TRNG I HC TY NGUYN

KHOA NNG LM NGHIP

PGS.TS. BO HUY





TIN HC THNG K TRONG QUN L
TI NGUYN THIN NHIN
X l thng k bng phn mm Statgraphics
Centurion XV v MS. Excel 2007









Thng 5 nm 2009


2



3
Mc lc
1. TNG QUT V CHC NNG X L THNG K CA MS.EXCEL 2007 V
STATGRAPHICS CENTURION XV ............................................................................ 7
1.1. Tng qut v phn x l thng k trong MS. Excel ................................................. 7
1.2. Tng qut v phn mm x l thng k Statgraphics Centurion ............................. 8
2. THNG K M T ........................................................................................... 10
3. SP XP V V BIU PHN B TN S XUT HIN THEO CP, C,
HNG ....................................................................................................................... 12
4. SO SNH 1 2 MU QUAN ST BNG TIU CHUN T ............................... 14
4.1. So snh mt mu vi mt gi tr cho trc Kim tra T mt mu ........................ 14
4.2. So snh s sai khc gia trung bnh 2 mu Kim tra T 2 mu ........................... 16
5. PHN TCH PHNG SAI ............................................................................... 19
5.1. Phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t vi cc th nghim ngu nhin hon ton ........... 19
5.2. Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t ............................................................................. 22
5.1.1. Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t vi 1 ln lp li: (B tr th nghim theo khi ngu
nhin y (Randomized Complete Blocks) (RCB): .................................................................. 22
5.1.2. Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp ................................................................... 28
6. PHN TCH TNG QUAN - HI QUY ........................................................... 32
6.1. Hi quy tuyn tnh 1 lp ......................................................................................... 32
6.2. Dng phi tuyn a v tuyn tnh 1 lp ................................................................. 34
6.2.1. Lp m hnh hm m trong Excel: ............................................................................... 34
6.2.2. Lp m hnh hm m mt lp trong Statgraphics: ....................................................... 36
6.3. c lng cc dng hi quy mt lp tuyn tnh hoc phi tuyn tnh trn th ... 40
6.4. Hi quy tuyn tnh nhiu lp .................................................................................. 45
6.5. Hi quy phi tuyn tnh nhiu lp, t hp bin ......................................................... 47
7. M HNH HO QUY LUT PHN B .............................................................. 57
7.1. M hnh ho phn b gim theo hm Meyer .......................................................... 57
7.2. M phng phn b thc nghim theo phn b khong cch-hnh hc: ................. 60
7.3. M phng phn b thc nghim theo phn b Weibull: ......................................... 62


4



5
LI NI U

Trong qun l ti nguyn thin nhin, ng dng cng ngh tin hc ng vai tr quan trng
trong phn tch, qun l c s d liu; trong ng dng tin hc trong x l thng k c p
dng ngy cng rng ri. Thng qua x l thng k trn cc phn mm, gip chng ta h
thng ha c s d liu, nh gi cc th nghim, phn tch cc mi quan h phc tp trong t
nhin v vi cc nhn t x hi tm ra quy lut nhm qun l bn vng. X l thng k
thng qua cng ngh tin hc ngy nay pht trin mt bc di, n gip cho con ngi rt
ngn c thi gian tnh ton, x l c mt lng ln thng tin v c c nhng hiu bit
mt cch khch quan cc quy lut t nhin v x hi. Do thnh tu ca cng ngh x l
thng k tin hc cn c ng dng mt cch rng ri hn trong quan l ti nguyn thin
nhin.

C rt nhiu phn mm ng dng x l thng k nh SPSS, Statgraphics, Excel....
Microsoft Excel c mi ngi bit n khi ni n cng c bng tnh, tnh tan..., nhng
nhng chc nng chuyn su v ng dng thng k trong sinh hc, qun l ti nguyn thin
nhin, mi trng li t c cp n. Trong khi chc nng x l thng k ca phn
mm Excel l ht sc phong ph v mnh ng dng trong cc th nghim, phn tch, nh
gi cc kt qu nghin cu, iu tra kho st v lm nghip, qun l ti nguyn thin nhin.
Trong bao gm cc x l thng k ph bin nh: Phn tch cc c trng mu, so snh cc
mu th nghim, phn tch phng sai, tng quan hi quy, d bo.. do phn mm Excel
c chn la gii thiu.
Cc phn mm thng k chuyn dng v ph bin trn th gii l Statgrahics, SPSS, . y
l cc phn mm thng k c ng dng rng trong hu ht cc lnh vc nghin cu, phn
tch d liu ca nhiu ngnh khc nhau v x hi, t nhin. ng dng mnh ca cc phn
mm ny l phn tch cc m hnh hi quy a bin dng tuyn tnh hay phi tuyn tnh vi cc
cch phn tch a dng nh hi quy lc, hi quy tng bc, t hp bin, m ha t ng cc
bin nh tnh, .. Do phn mm Statgraphics Centurion XV cng c gii thiu
ngi c c th tip cn vi cng c phn tch thng k ny.

Ti liu ny s khng i su vo l thuyt xc sut thng k, m thin v hng ng dng n
gin, d hiu, km theo cc v d ngi c c th thc hnh cc chc nng x l, phn
tch d liu bng Excel, Statgraphics Centurion XV mt cch nhanh chng, thun tin trong
hot ng qun l v nghin cu lm nghip, qun l ti nguyn thin nhin, mi trng.





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7
1. TNG QUT V CHC NNG X L THNG K CA MS.EXCEL
2007 V STATGRAPHICS CENTURION XV
1.1. Tng qut v phn x l thng k trong MS. Excel
Excel thit k sn mt s chng trnh x l s liu v phn tch thng k c bn ng dng
trong nhiu lnh vc:
- Chc nng x l s liu, to bng tng hp d liu: Sp xp, tnh ton nhanh cc bng
tng hp t s liu th,...
- Chc nng ca cc hm: Cung cp hng lot cc hm v k thut, thng k, kinh t ti
chnh, hm tra cc ch tiu thng k nh t, F,
2

- Chc nng Data Analysis: Dng phn tch thng k nh phn tch cc c trng
mu, tiu chuNn t so snh s sai khc, phn tch phng sai, c lng cc tng
quan hi quy
- Phn tch m hnh tong quan hoc hi quy d bo cc thay i theo thi gian ngay
trn th.

Lu : V vic ci t chng
trinh phn tch d liu (Data Analysis)
trong Excel:
- Khi ci t phn mm Excel phi
thc hin trong ch chn la ci
t, sau phi chn mc: Add-Ins
v Analysis Toolpak.
- Khi chy Excel ln u cn m ch
phn tch d liu bng cch: Menu
Tools/Add-Ins v chn Analysis
Toolpak-OK. (i vi MS. Office
2003)

i vi MS. Office 2007, tin hnh m
ch phn tch thng k nh sau: Kch
vo Microsoft Office Button sau chn
excel options, kch vo Add-ins, v chn
Analysis ToolPak trong hp thoi - OK.


Nh vy trong thc t qun l d liu nng
lm nghip ni ring, vic khai thc ht tim nng ng dng ca Excel cng mang li hiu
qu tt m khng nht thit phi tm kim thm mt phn mm chuyn dng no khc. Vn
t ra l xc nh chin lc ng dng v khai thc ng v su cc cng c chc nng sn
c mt phn mm ph bin bt k mt vi tnh c nhn no.




8
Mt s hm thng dng trong thng k:
o Tnh tng: =Sum(dy s).
o Tng bnh phng: =Sumq(dy s).
o Trung bnh: =Average(dy s).
o Ly gi tr tuyt i: =Abs(s).
o Tr ln nht, nh nht: =Max(dy s), Min(dy s).
o Cc hm lng gic: =Cos(s), =Sin(s), =tan(s).
o Hm m, log: =Exp(s), =Ln(s), =Log(s).
o Cn bc 2: =Sqrt(s)..
o Sai tiu chuNn mu cha hiu nh: =Stdevp(dy s); hiu nh =Stdev(dy
s).
o Phng sai mu cha hiu nh: =Varp(dy s); hiu nh =Var(dy s).
o Giai tha: =Fact(n).
o S Pi: =Pi().

Tra cc gi tr T, F, 2:
Chn 1 ly gi tr tra.
Kch nt fx trn thanh cng c chuNn. Trong hp thoi Function Category, chn
Statistical.
Trong mc Function name, chn 1 trong cc hm:
Hm Tinv: tra T.
Hm Chiinv: tra
2
.
Hm Finv: tra F.
Bm Next.
Trong hp thoi tip theo: Function Wizard chn:
o Probability (fx): G vo mc ngha =0.05 ; 0.01 hay 0.001.
o Degrees Freedom (fx): G vo bc t do. i vi tiu chuNn F cn ua vo 2
t do.
o Finish.
1.2. Tng qut v phn mm x l thng k Statgraphics Centurion
y l mt phn mm chuyn dng trong x l thng k, bao gm cc chc nng:
- To lp c s d liu di dng bng tnh
- Tnh ton cc c trng mu, v s , th quan h
- So snh hai hay nhiu mu bng cc tiu chuNn thng k t, U, F v nhiu tiu chuNn phi
tham s khc.
- Phn tch phng sai ANOVA.
- Kim tra tnh chuNn ca d liu v i bin s.
- Thit lp cc m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh hay phi tuyn tnh t mt cho n nhiu lp, t
hp bin. Vi cch x l a dng chn la c cc bin nh hng n mt hu qa
(bin ph thuc).



9


Giao tip trong Statgraphics Centurion, s liu u vo c th c nhp trc tip trong file
bng tnh v c s d liu; song vi cc lm ny i khi khng thun tin trong cc bc x
l s liu th nh i bin s, tnh cc bin trung gian, m ha bin s. Do thng thng
nn to lp c s d liu trong bng tnh Excel c th s dng nhng chc nng bng tnh
mnh ca n trong x l d liu th, to lp c s d liu; sau s nhp vo Statgraphics
Centurion tnh ton, thit lp m hnh, .... C s d liu lp trong Excel cn lu di dng
phin bn ca Excel 97 2003, v n cha nhn c file Excel version 2007.

Sau khi nhp d liu trong Excel 97-2003, ng file ca Excel v m n trong Statgrahics
Centurion nh sau: File/Open/Open Data Source; chn External Data File OK. Trong hp
thoi m file, chn kiu file Excel v chn file cn m to trc .







10
2. THNG K M T
c hiu bit r rng v mt i tng quan st nh sinh trng cy rng ca mt l rng,
s a dng loi ca ca l rng, bin ng mt ti sinh, t l sng ca trng rng, ..... cn
p dng thng k m t, bao gm tin hnh thu thp d liu ca mu v t tnh ton c
trng ca mu c lng cc ch tiu thng k c bn ca tng th . y l cc thng tin
c bn v mt i tng quan st, theo mt ch tiu, nhn t quan tm.
Cc c trng mu c m t bao gm tnh cc ch tiu c bn: S trung bnh, phng sai,
sai tiu chuNn, lch, nhn ca dy s liu quan st c v phm vi bin ng theo mt
tin cy cho trc.

