The Complete Problem Solver

THE
1981 by THE FRANKLI N I NSTI TUTE

Publ i shed by THE FRANKLI N I NSTI TUTE P RES S
S M
Phi l adel phi a, Pennsyl vani a
Al l rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any
form, for any purpose, or by any means, abstracted, or entered into any
electronic or other data base wi thout specific permission in wri ti ng
from the publ i sher.
Current printing (last digit):
5 4 3 2
Printed in the Uni ted States of Ameri ca
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Hayes, John R 1940-
The complete problem solver,
1. Problem solving. 2. Thought and thinking.
I.Title.
BF441.H33 153.4'3 81-3295
ISBN 0-89168-028-4 AACR2
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Thi s book i s t he r es ul t of ma ny year s ' s ear c hi ng for a sat i sf act ory wa y t o t eac h
a cour s e on ge ne r al pr obl e m s ol vi ng ski l l s. By ge ne r al pr o bl e m s ol v i ng ski l l s I
me a n ski l l s t hat can be us e d by a ny one i n s ol vi ng pr obl e ms t hat oc c ur i n e v e r y da y
l i f e.
T h e i de a t hat I s houl d try t o t eac h a pr obl e m s ol v i ng c our s e arose i n a c onver -
sati on wi t h He r b Si mon and St e ve Ro s e nbe r g i n 1 974. T h e t hr ee of us d e c i d e d t hat
i f we r eal l y k n e w s ome t hi ng us ef ul about pr obl e m s ol vi ng, we ought t o be abl e t o
t each it. St e ve and I , a c c e pt i ng t he c ha l l e nge , put t oge t he r an i ni t i al ver s i on of t he
cour se wh i c h we t he n t aught t o a mi x e d gr oup of e ng i ne e r s and f i ne arts st udent s
at Ca r ne g i e - Me l l o n Uni ver s i t y. Ou r first ver s i on had ma ny f aul t s, but s t udent re-
s pons e wa s sti l l pos i t i ve. I wa s suf f i ci ent l y e nc our a g e d t o c ont i nue. T h e cour s e
t hen und e r we nt a l ong evol ut i on as I bor r owe d i deas f rom a wi d e var i et y of s our ces
and t es t ed t he m i n t he cl assr oom. Ma ny of t hes e i deas c a me f rom pe o pl e wh o , at
one t i me or anot her , ha v e t aught t he c our s e wi t h me :
St e v e n Ro s e n b e r g wh o h e l p e d me t o start t he wh o l e ent er pr i s e,
Li nda F l o we r wh o ma de me s ee t he r e l e v a nc e of pr obl e m s ol vi ng
t o t he cr uci al ski l l of wr i t i ng,
L e e Gr e g g wh o e nc our a g e d me t o t hi nk b i g about t he c our s e, and
L y n n e Re d e r wh o a dde d he r sophi st i cat i on i n t he f i el ds of me mo r y
and de c i s i on maki ng.
Ot he r i deas c a me f rom pe o pl e wh o we r e ge ne r ous e n o u g h t o cont r i but e gue s t
l ect ur es. De l a r e s e Ambr o s e s poke about h o w t o ge t al ong i n smal l gr oups ; Ed wa r d
Const ant , about cul t ur al i nf l uenc es i n cr eat i vi t y; John Ga t c hni g , about r ec ur s i ve
met hods i n pr o bl e m s ol vi ng; Doug l a s Le na t , about heur i s t i cs ; Da v i d Me e k e r ,
about i nf ormat i on r et r i eval ; Rober t Ne c h e s , about l i s t eni ng t o l ec t ur es ; John Pa y ne ,
about de c i s i on maki ng; He r be r t Si mon, about ser i es c ompl e t i on pr obl e ms ; and
Ri char d Te a r e , about pr obl e m s ol vi ng i n e ng i ne e r i ng .
I wo u l d l i ke t o add a s pec i al not e t o t hanks t o John Pa y ne . It wa s t hr ough hi s
exampl e and e nc o ur a g e me nt t hat I a dde d t he s ect i on on de c i s i on ma k i ng t o t he
c our s e a sect i on wh i c h ma ny st udent s ha v e f ound e xt r e me l y us ef ul .
In t e ac hi ng a cour s e on pr obl e m s ol vi ng ski l l s, i t i s e x t r e me l y i mpor t ant t o
pr ovi de st udent s wi t h cl os e per s onal s uper vi s i on. Te a c h i ng pr obl e m s ol v i ng ski l l s
i s a bi t l i ke c oac hi ng: T h e i nst ruct or ne e ds t o wa t c h t he st udent s i n act i on t o be sure
that t hey are per f or mi ng t he ski l l s i n t he ri ght way . As c our s e e nr ol l me nt i nc r eas ed,
i t b e c a me i mpos s i bl e for me t o gi ve t hi s s uper vi s i on mys el f . I ns t ead, I r e l i e d on a
gr oup of t e ac hi ng as s i s t ant s mos t l y unde r g r a dua t e s who v o l unt e e r e d t o super -
vi s e gr oups of about 1 5 st udent s i n we e k l y sect i ons and t o me e t we e k l y wi t h me t o
di scuss sect i on pr obl e ms . T h e s ucces s of t he cour s e has d e p e n d e d v e r y he a v i l y on
t he efforts of t he t e ac hi ng assi stants l i st ed he r e :
Do u g Ba uma n Ke v i n Br o wn
Cy nt hi a Be r kowi t z St e v e Ci a mp i
Sandr a J. Bo nd Aar on Cl e v e n s o n
O16870
Bar bar a Ma de r a Cl e v e n s o n An n e L u x
Da n a Du n n
Bi l l L y d e n
Suz a nne Ec k e r t
Ma r i l y n Ma nt e i
Ca r ol e E l m
John Ma s l a ny
Anna - Le na Er i c s s on- Ne c he s
Da v i d Me e k e r
Be c k y Fr e e l a nd
Er ni e Pr es c ot t
A my Gi f t
Gr e g Pi s oc ky
Ri c har d Gor e l i c k
Sus an Robi ns on
Ma r k Ha nna
Ma r k Se g a l
Ron Ka nde r
Li s a Th a v i u
An n e Kar c he r
Judi Vi t al e
Ri c h Kl e i nha mpl e
Phi l i p We r ne r
Jeanne Kr avanj a El l e n Zo l l
Jami e L e a c h
Jeanne Ha l pi n has t aught t he cour s e v e r y s uc c es s f ul l y on he r o wn. By doi ng so,
s he has de mons t r at e d t he i mpor t ant poi nt t hat t he c our s e i s g e nui ne l y " expor t -
a bl e . "
Fi nal l y, I wa nt t o not e t he v e r y i mpor t ant cont r i but i ons of Sandr a Bond. She
has c oor di nat ed t he c o mpl e x me c ha ni s ms of t he c our s e: ma k i ng sure t hat l ect ur es
got de l i v e r e d, t hat gr adi ng got done , t hat TA' s wi t h di f f i cul t i es got l i s t ened t o, and
t hat hundr e ds of s t udent s f ound t hei r wa y t o we e k l y s ect i on me e t i ng s . S'he s e r ve d
as a t e a c hi ng assi st ant for ma ny year s , cons i s t ent l y r e c e i v i ng e x c e l l e nt eval uat i ons
f rom he r s t udent s . I n addi t i on, she gue s t l e c t ur e d on cr eat i vi t y i n wo me n . She has
al so c ont r i but ed he a v i l y i n t he pr epar at i on of t hi s book. She t y pe d t he manus cr i pt ,
dr e w t he f i gur es , e di t e d and pr oof r ead t he t ext , and di d mu c h of t he r es ear c h and
wr i t i ng for t he f i nal chapt er . I n short, a great deal of t he wo r k y o u s ee i n t hi s book
i s her s.
I n appr ec i at i on, I de di c at e t hi s book t o t he ma ny me nt i o ne d a bov e wh o have
c ont r i but ed t o t hi s proj ect .
CONTENTS
Introduction i
I . P R O B L E M S O L V I N G T H E O R Y A N D P R A C T I C E
One. Unde r s t a ndi ng Pr obl e ms : T h e Pr oc es s of Re pr e s e nt at i on 1
Two. Se ar c h 25
Three. Pr ot ocol Anal y s i s 51
II. ME MO R Y A N D K N O WL E D G E A C Q U I S I T I O N
Four. T h e St r uct ur e of Hu ma n Me mo r y 71
Five. Us i ng Me mo r y Ef f ec t i vel y 93
Six. Le a r ni ng St r at egi es 1 1 3
I I I . D E C I S I O N MA K I N G
Seven. Ge t t i ng t he Fact s St rai ght : Ma k i ng De c i s i ons i n A Co mp l e x
Wor l d 1 45
Eight. T h e L u c k of t he Dr a w: De a l i ng Wi t h Ch a n c e i n De c i s i o n
Ma k i ng 1 61
Nine. Cos t - Be ne f i t Anal ys i s 183
IV. C R E A T I V I T Y A N D I N V E N T I O N
Ten. Co g ni t i v e Pr oc e s s e s i n Cr e a t i v e Act s 1 97
Eleven. Ho w Soci al Condi t i ons Af f ect Cr eat i vi t y 2 1 7
V. A P P E N D I X 1 239
VI . A P P E N D I X 2 243
VI I . I N D E X 2 5 1
I NTRODUCTI ON
Thi s book has t wo pur pos es . I t i s de s i g ne d t o pr ov i de y o u wi t h ski l l s t hat wi l l
ma k e you a bet t er pr o bl e m sol ver , and t o g i v e y o u up- t o- dat e i nf or mat i on about t he
ps y c hol ogy of pr obl e m s ol vi ng.
T h e first pur pos e i s c l ear l y a pract i cal one, but I b e l i e v e t he s e c ond pur pos e i s,
too. I t i s i mpor t ant for p e o p l e t o k no w h o w t hei r mi nds wor k. Ce r t a i nl y for human-
i sti c r e a s o n s k n o wl e d g e of our huma n nat ur e i s v a l ua bl e i n i t s e l f b u t i t i s al so
i mport ant b e c a us e i t pr ov i de s us wi t h a de g r e e of f l exi bi l i t y whi c h we mi ght not
ot her wi s e have . I f we c an e x a mi ne our o wn pr obl e m- s ol v i ng pr oc e s s e s wi t h s ome
de gr e e of unde r s t andi ng, t he n we ha v e a bet t er c ha nc e of i mpr o v i ng t he m. Fur t her ,
i f we ha v e s o me unde r s t a ndi ng of h o w p e o p l e t hi nk, we c an be mor e ef f ect i ve i n
he l pi ng ot her s. An y o n e wh o i s t o t eac h, or t o tutor, or e v e n t o he l p a c hi l d wi t h
home wor k, can be ne f i t f rom k n o wl e d g e of h o w huma n pr obl e m- s ol v i ng pr oc es s es
wor k and h o w t he y c an g o wr ong.
Ear l y i n my c ar eer as a ps yc hol ogi s t , a s t udent a s ke d me a bout my s peci al area
of i nterest. I t ol d hi m t hat I s t udi ed pe opl e ' s t hi nki ng pr oc e s s e s . " Oh , t hi nki ng! " he
sai d, " I k no w al l a bout that. I' m a mat h maj or . " Of c our s e, he di d k no w a l ot about
t h i n k i n g h e k n e w a bout how to do it, at l eas t i n cer t ai n cas es . Gi v e n a mat h
pr obl e m, he c oul d dr a w on a we a l t h of e x pe r i e nc e t o he l p hi m f i nd a sol ut i on. But
i f he we r e l i ke mos t pe o pl e , he wo u l d have- a- ver y di f f i cul t t i me ar t i cul at i ng t hat
we al t h of e x pe r i e nc e ; he k n e w h o w t o t hi nk but he di dn' t k no w h o w t o de s c r i be hi s
o wn t hi nki ng. Wh e n t he y ar e f ac ed wi t h t hei r first t e a c hi ng task, whe t he r i n school
or out , ma ny pr of es s i onal s di s c ove r a vast di f f er enc e b e t we e n t hei r abi l i t y t o do
wha t t he y do v e r y we l l and t hei r abi l i t y t o de s c r i be wha t t he y do t o ot her s.
I n t hi s book, t he n, we ho pe t o pr ov i de y o u wi t h s ome ski l l s t hat wi l l he l p y o u
t o s ol ve pr o bl e ms , but we al so ho pe t o pr ov i de y ou wi t h s ome k n o wl e d g e t hat wi l l
gi ve y ou gr eat er i ns i ght i nt o wha t y ou are do i ng and an i nc r e as e d abi l i t y t o under -
st and ot her s.
WHAT IS A PROBLEM?
I f y o u are on one s i de of a r i ver and y ou want t o get t o t he ot her si de but y ou
don' t k no w h o w, y o u ha v e a pr obl e m. I f y ou are a s s e mbl i ng a mai l - or der pur c has e ,
and t he i nst r uct i ons l e a v e y ou c ompl e t e l y baf f l ed about h o w t o " p ut t ab A i n sl ot
B, " you ha v e a pr obl e m. I f y ou are wr i t i ng a l et t er and y o u j us t can' t f i nd t he pol i t e
wa y t o say, " No , we don' t wa nt y ou t o c o me and stay for a mo nt h, " y o u ha v e a
pr obl em. Wh e n e v e r t her e i s a gap b e t we e n wh e r e y ou are n o w a nd wh e r e y o u wa nt
t o b e , and y ou don' t k n o w h o w t o f i nd a wa y t o cross t hat gap, y o u ha v e a pr obl e m.
Sol v i ng a pr o b l e m me a ns f i ndi ng an appr opr i at e wa y t o cross a gap. T h e pro-
cess of f i ndi ng a s ol ut i on has t wo maj or part s: 1. Re pr e s e nt i ng t he g a p t h a t i s,
unde r s t andi ng t he nat ur e of t he pr obl e m, and 2. Se a r c hi ng for a me a ns t o cross it.
REPRESENTING THE GAP
I f p e o p l e fail t o unde r s t and t he nat ur e of t he gap, t he y ma y we l l set off i n t he
wr ong di r ec t i on t o s ear c h for t he sol ut i on. Suppo s e y o u t ol d a f r i end t hat y o u wo u l d
The Compl et e Problem Solver
gi v e hi m $10, 000 i f he put hi s e l b o w i n hi s ear. " Ea s y , " y our f r i end s ays ; " I ' l l j us t
cut off my e l b o w and put i t i n any ear y ou c ho o s e . " No w y o u ma y ques t i on your
f ri end' s v a l ue s , but y o u are al so pr et t y sure t hat he under s t ands t he nat ur e of t he
di f f i c ul t y t he g a p t h a t t he pr obl e m pr es ent s . On t he ot her hand, i f your f r i end
sai d, " Ea s y , I' l l st and on a chai r , " y ou wo u l d s us pe c t t hat he di dn' t r eal l y under -
st and t he nat ur e of t he di f f i cul t y.
Re pr e s e nt i ng t he g a p i sn' t a l wa y s easy. I n f act, t he mai n di f f i cul t y i n ma ny
pr obl e ms i s j us t t he di f f i cul t y of r e pr e s e nt i ng t he gap. Co ns i de r t he Dr i ver ' s
Li c e ns e Pr obl e m.
Problem 1. The Driver's License
When Tom and Bill appl i ed for their drivers' l i censes, they wer e asked their
ages. Bil l , who was a bit of a revolutionary, said they were both in their twenti es and
that was all he was goi ng to reveal to a bunch of bureaucrats. The clerk insisted on
more specific information so, to smooth things over, Tom added that they both had
the same birthday, and that he was four times as old as Bill was when he was three
times as ol d as Bill was when he was t wi ce as old as Bill was. At this the clerk fainted
and the two snatched up their licenses and disappeared. When the clerk came to and
real i zed that he woul d have to compl ete his records some way or other he began to
do a little figuring, and before l ong had found out how old the two were. Can you
tell, too?
A t ypi cal r eact i on t o t hi s pr obl e m i s t o say, " Wh a t ? " or beat a hast y ret reat
expl ai ni ng, " I ne v e r wa s mu c h good at puz z l e s . " But t he pr o b l e m r eal l y i sn' t v e r y
di f f i cul t onc e we f i nd an appr opr i at e r epr es ent at i on for it. I n Cha pt e r 1 , we wi l l
di s cus s pr oc e s s e s by wh i c h we c o me t o under s t and t he nat ur e of a pr obl e m; we wi l l
s how t hat t he wa y we r e pr e s e nt t he gap can ma k e an e nor mous di f f er enc e i n t he
di f f i cul t y of t he pr o bl e m; and we wi l l pr ov i de s ome hi nt s on h o w t o r epr es ent
pr obl e ms t o ma k e t he m easi er .
FINDING A SOLUTI ON PATH
On c e we unde r s t and t he nat ur e of a pr obl e m, t her e ar e sti l l ma ny r easons wh y
we ma y ha v e di f f i cul t y i n f i ndi ng a sol ut i on t o it. T h e pr obl e ms b e l o w i l l ust rat e
s ome of t he mos t i mpor t ant r easons.
Problem 2. The Loser
A man once offended a fortune teller by l aughi ng at her predictions and saying
that fortune tel l i ng was all nonsense. He offended her so much, in fact, that she cast
a spell on hi m whi ch turned him into both a compul si ve gambl er and in addition a
consistent loser. That was pretty mean. We woul d expect the spell woul d shortly
have turned him into a mi serabl e, i mpoveri shed wreck. Instead, he soon married a
weal thy busi nesswoman who took hi m to the casino every day, gave him money, and
smi l ed happi l y as he lost it at the roulette table. They l i ved happi l y in just this way
ever after. Why was the man' s wi f e so happy to see hi m l ose?
Thi s st ory pos e s a pr obl e m for mos t of us wh e n we fi rst s e e it. I t wo u l d be no
pr obl e m i f t he man we r e wi nni ng mone y . We k no w r i ght a wa y h o w t o get f rom
wi nni ng mo ne y t o ha ppy s mi l es , but t o get f rom l os i ng mo ne y t o happy s mi l es i s a
p r o b l e mt h e r e i s a g a p t hat we can' t i mme di a t e l y cross. Ho w can l os i ng mone y
l ead t o ha ppi ne s s ?
I n t r yi ng t o br i dg e t he gap, pe o pl e pr opos e a var i et y of sol ut i ons:
" Pe r ha ps s he i s s o ri ch t hat s he r eal l y does n' t car e about t he mo ne y . "
" Pe r ha ps she i s b e c o mi n g a nun and want s t o g i v e al l her mo n e y a wa y . "
" Pe r ha ps her cr az y gr andf at her l ef t a wi l l whi c h r e qui r e d her t o l os e al l her
mo ne y by 21 i n or der t o i nher i t a bi l l i on. "
" Pe r ha ps s he i s a mas oc hi s t . "
Introduction
T h e s e sol ut i ons var y i n qual i t y. T h e sol ut i on about t he wo ma n b e c o mi ng a nun
has t he di f f i cul t y t hat i t i gnor es her hus band. A s ol ut i on whi c h s e e ms t o us bet t er
t han al l of t he s e i s t hi s: Wh e n pl a y i ng r oul et t e, t he ma n be t s , say, on r ed and l os es ,
as hi s spel l r equi r es . T h e wo ma n, ho we v e r , bet s t wi c e as muc h on bl ac k and wi ns .
I n short, s he has t ur ne d her hus band' s mi sf or t une i nt o an advant age. Hi s l oss i s
t hei r gai n, and s o t he s mi l es . T h e g a p i s cr os s ed.
T h e pr o bl e m i l l ust rat es a ve r y i mpor t ant pr oc es s i n pr o bl e m s o l v i n g t h e
pr oces s of i nvent i on. I n ma ny pr obl e ms , l ots of appr oac he s are c o n c e i v a b l e s o me
of t he m bet t er t han ot her s. Ty pi c a l l y , a per s on wi l l try s ever al appr oac hes bef or e
hi t t i ng on a good one . I f pe o pl e can' t t hi nk up any appr oac he s , t hen t he y can' t s ol ve
t he pr obl e m.
I nve nt i on i s an i mpor t ant pr obl e m- s ol v i ng pr oc es s , but i t i sn' t t he onl y pr oces s
r equi r ed i n s ol v i ng pr obl e ms . Th e r e are ma ny pr obl e ms i n whi c h i nvent i on i s eas y
but t he pr o bl e m i s sti l l di f f i cul t .
Problem 3. The Combination Lock
Suppos e t hat y ou ha v e t he pr obl e m of o pe ni ng t he 10-di al c ombi nat i on l ock
s hown a bov e . Pr opos i ng pos s i bl e sol ut i ons i s easy. T h e di al set t i ng s ho wn may be
a s o l u t i o n a n d i t ma y not. The r e i s a total of 1 0
1 0
or 10, 000, 000, 000 or t en bi l l i on
pos s i bl e di al s et t i ngs , any one of whi c h ma y be t he sol ut i on. Thi s i s wh e r e t he
di f f i cul t y of t he pr o bl e m l i e s f i n d i n g t he s i ngl e cor r ect c ombi nat i on a mo ng t en
bi l l i on pos s i bi l i t i es . I f we t ri ed one c ombi nat i on e v e r y s e c ond, wor ki ng day and
ni ght , i t wo u l d t ake us 3 1 7 year s t o try t he m al l . Some pr obl e ms , t hen, l i ke t he
Combi na t i on Lo c k Pr o bl e m, are di f f i cul t t o s ol ve be c a us e we ha v e t o s ear ch for t he
sol ut i on a mo ng a ve r y l ar ge numb e r of al t er nat i ves.
T h e f ol l owi ng pr o bl e m i s a di f f i cul t one, e v e n t hough i t i nv ol v e s nei t her i nve n-
ti on nor e x a mi ni ng l ar ge numbe r s of al t er nat i ves.
Problem 4. The Rational Investor
Suppose that you have a choi ce bet ween a safe i nvestment whi ch yi el ds a sure
25% return and a risky i nvestment whi ch gives you an even chance of either tripling
your money or of l osing it. Whi ch investment is best?
T h e di f f i cul t y of pr act i cal de c i s i on maki ng d e ma n d e d by pr obl e ms l i ke thi s one
l i es i n e v al uat i ng t he al t er nat i ves . Pe o pl e are of t en unr e l i abl e wh e n ma k i ng s uc h
eval uat i ons. I f t he y c hoos e f rom t he s ame al t er nat i ves on s ever al di f f er ent occa-
si ons, t he resul t s ma y be qui t e i nconsi st ent .
Whi c h of t he t wo i nves t ment s i s be s t de pe nds i n a c o mpl e x wa y on t he i n-
vest or' s f i nanci al c i r c ums t anc es . To eval uat e t he al t er nat i ves ac c ur at el y, mos t pe o-
pl e r equi r e expl i c i t de c i s i on pr oc e dur e s s uch as t hos e de s c r i be d i n Cha pt e r 7.
Some pr obl e ms are di f f i cul t be c a us e we have t r oubl e r e me mb e r i ng whe r e we
are on our pat h t o t he sol ut i on. Tr y t o s ol ve Pr o bl e m #5 be f or e r e adi ng f urther.
Probl em 5. Cats Among Pi geons
Messrs. Downs, Heath, Field, Forest, and Marshf i ve elderly pigeon
fanci erswere worried by the depredations of marauding cats owned by five not
less elderly ladies, and, hoping to get control of the cats, they married the cat
owners.
The scheme worked well for each of them so far as his own cat and pigeons were
concerned; but it was not long before each cat had claimed a victim and each fancier
had lost his favorite pigeon.
Mrs. Downs' cat killed the pigeon owned by the man who married the owner
of the cat whi ch killed Mr. Marsh's pigeon. Mr. Downs' pigeon was killed by Mrs.
Heath's cat. Mr. Forest's pigeon was killed by the cat owned by the lady who
married the man whose pigeon was killed by Mrs. Fiel d' s cat.
Who was the owner of the pigeon killed by Mrs. Forest's cat?
(from Phillips, 1961)
Unl e s s y o u are an exper t i n s ol vi ng t hi s sort of pr obl e m, y o u ma y have had s ome
di f f i cul t y i n k e e p i ng t rack of your pl ac e on your wa y t o t he sol ut i on. You may have
f ound your s el f as ki ng ques t i ons l i ke, " Wa s n' t Mr s . Mar s h t he l ady wh o ate t he cat
that mar r i ed Mr . For es t ' s p i g e o n ? Or wa s i t t he ot her wa y a r o und? " Be i ng abl e t o
r e me mb e r y our pl a c e on t he sol ut i on pat h i s a cri t i cal pr o bl e m s ol vi ng ski l l .
Cons i de r Pr o bl e m #, but don' t c ons i der i t for v e r y l ong.
' ) .
Probl em 6. Who' s Got the Enthal py?
Li qui d water at 212 F and 1 atm has an internal energy (on an arbitrary basis)
of 180.02 Btu/Ibm. The specific volume of liquid water at these conditions is 0.01672
fif/lbm. What is its enthalpy?
(from Smith and Van Ness, 1959)
Pr obl e m #6 i s not a v e r y di f f i cul t pr o bl e m i f y o u k no w s ome t hi ng about
t he r mody na mi c s . I f y o u don' t , h o we v e r i f , for e x a mpl e , y o u hav e n' t t he f oggi es t
i dea wha t e nt ha l py i s t h e n it' s an i mpos s i bl y har d pr obl e m. I pr e s e nt thi s pr ob-
l e m not t o ma k e y o u f eel bacj, put t o dr amat i ze t he e xt r e me i mpor t anc e of knowl -
e dg e i n pr o b l e m s ol vi ng. I f y o u are mi s s i ng r el evant k n o wl e d g e , an eas y pr obl e m
may appear di f f i cul t or i mpos s i bl e . I f y our k n o wl e d g e of mat h and s c i e nc e i s we a k,
t he pr obl e ms t hat sci ent i st s s ol ve may appear muc h har der t o y o u t han t hey r eal l y
are. I f t he humani t i es or t he arts are y our we a k sui t, t hen pe o pl e wh o can under -
st and phi l os ophy or wh o c an i nt er pr et a mus i c al score may s e e m magi c al l y i nt el l i -
gent t o you. T h e moral i s t hi s: Mu c h that pas s es for c l e v e r ne s s or i nnat e qui c kne s s
/V
Introduction
of mi nd act ual l y de pe nds on s pe c i al i z e d k no wl e dg e . I f y o u ac qui r e t hat s pe c i al i z e d
knowl e dg e , y ou t oo may be abl e t o s ol ve har d pr obl e ms and appear c l e v e r t o your
l ess l ear ned f r i ends.
ORGANI ZATI ON OF THE BOOK
T h e six pr obl e ms a bov e i l l ust rat e six i mpor t ant aspect s of huma n pr obl e m
s ol vi ng whi c h we wi l l e mpha s i z e :
Problem 1: Repr es ent at i on
Problem 2: I nv e nt i on
Problem 3: Sear c h for t he Sol ut i on Amo n g Ma ny Al t er nat i ves
Problem 4: De c i s i o n Ma k i ng
Problem 5: Me mo r y
Problem 6: Kn o wl e d g e
T h e book i s di v i de d i nt o f our sect i ons:
Section I . Pr obl e m Sol v i ng The o r y and Pr act i ce ( r epr es ent i ng pr obl e ms and
s e ar c hi ng for sol ut i ons)
Section II. Me mo r y and Kn o wl e d g e Ac qui s i t i on
Section III. De c i s i o n Ma k i ng
Section IV. Cr eat i vi t y and I nvent i on
Whi l e t he or der i n whi c h y o u r ead Sect i ons 1, 2, 3, and 4 i s not cri t i cal for
under s t andi ng, I do r e c o mme n d that y o u r ead Sec t i on 1 first for an o v e r v i e w of t he
pr obl em- s ol vi ng pr oc es s .
REFERENCES
Phi l l i ps , H. My Best Puzzles in Logic and Reasoning. Ne w York: Do v e r , 1 961 .
Smi t h, J. M. , and Va n Ne s s , H. C. Introduction to Chemical Engineering Thermo-
dynamics, S e c o nd Edi t i on. Ne w York: Mc Gr a w- Hi l l , I nc. , 1 959.
ONE.
UNDERSTANDING PROBLEMS:
THE PROCESS OF REPRESENTATION
Us ual l y wh e n we s ol v e a pr obl e m, we put mos t of our at t ent i on on t he pr o bl e m
and v e r y l i t t l e at t ent i on on o u r s e l v e s t h a t i s, on wha t we are doing t o s ol ve t he
pr obl em. I f we di d at t end t o our o wn act i ons, we mi ght not i c e t hat t he y of t en oc c ur
i n a char act er i st i c s e q ue nc e :
1. Finding the Problem: r e c og ni z i ng t hat t her e i s a pr o bl e m t o be s ol ved.
2. Representing the Problem: unde r s t andi ng t he nat ur e of t he gap t o be
cr os s ed.
3. Planning the Solution: c hoos i ng a me t ho d for c r os s i ng t he gap.
4. Carrying Out the Plan
5. Evaluating the Solution: as ki ng " Ho w good i s t he r e s ul t ? " o nc e t he pl an i s
car r i ed out .
6. Consolidating Gains: l ear ni ng f rom t he e x pe r i e nc e of s ol vi ng.
Thi s s e q u e n c e of act i ons i s i l l ust r at ed i n t he f ol l owi ng pr obl e m.
Action Problem
Finding the Problem I obs e r v e Smi t h, wh o c l ai ms t o be t oo poor t o
r e pay t he $50. 00 he o we s me , b u y i ng r ound
after r ound of dr i nks for hi s f r i ends.
Representing the Problem I c onc l ude t hat Smi t h i s not suf f i ci ent l y se-
ri ous a bout r e pa y i ng hi s debt .
Planning the Solution I c ons i der a pol i t e t e l e pho ne cal l or a not e
r e mi ndi ng Smi t h of hi s i nde bt e dne s s , but de -
c i de i ns t ead t o ask t hr ee v e r y l ar ge f r i ends of
mi ne t o cal l on Smi t h i n per s on.
Carrying Out the Plan I cal l my f r i ends, wh o t hen de l i v e r my me s -
s age t o Smi t h.
Evaluating the Solution Si nc e Smi t h pai d up r api dl y wi t hout maj or
bl oods he d, I r egar d t he pr o bl e m as sati sf ac-
t ori l y s ol ved.
2 The Compl et e Problem Solver
Consolidating Gains I r evi s e my r ul es for l e ndi ng mo ne y t o Smi t h
and r ef l ect on t he v a l ue of ha v i ng a f e w l arge
f ri ends.
I n e as y pr obl e ms , we ma y go t hr ough t hes e act i ons i n or der and wi t hout any
di f f i cul t i es. I n har d pr obl e ms , t hough, we ma y ha v e t o do a gr eat deal of backt rack-
i ng. For e x a mpl e , wh e n we e val uat e wha t we ha v e done , we ma y de c i de that our
s ol ut i on i s t er r i bl e, e. g. , " As be s t os br e ad wi l l not s ol ve t he b u r ne d t oast pr obl e m! ! "
and go ba c k t o pl anni ng. Or whi l e t r yi ng t o e x e c ut e a s ol ut i on, we ma y di s c over
s ome t hi ng about t he pr o bl e m whi c h wi l l l e ad us t o r e pr e s e nt i t i n an ent i r el y n e w
w a y " O h , n o w I s e e wha t ki nd of a pr obl e m i t i s ! " Re t r ac i ng of t hi s sort i s
char act er i st i c of pr obl e ms t hat are c al l e d " i l l - de f i ne d. " We wi l l di s c us s t hes e i n
mu c h mor e det ai l l at er.
Ou r s uc c es s a s pr o b l e m sol ver s d e p e nd s on t he ef f ec t i venes s wi t h wh i c h we
can carry out e a c h of t he s e si x act i ons. I n thi s chapt er , we wi l l e x a mi ne t he nat ur e
of pr o bl e m r epr es ent at i ons and t he pr oc es s es pe o pl e us e t o f orm t hem. I n addi t i on,
we wi l l de s c r i be t e c hni que s for i mpr ov i ng r epr es ent at i ons s o t hat t he y ma k e pr ob-
l e m s ol vi ng easi er . I n t he next c hapt er we wi l l di s c us s pl anni ng, e xe c ut i ng, eval uat -
i ng, and c ons ol i dat i ng. We wi l l de l a y t he di s c us s i on of pr o bl e m f i ndi ng unt i l t he
fi nal s ect i on of t he b o o k b e c a us e t hi s t opi c i s so c l os e l y r el at ed t o t he t opi c of
creat i vi t y.
HOW DO PEOPLE UNDERSTAND PROBLEMS?
