CBS network



o Local political blogs
http://www.politicsnc.com
http://www.talkingaboutpolitics.com
http://carolinastrategy.com/category/2014-senate/
http://blog.wataugawatch.net/2014/01/god-tells-another-
republican-to-run-for.html
http://www.ncpoliticalnews.com
o National Coverage:
All major news networks will cover this race. Americans for
Prosperity have already spent 8.2 million dollars on TV, radio
and digital ads. It is estimated that they will spend an
estimated 27 million dollars by Election Day. The staggering
figures make North Carolina ground zero in the unprecedented
TV war expected to define the 2014 midterm elections,
According to Politico.com.

Candidates: Biography, SWOT analysis, message box
Ted Alexander:
Biography:
o Profession/experience:
Historical preservationist.
Served as coordinator of Virginias Main Street downtown
development program.
Hes served as chairman of the Cleveland County Republican
Party for the past year and will resign from the post to run for
Senate.
Alexander said hes held a number of positions with statewide
impact throughout his career, including a period as president of
the N.C. Downtown Development Association, the N.C.
Housing Finance Agency's Housing Partnership, the N.C.
Rural Economic Development Center and other organizations.
o Family: From Morganton, North Carolina. He has been married to his
wife, Patti, for 30 years. They have two children: Will and Christina.
o Ted was elected Mayor of Shelby, North Carolina in 2003 and held
that position until 2011.
SWOT Analysis
o Strengths
Former mayor [ good reputation]
Political experience
Speaking skills
Website is setup to mobilize
He is a people person
o Weaknesses
Far behind on fund-raising
The perception of his role as underdog. He may not be viewed
as a serious contender.



o Opportunities
Leader and past experience in economic development and
historic preservation
His success he had in reforming the town of Shelby and a tight
field that may allow him to make a push.
Crime rate was at the lowest in 30 years while he was the
mayor of Shelby
Consistent conservative voting record
o Threats
Regional candidate, lack of name recognition across the state
Message Box
Our Candidate Their Candidate
What we say Electable in GE,
Experienced, Able to
get stuff done
Not electable in GE,
Inexperienced
What they say Rich business guy,
doesnt look out for
little guy
Works for everyone,
Social and fiscal
conservative
Greg Brannon
Biography
o Born in Los Angeles, California.
o Attended school at the University of Southern California and went on
to receive a Medical Degree at Chicago Medical School.
o He and his wife, Jodi, have been married for 25 years and have seven
children (3 adopted). He has been a doctor for twenty years.
SWOT Analysis
o Strengths
Strong Christian value
Background in medical field
Knowledge of healthcare
Pro-life [7 children, 3 adopted)
Decent public speaker
o Weaknesses
Lack of finance and budget balancing skills
Fundraising ability
Lack of political savvy and experience
o Opportunities
Endorsement from Rand Paul and his underdog status
Obamacare as one of the most important issues in this election
Anti-establishment
Tea party candidate
o Threats:
Tea party candidate
Possible law suit
Message box
Our Candidate Their Candidate



What we will say Electable in GE,
Experienced, Able to
get stuff done
Inexperienced
What they will say Politics as usual, Not
real change
Endorsed by Rand
Paul, Understands and
can fix the healthcare
problem
Mark Harris
Biography
o Born in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
o Received his undergraduate degree from Appalachian State University
and went on to attend Southeastern Baptist Theological Seminary in
Wake Forest.
o He has been married to his wife, Elizabeth, for twenty-seven
years. They have three children and a daughter-in-law.
o Senior Pastor at three churches: Center Grove Baptist Church, Curtis
Baptist Church and First Baptist Church in Charlotte.
o Founding member of Vote for Marriage NC.
SWOT Analysis
o Strengths
Strong Christian Value
Conservative leadership abilities
Ability to garner support from various conservative groups.
o Weaknesses
Fundraising abilities
Lack of political experience
o Opportunities
Social issues: gay and abortion
Respectable reputation among conservatives due to his
successful attempt to pass the North Carolina Marriage
Protection Amendment
Political landscape that could benefit his grassroots style
campaign.
o Threats
His opponents ability to outraise him

Message Box
Our Candidate Their Candidate
What will we say Experienced, Leader Inexperienced
What will they say Politician, Status quo Fresh, eager, leader
o
Thom Tillis
Biography
o Current Position:
NC house of representative from 98
th
district
Speaker of the House



o Previous professional experiences
Businessman Partner in the national business consulting firm
PriceWaterhouseCoopers and IBM executive
o Family
Wife Susan Tills
Two Children
o Education:
B.S. of science from University of Maryland
o Past official elections
House to Representative from 98
th
district
SWOT Analysis
o Strengths
Business background, experiences in finance and budgeting
Fundraising numbers are consistent and are higher than the
competitors in primary
More funding compared to other primary candidates
Public speaker
Leadership experiences
High profile
o Weaknesses
Stands on impeachment of Obama
Targeting Kay Hagan
Ignoring the forms and joint appearance with the primary
candidates
Avoiding public forums
Gives a sense of ignorance
Lack of ability to appeal to both sides of his party.
o Opportunities
Business ties with the big corporations
Understanding of the private sector
Speaker of the House for North Carolina House of
Representatives
Establishment insider
Leads the field in recent polls
o Threats
Track record in the house
One of the major attack targets by both primary competitors
and by the incumbent
Establishment insider
Too much time and funding spent on primary election.
Divided party ( GOP establishment and tea party)
Must appeal to both


Lessons from the past
Describe the political history of the state or district



North Carolina is traditionally a purple state. According to voter registration,
there are more Democrats registered voters in the state of North Carolina,
however, there are also a significant amount of unaffiliated voters.
Is one of the candidates an incumbent? If so, for how long?
North Carolina Republican Primary: no incumbent.
NC Senate general election:
o Incumbent Kay Hagan, first elected in 2008
Have either of the candidates held other offices previously? If so, what and for how long?
Thom Tillis:
o Representative -98
th
District since 2007
o Speaker of the House of North Carolina House of Representatives
2011
Ted Alexander:
o Mayor of Shelby, NC.
o First elected in 2003(competitive race), ran unopposed in 2007.