V d: Kho st cc c trng c bn v sinh trng ca rng trng tch.
S liu o D
1,3
rng trng Tch 14 tui trong tiu chuNn 500m
2
.
Cc c trng mu c th tnh ng thi trong Excel theo cc bc:
Nhp s liu theo ct hoc hng.
Menu Tools/Data Analyisis/Descriptive Statistics/OK (Hoc Data/Data Analysis
trong MS. Ofice 2007). C hp thoi, trong cn xc nh:
o Input range: Khai bo khi d liu.
o Grouped by: Chn d liu nhp theo ct (Columns) hoc hng (Rows).
o Label in first row: Nu a vo c hng tiu th nh du.
o Output range: nh vo a ch trn tri ni a ra kt qu.
o Summary Statistics: Thng tin tm lc cc c trng thng k (nh du).
o Confidence Level for Mean: Chn tnh cy: 90% hoc 95% hoc 99%
ty theo yu cu nh gi, phn tch ng lng.
o Kch nt OK

Bng nhp d liu ng knh D
1.3
ca Tch






11
Bng khai bo tnh c trng mu


Kt qu tnh c trng mu
D1,3 (cm)

Mean 18,98
Standard Error 0,442
Median 19,1
Mode 19,42
Standard Deviation 3,16
Sample Variance 9,986
Kurtosis 0,852
Skewness -0,227
Range 17,19
Minimum 9,868
Maximum 27,06
Sum 968
Count 51
Confidence Level (95,0%) 0,889


12
Gii thch kt qu:
o Mean (Xbq): S trung bnh.
o Standard Error: Sai s ca s trung bnh mu.
o Median: Trung v mu.
o Mode: Tr s ng vi tn s phn b tp trung nht.
o Standard deviation (S): Sai tiu chuNn mu.
o Sample variance: Phng sai mu.
o Kurtosis (Ku): nhn ca phn b.
o Skewness (Sk): lch ca phn b.
o Minimum: Tr s quan st b nht.
o Maximum: Tr s quan st ln nht.
o Sum: Tng cc tr s quan st.
o Count: Dung lng mu.
o Cofidence level (95%): Sai s tuyt i ca c lng vi tin cy 95%.

Vi kt qu phn tch c trng mu, rt ra c cc ch s thng k quan trng sau:
- Gi tr trung bnh v cc bin ng nh sai tiu chuNn, phng sai, max, min
- Mu quan st chuNn hay cha thng qua Ku v Sk. Mu tim cn chuNn th mi bo
m s liu quan st v cc gi tr c lng l tin cy theo tin cy cho trc; nu
khng th gi tr ny s sai lch trong thc t. Vi mt mu quan st t phn b chuNn khi
Ku v Sk xp x bng 0.
o Kurtosis: nhn ca phn b
Ku = 0 phn b thc nghim tim cn chuNn.
Ku > 0 ng cong c dng bt hn so vi phn b chuNn.
Ku < 0 ng cong c nh nhn hn so vi phn b chuNn.
V d Ku = Kurt(A2:A52) = 0.852. nh ng cong thp hn so vi phn b
chuNn.
o Skewness: lch ca phn b.
S
k
= 0 phn b i xng.
S
k
> 0 nh ng cong lch tri so vi s trung bnh.
S
k
< 0 nh ng cong lch phi so vi s trung bnh.
V d trn S
k
= Skew(A2:A52) = -0.227. ng cong hi lch phi.
o Minimum: Tr s quan st b nht.
Nu mu phn b cha chuNn th cn b sung mu theo cng thc mu cn thit nct:

. %

/%

Trong V% l h s bin ng: % =

100 v % l sai s tng i cho trc.

- c lng phm vi bin ng ca gi tr trung bnh, trong v d trn vi tin cy 95% th
ng knh trung bnh ca khu rng tch 14 tui bin ng trong phm vi: 18.98 0.89 cm
Hay P(Xbq - Cofidence level (95%) Xbq + Cofidence level (95%) = 0.95

3. SP XP V V BIU PHN B TN S XUT HIN THEO
CP, C, HNG
y l chc nng sp xp bng phn b tn s theo mt nhn t theo tng cp, hng, ... v v
th phn b.
Trong nghin cu x hi, ngi ta cn nghin cu tn s phn b s ngi theo cp tui
bit s phn b con ngi theo cc th h c chin lc qun l ngun nhn lc.


13
Trong qun l ti nguyn thin nhin, thng cn nghin cu s phn b s lng c th loi
theo cp tui, cp kch thc bit c quy lut bin i c th theo th h, theo kch
thc, cht lng, ... l c s qun l, bo tn v nh hng khai thc s dng bn vng.
Trong lm nghip thng cn sp xp phn b s cy theo c knh (N/D), s cy theo c
chiu cao (N/H), s cy theo cp th tch (N/V), s cy theo loi cy theo cc tng rng, th
h t chc qun l iu ch rng.
V d cng t s liu quan st rng trng Tch 10 tui, tin hnh sp xp phn b thc
nghim N/H v v biu (cp H l 2m):
Np s liu chiu cao vo bng tnh theo ct.
Lp mt ct gii hn trn c knh. Vd: c 2m.

Bng tm tt d liu u vo



Menu Tools/Data Analysis/Histogram/OK (Data/Data Analysis trong MS Office
20907). Xut hin hp thoi, xc nh:
+ Input range: Khai bo khi d liu
+ Bin range: Khai bo khi cha c ly t.
+ Output range: Khai a ch trn tri ni a ra kt qu.
+ Cumulative percentage: Tnh phn trm tn s tch ly.(nh du).
+ Chart output: V biu . (nh du chn).
+ OK.







14
Kt qa sp xp phn b tn s


Kt qu sp xp tn s cho c mt dy d liu theo cp v biu phn b. N phn nh
c th hn c trng mu v cho thy hnh nh ca kiu dng phn b theo cp, th h; t
gip cho vic phn tch qun th v a ra quyt nh qun l, s dng bn vng. V d trong
biu trn, s cy phn ha kh mnh theo cp chiu cao, mt s cy sinh trng km cp
chiu cao nh 8 12m, mt s cy vt tn c cp H trn 22m; gii php ngh y l ta
tha loi b bt cy sinh trng km c H < 12m v c th ta tha mt s cy ln vi
H>22m li dng trung gian, lc ny c th s c kch thc tp trung trong phm vi 14
22m v c khng gian dinh dng pht trin.
4. SO SNH 1 2 MU QUAN ST BNG TIU CHUN T
Kim tra mu bng tiu chuNn t da vo gi thit phn phi chuNn ca mu quan st. C hai
loi kim tra t: kim tra t mt mu (one-sample t-test), v t cho hai mu (two-sample t-test).
Kim tra t mt mu nh gi s trung bnh ca mt mu c phi tht s bng mt ga tr
no hay khng?. Kim tra t hai mu th so snh hai mu c cng mt lut phn phi,
hay c th hn l hai mu c tht s c cng tr s trung bnh hay khng? Hay ni khc i c
s sai khc gia hai mu quan st hay khng?
4.1. So snh mt mu vi mt gi tr cho trc Kim tra T mt mu
Trong m t quan st mt mu, ngi ta c th c yu cu nh gi gi tr trung bnh ca mu
vi mt gi tr cho trc, v d t o m chiu cao ca cy ti sinh trong rng khp, so snh
vi mt gi tr cho trc v chiu cao mong i cy rng vt qua c la rng, xem tht
s chiu cao ti sinh ca l rng t yu cu hay cha?


15
gii quyt vn ny, s dng kim nh t mt mu. Theo l thuyt thng k cng thc t
kim tra mt mu vi mt gi tr cho trc:
=

Trong , Xbq l gi tr trung bnh ca mu, l trung bnh theo gi thuyt, S l sai tiu
chuNn v n l s lng mu quan st.
- Nu gi tr tuyt |t| tnh cao hn gi tr t l thuyt mc sai c ngha, thng l 5% th c
th kt lun c s khc bit c ngha thng k gia trung bnh mu vi gi tr cho trc
. V trong trng hp ny nu t tnh <0 th c ngha trung bnh ca mu nh thua c
ngha so vi trung bnh l thuyt, ngc li nu t tnh > 0 th trung bnh ca mu ln hn
c ngha so vi trung bnh l thuyt
- Nu |t| tnh t(0.05, df) th c th kt lun mc sai 5% trung bnh mu quan st xp x
vi trung bnh l thuyt.
Trong t l thuyt c tnh theo hm =tinv(0.05, df), vi t do df = n-1.

S liu o cao cy ti sinh rng khp trong Excel
Stt
Chiu
cao cy
ti sinh
(m)
1 1.5
2 1.3
3 0.8
4 1.9
5 1.7
6 2.2
7 2.5
8 1.0
9 0.7
10 1.9
11 1.8

58 1.6
59 2.0
60 1.9
61 1.7


tnh c gi tr t, cn tnh ton c trng mu c cc gi tr thng k v Xbq, S.










16
Kt qu tnh c trng mu ti sinh rng khp
Chiu cao cy ti sinh (m)
Mean 1.64
Standard Error 0.06318
Median 1.7
Mode 1.9
Standard Deviation 0.49347
Sample Variance 0.24351
Kurtosis -0.4499
Skewness -0.4627
Range 1.8
Minimum 0.7
Maximum 2.5
Sum 100.3
Count 61
Confidence Level(95.0%) 0.12638

T tnh gi tr thng k t: So snh trung bnh chiu cao ti sinh vi gi tr l thuyt =2m
=
1.64 2
0.493
61
= 5.63

V t l thuyt: t (0.05, df = n-1) = tinv(0.05, 60) = 2.00
Kt qu cho thy |t| = 5.63 > t(0.05, 60). Kt lun: C s sai khc c ngha gia trung bnh
chiu cao cy ti sinh rng khp vi gi tr trung bnh l thuyt mong i l 2m. V t < 0 do
c ngha l chiu cao trung bnh cy ti sinh nh thua c ngha khi so vi chiu cao
mong i l 2m; hay ni khc nu vi yu cu cao trn 2m th mi thot c nh hng ca
la rng, th l rng ny cy ti sinh cha t c.
4.2. So snh s sai khc gia trung bnh 2 mu Kim tra T 2 mu
Trong cc th nghim thng ngi ta cn so snh kt qu ca 2 cng thc, v d: Bn phn
khc nhau, tn che khc nhau, sinh trng ca cy c xut x khc nhau, ni b tc ng
nh hng v ni khng, sinh trng cy rng ni chy v khng chy.....Vic kim tra tin
hnh theo 2 mu trn c s so snh 2 s trung bnh bng cc tiu chuNn t.

Cng thc tnh gi tr kim tra t:
t =
X X
n n
n n n n
S S
1 2
1 1 2 1
1 2 2
1
1
1
2
2 2
1 2

+
+
+
( ) ( )
( )


Vi: X
1
, X
2
: Trung bnh ca mu 1 v 2.
S
1
2
, S
2
2
: Phng sai mu 1 v 2.
n
1
, n
2
: dung lng 2 mu 1 v 2.
Nu t tnh ln hn t bng vi =0.05 v t do K=n
1
+n
2
-2 th bc b gi thuyt Ho,
c ngha trung bnh 2 mu sai khc c ngha, v ngi ta s chn mu c trung bnh cao.



17
Trc khi s dng tiu chun t, cn kim tra 2 iu kin:
o Hai mu c phn b chuNn.
o Phng sai ca hai mu c bng nhau hay khng

Hai mu c phn b chun: Trong thc t nghin cu sinh hc, trng hp dung
lng mi mu >30 th c th xem l tim cn chuNn.

Kim tra s bng nhau ca 2 phng sai ca 2 mu bng tiu chun F.
Trc khi chn la tiu chuNn t so snh trung bnh 2 mu, cn kim tra s sai khc phng
sai ca chng bng tiu chuNn F.
V d: Kim tra sinh trng chiu cao H ca 2 phng php trng thng 3 l Pinus. kesiya
bng cy con v r trn ti trm thc nghim Lang Hanh-Lm ng: Mi cng thc c rt
mu theo tiu chuNn 1000m
2
, o m chiu cao:
- Dung lng quan st mi mu >90cy, nn chp nhn gi thuyt phn b N-
H ca tng mu tim cn chuNn; hoc c th kim tra thm qua Sk v Ku
mi mu.
- Kim tra bng nhau ca 2 phng sai bng tiu chuNn F:

Bng tm tt s liu sinh trng H ca hai mu
A B
1 H (cy con) H (r trn)
2 13,6 13
3 14 13,5
13,8 12
13 13,5
11 15
12 14
93 12,5 10
94 9

Tnh F: Mt trong 2 cch:
C1: Kch nt fx, c hp thoi: Chn: Statistical (trong Function Category) v
Ftest-Next (trong Function name): Xut hin hi thoi tip theo:
Array 1: a vo dy 1: A2:A93
Array 2: a vo dy 2: B2:B94
Finish.