Suppo s e we we r e t o s py on pe o pl e as t hey we r e t r yi ng t o unde r s t and a n e w
pr obl e m, s uc h as t he Mons t e r Pr o bl e m b e l o w.
Monster Problem #1
Three fi ve-handed extra-terrestrial monsters were hol di ng three crystal globes.
Because of the quantum-mechanical peculiarities of their nei ghborhood, both
monsters and gl obes come in exactly three sizes with no others permitted; small,
medi um, and large. The medi um-si zed monster was hol di ng the small gl obe; the
small monster was hol di ng the large gl obe; and the large monster was hol di ng the
medi um-si zed gl obe. Si nce this situation offended their keenl y devel oped sense of
symmetry, they proceeded to transfer gl obes from one monster to another so that
each monster woul d have a gl obe proportionate to its own size.
Monster etiquette compl i cated the solution of the probl em since it requires:
1. that only one gl obe may be transferred at a time, 2. that if a monster is hol di ng two
gl obes, only the larger of the two may be transferred, and 3. that a gl obe may not be
transferred to a monster who is hol di ng a larger gl obe.
By what sequence of transfers coul d the monsters have sol ved this probl em?
We mi g ht s e e p e o p l e r e adi ng t he pr obl e m over s ever al t i mes and paus i ng over
t he har d part s. We mi g ht s e e t he m dr a wi ng s ket c hes or wr i t i ng s y mbol s on paper ,
and we mi ght hear t he m mut t er t o t he ms e l v e s , s ome t hi ng l i ke: " Le t ' s s e e . . . I f a
mons t er i s hol di ng t wo g l obe s . . . Wha t doe s t hi s me a n ? . . . " If we we r e t o ask
pe o pl e t o " t hi nk a l o ud" as t he y wo r k e d on t he pr o bl e m, we wo u l d f i nd t hat t hei r
r eadi ng, s ket c hi ng, and mut t e r i ng r ef l ect ed a whi r l wi nd of i nt ernal
a c t i v i t i e s i ma g i ng , i nf er enc i ng, de c i s i on maki ng, and r e t r i e vi ng of k no wl e dg e
f rom me mo r y a c t i v i t i e s whi c h are di r e c t e d t owar d " unde r s t a ndi ng t he pr obl e m. "
I f we l ook i n mor e det ai l , we wo u l d f i nd t hat pe o pl e are s e l e c t i ng i nf ormat i on and
i ma gi ng obj ect s and r el at i ons i n t he pr obl e m. For e x a mpl e , after r eadi ng t he first
l i ne of t he Mons t e r Pr o bl e m, a per s on mi ght f orm a vi s ual i ma g e of t hr ee bl obs , e a c h
t ouc hi ng a ci r cl e. T h e i ma g i ne d bl obs and ci r cl es , of c our s e, c or r es pond t o t he
mons t er s and t he g l obe s , and t ouc hi ng i n t he i ma g e c or r es ponds t o t he rel at i on of
hol di ng. T h e i mage s us ual l y ref l ect s ome s el ec t i on of i nf or mat i on, e. g. , t he bl obs
Understanding Probl ems: The Process of Representation 3
may ha v e no hands , or t he ci r cl es ma y g i v e no i ndi c at i on t hat t he gl obe s are
cryst al i ne.
To unde r s t and a pr obl e m, t hen, t he pr obl e m s ol ver cr eat es ( i magi nes ) obj ect s
and rel at i ons i n hi s he a d whi c h c or r e s pond t o obj ect s a nd r el at i ons i n t he ext er nal l y
pr e s e nt e d pr obl e m. T h e s e i nt ernal obj ect s and r el at i ons are t he pr o bl e m sol ver' s
internal representation of t he pr obl e m. Si nc e pe o pl e cr eat e t he m, di f f er ent pe o pl e
may cr eat e di f f er ent i nt ernal r epr es ent at i ons of t he s ame pr obl e m.
Fr e que nt l y , pr obl e m sol ver s wi l l ma k e an external representation of s ome
parts of t he pr obl e m. They do t hi s by dr a wi ng s ket c hes and di agr ams or by wr i t i ng
doj yj cLsymhol s. or equat i ons wh i c h c or r es pond t o parts oFthe i nt er nal r epr es ent a-
t i on. Suc h ext er nal r epr es ent at i ons can be e nor mous l y hel pf ul i n s ol v i ng pr obl e ms .
The Relation of Internal and External Representations
Some t i me s we c an s ol v e a pr obl e m us i ng only an i nt er nal r epr es ent at i on. For
exampl e, mos t of us c an mul t i pl y 1 7 by 23 ent i r el y i n our he a ds and, wi t h a l i t t l e
effort, get t he r i ght ans we r . Ma n y pr obl e ms , ho we v e r , are v e r y di f f i cul t t o s ol ve
wi t hout t he ai d of an ext er nal r epr es ent at i on. T h e Mons t e r Pr o bl e m and t he
Dr i ver ' s Li c e n s e Pr o bl e m i n t he I nt r oduct i on are e x a mpl e s of s uc h pr obl e ms .
Whi l e i t i s pos s i bl e t o s ol ve t he Mons t e r Pr o b l e m ent i r el y ment al l y, i t i s ve r y
di f f i cul t t o k e e p t rack of whe r e y o u are i n thi s pr obl e m wi t hout an ext er nal r epr e-
sent at i on. Yo u f i nd y our s e l f as ki ng ques t i ons l i ke, " Di d I gi v e t he smal l g l obe t o t he
bi g mons t er or di dn' t I ? " I n t he Dr i ve r ' s Li c e ns e Pr o bl e m, i f y o u don' t i nv e nt and
wr i t e d o wn a g ood al ge br ai c not at i on, y o u are v e r y l i ke l y t o c onf us e s uc h t hi ngs as
Tom' s age now wi t h hi s age at an ear l i er t i me.
Ext er nal r epr es ent at i ons , t hen, are of t en v e r y hel pf ul i n s ol v i ng di f f i cul t pr ob-
l ems . We s houl d not e, t hough, t hat ext er nal r epr es ent at i ons can't help us at all
unless we also have an internal representation of the problem. I ma g i ne t hat we are
pl ayi ng c hes s . I n f ront of us t he c hes s boar d and pi e c e s pr ov i de a v e r y us ef ul
ext ernal r epr es ent at i on of t he c hes s game . But wh e n we ma k e a mo v e , we t ypi c al l y
try i t i n our he a ds be f or e ma k i ng i t on t he boar d. Pl a nni ng i s do ne i nt er nal l y.
Fur t her , we c oul dn' t ma k e mo v e s ei t her i n our he ads or on t he boar d i f we di dn' t
have an i nt er nal r epr es ent at i on of h o w e a c h pi e c e mo v e s . I n short , i nt el l i gent pl ay
wo ul d be i mpos s i bl e wi t hout an i nt ernal r epr es ent at i on.
I n s ummar y:
1. An i nt er nal r epr es ent at i on i s essent i al for intelligent pr o b l e m s ol vi ng. I nt er nal
r epr es ent at i ons are t he me d i u m i n whi c h we t hi nk, i n t he s ame wa y t hat wor ds
are t he me d i u m i n wh i c h we tal k. Wi t hout i nt ernal r epr es ent at i ons , we can' t
t hi nk t hr ough t he s ol ut i on of a pr obl e m, j us t as wi t hout wor ds we can' t speak.
2. Some t i me s an i nt er nal r epr es ent at i on i s suf f i ci ent for s ol vi ng. I f we we r e v e r y
ski l l f ul , we c oul d pl ay " bl i ndf ol d c he s s , " t hat i s, we c oul d pl ay us i ng onl y our
i nt ernal r epr es ent at i on, but i t woul dn' t be easy.
3. For ma ny pr o bl e ms , an ext ernal r epr es ent at i on i s very hel pf ul . We wi l l e xpl or e
how ext ernal r epr es ent at i ons can he l p l at er i n t hi s chapt er .
WHAT DO WE NEED TO REPRESENT IN
AN INTERNAL REPRESENTATION?
Cons i de r t he Mons t e r Pr o bl e m di s c us s e d pr evi ous l y. I f we are t o s ol ve t hi s
pr obl em, t her e are f our pr o bl e m parts t hat we n e e d t o i nc l ude i n our i nt ernal
r epr esent at i on:
1 . The Go a l wh e r e we wa nt t he gl obe s t o be wh e n we are done .
at all about h o w t he mons t er s we r e ar r anged. You ma y al s o ha v e a dde d s hapes for
t he monst ers s uc h as t hos e s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 1.
Figure 1. A Representati on of t he Monster Probl em
Sel ecting Informati on
Whi l e y ou pr oba bl y a d d e d s ome det ai l s, y o u pr oba bl y l ef t ot hers out . For
exampl e, your i ma g e of t he pr o bl e m si t uat i on pr oba bl y di dn' t cont ai n any t hi ng
about " t he qua nt umme c ha ni c a l pe c ul i a r i t i e s " of t he mons t e r s ' ne i ghbor hood.
Ve r y l i kel y y o u r e g a r de d t hi s mat eri al as " j ust part of t he c ov e r s t or y" a nd not r eal l y
r el evant t o t he s ol ut i on of t he pr obl e m. Fur t her , y o u ma y ha v e r e c o g ni z e d t hat t he
numbe r of mons t e r hands i s i r r el evant and l ef t t hat out of y our r epr es ent at i on as
wel l . Re l e v a nc e j udg me nt s s uc h as t hes e are usef ul b e c a us e t he y a l l ow us t o par e
our r epr es ent at i ons d o wn t o ma na g e a bl e si ze.
I n a s t udy e xpl or i ng r e l e v a nc e j udg me nt s i n pr o bl e m s ol v i ng ( Ha y e s , Wat er -
man, and Robi ns on, 1 977) , t he e x pe r i me nt e r r ead pr obl e ms al oud whi c h t he s ub-
j ect s had not he ar d be f or e and as ked t he m t o ma k e r e l e v a nc e j udg me nt s . T h e
pr obl ems we r e pr e s e nt e d i n smal l pi e c e s s o t hat t he subj ect s c oul d ma k e separ at e
j udgme nt s about e a c h pi e c e . A t ypi cal s es s i on for t he " Al l s por t s P r o b l e m" pro-
c e e de d as f ol l ows :
Expe r i me nt e r ( r eadi ng pr obl e m) : " I we n t t o t e a . "
Subj ect : " No t r e l e v a nt . "
Ex p
Sub
Ex p
Sub
Ex p
Sub
Ex p
Sub
Ex p
Sub
" Ye s t e r da y . "
" Re l e v a n t t h i s ma y be s ome sort of a t i me p r o b l e m. "
" Wi t h an ol d f r i end. "
" Ma y b e t he ' ol d' i s i mpor t ant i f t hi s i s a t i me pr obl e m. No , I' l l say
i r r el evant . "
" Mr s . Al l s por t s . "
" Re l e v a nt . Pr oba bl y an i mpor t ant pe r s on. "
" S h e has t hr ee daught er s : Ame l i a , Be l l a, and Ce l i a . "
" OK, n o w we ' r e i nt o it. It' s g oi ng t o be a bout t he daught er s . Re l e v a nt . "
" On t he door s t ep, I me t anot her f r i end. "
" I r r e l e v a nt . "
Ev e n on first r e adi ng, subj ect s we r e qui t e ac c ur at e i n t hei r r e l e v a nc e j udg-
ment s. T h e y cor r ect l y i dent i f i ed mor e t han 80 pe r c e nt of t he mat er i al i n t he t ext
whi c h was act ual l y r el evant , whi l e r ej ect i ng mor e t han 40 pe r c e nt of t he t ext as
i rrel evant . Cl e ar l y, r e l e v a nc e j udg me nt s c an he l p us t o f ocus on t he i mpor t ant parts
of t he pr obl e m and t hus ma k e our t ask of bui l di ng a r epr es ent at i on easi er .
Ho w do pe o pl e ma k e r e l e v a nc e j udg me nt s ? T h e Ha y e s , Wa t e r ma n, and Robi n-
son st udy s ugges t s t hat one v e r y i mpor t ant f actor i s t he per s on' s k no wl e d g e of
pr obl em t ypes . A s ophi s t i cat ed pr obl e m s ol ver r e c ogni z e s ma ny pr obl e m t ype s ,
such as di st ance- r at e- t i me pr obl e ms , a g e pr obl e ms , r i ver - cr os s i ng pr obl e ms , and s o
on. On c e t he pr o bl e m s ol ver has i dent i f i ed t he pr o b l e m t y pe , j udg i ng wha t i s
r el evant for s ol ut i on i s mu c h easi er . For e xampl e , i n anot her s t udy ( Hi ns l ey, Ha y e s ,
and Si mon, 1 977) , t he e x pe r i me nt e r had pr e s e nt e d onl y t he first t hr ee wor ds of t he
pr obl e m, " A r i ver s t e a me r . . . " At t hi s poi nt t he s ubj ect sai d, " I t ' s goi ng t o be one
of t hos e r i ver t hi ngs wi t h ups t r eam, downs t r e a m, and sti l l wat er . [ She wa s r i ght ]
Yo u are g o i ng t o c ompa r e t i mes ups t r eam and d o wn s t r e a mo r i f t he t i me i s con-
stant i t wi l l be di s t anc e . " By r e c og ni z i ng t he pr o bl e m t y pe , t he s ubj ect coul d
pr e di c t t hat any me nt i on of s pe e d ei t her ups t r eam or downs t r e a m wo u l d be i mpor-
t ant for sol ut i on, and t hat t he name s of t he boat , t he capt ai n, a nd t hei r dest i nat i on
wo u l d b e i r r el evant .
I f y o u wa nt t o be qui c k i n f i ndi ng t he essent i al parts of a pr o bl e m, k no wl e dg e
of pr o bl e m t ypes can be a gr eat he l p.
Usi ng Knowl edge to Interpret Probl ems
Wh e n we f orm a pr o bl e m r epr es ent at i on, we not onl y a dd i nf or mat i on and
de l e t e i nf or mat i on, we al s o i nt er pr et i nf or ma t i ont ha t i s, we us e our k no wl e d g e
of t he l a ngua ge and t he wor l d t o under s t and pr obl e m i nf ormat i on. I ma g i ne t he
f ol l owi ng s c e ne : A r oom i n whi c h we f i nd a f at her, a mot her , a son, and a baby . T h e
f at her says, " Pe dr o , Juani t a i s cr yi ng. Pl e a s e c ha ng e he r . " We i nf er t hat t he f ather
i s t al ki ng t o t he boy , b e c a us e we k no w Pe dr o i s a mal e na me and b e c a us e t he
c o mme nt i sn' t an appr opr i at e one t o addr es s t o a baby . We i nf er f rom our knowl -
e d g e of pe o pl e ' s be ha v i or at var i ous ages t hat i t i s t he b a b y wh o i s c r y i ng and i n
ne e d of a c ha ng e , not t he mot her . Fur t her , we i nf er t hat t he b a b y i s f e mal e and
na me d Juani t a, a nd t hat t he f ami l y i s pr oba bl y Spani s h or Me x i c a n. Fi nal l y, our
k n o wl e d g e of f ami l y l i f e s ugges t s t hat wh e n t he f at her says, " Pl e a s e c ha ng e her , "
he doe s not me a n, " T u r n he r i n for a n e w mo d e l . "
E v e n a s i mpl e si t uat i on l i ke t hi s one r equi r es us t o ma k e a numbe r of
k no wl e d g e - b a s e d i nf er enc es i n or der t o under s t and it. We ma k e t he s e i nf er enc es
s o nat ur al l y and aut omat i c al l y t hat of t en we b e l i e v e t hat our c onc l us i ons we r e
act ual l y s pe l l e d out i n t he pr obl e m and t hat t he y we r e not i nf er enc es at al l . For
e x a mpl e , i f we we r e t o ask s ome one , " Ho w do y ou k no w t he boy ' s na me was
P e d r o ? " t he r e s pons e mi g ht we l l be , " I t sai d s o i n t he p r o b l e m. " I t di dn' t . Tha t was
an i nf e r e nc e ba s e d on t he pr obl e m sol ver' s k no wl e d g e .
A t i me wh e n we b e c o me ac ut el y a wa r e t hat we n e e d k n o wl e d g e t o i nt er pr et
pr obl e ms i s wh e n we don' t ha v e t hat k no wl e dg e . Wh e n y o u r ead t hr ough t he
Ent ha l py Pr o bl e m i n t he i nt r oduct i on, y o u ma y ha v e f ound your s el f as ki ng ques -
t i ons s uc h as, " Wha t i s i nt er nal e n e r g y ? " " What ' s a B T U ? " " An d wha t i n t he wor l d
i s e nt ha l py ? " Wi t hout k n o wl e d g e of c onc ept s and r el at i ons i n t he r mody na mi c s t o
bui l d on, we can' t r e pr e s e nt t he pr obl e m. We don' t under s t and t he i ni t i al state or
t he goal , and we ha v e no i de a wha t t he operat ors mi g ht be .
ANALOGI ES AND SCHEMAS
Ve r y of t en, wh e n we e nc ount e r a pr obl e m, we r e c og ni z e t hat we ha v e s een a
si mi l ar pr obl e m bef or e. Fo r e xampl e , s uppos e t hat whi l e y ou are dr i vi ng, your car
be g i ns t o l os e powe r . I t wi l l onl y ma ke 30 mi l es pe r hour on l e v e l r oad and sl ows
t o a cr awl up hi l l s . Al s o i t has a t er r i bl e t e nde nc y t o stal l wh e n t he traffic l i ght turns
gr e e n. T h e fi rst t i me t hi s ha ppe ns , y ou ma y t hi nk t hat y our car i s about t o di e a
ghas t l y deat h. I f y o u ha v e b e e n t hr ough i t bef or e, t hough, y ou ma y r e c ogni z e t he
s y mpt oms of a f ami l i ar pr obl e m. Your car ( you hope ) j us t ne e ds a t une up. Wi t h l uck,
n e w spark pl ugs and poi nt s wi l l ma k e i t heal t hy and ha ppy agai n.
For anot her e x a mpl e , c ons i der t he f ol l owi ng pr obl e m. T w o anc i ent Egy pt i ans ,
Ah me d and Ge o r g e , we r e me a s ur i ng a f i el d on t he banks of t he Ni l e . St art i ng from
one cor ner of t he f i el d, Ah me d wa l k e d 20 cubi t s sout h and Ge o r g e wa l k e d 60 cubi t s
west . Ho w far apart we r e t hey at t hi s poi nt ?
No w, I ' m r eas onabl y sure t hat y o u ha v e ne v e r he ar d t hi s pr o b l e m bef or e, s i nce
I j ust ma de i t up. Ne v e r t he l e s s , y ou l i ke l y r e c og ni z e t hat t hi s i s a " t r i a ng l e " pr ob-
l em, and b e c a us e y ou ha v e a t r i angl e pr obl e m schema, y ou k n o w t hat y ou s houl d
us e t he Pyt hagor ean t heor em t o s ol ve it.
Th e r e are ma ny f ami l i ar pr obl e m s c hemas . For e x a mpl e , t her e are s c he mas for
di st ance- rat e- t i me pr obl e ms , t r i angl e pr obl e ms , i nt er es t pr obl e ms , r i ver - cur r ent
pr obl e ms , r i ver - cr ossi ng pr obl e ms , mi xt ur e pr obl e ms , age pr obl e ms , and ma ny
mor e. A pr obl e m s c he ma i s a pac kage of i nf or mat i on a bout t he pr oper t i es of a
part i cul ar pr obl e m t ype. A s c he ma for t r i angl e pr obl e ms , for e x a mpl e , may i nc l ude
i nf ormat i on that:
1. T h e i ni ti al state wi l l s peci f y l engt hs of s ome of t he s i des of a r i ght - angl e t r i angl e;
2. T h e goal wi l l be t o f i nd t he l engt h of anot her s i de; and
3. T h e operat or wi l l i nv ol v e appl i cat i on of t he Py t hagor e an t he or e m.
The r e i s a var i et y of " opt i mi s t " st ory whi c h ( i nadver t ent l y) i l l ust rat es t he i m-
por t ance of our k n o wl e d g e of pr obl e m s c hemas i n r e pr e s e nt i ng pr obl e ms .
Optimist Story 1
An optimist put a new kind of furnace in his house and found that it cut his
heating bills in half. Del i ght ed, he had another one installed, expecti ng that he
woul d cut his fuel bill to zero.
i Optimist Story 2
An optimist really likes his doctor except that every time he visits his office, he
has to wait an hour to see him. Then a brilliant idea strikes him. He deci des that if
he takes t wo friends wi th him to hel p, he should only have to wai t for 20 minutes.
No w, t he pe c ul i ar t hi ng about t he opt i mi s t s ' t hi nki ng i s not t hat t he y are f ai l i ng
t o us e k no wl e dg e , but rat her t hat t he y are us i ng t he k n o wl e d g e i nappr opr i at el y.
The r e are ma ny si t uat i ons i n wh i c h i t i s t r ue t hat i f one of s ome t hi ng doe s hal f a j ob,
t hen t wo of t he m wi l l do t he who l e j ob. I f one can of pai nt c over s hal f of t he hous e ,
t hen t wo cans ought t o c ov e r t he who l e hous e . T h e opt i mi st ' s error i s t hat he has
appl i ed thi s s c he ma t o he at i ng hous e s , whe r e i t i s not appr opr i at e.
T h e opt i mi st i n t he s e c ond st ory us es a s c he ma whi c h i s per f ec t l y appr opr i at e
i n " wo r k " pr obl e ms . I f one per s on can do a j ob i n an hour , t hr ee p e o p l e ought t o
be abl e t o do t he j ob i n 20 mi nut es . Ho we v e r , t her e are ma ny act i vi t i es t hat can' t
be has t ened by ha v i ng s ever al pe o pl e c o mbi ne t hei r effort. T h e s e i nc l ude wai t i ng,
f al l i ng off cl i f f s, and ma t u r i n g I f one b o y r eac hes pube r t y at 1 2, c oul d 1 2 boy s
reach pube r t y at o ne ?
Pr obl e m s c he ma s are an i mpor t ant part of t he k n o wl e d g e we us e t o s ol ve
pr obl ems . Ho we v e r , as t he opt i mi s t st ori es s how, we al so n e e d t o k no w wh e n t he
schemas are appr opr i at e and wh e n t he y are not.
INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES IN PROBLEM REPRESENTATION
Ev e n wh e n t wo p e o p l e r e pr e s e nt t he s ame pr obl e m, t he y ma y we l l not r epr e-
sent i t i n t he s ame way . A per s on wh o i s v e r y good at f i l t er i ng out i r r el evant det ai l
may pr oduc e a v e r y s par e r epr es ent at i on, as i n Fi g ur e 2.
Anot her per s on wh o i s not good at f i l t er i ng out i r r el evant det ai l ma y pr oduc e
a c ompl e x and ornat e r epr es ent at i on, as i n Fi g ur e 3.
The r e are mor e di f f er ences b e t we e n r epr es ent at i ons , t hough, t han j ust t he
amount of det ai l t he y cont ai n. On e per s on ma y r e pr e s e nt a pr obl e m i n vi sual
I ni t i al
State
Figure 2. A Spare Representati on
Figure 3. An Or nat e Representati on of t he Same Probl em
i mager y, anot her i n s e nt e nc e s , and a t hi rd i n audi t or y i rnages. I f t wo pe o pl e repre-
s ent a pr o bl e m i n vi s ual i ma ge s , t he y ma y we l l not us e t he s ame i mages . For
e x a mpl e , i n i ma g i ni ng t he mons t er s i n t he Mons t e r Pr o bl e m, s o me s aw t he m ar-
r ange d hor i zont al l y, s o me ver t i cal l y, and s ome i n a ci r cl e.
Ou r ski l l i n pr o b l e m s ol v i ng de pe nds i n a v e r y i mpor t ant wa y on our store of
pr o bl e m s c hemas . Ea c h pr obl e m s c he ma we k no w gi v e s us a v e r y val uabl e advan-
t age i n s ol v i ng a wh o l e cl ass of p r o b l e ms a n advant age wh i c h ma y consi st i n
k no wi ng wha t t o pa y at t ent i on t o, or h o w t o r e pr e s e nt t he pr o bl e m, or ho w t o s ear ch
for a sol ut i on, or al l t hr ee. Cl e a r l y t he mor e s c he mas we know, t he bet t er pr e par e d
we ar e as pr o bl e m sol ver s.
Whi l e our pr obl e m ski l l de pe nds on h o w ma ny s c he ma s we ha v e , i t al so de-
pe nds on t he nat ur e of t hos e s c he mas . Mc De r mo t t and Lar ki n ( 1978) have s hown
t hat nov i c e s i n phy s i c s are mor e l i kel y t o ha v e s c he mas t hat are t i ed t o concr et e
as pect s of t he pr o bl e m si t uat i on, e. g. , " s pr i ng p r o b l e m" s c he ma s and " bal anc e
p r o b l e m" s c he ma s , whe r e a s exper t s are mor e l i kel y t o have s c he ma s t i ed t o abst ract
phy s i c s pr i nc i pl e s , e. g. , " wo r k p r o b l e m" s c hemas and " mo me n t of i ner t i a"
s c he mas .
I n t he s ame wa y , i ne x pe r i e nc e d mat h st udent s are l i ke l y t o us e separat e
s c he ma s for t he f ol l owi ng pr obl e ms :
Mr. Russo takes 3 min. less than Mr. Ll oyd to pack a case when each works
alone. One day, after Mr. Russo spent 6 min. in packi ng a case, the boss called him
Understanding Probl ems: The Process of Representation
9
away, and Mr. Ll oyd finished packi ng in 4 more minutes. How many minutes woul d
it take Mr. Russo al one to pack a case?
One veget abl e oil contains 6% saturated fats and a second contains 26% satu-
rated fats. In maki ng a salad dressing how many ounces of the second may be added
to 10 oz. of the first if the percent of saturated fats is not to exceed 16%?
T h e y wi l l us e a " wo r k p r o b l e m" s c he ma for t he fi rst a nd a " mi x t ur e p r o b l e m"
s c hema for t he s ec ond. Mo r e e x pe r i e nc e d mat h s t udent s wo u l d i nc l ude bot h of
t hes e pr obl e ms i n a " l i ne ar e qua t i o ns " s c hema.
Sever al y e ar s ago, I di d s ome st udi es of t he i ma g e r y p e o p l e us e t o s ol v e
el ement ary, mat h pr obl e ms ( Haye s , 1973) . Wh e n I g a v e p e o p l e l ong- di vi s i on pr ob-
l ems t o do i n t hei r he ads , I he a r d my subj ect s do a l ot of t al ki ng t o t he ms e l v e s :
" Two- s e v e nt y - t hr e e i nt o ni ne- f or t y- one, i s t wo, and t wo t i me s t wo- s e ve nt y - t hr e e
i s . . . " " Ah a ! " I sai d t o mys el f . " Audi t or y i mage s are i mpor t ant h e r e . " Wha t r eal l y
surpri sed me t houg h wa s t he be ha v i or of subj ect s r ec r ui t ed f rom t he f acul t y of t he
moder n l a ngua ge s de par t me nt . T h e s e subj ect s we r e p e o p l e wh o we r e bor n i n
Eur ope but had b e e n i n t he Uni t e d St at es for ma ny year s a nd s poke e x c e l l e nt
Engl i s h. T h e s e s ubj ect s di d a l ot of t al ki ng, t oo, but i n Fr e nc h, Spani s h, It al i an,
Pol i sh, or L a t v i a n wh a t e v e r l a ngua ge t he y s poke wh e n t he y or i gi nal l y l e ar ne d
di vi si on. On e pe r s on t ol d me t hat he di d e l e me nt a r y mat he mat i c s i n Cat al an, hi s
f i r s t l anguage , and mor e a dv a nc e d mat hemat i c s i n Spani s h, t he l a ng ua g e he us e d
i n hi s l at er s c hool i ng. Appa r e nt l y ma ny pe o pl e us e audi t or y i ma g e r y i n s ol v i ng
ari t hmet i c pr obl e ms . I n par t i cul ar t he y us e t he s ound of t he l a ng ua g e i n whi c h t he y
ori gi nal l y l e a r ne d ar i t hmet i c.
Vi s ual i ma g e r y wa s al s o f r e que nt l y us e d by p e o p l e s ol v i ng ar i t hmet i c pr ob-
l ems. Whi l e do i ng pr o bl e ms i n t hei r he ads , subj ect s r epor t ed vi s ual i mage s of t he
di gi ts of t he a ns we r and of marks i ndi c at i ng bo r r o wi ng or c anc el l at i on.
I n one e xpe r i me nt , I pr e s e nt e d subj ect s wi t h t he car d s h o wn i n Fi g ur e 4, and
asked t he m t o a dd t he numbe r s i n t hei r he ads . I pur pos e l y di d not l e a v e any s pac e
on t he car d for t he m t o wr i t e t hei r ans we r s , b ut t he n, s i nc e t he y we r e doi ng t he
pr obl em i n t hei r he a ds , t he y di dn' t n e e d any s pac e t o wr i t e t he ans we r . I n fact, 1 2
of t he 1 6 subj ect s c o mpl a i ne d t hat t her e wa s no pl a c e t o wr i t e t he a ns we r . T w o of
589
+ 734
Figure 4. Probl em Used i n Hayes' Mental Mat h Experi ment
Not e that t he s pac e b e l o w t he pr obl e m ( whe r e one wo u l d or di nar i l y wr i t e t he a ns we r
i f t he pr obl e m we r e a wr i t t en one) has b e e n el i mi nat ed.
t he subj ect s pr ov i de d i nt er es t i ng sol ut i ons t o thi s di f f i cul t y. On e sai d that s he
s udde nl y r e al i z e d t hat t her e wa s no r eas on t hat she c oul dn' t wr i t e t he ans we r above
t he pr obl e m. T h e ot her i ma g i ne d a pi e c e of pa pe r s c ot c ht aped t o t he bot t om of t he
card.
My mos t i nt er es t i ng s ubj ec t wa s one wh o had v e r y r es t r i ct ed vi s i on and who,
b e t we e n f ourt h and t wel f t h gr ade, had r e l i e d ent i r el y on Br ai l l e. Wh e n I ques -
t i oned hi m about t he i ma g e r y he us e d i n doi ng ar i t hmet i c, he as ke d i f I wa nt e d t o
k no w about t he " pr i nt " i ma g e s , t he Br ai l l e i mage s , or t he col or s. I n my bes t psy-
chol ogi s t f ashi on, I mai nt ai ne d my upr i ght pos t ur e and sai d, " Te l l me about al l of
t hat . "
I n doi ng ment al ar i t hmet i c, t hi s s ubj ect c oul d i ma g e numbe r s i n t he f ami l i ar
f orm of numer al s as Br ai l l e pat t er ns, or as bar s of col or. Ea c h di gi t had its o wn
uni que col or, as di d t he days of t he we e k ( see Ta b l e 1). He c oul d r e pr e s e nt appoi nt -
me nt t i mes by a l ar ge pat c h of col or for t he day, wi t h a smal l pat c h i n t he c ent er for
t he hour. Thus , T u e s d a y at 3: 00 wa s r e pr e s e nt e d by a l ar ge pat c h of a qua wi t h a
smal l pat ch of pi nk i n t he cent er .
Anot he r subj ect , wh o l e a r ne d her ar i t hmet i c i n Ho n g Ko ng on an abac us ,
c ont i nual l y mo v e d he r f i nger s whi l e s ol vi ng ar i t hmet i c pr obl e ms . As Hat ano,
Mi y a ko, and Bi nks ( 1 977) ha v e s hown, subj ect s wh o us e t he abac us t o do ar i t hmet i c
ha v e di f f i cul t y do i ng ment al ar i t hmet i c i f t he y are pr e v e nt e d f rom us i ng t hei r
f i ngers.
We ha v e o bs e r v e d t hat p e o p l e us e v e r y di v e r s e f or ms of r epr es ent at i on e v e n
wh e n t he y are s ol v i ng s i mpl e pr obl e ms . Numb e r s ma y be r e pr e s e nt e d a s t he s ound
of wor ds i n one' s nat i ve l anguage . T h e y ma y be r e pr e s e nt e d as vi sual i mage s of
pr i nt f orms, Br ai l l e pat t er ns , or col ors. An d t he y ma y be r e pr e s e nt e d as f i nger
mo v e me nt s . Mo s t of our subj ect s us e d t wo or mor e of t he f or ms. Th u s , wh e n t he y
are r e pr e s e nt i ng a pr obl e m, pe o pl e appear t o ha v e c ons i de r a bl e c hoi c e i n h o w t he y
r e pr e s e nt it. Thi s c hoi c e i s i mpor t ant b e c a us e t he f orm of r epr es ent at i on t hat s ub-
j ect s c hoos e c an ma k e a b i g di f f er ence i n t he di f f i cul t y t he y ha v e i n s ol v i ng pr ob-
l e ms , and i n t he s uc c es s t he y ha v e i n ge ne r a l i z i ng t he sol ut i ons.