Are races in this area usually closely contested? Provide examples/anecdotes to illustrate
competitiveness (or lack thereof)
Graphs from Hagan vs. Dole (2008)
o
Graphs from Burr vs. Marshall (2010)
Image

Describe the core elements of the image each candidate is trying to create
Thom Tillis
o Only candidate who could beat Hagan, experience in legislation



Greg Brannon
o Thorough understanding of health care reform, and will fight it.
Ted Alexander
o Former Mayor, established reputation with proven experience and
success
Mark Harris
o Reverend, fiscal and social conservative, fighting for core
constitutional values
What image is each candidate trying to project?
Thom Tillis
o Only viable option in the general election. Conservative businessman.
Greg Brannon
o Loving father, well-know OB/GYN, firsthand understanding of
healthcare.
Ted Alexander
o What God called me to do Represent the people and stand up against
the steamroller. A public servant.
Mark Harris
o Fighting for core constitutional value.
How well does the image fit the candidates background? Does it play to the candidates
strengths?
Thom Tillis
o It is good to establish that image right now, however, with a crowded
Primary, it may be difficult to secure 40% of the primary election
votes.
Greg Brannon
o His background backs up his image, and it plays to his strengths.
Ted Alexander
o He has the communities and he has the experience. However, I dont
think he is ready nor he demonstrates the ability to stand up against the
steam roller and working on legislations
Mark Harris
o He is running because he is a Reverend and he is a social and fiscal
conservative. He is running to fight for the core value of the
constitution.
How much flexibility does the candidate have to define herself/himself? (i.e. how well
established was the candidates image with voters prior to the campaign?)
Thom Tillis
o Tillis does not have much flexibility in defining himself comparing to
other candidates. He has the track record of voting on the legislative
bills as the speaker of the house. Many of his stances on certain issues
are set.
Greg Brannon



o Brannon has the ability or flexibility to define himself. He is known as
pro-life and he has a life record of proving that. He has the opportunity
to add on other characteristics to his image
Ted Alexander
o Alexander has regional recognition. He has established an image while
he was the Mayor of Shelby, NC. He had a good reputation and made
an effort of lowering the crime rates while he was in office. He has
some flexibility in defining, but not as so much.
Mark Harris
o Harris is a reverend for years. He will have to run on the image he has
established throughout the year while serving as the reverend. He has
little flexibility on reshaping his core values, however, he has the
flexibility in defining his stance on other issues.
Is the image consistent through the campaign?
To early to be determined
How would you craft each candidates image based on your SWOT analysis?
Thom Tillis
o Tillis has a strong background in the business sector. He is very
experienced with financial planning and budgeting. He is also a state
legislature. These attributes distinguish him from the other candidates
and should be highlighted. Obama Care is one of the major issues in
this race; therefore, incorporating his experience with Obama care is
very important.
Greg Brannon
o Brannon is a self-made man. He has a medical background as
OB/GYN and has an advantage in the race because he has firsthand
knowledge about health care. He has the most children among the
candidates, and the distribution of the childrens age could advantage
him on the issue in education.
Ted Alexander
o Alexander was a successful mayor, so he has regional recognition.
Getting his name out is important, and his image could be a successful
and experienced leader. His experience in economic development is
also a plus and could be something to focus on.
Mark Harris
o Harris has established himself as the fiscal and social conservative
candidate. He will need to run on these core values and stand by them.
How different / similar is this to the candidates actual image?
Thom Tillis [similar]
o It is very similar for Tillis. Tillis is running on his business experience
and according to his website, Tillis will push for repeal of
Obamacare, a balanced budget, and conservative economic policy.
Greg Brannon [similar]
o Brannon is running on the image as a self-made man, and is
highlighting his medical experience on his website.



Ted Alexander [somewhat similar]
o Alexander is portraying himself as an experience leader, at the same
time, a public server.
Mark Harris
o Harris has certain budgeting and planning experiences and a degree in
political science. His image as a reverend and his far right values
overwhelms his business and politics experiences.
How does each candidate try to undermine the opponents image?
There has not been many attack ads among the primary candidates {money
has one of the main factors}. Tillis is one of the major targets among the
candidates, and he is absent in several joint forums. The other opponents and
the media have said that he is being out of touch.
What weaknesses / vulnerabilities are exploited in each candidates image?
Tillis may eventually be viewed as a typical crooked politician. His big
business background can be used against him.
Tillis weaknesses are his track voting records as the House of
Representatives. He does not support the expansion of Medicaid in North
Carolina under the ACA. This would provide health insurance to over
500,000 poor families. He also sided with the insurance companies and
allowed the companies to deny coverage for pre-existing conditions. His
previous voting records may comeback and hunt him.
What weaknesses / vulnerabilities would you have exploited that were not used by the
opponent?
During primary election, the opponents may not use his stance on the
impeachment of Obama. All of the candidates have this in common.
Is there any reason these opportunities for attacks might be used by the actual campaign?
His voting record in supporting the laws mentioned above will be used by
both the primary election opponents and by Hagan.