C2: a n kt qu: =Ftest(A2:A93,B2:b94) Enter.

Nu gi tr xc sut P > 0.05, kt lun hai phng sai bng nhau, nu ngc li th
bc b.
Kt qu v d trn c P=0.40>0.05, kt lun phng sai hai mu bng nhau (cha c
sai d r).

Dng tiu chun t kim tra gi thuyt Ho theo trnh t:


18
Trong menu Tools/Data Analysis: Chn trong hp thoi mt trong hai trng hp tu
theo phng sai hai mu c bng nhau hay khng qua kim tra bng F bc trc
o t-Test: Two sample assuming equal variance (Trng hp phng sai bng
nhau).
o t-Test: Two sample assuming unequal variance (Trng hp phng sai
khng bng nhau).




Trong Hp thoi: Xc nh:
o Variable 1 range: Khi d liu mu 1 (A1:A93)
o Variable 2 range: Khi d liu mu 2 (B1:B94)
Nn a c tiu .
o Hypothesized mean diference: a vo 0 (C ngha gi thuyt Ho=0).
o Label: Nu c a hng tiu vo th cn nh du vi label
o Output range: a a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu.
o OK.

Nu: P(T<=t) two tail (hai chiu) <0.05, bc b Ho, c ngha 2 mu sai d r, ngc
li th trung bnh hai mu cha c sai khc.
Hoc |t Stat| > t Critical two tail (t hai chiu), bc b Ho, hai mu sai d r,
ngc li th sai khc l ngu nhin.





19
t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal
Variances

H (cy con) H (r trn)
Mean 11,60434783 13,40322581
Variance 2,559761108 2,148141655
Observations 92 93
Pooled Variance 2,352826738
Hypothesized Mean
Difference
0
df 183
t Stat -7,975469453
P(T<=t) one-tail 7,98781E-14
t Critical one-tail 1,653222625
P(T<=t) two-tail 1,59756E-13
t Critical two-tail 1,973012331

T kt qu trn cho thy sinh trng ca P.kesiya trng bng 2 phng php khc
nhau sai d r. Chiu cao bnh qun cy trng bng r trn hn hn trng bng cy con, do vy
phng php trng thng 3 l bng r trn cn c ng dng.

5. PHN TCH PHNG SAI
Phn tch phng sai l mt trong nhng phng php phn tch thng k quan trng,
c bit l trong cc th nghim ging, th nghim cc nhn t tc ng n hiu qu, cht
lng ca cy trng, vt nui, gieo um, kim nghim xut x cy trng. Ch yu nh gi
nh hng ca cc cng thc, nhn t n kt qu th nghim, lm c s cho vic la chn
cng thc, phng php ti u trong nng lm nghip.
iu kin phn tch phng sai l:
Cc gi tr quan st trong tng th nghim c phn b chuNn:
Nu dung lng quan st ln (n>30) th chp nhn gi thuyt phn b chuNn.
Cc phng sai ca tng nhn t bng nhau: Kim tra bng tiu chuNn Cochran
(nu s ln lp li bng nhau), bng tiu chuNn Bartlett (nu s ln lp ca cc
cng thc khng bng nhau).

5.1. Phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t vi cc th nghim ngu nhin hon
ton
Phn tch ny c mt nhn t nh xut x cy trng, mt trng khc nhau, ch chm
sc khc nhau, ....Trong nhn t c chia thnh a cng thc, mi cng thc c lp li
m ln, s ln lp ca mi cng thc c th bng hoc khng bng nhau.
Trong trng hp ny c th s dng chng trnh phn tch phng sai mt nhn t kim
tra nh hng ca cc cng thc n kt qu th nghim.

V d: nh gi kt qu kho nghim xut x Pinus caribeae ti Lang Hanh-Lm ng.
Theo d kin s c 10 xut x P.caribeae c trng kho nghim ti trm thc nghim Lang
Hanh nm 1991. Vic b tr th nghim ban u d kin tin hnh theo khi ngu nhin


20
y RCB (Randomized Complete Blocks), bao gm 10 cng thc ch th 10 xut x v
c lp li 4 khi.
Nhng trong qu trnh trin khai trng thc nghim, ch cn li 7 xut x v ch c 5 xut x
lp li 4 ln, cn 2 xut x ch c lp li 2 ln.

7 xut x P.caribeae c trng thc t, c nh s v lp li nh sau:
1: Xut x P.alamicamba (NIC) lp li 4 ln.
2: P.poptun (Guat) 4
3: P.guanaja (Nonduras) 4
4: P.linures (Nonduras) 4
5: P.R482 (Australia) 2
6: P.T473 (Australia) 4
8: P.little asaco (Bahamas) 2

o Mi xut x ng vi 1 ln lp c trng 25 cy, vi c ly 3x2m, tng din tch b tr
th nghim l 1ha.
o Cc iu kin t ai, vi kh hu, ia hnh, chm sc...u c ng nht, nhn t
thay i kho st ch cn li l cc xut x khc nhau.
o Ti thi im iu tra (1996), cy trng trong cc th nghim c tui l 5. Tin hnh
o m ton din cc ch tiu D
1,3
, H, D
t
, phNm cht, ta cnh, hnh thn. S dng 2 ch
tiu D
1,3
v H nh gi sinh trng ca cc xut x th nghim.

Dng phn tch phng sai nh gi s sai khc v sinh trng cc xut x
Trc ht kim tra 2 iu kin phn tch phng sai:
o iu kin phn b chuNn: Cc gi tr quan st tng th nghim qua kim c dng
tim cn chuNn nn chp nhn gi thuyt phn b chuNn.
o Phng sai bng nhau: Do dung lng mu cc xut x khng bng nhau nn dng
tiu chuNn Bartlett kim tra, kt qu tnh c:
X
2
= 3,73 < X
2
(0,05 ; 6) = 12,59
Do chp nhn gi thuyt bng nhau ca cc phng sai mu.
Nh vy 2 iu kin trn l tha mn tin hnh phn tch phng sai.

Dng phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t kim tra. Trong nhn t l Xut x vi 7 cng
thc:






21
Gi tr D
1,3
(cm) bnh qun ng vi tng th nghim ca cc Xut x theo khi (ln lp
li)
A B C D E
1 Xut x Khi 1 Khi 2 Khi 3 Khi 4
2 1 10.8 11.2 10.4 9.9
3 2 12.3 11.5 9.5 10.0
4 3 9.4 10.5 11.0 9.5
5 4 9.0 10.8 11.5 8.7
6 5 14.2 12.9
7 6 12.3 12.5 12.4 10.8
8 8 7.0 9.8

Phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t:
Vo menu Tools/Data Analysis/Anova (Hoc Data/Data Analysis/Anova trong
MS. Ofice 2007): Chn ANOVA Single Factor c c Hp thoi:
o Input range: Nhp a ch khi d liu. Vd: A2:E8. (C ct u cha s hiu
cng thc, nhng b hng u).
o Grouped by: Chn Columns hoc Rows.
o nh du vo Label in first colum (row).
o Output range: a a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu.
o Kch OK.

Khai bo phn tch ANOVA 1 nhn t





22

Kt qu phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t
Anova: Single Factor
SUMMARY
Groups Count Sum Average Variance
1 4 42.3 10.6 0.299523
2 4 43.2 10.8 1.703825
3 4 40.3 10.1 0.616404
4 4 40.0 10.0 1.780196
5 2 27.1 13.5 0.797116
6 4 48.1 12.0 0.673895
8 2 16.7 8.4 3.903367
ANOVA
Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value F crit
Between Groups 37.53507 6 6.255846 5.338286 0.002925 2.698656
Within Groups 19.92201 17 1.171883

Total 57.45708 23


T bng ANOVA nhn c: i vi cc xut x khc nhau: F = 5,33 > F
(0,05)
= 2,69. Kt
lun: Cc xut x khc nhau c s sai khc v sinh trng ng knh. Nu ngc li th kt
lun rng gia cc xut x cha c s sai khc v sinh trng.
Trn c s chn hai xut x c trung bnh cao nht v th hai so snh bng tiu chuNn t.
Kt qu cho thy khoogn c sai khc.
Nh vy, xt theo ch tiu ng knh, xut x ti u trong 7 xut x kho nghim l 5 v 6,
hai xut x ny c ch tiu D ln nht, cha c sai d vi nhau v c sai khc r rt vi cc
xut x cn li. l 2 xut x: P.R482 (Australia) v P.T473 (Australia).
5.2. Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t
Trong cc th nghim ngi ta thng so snh v phn tch tc ng ng thi 2 nhn t (v
d nh t v xut x) ln kt qu th nghim nh: nng sut, sinh khi... Phn tch phng
sai lc ny chia 2 trng hp: Hai nhn t vi mt ln lp v Hai nhn t vi nhiu ln lp
li.
5.1.1. Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t vi 1 ln lp li: (B tr th nghim theo
khi ngu nhin y (Randomized Complete Blocks) (RCB):
Kiu b tr th nghim RCB thng c s dng, nhn t A chia lm a cp v c lp li
b khi (nhn t B).
V d: nh gi kt qu kho nghim 16 xut x Pinus kesiya ti Lang Hanh-Lm ng: 16
xut x P.kesiya c trng kho nghim ti trm thc nghim Lang Hanh nm 1991.
Vic b tr th nghim c tin hnh theo khi ngu nhin y RCB (Randomized
Complete Blocks), bao gm 16 cng thc ch th 16 xut x v c lp li 4 cp t (khi)


23

16 xut x P.kesiya c nh s nh sau:
1: Xut x Bengliet.
2: Faplac.
3: Xun Th.
4: Thc Prenn.
5: Lang Hanh.
6: Nong Kiating.
7: Doisupthep.
8: Doiinthranon.
9: Phu Kradung.
10: Nam nouv.
11: Cotomines.
12: Simao.
13: Watchan.
14: Zo khua.
15: Aung ban.
16: Jingdury.

o Mi cng thc ng vi 1 ln lp c trng 25 cy, vi c ly 3x2m, tng din tch b
tr th nghim l 1,5ha.
o Cc kh hu, a hnh, chm sc...u c ng nht, nhn t thay i kho st ch
cn li l cc xut x v cp t khc nhau.
o Ti thi im iu tra (1996), cy trng trong cc th nghim c tui l 5. Tin hnh
o m ton din cc ch tiu D
1,3
, H, D
t
, phNm cht, ta cnh, hnh thn. S dng 2 ch
tiu D
1,3
v H nh gi sinh trng ca cc xut x th nghim.
Dng phn tch phng sai nh gi s sai khc v sinh trng, c th cho tng ch
tiu sinh trng nh sau:
Trc ht kim tra 2 iu kin phn tch phng sai:
iu kin phn b chuNn: Cc gi tr quan st tng th nghim qua kim tra bo
m cc mu tim cn chuNn nn chp nhn gi thuyt phn b chuNn.
Phng sai bng nhau: Dng tiu chuNn Cochran, kt qu tnh c:
Gmax = 0,11 < Gmax (0,05 ; 16 ; 3) = 0,28
Do chp nhn gi thuyt bng nhau ca cc phng sai mu.
Nh vy 2 iu kin trn l tha mn tin hnh phn tch phng sai.