Tabl e 1. One Subj ect' s Col or Associ ati ons
Nu mb e r s Da y s of t he We e k Mont hs
0 = bl ac k Mo n d a y = dark g r e e n Januar y = gr e e ni s h whi t e
1 = whi t e Tu e s d a y = gr e e ni s h whi t e Fe br ua r y = r edi s h y e l l o w
2 = y e l l o w ( wi t h We d n e s d a y = r ed or ange Ma r c h = dark br o wni s h r ed
s ome or ange) Thur s da y = l i ght r ed Apr i l = c e l e r y g r e e n
3 = pi nk or ange Ma y = l i ght r ed or ange
4 = bl ue Fr i da y = y e l l o w ( l i ke Thur s da y )
5 = y e l l o w Sat ur day = b r o wn June = gr e e n ( l i ght er t han
( pal er t han 2) Sunda y = gr e e ni s h whi t e , Mo nda y )
6 = dark g r e e n but whi t e r t han Tu e s d a y Jul y = g r e e ne r t han Apr i l
7 = or ange pi nk Aug us t = r ed or ange
8 = dark b r o wn ( l i ght er t han We dne s da y )
9 = y e l l o w ( pal er S e p t e mb e r = or ange wi t h
t han 5) s ome r ed
Oc t o be r = r el at i vel y pur e
whi t e
No v e mb e r = dark gr e e n, but
not as dark as Mo nd a y
De c e mb e r = dar ker t han
S e pt e mb e r
Understanding Problems: The Process of Representation 11
EXTERNAL REPRESENTATIONS
I n ma ny cas es , an ext er nal r epr es ent at i on i s v e r y hel pf ul for s ol v i ng pr obl e ms .
Dr a wi ng a s ket ch, j ot t i ng d o wn l i st s, wr i t i ng out equat i ons , and ma k i ng di agr ams
can he l p us t o r e me mb e r i nf ormat i on and t o not i c e n e w r el at i ons i n t he pr obl e m.
Cons i de r t he f ol l owi ng rate pr obl e m:
A car can average 20 mph up to Pike' s Peak and 60 mph back down the same
road. What is the average speed for the whole trip?
Some pe opl e wi l l f i nd t hi s pr o bl e m eas y e no ug h t o s ol ve i n t hei r he ads . Ot her s
f eel muc h mor e comf or t abl e wi t h pe nc i l and p a p e r wr i t i n g d o wn rel at i ons as t he y
occur t o t hem and not t r yi ng t o j ug g l e al l t he facts i n t hei r he ads at onc e . T h e scrat ch
s heet of such a per s on mi g ht l ook l i ke t hi s:
total di s t anc e
( 1; aver age rate =
total t i me
(2) di st ance up = di s t anc e d o wn = X
(3) total di s t ance = 2X
. . . . di s t anc e
(4) t i me =
rat e
20 mp h 60 mph
X X
(6) total t i me = +
20 60
M s 2X 2X 20 60 2X
(7) aver age rat e = = =
X^ X_ 60X + 20X 80X
20 60 20 60
2 0 - 6 0 - 2 2400
(o) = = = 30 mph
80 80
Cl ear l y t hi s ext er nal r epr es ent at i on i s an e nor mous ai d t o me mor y . T h e pr ob-
l em sol ver can c o mput e total t i me i n l i nes 4 t hr ough 6 wi t hout ha v i ng t o r e me mb e r
total di st ance. I n c o mput i ng av e r age rate i n l i nes 7 and 8, he can a ppl y e a c h
al gebrai c st ep wi t hout ha v i ng t o r e me mb e r t he ef f ect s of pr e v i ous st eps. Wo r k i ng
wi t hout s uch an ext er nal r epr es ent at i on wo u l d be v e r y di f f i cul t for mos t pe opl e .
Ot her ki nds of ext er nal r epr es ent at i on can al so be v e r y us ef ul me mo r y ai ds. For
exampl e, mat ri x r epr es ent at i on i s v e r y us ef ul i n s ol v i ng i dent i f i cat i on pr obl e ms
such as thi s one:
Dickens, Einstein, Freud, and Kant are professors of Engl i sh, Physics, Psy-
chology, and Philosophy (though not necessarily respectively).
1. Dickens and Freud were in the audience when the psychologist delivered
his first lecture.
2. Both Einstein and the philosopher were friends of the physicist.
3. The philosopher has attended lectures by both Kant and Dickens.
4. Dickens has never heard of Freud.
Match the professors to their fields.
Our task i s t o mat c h t he prof essors t o t hei r f i el ds . To do t hi s, we const r uct a
matrix as s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 5. No w, r e adi ng s e nt e nc e 1 , we c o nc l ude t hat t he psy-
After first step:
Eng l i s h Phys i c s Ps y c ho l o g y Phi l os ophy
Di c k e ns
Ei ns t e i n
F r e u d
Kant
X
X
After second step:
Di c k e ns
X X
Ei ns t e i n
X X
Fr e u d
X
Kant
X
After third step:
Di c k e ns
X X
Ei ns t e i n
X
X
Fr e u d
X X X o
Kant
X
Figure 6. Steps for Sol vi ng t he Di ckens, Einstein, Freud, and Kant Probl em
Eng l i s h Phy s i c s Ps y c ho l o g y Phi l os ophy
Di c k e ns
Ei ns t e i n
Fr e ud
Kant
Figure 5. A Matri x for t he Di ckens, Einstein, Freud, and Kant Probl em
c hol ogi s t i s ne i t he r Di c k e n s nor Fr e ud, s o we put X' s ( i ndi cat i ng c ombi nat i ons
r ul e d out) i n t wo bl oc ks as s ho wn i n t he t op mat ri x of Fi g ur e 6. I n t he s e c o nd l i ne,
we l ear n t hat Ei ns t e i n i s nei t her t he phi l os ophe r nor t he phys i c i s t , and i n t he t hi r d
l i ne, t hat t he phi l os ophe r i s ne i t he r Kant nor Di c k e ns , s o we can fi l l i n f our mor e
X' s, as s hown i n t he mi d d l e mat ri x of Fi g ur e 6. No w t hat l e a v e s onl y Fr e u d wh o
coul d be t he phi l os opher , s o we put an 0 i n t he bl o c k c or r e s pondi ng t o F r e u d and
phi l os ophy, and X out t he ot her al t er nat i ve f i el ds for F r e u d ( s ee r e ma i ni ng mat ri x,
Fi gur e 6). Pr oc e e di ng i n t hi s wa y ( t hough y ou ma y ha v e s o me di f f i cul t y wi t h t he
last f e w st eps) , y ou can i dent i f y t he f i el ds of al l of t he pr of essor s.
T h e mat ri x, l i ke t he not at i ons i n t he pr e v i ous pr obl e m, pr ov i de s us wi t h a great
deal of he l p i n r e me mb e r i ng t he resul t s we ha v e obt ai ne d i n pr e v i ous st eps. Wi t h-
out s uc h ai ds, s ome pr obl e ms wo u l d be di f f i cul t or i mpos s i bl e t o s ol ve.
Whi l e ext ernal r epr es ent at i ons are c l ear l y v e r y us ef ul as me mo r y ai ds , t he y c an
he l p i n ot her way s as we l l . As Pa i g e and Si mon ( 1966) ha v e s ho wn, s ome rel at i ons
i n pr obl ems are eas i er t o di s c ov e r wh e n we us e a di agr am t han wh e n we don' t .
Thi nk about t he f ol l owi ng pr o bl e m for a mo me n t and t he n e x a mi ne Fi g ur e 7.
A car radiator contains exactly one liter of a 90% alcohol-water mixture. What
quantity of water will change the liter to an 80% alcohol mixture?
Figure 7. Representati on of t he Radiator Probl em (After Pai ge and Si mon)
Four r el at i ons wh i c h are i mpor t ant for s ol v i ng t he pr o bl e m c an be r ead di r ec t l y
from t he di agr am. T h e s e are:
A L C O H O L B E F O R E = A L C O H O L A F T E R
WA T E R A F T E R = WA T E R B E F O R E + WA T E R A D D E D
T O T A L V O L U M E B E F O R E = A L C O H O L B E F O R E + WA T E R B E F O R E
T O T A L V O L U M E A F T E R = A L C O H O L A F T E R + WA T E R A F T E R
14
I f any of t hes e r el at i ons hadn' t oc c ur r ed t o y ou after r e a di ng t he pr obl e m text, t he
di agr am c oul d ha v e g i v e n y ou a v e r y usef ul hi nt .
No w, s ol ve t hi s pr o bl e m bef or e you pr oc e e d.
A board was sawed into two pieces. One piece was two-thirds as long as the whole
board and was exceeded in length by the second pi ece by 4 ft. How long was the
board before it was cut?
Di d y ou not i c e t he cont r adi ct or y nat ur e of t he p r o b l e m? Pa i g e and Si mon
f ound t hat p e o p l e wh o dr a w a di agr am t o r e pr e s e nt t hi s p r o b l e m c an us e t he
di agr am t o di s c ov e r its cont r adi ct or y nat ure. Pe o p l e wh o do not dr a w a di agr am are
l i kel y t o mi s s t he cont r adi ct i on and s ome ma y be qui t e ha ppy t o a c c e pt an a ns we r
of - 1 2 f eet for t he l e ngt h of t he boar d!
Ext er nal r epr es ent at i ons , t hen, can be e nor mous l y usef ul . You s houl d always
cons i der us i ng t he m wh e n y ou are s ol vi ng di f f i cul t pr obl e ms .
CHANGE AND GROWTH I N REPRESENTATIONS
An i mpor t ant f act about a r epr es ent at i on i s t hat i t can c ha ng e or d e v e l o p as we
wor k on t he pr obl e m. Of t e n e no ug h, wh e n we start t o s ol ve a pr obl e m, t her e are
s ome i mpor t ant part s t hat we are v a g ue about or whi c h ha v e e s c a pe d us ent i r el y.
We ma y not f ul l y unde r s t and t he who l e pr obl e m unt i l we ha v e wo r k e d on i t for
s ome t i me. Wh e n pe o pl e start t o s ol ve t he Mons t e r Pr o bl e m, t he y us ual l y ha v e a
pr et t y c l ear unde r s t a ndi ng of t he i ni ti al state, t he goal , and t he operat or. Of t en
t hough, t he y don' t r eal l y unde r s t and t he rest ri ct i ons. As t he y t ry t o ma k e a mo v e ,
we ma y he a r t he m mut t er , " I f t wo gl obe s are hol di ng t he s a me mons t er . . . No.
That ' s not i t . " T h e y ma y not a c hi e v e ful l unde r s t a ndi ng unt i l t he y ha v e b e e n
c or r ec t ed s ever al t i mes for ma k i ng i l l egal mov e s .
I ma g i ne t hat y o u are f ac e d wi t h t he f ol l owi ng mat c hs t i c k pr o bl e m:
Gi ven 16 matches arranged in five squares like this
move just three sticks to form four squares.
Wh e n y ou fi rst r e ad t he pr obl e m, i t i s r eas onabl e t o s us pe c t t hat your r epr es en-
t at i on of t he goal wi l l be v e r y st rai ght f orward: y o u are l ooki ng for any ar r ange me nt
of f our s quar es , s uc h as t he s e :
1 1 1, I 1 1, etc.
I f your first s ever al s ol ut i on at t empt s f ai l , t hough, y o u ma y r e e x a mi ne t he pr obl e m
st at ement t o s e e i f t her e i s anyt hi ng y o u ove r l ooke d. Yo u ma y not i c e t hat 1 6
mat c hes wi l l ma k e exac t l y f our s quar es onl y i f e a c h mat c h i s u s e d i n one and onl y
one squar e. An y ar r ange me nt i n wh i c h a mat c h s er ves as t he s i de of t wo di f f erent
Understanding Problems: The Process of Representation 75
squares won' t wor k. Thi s obs er vat i on al l ows y ou t o c ha ng e your r epr es ent at i on of
t he goal . No w you are s e ar c hi ng for ar r angement s l i ke t hi s:
or t hi s:
Thi s ne w, mor e pr e c i s e r epr es ent at i on of t he goal can he l p y ou t o avoi d f al se
l eads i n your s ear ch for a sol ut i on.
I obs e r v e d anot her e x a mpl e of c ha ng e i n r epr es ent at i on f i rst hand wh e n a
f ri end c ha l l e ng e d me t o s ol ve t he Fo ur Kni ght s Pr obl e m. Thi s pr o bl e m i nv ol v e s a
3 x 3 ches s boar d and f our c hes s p i e c e s t wo whi t e kni ght s and t wo bl ac k
kni ght s, ar r anged as s h o wn i n Fi g ur e 8. T h e goal i s t o i nt e r c hange t he posi t i ons of
the whi t e and bl a c k kni ght s us i ng onl y l egal kni ght mo v e s . Fo r t hos e wh o ar en' t
fami l i ar wi t h c he s s , Fi g u r e 9 s hows t he l egal kni ght mo v e s . T h e kni ght can mo v e
one space st rai ght a he a d and one s pac e di agonal l y f or war d.
Figure 8. Ori gi nal Position in t he Four Knights Probl em
Figure 9. Eight Possible Knight Moves
Unf or t unat el y, I had ne v e r s e e n t he Four Kni ght s Pr o bl e m bef or e. Ho we v e r ,
on gener al pr i nc i pl e s , I set up s ome gui de l i ne s i n s e ar c hi ng for a sol ut i on. Fi rst , I
d e c i d e d t o wo r k wi t h an ext er nal r epr es ent at i on of t he pr o bl e m t o he l p me k e e p my
pl ac e . I us e d a 3 x 3 mat ri x l i ke t hat s hown i n Fi g ur e 8, on wh i c h I pe nc i l l e d t he
cur r ent pos i t i on of e a c h pi e c e and e r as e d t he pr e vi ous pos i t i on. Se c o nd, I k n e w t hat
i f I mo v e d pi e c e s at r andom, I wo u l d ha v e t r oubl e r e me mb e r i ng whi c h pat hs I had
al r eady e x pl or e d and wh i c h I had y e t t o expl or e. Fur t her , I k n e w t hat e v e n wh e n
I r e a c he d t he goal , I mi ght f orget t he pat h t hat had l e d t her e. * For t hes e r eas ons ,
I ma de mo v e s wh i c h wo u l d be e as y t o r e me mbe r : I mo v e d al l f our pi e c e s one st ep
c l oc kwi s e , g i v i ng me t he ar r ange me nt s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 10.
Thi s r es ul t s ug g e s t e d abs ol ut e l y not hi ng t o me , s o I mo v e d al l pi e c e s one mor e
st ep c l o c k wi s e t o y i e l d t he f ormat i on s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 1 1 .
At t hi s poi nt , I r e c o g ni z e d t hat I had rot at ed t he or i gi nal pat t er n by 90 and t hat
i f I j us t r e pe a t e d wha t I had do ne up unt i l now, t he pr o bl e m wo u l d be s ol ve d!
Ear l i er I ha d t hought smal l . I n my r epr es ent at i on, t her e wa s j us t one o pe r a t o r t he
s i ngl e kni ght ' s mo v e . No w, b e c a us e of t he r es ul t I o bs e r v e d i n t he ext er nal r epr e-
sent at i on, I a d d e d a l ar ger oper at or t o my r e p r e s e nt a t i o na ma c r o- ope r a t or
cons i s t i ng of e i g ht kni ght s ' mov e s . Us i ng t he macr o- oper at or , I c oul d s ol ve t he
pr obl e m i n j us t t wo mo v e s rat her t han 16.
* (Question: Coul d I have used a better external representation?)
Figure 1 1 . Four Knights Probl em Rotated Two Steps Cl ockwi se From Ori gi nal Position
Ve r y of t en, t hen, we c ha ng e our r epr es ent at i on of a pr obl e m whi l e we are
s ol vi ng it. I n ma ny c as es , t hes e c hange s appear t o be i mpr ov e me nt s whi c h ma ke t he
pr obl e m eas i er t o s ol ve. I f y ou are ha v i ng di f f i cul t y i n s ol v i ng a pr obl e m, i t make s
s ens e t o c ons i der c ha ng i ng your pr obl e m r epr es ent at i on, A usef ul wa y t o pr oc e e d,
as Pol y a (1945) has s ugge s t e d, i s t o r e e xami ne t he pr o bl e m s t at ement ver y caref ul l y.
Per haps we can ma k e an i nf er enc e whi c h wi l l he l p us r e pr e s e nt t he goal mor e
ac c ur at el y as i n t he Mat c hs t i c k Pr obl e m. Or per haps we c an f orm a macro- operat or
as i n t he Four Kni ght s Pr obl e m. Car ef ul exami nat i on of e a c h of t he f our pr obl e m
pa r t s i ni t i a l state, goal , oper at or s, and r e s t r i c t i ons c a n s ug g e s t wa y s t o i mpr ove
our r epr es ent at i on.
REPRESENTATIONS MAKE A DIFFERENCE
A pr obl e m ma y be di f f i cul t or i mpos s i bl e for us t o s ol v e i n one r epr es ent at i on,
but mu c h eas i er i n anot her . For e xampl e , c ons i der t he Ni ne Dot s Pr obl e m.
The Nine Dots Problem
Without raising your pencil from the paper, draw four straight lines so that each
of the dots above is touched by at least one of the lines.
I f y o u don' t al r eady k no w t he pr obl e m, try t o s ol ve i t be f or e pr oc e e di ng .
S o me p e o p l e ha v e t r oubl e be c a us e t he y ha v e a d d e d a rest ri ct i on t o t hei r r epr e-
sent at i on wh i c h ma ke s t he pr obl e m uns ol vabl e . * T h e rest ri ct i on i s t hat t he l i nes
s houl d ne v e r e x t e nd b e y o n d t he s quar e de f i ne d by t he ni ne dot s. Ty pi c a l sol ut i on
at t empt s for subj ect s a ddi ng t hi s rest ri ct i on are s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 1 2.
T h e first r epr es ent at i on g a v e t r oubl e be c a us e i t a dde d an ext ra rest ri ct i on t o t he
pr obl e m. An y r epr es ent at i on t hat adds or de l e t e s si gni f i cant t hi ngs f rom t he i ni t i al
state, f rom t he goal , f rom t he operat ors, or f rom t he rest ri ct i ons i s v e r y l i ke l y t o g i v e
us ser i ous t r oubl e. We c an avoi d thi s t r oubl e t o s ome ext ent by c he c k i ng our
r epr es ent at i on v e r y car ef ul l y agai ns t t he pr obl e m s t at ement be f or e we l aunc h i nt o
any ma s s i v e s ol ut i on at t empt .
E v e n wh e n our r epr es ent at i on of a pr obl e m i s es s ent i al l y cor r ect , t hough, t her e
are ot her wa y s t o f orm a cor r ect r epr es ent at i on. S o me of t he m are eas i er t o us e t han
ot hers. Co ns i d e r t he f ol l owi ng r i ver - cur r ent pr obl e m.
A River-Current Problem
You are standing by the side of a river which is flowing past you at the rate of
5 mph. You spot a raft 1 mi. upstream on which there are two boys helplessly adrift.
Then you spot the boys' parents 1 mi. downstream paddling upstream to save them.
You know that in still water the parents can paddle at the rate of 4 mph. How long
will it be before the parents reach the boys?
* See Wickelgren (1974) for an alternative interpretation.
One ve r y nat ural wa y t o r epr es ent t he pr obl e m i s t o t ake t he poi nt of v i e w of
the obser ver s t andi ng by t he s i de of t he ri ver. ( The pr o bl e m r eal l y set s y ou up t o
do this.) We can c omput e t he s p e e d of t he boy s wi t h r e s pe c t t o t he obs e r ve r ( 5 mph
downst ream) and t he s p e e d of t he par ent s wi t h r e s pe c t t o t he obs e r v e r ( 5 mph - 4
mph =1 mph downs t r eam) . T h e di f f er ence i n s pe e d b e t we e n t he boy s and t hei r
parents i s f our mi l es pe r hour. Thus , i t s houl d t ake hal f an hour t o c ov e r t he
t wo- mi l e di st ance.
An al t ernat e and s i mpl e r wa y t o r epr es ent t he pr obl e m i s t o t ake t he poi nt of
v i e w of t he boys on t he raft. I f we t ake t hi s poi nt of v i e w, we can i gnor e t he rate at
whi c h t he boys and t hei r par ent s are mo v i ng wi t h r e s pe c t t o t he obs er ver . ( The
obser ver real l y i s i r r el evant i n t hi s pr obl em. ) I n addi t i on, we can i gnor e t he rate of
t he current , si nce i t i s af f ect i ng t he boy s a nd t hei r par ent s e qua l l y . (If t hi s s e e ms
strange t o you, r e me mb e r that we r out i nel y i gnor e mot i ons t hat af f ect bot h part i es
equal l y such as t he rot at i on of t he eart h on its axi s a nd t he mot i on of t he eart h
around t he sun. ) Al l t hat i s l ef t i s t he rate at whi c h t he par ent s are p a d d l i n g f o u r
mi l es per hour. Th u s , t he n e w r epr es ent at i on al l ows us t o f i nd t he rate of appr oac h
i n one st ep, whi l e t he ol d r epr es ent at i on r e qui r e d t hr ee.
WORKING BACKWARDS
Whe n y ou ha v e t r oubl e s ol vi ng a pr obl e m head- on, i t i s of t en usef ul t o t ry t o
work bac kwar ds . Wo r k i ng ba c kwa r ds i nv ol v e s a s i mpl e c ha ng e i n r epr es ent a-
t i o no r poi nt of v i e w i n whi c h your n e w st art i ng pl a c e i s t he ori gi nal goal , and
vi ce versa. Wo r k i ng ba c kwa r ds c an be hel pf ul b e c a us e pr obl e ms are of t en eas i er t o
sol ve i n one di r ec t i on t han anot her . To s e e wh y t hi s i s so, c ons i de r Fi g ur e 1 4.
Suppos e your pr o b l e m i s t o ge t f rom X t o Y. St art i ng f r om X, t her e are f i ve
equal l y pr omi s i ng pat hs t o expl or e i n s e ar c hi ng for t he sol ut i on. St art i ng f rom Y,
however , t her e i s j us t one pat h t o X. I n t hi s cas e, t hen, s ol v i ng ba c kwa r ds i s eas i er
than s ol vi ng f or war ds .
He r e i s a pr o b l e m wh i c h i l l ust rat es t he us ef ul nes s of wo r k i ng ba c k wa r ds : Yo u
are gi ven f our bl a c k cards and f our r ed cards f rom an or di nar y de c k. You ha v e t o
arrange t he m i n a st ack, f ace d o wn, so t hat y o u can deal t he m out as f ol l ows :
1. You pl a c e t he t op car d on t he t abl e, f ace up. I t i s bl ack.
2. You pl a c e t he next car d ( now on t he t op of t he de c k) on t he bot t om of t he
deck.
3. You pl a c e t he next car d on t he t abl e, f ace up. I t i s r ed.
4. You pl a c e t he next car d on t he bot t om of t he de c k.
You pr oc e e d i n t hi s wa y p u t t i n g al t ernat e cards on t he t a b l e u n t i l al l t he cards
are deal t out. Wh e n y o u ha v e f i ni s hed, t he pat t ern of cards on t he t abl e s houl d l ook
l i ke Fi gur e 1 5.
Thi s i s a mode r a t e l y di f f i cul t pr obl e m i f y o u try t o s ol ve i t f or war ds. Th e r e are
lots of pos s i bl e ar r ange me nt s of t he cards (70 of t hem) , and onl y one of t he arrange-
ments i s ri ght ! I f y o u wo r k ba c kwa r ds f rom t he fi nal resul t , ho we v e r , t her e i s j us t
one pat h t o t he cor r ect ar r angement . To wor k ba c kwa r ds , y o u ha v e t o r e ve r s e t he
ori gi nal or der of oper at i ons . Put t he t op car d on t he t abl e, put t he t op car d on t he
bot t om, etc. , b e c o me s : Put a card f rom t he t abl e on t op, put t he bot t om car d on t op,
etc. Wh e n y o u a ppl y t hi s s e q ue nc e of oper at i ons t o t he cards l ai d out on t he t abl e
as s hown a bov e , y o u e nd up wi t h a st ack of cards ar r anged i n t he cor r ect order.
Wor ki ng ba c kwa r ds i s us ef ul i n ma ny pract i cal si t uat i ons. Fo r e x a mpl e , sup-
pose that y ou we r e wr i t i ng a pos i t i on pa pe r t o pe r s ua de t he ma na g e me nt of your
20
Figure 1 2 . Typi cal Sol uti on Attempts for the Ni ne Dot s Probl em
c o mpa ny t o a c c e pt y our pe t i dea. Yo u mi ght wor k f or war ds by wr i t i ng a pape r i n
whi c h y o u pr e s e nt al l t hos e det ai l s and comput at i ons t hat y o u f i nd s o f asci nat i ng
and f i ri ng i t off t o ma na g e me nt . Or y o u mi ght wor k ba c kwa r ds by s ayi ng t o yoursel f ,
" No w hol d on. Wha t I ' m t r yi ng t o do i s t o c onv i nc e ma na g e me nt . I f t he y ' r e g oi ng
t o be c onv i nc e d, wha t has t o ha p p e n? I' l l ha v e t o me e t t hei r obj ect i ons . No w wha t
are t hos e obj ect i ons l i ke l y t o b e ? " By wor ki ng b a c k wa r d s b y st art i ng wi t h y our
g o a l y o u ar e mor e l i ke l y t o wr i t e a c onv i nc i ng paper .
HYPOTHETICAL REASONI NG
Co ns i de r t hi s pr o bl e m:
Truthtellers and Liars
You are visiting a strange country in whi ch there are just two kinds of
peopl etruthtel l ers and liars. Truthtellers always tell the truth and liars always lie.
You hail the first two peopl e you meet and say, "Are you truthtellers or liars?" The
first person mumbles something you can't hear. The second says, " He says he is a
truthteller. He is a truthteller and so am I." Can you trust the directions that these
two may gi ve you?
A good wa y t o s ol v e t hi s pr obl e m i s t o pr opos e hy pot he s e s . For e x a mpl e , y o u
mi ght say, " S u p p o s e t he first g uy was a l i ar. Wha t wo u l d he ha v e sai d t h e n ? " Thi s
i s a hypot hes i s be c a us e , for t he mome nt , y ou are pur pos e l y a s s umi ng s ome t hi ng
Figure 1 3 . Sol uti on of the Ni ne Dot s Probl em
C W H M
Figure 1 4. A Good Probl em for Worki ng Backwards
that was n' t st at ed i n t he p r o b l e mt h a t i s, t hat t he fi rst ma n wa s a l i ar. No w y o u
wor k out t he c o ns e q ue nc e s of t hi s hypot he s i s . " I f t he fi rst ma n wa s a l i ar, he mus t
have l i ed about hi ms e l f and sai d t hat he was a t r ut ht el l er . " No w y ou try t he al t er-
nat i ve hypot he s i s : " S u p p o s e he wa s a t r ut ht el l er . " T h e c o ns e q u e nc e of t hi s hy-
pot hesi s i s t hat t he fi rst ma n wo u l d ha v e t o t el l t he t rut h a bout hi ms e l f and say t hat
he was a t rut ht el l er. T h e cri t i cal di s c ov e r y t hat y o u can ma k e by t r yi ng t he s e
hypot hes es i s t hat whe t he r t he fi rst ma n wa s a t r ut ht el l er or a l i ar, he mus t ha v e said
that he was a t rut ht el l er. T h e s e c ond ma n, t hen, mus t ha v e b e e n a t r ut ht el l er , and
so was t he first ma n s i nc e t he s e c ond ma n sai d so.
Thi s sol ut i on me t ho d i s c al l e d hypot het i c al r eas oni ng. I t i nv ol v e s a ddi ng t o t he
pr obl e m r epr es ent at i on by ma k i ng hy pot he s e s and t he n wo r k i ng out t he c ons e-
que nc e s of t hes e hy pot he s e s t o l ear n mor e about t he pr obl e m.
Hypot het i c al r e as oni ng i s usef ul i n a v e r y wi d e var i et y of pract i cal si t uat i ons.
For e xampl e , s uppos e t hat a c o mpa ny ma na g e r i s t r yi ng t o de c i de whe t he r t o r ent
or t o b u y n e w of f i ce s pace. She mi g ht c ons i der a var i et y of hy pot he s e s i n ma k i ng
her dec i s i on, e. g. ,
" Suppo s e we us e i t for mor e t han t wo y e a r s t h e n i t wi l l be c he a pe r t o b u y . "
Or
" Suppo s e t her e i s a r ec es s i on and we have t o c ut our staff. T h e n we wo u l d wa nt
t o be abl e t o ge t out fast, s o r ent i ng wo u l d be be t t e r . "
We wi l l di scuss wa y s t o eval uat e t hes e hy pot he s e s i n t he chapt er s on de c i s i on
maki ng.
ILL-DEFINED PROBLEMS
Ma ny of t he pract i cal pr obl e ms we e nc ount e r e v e r y da y ar e i l l - def i ned ones .
That i s, t hey are pr obl e ms t hat we can' t s ol ve unl es s we t ake act i on t o def i ne t he m
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
B B B B B B B B
Figure 1 5 . Final Position in t he Black/Red Card Probl em
bet t er . The r e are t wo sorts of act i ons we ma y ha v e t o t ake: we ma y ha v e t o ma k e
gap- f i l l i ng de c i s i ons and we ma y ha v e t o j u mp i nt o t he pr o bl e m bef or e we can f ul l y
under s t and it. He r e i s an e x a mpl e of a pr obl e m t hat r equi r es gap- f i l l i ng dec i s i ons .
Just as y o u are about t o l e a v e your hous e for Chr i s t mas s hoppi ng, your si st er
r us hes up t o y o u and says, " I have n' t had t i me t o get any t hi ng for Mot her . Wo u l d
y o u mi nd get t i ng s ome t hi ng for h e r O h , j ust any t hi ng n i c e f o r about 20
d o l l a r s p l e e e s e ? " Your si st er has s ol ve d her i l l - def i ned pr o b l e m by maki ng i t
y our i l l - def i ned pr obl e m. To s ol ve t hi s pr obl e m, y ou wi l l ha v e t o ma ke s ome
dec i s i ons . Wo u l d your mot he r pr ef er c l ot hes ? Books ? Re c or ds ? Suppo s e you de c i de
on r ecor ds. Yo u sti l l ha v e ma ny dec i s i ons t o make. I s s he r eal l y t i r ed of Li be r a c e ?
Wi l l he r punk rock phas e l ast ? Wh e n y o u f i nal l y c hoos e a gift, y our dec i s i ons wi l l
ha v e c ont r i but ed a gr eat deal t o t he def i ni t i on of t hi s i l l - def i ned pr obl e m.
I t i s e as y e no ug h t o cr eat e an i l l - def i ned pr obl e m. I f y o u sit d o wn at your l ocal
l unc h c ount er and or der " a mi l k s hake, pl e as e , any f l avor , " y ou wi l l ha v e pr e s e nt e d
t he c ount er pe o pl e wi t h an i l l - def i ned pr obl e m. T h e y ma y r ef use t o ac c e pt it,
s ayi ng, " I ' m sorry, we can' t he l p y o u unl es s y ou c hoos e some f l avor . " Or t he y ma y
ac c e pt t he pr obl e m ent husi ast i cal l y, r e v e l i ng i n t he c r eat i ve f r eedom y ou ha v e
pr ov i de d t he m, and manuf ac t ur e for y o u your fi rst hot past rami mi l k shake.
Si nc e e a c h pr obl e m s ol ver ma y ma ke di f f erent " gap- f i l l i ng" dec i s i ons i n sol v-
i ng me J a l l T r f W a resul t , ar r i ve at a di f f erent sol ut i on.
T h e s e sol ut i ons ma y di f f er c ons i de r abl y i n qual i t y d e p e n d i n g on t he dec i s i ons t he
pr obl e m s ol ver has ma de . Our ski l l i n s ol vi ng i l l - def i ned pr obl e ms , t hen, de pe nds
i n an i mpor t ant wa y on our abi l i t y t o ma ke good gap- f i l l i ng dec i s i ons .
T h e s e c ond act i on we ma y ha v e t o t ake t o de f i ne an i l l - def i ned pr obl e m i s t o
s j u mp i nt o t he pr o bl e m be f or e we f ul l y under s t and it. Ve r y of t en t he real nat ure of
a pr obl e m i s hi d d e n f rom us unt i l we act ual l y t ry t o s ol v e it. For e xampl e , s uppos e
we h a v e t he t ask of wr i t i ng a ma g a z i ne art i cl e for t en- year - ol ds about abort i on. T h e
real nat ur e of t hi s pr o b l e m pr obabl y won' t be appar ent t o us unt i l we b e g i n wr i t i ng.
T h e n a mul t i t ude of di f f i cul t i es wi l l l e ap out at us. Wi l l t he y k no w wha t t he wor d
" f e t us " me a ns ? Ho w can t he ques t i on about wh e n a f et us b e c o me s a huma n be
e x pl a i ne d? Ca n t he y under s t and t he pr obl e ms t hat l e ad a wo ma n t o ha v e an
abor t i on?
Of t en wi t h pr obl e ms s uc h as t hi s one, we can' t f ul l y def i ne t he pr obl e m unt i l
we are near l y f i ni s hed s ol vi ng it.
Re al - wor l d pr obl e ms are of t en i l l - def i ned. For e x a mpl e , ma ny of t he pr obl e ms
t hat ar chi t ect s f ace are i l l - def i ned. T h e archi t ect ' s c l i ent ma y des i r e a bui l di ng wi t h
a cer t ai n a mount of f l oor s pac e at a s pec i f i ed cost but ma y l e a v e mos t of t he ot her
dec i s i ons a bout t he bui l di ng' s d e s i g n i t s f l oor pl an, its appe ar anc e , e t c . u p t o
t he archi t ect . Ho w we l l ar chi t ect s ma k e t hes e gap- f i l l i ng dec i s i ons de t e r mi ne s i n
l ar ge me a s ur e h o w g ood t he y are as archi t ect s. Si mi l ar l y, pr of essi onal pr obl e ms
f aced by wr i t er s , pai nt er s , c omput e r pr ogr ammer s , c ompos e r s , l a wy e r s , etc., are
v e r y of t en i l l - def i ned ones . To s ol ve s uch pr obl e ms s ucces s f ul l y, we mus t be pr e -
par e d t o ma k e gap- f i l l i ng dec i s i ons and t o j u mp i nt o t he pr obl e ms be f or e we under -
st and t hem.
CONCLUSI ON
S o me pr obl e ms are mu c h eas i er t o s ol ve i n one r epr es ent at i on t han anot her. I f
y ou are ha v i ng di f f i cul t y s ol vi ng a pr obl e m, c ons i der c ha ng i ng t he r epr es ent at i on.
Fi r st c he c k t o be sure your r epr es ent at i on i s correct . T h e n c ons i de r c hangi ng y our
poi nt of v i e w: Co ns i de r hypot het i c al r eas oni ng or vi s ual i mager y; c ons i de r wor ki ng
ba c kwa r ds , ma ki ng a gap- f i l l i ng dec i s i on, c ha ng i ng st rai ght l i nes i nt o ci r cl es
anyt hi ng t hat ma y y i e l d a r epr es ent at i on t hat i s eas i er t o wo r k wi t h. Yo u ma y not
f i nd one, but i f y ou are al r eady ha v i ng di f f i cul t y i n s ol v i ng t he pr obl e m, y ou ha v e
r el at i vel y l i t t l e t o l ose.
Summary
1. Int ernal r epr esent at i ons are t he me d i u m of our t hought wh e n we t hi nk about a
pr obl e m.
2. Our r epr esent at i on of a pr o bl e m mus t i nc l ude a r epr es ent at i on of t he goal , and
ma y al so i nc l ude r epr es ent at i ons of an i ni t i al state, oper at or s, and rest ri ct i ons.
3. An i nt ernal r epr es ent at i on i s not a c opy of an ext ernal si t uat i on. Pe o p l e are v e r y
act i ve wh e n t hey f orm r epr es ent at i ons : T h e y add i nf or mat i on, de l e t e i nf orma-
ti on as i rrel evant , and i nt er pr et i nf ormat i on. T h e i nt ernal r epr es ent at i on i s v e r y
di f f erent f rom t he ext er nal pr obl e m si t uat i on.
4. Kno wl e dg e of l a ng ua g e and k n o wl e d g e of t he wor l d are bot h i mpor t ant i n i nt er-
pr et i ng pr obl e m i nf or mat i on. Pr o bl e m s c hemas are an e s pe c i a l l y i mpor t ant part
of our wor l d k n o wl e d g e for i nt er pr et i ng pr o bl e m i nf or mat i on.
5. The r e are l ar ge di f f er enc es i n t he wa y di f f erent p e o p l e r e pr e s e nt t he s ame
i nf o r ma t i o ns o me ma y us e audi t or y i mager y; ot her s, vi s ual i mager y; sti l l
ot hers, s e nt e nc e s , and so on.
6. Ext er nal r epr es ent at i ons can pr ov i de c ons i de r abl e ai d i n pr o b l e m s ol vi ng. I n
di f f i cul t pr obl e ms , we s houl d always c ons i der us i ng ext er nal r epr es ent at i ons .
7. The s e di f f er ences i n r epr es ent at i on can ma ke an i mpor t ant di f f er ence i n t he
di f f i cul t y of t he pr obl e m. Wh e n pr obl e m sol ver s e nc ount e r di f f i cul t y, t he y
s houl d c ons i der s ear c hi ng for a n e w pr obl e m r epr es ent at i on.
REFERENCES
Hat ano, G. , Mi y a k o , Y. , and Bi nks , M. G. " Pe r f or ma nc e of Ex pe r t Aba c us Oper a-
t ors. " Cognition, 5, 5 7 - 7 1 , 1 977.
Hayes , J.R. " O n t he Func t i o n of Vi s ual I ma g e r y i n El e me nt a r y Ma t he ma t i c s . " I n
Visual Information Processing, e di t e d by W. Cha s e . N e w Yor k: Ac a d e mi c Pr es s ,
Inc. , 1 973.
Hayes , J.R., Wa t e r ma n, D. A. , and Robi ns on, C. S. " I de nt i f y i ng t he Re l e v a nt As pe c t s
of a Pr obl e m Te x t . " Cognitive Science, 1(3), 297- 31 3, 1 977.
Hi ns l ey, D. A. , Ha y e s , J. R. , and Si mon, H. A. " F r o m Wor ds t o Equa t i ons : Me a ni ng
and Repr es ent at i on i n Al g e br a Wo r d Pr o bl e ms . " In Cognitive Processes i n Com-
prehension, e di t e d by P. Ca r pe nt e r and M. Just. Hi l l s dal e , NJ: La wr e n c e Er l -
baum, 1 977.
Mc Der mot t , J. R. , and Lar ki n, J. H. " Re pr e s e nt i ng Te s t bo o k Phy s i c s Pr o bl e ms . "
Pr oc eedi ngs of t he S e c o nd Nat i onal Co nf e r e nc e of t he Ca na di a n Soc i et y of Co m-
put at i onal St udi es of I nt e l l i ge nc e , Tor ont o, 1 978.
Pai ge, J. M. , and Si mon, H. A. " Co g ni t i v e Pr oc es s es i n Sol v i ng Al g e br a Wor d Pr ob-
l e ms . " In Problem Solving: Research, Method and Theory, e di t e d by B. Kl ei n-
munt z. Ne w Yor k: John Wi l e y & Sons , Inc. , 1966.
Pol ya, G. How to Solve It, S e c o nd Edi t i on. Pr i nc et on, NJ: Pr i nc e t on Uni v e r s i t y
Pr ess, 1 957.
Wi c kel gr en, W. A. How to Solve Problems. San Fr anc i s c o: W. H. F r e e ma n &. Co. ,
1974.
T WO
SEARCH
On c e pe o pl e ha v e ar r i ved at a c r ude unde r s t andi ng of a p r o b l e ma pr el i mi -
nary r epr es ent at i on of its goal , operat ors, e t c . t h e y c an l a unc h i nt o ^s e a r c h f o r t he
sol ut i on. I n t hi s chapt er , we wi l l de s c r i be t hat s ear ch pr oc es s i n its var i ous f orms
and pr ovi de s ome pract i cal g ui de l i ne s whi c h can he l p y o u i n y our o wn s ol ut i on
searches.
As a me t a phor for t he pr obl e m sol ver ' s s ear ch for sol ut i on, we i ma g i ne a per s on
sear chi ng t hr ough a ma z e . T h e ent r anc e t o t he ma z e i s t he i ni ti al state of t he
pr obl em and its exi t i s t he goal . The paths i n t he ma z e , i nc l udi ng al l its b y wa y s and
blind alleys, cor r espond' " ' J^J^, _probl em^spa: cet hat i s, t o al l t he s e q ue nc e s of
mov e s avai l abl e t o t he pr o bl e m sol ver.
A factor whi c h has an i mpor t ant ef f ect on t he di f f i cul t y of a ma z e i s its s i z e.
Fi gur e 1 s hows six " t r e e " ma z e s whi c h var y i n br anc hi ng, l e ngt h, and s i z e. A tree
maze i s one wi t h no l oops . T h e size of a ma z e i s t he total n u mb e r of di f f erent pat hs
from l op"T6"b6rT6m7TRe ma z e s i n t he uppe r part of t he f i gur e br a nc h t wi c e at e a c h
choi ce poi nt , whi l e t hos e i n t he l o we r part br anc h t hr ee t i mes . Thi s di f f er ence i n
br anchi ng doe s n' t ma k e v e r y mu c h di f f er ence i n s i ze i f t he ma z e i s short. I f t he
maze i s l ong, h o we v e r , i t ma ke s an e nor mous di f f er ence. Not i c e t hat ma z e 6 i s mor e
than 50 t i mes as b i g as ma z e 5. *
Fami l i ar pr obl e ms di f f er a great deal i n si ze. T h e Ri ve r Cr os s i ng Pr o bl e m i n
t he l ast c hapt er has a v e r y smal l pr obl e m s pac e, whi l e t he Combi na t i on Lo c k
Pr obl em i n t he I nt r oduc t i on has a hug e one. Ne we l l and Si mo n ( 1972) es t i mat e t hat
t he si ze of t he pr o bl e m s pa c e for a t ypi cal c hes s g a me i s 1 0
1 2 0
. ( The y a s s ume a g a me
of 40 mov e s wi t h br a nc hi ng of 20 al t er nat i ves pe r move . ) I t wi l l he l p y o u t o unde r -
stand j ust h o w l ar ge a n u mb e r 1 0
1 2 0
i s i f y o u r e c og ni z e t hat t he e s t i mat e d numb e r
of at oms i n t he uni v e r s e i s onl y 1 0
8 0
.
VARIETIES OF SEARCH
Whi l e mos t pe o pl e are v a g ue l y f ami l i ar wi t h "t ri al and e r r or " s ear ch, f e w can
des cr i be ot her sear ch me t hods . I n f act, t her e are a gr eat ma ny s ear c h me t hods . I n
thi s chapt er, we wi l l de s c r i be f our gener al s ear ch me t hods :
* If B is the degree of branching and L is length, then
size = B
L
25
MA Z E 1
br a nc hi ng = 2
l e ngt h = 1
s i ze = 2
1
= 2
MA Z E 2
br a nc hi ng = 3
l engt h = 1
s i ze = 3
1
= 3
Figure 1. Six Tree Mazes
Search
br a nc hi ng = 2
l e ngt h = 3
s i ze = 2
3
= 8
MA Z E 4
G
br a nc hi ng = 3
l e ngt h = 3
s i ze = 3
3
= 27
The Compl et e Problem Sol ver
MA Z E 5
S
br a nc hi ng = 2
l engt h = 10
s i z e = 2
1 0
= 1, 024
30
1. Tr i al and Er r or
2. Pr oxi mi t y Me t ho ds
3. Fr act i onat i on Me t ho ds
4. Kno wl e dg e - b a s e d Me t hods
Unde r s t a ndi ng t he s e st rat egi es and t hei r st rengt hs and we a k ne s s e s i s essent i al for
c hoos i ng g ood pr obl e m s ol vi ng pr oc e dur e s .
TRIAL-AND-ERROR SEARCH
T h e de f i ni ng char act er i st i c of t ri al -and-error s ear ch i s t hat t he s ear cher s ei t her
don' t ha v e or don' t us e i nf or mat i on t hat i ndi cat es t o t he m t hat a ny pat h i s mor e
l i kel y t o l e ad t o t he goal t han any ot her pat h. I n a ma z e , t ri al -and-error s ear cher s
ne v e r k no w t hat t he y are on t he ri ght pat h unt i l t he y ope n t he l ast door and f i nd
t he ms e l v e s out s i de.
Tr i al - and- er r or s ear c h c ome s i n t wo f o r ms blind and systematic. I n bl i nd
sear ch, t he s ear cher s pi c k pat hs t o expl or e bl i ndl y, wi t hout c ons i de r i ng whe t he r
t hey ha v e al r eady e x pl or e d t he pat h. I n s ys t emat i c sear ch, t he s ear cher s k e e p t rack
of t he pat hs wh i c h t he y ha v e al r eady e xpl or e d and c hoos e t o expl or e onl y unex-
pl or e d pat hs. Be c a us e t hi s me t ho d avoi ds mul t i pl e s ear c hes , s ys t emat i c sear ch i s
twice as ef f i ci ent on t he a v e r a ge as bl i nd sear ch.
A Dramat i c Exampl e
S up p o s e t hat y o u ha v e 50 e ggs i n a b a g ba l a nc e d on y our he ad. On e of t he e ggs
i s b r o wn a nd al l t he rest are whi t e. Just as y ou are c r os s i ng a d e e p c has m by
ba l a nc i ng on a f al l en l og, y o u hear a c o mma ndi ng v o i c e say, " S t o p wh e r e you are
and s ho w me t he b r o wn e g g ! " Si nc e y ou ha v e no i de a wha t t hi s mani ac ma y do, y o u
de c i de t o paci f y hi m. Yo u r each i nt o t he ba g wi t h your one f ree ha nd and pul l out
an e gg. It' s whi t e ! Wha t do y ou do n o w? I f y o u put t he whi t e e ggs ba c k wi t h t he
ot her s and k e e p t r yi ng, y o u wi l l be doi ng r el at i vel y i nef f i ci ent blind sear ch. On t he
ave r age , i t wi l l t ake y ou 50 t ri es t o f i nd t he b r o wn e g g and ma y t ake muc h l onger .
Ho we v e r , i f y o u mar k t he e g g s y o u ha v e al r eady e x a mi ne d i n t he onl y wa y y ou can,
by t os s i ng t h e m i nt o t he c has m, y ou wi l l be doi ng a r el at i vel y ef f i ci ent systematic
sear ch. On t he av e r age , i t wi l l t ake y ou onl y 25 t ri es t o f i nd t he b r o wn e gg, and i t
wi l l ne v e r t ake mor e t han 50. Si nc e a l i ttl e r ef l ect i on s ugges t s h o w t rul y d e me nt e d
t hi s pe r s on mus t b e , y o u de c i de t o sacri f i ce your e g g s and go for t he qui c ke r
s ys t emat i c sear ch.
Tr i al - and- er r or s ear c h can be v e r y usef ul for f i ndi ng one' s wa y i n smal l ma z e s
and for s ol vi ng pr obl e ms wi t h smal l pr obl e m s pac es . I n t he Ri v e r Cr os s i ng Pr o bl e m
i n Cha pt e r I , i t i s e as y t o s ear ch t hr ough al l pos s i bl e pat hs t o f i nd t he sol ut i on.
Ho we v e r , as t he s i ze of t he pr obl e m s pac e i nc r eas es , t he me t ho d b e c o me s l ess and
l ess us ef ul . Tr i al and error i s a r eas onabl y comf or t abl e st r at egy for ope ni ng a c om-
bi nat i on l ock wi t h one or e v e n t wo di al s. Wi t h t hr ee di al s (1, 000 pat hs) , i t get s a bi t
bor i ng. Wi t h f i ve di al s (100, 000 pat hs) , we ha v e t o be pr et t y de s pe r a t e t o us e it, and
wi t h 1 0 di al s, as we poi nt e d out i n t he I nt r oduct i on, i t i s es s ent i al l y us el es s unl es s
y o u ha v e a spar e 3 1 7 year s t o i nvest .
Suppos e y o u we r e pas s i ng t hr ough Pi t t s bur gh, and y o u wa nt e d t o cal l y our
f r i end, Bi l l Mi l l er . Wh e n y o u l ook i n t he pho ne book, y o u f i nd t hat t her e are 180
Wi l l i a m Mi l l er s l i st ed. Yo u c oul d cal l t he m one after anot her unt i l y o u f ound t he
ri ght one, but i t wo u l d be far mor e s e ns i bl e t o try anot her st rat egy. You c oul d try
Search 31
PROXIMITY METHODS
Proxi mi t y sear ch me t hods are i n a s ens e j us t one st ep a he a d of t ri al -and-error
search. I n pr oxi mi t y s ear ch, t he s ear cher l ooks exact l y o ne st ep ahead, whi l e i n
tri al -and-error sear ch, t he s ear cher does n' t l ook ahe ad at al l . Thi s one- s t ep di ffer-
enc e, ho we v e r , make s an e nor mous di f f er ence i n t he ef f ec t i venes s of t he me t hods .
Th e t wo pr oxi mi t y me t hods we wi l l di s cus s are " hi l l c l i mb i n g " and " me a ns -
ends anal ys i s . " I n bot h of t hes e me t hods t he bas i c que s t i on i s, " Wha t next st ep can
rtake that wi l l br i ng me c l os er to t he g o a l ? " Ne i t he r me t ho d l ooks b e y o n d t hat one
st ep t o s ee wha t di f f i cul t i es l i e ahead.
The Hill Cl i mbi ng Met hod -y~-
Suppos e t hat y o u are l ost at ni ght i n a f orest. Yo u can' t s e e a t hi ng. Yo u r eas on
that i f y ou we r e on t he t op of a hi l l y o u mi ght be abl e t o spot t he l i ght of a hous e
or a campf i r e. Ca n y o u do any bet t er t han t ri al -and-error s ear c h t o f i nd t he t op of a
hi l l ? I n fact, y ou can do mu c h bet t er ! T h e hi l l - c l i mbi ng me t ho d can gr eat l y r e duc e
t he t i me y o u r equi r e t o r eac h y our goal . T h e me t hod wor ks l i ke t hi s:
J. You put out a foot to t ake a st ep.
2. I f t he st ep i s up, y o u t ake i t and r epeat t he pr oc e dur e .
3. If t he st ep i s d o wn , y o u pul l your f oot back, t ake a quar t er t urn c l oc kwi s e , and
try agai n.
4. I f y ou ha v e t ur ne d a ful l c i r c l e and ha v e f ound not hi ng but st eps d o wn , y o u st op
be c a us e y o u k no w y o u mus t be on t he t op of a hi l l .
Havi ng c o mpl e t e d t he hi l l - c l i mbi ng pr oc e dur e , y o u can n o w l ook ar ound for si gns
of ci vi l i zat i on.
Ho w ef f i ci ent i s t he hi l l - c l i mbi ng me t hod c o mpa r e d t o tri al and error? Ve r y
ef f i ci ent i n hi l l y count r y. For e x a mpl e , i f we we r e s e ar c hi ng for a hi l l t op i n an area
1,000 st eps s quar e, hi l l c l i mbi ng wo u l d be about 1,000 t i mes mor e ef f i ci ent t han
tri al -and-error s ear ch. T h e r el at i ve ef f i ci ency of hi l l c l i mbi ng wo u l d be e v e n
great er for l ar ger s ear ch areas.
De s pi t e its ef f i ci ency, t he hi l l - c l i mbi ng me t ho d has s o me i nhe r e nt we ak-
nesses. To i l l ust rat e, l et ' s pi c k up t he e x a mpl e wh e r e we l ef t off. Ha v i ng r e ac he d
t he t op of t he hi l l , y o u l ook ar ound and s ee not hi ng. Ti r e d and di s c our age d, y ou fal l
as l eep onl y t o wa k e i n ful l mor ni ng l i ght . You l ook and f i nd t o y our surpri se t hat
your hi l l i s ent i r el y s ur r ounde d by mu c h t al l er hi l l s. No w y o u can under s t and wh y
you di dn' t s ee any si gns of ci vi l i zat i on l ast ni ght . Yo u wa nt e d t o be on a tall hi l l , but
t he hi l l - c l i mbi ng me t ho d can' t t el l one hi l l f rom anot her . I t t ook y o u t o t he t op of
t he near est hi l l and t hat ha p p e ne d t o be a smal l one. I f y o u wa nt t o be sure t o f i nd
t he hi ghes t hi l l , t he n y o u wi l l have t o s uppl e me nt t he hi l l c l i mbi ng me t hod wi t h
some ot her me t hod t hat can c hoos e a mong hi l l s or us e a di f f er ent me t hod ent i r el y.
t o r e me mbe r hi s mi ddl e i ni t i al or hi s addr es s . Or y o u c oul d try t o r each a mut ual
f ri end wh o mi ght ha v e hi s numbe r .
T h e moral he r e i s ve r y cl ear. Tri al - and- error s ear ch i s not ef f i ci ent i n l arge
pr obl ems . I f y o u f i nd your s el f doi ng t ri al -and-error s ear ch i n a l ar ge pr obl e m, y ou
s houl d al mos t cer t ai nl y st op and us e a bet t er me t hod.
Some t i me s (alas!) we don' t ha v e a c hoi c e . Tr i al and error ma y t rul y be t he onl y
me t hod avai l abl e. I f so, y ou s houl d c ons i der v e r y car ef ul l y whe t he r s ol vi ng t he
pr obl e m i s wor t h t he cost of t he sear ch. I t ma y we l l not be !
32 The Compl et e Probl em Solver
Figure 2. Hill Cl i mber Wi t h Very Few Hills
Anot he r pr o b l e m wi t h hi l l c l i mbi ng i s t hat i t wor ks we l l onl y wh e n mos t of its
s ear ch area s l opes . I f its s ear c h ar ea i s al mos t ent i r el y flat wi t h an occas i onal ve r y
s t e e p pe a k ( see Fi g ur e 2), t he hi l l c l i mbe r i s ve r y l i t t l e bet t er of f t han t he tri al -and-
error s ear cher .
T h e hi l l - c l i mbi ng me t hod i s i mpor t ant b e c a us e i t c an be us e d and i s us e d t o
s ol ve a wi d e r ange of pr obl e ms . He r e are t wo e v e r y da y e x a mpl e s :
1. Yo u are dr i v i ng i n a st range ci t y and wa nt t o f i nd t he d o wn t o wn area. At eac h
c or ner y o u st op and l ook i n al l di r ect i ons . Yo u pr o c e e d i n t he di r ect i on t hat
appear s bus i es t .
I n t hi s e x a mpl e , t he c hoi c e of st reet s c or r es ponds t o t he c hoi c e of st eps, and t he
a mount of c ommot i on on t he st reet s c or r es ponds t o t he he i g ht of t he st eps. Just as
t he me t ho d ma y t ake y o u t o a l ow hi l l t op wh e n y o u wa nt t he t al l est one, i t may al so
t ake y o u t o a l ocal s ho ppi ng c ent er wh e n y o u wa nt d o wnt o wn.
2. A smal l c hi l d has r eadj us t ed your TV set so t hat i t s hows al l sorts of i nt er es t i ng
di agonal st r i pes. To r et ur n t he set t o its mor e t radi t i onal adj ust ment , y ou b e g i n
t o t wi ddl e knobs . Tha t i s, y ou c hoos e a knob and t urn i t a l i t t l e bi t whi l e wa t c hi ng
t he s c r een. I f t he pi c t ur es get s bet t er , y o u do i t agai n. I f i t get s wor s e , y ou mo v e
i t a l i ttl e i n t he oppos i t e di r ect i on. Wh e n i t get s wor s e wh e n y o u mo v e i n ei t her
di r ect i on, y o u l e a v e i t wh e r e i t i s, ha v i ng f ound t he " r i g ht " adj ust ment . T h e n y o u
do t he s ame for t he ot her k n o b s t h a t i s, y o u " hi l l c l i mb " t o be s t adj us t ment
wi t h e a c h k nob. Si nc e t he adj us t ment of s ome knobs i nf l ue nc e s t he adj ust ment
of ot her s, y o u ma y ha v e t o r edo s ome of t he knobs s ever al t i mes be f or e y ou are
a bl e t o get a d e c e n t pi c t ur e.
After Hill Cl i mbi ng, What ?
I n t he pr obl e ms we us e d t o i l l ust rat e t he hi l l - c l i mbi ng me t hod, t he i ni ti al state
and t he goal di f f er ed i n a s i ngl e di me ns i on, e. g. , hei ght , de ns i t y of bus i ne s s , pi c t ur e
Search 33
qual i t y. Fur t her , i n eac h of t hes e pr obl e ms , t he operat ors (i f t her e wa s mor e t han
one) al l wo r k e d i n es s ent i al l y t he s ame wa y t o c ha ng e t hat s i ngl e di me ns i on, e. g. ,
i n t he TV e x a mpl e , al l of t he knobs c ha ng e d pi ct ur e qual i t y i n r oughl y t he s ame
de gr e e . I n ma ny pr obl e ms , t hough, we mus t deal wi t h di f f er enc es t hat ha v e s ever al
di mens i ons and we mus t deal wi t h t he m by us i ng s pe c i a l i z e d ope r a t or s t ha t i s,
operat ors that c ha nge one or a f e w of t he di me ns i ons but not al l of t he m.
I ma g i ne t hat y ou are a cont ract or bui l di ng a hous e . T h e e mpt y l ot t hat y o u ha v e
ri ght no w di f f ers i n ma ny di me ns i ons f rom your goal . I t doe s n' t ha v e a f oundat i on,
wal l s or roof, pl umbi ng , wi r i ng, or pai nt . Fur t her , y our ope r a t or s ma s ons , car-
pent er s , pl umbe r s , el ect r i ci ans , and p a i nt e r s a r e s pe c i al i z e d. Mas ons c an bui l d
f oundat i ons and wal l s , but t he y can' t pai nt . El ec t r i c i ans can put i n wi r i ng, but not
roofs. Wh e n we we r e t uni ng t he TV set, i t was r e as onabl e t o t ry knobs at r andom
t o s ee what he l pe d. I n bui l di ng a hous e , t hough, t hi s st r at egy wo u l d be was t ef ul
and f ool i sh. I f t he hous e n e e d e d pai nt i ng, we wo ul dn' t r a ndoml y cal l i n pl umbe r s
or carpent ers t o s e e i f t he y he l pe d. We wo u l d a na l y z e wha t sti l l n e e d e d t o be do ne
and search for an appr opr i at e me a ns t o ac c ompl i s h it. Thi s i s j us t wha t t he t ec h-
ni que of me ans - e nds anal ys i s doe s i n s ol vi ng pr obl e ms .
Means-Ends Anal ysi s
Me ans - e nds anal ysi s ( Ne we l l and Si mon, 1972) , l i ke hi l l c l i mbi ng , t ri es t o
reach t he goal by t aki ng a s e q u e nc e of st eps, e a c h of whi c h r e duc e s t he di s t anc e t o
t he goal . T h e me ans - e nds t e c hni que for do i ng t hi s, ho we v e r , i s bot h mor e c ompl e x
and mor e powe r f ul t han t he hi l l - c l i mbi ng t e c hni que . I t c an ha ndl e mor e c om-
pl ex di f f er ences and e mpl o y s s ubgoal s t o he l p e x e c ut e e a c h s t ep.
T h e t e c hni que i nv ol v e s t hr ee pr oc e dur e s :
Procedure
1. Fi nd a l i st of di f f er enc es b e t we e n
t he cur r ent st at e a nd t he goal .
(If you can' t f i nd any di f f er ences ,
report t hat t he pr o bl e m i s s ol ved. )
2. Ta ke t he fi rst di f f er enc e a nd f i nd an
operat or appr opr i at e for r e duc i ng it.
I f you can' t f i nd an appr opr i at e
operator, go t o t he next di f f er ence.
I f you run out of di f f er enc es t o f i nd
operators for, r epor t t hat y ou can' t
s ol ve t he pr obl e m.
3. Compa r e t he c ondi t i ons for a ppl y i ng
t he operat or wi t h t he cur r ent state
to f i nd a di f f er ence. (If t her e i s
no di f f er ence, of c our s e, j us t a ppl y
t he operat or. )
Example
T h e hous e ne e ds pl umbi ng ,
wi r i ng, and pai nt .
Tr y t o hi r e a pl umbe r .
I f t he pl umb e r i s out of t own,
t ry t o hi r e an el ect r i ci an.
I f e v e r y o ne i s out of t own for
a bui l de r ' s c onv e nt i on, g i v e
u p a t l east for now.
T h e pai nt er says he' l l do t he
j ob, but he br oke hi s l adder .
If t her e i s a di f f er enc e, try to r e duc e it. L e n d t he pai nt er y our l adder .
f oundat i on wa l l s roof p l u mb i ng wi r i ng pai nt i ng
ma s on
X X
c ar pent er
X X
p l u mb e r
X
el ec t r i c i an X
pai nt er X
He r e i s anot her e x a mpl e . I ma g i ne t hat Vl a d i s a Sl ov a k emi gr ant i n t he 1880' s
wh o i s we l l t r ai ned i n me ans - e nds anal ysi s. Vl a d i s t r avel i ng f r om hi s nat i ve vi l l age
of Bi c s ke , 35 mi l e s we s t of Budape s t , t o Pi t t s bur gh, Pe nns y l v a ni a , t o wo r k i n t he
st eel mi l l s . Th e r e are s ever al me ans of t ransport at i on avai l abl e whi c h are s ui t ed t o
var i ous pur pos e s . T h e s e me ans and e nds can be s umma r i z e d as f ol l ows :
s hi p trai n c oac h t r ol l ey wa l k i ng
l ar ge oc e an di s t anc es
X
l ar ge l and di s t anc es
X
me d i u m di s t anc es
X X
me di um- s ma l l di s t anc es ,
ur ban areas
X
smal l di s t anc es
X
Vl a d l ooks i n hi s atl as and di s c over s t hat Pi t t s bur gh i s s epar at ed f rom Bi c s ke by
a v e r y l ar ge o c e a n. The me a ns - e nds t abl e i ndi cat es t hat hi s ori gi nal i nt ent i on t o t ake
a s t agec oac h i s out . On l y a s hi p wi l l do. T h e first t r avel a ge nt he s peaks t o can
ar r ange pas s age for hi m on a v e r y ni c e s hi p t o Cal c ut t a. Vl a d rej ect s thi s offer
Some t i me s i t i s c onv e ni e nt t o s ho w t he r el at i on b e t we e n means and ends i n a
me ans - e nds t abl e s uc h as t hi s:
Search 35
be c aus e hi s atl as s hows t hat Cal c ut t a i s e v e n f art her f rom Pi t t s bur gh t han Bi c s ke i s.
Af ter al l , hi s goal i s t o reduce t he di s t ance b e t we e n hi m and Pi t t s bur gh. T h e s e c ond
agent offers hi m pas s age on a shi p sai l i ng f rom Br e me n t o N e w York. Si nc e Ne w
Yor k i s muc h cl oser t o Pi t t sbur gh t han Bi c s ke , Vl a d b uy s a t i cket for Ne w York.
No w Vl ad has i dent i f i ed an operat or for r e duc i ng hi s di s t ance f rom
Pi t t s bur g ht a ki ng a shi p f rom Br e me n. But he can' t appl y i t be c a us e t he operat or
has a c o n d i t i o n h e has t o be i n Br e me n t o sai l . So Vl a d set s up a s u b g o a l t o ge t
from Bi c s ke t o Br e me n. Re l y i ng on hi s atl as and hi s me ans - e nds t abl e, he de c i de s
to t ake a trai n. For t unat el y, he i s abl e to buy a t i cket for an expr es s trai n f rom
Budape s t t o Br e me n. He r e agai n, t he operat or i mpos e s a c o n d i t i o n Vl a d has t o ge t
t o Budapes t t o t ake t he trai n. So he sets up a n e w s ubgoal t o get f rom Bi c s ke t o
Budapes t . Si nce Bi c s ke i s out i n t he st i cks, t he me a ns - e nds t abl e t el l s Vl ad t hat he
has onl y one opt i on, t he s t agec oac h. Si nc e t he c oac h doe s n' t st op at Vl ad' s hove l ,
he has t o set up one mor e s u b g o a l t o ge t t o t he c oac h st op. Hi s r el i abl e me ans -
ends t abl e t el l s hi m t o wal k.
HILL CLIMBING AND MEANS-ENDS ANALYSIS: A COMPARI SON
Bot h met hods s ear ch for a next st ep whi c h wi l l r e duc e t he di s t ance t o t he goal .