Dng phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t 1 ln lp kim tra:
Vi nhn t th nht l 16 xut x, nhn t th 2 l cp t vi 4 cp. ng vi 1 t
hp Xut x - Cp t ch c 1 th nghim (lp li 1 ln).













24
Bng d liu phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t 1 ln lp
Gi tr D
1,3
(cm) bnh qun ng vi tng th nghim
A B C D E
1 Xut x Cp t 1 Cp t 2 Cp t 3 Cp t 4
2 1 11.4 11.3 10.8 13.3
3 2 11.4 11.6 10.9 10.9
4 3 11.7 12.6 11.7 12.6
5 4 13.7 12.1 11.6 11.7
6 5 14.1 13.6 13.7 13.7
7 6 13.5 11.4 12.2 11.3
8 7 13.8 12.3 12.6 11.4
9 8 14.1 13.3 15.2 13.0
10 9 13.8 11.8 11.9 12.1
11 10 11.3 11.8 12.1 11.8
12 11 12.6 12.6 13.3 10.9
13 12 11.3 12.4 10.5 12.0
14 13 12.7 13.4 12.1 10.7
15 14 10.1 9.5 9.8 8.0
16 15 10.5 9.4 9.1 10.9
17 16 10.2 11.0 10.8 11.9

Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t 1 ln lp:
o Tools/Data Analysis/Anova: Two Factor Without Replication - OK.
o Hp thoi:
Input range: a ch khi d liu (Nn qut c hng, ct u lm nhn). Vd:
A1:E17
nh du vo Labels.
Output range: a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu
OK



25



Kt qu phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t 1 ln lp li
Anova: Two-Factor Without Replication
SUMMARY Count Sum Average Variance
1 4 46.9 11.7 1.253512
2 4 44.8 11.2 0.156318
3 4 48.6 12.2 0.268337
4 4 49.1 12.3 0.933224
5 4 55.1 13.8 0.049285
6 4 48.5 12.1 1.064903
7 4 50.0 12.5 0.975826
8 4 55.7 13.9 0.926688
9 4 49.7 12.4 0.817143
10 4 47.0 11.7 0.107475
11 4 49.3 12.3 1.054463
12 4 46.1 11.5 0.664541
13 4 48.9 12.2 1.255351
14 4 37.4 9.3 0.85117
15 4 39.9 10.0 0.763403
16 4 43.9 11.0 0.514494



26
Cp t 1 16 196.1 12.3 2.077919
Cp t 2 16 190.2 11.9 1.470334
Cp t 3 16 188.3 11.8 2.263297
Cp t 4 16 186.3 11.6 1.767392

ANOVA
Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value F crit
Rows 82.11826 15 5.474551 7.804468 3.58E-08 1.894875
Columns 3.402532 3 1.134177 1.616873 0.198718 2.811547
Error 31.56586 45 0.701464

Total 117.0867 63


T bng ANOVA nhn c:
i vi cc xut x khc nhau (Hng - Rows): F = 7,80 > F
(0,05)
= 1,89. Kt lun:
Cc xut x khc nhau c s sai khc v sinh trng ng knh.
i vi cc cp t (Ct Collumns): F = 1,62 < F
(0,05)
= 2,81. Kt lun:
Cc cp t khc nhau cha c nh hng n sinh trng.
Nh vy 16 xut x khi trng Lang Hanh c sinh trng khc nhau, do vic cp
t khng nh hng rt, nn nh gi chnh xc hn ch cn phn tch phng sai 1 nhn
t (xut x):



27
Phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t
Anova: Single Factor
SUMMARY
Groups Count Sum Average Variance
1 4 46.9 11.7 1.253512
2 4 44.8 11.2 0.156318
3 4 48.6 12.2 0.268337
4 4 49.1 12.3 0.933224
5 4 55.1 13.8 0.049285
6 4 48.5 12.1 1.064903
7 4 50.0 12.5 0.975826
8 4 55.7 13.9 0.926688
9 4 49.7 12.4 0.817143
10 4 47.0 11.7 0.107475
11 4 49.3 12.3 1.054463
12 4 46.1 11.5 0.664541
13 4 48.9 12.2 1.255351
14 4 37.4 9.3 0.85117
15 4 39.9 10.0 0.763403
16 4 43.9 11.0 0.514494
ANOVA
Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value F crit
Between Groups 82.11826 15 5.474551 7.514741 3.59E-08 1.880174
Within Groups 34.9684 48 0.728508

Total 117.0867 63

Kt qu t bng ANOVA cho thy F = 7,51 > F
(0,05)
= 1,88. Kt lun: Sinh trng
ng knh ca 16 xut x l khc nhau khi trng Lang Hanh.


28
Sinh trng bnh qun ng knh cc xut x theo th t t cao n thp bng sau:
Th t sinh trng ng knh t tt n xu
Xut x D1,3 tb(cm)
8 13.9
5 13.8
7 12.5
9 12.4
11 12.3
4 12.3
13 12.2
3 12.2
6 12.1
10 11.7
1 11.7
12 11.5
2 11.2
16 11.0
15 10.0
14 9.3

Xut x 8 c gi tr trung bnh cao nht, sau dng tiu chuNn t so snh sinh trng
ng knh ln nht ca xut x 8 vi cc xut x c ng knh ln lt nh hn. Kt qu
cho thy xut x 8 khng c sai d vi xut x c trung bnh th hai l xut x 5.
Nh vy, xt theo ch tiu ng knh, xut x ti u trong 16 xut x kho nghim l 8 v 5,
hai xut x ny c ch tiu D ln nht, cha c sai d vi nhau v c sai khc r rt vi cc
xut x cn li. l 2 xut x: Doiinthranon v Lang Hanh.

5.1.2. Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp
Trng hp ny mi t hp nhn t A v B c lp li m ln mt cch ngu nhin. Lc ny
ngoi vic nh gi nh hng ca tng nhn t A, B cn phi tnh nh hng qua li ca
chng n kt qu th nghim.
V d: Nghin cu nh hng ca hai nhn t th nghim l mt v bn phn n nng sut
ca bng.

o Nhn t A: Mt chia lm 3 cp.
o Nhn t B: Phn bn c chia lm 4 mc
o Mi t hp c th nghim lp li ngu nhin 4 ln.








29
Bng s liu sn lng bng theo t hp 2 nhn t v lp li 4 ln mt t hp
(/v: T/ha)
A B C D
1 B\A A1 A2 A3
2 B1 16 17 18
3 14 15 18
4 21 17 19
5 16 19 17
6 B2 19 19 20
7 20 18 23
8 23 18 21
9 19 20 21
10 B3 19 21 22
11 21 21 18
12 22 22 21
13 20 23 21
14 B4 20 20 25
15 24 20 22
16 21 22 21
17 17 19 23

Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp:
o Tools/Data Analysis/Anova: Two Factor With Replication- OK.
o Hp thoi: Xc nh:
Input range: Nhp khi d liu k c hng ct tiu . Vd: A1:D17.
Rows per sample: Nhp s ln lp. Vd: 4.
Output range: Nhp a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu.
OK.














30

Khai bo phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp


Kt qu phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp
Anova: Two-Factor With Replication
SUMMARY 1 2 3 Total
1
Count 4 4 4 12
Sum 67 68 72 207
Average 16,75 17 18 17,25
Variance 8,916667 2,666667 0,666667 3,659091
2
Count 4 4 4 12
Sum 81 75 85 241
Average 20,25 18,75 21,25 20,08333
Variance 3,583333 0,916667 1,583333 2,810606
3
Count 4 4 4 12
Sum 82 87 82 251


31
Average 20,5 21,75 20,5 20,91667
Variance 1,666667 0,916667 3 1,901515
4
Count 4 4 4 12
Sum 82 81 91 254
Average 20,5 20,25 22,75 21,16667
Variance 8,333333 1,583333 2,916667 4,878788
Total
Count 16 16 16
Sum 312 311 330
Average 19,5 19,4375 20,625
Variance 7,2 4,529167 4,783333

ANOVA

Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value F crit
Sample 116,2292 3 38,74306 12,65079 8,45E-06 2,866265
Columns 14,29167 2 7,145833 2,333333 0,111468 3,259444
Interaction 21,20833 6 3,534722 1,154195 0,352014 2,363748
Within 110,25 36 3,0625

Total 261,9792 47

Bng Summary: Cho kt qu tnh ton tng t hp nhn t A/B v chung cho tng
nhn t B, nhn t A, gm cc ch tiu: Dung lng (Count), Tng (Sum), Trung
bnh (Average), Phng sai (Variance).
Bng ANOVA:
Ct u tin l cc ngun bin ng:
o Sample: Bin ng do nhn t B to nn (do c xp theo hng).
o Columns: Bin ng do nhn t A to nn (do c xp theo ct).
o Interaction: Tc ng qua li.
o Within: Bin ng ngu nhin.
o Total: Bin ng chinh ca n gi tr quan st.
T kt qu ny cho thy:
F
B
= 12.65 > F
0.05
= 2.87. Kl: Phn bn c tc ng r rt n nng sut bng.
F
A
= 2.33 < F
0.05
= 3.26. Kl: Mt nh hng khng r n nng sut bng.
F
AB
= 1.15 < F
0.05
= 3.36. Kl: ng thi thay i mt v phn bn nh hng
khng r n nng sut.
Lc ny ch cn vic la chn cng thc bn phn ti u. Qua s trung bnh nng sut theo
tng cng thc bn phn cho thy cng thc 4 c nng sut cao nht l 21.16 t/ha. C th
dng tiu chuNn t kim tra li xem cng thc 4 c sai khc vi cng thc no cn li la
chn cng thc c hiu qu nht.


32
6. PHN TCH TNG QUAN - HI QUY
Trong thc t ngi ta cn lp cc m hnh tng quan hi quy v cc mc ch:
o c lng mt nhn t kh o m (gi l bin ph thuc y) thng qua mt hay
nhiu bin d quan st, o m (gi l bin c lp x) v tt nhin l phi c mi lin
h gia y v x. T y c th lp cc biu iu tra phc v cho vic gim nh cc quan
st o m mt s nhn t phc tp
o d bo mt nhn t trong tng lai (gi l bin d bo y) vi mt s bin c lp,
u vo (gi l l bin c lp x)
o nghin cu tc ng, nh hng ca mt hoc nhiu nhn t n mt yu t cn
quan tm nh sinh trng, sn lng, cht lng rng, xi mn t, dng chy lu
vc. Trn c s c gii php k thut thch hp hoc cc bin php qun l quy
hoch cp v m.

Mc ch l s dng chng trnh Excel hoc Statgraphics thit lp cc m hnh tng
quan/hi quy tuyn tnh t mt cho n nhiu bin s c lp. Trong chng trnh ny, cc
tham s c c lng bng phng php bnh phng ti thiu. Ring cc dng phi tuyn
khi ng dng chng trnh ny cn i bin s quy v dng tuyn tnh.
6.1. Hi quy tuyn tnh 1 lp
Hi quy tuyn tnh mt lp c ngha l c mt bin s c lp x c nghin cu nh hng
n bin ph thuc y, dng quan h c xc nh l ng thng. C ngha l khi x tng
hoc gim th y cng tng hoc gim u theo dng c thng. Dng phng trnh tng qut:
Y = A + B.X.

Vd: Lp m hnh tng quan gia chiu cao di cnh (Hdc) vi chiu cao c cy (H) rng
Tch dng ng thng: Hdc = A + B.H. V Hdc l ch tiu kh o m hn H, nn dng
quan h ny xc nh Hdc thng qua H.