Means - ends anal ysi s i s a mor e powe r f ul me t hod t han hi l l c l i mbi ng be c a us e :
1. i t can c ons i der ma ny di me ns i ons of di f f er ence b e t we e n t he cur r ent state and t he
goal , and
2. i t can set up a s e q ue nc e of s ubgoal s t o he l p i n a c c ompl i s hi ng t he next st ep.
Be c a us e bot h me t hods l ook onl y one st ep ahead, bot h ha v e di f f i cul t y wi t h bl i nd
al l eys and det our pr obl e ms . For e x a mpl e , i n s ol vi ng t he Ri ve r Cr os s i ng Pr obl e m i n
Chapt er 1, i t i s ne c e s s ar y at s ome poi nt for t he f armer t o t ake one of hi s pos s es s i ons
back across t he r i ver a wa y f rom t he goal . Hi l l c l i mbe r s , me a ns - e nds anal yz er s , and,
not i nci dent al l y, pe o pl e , ha v e t r oubl e wi t h pr obl e ms of t hi s ki nd.
I n t he next s ect i on, a mong ot her t hi ngs, we wi l l di s c us s s ome pr oc e dur e s
whi c h can he l p us out of our di f f i cul t i es wi t h det our pr obl e ms .
FRACTIONATION METHODS
A ver y powe r f ul wa y t o si mpl i f y t he sear ch for a s ol ut i on i s t o br eak t he pr obl e m
i ntoj aarts. I ma g i ne t hat y o u are wor ki ng your wa y t hr ough a t ree ma z e that has a
l engt h of t en, and has t wo al t er nat i ves at e a c h of t en c hoi c e poi nt s . I n t hi s ma z e , y o u
woul d have t o f i nd t he goal a mong 2
1 0
or 1, 024 al t er nat i ves . But not i c e h o w t hi s
si tuati on wo u l d c ha ng e i f s ome one wh o k n e w t he ma z e ga v e y o u t he f ol l owi ng hi nt .
_The last per s on t o s ol ve t he ma z e l ost hi s p u p p y hal f way t hr ough t he. maz e- T h e
puppy i s now si t t i ng r i ght i n f ront of t he door t hr ough wh i c h t he sol ut i on pat h and
his mast er pas s ed. No w y o u can br eak t he pr obl e m i nt o t wo part s. As asuhgoal, you
first search for and r e s c ue t he puppy . Th e n , wh e n y o u ha v e f ound it, y o u can sear ch
foTtrre-exit f rom t her e. Br e a ki ng t he pr obl e m i nt o parts i s a real advant age be c a us e
sol vi ng t he t wo s ubpr obl e ms i s eas i er t han s ol vi ng t he ori gi nal pr obl e m. Fi g ur e 3
i l l ustrates t he poi nt . Si nc e y o u k no w t hat t he p u p p y i s l oc at ed hal f way t hr ough t he
maz e, t here are j us t 2
5
or 32 pl ac e s wh e r e i t ma y be . On c e y o u f i nd t he puppy , t her e
are j ust f i ve mor e st eps t o r eac h t he goal , and, t her ef or e, j us t 32 al t er nat i ve pat hs t o
t he exi t. To f i nd t he p u p p y and t hen f i nd t he goal wi l l r e qui r e us t o e xami ne no
more t han 32 + 32 or 64 al t er nat i ves. Wi t hout t he hi nt , we wo u l d ha v e t o e xami ne
a maxi mum of 1, 024 al t er nat i ves.
Whe r e does thi s advant age c o me f r om? Wh e n we c o me t o a door hal f way
t hr ough t he ma z e and i t doe s n' t ha v e a p u p p y i n f ront of it, we k no w t hat we don' t
> 32 paths to here
1,024 paths to here
32 paths
Y
1,024 paths
Figure 3. An Exampl e of Breaki ng a Probl em Into Parts
ha v e t o e xpl or e any of t he 32 pat hs whi c h l i e b e y o nd. Si nc e t her e are 31 doors
wi t hout puppi e s , t hat me a ns t hat we el i mi nat e 31 X 32 or 992 pat hs .
Br e a ki ng t he pr o bl e m i nt o part s, t hen, has r e duc e d t he a mount of s ear ch we have
1024
t o do by a f act or of , or 16. It i s s ur pr i s i ng wha t one l i t t l e s ubgoal can do. Ha v i ng
64
s ever al s ubgoal s wo u l d he l p e v e n mor e.
Cl e ar l y , i f s o me o ne gi v e s y o u a s ubgoal , as i n t he e x a mpl e a bov e , that wi l l he l p
y o u t o s ol ve t he pr obl e m. But i n mos t cases y ou ar en' t g i v e n s ubgoal s . You ha v e t o
f i nd t he m for your sel f . Ho w c an y o u do t hat ?
Suppo s e t hat y o u are t r yi ng t o s ol ve a pr obl e m l i ke t hat r e pr e s e nt e d i n Fi g-
ur e 4. Yo u are g i v e n A and s o me h o w y o u ha v e t o ge t t o G. Yo u ma y be abl e t o f i nd
a us ef ul s ubgoal i f y o u wor k i nt o t he pr obl e m ei t her f or war d or ba c kwa r d. Fo r ex-
a mpl e , i f y o u are a bl e t o ge t f rom A t o B, t he n y o u can set up t he s ubgoal of get t i ng
f rom B t o G . * I f y o u c an ge t f r o mG t o F , t hen y our s ubgoal i s get t i ng f r o mF t o A.
*The hi l l -cl i mbi ng method and means-ends analysis break up the probl em in just
this way.
Search 37
I I U I I I I L _ J I l
Figure 6. First Subgoal in t he Figure 7. Second Subgoal in the
Tower of Hanoi Probl em Tower of Hanoi Probl em
Not i ce that y o u may set up s ubgoal s i n thi s wa y whi c h are not us ef ul . For e x a mpl e ,
s uppos e that y o u di s c ov e r that y ou can ge t t o M f rom A, and set up t he s ubgoal t o
get from M to G. In fact, t her e i s no pat h f rom M to G so t hat t hi s s ubgoal can' t be
ac hi eved. Subgoal s are so usef ul i n pr obl e m s ol vi ng t hat i t i s al mos t al way s advi sa-
bl e t o search for t he m, e v e n t hough we s ome t i me s f i nd one s t hat are not us ef ul .
Anot her wa y t o f i nd s ubgoal s i s t o anal yz e t he goal we are t r yi ng t o r each. Thi s
process i s i l l ust rat ed i n t he T o we r of Hanoi Pr obl e m s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 5. T h e
pr obl em i s t o mo v e t he di sks f rom t he l ef t p e g t o t he ri ght p e g wi t h t he f ol l owi ng
restri cti ons:
1. onl y one di sk can be mo v e d at a t i me, and
2. a l arge di sk mus t ne v e r be pl a c e d on a smal l di sk.
Figure 8. Subgoal s Can be Used to Gui de t he Probl em Sol ver Around Det ours
Ex a mi ni ng t he goal , we can ask wha t part of t he goal i s t he har des t t o a c hi e v e .
Si nc e t he s e c ond rest ri ct i on const rai ns t he smal l di sk l east , and t he l arge di sk most ,
we may r eas on t hat get t i ng t he l ar ge di sk i n pl ac e i s t he har des t part t o a c hi e v e .
The r e f or e , we set as our s ubgoal t he state of affairs s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 6, wi t h t he
ot her di sks at uns pe c i f i e d l ocat i ons. By c ompar i ng t he s ubgoal wi t h t he i ni ti al state,
we can s ee t hat t he i ni t i al state c oul d be t r ansf or med i nt o t he s ubgoal i f t he t wo
s mal l er di sks we r e r e mo v e d. Thi s s ugges t s t he s e c ond s ubgoal s ho wn i n Fi gur e 7.
Ar me d wi t h t hes e t wo s ubgoal s , mos t f i nd i t qui t e eas y t o s ol v e t he pr obl e m.
T h e us e of s ubgoal s i n t he T o we r of Hanoi Pr obl e m i l l ust rat es a s ec ond ver y
i mpor t ant f unct i on of s ubgoal s : subgoals can be used to guide the problem solver
around detours. Fi g ur e 8 i l l ust rat es t hi s poi nt .
Wi t h t he i ni t i al state at A and t he goal a t G , pr o bl e m s ol ver s us i ng a di st ance-
r e duc i ng me t ho d are b o u n d t o r un i nt o t he barri er. Ho we v e r , i f we pr ov i de a
s ubgoal , S, t o l e ad t he pr obl e m sol ver s i n a det our ar ound t he barri er, t he y c an us e
t hei r di s t anc e r e duc i ng me t hods first to get f rom A to S and t hen f rom S to G.
To s e e t hat t he T o we r of Ha noi Pr o bl e m i s a det our pr obl e m, l ook at Fi g ur e 9.
T h e f i gur e s hows t he c ompl e t e sol ut i on, t oget her wi t h a me a s ur e of t he di s t anc e
f rom t he goal at e a c h st ep. Si nc e t he obj ec t i ve wa s t o ge t t hr ee pe g s off di s k 1 and
ont o di s k 3, di s t anc e t o t he goal was me a s ur e d as f ol l ows :
Di s t a nc e = di sks on p e g 1 + di s ks off p e g 3
As y ou can s e e , t he s ol ut i on r equi r es y o u t o t ake t wo st eps t hat i nc r eas e t he di s t ance
t o t he g o a l g o a l st ep 3 and st ep 5. Th e s e det our s di s appear , ho we v e r , i f y ou us e
t he t wo s ubgoal s , SI and S2, f ound by anal y z i ng t he goal . Fi g ur e 9 s hows that
t r avel i ng f rom t he start t o SI and f rom S2 t o t he goal r equi r es onl y f or war d mov e s .
Thi s si t uat i on i s r e pr e s e nt e d i n Fi g ur e 10.
T h e s ol ut i on me t ho d c al l e d abstraction al so wor ks by gener at i ng s ubgoal s .
Suppos e t hat y o u are s ol v i ng a pr obl e m wi t h s ever al r es t r i c t i ons , X, Y, a n d Z . Si nc e
you are ha v i ng t r oubl e, y ou t urn t o t he me t ho d of abst ract i on. Wi t h thi s me t hod, y ou
br eak t he pr o bl e m i nt o part s. Fi rst , y ou dr op s ome of t he rest ri ct i ons, say Y a n d Z ,
and s ol ve t he r es ul t i ng " abs t r ac t e d" pr obl e m. Next , y ou try t o fix up t hi s sol ut i on,
so t hat rest ri ct i on Y i s sat i sf i ed. Fi nal l y, y ou try t o fix t he sol ut i on agai n so t hat t he
rest ri ct i on Z i s sat i sf i ed and t he ori gi nal pr obl e m i s s ol ved.
Let ' s i l l ust rat e t hi s wi t h a pr obl e m. Suppo s e t hat we are r unni ng a me e t i ng of
1 6 pe o pl e , mal es and f e mal e s , f rom f our c ompa ni e s and o c c upy i ng f our pos i t i ons ,
as s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 1 1 . Ou r pr obl e m i s t o or gani ze f our, f our - per son gr oups wi t h t he
rest ri ct i ons t hat e a c h t ask gr oup i nc l ude :
-Z. a pe r s on f rom e a c h c ompa ny
2. a pe r s on f rom e a c h posi t i on
3. t wo mal e s and t wo f emal es .
Sol v i ng thi s pr o bl e m by abst ract i on, we start by s ol vi ng i t j us t for rest ri ct i on 1.
Thi s sol ut i on, s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 1 2, i s ve r y eas y t o a c hi e v e .
Ne x t we fix up t he sol ut i on so t hat i t sati sf i es rest ri ct i on 2. Thi s sol ut i on, s hown
i n Fi g ur e 1 3, i s al so eas y t o a c hi e v e . As we can s ee, ho we v e r , t he pr opos e d sol ut i on
does not ba l a nc e al l of t he gr oups by sex. Gr oups 2 and 4 are ba l a nc e d but 1 and 3
are not. Ho we v e r , t hi s sol ut i on can be f i xed up by e x c ha ng i ng t he t wo pe o pl e f rom
c ompa ni e s A and C i n gr oup 1 wi t h t hos e i n gr oup 3.
Fi nal l y, and pe r haps mos t i mpor t ant , we can set up us ef ul s ubgoal s wh e n we
are de a l i ng wi t h f ami l i ar cl as s es of pr obl e ms . Wh e n we are wr i t i ng a n es s ay, we
k no w t hat we can br e ak t he t ask i nt o pa r t s r e s e a r c h, br ai ns t or mi ng, or gani zat i on,
wr i t i ng a draft, r evi s i ng, get t i ng out s i de cri t i ci sm. We k no w t hi s be c a us e we are
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Figure 9. Sol uti on to the Tower of Hanoi Probl em
f ami l i ar wi t h wr i t i ng t asks. I n t he s ame wa y , i n s ol vi ng a g e ome t r y pr obl e m, we
know t hat our first s ubgoal s houl d be t o dr a w a f i gure.
USING KNOWLEDGE IN PROBLEM SOLVI NG
Learning
I f you k n e w t hat y o u we r e g oi ng t o ha v e t o r un t he s ame ma z e 50 t i mes , y ou
woul d cer t ai nl y ma ke a poi nt of t r yi ng t o l ear n us ef ul t hi ngs a bout t he ma z e . For
A, B , C , D are c ompa ni e s
1, 2, 3, 4 are t abl es
Figure 1 1 . Sol vi ng by Abstracti on for Restriction 1
Search
F = f e mal e , M = ma l e
1, 2, 3, 4 are t abl es
A, B , C , D are c ompa ni e s
L, M, R, S are pr of es s i ons
Figure 1 2 . Sol vi ng by Abstracti on for Restrictions 1 and 2
exampl e, you wo u l d try t o r e c og ni z e bl i nd- al l ey ent r anc es so as not t o s t umbl e i nt o
t hem agai n. You wo u l d pr oba bl y try t o r e me mb e r t he mo v e j us t be f or e t he e nd, and
on a part i cul arl y s ucces s f ul r un y ou mi ght wa nt t o r e me mb e r y our first f e w mov e s
as wel l . As y ou gai n e x pe r i e nc e wi t h t he ma z e , t he ol d pat t erns wi l l g r ow and n e w
ones wi l l be a dde d unt i l t he y b l e n d t oget her t o c ov e r t he wh o l e sol ut i on pat h. As
t he patterns gr ow, t he n u mb e r of errors y ou ma k e wi l l de c r e a s e unt i l f i nal l y y ou can
run t he ma z e per f ect l y.
Cl ear l y, pat t ern l ear ni ng c an r e duc e t he di f f i cul t y of s ear ch enor mous l y. It ' s
fortunate t hat t hi s i s so, for ot he r wi s e we wo u l d al l wa s t e a great deal of t i me f i ndi ng
our wa y ho me at ni ght .
Searching for auxiliary problems is a v e r y powe r f ul pr obl e m- s ol v i ng t ec h-
ni que whi c h i s ef f ect i ve exact l y be c a us e i t pr ovi des oppor t uni t y for r e l e vant l earn-
i ng. Whe n we are ha v i ng di f f i cul t y wi t h a pr obl e m, we c an t ry t o pos e a r el at ed,
easi er auxi l i ary pr obl e m for our s el ves . We do t hi s b e c a us e by s ol v i ng t he eas i er
pr obl em, we hope t o l ear n s ome t hi ng t hat wi l l he l p us s ol v e t he har der pr obl e m.
For e xampl e , c ons i der t he Ei g ht Dot s Pr obl e m i n Cha pt e r 1 . We can cr eat e an
easi er auxi l i ary pr o bl e m qui t e ha ndi l y i n t hi s case j us t by r e duc i ng t he numb e r of
dots. Sol ve t he Ei g ht Dot s Pr obl e m by fi rst s ol vi ng t hi s one :
Figure 1 3. Solution of t he Abstracti on Probl em
PATTERN MATCHI NG
Pl a y i ng 50 g a me s of c hes s or of poke r i sn' t l i ke r unni ng t he s ame ma z e 50 t i mes.
Ea c h c hes s g a me and e a c h poke r g a me i s uni que . St i l l , t her e are ma ny pat t erns t o
be l e ar ne d wh i c h can be usef ul i n l at er pl ay, e. g. , st andar d c hes s gambi t s and
e nd- g a me si t uat i ons.
T h e i mpor t anc e of s uc h pat t erns i n c hes s has b e e n de mons t r at e d by de Gr oot
and by Si mon and hi s col l abor at or s i n a si gni f i cant ser i es of st udi es. Th e s e i nves t i -
gat i ons we r e s par ked by a sur pr i si ng di s c ov e r y ma de by de Gr oot ( 1965) , wh o was
t r yi ng t o a ns we r t he que s t i on, " Wh y are c hes s mast er s bet t er t han we a k e r pl a y e r s ? "
_ o
t hen t hi s one :
_ o O
and t he n t hi s one :
_ o o o
As y o u s ol v e e a c h pr obl e m, be caref ul t o not i c e any t hi ng y o u l ear n t hat hel ps y ou
t o s ol ve t he next har der pr obl e m.
Fr e q ue nt l y y ou can cr eat e an eas i er auxi l i ar y pr o bl e m by r e duc i ng t he numbe r
of e l e me nt s i n t he pr obl e m or t he numbe r of const rai nt s.
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I t was c ommonl y b e l i e v e d t hat wh e n c hes s mast er s c hos e a mo v e , t hey ei t her
exami ned mor e al t er nat i ves t han we a k e r pl ayer s or e x a mi ne d t he al t er nat i ves i n
great er d e p t h t h a t i s, t he y l ooke d f urt her ahead t han we a k e r pl ayer s . De Gr oot
f ound that nei t her of t hes e bel i ef s wa s t rue. Bot h mast er s and we a k e r pl ayer s
t ypi cal l y e x a mi ne d b e t we e n 30 and 50 mo v e s , and bot h s e a r c he d t o a de pt h of t wo
or t hr ee mov e s on t he aver age. T h e onl y t hi ng t hat s e e me d r eal l y di f f erent about
t he mast er s' pl ay was t hat t he y ma de bet t er mo v e s !
Whi l e c onduc t i ng hi s i nves t i gat i ons , de Gr oot not i c e d a cur i ous t hi ng. I f t he
chess mast ers l ooke d at a c hes s pos i t i on for onl y a f e w s e c onds , t he y c oul d re-
me mbe r i t r emar kabl y we l l f a r bet t er t han we a k e r pl ayer s . T h e mas t er s ' abi l i t y t o
r e me mbe r chess posi t i ons was n' t a gener al me mo r y ski l l . Wh e n t he y we r e as ked t o
r e me mbe r r andom ar r angement s of c hes s pi e c e s , t he y di d no bet t er t han t he we a k e r
pl ayers. Thei r super i or abi l i t y t o r e me mb e r c hes s posi t i ons d e p e n d e d s peci f i cal l y
on t hei r superi or k n o wl e d g e of c hes s .
Thi s obs er vat i on s ugges t s an expl anat i on for t he mas t er s ' s uper i or abi l i t y t o
fi nd good mov e s . T h e expl anat i on has b e e n ar t i cul at ed be s t by Si mon and hi s
col l aborat ors:
1 . Chess_masters can r e me mb e r br i ef l y e x pos e d c hes s pos i t i ons be c a us e t he y ha v e
l i v e r y l arge numb e r of c hes s pat t erns st or ed i n me mor y . T h e s e pat t erns al l ow t he
"^master to r e me mb e r a c hes s pos i t i on as a c ombi nat i on of a smal l numbe r of f ai rl y
l arge pat t erns al r eady f ami l i ar t o t hem. Le s s e x pe r i e nc e d c hes s pl ayer s mus t t ry
t o r e me mbe r c hes s posi t i ons as a l ar ge numb e r of s mal l er p a t t e r ns a mor e
di f f i cul t task.
Si mon and Gi l mar t i n ( 1973) t es t ed t hi s t heor y by c omput e r si mul at i on. T h e y
const r uct ed a pr ogr am, c al l ed MA P P , whi c h r e me mb e r e d c hes s boar d posi t i ons
by c ompar i ng t he m t o pat t erns st ored i n its me mor y . Gi v e n about 1,000 pat t erns,
MAP P di d bet t er t han c hes s be g i nne r s but onl y hal f as we l l as mast er s. On t he
basi s of t hei r s i mul at i on, Si mon and Gi l mar t i n es t i mat e t hat mast ers have be -
t we e n 10,000 and 100, 000 c hes s pat t erns st ored i n me mor y .
2. Che s s mast ers can f i nd bet t er mov e s t han we a k e r pl ayer s for a g i v e n a mount of
search be c a us e t he c he s s mast ers ha v e a l arger c ol l ec t i on of pat t erns st or ed i n
memor y. T h e y can r e c og ni z e bet t er t han we a k e r pl ayer s t hat a par t i cul ar pat t ern
on t he c hes s boar d r equi r es a part i cul ar r es pons e. T h e y ma y r e c ogni z e , for
exampl e, t hat a boar d pos i t i on i s si mi l ar t o one i n a g a me t he y are f ami l i ar wi t h,
e. g. , " Oh , thi s i s l i ke Ga me 3 of Fi s c he r ver s us Spas s ky . " Thi s r ec ogni t i on wi l l
often s ugges t a mo v e si mi l ar t o one i n t he ori gi nal game .
Ho w l ong doe s i t t ake a c hes s mast er t o l ear n t he pat t erns on whi c h hi s ski l l i s
bas ed? Si mon and Cha s e ( 1973) es t i mat e t hat t o b e c o me a gr and mas t er r equi r es
from 10,000 t o 50, 000 hour s st ari ng at c hes s posi t i ons. T h e y not e t hat no one has
r eached t he gr and mas t er l e v e l wi t h l ess t han about a de c a de ' s i nt ens e pr e oc c upa -
ti on wi t h t he game .
SEARCH ALGORITHMS
Somet i mes wh e n we are s ear c hi ng for t he sol ut i on t o a pr obl e m, we us e pr oc e-
dures that are of t en us ef ul , but are by no me ans guar ant eed t o pr o duc e t he s ol ut i on
of t he pr obl em. Suc h pr oc e dur e s are c al l e d search heuristics. Hi l l c l i mbi ng , me a ns -
ends anal ysi s, and l ooki ng for auxi l i ar y pr obl e ms are al l e x a mpl e s of s ear ch heur i s -
ti cs. For s ome cl asses of pr obl e ms , t hough, t her e are pr oc e dur e s whi c h, i f cor r ect l y
appl i ed, are guar ant eed t o y i e l d t he ri ght sol ut i on. T h e s e pr oc e dur e s are c al l e d
algorithms.
Th e l ong- di vi s i on pr oc e dur e i s an e x a mpl e of a s ear c h al gor i t hm. Wh e n y ou
r ecogni ze that y o u are de a l i ng wi t h a di vi s i on pr obl e m, y o u c an a ppl y t he me t ho d
and be sure of get t i ng t he ans wer . Yo u can s ol ve di v i s i on pr obl e ms by t ri al -and-
error search, but i t i s v e r y i nef f i ci ent wi t h c o mpl e x pr obl e ms . I f I as ke d y ou t o
di vi de 19 i nt o 323, y o u c oul d carry out a s ys t emat i c t ri al - and- error s ear ch as f ol l ows :
" 1 9 x 1 = 1 9. No , that' s not it.
19 x 2 = 38. No , that' s not it.
1 9 x 3 = 57, e t c . "
Cl e a r l y t he l ong- di vi s i on al gor i t hm i s bet t er .
We al l l ear n a n u mb e r of s ear ch al gor i t hms i n s chool . We l ear n about " c ompl e t -
i ng t he s qua r e " i n al gebr a, " ba l a nc i ng e qua t i ons " i n c hemi s t r y, t he " r i ght - hand
r ul e " i n phy s i c s , t he Phy t ha gor e a n t he or e m i n geomet r y, and s o on.
A s ear ch al gor i t hm whi c h y o u ma y not k no w i s t he maze algorithm. T h e ma z e
al gor i t hm i nsur es t hat wh e n y o u ent er a ma z e , y o u wi l l always be abl e t o f i nd t he
exi t . T h e al gor i t hm i s v e r y s i mpl e . As y o u ent er t he ma z e , put y our ha nd on t he wal l ,
and keep i t there as y ou wa l k t hr ough t he maz e . Tr y t he al gor i t hm wi t h t he ma z e
s hown i n Fi g ur e 1 4. I ma g i ne first t hat y ou are wa l k i ng t hr ough t he ma z e wi t h your
ri ght ha nd on t he wal l . T h e n t ry i t us i ng your l ef t hand.
Not i c e t hat y ou t ook a di f f erent pat h t o t he exi t wh e n y o u us e d your l ef t ha nd
t han wh e n y o u us e d y our r i ght hand. Ei t her ha nd wi l l wor k, but i t i s i mpor t ant not
t o s wi t c h ha nds ! I f y o u s wi t c h f rom ri ght t o l ef t wh e n y o u get t o t he ar r ow ( see
Fi g ur e 14) , y o u wi l l never get out of t he ma z e . T h e advant age t hat t he ma z e
al gor i t hm gi ve s i s t hat i t i ns ur es t hat y ou won' t ge t c aught wa nde r i ng i n ci r cl es
t hr ough t he ma z e .
The split-half method i s anot her sear ch al gor i t hm and a v e r y us ef ul one. It i s
us e d by el ec t r i c i ans , me c ha ni c s , el ec t r oni c s t ec hni c i ans , and ot hers t o l ocat e t rou-
bl e s i n f aul t y e qui pme nt . As an e x a mpl e of its us e, s uppos e t hat y our f ront door bel l
Start
Figure 1 4. A Practi ce Maz e for the Maz e Al gori thm
Search 45
Figure 1 5 . Usi ng t he Split-half Al gori thm to Locate a Current Break
doesn' t work. You f i nd t hat i t i sn' t get t i ng cur r ent , e v e n t hough t he p o we r s uppl y
i n t he ki t chen i s wor ki ng f i ne. Th e r e mus t be a br e ak s o me wh e r e i n t he 20 f eet of
wal l b e t we e n t he ki t c he n and t he f ront door. You wa nt t o l ocat e t he br e ak wi t h a
mi ni mum of da ma ge t o your hous e . Us i ng t he spl i t - hal f t e c hni que , y ou ma k e a hol e
hal f way b e t we e n t he ki t c he n and t he be l l , and t est t he wi r e for cur r ent . I f t her e i s
current, t hen t he br eak mus t be b e t we e n t he hol e and t he f ront door. Ap p l y i ng t he
t ec hni que agai n, y ou ma k e a s e c ond hol e hal f - way b e t we e n t he fi rst hol e and t he
bel l . I f you di dn' t f i nd cur r ent on your first test, t he br e ak mus t be b e t we e n t he hol e
and t he ki t chen. I n t hi s case y ou wo u l d ha v e ma de t he s e c ond hol e hal f way be -
t we e n t he first hol e and t he ki t c hen. I f y o u ma k e hol e s t hat are about t hr ee i nc he s
across, you s houl d ne v e r ha v e t o ma k e mor e t han si x of t he m t o f i nd t he br eak, as
s hown i n Fi g ur e 1 5.
SUMMARY: SEARCHING FOR SOLUTI ONS
We have di s c us s e d f our gener al me t hods for s e ar c hi ng for pr o bl e m sol ut i ons:
Tri al and error
Pr oxi mi t y me t hods
Fr act i onat i on me t hods , and
Kno wl e dg e - ba s e d me t hods .
1. Tri al -and-error sear ch i s usef ul onl y i n smal l pr o bl e m s pac es . Sys t emat i c tri al -
and-error search i s t wi c e as ef f i ci ent as bl i nd t ri al -and-error sear ch.
2. Proxi mi t y met hods at t empt t o s ol ve pr obl e ms by s e l e c t i ng a s t ep at a t i me, e a c h
of whi c h r educ es t he di s t ance t o t he goal .
a. Th e hi l l - c l i mbi ng me t hod s ees j us t one ki nd of di f f er enc e b e t we e n t he cur-
rent state and t he goal , e. g. , hei ght , pi c t ur e qual i t y. Al l its operat ors ha v e t he
same e f f e c t t o c ha ng e t hat di f f er ence.
b. Means - ends anal ysi s can handl e ma ny ki nds of di f f er enc es i n t he s ame pr ob-
l em. I t e mpl oy s s pe c i a l i z e d operat ors whi c h ha v e di f f er ent ef f ect s on t he
di f f er ences. If i t runs i nt o di f f i cul t i es i n a ppl y i ng an operat or, i t can set up a
s e que nc e of s ubgoal s t o r e duc e t hat di f f er ence.
Al l pr oxi mi t y me t hods ha v e t r oubl e wi t h det our pr obl e ms .
3. Fr act i onat i on me t hods i nv ol v e br e aki ng t he pr obl e m i nt o a s e que nc e of smal l er
part s, t hat , i s, by s et t i ng up s ubgoal s . Subgoal s ma k e pr obl e ms eas i er t o s ol ve
b e c a us e t he y r e duc e t he amount of sear ch r e qui r e d t o f i nd t he sol ut i on, and t he y
ma y g ui de t he pr obl e m s ol ver ar ound a det our . ~
We can set up s ubgoal s by wor ki ng part wa y i nt o t he pr obl e m, anal yz i ng t he
goal t o be a c hi e v e d, dr oppi ng s ome of t he pr obl e m rest ri ct i ons and s ol vi ng t he
" a bs t r a c t e d" pr obl e m, or us i ng k n o wl e d g e of f ami l i ar pr o bl e m t ypes .
4. Kno wl e d g e - b a s e d me t hods us e i nf ormat i on st or ed i n t he pr o b l e m sol ver' s me m-
or y t o g ui de t he s ear ch for sol ut i on. Pr obl e m sol ver s ma y set out t o ac qui r e t he
n e e d e d k n o wl e d g e wh e n t he y ha v e di f f i cul t y. For e x a mpl e , t he y ma y s ol ve a n
auxi l i ar y pr obl e m t o l ear n h o w t o s ol v e t he one t he y are ha v i ng di f f i cul t y wi t h.
Or pr o bl e m s ol ver s ma y us e i nf or mat i on al r eady k no wn t o t he m, as wh e n a ches s
pl a y e r us es st or ed c hes s pat t er ns, a puz z l e ent hus i as t r e c og ni z e s a pr o bl e m t ype
and appl i es a pr o bl e m s c he ma, or a me c ha ni c appl i es a s ear c h al gor i t hm s uch as
t he spl i t - hal f t e c hni que .
EXECUTING THE SOLUTI ON PLAN
On c e we ha v e pl a nne d a sol ut i on t o a pr obl e m, we ha v e t o carry i t out. Some -
t i mes e x e c ut i on of t he pl an i s qui t e eas y. I n t he Dr i ve r ' s Li c e ns e Pr obl e m, for
e xampl e , t he har d par t i s f i gur i ng out wha t equat i ons we wa nt t o s ol ve. Car r yi ng out
t he sol ut i on i s r out i ne al gebr a. We ne e d onl y t ake car e not t o ma k e d u mb mi st akes
whi c h wi l l spoi l our br i l l i ant l y c o nc e i v e d pl an. ( Du mb mi s t akes gi v e pe o pl e far
mor e t r oubl e t han t he y ma y car e t o admi t . )
I n ot her c as es , e x e c ut i on i s by no me a ns t ri vi al . For e x a mpl e , after we have
pl a nne d an es s ay, we f i nd that t ur ni ng our pl an i nt o s moot hl y f l owi ng s ent enc es or
e v e n i nt o mar gi nal l y i nt el l i gi bl e scr awl i s v e r y di f f i cul t i nde e d. Fr e que nt l y t he
pl an has t o be modi f i e d or i n s ome cases a ba ndo ne d ent i r el y. Ou r at t empt s at
exec ut i on s e nd us s c ur r yi ng ba c k t o t he dr a wi ng boar d t o de v i s e a n e w pl an. Wi t h
l uck, we wi l l ha v e l e a r ne d e no ug h f rom our di sast rous at t empt t o e x e c ut e t he ol d
pl an t hat our n e w pl an wi l l ha v e a bet t er c ha nc e of s uc c es s .
Ex e c ut i ng t he s ol ut i on pr ov i de s us wi t h a v e r y v a l ua bl e c he c k on t he a de qua c y
of our pl ans . So me t i me s st udent s wi l l l ook at t he pr obl e ms at t he e nd of a chapt er
and de c i de t hat s i nc e t he y k no w h o w t o s ol ve t he m, t he y ne e dn' t bot her wi t h t he
dr udg e r y of act ual l y e x e c ut i ng t he sol ut i ons. Some t i me s t he s t udent s are ri ght , b ut
s ome t i me s t he y mi s s an e x c e l l e nt oppor t uni t y t o di s c ov e r t hat t he y we r e wr ong .