Nhp s liu theo bng:
Cc cp s liu Hdc - H
A B
1 Hdc(m) H(m)
2 22,0 23,0
3 21,8 23,0
4 21,5 22,3
..... ..... .....
40 9,7 10,9
41 9,8 11,1

c lng tng quan hi quy ng thng:
o Tools/Data Analysis/Regression (Data/Data Analysis/Regression trong
MS. Office 2009). OK.
o Hp thoi:
Input Y range: Nhp a ch ct bin Y (C th nhp c nhn). Vd: A1:A41.
Input X range: Nhp a ch ct bin X (C th nhp c nhn). Vd: B1:B41.
Label: nh du nu nhp c hng u lm nhn.


33
Output range: Nhp a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu.
OK.

Khai bo chy tng quan tuyn tnh 1 lp



Kt qu c lng hi quy tuyn tnh 1 lp
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,998189546
R Square 0,99638237
Adjusted R Square 0,996287169
Standard Error 0,318271114
Observations 40
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1060,180842 1060,181 10466,12 5,24804E-48
Residual 38 3,84926708 0,101297
Total 39 1064,030109
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept -0,715306008 0,127254043 -5,62109 1,88E-06 -0,972918358 -0,457693658
Hgo(m) 0,994341123 0,009719471 102,304 5,25E-48 0,974665081 1,014017165


34

Phng trnh tng quan:
Hdc = - 0.715 + 0.994.H
Vi N = 40 R = 0.998 Fr = 10466.12 vi <0.0000 nn R tn ti (khc 0)
T phng trnh hi quy, c th xc nh Hdc gin tip qua H.

6.2. Dng phi tuyn a v tuyn tnh 1 lp
Trong thc t bin y c th khng c dng quan h ng thng vi x, do cn s dng m
hnh phi tuyn. Trng hp cc hm phi tuyn, c lng cn bin i thnh dng tuyn
tnh c lng trong cc phn mm Excel, Statgraphics hoc ngay trn th ca Excel.

Mt s hm phi tuyn ph bin nh:

b
x a y . = tuyn tnh ha: ln(y) = ln(a) + b.ln(x)

bx
e a y . = tuyn tnh ha: ln(y) = ln(a) + b.x

6.2.1. Lp m hnh hm m trong Excel:
V d: Lp m hnh tng quan H/D rng trng Tch dng hm m:
H = a.D
b

Tuyn tnh ha: Logarit neper 2 v:
Ln(H) = Ln(a) + b.Ln(D)
t Y = Ln(H) X = Ln(D) A = Ln(a) B = b.
Vy Y = A + B.X

Nhp s liu v i bin s:
o Ct A: S liu D.
o Ct B: S liu H.
o Ct C: Ln(D). Ti C2: =Ln(A2), copy cho c ct.
o Ct D: Ln(H). Ti D2: =Ln(B2), copy cho c ct.
S liu H/D v i bin s
A B C D
1 D(cm) H(m) Ln(D) Ln(H)
2 31,3 22,0 3,443863 3,091042
3 32,0 21,8 3,466237 3,08191
... ... .... ..... .....
.... .... .... ..... .....
40 12,6 9,7 2,536373 2,270804
41 13,9 9,8 2,629481 2,277972

c lng tng quan hi quy ng thng trong Excel:
o Tools/Data Analysis/Regression. OK.
o Hp thoi:
Input Y range: Nhp a ch ct bin Y (C th nhp c nhn). Vd: D1:D41.
Input X range: Nhp a ch ct bin X (C th nhp c nhn). Vd: C1:C41.
Label: nh du nu nhp c hng u lm nhn.


35
Output range: Nhp a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu.
Kch OK.

i bin s v khai bo lp m hnh phi tuyn 1 lp v tuyn tnh


Kt qu c lng hi quy tuyn tnh
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,940772849
R Square 0,885053553
Adjusted R
Square
0,882028647
Standard Error 0,166400069
Observations 40
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 8,101484412 8,101484 292,5887 1,92186E-19
Residual 38 1,052181354 0,027689
Total 39 9,153665766

Coefficients Standard
Error
t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept -0,78748559 0,182988537 -4,30347 0,000114 -1,157926531 -0,417044653
Ln(D) 1,153364313 0,067427602 17,10523 1,92E-19 1,016864265 1,289864361



36
Phng trnh tng quan:
Ln(H) = -0.787 + 1.153Ln(D)
Vi N = 40 R = 0.941 Fr = 292.59 vi <0.0000, nn R tn ti
a v dng nguyn thy: Tnh a = exp(A) = exp(-0.787) = 0.455
Vy: H = 0.455.D
1.153


6.2.2. Lp m hnh hm m mt lp trong Statgraphics:
Trong Statgraphics, vic c lng m hnh phi tuyn tnh n gin hn v khng cn to
thm cc ct i bin s, bin s c i trc tip trong hp thoi khi thit lp m hnh.

u tin nhp d liu trong Excel vi hai ct x v y, v d l D v H nh sau



File d liu Excel cn c lu vi version ca Microsoft Excel 97-2003 v trc, v
Statgraphics cha nhn c kiu file MS. Office 2007

Sau m file d liu ny trong Statgraphics Centurion: File/Open/Open Data
Source/External Data file - OK












37
M file d liu Excel trong Statgraphics Centurion






Chy phn x l hm tng quan mt lp: Improve/Regression Analysis/One Factor/Simple
Regression






38

Chn chng trnh chy tuyn tnh mt lp trong Statgraphics Centurion




Trong hp thoi chn bin y v x v i bin s ngay trong hp thoi: log(H) v log(D). Kch
OK c kt qu. (Lu k hiu log trong Statgraphics l logarit neper)
















39
Kt qu chy hm m i v tuyn tnh trong Statgrphics



Simple Regression - log(H) vs. log(D)
Dependent variable: log(H)
Independent variable: log(D)
Linear model: Y = a + b*X

Coefficients
Least Squares Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
Intercept -0.800869 0.18412 -4.34972 0.0001
Slope 1.15794 0.0678368 17.0695 0.0000

Analysis of Variance
Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
Model 8.14157 1 8.14157 291.37 0.0000
Residual 1.06182 38 0.0279427
Total (Corr.) 9.20339 39

Correlation Coefficient = 0.940546
R-squared = 88.4627 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 88.1591 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0.167161
Mean absolute error = 0.1213
Durbin-Watson statistic = 0.898852 (P=0.0000)
Lag 1 residual autocorrelation = 0.545672

The StatAdvisor
The output shows the results of fitting a linear model to describe the relationship between log(H) and log(D). The equation
of the fitted model is

log(H) = -0.800869 + 1.15794*log(D)

Since the P-value in the ANOVA table is less than 0.05, there is a statistically significant relationship between log(H) and
log(D) at the 95.0% confidence level.

The R-Squared statistic indicates that the model as fitted explains 88.4627% of the variability in log(H). The correlation
coefficient equals 0.940546, indicating a relatively strong relationship between the variables. The standard error of the


40
estimate shows the standard deviation of the residuals to be 0.167161. This value can be used to construct prediction limits
for new observations by selecting the Forecasts option from the text menu.

The mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.1213 is the average value of the residuals. The Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic tests the
residuals to determine if there is any significant correlation based on the order in which they occur in your data file. Since
the P-value is less than 0.05, there is an indication of possible serial correlation at the 95.0% confidence level. Plot the
residuals versus row order to see if there is any pattern that can be seen.




Kt qu cho ra hm trc tip vit di dng tuyn tnh i bin s
Cc kt qu kim tra h s tng quan R v cc bin s c hiu ging nh trong Excel

6.3. c lng cc dng hi quy mt lp tuyn tnh hoc phi tuyn tnh
trn th
Trong thc t trc quan cc mi quan h, ngi ta thng dng th biu din, v d
dng trong vic xem xt cc s bo, Excel h tr chng trnh xc nh m hnh hi quy
tuyn tnh v phi tuyn tnh mt lp ngay trn th. Excel lp sn 5 dng hm ph bin trong
phn ny.
V d: La chn m hnh hi quy H/D cho rng trng Tch ngay trn th quan h






Plot of Fitted Model
log(H) = -0.800869 + 1.15794*log(D)
1.9 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.5
log(D)
1.2
1.6
2
2.4
2.8
3.2
l
o
g
(
H
)


41
Nhp s liu:
S liu v quan h H/D
A B
1 D(cm) H(m)
2 6,7 3,5
3 6,8 3,6
4 9,5 5,7
5 9,5 6,1
... ... ...
40 31,3 22,0
41 32,0 21,8

V th: Tin hnh cc bc v th quan h H/D. (Nn v dng m my
im).
Tnh ton m hnh quan h da vo th:
o Kch hot th: Kch chut tri.
o Chn m my im trn th: Kch chut phi vo m my m ny.
o Chn Add Trendline

Lp th thit lp hm m hnh quan h 1 lp








42
Chn mc Type: y chn dng lin h thch hp, c cc dng sau:


Linear: y = mx + b
Logarithmic: y = clnx + b
Polynomial: y = b + c
1
x + c
2
x
2
+ .....c
6
x
6

C th chn 1 n 6 bc trong Order: Xc nh s bc.
Power: y = cx
b

Exponential: y = c.e
bx

Chn cc kiu hm khc nhau c c R
2
ln nht.

Chn mc Option: Xc nh:


43



Forecast: Foward: Xc nh di d on tip theo.
Backward: Xc nh di d on li.
Set intercept (0): Nu nh du th tham s b=0 trong cc hm ng thng
Display Equation on Chart: nh du a hm ln th.
Display R-squared Value on Chart: nh du nu mun tnh h s tng quan
bnh phng.
Cui cng l OK.
Khai bo v chn hm trong MS. Office 2007



44
V d khc: D bo t l che ph ca rng trong thi gian n


V d khc: Lng carbon c lu tr trong cc kiu rng khc nhau c m phng bng
dng hm phi tuyn trn th. Trong khng cn m ha bin s x (kiu rng), lc ny s
dng s ct v v chy phng trnh thch hp. Lc ny my tnh t ng m ha
cc kiu rng l 1, 2, 3, 4 .....

Lng carbon trn v di mt t cc kiu s dng t
rng
Cc vng rng Brazil, Cameroon v Indonesia

Cc kiu rng
Lng carbon
(tn/ha)

Di
mt
t
Trong thc
vt
Rng nguyn sinh 48 310
Rng khai thc chn 48 230
Rng b ho sau nng ry 48 75
t Nng Lm kt hp 45 50
Cy trng ngn ngy 25 5
ng c chn th gia sc 20 2




45


6.4. Hi quy tuyn tnh nhiu lp
Trong thc t bin ph thuc Y b chi phi bi nhiu bin s c lp Xi. V d nh tr lng
rng c ng gp bi nhiu nhn t nh mt , tit din ngang, chiu cao, cp t; hoc
bin i dng chy, mc xung yu ca lu vc b chi phi bi nhiu nhn t nh lng
ma, dc, a hnh, loi t, che ph thm thc vt, .....
Trong trng hp ny c lng bin ph thuc Y ngi ta cn lp m hnh hi quy nhiu
bin s c th phn nh chnh xc gi tr c lng, d bo Y.
Dng phng trnh tng qut:
Y = a
o
+ b
1
X
1
+ b
2
X
2
+....+ b
n
X
n


V d: Thit lp m hnh d on tr lng rng (M) Tch theo 2 bin s mt (N) v chiu
cao bnh qun (H) theo dng tuyn tnh 2 lp:
M = a + b
1
N + b
2
H
y l dng tuyn tnh 2 lp Y = a + b
1
X
1
+ b
2
X
2

Dng phng php bnh phng ti thiu c lng phng trnh
Nhp s liu

Bng s liu M/N/H
A B C
1 N(c/ha) H(m) M(m3/ha)
2 180 23,0 163,452
3 170 23,0 160,154
4 220 22,3 184,167
... .... .... ......
... .... .... ......
Lng C trong cc kiu rng
Rng nguyn
sinh
Rng khai
thc chn
Rng b ho sau
nng ry
t Nng Lm
kt hp
Cy trng ngn
ngy
ng c chn th
gia sc
y = -188.62Ln(x) + 318.83
R
2
= 0.9538
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Cc kiu s dng rng
C
a
r
b
o
n

t
r
o
n
g

t
h

c

v

t

(
t

n
/
h
a
)


46
A B C
1 N(c/ha) H(m) M(m3/ha)
40 570 10,9 43,846
41 570 11,1 53,212

c lng tng quan tuyn tnh nhiu lp:
o Tools/Data Analysis/Regression.OK. (Data/Data Analysis/Regression
trong MS Office 2007)
o Hp thoi:
Input Y range: Nhp a ch ct bin Y (C th nhp c nhn). Vd: C1:C41.
Input X range: Nhp a ch khi cc bin X (C th nhp c nhn). Vd:
A1:B41.
Label: nh du nu nhp c hng u lm nhn.
Output range: Nhp a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu.
OK.

Khai bo d liu lp m hnh tuyn tnh nhiu lp










47
Kt qu c lng m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh 2 lp
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9256776
R Square 0.856879
Adjusted R Square 0.8491427
Standard Error 28.140919
Observations 40
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 175426.2 87713.1 110.7613 2.40166E-16
Residual 37 29300.72 791.9113
Total 39 204726.9

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept -154.77144 22.13662 -6.99165 2.91E-08 -199.6244851 -109.918392
N (c/ha) 0.1095484 0.016994 6.446152 1.57E-07 0.075114494 0.143982284
H (m) 14.52156 0.97677 14.86692 3.49E-17 12.54243676 16.50068344

Phng trnh tng quan hi quy:
M = - 154.771 + 0.109 N + 14.521 H
Vi N = 40 R = 0.926 Fr = 110.76 vi P<0.00
tb
1
= 6.44 tb
2
= 14.86 vi P<0.00

Lu quan trng: Khi phn tch m hnh nhiu lp, ngoi vic kim tra s tn ti ca h s
tng quan R bng tiu chun F, vi R tn ti khi Significance F (P) < 0.05; ng thi phi
kim tra s tn ti ca cc tham s gn cc bin s Xi bng tiu chun tstat, tham s tn ti
khi P-value < 0.05. (Th hin trong kt qu bng cui cng). Nu mt tham s khng tn ti
th c ngha: i) Bin s (nhn t) khng nh hng n Y, lc ny cn loi bin kh m
hnh; hoc dng ng thng l cha thch hp (lc ny phi chuyn sang dng phi tuyn
xem xt s nh hng ca nhn t ny)
Trong trng hp trn hai bin N v H nh hng r rng n M dng ng thng, vi P
<0.05 rt nhiu.

6.5. Hi quy phi tuyn tnh nhiu lp, t hp bin
Trong trng hp nhiu bin s xi nh hng n y khng theo dng tuyn tnh m c dng
quan h phi tuyn, trng hp ny cn i bin s tr v dng tuyn tnh, hoc lp m hnh
t hp bin.
Mt s dng phi tuyn nhiu lp ph bin v cch quy v tuyn tnh hoc t hp bin:
bn b b
xn x x a y .... 2 1 .
2 1
= tuyn tnh ha: ln(y) = ln(a) + b1.ln(x1) + b2ln(x2) + ... + bnln(xn)
bnxn x b x b
e a y
+ + +
=
... 2 2 1 1
. tuyn tnh ha: ln(y) = ln(a) + b1x1 + b2x2 + ...+ bnxn


48
Hoc dng t hp bin v i bin s kt hp:
ln(y) = a + b1.log(x1.x2) + b2 exp(x3/x4) + .......

Trong Statgraphics, vic tnh ton m hnh kiu ny rt n gin v khng cn to thm cc
ct i bin s, bin s c i trc tip trong hp thoi khi thit lp m hnh.

Cc bc tin hnh nh sau:
i) Kim tra dng chun ca mi bin s, nu cha chun phi i bin s a v
chun (log(x), 1/x, sqrt(x), exp(x), ....)
ii) Chn bin s xi c nh hng n y
iii) Chy m hnh tuyn tnh nhiu lp c i bin s, khi cn thit phi t hp bin
nu cc bin xi c quan h vi nhau
iv) Kim tra m hnh: H s xc nh R
2
c P <0.05 v cc tham s gn bin s qua
kim tra theo t phi c P < 0.05. Nu mt bin s cha bo m P <0.05 th phi
loi khi m hnh hoc i bin s, hoc t hp vi bin s khc.

u tin lp c s d liu trong Excel, bao gm cc trng (ct) bin y v xi, v d nghin
cu pht hin cc nhn t sinh thi nhn tc a bin nh hng n ti sinh rng; bin y l
mt ti sinh (Ntx), bin xi bao gm nhiu nhn t sinh thi v nhn tc

Lp c s d liu a bin trong Excel



Kim tra dng chuNn ca cc bin s trong Statgrahics v nh hng i bin s:
Improve/Regression Analysis/Multiple Factors/Multiple Variable Analysis. Sau a tt c
bin y v xi vo hp thoi data.


49

Chn chng trnh kim tra lut chun v nh hng i bin s chun ha trong
Statgraphics Centurion





























50
Kt qu kim tra lut chun v mi quan h cc bin s


- Kt qu kim tra phn b chun ca cc bin s:
- Summary Statistics
Cphu tbi Da noi Do cao Do day dat Do doc Ket von Luong mua Muc do khai thac
Count 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
Average 39.3158 20.2632 227.211 14.3684 5.31579 12.2632 1400.89 2.63158
Standard
deviation
28.2352 15.7298 14.4167 5.63925 5.82192 13.2826 133.315 0.597265
Coeff. of variation 71.8165% 77.6276% 6.3451% 39.2475% 109.521% 108.313% 9.51641% 22.6961%
Minimum 5.0 1.0 192.0 7.0 1.0 1.0 1231.0 1.0
Maximum 80.0 60.0 258.0 27.0 19.0 40.0 1500.0 3.0
Range 75.0 59.0 66.0 20.0 18.0 39.0 269.0 2.0
Stnd. skewness -0.0680602 1.14805 -0.60383 0.81906 1.93703 1.52115 -1.05608 -2.56858
Stnd. kurtosis -1.59069 0.668059 1.10545 -0.344544 -0.0689246 -0.688123 -1.65147 1.22788
-
Muc do Lua rung Nts pH Vi tri
Count 19 19 19 19
Average 2.10526 868.474 6.63158 2.78947
Standard deviation 0.567131 1054.29 0.260454 0.535303
Coeff. of variation 26.9387% 121.395% 3.92748% 19.1901%
Minimum 1.0 1.0 6.2 1.0
Maximum 3.0 3900.0 7.0 3.0
Range 2.0 3899.0 0.8 2.0
Stnd. skewness 0.0906087 3.63749 0.0232827 -4.72906
Stnd. kurtosis 0.52516 3.5476 -0.823423 6.1244

The StatAdvisor
This table shows summary statistics for each of the selected data variables. It includes measures of central tendency,
measures of variability, and measures of shape. Of particular interest here are the standardized skewness and standardized
kurtosis, which can be used to determine whether the sample comes from a normal distribution. Values of these statistics
outside the range of -2 to +2 indicate significant departures from normality, which would tend to invalidate many of the
statistical procedures normally applied to this data. In this case, the following variables show standardized skewness values
outside the expected range:
Muc do khai thac
Nts
Vi tri
The following variables show standardized kurtosis values outside the expected range:
Nts
Vi tri


51
To make the variables more normal, you might try a transformation such as LOG(Y), SQRT(Y), or 1/Y.

Kt qu cho thy c 3 bin s c Standardized Sk hoc Ku khng bo m c phn b chuNn
l: Nts, Muc do khai thac v Vi tri. V 3 bin ny cn i bin s cc dng LOG(Y), SQRT(Y),
or 1/Y chuNn ha.
i bin s chun ha



Summary Statistics
Cphu tbi Da noi Do cao Do day dat Do doc Ket von Luong mua
Count 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
Average 39.3158 20.2632 227.211 14.3684 5.31579 12.2632 1400.89
Standard deviation 28.2352 15.7298 14.4167 5.63925 5.82192 13.2826 133.315
Coeff. of variation 71.8165% 77.6276% 6.3451% 39.2475% 109.521% 108.313% 9.51641%
Minimum 5.0 1.0 192.0 7.0 1.0 1.0 1231.0
Maximum 80.0 60.0 258.0 27.0 19.0 40.0 1500.0
Range 75.0 59.0 66.0 20.0 18.0 39.0 269.0
Stnd. skewness -0.0680602 1.14805 -0.60383 0.81906 1.93703 1.52115 -1.05608
Stnd. kurtosis -1.59069 0.668059 1.10545 -0.344544 -0.0689246 -0.688123 -1.65147

sqrt(Muc do khai thac) Muc do Lua rung sqrt(Nts) pH log(Vi tri)
Count 19 19 19 19 19
Average 1.60988 2.10526 24.5836 6.63158 0.99811
Standard deviation 0.205131 0.567131 16.697 0.260454 0.273236
Coeff. of variation 12.742% 26.9387% 67.9193% 3.92748% 27.3753%
Minimum 1.0 1.0 1.0 6.2 0.0
Maximum 1.73205 3.0 62.45 7.0 1.09861
Range 0.732051 2.0 61.45 0.8 1.09861
Stnd. skewness -3.07989 0.0906087 1.22414 0.0232827 -5.60515
Stnd. kurtosis 2.6152 0.52516 0.490076 -0.823423 9.35136





52
The StatAdvisor
This table shows summary statistics for each of the selected data variables. It includes measures of central tendency,
measures of variability, and measures of shape. Of particular interest here are the standardized skewness and standardized
kurtosis, which can be used to determine whether the sample comes from a normal distribution. Values of these statistics
outside the range of -2 to +2 indicate significant departures from normality, which would tend to invalidate many of the
statistical procedures normally applied to this data. In this case, the following variables show standardized skewness values
outside the expected range:
sqrt(Muc do khai thac)
log(Vi tri)
The following variables show standardized kurtosis values outside the expected range:
sqrt(Muc do khai thac)
log(Vi tri)
To make the variables more normal, you might try a transformation such as LOG(Y), SQRT(Y), or 1/Y.