EVALUATING THE SOLUTI ON
Ho w do we k n o w wh e n we ha v e got t en t he r i ght a ns we r t o a pr o b l e m? I f we
are r us hed, we ma y do l i t t l e mor e t han gues s t hat wha t we ha v e looks l i ke an
ans wer . T h e pr o bl e m sai d " S o l v e for X, " and he r e we ha v e X on one si de and
e v e r y t hi ng e l s e on t he ot her si de, s o that' s t he ans wer .
Thi s qui c k g l a nc e at t he a ns we r t o s e e i f i t has t he gener al s hape of a sol ut i on
ma y be t he be s t we c an do wh e n we are r us hed, but i t c an har dl y be v i e we d a s a n
a de qua t e eval uat i on. I f a dr uggi s t we r e we i g h i n g out a me di c a t i on for us , we wo ul d
not onl y wa nt hi m t o c he c k car ef ul l y t o s e e t hat hi s me a s ur e d quant i t i es corre-
s ponde d t o t he quant i t i es i n t he pr es cr i pt i on. We mi g ht e v e n wa nt hi m t o be sure
t hat t he pr es cr i pt i on he i s us i ng i s t he one wi t h our na me on i t!
T h e cri t i cal que s t i on i n eval uat i on i s t hi s: " Do e s t he a ns we r I pr opos e me e t al l
of t he goal s and c ondi t i ons set by t he p r o b l e m? " Th u s , after t he effort of f i ndi ng a
sol ut i on, we mus t t ur n our at t ent i on ba c k t o t he pr o bl e m s t at ement and c he c k
car ef ul l y t o be sure our s ol ut i on sati sf i es it.
I n e as y pr obl e ms , we ma y be t e mpt e d st r ongl y t o s ki p eval uat i on be c a us e t he
Search 47
probabi l i t y of an error s e e ms smal l . I n s ome cases t hi s can be cost l y. Thi s can be
s hown by t he f ol l owi ng pr obl e ms f rom Wh i mb e y and L o c h h e a d (1980). Sol v e t he m
bef ore pr oc e e di ng.
1. There are 3 separate, equal-size boxes, and inside each box there are 2 separate
small boxes, and inside each of the small boxes there are 4 even smaller boxes.
How many boxes are there altogether?
a. 24 b. 13 c. 21 d. 33 e. some other number
2. Ten full crates of walnuts wei gh 410 lb., whil e an empty crate weighs 10 lb. How
much do the walnuts alone wei gh?
a. 400 lb. b. 390 lb. c. 310 lb. d. 320 lb. e. 420 lb.
3. Three empty cereal boxes wei gh 9 ozs. and each box holds 11 ozs. of cereal. How
much do 2 full boxes of cereal wei gh together?
a. 20 ozs. b. 40 ozs. c. 14 ozs. d. 28 ozs. e. 15 ozs.
4. Cross out the letter after the letter in the word seldom whi ch is in the same
position in the word as it is in the alphabet.
5. In how many days of the week does the third letter of the day's name immediately
follow the first letter of the day's name in the alphabet?
a. 1 b. 2 c. 3 d. 3 e. 5
Whi l e t hes e pr obl e ms are not di f f i cul t , i t i s eas y t o ma k e mi s t akes whi l e s ol vi ng
t hem, and t he mi s t akes are r eveal i ng. Wh i mb e y and L o c h h e a d (1980) poi nt out t he
f ol l owi ng c o mmo n errors:
I n pr obl e m 4, ma ny pe o pl e cross out t he " d " rat her t han t he " o " i n " s e l d o m. "
One can i magi ne t hat t hes e pe o pl e ha v e b e c o me s o i nv o l v e d i n t he pr oc es s es of
f i ndi ng t he l et t er wi t h t he s ame pos i t i on i n t he a l pha be t as i n t he wo r d t hat t he y
forget that t hei r task i s t o cross out t he l et t er after it. Ev al uat i on c oul d ha v e
r eveal ed t he error.
I n pr obl e m 2, a f r equent error i s t o a ns we r 400 pounds . T h e di f f i cul t y appear s
t o l i e i n r epr es ent i ng t he pr o bl e m i nc o r r e c t l y t ha t i s, i n f ai l i ng t o not i c e t hat t her e
are 10 1 0- pound boxes . I n eval uat i ng, t hen, it' s i mpor t ant t o e val uat e our
represent at i on as we l l as our sol ut i on.
Whi l e eval uat i on i s usef ul i n s ol vi ng s i mpl e pr obl e ms , i t i s e v e n mor e usef ul
i n sol vi ng c ompl e x ones . Suppo s e we ha v e t he t ask of wr i t i ng an es s ay on " E n -
danger ed S p e c i e s " for an a udi e nc e of 10- year- ol ds. Li k e t he p e o p l e s ol vi ng pr ob-
l em 4, we may b e c o me s o i nv o l v e d i n one part of t he pr obl e m, e. g. , e x poundi ng our
t heori es of ec ol ogy, t hat we c ompl e t e l y f or get t hat we are s uppo s e d t o wr i t e t o a
10-year-ol d audi e nc e . Whi l e wr i t i ng, we mus t c ont i nual l y e val uat e wha t we wr i t e
t o be sure that i t sat i sf i es al l t he r e qui r e me nt s of our wr i t i ng task.
Some pr obl e ms ha v e uni q ue sol ut i ons. We ei t her get t he m r i ght or we get t he m
wrong. Ot her pr obl e ms ha v e a who l e r ange of sol ut i ons, s ome bet t er t han ot her s.
Pr obl ems of thi s sort pos e an e s pe c i al l y di f f i cul t eval uat i on t a s k t h e t ask of det er -
mi ni ng h o w good our sol ut i on i s. I n t he chapt er s on de c i s i on maki ng, we wi l l
di scuss t ec hni ques whi c h c an he l p y ou t o carry out t hi s task.
Somet i mes speci al de c i s i on- maki ng pr oc e dur e s don' t he l p. Wha t we ma y
real l y ne e d i s an out s i de opi ni on. We wi l l di s cus s j us t one pr act i cal case h e r e t h e
case of wri t i ng. Wh e n we wr i t e an essay, we of t en wr i t e a bout t hi ngs of s peci al
i nt erest t o u s t h i n g s we k no w a gr eat deal about . Be c a us e of our s peci al knowl -
edge, i t ma y be v e r y di f f i cul t for us t o put our s e l ve s i n t he pos i t i on of our
a u d i e n c e t o i magi ne wha t i t wo u l d be l i ke not t o unde r s t and t hi ngs we c ons i der
obvi ous.
Re c og ni z i ng t hi s di f f i cul t y we ha v e i n e val uat i ng our o wn wr i t i ng, t he s ens i bl e
t hi ng t o do i s t o s e e k t he he l p of ot hers. As k i ng a f r i end t o r ead al oud wha t we ha v e
wr i t t en and t o t el l us wha t i t me a ns can be a hor r i f yi ng but e xt r e me l y educat i onal
e x pe r i e nc e .
Te s t i ng wr i t i ng out on t he a udi e nc e for whi c h i t i s i nt e nde d i s a v e r y s i mpl e
i dea wi t h obv i ous advant ages , but v e r y f e w p e o p l e do it. Maj or corporat i ons and
gov e r nme nt al a g e nc i e s put a great deal of mo n e y and ef f ort i nt o pr oduc i ng i nst ruc-
t i on manual s and ot her doc ume nt s t o i nf or m t he publ i c , y e t r ar el y c ons i der t est i ng
t hos e do c ume nt s on t he a udi e nc e for whi c h t he y we r e i nt e nde d.
We i nt e nd our wr i t i ng t o be under s t ood. To e v al uat e wh e t h e r or not i t can be
under s t ood, we s houl d r out i nel y t ake i t t o ot hers for cr i t i ci sm.
CONSOLI DATI ON
Th i nk of t he l ast t i me y o u s ol ve d a di f f i cul t pr obl e m. Wh e n t he s ol ut i on f i nal l y
c a me t o y ou, y our st r ongest e mot i on wa s pr obabl y one of gr eat rel i ef . At s uc h t i mes ,
we are l i ke l y t o say t o our s e l v e s , " Wh e w! Tha nk Go d I ' m t hr ough wi t h t hat ! " and
t urn our at t ent i on t o mor e r el axi ng t hought s . I t i s j us t at t hi s poi nt , t hough, t hat we
can gai n mos t f r om t he pr oces s of consolidationthat i s, f rom r ef l ect i ng on t he
pr obl e m- s ol v i ng e x pe r i e nc e we ha v e j us t b e e n t hr ough and l ear ni ng f rom it.
Wh e n we s t r uggl e wi t h a har d pr obl e m, we ma y start off i n a hundr e d wr o ng
di r ect i ons , e xpl or e nume r o us bl i nd al l eys , mi ss cri t i cal c l ue s , and onl y s l owl y c o me
t o r e c og ni z e what ' s i mpor t ant about t he pr obl e m and wha t i s not. As we ma ke
pr ogr es s , we ma y ma k e i mpor t ant c hange s i n our r epr es ent at i on, det ec t f aul t y
as s umpt i ons or di s c ov e r usef ul det our s . Af t er a we e k has pas s e d, or per haps e v e n
after a f e w hour s , we wi l l be abl e t o r e me mb e r ve r y l i t t l e of t hi s c ompl e x pr oces s .
We r e c og ni z e t he pr o bl e m but f or get wh y we f ound i t s o di f f i cul t .
Cons ol i dat i on, t hen, i s be s t do ne wh e n our me mo r y of t he pr obl e m- s ol v i ng
pr oces s i s sti l l v e r y f resh i n our mi nds . Ho w do we do i t ? T h e bas i c ques t i on t o be
a ns we r e d i s, " Wha t can I l ear n f rom t he e x pe r i e nc e of s ol v i ng t hi s p r o b l e m? " T h e
f ol l owi ng mor e s peci f i c ques t i ons ma y he l p us t o a ns we r t hi s one :
1 . Wh y wa s t hi s pr o bl e m di f f i cul t ?
2. Wa s i t har d t o f i nd an appr opr i at e r epr es ent at i on?
3. Was i t di f f i cul t for me t o k e e p my pl ac e i n t he p r o b l e m?
4. Wa s i t har d to f i nd a sol ut i on me t ho d?
5. Wa s t her e a de t our ?
6. Wh y di d I mi ss cri t i cal c l ue s ?
7. Di d I ma k e f al se as s umpt i ons ?
8. Shoul d I ha v e u s e d a di f f erent r epr es ent at i on?
9. Wha t mi s t akes di d I ma k e ?
JO. Di d I ma k e i mpor t ant di s c over i es about r epr es ent at i ons , me t hods , det our s ?
I J. If so, h o w di d I ma k e t h e m?
12. Ar e t her e ot her pr obl e ms si mi l ar t o t hi s o ne ?
13. Co u l d t he y ha v e b e e n s ol v e d i n t he s ame wa y ?
Of c our s e, di f f er ent ques t i ons ma y be appr opr i at e for di f f er ent pr o bl e ms . The
part i cul ar ques t i ons are not i mport ant . Wha t i s i mpor t ant i s t hat y o u r ef l ect on t he
pr obl e m- s ol v i ng pr oc es s , ask ques t i ons about it, and l ear n f rom t he e x pe r i e nc e .
I f y ou ma k e i t a habi t t o cons ol i dat e i mme di a t e l y after pr o bl e m sol ut i on, y ou
can t ake adv ant age of a we a l t h of i nf or mat i on whi c h wo u l d ot he r wi s e be l ost t o y ou.
THREE.
PROTOCOL ANALYSIS
In thi s c hapt er we i nt r oduc e t he t e c hni que of protocol analysiscognitive
ps yc hol ogy' s mos t powe r f ul t ool for de s c r i bi ng ps y c hol ogi c al pr oc es s es . Fi rst , we
wi l l a ns we r t he que s t i on, " Wha t i s a pr ot oc ol ? " T h e n we wi l l wo r k t hr ough s ever al
exampl es t o s ho w h o w pr ot ocol s ma y be anal y z e d.
WHAT IS A PROTOCOL?
A pr ot ocol i s a des c r i pt i on of t he act i vi t i es, or der ed i n t i me , i n whi c h a s ubj ect
engages whi l e pe r f or mi ng a task.
A pr ot ocol , t he n, i s a des c r i pt i on, but not e v e r y des c r i pt i on of a t ask per f or m-
ance i s a pr ot ocol . Of t e n we de s c r i be tasks me nt i oni ng onl y t hei r out c ome s or goal s.
We may say, for e x a mpl e , " My Gr e a t Da ne , Spot , pe r s ua de d me t o g i v e hi m hi s
s upper . " Thi s des c r i pt i on t el l s us t hat t he do g di d one or mor e t hi ngs t o get f ood,
but i t does n' t say wha t t hes e t hi ngs we r e or i n wha t or der t he y occur r ed. T h e
descri pt i on, t her ef or e, i s not a pr ot ocol . T h e des c r i pt i on b e l o w i s a pr ot ocol ,
howe v e r .
Exper i ment er : [ seat ed at di nne r t abl e cut t i ng i nt o hi s st eak]
Spot : [ seat ed di r ec t i y b e hi nd t he e xpe r i me nt e r , hi s c hi n r es t i ng on t he
e xpe r i me nt e r ' s s houl der . Spot wa t c he s i nt ent l y as t he st eak i s b e i ng
c u t ]
Exp: [ s kewer s a l ar ge pi e c e of st eak wi t h hi s fork]
Spot : [tail wa g s , s t omach r umbl e s omi nous l y]
Exp: [ begi ns t o rai se f ork t o mout h]
Spot : [ pl aces p a w on exper i ment er ' s arm and l ooks i nt ent l y i nt o exper i -
ment er ' s eyes ]
Ex p: " S p o t ! "
Spot : [ r emoves pa w, c ont i nues t o wa t c h i nt ent l y]
Spot : [drool s i nt o exper i ment er ' s shi rt pocket ]
Exp: [ abandons o wn di nne r and f eeds dog]
Thi s i s a pr ot ocol b e c a us e i t l i sts Spot ' s act i vi t i es and t he or der i n wh i c h t he y
occurred. I n t he s ame wa y , wh e n we c ol l ec t pr ot ocol s of pe o pl e s ol v i ng pr obl e ms ,
we are not j ust i nt er es t ed i n t he ans we r s t he y gi v e us , but , mor e i mpor t andy, i n t he
s e que nc e of t hi ngs t hey do t o get t hose ans wer s . T h e y do t hi ngs s uc h as dr aw
di agrams, make c omput at i ons , and ask q u e s t i o n s i n a par t i cul ar order.
We wi l l de s c r i be t hr ee ki nds of pr ot ocol s he r e : motor pr ot ocol s , eye movement
pr ot ocol s , and verbal pr ot ocol s . Al l t hr ee ki nds ha v e pr o v e d t o be v e r y usef ul for
de s c r i bi ng ps y c hol og i c a l pr oc e s s e s , but i n thi s c hapt er our mai n i nt er est wi l l be i n
t he t hi rd k i n d v e r b a l pr ot ocol s.
MOTOR PROTOCOLS
To obt ai n mot or pr ot ocol s , we obs e r v e t he obv i ous phys i c al act i vi t i es of our
s ubj e c t s a c t i v i t i e s s uc h a s wa l ki ng, pi c ki ng t hi ngs up, and r eac hi ng. T h e " S p o t "
pr ot ocol wa s l ar gel y a mot or pr ot ocol . T h e mot or pr ot ocol b e l o w, c ol l ec t ed by
Kohl e r ( 1 925, p. 174) , de s c r i be s t he act i vi t i es of Sul t an, an ape , as he s ol v e d a s i mpl e
pr obl e m.
(March 26th): Sultan is squatting at the bars, but cannot reach the fruit, which
lies outside, by means of his only available short stick. A longer stick is deposited
outside the bars, about two metres on one side of the objective, and parallel with the
grating. It can not be grasped with the hand, but it can be pul l ed within reach by
means of the small stick (see Figure 1). Sultan tries to reach the fruit with the smaller
of the two sticks. Not succeeding, he tears at a piece of wire that projects from die
netting of his cage, but that, too, is in vain. Then he gazes about him; (there are
always in the course of these tests some long pauses, during which the animals
scrutinize the whol e visible area). He suddenly picks up the little stick once more,
goes up to the bars directly opposite to the long stick, scratches it towards him with
the 'auxiliary,' seizes it, and goes with it to the point opposite the objective, which ,
he secures. From the moment that his eyes fall upon the long stick, his procedure
forms one consecutive whole, without hiatus
Kohl e r us e d t he obs er vat i on t hat t he sol ut i on oc c ur r e d s udde nl y t o ar gue t hat
Sul t an' s s ol ut i on pr oc es s i nv ol v e d " i ns i ght . " Fur t her , Kohl e r us e d t he obs er vat i on
t hat t he sol ut i on ran off s moot hl y and c ont i nuous l y t o ar gue t hat Sul t an " k n e w wha t
he was d o i n g " f rom t he mo me n t of i nsi ght .
Mot or pr ot ocol s are e s pe c i a l l y v a l ua bl e for us e wi t h s ubj ect s wh o ha v e l i mi t ed
l a ngua ge a bi l i t i e s f o r e x a mpl e , c hi l dr en and ani mal s .
Protocol Analysis 53
EYE-MOVEMENT PROTOCOLS
An e y e - mo v e me n t pr ot ocol i s a r ec or d of t he pl ac e s i n a s c e ne whe r e t he
subj ect s fi x t hei r gaz e as t he y per f or m a task. I n s o me c as es , we c an obt ai n suf-
f i ci ent l y ac c ur at e i nf or mat i on about e y e mo v e me nt s j us t by l ooki ng at t he s ubj ect s ,
as Fa nt z ( 1 961 ) has done , t o s ee i f t he y are l ooki ng l ef t or ri ght . I n ot her cas es , we
mus t us e s ophi s t i cat ed e q ui pme nt s uc h as an e y e - mo v e me nt c ame r a ( Mac kwor t h
and Tho ma s , 1962) t o obt ai n pr ec i s e e y e pos i t i ons .
Fi g ur e 2 s hows t he e y e mo v e me nt s of an exper t c he s s pl a y e r dur i ng t he first
f i ve s ec onds of e x a mi ni ng t he c hes s pos i t i on s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 3 ( Ti c homi r ov and
Poz nyans kaya, 1966). Us i ng t hes e dat a, Si mon and Bar e nf e l d ( 1969) ar gue d t hat t he
c hes s exper t was e x a mi ni ng at t ack- and- def ens e r el at i ons hi ps a mong t he pi e c e s .
Ey e - mo v e me nt pr ot ocol s ha v e al so b e e n us e d t o s t udy tasks s uc h as r eadi ng
( Car pent er and Just, 1978) and s ol vi ng numb e r puz z l e s (Wi ni kof f , 1966).
VERBAL PROTOCOLS
I n a ver bal , or " t hi nk i ng a l o ud" pr ot ocol , subj ect s are as ke d t o say al oud ever y-
t hi ng t hey t hi nk whi l e per f or mi ng t he task. T h e y are as ke d t o say e v e r y t hi ng t hat
occurs t o t he m, no mat t er h o w t ri vi al i t ma y s e e m. E v e n wi t h s uc h expl i c i t i nst ruc-
t i ons, ho we v e r , subj ect s ma y f orget and fall s i l e n t c o mp l e t e l y abs or be d i n t he
task. At s uc h t i mes t he e x pe r i me nt e r wi l l say, " Re me mb e r , t el l me e v e r y t hi ng y o u
are t hi nki ng. "
54
Figure 2. Record of Eye Movement s for the First Five Seconds Reprinted from Soviet
Psychology, Vol . 5, 1966, by permission of the publisher, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., Whi te Plains,
NY 10603.
As e x a mpl e s we wi l l s how t wo ver bal pr ot ocol s , i n wh i c h subj ect s s ol ve wat er -
j u g pr obl e ms . T h e s e r equi r e t hat t he s ubj ect me a s ur e out a s pec i f i ed quant i t y of
wa t e r us i ng t hr ee j ug s , as s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 4.
Protocol Anal ysi s
55
On e t ypi cal wat er - j ug pr o bl e m r equi r es t he s ubj ect t o me a s ur e out 31 quart s
wh e n Jug A wi l l hol d 20 quar t s; J u g B , 59 quart s; and Jug C, 4 quart s. T h e pr obl e m
can be s ol ved i n f our st eps as f ol l ows :
1. Fi l l J u g B .
2. Fi l l Jug A f rom Jug B, l e a v i ng 39 quart s i n B.
3. Fi l l Jug C f rom B, l e a v i ng 35 quart s i n B.
4. Empt y C and fill i t agai n f rom B, l e a v i ng t he de s i r e d quant i t y, 31 quart s, i n B.
Wh e n y o u anal y z e a pr ot ocol i t i s hel pf ul t o ha v e al r eady do ne t he task yoursel f .
So, bef or e y ou be g i n t o anal y z e Pr ot ocol I , try t o s ol ve t hi s pr obl e m:
Measure 100 qts. gi ven Jug A, holding 21 qts.; Jug B, holding 127 qts; and Jug C,
3 qts.
Wh e n y o u have f ound t he sol ut i on, s ol ve t he pr o b l e m i n Pr ot ocol I , i f y o u have
not al r eady done so.
PROTOCOL I
Problem: Gi v e n Jug A, whi c h cont ai ns 9 qt s. ; Jug B, 42 qt s. ; and Jug C, 6
qt s. , me a s ur e out exac t l y 21 qt s.
Subj = Subj ec t Ex p = Ex pe r i me nt e r
Subj : (1) " Uh , t he fi rst t hi ng t hat ' s appar ent i s hal f of B i s, i s t he uh, t he
(2) amount t hat y o u wa nt . "
Ex p : (3) " Uh h u h . "
Subj : (4) " Um, y o u can' t get 21 f rom j us t mul t i pl y i ng up A or C.
(5) You ge t 18 and 18 r e s pe c t i ve l y, that' s as c l os e as y o u c an get ,
(6) I gues s . Um, so I' ll try t o t hi nk of t he di f f er ent c ombi nat i ons t hat
(7) mi g h t . . . c o me up wi t h a s u r p l u s . . . or def i ci t of t he 21 quart s . . .
and
(8) ni ne and si x are, 1 5 . . . i f y o u t ook t wo ni nes and t wo si xes, y ou' d
ha v e 30 whi c h
(9) wo u l d l e a v e y o u . . . and pour t he m i nt o t he 42 cont ai ner , y ou' d
ha v e a,
(10) an o pe n s pac e of a, 12, whi c h me ans not hi ng. Ho w a b o u t . . .
s e e . . . n o w I ' m
( 1 1 ) t r yi ng t o t hi nk of h o w c l os e t o 42 y ou c an ge t wi t h a ni ne and t he
si x quant i t i es .
(12) Yo u c an g e t . . . I f orget t he s e v e n t abl e. It' s b e e n a l ong t i me
s i nc e I ' ve
Protocol Anal ysi s 57
(13) had t o mul t i pl y or anyt hi ng s o you' l l ha v e t o g i v e me s ome t i me.
Um,
(14) ni ne t i mes f i ve i s 4 5 . . . hm, six t i mes s e v e n i s 4 2 , 1 t hi nk. I s that
r i ght ? "
Ex p: (15) " Uh huh. "
Subj : (16) " OK, s o y o u can, u h . . . fill B wi t h C, e v e n l y . . . "
Ex p: (17) " Yo u c o u l d . . . "
Subj : (18) " S o , . . . i f y o u we r e t o t a k e . . . 3 6 . . . hm, oh, uh, si x t i mes f our i s
2 4 . . . and i f y ou, uh,
(19) What I ' m t r yi ng t o ge t ri d of i s, i s, t hr ee quart s t h e r e . . . "
Ex p: (20) " Go o d . "
Subj : (21) " S o i f y o u we r e t o, u m. . . still 24. I , I wa s t r yi ng t o t hi nk pos -
si bl y,
(22) s ome wa y , o f . . . t he di f f er ence b e t we e n t he si x and t he ni ne i s
t hr ee quart s. I
(23) wa s t r yi ng t o t hi nk o f . . . a wa y t o u h . . . oh, h o w a b o u t . . . y o u put
t he t hr e e , si x
(24) quar t quant i t y i nt o t he 42 bot t l e, wh i c h i s 18, t he n t he run off,
f rom
(25) pour i ng a ni ne i nt o a si x whi c h i s t hr ee and 18 i s 2 1 . "
Ex p: (26) " Go o d . "
AN EXAMPLE OF PROTOCOL ANALYSIS
No w, l et ' s e x a mi ne Pr ot ocol I i n det ai l and try t o ma k e s ome r eas onabl e
gues s es about wha t t he s ubj ect i s doi ng.
I n hi s first s e nt e nc e , t he s ubj ect ment i ons s ome t hi ng t hat appear s t o be i rrel e-
vant t o s ol vi ng t he pr obl e m. He ment i ons t he f act t hat t he de s i r e d amount (21
quarts) i s j us t hal f t he quant i t y c ont ai ned i n Jug B. No w, di vi s i on i s a ve r y usef ul
oper at i on i n ma ny al ge br a pr obl e ms . I n t hi s pr obl e m, i f we c oul d di v i de Jug B i n
half, t he pr o b l e m wo u l d be s ol ved. But al as! Th e r e i s no di vi s i on oper at i on i n
wat er- j ug pr obl e ms . Al l we can do i s add and subt ract t he quant i t i es i n Jugs A, B,
and C. Why , t he n, doe s t he s ubj ect not i ce t hat t he de s i r e d quant i t y i s hal f of B ? T h e
si mpl est a ns we r s e e ms t o be t hat he i s c onf us i ng wat er - j ug pr obl e ms ( per haps
be c a us e he i sn' t t hor oughl y f ami l i ar wi t h t hem) wi t h t he mor e gener al cl ass of
al gebr a pr obl e ms . I f t hi s a ns we r i s correct , we wo u l d e x pe c t t hat t he s ubj ect wo u l d
stop not i ci ng di vi s i on r el at i ons as he gai ns mor e e x pe r i e nc e wi t h wat er - j ug pr ob-
l ems . I n fact, t hat i s wha t ha ppe ne d.
I n l i ne 3, t he e x pe r i me nt e r doe s j us t wha t t he e x pe r i me nt e r i s s uppos e d t o
d o t h a t i s, he i s nonc ommi t al . I n gener al , t he e x pe r i me nt e r s houl d a ns we r onl y
essent i al ques t i ons and r e mi nd t he s ubj ect t o k e e p t al ki ng.
Fr om l i nes 4 and 5, we c an gues s t hat t he s ubj ect has s uc c e s s i v e l y a dde d ni nes
t o get ni ne, 18, 2 7 . . . and si xes t o ge t si x, 1 2, 18, 2 4 . . . and r e a l i z e d t hat nei t her
s e que nc e i nc l ude s 21 . Fr o m l i nes 6 t hr ough 10, we c an s e e t hat t he s ubj ect be g i ns
t o cons i der c ombi nat i ons of ni nes and si xes whi c h ma y be a d d e d t oget her t o obt ai n
i nt er est i ng s ums , or s ubt r act ed f rom t he 42- quar t c ont ai ner t o obt ai n i nt er est i ng
di f f er ences. Whi l e c ons i de r i ng s ums , t he s ubj ect fai l s t o not i c e t hat t he s um 6 + 6
+ 9 s ol ves t he pr obl e m.
I n l i nes 1 1 t hr ough 1 4, t he s ubj ect t ri es t o f i nd out i f 42 quart s can be obt ai ned
by addi ng ni nes and si xes. T h e a ns we r i s pos i t i ve, but i t doe s n' t he l p t he subj ect
t o f i nd a sol ut i on. It appear s t o be a " bl i nd al l e y . " In t hi s s ect i on, t he subj ect
i ndi cat es s ever al t i mes t hat he doe s n' t f eel c onf i dent about mul t i pl i cat i on.
I n l i nes 1 5 and 1 7, t he e x pe r i me nt e r pr ov i de s t he s ubj ect wi t h a smal l amount
of i nf ormat i on by c onf i r mi ng hi s une a s y s us pi c i on t hat si x t i mes s e v e n e qual s 42.
On occas i on, t he e x pe r i me nt e r mus t de c i de whe t he r or not t o pr ovi de i nf or mat i on
t he s ubj ect r eques t s . I n t hi s cas e, s i nce t he e x pe r i me nt e r wa s r eal l y i nt er es t ed i n
wat er j u g pr obl e ms rat her t han i n ar i t hmet i c, he d e c i d e d t o s uppl y an ar i t hmet i c
fact.
I n l i nes 18 and 1 9, t he s ubj ec t r eal i z es t hat i f he had a wa y t o subt ract t hr ee
quart s f rom 24 quart s, he c oul d s ol ve t he pr obl e m. I n l i ne 20 t he e xpe r i me nt e r
appear s t o s l i p by pr ov i di ng t he s ubj ect wi t h appr oval , wh e n he wo u l d bet t er have
r e ma i ne d si l ent . I n l i ne 2 1 , t he s ubj ect i s sti l l t hi nki ng of wo r k i ng f rom 24 quart s.
I n l i ne 22, he di s c over s a wa y t o a dd (rather t han subt ract ) t hr ee quart s by pour i ng
A i nt o C and c at c hi ng t he over f l ow. I n l i nes 23 and 24, he de c i de s t o wo r k f rom 18
quart s rat her t han 24 quart s and t he n (on l i ne 25) i mme di a t e l y s ol ves t he pr obl e m.
No w, l et ' s st and bac k f rom t he det ai l s of t he pr ot ocol t o s e e i f we can charac-
t er i z e t he wh o l e pr obl e m- s ol v i ng pr oc es s t hat t he s ubj ect we n t t hr ough. Bef or e
r e adi ng f urt her, r e v i e w t he di s c us s i on of t he prot ocol and t hen t ry t o c har ac t er i z e
t he pr obl e m- s ol v i ng pr oc es s yoursel f .
On e wa y t o c har ac t er i z e t he pr obl e m- s ol v i ng pr oces s i s t o de s c r i be i t as a
s ear ch for an oper at or or a c ombi nat i on of operat ors t o s ol ve t he pr obl e m. (In t hi s
cas e, t he oper at or s ar e ar i t hmet i c pr oc e dur e s s uc h as di vi s i on and subt ract i on) . I n
Fi g ur e 5, wh e r e we ha v e di a g r a mme d t hi s s ear ch pr oc e s s , we c an s e e t hat s ear ch
pr oc e e ds , ge ne r al l y , f rom s i mpl e t o c o mp l e x t h a t i s, f rom s i ngl e operat ors t o
c ompl e x c ombi nat i ons of operat ors.
Up unt i l l i ne 18, t he subj ect ' s s ear c h for a s ol ut i on c oul d ha v e b e e n g ui de d by
t he pr o bl e m st at ement . Tha t i s, by r e adi ng t he pr o bl e m s t at ement , t he s ubj ect c oul d
ha v e d e c i d e d t hat wha t wa s n e e d e d t o s ol ve t he pr obl e m wa s s o me c ombi nat i on of
al gebr ai c operat ors. Up t o l i ne 1 8, he c oul d s i mpl y be t r yi ng one c ombi nat i on after
anot her . We cal l t hi s " f or war d s e a r c h " a s ear ch s ug g e s t e d by t he pr obl e m state-
me nt al one. I n l i nes 1 8 a nd 1 9, ho we v e r , t he s ubj ect f or mul at es a goal on t he basi s
Protocol Anal ysi s
59
of hi s di f f i cul t i es i n s ol v i ng t he pr obl e m. He not es t hat he has n' t b e e n abl e t o get
cl oser t o t he a ns we r t han t hr ee quart s and at t empt s t o f i nd an oper at or t hat wi l l
subt ract t hr ee quart s. Thi s goal de pe nds not j us t on t he pr o bl e m s t at ement but al so
on t he subj ect ' s e x pe r i e nc e i n t r yi ng t o s ol ve t he p r o b l e mt h a t i s, on hi s di s t ance
f rom t he goal . I t i s a f orm of me ans - e nds anal ys i s i n wh i c h t he s ubj ect at t empt s t o
f i nd a me a ns t o t he e nd of r e duc i ng hi s di s t anc e f rom t he goal .
T h e wh o l e sol ut i on pr oc es s t hen consi st s of
1 . An i ni t i al phas e of f or war d s ear ch t hr ough an i nc r e as i ngl y c o mpl e x s e q u e nc e of
operat ors, f ol l owe d by
2. A phas e of means - ends anal ysi s i n whi c h t he s ubj ect s uc c e e ds i n f i ndi ng a
sol ut i on.
I n anal yz i ng a pr ot ocol , we at t empt t o de s c r i be t he ps y c hol og i c a l pr oc e s s e s t hat
a subj ect us es t o per f or m a task. To do t hi s, i t i s us ef ul t o be f ami l i ar bot h wi t h t he
pr oper t i es of t he t ask and wi t h t he pr o b l e m sol ver ' s c o mp o ne nt ps y c hol ogi c al
pr oces s es . I n a na l y z i ng t he wat er - j ug pr ot ocol a bov e , k n o wi n g t hat t he t ask re-
qui r ed al gebr ai c operat ors and t hat huma n pr o bl e m sol ver s of t en us e pr oc es s es of
f orward s ear ch and me a ns - e nds anal ysi s h e l p e d us t o r e c og ni z e h o w t he s ubj ect had
or gani z ed t hes e pr oc e s s e s i n hi s s ear ch for a sol ut i on. I n t he s a me wa y , wh e n we
anal yz e ot her pr ot ocol s , k n o wl e d g e of ot her tasks and of ot her ps y c hol ogi c al pr op-
ert i es wi l l be us ef ul . Thi s i s not t o say t hat we mus t al r eady unde r s t and a per f or m-
anc e bef or e we c an a na l y z e it. I t i s j us t t hat wh e n we do unde r s t and s ome t hi ngs
about t he pe r f or manc e , we can us e t he m v e r y pr of i t abl y t o l ear n ot her t hi ngs.
I n anal yz i ng Pr ot ocol I I , k n o wl e d g e of t he ps y c hol ogi c a l p h e n o me n o n of set i s
ver y hel pf ul .
Protocol II
Problem: Gi v e n Jug A, wh i c h cont ai ns 23 qt s. , Jug B, 49 qt s. , and Jug C, 3
qt s. , me as ur e out exact l y 20 qt s.
Subj : (1) " Uh , . . . I ' m a ddi ng and subt r act i ng he r e , "
Ex p: (2) " S a y wha t you' r e addi ng and s ubt r ac t i ng. "
Subj : (3) " O. K. We l l , 2 3 f rom 4 9 . . . i s . . . u h . . . r e mi nds me wh e n
(4) we k e e p scor e wh e n we pl ay car ds. 2 6 . . . oh, OK. Er i t
(5) wo u l d b e eas y e noug h. Yo u t a k e . . . u m. . . OK. Ho w d o we
(6) ge t t hi s i nt o wat e r and j ug s n o w ? . . . b e c a us e y ou c oul d t ake a . . .
(7) wh i c h i s 23, and pour i t i nt o C wh i c h i s t hr ee, t her e we go,
(8) pour i t i nt o C wh i c h i s t hr ee, and 20 wo u l d be wha t wo u l d g o . . .
(9) ri ght i nt o B. "
Ex p: (10) " Go o d . "
T h e pr obl e m us e d i n t hi s pr ot ocol can be s ol v e d i n ei t her of t wo wa y s . I t can be
s ol ved by t he pr oc e dur e B A 2C, or i t can be s ol v e d by t he s i mpl e r pr oc e dur e :
A C. Just bef or e s ol v i ng t hi s pr obl e m, t he s ubj ect wo r k e d a s er i es of si x pr obl e ms ,
al l of whi c h r equi r ed t he pr oc e dur e B A 2C for sol ut i on. As a resul t , we wo u l d
expec t t he s ubj ect to s how a set to us e t he B - A - 2C pr oc e dur e . As l i nes 6 t hr ough
9 s how, t he s ubj ect act ual l y s ol ves t he pr o bl e m by t he A C pr oc e dur e . Ho w-
ever , i f we l ook bac k t o l i nes 3 and 4, we s ee t hat t he subj ect ' s first pr obl e m-
sol vi ng at t empt wa s t o subt ract A f rom B. Thi s s ugges t s t hat he st art ed t o us e t he
B A 2C pr oc e dur e e v e n t hough he di dn' t carry i t t hr ough. Cl e ar l y , anal yz i ng
t he prot ocol gi ve s us e v i d e nc e about t he subj ect ' s s ol ut i on pr oc es s t hat we can' t get
j ust by l ooki ng at t he ans wer .
60
AGE PROBLEMS
T h e pr ot ocol of an age pr obl e m i l l ust rat es agai n t he us ef ul nes s of k n o wl e d g e
of task de ma nds and c o mpo ne nt ps y c hol ogi c al pr oc es s es for unde r s t andi ng huma n
per f or manc e. As i n ma ny pr obl e ms , part of t he di f f i cul t y of age pr obl e ms l i es i n
k e e p i ng t rack of r e l e v a nt i nf or mat i on. Unl e s s pr o bl e m s ol ver s are ve r y caref ul i n
l a be l i ng i nf or mat i on, t he y are l i kel y t o conf us e a per s on' s a g e at one t i me wi t h t he
s ame per s on' s a g e at a di f f erent t i me. For e x a mpl e , pr o b l e m s ol ver s wh o have onl y
a s i ngl e l abel wh i c h t hey us e bot h for " Ma r y ' s age n o w" and " Ma r y ' s age
t h e n " l e t us say " Ma r y " or " M" a r e ve r y l i ke l y t o c onf us e Mar y ' s age no w wi t h
Mar y' s age t hen. Thi s i s j us t wha t ha ppe ns i n t hi s a g e - pr obl e m pr ot ocol .
Protocol III
Problem: John i s n o w t wi c e as ol d as he wa s wh e n Mar y wa s 3 year s ol der
t han he i s now, but he i s onl y hal f as ol d as Mar y i s at pr es ent . No w h o w
ol d are t he y ?
Subj :
(1
(2.
(3.
(4:
Ex p: (5;
Subj : (6
(7
(s;
(9
( 10
( 1 1
( 1 2
( 1 3
( 14
(is;
(ie;
Ex p: ( 1 7
Subj : ( 18
Ex p: ( 1 9
Subj : (20
(2i ;
(22
(23
" Ur n, um, John i s no w t wi c e as ol d as he wa s wh e n Mar y wa s
t hr ee year s ol der t han he i s now. But he i s onl y hal f as ol d as
Ma r y
At pr es ent . Um, um, t hr ee year s ol der i s t he onl y numbe r sup-
pl i e d,
so I ' m goi ng t o start wor ki ng f rom t her e. I g ue s s , and u h , . . . "
" Wha t are y ou t hi nk i ng ? "
" I get abs ol ut el y not hi ng f rom t hose ques t i ons .
"I am dr a wi ng a bl ank at t he mome nt , um, I am t r yi ng t o sort out
John
and Mar y, I g ue s s , he r e , be c a us e , t he wor ds don' t l e nd t hems el -
v e s to
be de c i phe r e d i nt o, l i ke, t wo neat l i t t l e John and Mar y c ol umns ,
um,
and i t' s hard. OK. John i s t wi c e as o l d . . . n o w . . . t han wh e n he
was wh e n
Ma r y wa s t hr ee year s ol der t han hi m . . . OH wo w! Um, but he i s
onl y hal f
as ol d as Mar y at p r e s e n t . . . so, um, John e qual s , um, no w I ' m
t r yi ng
t o t hi nk of a . . . I don' t k no w wh y i t j us t oc c ur r ed t o me that
ma y b e i f
I p l u g g e d John and Mar y and t he i nf or mat i on i nt o l i t t l e, l i t t l e,
y o u
k no w, John equal s Mar y pl us t hr ee, or s ome t hi ng l i ke that, y o u
k no w,
l i t t l e X, Y ? "
" Uh Hu h . "
" I don' t k n o w wha t y o u cal l t he m. "
" Eq u a t i o n s . "
" Eq ua t i o ns . OK. Got t o war n y ou, I f l unked mat h i n si xth gr ade.
So um,
u m, A h . . . John i s no w t wi c e as ol d as he wa s wh e n Mar y was
t hr ee year s
ol der t han he i s n o w . . . O K , s o John e q u a l s . . . u m, Mar y and
t hr ee . . . , whi c h
doe s n' t do me any good, and he i s onl y hal f as ol d as Mar y at
pr es ent ,
Protocol Anal ysi s 6 7
(24) so I ha v e t o k no w h o w muc h John i s wor t h first, her e, and,
u h , . . . Mar y i s
(25) t hr ee year s ol der t han he i s . . . , and hal f as ol d as Mar y at pr es-
ent . Um,
(26) Ma r y i s t hr ee year s ol der t han he i s no w, but he i s onl y hal f as
ol d as
(27) Mar y at p r e s e n t . . . s o he has t o be u m. . . Ma r y i s t hr ee year s
ol der t han
(28) he i s n o w . . . and Mar y i s t wi c e hi s age. T h e n he' s got t o be t hr ee
years
(29) ol d. "
Ex p: (30) " Al l r i ght . "
ANALYSIS OF THE PROBLEM
To s ol ve thi s pr obl e m, i t i s ne c e s s ar y t o di s t i ngui s h f our qua nt i t i e s J ohn' s age
no w (JN), John' s age t hen (JT), Mar y' s age no w ( MN) , and Mar y' s age t hen ( MT) .
Thr e e equat i ons can be de r i v e d f rom t he pr obl e m s t at ement .
JN = 2 JT [John i s t wi c e as ol d no w as he was t hen. ]
MT = JN + 3 [ Mary t hen wa s t hr ee year s ol der t han John i s now. ]
JN = V2 MN [John no w i s hal f as ol d as Mar y now. ]
I n addi t i on, b e c a us e we k no w t hat John and Mar y age at t he s ame rat e, we can
der i ve a f ourt h e quat i on:
JN JT = MN MT [ The di f f er ence b e t we e n John' s age no w and John' s
age t hen i s t he s ame as t he di f f er ence b e t we e n
Mar y' s age no w and Mar y' s age t hen. ]
Ar me d wi t h t hes e e quat i ons , t hos e ade pt at al gebr a can de t e r mi ne that John' s age
no w i s six and Mar y' s age no w i s 12.
No w, l et ' s s ee wha t our s ubj ect has done . Fr o m l i nes 1 5 t hr ough 29, she
f r equent l y c onf us es John' s and Mar y' s ages no w wi t h John' s and Mar y' s ages t hen.
I n fact, no whe r e i n t he pr ot ocol i s t her e any e v i d e nc e t hat she e v e r makes t he
now- t hen di s t i nct i on. I n l i nes 27 and 28, s he der i ves t wo equat i ons :
Mar y = John + 3, and
Mar y = 2 x John
Th e s ec ond one i s cor r ect , but t he first i s not be c a us e i t c onf us es Mar y' s age t he n
wi t h Mar y' s age now. T h e s ubj ect t hen s ol ves t hes e equat i ons and c onc l ude s ,
i ncorrect l y, t hat John' s age n o w i s t hr ee.
PROTOCOL ANALYSIS APPLIED TO WRI TI NG
Th e first 27 l i nes of a wr i t i ng pr ot ocol , about 10 pe r c e nt of t he ful l pr ot ocol , are
repri nt ed her e. T h e wr i t er was a v ol unt e e r wh o k n e w that s he wa s t o e ng a g e i n a
wr i t i ng st udy for about an hour. She k n e w t hat she wo u l d be as ke d t o " t hi nk a l o ud"
as she pr oduc e d a short essay. She di d not k no w t he t opi c, ho we v e r , unt i l s he
arri ved for t he t ape r e c or di ng sessi on.
Protocol IV
Problem: Wr i t e a short es s ay on wh y y o u wr i t e paper s at Ca r ne g i e - Me l l o n
Uni ver si t y.
S: (1) " OK, um, t he i s s ue i s mot i vat i on and t he pr o bl e m of wr i t i ng
paper s . For
(2) me , mot i vat i on he r e at Ca r ne g i e - Me l l o n i s t he a c a de mi c pr es s ur e
and gr ades t hat
(3) are i nv ol v e d, so I' d bet t er put t hat d o w n . . . and gr ades . . . um, t hey
ki nd of
(4) c o mpe l me , that' s r eal l y wha t mot i vat i on i s, um, ki nd of t o i mpel or
start or
(5) a, mo me nt um. ( Pause) OK, I s uppos e f rom t he a c a de mi c pr es s ur e
of t he gr ades ,
(6) I ' m not sure whe t he r , I t hi nk per s onal sat i sf act i on i s i mpor t ant , but
I ' m not
(7) sure wh e t h e r t hat st ems f rom a c a de mi c pr es s ur es and gr ades , or
w h e t h e r I
(8) wo u l d say per s onal sat i sf act i on i s a maj or i s s ue. OK, um. Oh . "
E: (9) " Wha t are y o u t hi nk i ng ? "
S: (10) " I ' m t r yi ng t o t hi nk of t he first s e nt e nc e t o start wi t h. Um, ma y b e
s ome t hi ng
( 1 1 ) l i ke, per s onal sat i sf act i on i s t he maj or mot i vat i ng f orce i n t he wri t -
i ng of my
(12) pape r s and report s. OK, I ' m t r yi ng t o t hi nk o f . . . OK , I wa nt t o
s o me h o w ge t i t i nt o
(13) t he a c a de mi c pr es s ur es now. Um, we l l ma y b e not s o soon. OK. Not
onl y do I ge t
(14) sat i sf act i on f rom my gr ades , but I al so ge t sat i sf act i on i n t ur ni ng i n
s ome t hi ng
(15) t hat i s g ood qual i t y. So, i f I ' m ha ppy wh e n I wr i t e a good paper , i t
r eal l y doe s n' t
(16) mat t er wha t ki nd of gr ade I get ba c k on it, i f I ' m ha ppy wi t h it. So,
um, um,
( 17) l et ' s s e e . Um, wha t are t h e I ' m t hi nki ng of, I ' m t r yi ng t o rel at e
per s onal
(18) sat i sf act i on b e t we e n a c a de mi c pr es s ur e and t he gr ades , but I' m not
r eal l y s ur e
(19) h o w t o do it, h o w t o br a nc h it. I ' m r eal l y ha v i ng a har d t i me get t i ng
st art ed.
(20) We l l , ma y b e I' l l j us t wr i t e a b unc h of i deas d o wn , and ma y b e try
t o c o nne c t t he m after
(21) I f i ni sh. OK. Wh e n I f eel t hat I ' ve wr i t t en a hi g h qual i t y, and I put
i n par en-
(22) t he s e s , pr of es s i onal , paper , um, t o be gr aded, wh e n I s ubmi t it, t he
gr ade i s not
(23) a l wa y s ne c e s s a r y for t he t e ac he r t o ha v e t he s ame. OK, t hat ' s ki nd
Of ;
(24) I' l l c he c k wi t h t hat one. OK, a n d l e t ' s s e e wha t el s e. Um, but
(25) of c our s e , t he r eas on I ' m wr i t i ng t he pa pe r i n t he fi rst pl a c e i s for
t he gr ade ,
(26) or t o r el at e t hat back. Th o s e t wo i deas are v e r y i n t e r l o c k e d
ma y b e t hat ' s not
(27) t he r i ght t e r m. "
Anal ysi s of t he Prot ocol
I n a na l y z i ng t hi s pr ot ocol f r agment , we wi l l cal l at t ent i on t o j us t one cl ass of
pr oc e s s e s wh i c h we c ons i de r e s pe c i a l l y s i g ni f i c a nt unde r s t a ndi ng pr oc es s es .
Wha t we r ef er t o he r e as unde r s t andi ng pr oc es s es are wha t St oehr ( 1967) cal l s
" t hi nki ng , " and Va n Nos t r and ( 1976) de s c r i be s as a " l e a r ni ng pr oc e s s . " Ev i d e nc e
that unde r s t a ndi ng pr oc e s s e s are at wor k may be s e e n i n c ha ng e s i n t he wri t er' s
unde r s t andi ng of t he t opi c as wr i t i ng pr oc e e ds . I n l i nes 1 t hr ough 3, t he wr i t er
i dent i f i es mot i vat i on wi t h gr ades . I n l i nes 6 and 7, s he i nt r oduc es t he i dea of
per s onal sat i sf act i on but i s not at al l sure t hat t hi s i s a s our ce of sat i sf act i on di st i nct
f rom gr ades . In l i nes 8 t hr ough 1 2, per s onal sat i sf act i on i s g i v e n a ve r y i mpor t ant
rol e, but i t i s not cl ear h o w t he wr i t er rel at es i t t o gr ades . I n l i nes 13 t hr ough 1 5, t wo
s our ces of per s onal sat i sf act i on are i dent i f i ed: gr ades and t he pr oduc t i on of hi gh-
qual i t y wor k. A rel at i on b e t we e n t he t wo s our ces of sat i sf act i on i s s pec i f i ed i n l i nes
15 and 16 and agai n i n l i nes 21 t hr ough 23. T h e r el at i on i s t hat i f t he wo r k i s of good
qual i t y, a gr ade i s not ne c e s s ar y for sat i sf act i on. In l i nes 24 and 25, a cont radi ct ory
rel at i on i s n o t e d t h a t i s, t hat gr ades are t he i ni t i al mot i vat or for al l es s ay wr i t i ng.
I n l i nes 26 and 27, t he s e rel at i ons are de s c r i be d as " i nt e r l o c k e d" rat her t han as
cont radi ct ory. T h e cont r adi ct i on b e t we e n t he rel at i ons i s r e c o g ni z e d l at er i n t he
prot ocol . I n l ar ge me a s ur e , t he f i nal essay i s c o nc e r ne d wi t h t he r es ol ut i on of t hi s
conf l i ct.
The Compl et ed Essay
Personal satisfaction is the major motivating force in the writing of my papers
and reports. The emphasis on 4.0's here at Carnegie-Mel l on University causes
grades to become an instinctive motivator for myself. Acquiring good grades does,
in fact, give me personal satisfaction.
The initial motivator in the outset of writing a paper is the fact that a grade will
be attached to it upon completion. I feel that my role as a student requires all of my
efforts to be put forth into course work, whi ch includes the writing of papers.
After I begi n writing a paper, the grade emphasis diminishes and a higher level
of personal satisfaction takes over. When I feel that I've written a high-quality or
professional paper to be submitted for grading, it is not mandatory for the teacher
to have the same opinion. But of course, this somewhat contradicts my earlier
statement that the motivation for writing paper is to achieve the ultimate goal a
good grade.
Thus, the combination of the grade "initiator" and later a higher l evel of per-
sonal satisfaction is what motivates me to write my college papers and reports.
I n t he c our s e of wr i t i ng t he essay, t he subj ect ' s unde r s t a ndi ng of t he t opi c
c hanged r adi cal l y. At first, s he b e l i e v e d her mot i vat i on had a s i ngl e s our ce. By t he
end of t he e s s ay s he r e c o g ni z e d t hat i t had t wo s our c es wh i c h we r e r el at ed i n a
c ompl ex wa y . Wr i t i ng i n t hi s c as e c l ear l y i nv o l v e d unde r s t a ndi ng pr oc e s s e s .
PROTOCOL ANALYSIS, MORE GENERALLY CONSI DERED
As we ha v e s e e n, pr ot ocol anal ysi s can be us e d as an ai d i n unde r s t andi ng a
wi de var i et y of t asks f r om s i mpl e pr obl e m s ol vi ng by ape s t o c o mpl e x per f or manc es
such as c hes s pl a y i ng and wr i t i ng by huma ns . Ty pi c a l l y t hough, pr ot ocol s are
i ncompl et e. Ma n y pr oc e s s e s oc c ur dur i ng t he pe r f or manc e of a t ask whi c h t he
subj ect can' t or doe s n' t report . T h e ps yc hol ogi s t ' s t ask i n a na l y z i ng a pr ot ocol i s t o
take t he i nc ompl e t e r ec or d pr ov i de d by t he pr ot ocol , t oget her wi t h hi s k n o wl e d g e
of human c apabi l i t i es , and t o i nf er f rom t hes e a mo de l of t he unde r l y i ng ps yc hol og-
ical pr oces s es by wh i c h t he s ubj ect per f or ms t he task.
Ana l y z i ng a pr ot ocol i s l i ke f ol l owi ng t he t racks of a por poi s e. Oc c as i onal l y, t he
porpoi se r eveal s i t s el f by br e a ki ng t he surf ace of t he sea. Its br i e f surf aci ngs are l i ke
t he gl i mps es of t he unde r l y i ng ment al pr oces s whi c h t he pr ot ocol affords us. Be -
t we e n sur f aci ngs, t he ment al pr oc es s , l i ke t he por poi s e, runs d e e p and si l ent . Our
t ask i s t o i nf er t he c our s e of t he pr oc es s f rom t hes e br i e f t r aces.
S o me ha v e s h o wn c onc e r n t hat t hi nki ng- al oud pr ot ocol s ma y di st ort or i nt er-
f er e wi t h t he ment al pr oc e s s e s whi c h we wa nt t o obs e r v e . Some t i me s subj ect s
c ompl a i n t hat i t i s har d t o t hi nk about doi ng t he t ask a nd t o t al k at t he s ame t i me.
Whi l e t he s e di f f i cul t i es t ypi c al l y di s appear wi t h a l i t t l e pr act i ce, t he y f orce us t o
t ake t he ques t i ons of di st ort i on and i nt er f er enc e ser i ousl y. For t unat el y, Er i c s s on
and Si mo n ( 1 979) ha v e pr o v i de d a t hor ough and t hought f ul r e v i e w of t he e v i d e nc e
on t hi s i s s ue. T h e y ha v e f ound t hat :
J. t her e i s no e v i d e n c e t hat t hi nki ng- al oud pr ot ocol s c ol l e c t e d unde r t he sorts of
c ondi t i ons we de s c r i be d a bo v e di st ort or i nt er f er e wi t h s ubj ec t s ' t hi nki ng wh e n
t he y ar e pe r f or mi ng t asks; and
2. t hi nki ng- al oud pr ot ocol s ve r y c l os el y r ef l ect t he t hought pr oc es s es t hat oc c ur
dur i ng task per f or manc e.
Ho we v e r , t he y al s o c o nc l ude t hat , unde r special circumstances, t hi nki ng- al oud c an
i nt er f er e wi t h t he s ubj ec t s ' t hought pr oc es s es . I n t he us ual t hi nki ng- al oud pr oc e-
dur e, t he e x pe r i me nt e r asks t he subj ect s t o say wha t e v e r i s on t hei r mi nds . I f
i ns t ead of t he us ual pr oc e dur e , t he e xpe r i me nt e r t el l s t he s ubj ect s wha t t o t al k
about , t he y ma y be f or c ed t o pa y at t ent i on t o t hi ngs t he y wo u l d or di nar i l y ha v e
i gnor ed. Suppo s e , for e x a mpl e , t hat we g a v e subj ect s a n u mb e r pr obl e m and as ke d
t he m t o t el l us e v e r y t i me t he y t hought of an odd n u mb e r whi l e s ol vi ng it. Or di nar -
i l y, t hey mi g ht pa y no at t ent i on at al l t o whe t he r a n u mb e r was odd or e v e n i n
s ol vi ng t he pr o bl e m. Wi t h our i nst r uct i ons, not onl y mus t t he y pa y s peci al at t ent i on
t o odd numbe r s , but t hey ma y al so d e v e l o p t he s ne a ki ng s us pi ci on that odd
numbe r s are i mpor t ant for t he sol ut i on whe t he r t he y are or not.
We c o nc l ude t hat as l ong as we avoi d t el l i ng our subj ect s wha t t o t hi nk about ,
t hi nki ng- al oud pr ot ocol s can pr ovi de us wi t h a f ai rl y cl ear, undi s t or t ed wi n d o w i nt o
huma n t hi nki ng pr oc e s s e s .
PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
Al t houg h we ha v e de s c r i be d prot ocol anal ysi s as a r es ear c h t ool , i t i s i mpor t ant
for y o u t o r eal i z e t hat y ou can adapt i t for your per s onal us e. I ma g i ne t hat y ou are
ha v i ng t r oubl e wi t h a par t i cul ar t ype of pr o bl e m ei t her i n s c hool or at wor k. I t mi g ht
be a wr i t i ng pr obl e m or a pr obl e m i n, say, ac c ount i ng or l aw. Yo u ha v e r ead al l t he
avai l abl e i nst ruct i on manual s , and y ou ha v e as ked p e o p l e t o h e l p y ou. Unf or t u-
nat el y, t hei r a dv i c e j us t c onf us es you. T h e y say t hi ngs l i ke, " Oh , sur e. It' s easy. Yo u
j us t reart i cul at e t he f r ames , adj ust for mar gi nal l i qui di t y at c o mp o u n d i nt erest , and
stir unt i l sl i ght l y t hi c k e ne d. "
Ho w can y ou get out of your di l e mma ? On e v e r y ef f ect i ve t hi ng y o u can do i s
t o wat c h an exper t s ol v e one of t he s e pr obl e ms . An i de al l y c oope r at i v e e xpe r t
wo ul d l et y ou t ape r ec or d a t hi nki ng- al oud pr ot ocol . Ho we v e r , y o u ma y ha v e t o
sati sfy your s el f j us t wa t c hi ng hi m or her s c r i bbl i ng out t he s uc c e s s i v e parts of t he
sol ut i on. I f y ou can, of c our s e, y ou s houl d t ake not es s o y ou can r e me mb e r t he
s e que nc e of e v e nt s . Pe r ha ps al l y ou wi l l be abl e t o do i s t o wr i t e a s e q u e nc e of
numbe r s t o i ndi c at e t he or der i n wh i c h not es we r e s c r i bbl e d on t he exper t ' s scrat ch
pad. I n any c as e, j us t wa t c hi ng anot her per s on s ol vi ng a pr o bl e m c an be r emar kabl y
hel pf ul . I n fact, Wh i mb e y and Lo c hhe a d (1980) r e c o mme nd t hat t hi nki ng al oud be
us e d as a r out i ne c l as s r oom exer c i s e t o t eac h pr obl e m- s ol v i ng ski l l s.
I n t he next s ect i on, we pr e s e nt t wo rat her di f f i cul t pr obl e ms t oget her wi t h a
det ai l ed des c r i pt i on of h o w s ome pr o bl e m sol ver s s uc c es s f ul l y s ol v e d t he m. Tr y t o
s ol ve eac h pr o bl e m be f or e r e a di ng t he sol ut i on. I f y o u ma na g e t o s ol v e t he pr ob-
l em, c ompar e y our s ol ut i on t o t he one i n t he text. I f y ou can' t s ol ve it, try t o
under s t and h o w t he pr o b l e m s ol ver who s e s ol ut i on pr oc es s i s de s c r i be d i n t he t ext
av oi de d or o v e r c a me t he di f f i cul t i es t hat y ou e x pe r i e nc e d.
The Handshaking Probl em*
A social psychologist was interested in the custom of handshaking. He noticed
that some peopl e are more inclined than others to shake hands when they are
introduced. One eveni ng when he and his wife had joined four other couples at a
party, he took advantage of the occasion to collect data. He asked each of the other
nine peopl e at the party how many peopl e they had shaken hands with during the
introductions. He received a different answer, from zero through eight, from each
of the nine people. You can assume that husbands and wi ves don't shake hands
with each other during introductions, and, of course, peopl e don't shake hands with
themselves. Gi ven this information, find out how often the psychologist' s wife
shook hands.
Ma ny p e o p l e f i nd i t har d t o b e l i e v e t hat t hi s pr obl e m can be s ol v e d wi t h onl y
t he l i ttl e i nf or mat i on g i v e n, but i t can. Tr y it.
Wh e n I fi rst e nc o unt e r e d t hi s pr obl e m, I had no i de a h o w I wa s g oi ng t o s ol ve
it. De s pi t e t hi s, I d e c i d e d t o j u mp i n by t r yi ng t o r e pr e s e nt wha t I k n e w i n a
syst emat i c way . I c hos e t he mat ri x s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 6 t o r e pr e s e nt t he f acts.
Next , I d e c i d e d arbi t rari l y ( gap- f i l l i ng dec i s i on) t o r e pr e s e nt t he per s on wh o
shook hands e i ght t i mes as HI . Equa l l y arbi t rari l y, I a s s ume d t hat t hat per s on wa s
t he hus band i n c o upl e 1 . My onl y j ust i f i cat i on for ma k i ng t hi s par t i cul ar de c i s i on
was that I had to ma k e some de c i s i on i n or der to pr oc e e d. I e nt e r e d X' s i n t he first
r ow and fi rst c o l umn i n Fi g ur e 7 for e a c h per s on HI s hook hands wi t h. T h e zeros
i ndi cat e t hat HI s hook hands nei t her wi t h hi ms e l f nor wi t h hi s wi f e.
At thi s poi nt , j u mp i n g i n y i e l de d t he first i mpor t ant i ns i ght i nt o t he pr obl e m.
* Thi s probl em was descri bed to me by R. Bhaskar.
Si nc e e v e r y o ne but Hi ' s wi f e s hook hands at l east onc e , s he i s t he onl y per s on wh o
c oul d ha v e s ha ke n hands z e r o t i mes . So I f i l l ed i n zer os for Wl r ow and c ol umn.
Ne x t I arbi t rari l y c hos e H2 t o be t he per s on wh o s hook hands s e v e n t i mes . I
i ns er t ed zer os i n t he t abl e t o i ndi cat e t hat H2 s hook hands ne i t he r wi t h hi ms e l f nor
hi s wi f e , and I put X' s i n H2' s r ow and c o l umn t o i ndi c at e t hat he s hook hands wi t h
t he r e ma i ni ng si x p e o p l e as s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 8.
No w, j u mp i n g i n l e d me t o a s e c ond di s c over y. Ev e r y o n e but H2' s wi f e had
s ha ke n hands t wi c e . So s he wa s t he onl y pe r s on wh o c oul d h a v e s hake n hands j us t
onc e . Thi s di s c ov e r y s ug g e s t e d a pat t ern. I n t he fi rst t wo c oupl e s , ei ght wa s pai r e d
wi t h z e r o and s e v e n wi t h one. I hy po t he s i z e d t hat i n t he r e ma i ni ng c oupl e s , si x
wo u l d be pai r e d wi t h t wo, f i ve wi t h t hr ee, and f our wi t h f our. Wor ki ng out t he
det ai l s ( e xe c ut i ng t he sol ut i on) pr o v e d t hat t he hy pot he s i s wa s correct .
It wa s onl y at t hi s poi nt t hat I had t he cri t i cal f act t hat I n e e d e d t o s ol v e t he
Co u p l e 1 Co u p l e 2 Co u p l e 3 Co u p l e 4 Co u p l e 5
Co u p l e 1
Co u p l e 2
Co u p l e 3
Co u p l e 4
Co u p l e 5
HI Wl H2 W2 H3 W3 H4 W4 H5 W5
HI 0 0 X X X X X X X X
Wl 0
H2 X
W2 X
H3 X
W3 X
H4 X
W4 X
H5 X
W5 X '
Figure 7. St ep One i n Sol vi ng t he Handshaki ng Probl em
Co u p l e 1 Co u p l e 2 Co u p l e 3 Co u p l e 4 Co up l e 5
Co u p l e 1
Co u p l e 2
Co u p l e 3
Co upl e 4
HI W l H2 W2 H3 W3 H4 W4 H5 W5
HI 0 0 X X X X X X X X
W l 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
H2 X 0 0 0 X X X X X X
W2 X 0 0
H3 X 0 X
W3 X 0 X
H4 X 0 X
W4 X 0 X
H5 X 0 X
W5 X 0 X
Figure 8. Proceedi ng to Fill in the Matri x to Sol ve t he Handshaki ng Probl em
p r o b l e mt h e f act t hat f our was pai r ed wi t h four. T h e soci al ps y c hol og i s t as ke d t he
ot her pe o pl e h o w of t en t he y had s hake n hands , and f ound onl y one pe r s on wh o had
s haken hands f our t i mes . He , hi msel f , mus t be t he ot her pe r s on wh o s hook hands
f our t i mes . We can c o nc l ude t he n t hat hi s wi f e s hook hands f our t i mes .
Thi s pr o bl e m demons t r at es as we l l as any I k no w t he v a l ue of j umpi ng i nt o a
pr obl e m and ma k i ng gap- f i l l i ng dec i s i ons i n s ol vi ng wha t for me at l east was a. very
i l l - def i ned pr obl e m.
The Christmas Tree Probl em*
Arrange 10 Christmas trees in five straight rows of four trees each. Agai n, try to
solve the probl em before reading further.