V d sau khi th i bin s th bin sqrt(Nts) bo m lut chuNn, trong khi th 2 bin
Muc do khai thac v Vi tri vn cha tha mn; nu tip tc i bin s m cng khng bo
m th c 2 phng n: i) i bin s theo kiu khc; ii) Thu thp thm d liu bo m
chuNn;

Kt qu phn tch ny cng ch ra c cc bin s c quan h vi nhau v nh hng n y
(Nts)
Correlations
Cphu tbi Da noi Do cao Do day dat Do doc Ket von Luong
mua
sqrt(Muc do khai
thac)
Cphu tbi 0.1812 -0.3116 -0.2666 -0.3217 0.5636 0.8266 0.6420
(19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19)
0.4579 0.1940 0.2698 0.1792 0.0120 0.0000 0.0030
Da noi 0.1812 0.1619 -0.4934 0.1835 0.5192 0.3481 0.4579
(19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19)
0.4579 0.5078 0.0318 0.4522 0.0227 0.1442 0.0486
Do cao -0.3116 0.1619 0.1432 0.3592 -0.0287 -0.3695 -0.0594
(19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19)
0.1940 0.5078 0.5587 0.1309 0.9070 0.1194 0.8092
Do day dat -0.2666 -0.4934 0.1432 -0.0680 -0.2313 -0.2668 -0.2309
(19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19)
0.2698 0.0318 0.5587 0.7820 0.3407 0.2695 0.3415
Do doc -0.3217 0.1835 0.3592 -0.0680 0.1117 -0.1692 -0.1966
(19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19)
0.1792 0.4522 0.1309 0.7820 0.6490 0.4885 0.4197
Ket von 0.5636 0.5192 -0.0287 -0.2313 0.1117 0.5135 0.4748
(19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19)
0.0120 0.0227 0.9070 0.3407 0.6490 0.0245 0.0400
Luong mua 0.8266 0.3481 -0.3695 -0.2668 -0.1692 0.5135 0.8012
(19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19)
0.0000 0.1442 0.1194 0.2695 0.4885 0.0245 0.0000
sqrt(Muc do khai thac) 0.6420 0.4579 -0.0594 -0.2309 -0.1966 0.4748 0.8012
(19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19)
0.0030 0.0486 0.8092 0.3415 0.4197 0.0400 0.0000
Muc do Lua rung -0.3769 0.2521 0.1194 0.2478 -0.2294 -0.2546 -0.0520 0.1167
(19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19)
0.1117 0.2979 0.6262 0.3064 0.3449 0.2928 0.8325 0.6343
sqrt(Nts) -0.4810 -0.3686 -0.1715 -0.0247 -0.1215 -0.5421 -0.5983 -0.4547
(19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19)
0.0371 0.1204 0.4826 0.9199 0.6203 0.0165 0.0068 0.0505
pH -0.7690 -0.1160 0.1786 -0.0916 0.2715 -0.5164 -0.6796 -0.6910
(19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19)
0.0001 0.6361 0.4643 0.7093 0.2608 0.0236 0.0014 0.0011
log(Vi tri) 0.2821 -0.3823 -0.1869 0.2069 -0.7285 -0.0642 -0.1223 -0.1035
(19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19)
0.2420 0.1062 0.4436 0.3953 0.0004 0.7940 0.6180 0.6733




53

Muc do Lua rung sqrt(Nts) pH log(Vi tri)
Cphu tbi -0.3769 -0.4810 -0.7690 0.2821
(19) (19) (19) (19)
0.1117 0.0371 0.0001 0.2420
Da noi 0.2521 -0.3686 -0.1160 -0.3823
(19) (19) (19) (19)
0.2979 0.1204 0.6361 0.1062
Do cao 0.1194 -0.1715 0.1786 -0.1869
(19) (19) (19) (19)
0.6262 0.4826 0.4643 0.4436
Do day dat 0.2478 -0.0247 -0.0916 0.2069
(19) (19) (19) (19)
0.3064 0.9199 0.7093 0.3953
Do doc -0.2294 -0.1215 0.2715 -0.7285
(19) (19) (19) (19)
0.3449 0.6203 0.2608 0.0004
Ket von -0.2546 -0.5421 -0.5164 -0.0642
(19) (19) (19) (19)
0.2928 0.0165 0.0236 0.7940
Luong mua -0.0520 -0.5983 -0.6796 -0.1223
(19) (19) (19) (19)
0.8325 0.0068 0.0014 0.6180
sqrt(Muc do khai thac) 0.1167 -0.4547 -0.6910 -0.1035
(19) (19) (19) (19)
0.6343 0.0505 0.0011 0.6733
Muc do Lua rung -0.1064 0.2019 -0.1764
(19) (19) (19)
0.6648 0.4071 0.4699
sqrt(Nts) -0.1064 0.3337 0.1746
(19) (19) (19)
0.6648 0.1627 0.4748
pH 0.2019 0.3337 -0.2960
(19) (19) (19)
0.4071 0.1627 0.2186
log(Vi tri) -0.1764 0.1746 -0.2960
(19) (19) (19)
0.4699 0.4748 0.2186
Correlation
(Sample Size)
P-Value

The StatAdvisor
This table shows Pearson product moment correlations between each pair of variables. These correlation coefficients range
between -1 and +1 and measure the strength of the linear relationship between the variables. Also shown in parentheses is
the number of pairs of data values used to compute each coefficient. The third number in each location of the table is a P-
value which tests the statistical significance of the estimated correlations. P-values below 0.05 indicate statistically
significant non-zero correlations at the 95.0% confidence level. The following pairs of variables have P-values below 0.05:
Cphu tbi and Ket von
Cphu tbi and Luong mua
Cphu tbi and sqrt(Muc do khai thac)
Cphu tbi and sqrt(Nts)
Cphu tbi and pH
Da noi and Do day dat
Da noi and Ket von
Da noi and sqrt(Muc do khai thac)
Do doc and log(Vi tri)
Ket von and Luong mua
Ket von and sqrt(Muc do khai thac)
Ket von and sqrt(Nts)
Ket von and pH
Luong mua and sqrt(Muc do khai thac)


54
Luong mua and sqrt(Nts)
Luong mua and pH
sqrt(Muc do khai thac) and pH

T kt qu ny cho thy Nts b chi phi bi 3 nhn t chnh l: Cphu tbi, Kvon, Luong mua.
T y thit lp m hnh quan h Nts vi 3 bin ny lng ha s nh hng:
Improve/Regression Analysis/Multiple Factors/Mutiple Regression Sau chn cc bin y,
xi vo trong hp thoi. Lu i bin s chuNn ha nh xc nh bc trn.

Vo chng trnh chy m hnh hi quy a bin trong Statgraphics Centurion




















55
Multiple Regression - sqrt(Nts)
Dependent variable: sqrt(Nts)
Independent variables:
Cphu tbi
Ket von
Luong mua

Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
CONSTANT 127.22 53.9381 2.35863 0.0323
Cphu tbi 0.118008 0.21119 0.558777 0.5846
Ket von -0.4484 0.29441 -1.52305 0.1485
Luong mua -0.0726513 0.0430591 -1.68725 0.1122

Analysis of Variance
Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
Model 2230.26 3 743.419 4.00 0.0281
Residual 2787.98 15 185.866
Total (Corr.) 5018.24 18

R-squared = 44.443 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 33.3316 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 13.6333
Mean absolute error = 10.1868
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.17117 (P=0.0106)
Lag 1 residual autocorrelation = 0.363982

The StatAdvisor
The output shows the results of fitting a multiple linear regression model to describe the relationship between sqrt(Nts) and 3
independent variables. The equation of the fitted model is

sqrt(Nts) = 127.22 + 0.118008*Cphu tbi - 0.4484*Ket von - 0.0726513*Luong mua

Since the P-value in the ANOVA table is less than 0.05, there is a statistically significant relationship between the variables
at the 95.0% confidence level.

The R-Squared statistic indicates that the model as fitted explains 44.443% of the variability in sqrt(Nts). The adjusted R-
squared statistic, which is more suitable for comparing models with different numbers of independent variables, is 33.3316%.
The standard error of the estimate shows the standard deviation of the residuals to be 13.6333. This value can be used to
construct prediction limits for new observations by selecting the Reports option from the text menu. The mean absolute error
(MAE) of 10.1868 is the average value of the residuals. The Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic tests the residuals to determine if
there is any significant correlation based on the order in which they occur in your data file. Since the P-value is less than
0.05, there is an indication of possible serial correlation at the 95.0% confidence level. Plot the residuals versus row order to
see if there is any pattern that can be seen.

In determining whether the model can be simplified, notice that the highest P-value on the independent variables is 0.5846,
belonging to Cphu tbi. Since the P-value is greater or equal to 0.05, that term is not statistically significant at the 95.0% or
higher confidence level. Consequently, you should consider removing Cphu tbi from the model.

Kt qu cho thy c 3 bin s u c Pvalue>0.05; do cha tham gia c vo m hnh;
lc ny cn i bin s (log, exp, sqrt, 1/xi, ...) hoc t hp bin bo m s tn ti ca
bin s . Nu mt bin no cha tm c cch i bin s thch hp hoc t hp bin th
cn loi khi m hnh, tuy nhin thc t bin ny c nh hng n y, nhng cha c pht
hin dng bin s thch hp.





56
Kt qu th nghim i bin s, t hp bin, loi bin s
Multiple Regression - sqrt(Nts)
Dependent variable: sqrt(Nts)
Independent variables:
log(Luong mua*Ket von)

Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
CONSTANT 83.901 18.0012 4.66085 0.0002
log(Luong mua*Ket von) -6.68159 1.99815 -3.34389 0.0038

Analysis of Variance
Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
Model 1991.09 1 1991.09 11.18 0.0038
Residual 3027.15 17 178.068
Total (Corr.) 5018.24 18

R-squared = 39.677 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 36.1286 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 13.3442
Mean absolute error = 10.4431
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.34835 (P=0.0522)
Lag 1 residual autocorrelation = 0.293351

The StatAdvisor
The output shows the results of fitting a multiple linear regression model to describe the relationship between sqrt(Nts) and 1
independent variables. The equation of the fitted model is

sqrt(Nts) = 83.901 - 6.68159*log(Luong mua*Ket von)

Since the P-value in the ANOVA table is less than 0.05, there is a statistically significant relationship between the variables
at the 95.0% confidence level.

The R-Squared statistic indicates that the model as fitted explains 39.677% of the variability in sqrt(Nts). The adjusted R-
squared statistic, which is more suitable for comparing models with different numbers of independent variables, is 36.1286%.
The standard error of the estimate shows the standard deviation of the residuals to be 13.3442. This value can be used to
construct prediction limits for new observations by selecting the Reports option from the text menu. The mean absolute error
(MAE) of 10.4431 is the average value of the residuals. The Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic tests the residuals to determine if
there is any significant correlation based on the order in which they occur in your data file. Since the P-value is greater than
0.05, there is no indication of serial autocorrelation in the residuals at the 95.0% confidence level.

In determining whether the model can be simplified, notice that the highest P-value on the independent variables is 0.0038,
belonging to log(Luong mua*Ket von). Since the P-value is less than 0.05, that term is statistically significant at the 95.0%
confidence level. Consequently, you probably don't want to remove any variables from the model.




Plot of sqrt(Nts)
0 20 40 60 80
predicted
0
20
40
60
80
o
b
s
e
r
v
e
d


57
Kt qu thit lp c m hnh:
sqrt(Nts) = 83.901 - 6.68159*log(Luong mua*Ket von)
Vi R-squared = 39.677 percent; Pvalue <0.05
Cc tham s u tn ti vi Pvalue = 0.0038 < 0.05

T m hnh ny cho thy c hai nhn t l lng ma v % kt von nh hng r rt n ti
sinh khu vc nghin cu. Lng ma v kt von gia tng lm gim s cy ti sinh; y l
c s quy hoch cnh quan v p dng bin php lm sinh xc tin tc sinh.

7. M HNH HO QUY LUT PHN B
Trong nghin cu cc lm phn, ngi ta thng khi qut quy lut phn b s cy theo c
knh, chiu cao lm c s cho vic iu tra rng v xc nh cc gii php lm sinh thch
hp dn dt rng. Hoc nghin cu phn b s c th theo tui, th h; phn b s loi
theo tng th, phn b vi sinh vt t theo cc lp t, .... hiu r quy lut sinh hc, sinh
thi hc lm c s qun l ti nguyn thin nhin bn vng.
7.1. M hnh ho phn b gim theo hm Meyer
Hm Mayer c dng: y = .e
-.x
. Kiu dng ny thch hp cho m t m phng phn b s cy
theo c knh (N/D) rng cht chn c dng gim, hoc m phng s gim ca s loi theo
tng, theo c knh, .,,,,,

Trong Excel c chng trnh lp sn tnh quan h Mayer ngay trn th.
V d m phng phn b N/D theo dng Mayer: N = .e
-.D

Nhp s liu: Ct A l gi tr gia c knh (D) ; Ct B l tn s thc nghim (N).

Bng d liu tn s phn b N/D
A B
1 D1,3 (cm) N (c/ha)
2 15 125
3 25 89
4 35 56
5 45 31
6 55 19
7 65 8
8 75 10
9 85 5
10 95 3
11 105 2
12 115 1






58
S dng th v c lng hm Mayer




Phn b Mayer cn c th s dng xem xt phn b s lng c th ca mt loi theo cc
giai on tui. Kiu dng cu trc s cy theo tui (N/A) rng nhit i nhn chung c dng
gim, tui cng cao th s c th cng t, bo m cho s k tc cc th h cy rng v n nh
qun th thc vt rng theo thi gian. Vi c trng cu trc dng gim theo th h, tui nh
vy nn phng thc khai thc chnh ca rng t nhin l cht chn theo cp knh. Khai thc
lp cy thnh thc v nui dng rng trong mt lun k rng phc hi trng thi ban u
v tip tc khai thc ln 2. Vic xc nh c cu trc N/A ca lm phn v N/A theo tng
loi/nhm loi chnh s rt thun tin cho vic xc nh k thut lm sinh nh tui, ng
knh khai thc, lun k,.... Tuy nhin trong thc t vic xc nh A l rt kh khn, do
thng thng c thay bng ng knh, v kiu cu trc ph bin c nghin cu l s
cy theo c knh N/D phc v cho iu tra, xc nh ch tiu k thut nui dng, khai
thc rng. M hnh ho cu trc N/A thng c biu din tt bng hm Mayer vi h s
tng quan R
2
rt cao.




59

V d m hnh cu trc N/A rng hn loi khc tui theo hm Mayer

Rng ma nhit i c khu h thc vt a dng vi thnh loi phong ph, phn b nhiu th
h, cp tui khc nhau. Trn 01 ha rng c th pht hin trn 60 loi cy thn g, ngoi ra
rng ma rt phong ph cc loi dy leo, song my, ru, dng x, phong lan. Cc loi cy
ni chung l a sng, c gng vn ln cnh tranh nh sng, tuy vy cng c loi chu c
tng di v hnh thnh s phn b loi theo tng, theo cp tui, cp knh kh r rt. Trong
thc t vic xc nh tui cy rng l kh khn, do thng nghin cu cu trc s loi theo
cp knh (Nloi/D)

Cu trc s loi theo cp knh rng na rng l u hp bng lng cm xe Dk Lk
N = 102.71e
-0.2862A
R
2
= 0.9843
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155
Cp A (nm)
N
/
h
a
y = 30.511e
-0.3491x
R
2
= 0.987
0
5
10
15
20
25
15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105
Cp knh D1.3 (cm)
N

l
o

i

/
h
a

N loi/ha
Expon. (N loi/ha)


60
Cu trc Nloi/D ca kiu rng na rng u hp bng lng cm xe Dk Lak c kiu dng
phn b l dng gim lin tc, c ngha khi ln tng cao, cp knh ln, s loi chim t l
thp, y l cc loi u th sinh thi. Vi kiu rng ny, s loi trn ha l 70 loi thn g, v
vi c knh thnh thc t 55cm tr ln th s loi cn khong 5 loi. Kiu dng cu trc ny
cng c th m phng tt bng dng hm Mayer.

7.2. M phng phn b thc nghim theo phn b khong cch-hnh hc:
i) Dng phn b khong cch:
x=0
P(x) = (1-).(1-).
x-1
x>=1

Vi x l m s cc c knh t nh n ln 0,1,2,3....
Khi: < (1-)(1-) Phn b c nh ti x=1.
= 1 - Phn b gim c th thay th bng phn b hnh hc.
> (1-)(1-) Phn b gim.

c lng 2 tham s bng phng php cc i hp l:
= N
0
/N
= 1
1
1

=
=

Ni
Ni xi
i
r
i
r
.

Trnh t tnh trong Excel: Vd: M phng phn b N/D c dng 1 nh:
* Ct A: M s x
* Ct B: Gi tr gia c D.
* Ct C: S cy theo c knh. Tng ti C13=sum(c2:c12)
* Ct D: Ni.xi. Ti D2:=A2*C2; copy cho cc di. Tng ti D13

* Tnh 2 tham s:
= C2/Sum(c2:c12)
= 1- Sum(c3:c12)/sum(d2:d12)
* Ct E:Xc sut tng c knh P(xi): E2: Pxo=; E3: Px1 = (1-)(1-)^(a3-1);
copy cho cc di.
* Ct F: Tn s l thuyt: Nlti: F2: =$C$13*E2; copy cho cc di
* Ct G: Tnh
2
tng c v tng. G2: = (f2-c2)^2/f2, copy cho cc di, cng
tng.
* G14: Tra
2
bng (=0,05 ; K = 8-2-1=5): =Chiinv(0.05,5)
Kt qu
2
tnh <
2
bng . Kl: Phn b Khong cch m phng tt phn b thc nghim N/D.











61
Kt qu m phng phn b N/D theo phn b khong cch
A B C D E F G
1 x C D1,3 (cm) N (c/ha) Nixi Px Nlt (c/ha) X2
2 0 15 70 0 0,212121 70 0,00
3 1 25 125 125 0,345444 114 1,06
4 2 35 56 112 0,193985 64 1,00
5 3 45 31 93 0,108932 36 0,68
6 4 55 19 76 0,061171 20 0,07
7 5 65 8 40 0,034351 11 0,98
8 6 75 10 60 0,01929 6 2,08
9 7 85 5 35 0,010832 4 1,82
10 8 95 3 24 0,006083 2
11 9 105 2 18 0,003416 1
12 10 115 1 10 0,001918 1
13 Tng 330 593 0,997543 329 7,70
14 Gamma= 0,212121 X2 bng= 11,07
15 Alpha= 0,561551 K=8-2-1=5

ii) Phn b hnh hc:
P(x) =
x
. (1-) x=0,1,2,3...r
c lng bng phng php cc i hp l:
=
x
x + 1

x =
1
1
N
Ni xi
i
r
.
=

Phn b hnh hc dng m t cc phn b thc nghim dng gim
Trnh t tnh trong Excel: Vd: M phng phn b N/D c dng gim:
* Ct A: M s x
* Ct B: Gi tr gia c D.
* Ct C: S cy theo c knh. Tng ti C13=sum(c2:c12)
* Ct D: Ni.xi. Ti D2:=A2*C2; copy cho cc di. Tng ti D13
* Tnh tham s :
x = D13/c13
= x/(x+1)
* Ct E:Xc sut tng c knh P(xi): E2: Pxo = (1-)^a3; copy cho cc di.
* Ct F: Tn s l thuyt: Nlti: F2: =$C$13*E2; copy cho cc di
* Ct G: Tnh
2
tng c v tng. G2: = (f2-c2)^2/f2, copy cho cc di, cng
tng.
* G14: Tra
2
bng (=0,05 ; K = 8-1-1=6): =Chiinv(0.05,6)

Kt qu
2
tnh <
2
bng . Kl: Phn b hnh hc m phng tt phn b thc nghim N/D.



62
Kt qu m phng phn b N/D theo phn b hnh hc
A B C D E F G
1 x C D1,3 (cm) N (c/ha) Nixi Px Nlt (c/ha) X2
2 0 15 125 0 0,38521 134 0,66
3 1 25 89 89 0,236823 83 0,49
4 2 35 56 112 0,145597 51 0,53
5 3 45 31 93 0,089511 31 0,00
6 4 55 19 76 0,055031 19 0,00
7 5 65 8 40 0,033832 12 1,23
8 6 75 10 60 0,0208 7 1,03
9 7 85 5 35 0,012788 4 0,12
10 8 95 3 24 0,007862 3
11 9 105 2 18 0,004833 2
12 10 115 1 10 0,002971 1
13 Tng 349 557 0,995258 347 4,06
xbq= 1,595989 X2 bng= 12,59
Alpha= 0,61479 K=8-1-1=6


7.3. M phng phn b thc nghim theo phn b Weibull:
Phn b Weibull l phn b xc sut ca bin ngu nhin lin tc vi min gi tr
x(0,+).
Hm mt :
f(x) = .(x - x
min
)
-1
.exp(-(x - x
min
)

Hm phn b:
F(x) = 1 - exp(-(x - x
min
)

Vi x
min
: tr s quan st nh nht.
x: cc gi tr quan st, nu xp theo t th x l gi tr gia mi t.
Khi:
<= 1: Phn b gim.
1<<3:Phn b lch tri
=3: Phn b i xng.
>3: Phn b lch phi.

* c lng 2 tham s v :
Tham s thng c thm d trong mt khong thch hp da trn cc c trng
mu, cho chy tnh . Sau kim tra s ph hp ca phn b l thuyt bng tiu chuNn

2
, chn cp tham s c
2
b nht v nh thua
2
bng.
Tham s c c lng bng phng php cc i hp l:

r



63
= N/ N
i
.(x
i
- x
min
)

i=1

N: Tng dung lng quan st.
N
i
: Tn s t i.
* Tnh xc xut cho tng t:
+ T 1: P(x
1
)=F(x
1
) = 1 - exp(-(x
1
+ A - x
min
)

)
+ T 2: P(x
2
)=F(x
2
) - F(x
1
) = exp(-(x
1
+ A - x
min
)

) - exp(-(x
2
+ A - x
min
)

)
+ T 3: P(x
3
)=F(x
3
) - F(x
2
) = exp(-(x
2
+ A - x
min
)

) - exp(-(x
3
+ A - x
min
)

)
....................................................................................................................
+ T r: P(x
r
)=F(x
r
) - F(x
r-1
) = exp(-(x
r-1
+ A - x
min
)

) - exp(-(x
r
+ A - x
min
)

)
Vi A: gi tr 1/2 c ly t.
* Tn s l thuyt Nlt cho tng t:
Nlt
i
= N.P(x
i
).
* Kim tra s ph hp bng tiu chun
2
.

Kt qu m phng phn b N/D theo hm Weibull
A B C D E F G H
1 C D1,3
(cm)
N
(c/ha)
Alpha N(x-xmin)^alpha Lamda P(x) Nlt (c/ha) X2
2 15 125 1 625,0 0,047710 0,379420 132 0,42
3 25 89 1335,0 0,235460 82 0,57
4 35 56 1400,0 0,146121 51 0,49
5 45 31 1085,0 0,090680 32 0,01
6 55 19 855,0 0,056274 20 0,02
7 65 8 440,0 0,034922 12 1,44
8 75 10 650,0 0,021672 8 0,78
9 85 5 375,0 0,013449 5 0,02
10 95 3 255,0 0,008346 3 0,00
11 105 2 190,0 0,005179 2
12 115 1 105,0 0,003214 1
13 Tng 349 7315,0 1,0 347 3,76
14 X2 bng= 14,07
15 K=9-1-1=7

* Ct A: Gi tr gia c knh 15, 25,....115 vi c ly c 10 cm.
* Ct B: S cy tng c Ni. B13: tng N= Sum(b2:b12)
* C2: a tham s thm d.
* Ct D: Gi tr: Ni(x
i
- 10)

. Vi x
min
=10. Tnh ti d2: =B2*(A2-10)^$C$2, sau
copy cho cc di. D13 tnh tng =Sum(d2:d12).
* E2: Tnh tham s : = B13/Sum(d2:d12).
* Ct F: Tnh xc sut P(x) tng t: Tnh theo cng thc a ch .
* Ct G: Nlt tng t: G2: =$B$13*F2, sau copy xung v tnh tng.
* Ct H: Tnh
2
tng t v tng
2
=3.76


64
* H14: Tra
2
(0.05,7) =Chiinv(0.05,7)=14.07
* KL: Phn b Weibull m phng tt phn b thc nghim.
Ch : chn c ti u, ln lt thay gi tr C2, bng tnh s t ng tnh
li, sau chn mt vi
2
b nht.