We wi l l de s c r i be h o w t wo subj ect s s ol v e d t hi s pr o b l e m i n si mi l ar but s l i ght l y
di f f erent wa y s . Pr o bl e m s ol ver #1 a ppr oa c he d t he pr o bl e m caut i ous l y. Fi rst , she
as ked t he e x pe r i me nt e r i f i t was i mpor t ant t hat t he t r ees we r e Chr i s t mas t r ees rat her
t han oaks or ma pl e s . T h e e xpe r i me nt e r as s ur ed her t hat t he t y pe of t r ee was not
rel evant . Next , she wa s c o nc e r ne d t hat t he pr obl e m mi g ht i nv ol v e s ome sort of t ri ck
i n r epr es ent at i on, e. g. , t hat t he numbe r s be r e pr e s e nt e d as Ro ma n nume r al s , s o t hat
" f i ve r ows of f our " mi g ht be f i ve l i nes ma k i ng up t he Ro ma n nume r al I V as b e l o w:
I V
Agai n, t he e xpe r i me nt e r r ul e d out t hi s possi bi l i t y.
Subj ec t #2, l ess caut i ous l y, s i mpl y a s s ume d t hat t he pr o b l e m i nv ol v e d no s uch
cat ches. For t unat el y for hi m, i t di dn' t .
At thi s st age i n pr o bl e m s ol vi ng, bot h subj ect s r e c o g ni z e d t hat ar r angi ng t en
t rees i n f i ve r ows of f our r equi r i ng put t i ng s ome t r ees i n mor e t han one row. To
accompl i s h t hi s, bot h s et t l ed d o wn t o ar r angi ng and r ear r angi ng dot s on pape r (see
bel ow) .
*Thi s problem was descri bed to me by C. Berkenkotter.
Af t er s ever al uns uc c es s f ul t ri es, Subj e c t #1 a ba ndo ne d t hi s appr oac h, but Sub-
j e c t #2 pe r s i s t e d and pr opos e d t he f ol l owi ng sol ut i on.
T h e e x pe r i me nt e r a s ke d Subj ec t #2 t o s ear ch for a mor e e l e g a nt sol ut i on.
Bot h subj ect s t he n r et ur ned t o t he first pr obl e m r e pr e s e nt a t i o nt he one i n-
v ol v i ng non- ov e r l a ppi ng r ows . Af t er c ons i de r abl e e xpe r i me nt at i on, Subj ec t #1 pro-
d u c e d t hi s s ol ut i on.
Subj e c t #2 r e e x a mi ne d t he pr obl e m st at ement . Whi l e pr e v i ous l y he had at-
t e nde d mos t s peci f i cal l y to " f i v e rows of four," n o w he shi f t ed hi s at t ent i on to "five
r ows of f our . " Thi s c ha ng e i n e mphas i s l e d hi m t o s ear c h for i nt er es t i ng f i gur es wi t h
f i ve part s. Thi s s ear c h s oon t ur ne d up t he star wh i c h s ug g e s t e d Subj ec t * 2 ' s
sol ut i on.

Bot h subj ect s st art ed by c ons i de r i ng r ect angul ar arrays fi rst and t hen pro- \
c e e d e d t o e x pe r i me nt wi t h t r i angl es . Wh e n t hes e ear l y at t empt s f ai l ed t o y i e l d a
qui c k s ol ut i on, bot h subj ect s at t empt ed t o c ha ng e t he r epr es ent at i on of t he pr obl e m
by r e de f i ni ng " r o w. " Bot h ar gue d ( i nde pe nde nt l y ) t hat a r ow of f i ve c oul d be
v i e we d as t wo r ows of f our as b e l o w:
Ro w 1 x
FOUR.
THE STRUCTURE OF HUMAN
MEMORY
Each, of us has s e v e r al me mor i e s wh i c h hol d di f f er ent ki nds of mat eri al for
di f f erent l engt hs of t i me. Fo r e x a mpl e , we ha v e a s ens or y me mo r y wh i c h can hol d
an i ma g e of 10 t o 12 l et t ers but only for a quar t er of a s e c ond. We ha v e a short - t erm
me mo r y whi c h wi l l hol d about s e v e n numbe r s or l et t ers for r oug hl y 1 5 s e c onds , and
we have a l ong- t er m me mo r y whi c h wi l l hol d gr eat quant i t i es of i nf or mat i ons uc h
as our k n o wl e d g e of a l a ng ua g e f or many, ma ny year s. I n t hi s book, we wi l l be
c onc e r ne d pr i mar i l y wi t h t hes e l ast t wo me mo r i e s t h e short-term memory, or
STM, and t he long-term memory, or LTM.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STM AND LTM
Fi g ur e 1 pr ov i de s us wi t h a f r amewor k for unde r s t a ndi ng huma n me mor y .
Me s s age s , r e c e i v e d mos t l y by e y e or ear, are st or ed for v e r y short per i ods of t i me
INCOMING
INFORMATION
SENSORY
MEMORY
1

T
I
O
N

VERY
<
SHORT-
TERM
REHEARSAL
SHORT- \ \ V
LONG- SHORT-
i
LONG-
TERM
/
TERM
MEMORY
MEMORY
Figure 1. A Framework for Understandi ng Human Memor y
i n sensor y st ores. I f we at t end t o t he m, t he me s s a g e s wi l l be t ransf erred t o short-
t erm memor y. Ot he r wi s e t he y are l ost. At a part y we ma y hear s ever al conver sat i ons
goi ng on at t he s ame t i me, al l of whi c h are b e i ng d u mp e d i nt o our s ens or y store.
Usual l y, we pay at t ent i on t o j us t one conver s at i on, and are c ons c i ous of t he ot hers
onl y as a ba c kg r ound buz z . T h e y ne v e r ent er our short - t erm me mo r y and we ha v e
no i dea, ei t her at t he t i me or l ater, what t hey are about .
On c e t he me s s a g e has e nt e r e d short -t erm me mor y , we c an k e e p i t t her e by
r epeat i ng i t t o our s e l v e s t ha t i s, by r ehear sal . Ot he r wi s e i t wi l l be l ost wi t hi n a f e w
s ec onds .
Lat er i n t hi s chapt er , we wi l l di s cus s h o w me s s a ge s are t r ansf er r ed t o l ong- t er m
me mo r y by a pr oc es s c al l e d el abor at i ve r ehear sal .
SHORT-TERM MEMORY
A good wa y t o under s t and t he pr oper t i es of short - t erm me mo r y i s t o t est
s ome one ' s me mo r y span. Ta b l e 1 pr ovi des l i sts of r andom numbe r s y o u can us e for
thi s pur pos e.
Tabl e 1. Random Numbers for Memory Span Test
Le ng t h Ser i es 1 Ser i es 2 Ser i es 3
4 0 8 2 4 1 2 7 9 8 2 6 9
5 4 1 6 2 3 1 4 6 0 3 1 4 5 0 8
6 9 0 7 8 9 6 7 2 3 4 9 5 2 4 1 2 7 9
7 3 0 7 1 2 8 3 8 4 9 2 6 0 7 6 4 1 3 2 6 1
8 5 4 3 7 5 9 8 0 6 9 7 8 3 5 1 7 0 6 2 9 4 8 3 8
9 4 2 1 6 9 2 1 0 8 5 3 1 8 0 9 2 9 2 9 0 8 1 3 5 8 0 1
10 5 4 6 7 4 0 2 1 9 3 1 5 6 8 2 4 0 5 1 2 4 2 8 6 5 1 3 9 1 2
1 1 8 5 7 2 9 6 1 5 3 5 8 6 8 3 0 9 7 4 6 3 5 7 4 7 9 0 3 8 6 8 5 3 5
1 2 2 7 6 0 8 1 4 9 3 6 04 0 1 8 2 4 9 3 2 0 7 6 3 3 9 4 2 6 3 9 4 1 8 0 6
Fi rst , f i nd a wi l l i ng s ubj e c t i de a l l y a f r i end wh o r eal l y doe s n' t car e h o w t he
t est c ome s out . Do n' t t est c hi l dr e n or pe o pl e wh o mi g ht be c o nc e r ne d i f t he y di dn' t
do we l l . Next , expl ai n t o t he s ubj ect t hat y ou are g oi ng t o r ead l i sts of numbe r s t o
hi m and t hat as s oon as y ou f i ni sh r eadi ng, he s houl d try t o say t he l i st j us t as he
hear d i t t he s a me numbe r s i n t he s ame order. Ke e p your wa t c h i n f ront of you and
r ead t he numbe r s s t eadi l y and wi t hout e mphas i s , at t he rate of one numb e r per
s ec ond. Start wi t h t he short est l i st and say, " No w I ' m goi ng t o r ead y ou f our
numbe r s : 2 . . . 7 . . . 1 . . . 4 . " Your s ubj ect s houl d t he n try t o r e pe at t he l i st. Ne x t
pr oc e e d t o f i ve numbe r s , si x numbe r s , and so on. I f t he s ubj ect has t r oubl e wi t h a
l i st of s e v e n or e i g ht numbe r s , don' t f orce hi m t o try al l t he l i sts up t o 12. That wi l l
onl y pr oduc e ma s s i v e f rust rat i on. St op wh e n t he s ubj ect has mi s s e d t wo or t hr ee
l i sts in a row.
Me mo r y s pan s t udi es us ual l y r equi r e t he s ubj ec t t o wor k t hr ough s ever al set s
of l i sts l i ke t hos e i n Ta b l e 1. Ty pi c a l l y , t he s ubj ect get s t he v e r y short l i sts r i ght 100
pe r c e nt of t he t i me and t he v e r y l ong l i sts z er o pe r c e nt of t he t i me. T h e subj ect ' s
me mo r y span i s t he l e ngt h of t he l i st t hat he can r epeat cor r ect l y 50 pe r c e nt of t he
t i me. A t ypi cal me mo r y s pan for adul t s i s b e t we e n s e v e n and e i ght numbe r s . I f we
per f or med t he me mor y - s pa n t est us i ng l et t ers, we wo u l d get about t he s ame resul t s
as for numbe r s . T h e a v e r a ge me mo r y span for l et t ers i s about 7. 2.
Memor y " Chunks "
T h e me mo r y s pan for f ami l i ar wor ds i s a bi t l ess t han t hat f or l et t er s 5. 86.
Ho we v e r , t hi s span i s s ur pr i s i ngl y l ar ge wh e n we c ons i de r h o w many l et t ers are
c ont ai ned i n 5. 86 wor ds . An aver age wo r d has about f i ve l et t ers. Wh e n pe o pl e
r e me mb e r f i ve or six wor ds , t he y are r e me mb e r i ng 25 or 30 l e t t e r s a numbe r far
b e y o n d t hei r me mo r y s pan for l et t ers.
The Structure of Human Memory 73
Wh y can p e o p l e r e me mb e r s o ma ny mor e l et t ers wh e n t he y are c o mbi ne d i n
wor ds t han wh e n t he y are pr e s e nt e d s epar at el y? T h e r eas on i s t hat we store i nfor-
mat i on i n " c h u n k s . " A c hunk i s a pa c ka g e of i nf or mat i on t hat i s t r eat ed as a uni t .
Let t er s are s ome t i me s t r eat ed as uni t s and s ome t i me s not . Wh e n l et t ers are pr e-
s ent ed i n an unr e l at e d wa y as i n t he l i s t XZLPTR, e a c h l et t er act s as an i nde pe nde nt
uni t . Th u s t hi s l i st wo u l d be r e me mb e r e d a s t he si x c hunks " X, " " Z , " " L , " " P , " " T , "
and " R. " Wh e n l et t ers are c o mb i ne d i nt o f ami l i ar wor ds , as i n t he l i st
P E A C H MA P RI V E R F L I G H T
t hey don' t f unct i on as i ndi vi dual uni t s. T h e s e 19 l et t ers f unct i on as f our uni t s and
wo ul d be r e me mb e r e d a s t he c hunks " p e a c h , " " ma p , " " r i v e r , " and " f l i ght . " Suc h
obser vat i ons l e d Ge o r g e Mi l l e r (1956) t o c onc l ude t hat t he c apac i t y of short -t erm
me mo r y i s 7 2 chunks, not 7 2 letters. Wh e n s ever al l et t ers are c o mb i ne d i n eac h
chunk, we can hol d ma ny mor e l et t ers i n short - t erm me mo r y t han wh e n t her e i s
onl y one l et t er per c hunk.
Wher e Do Chunks Come From?
A per s on' s abi l i t y t o r e me mb e r i n c hunks de pe nds on t hat per s on' s k no wl e dg e .
I f y ou wa nt e d t o r e me mb e r a l i st c ont ai ni ng t he Swa hi l i wo r d for l e mo n, ndimu,
you wo u l d pr oba bl y ha v e t o r e me mb e r t hr ee c h u n k s e n , dee, and moorather
t han t he s i ngl e c hunk y o u wo u l d ne e d for lemon. T h e s yl l abl es en, dee, and moo
are f ami l i ar as uni t s of pr onunc i at i on i n Eng l i s h; t her ef or e, we c an r e me mb e r t he m
as c hunks . T h e c ombi na t i on en-dee-moo, ho we v e r , i s not a f ami l i ar uni t for Eng l i s h
s peaker s , so we can' t r e me mb e r i t as a c hunk. Ndimu i s a c hunk for Swa hi l i s peaker s
be c a us e i t i s as f ami l i ar to t he m as lemon or parsnip i s to us.
Ea c h char act er i n a Ch i n e s e i de ogr aph ( Fi gur e 2) c an be r e me mb e r e d as a
c hunk t o t hos e f l uent i n Chi ne s e . For t hos e of us wh o are not c a pa bl e of r eadi ng
Chi ne s e , eac h char act er appear s t o be c ompl e x e s of f our t o 1 0 l i nes and s qui ggl e s ,
eac h of wh i c h mus t be r e me mb e r e d as a c hunk.
Chunk s c o me i n ma ny s hapes and si zes. Wh e n e v e r we r e c og ni z e a pat t er n i n
Figure 2. Three Chi nese Ideographs: " A Flight of Butterfl i es"
i nf ormat i on, we can br e ak t he i nf ormat i on d o wn i nt o c hunks and r e me mb e r i t mor e
easi l y. For e x a mpl e , f ami l i ar s e nt e nc e s can be c hunks . T h e l i st of wor ds i n Ta b l e
2A i s har d t o r e me mbe r , but t he s ame l i st i s eas y t o me mo r i z e wh e n i t i s r e or gani z e d
i nt o maxi ms , as i n Ta b l e 2B.
Tabl e 2. Maxi ms as Chunks
A. Wor ds i n bi z ar r e s e q ue nc e :
For I s e e t her e' s one ol d bas ke t l i ke al l of my r egr et i n y our c ount r y e y e s don' t
fool an I shoot one but t he fool t hat you ha v e put t o l i f e ti l l t hei r e ggs don' t g i v e
no whi t e s .
B. T h e s ame wor ds i n f ami l i ar maxi ms :
I r egr et t hat I ha v e but one l i f e t o gi v e for my count r y.
Do n' t put al l y our e g g s i n one basket .
The r e ' s no f ool l i ke an ol d f ool .
Do n' t s hoot ti l l y o u s e e t he whi t e s of t hei r e y e s .
Gr oups of l et t ers c an be c hunks e v e n i f t he y don' t f orm wor ds . D D T , I B M,
RS VP, and US S R are e x a mpl e s of f ami l i ar l et t er cl ust er s t hat we t reat as c hunks .
Fami l i ar dat es s uc h as 1066 and 1 492 are e x a mpl e s of numb e r c hunks . Te l e p h o n e
numbe r s t hat are eas y t o c hunk, s uc h as 7 07 - 1 7 7 6, are eas y t o r e me mb e r for t hat
r eason.
Recodi ng
So me t i me s me s s a g e s can be r e c o de d s o t hat we can ge t mor e i nf or mat i on i nt o
eac h c hunk. Smi t h ( r epor t ed i n Mi l l er , 1956) has s ho wn a dr amat i c ef f ect of r ecod-
i ng on me mo r y s pan for bi nar y di gi t s. * Smi t h first de t e r mi ne d t hat hi s subj ect , wh o
wa s unus ua l l y g ood at short - t erm me mo r y t asks, c oul d hol d 1 5 bi nar y di gi t s i n
i mme di a t e me mor y . Tha t i s, he c oul d l i st en t o and r e pe at ba c k a l i st l i ke t hi s:
1-0-1-1-0-1-0-0-0-1-1-0-1-1-0
Ne x t he dr i l l ed hi s s ubj ec t t hor oughl y i n s ever al r e c odi ng s c he me s . I n t he 2 : 1
r e c odi ng s c he me , t he s ubj ect first g r oupe d t he l i st of di gi t s i n pai rs and t hen
r e c ode d e a c h pai r by t he r ul e s ho wn i n t he box l a be l e d " 2 : 1 Re c o d e r " i n Fi g ur e 3.
T h e s ubj ect st or ed t he name s of t he pai rs rat her t han t he ori gi nal bi nar y di gi t s
i n short - t erm me mor y . Th u s , he had t o r e me mb e r onl y si x pai r name s rat her t han
1 2 bi nar y di gi t s. Wh e n as ke d t o r ecal l , t he s ubj ect d e c o d e d t he pai r name s and
at t empt ed t o r epor t t he ori gi nal l i st of bi nar y di gi t s. Thi s s e q u e n c e of e v e nt s i s al s o
s hown i n Fi g ur e 3. I n t he 3 : 1 r e c odi ng s c he me , t he s ubj ect g r o upe d t he l i st of di gi t s
i nt o t ri pl et s a nd t he n r e c o de d e a c h t ri pl et by t he r ul e i n t he box l a be l e d " 3 : 1
Re c o d e r " i n Fi g ur e 4. Wi t h t hi s s c he me , t he s ubj ect st or ed t he f our name s of t he
t r i pl et s 5- 5- 0- 6r at her t han t he 1 2 bi nar y di gi t s. I n addi t i on, 4 : 1 and 5 : 1 r e c odi ng
s c he me s we r e al so t aught .
Wh e n t he r e c odi ng s c he me s had b e e n mas t er ed, t he subj ect ' s me mo r y s pan for
bi nar y di gi t s wa s agai n t est ed. Thi s t i me t he s ubj ect r e c o de d t he bi nar i es as he
l i s t ened t o t he m and t he n d e c o d e d t he m agai n wh e n he r e pe a t e d t he m. T h e r es ul t
was t hat al l of t he r e c odi ng s c he me s i mpr o v e d t he me mo r y s pan for bi nar i es . Wi t h
3 : 1 r e c odi ng, he r e me mb e r e d a bout 33 bi nar i es , and wi t h 5 : 1 r ec odi ng, mor e
t han 40.
* Binary digits are sequences of zeros and ones.
Rec ent l y, Ch a s e and Er i c s s on ( 1979) r epor t ed me mor y - s pa n resul t s for a s ub-
j ect wh o us es a c o mpl e x s c he me for r e c odi ng de c i mal di gi t s as t i mes for r unni ng
races. Thi s s ubj ect can r e me mb e r up t o 81 de c i ma l di gi t s.
Searchi ng for Chunks
Chunk i ng i s an ac t i v i t y i t i s s ome t hi ng t hat we do a l t ho ug h we are of t en
c ompl e t e l y una wa r e t hat we are doi ng it. Ch u n k i n g i nv ol v e s not i c i ng, but s ome-
t i mes we fail t o not i c e a pat t er n i n t he mat er i al we are t r yi ng t o l earn. Thi s f act was
demons t r at ed v e r y ni c e l y i n e xpe r i me nt s by Bo we r and Spr i ngs t on (1970). I n bot h
exper i ment s , subj ect s s t udi e d and i mme di a t e l y t r i ed t o r ecal l l i sts of l et t ers. The r e
we r e t wo sorts of l i s t s l i s t s l i ke TV I B M T WA US S R i n whi c h t he c hunks are
easy t o f i nda nd l i sts l i ke I C B MF BI U S A OK wh e r e t he c hunks are a l i ttl e
harder t o f i nd. ( Be s ur e y o u do f i nd t he m or y o u wi l l mi s s an i mpor t ant poi nt. ) I n
one st udy, t he gr oups we r e f or med by i ns er t i ng paus e s i n s poke n l i sts. I n t he ot her,
t hey we r e f or med by c ha ng i ng t he s i ze or t he col or of t he l et t ers i n pr i nt ed l i sts. I n
bot h of t he e xpe r i me nt s , t he subj ect s r e me mb e r e d mor e l et t ers f rom t he easy-t o-
f i nd l i sts t han f rom t he hard- t o- f i nd o ne s a nd t he di f f er ences we r e b i g i n s ome
Triplet Names DEcoded 1-0-1
Original List Reported 1 - 0 - 1
by Subject
Figure 4. 3:1 Recodi ng
cas es , mor e t han 40 per c ent . T h e e xpe r i me nt e r s we r e abl e t o s ho w t hat t he subj ect s
we r e not ma k i ng us e of t he c hunks i n t he hard-t o-f i nd l i st s. I f t he subj ect s had ma de
us e of t he c hunks t hat we r e pr e s e nt i n t he l i st s, t he y wo u l d ha v e r e me mb e r e d mor e.
I t i s c l ear t hat we can ma k e l ear ni ng and r e me mb e r i ng eas i er by s e ar c hi ng
c ons c i ous l y for c hunks i n t he mat eri al we are s t udyi ng.
Forgetting and Short-Term Memor y
Th e r e are t wo wa y s we can l os e i nf or mat i on f rom short - t erm me mo r y : by
displacement and by decay.
Displacement
I ma g i ne y our s e l f as a no v i c e wai t er wh o be l i e v e s t hat good wai t er s k e e p orders
i n short -t erm me mor y . Yo u t ake t he or der of y our first c us t omer : mus s e l s , bor scht ,
spaghet t i , ri ce, as par agus , pi c kl es , and cocoa. " Ve r y good, s i r , " y o u say, not r eal l y
me a ni ng it, but c onf i dent t hat t he or der i s saf el y st or ed i n short - t erm me mor y . As
y ou wa l k a wa y , t he c us t ome r says, " An d a s i de of z uc c hi ni , wai t e r ! " No w y ou' r e i n
t r oubl e. Your short - t erm me mo r y hol ds s e v e n c hunks and z uc c hi ni make s ei ght .
You r e me mb e r t he z uc c hi ni , but i t has p u s h e d s ome t hi ng e l s e out of S T M. Yo u ha v e
The Structure of Human Memory
77
no i dea wha t i t wa s . But y o u k no w that at s ome poi nt t he c us t ome r i s goi ng t o say,
" Wai t er , wh e r e i s my ? "
Thi s i s f or get t i ng by displacement. Be c a us e short - t erm me mo r y hol ds a l i mi t ed
numbe r of c hunks , put t i ng a n e w c hunk i n wh e n i t i s ful l wi l l pus h an ol d c hunk
out.
Decay
I nf or mat i on i s l ost v e r y qui c kl y f rom S T M i f we don' t r e he ar s e it. Thi s fact
was demons t r at ed cl ear l y i n an e x pe r i me nt by Pet er s on and Pe t e r s on ( 1959) . T h e
Pet er s ons as ked t hei r subj ect s t o r e me mb e r j us t t hr ee l e t t e r s a t r i pl et of con-
sonant s s uch as " P T K" f o r l ess t han a mi nut e. Thi s s e e ms l i ke a v e r y eas y task.
Ho we v e r , b e t we e n he a r i ng t he l et t ers and t he test, t he s ubj ect had t o c ount back-
war ds by t hr ee' s as fast as pos s i bl e. T h e i nt er c hange b e t we e n t he e x pe r i me nt e r and
t he subj ect we nt as f ol l ows :
Expe r i me nt e r : " RXB , 4 7 1 "
Subj ect : " 4 7 1 , 468, 465, 462, . . . " [l i ght s i gnal i ng t est ] " R X B "
Count i ng ba c kwa r ds , i f i t i s do ne r api dl y, pr e ve nt s r ehear sal qui t e ef f ect i vel y.
You can c onv i nc e y our s e l f of t hi s by t r yi ng it.
T h e resul t s of t he Pe t e r s ons ' s t udy are s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 5, and t he y are surpri s-
i ng. Af t er s e v e n s e c onds , t he subj ect ' s c hanc e s of get t i ng t he t r i pl et r i ght are 50/50,
and after 1 8 s e c onds , onl y one i n 10. T h e c onc l us i on i s obv i ous : E v e n a s i mpl e
me s s age i n S T M wi l l de c a y i n l ess t han 20 s ec onds a nd be l ost i f i t i s not r ef r es hed
by r ehear sal .
Rehearsal
We can mai nt ai n a me s s a g e i n short - t erm me mo r y for qui t e s ome t i me. A
c ommon wa y t o r ehear s e a me s s a g e i s t o say i t over and ov e r t o our s el ves . Suppo s e
Figure 5. Tri gram Recall After Vari ous Intervals Filled Wi t h Backward Counti ng
From The Psychology of Learning and Memory by Dougl as L. Hi ntzman, W. H. Freeman
and Company, copyri ght 1 978.
we wa nt t o ma k e a p h o ne cal l i n a publ i c pl ac e whe r e t he pho ne book i s i n one pl a c e
and t he pho ne i s i n anot her . We al l k no w wha t t o do: We l ook up t he numbe r and
r epeat i t ov e r and ov e r whi l e we r ace ma dl y t o t he phone , a v oi di ng pe o pl e wh o
mi g ht ask us a ques t i on t hat c oul d wi p e t he numbe r out of our heads .
Sur pr i s i ngl y, y o u ng c hi l dr e n ma y not k no w t hi s r ehear sal st rat egy. Ke e ne y ,
Ca nni z z o , and Fl a v e l l ( 1967) f ound t hat s ome f i rst -grade c hi l dr e n r ehear s ed and
s ome di dn' t . Th o s e wh o r e he ar s e d di d bet t er i n short - t erm me mo r y t est s t han t hose
wh o di dn' t . Ho we v e r , wh e n t he non- r ehear s er s we r e t ol d t o r ehear s e, t hei r per-
f or manc e i mpr o v e d t o t he l e v e l of t he c hi l dr en wh o r e he ar s e d on t hei r own.
Wi t h uni nt e r r upt e d r ehear sal we can k e e p a pho ne n u mb e r i n short - t erm me m-
or y for a l ong t i me. Just h o w l ong wo u l d appear t o d e p e n d on t he pe r s i s t e nc e wi t h
wh i c h t he per s on c ont i nues t o r ehear s e. Th e r e i s cur r ent l y no Gui nne s s Wor l d
Re c or d t i me for hol di ng a t e l e phone numb e r i n S T M, but per haps s o me o ne desi r -
i ng et er nal f ame wi l l s oon es t abl i s h one.
Summary: Short-term Memor y
1. A c hunk i s a pa c ka g e of i nf or mat i on t hat we t reat as a uni t be c a us e we r e c og ni z e
it as a f ami l i ar pat t er n.
2. Short - t erm me mo r y can hol d 7 2 c hunks .
3. By ac t i vel y s e ar c hi ng for c hunks i n t he mat eri al we wa nt t o l ear n, we can ma k e
l ear ni ng easi er .
4. By c ont i nuous r ehear s al , we c an k e e p a me s s a g e i n short - t erm me mo r y for l ong
per i ods of t i me.
5. Wi t hout r ehear s al , i nf or mat i on i n S T M wi l l de c a y wi t hi n 20 s e c onds .
LONG- TERM MEMORY
Th e r e are t wo dr amat i c wa y s i n whi c h l ong- t er m me mo r y di f f ers f rom short-
t er m me mor y . Fi r st , whi l e short -t erm me mor i e s l ast for l ess t han 20 s e c onds , l ong-
t er m me mo r i e s can l ast for a l i f et i me. A v e r y ol d man ma y be abl e t o recal l wh e r e
he sat i n hi s f i rst - grade cl as s r oom and what hi s t eac her l o o k e d l i ke. Se c ond, whi l e
short - t erm me mo r y can hol d onl y 7 2 c hunks , t he c apac i t y of l ong- t er m me mo r y i s
pr act i cal l y unl i mi t e d. Long- t e r m me mo r y cont ai ns our k n o wl e d g e of our l a ngua ge
and of t he f aces of t he p e o p l e we know. I t cont ai ns our k n o wl e d g e of h o w t o f i nd
our wa y ar ound t he ci t y, h o w t o or der i n a rest aurant , h o w t o do al gebr a, and h o w
t o pe e l a banana. I c oul d go on, but i t s houl d be cl ear al r eady t hat t he amount of
i nf or mat i on i n l ong- t er m me mo r y i s hug e .
T h e t opi c of l ong- t er m me mo r y can be di v i de d qui t e nat ur al l y i nt o t hr ee
phas e s : first, an encoding pha s e i n wh i c h we put i nf or mat i on i nt o me mor y ; s e c ond,
a storage pha s e ; a nd f i nal l y, ^retrieval pha s e i n whi c h we r e c ov e r t he i nf or mat i on
we st or ed ( s ee Fi g ur e 6). I t i s ne c e s s ar y t o under s t and al l t hr ee of t hes e phas e s i f
ENCODING | STORAGE [ RETRIEVAL
Figure 6. The Three Phases of Long-term Memor y
we are t o unde r s t and h o w t o i mpr ov e l ong- t er m me mor y . We wi l l di scuss t he
phas es i n r e v e r s e or der , de a l i ng first wi t h r et r i eval , t he n st orage, and l e av i ng t he
mos t c ompl i c a t e d t o p i c e nc o d i ng f o r l ast.
Retrieval
E v e n t hough we ha v e s ome fact, s uc h as a na me or dat e, st or ed i n our me mor y ,
t hat doe s n' t me a n we can ge t at t he i nf or mat i on wh e n e v e r we wa nt it. We ha v e al l
f el t t he f rust rat i on of r e c og ni z i ng p e o p l e at par t i es b ut b e i ng c ompl e t e l y una bl e t o
dr e dge up t hei r na me s c e r t a i nl y not i n t i me for i nt r oduct i ons . Of t en we f eel t hat
t he na me i s " o n t he t i p of (our) t o ng ue . " We ma y be s ur e t hat i t has t hr ee s yl l abl es
and be g i ns wi t h " B " and we k no w t hat i f s o me o ne t ol d us t he na me we wo ul d
r e c ogni z e i t i mme di at e l y .
Rog e r Br o wn and Da v i d Mc Ne i l l (1966) ha v e s t udi e d t he " t i p of t he t o ng ue "
p h e n o me n o n i n pe o pl e t r yi ng t o r e me mb e r wor ds . T h e y r ead def i ni t i ons of i nf re-
que nt l y us e d wor ds t o subj ect s wh o we r e as ke d t o r e s pond by wr i t i ng d o wn t he
c or r e s pondi ng wor d. For e xampl e , t he y wo u l d r ead " a navi gat i onal i ns t r ument
us e d i n me as ur i ng angul ar di s t ances , e s pe c i al l y t he al t i t ude of sun, moon, and stars
at s e a. " S o me of t he subj ect s had no i de a wha t wo r d t hi s de f i ne s , whi l e s ome ot hers
we r e i mme di a t e l y abl e t o wr i t e d o wn " s ext ant . " T h e i nt er es t i ng s ubj ect s , t hough,
we r e t he ones wh o c oul d not i mme di a t e l y wr i t e d o wn t he a ns we r , but wh o f el t t hat
i t was j ust " on t he t i p of (thei r) t o ng ue . " T h e s e subj ect s we r e e nc o ur a g e d t o g i v e
al l t he i nf ormat i on t he y c oul d about t he wor d: Wha t are its fi rst l et t er s? Ho w ma ny
syl l abl es does i t ha v e ? Wha t doe s i t r hy me wi t h? Ab o ut hal f we r e a bl e t o i dent i f y
t he first l et t er cor r ect l y, and about hal f k n e w t he n u mb e r of s yl l abl es i n t he wor d.
Ma ny of t hes e subj ect s di d e v e nt ua l l y r e me mb e r t he cor r ect wor d.
T h e " t i p of t he t o n g u e " p h e n o me n o n i l l ust rat es c l ear l y t hat e v e n t hough we
have i nf or mat i on i n me mo r y , we can' t a l wa y s ge t at i t wh e n we want .
Retrieval Tasks
Ps yc hol ogi s t s ha v e i nv e nt e d a var i et y of wa y s t o t est me mor y . S o me of t hes e
met hods put t he b ur de n on t he subj ect s t o s ho w wha t t he y k no w, whi l e ot hers
r eveal k n o wl e d g e t hat t he subj ect s t he ms e l v e s can' t r epor t and i nde e d are una wa r e
t hey pos s es s .
Supppo s e t hat y ou a s ke d subj ect s t o me mo r i z e t he f o l l o wi ng l i st:
Derby Hut Edna
Carp Beret Orange
Jane Peach Flounder
Appl e House George
Church Grape Skyscraper
Trout Hat Fez
Frank Cod
Let ' s a s s ume t hat y o u r ead t hi s l i st t o t he m i n order, one wo r d at a t i me , and t hat
you r ead i t t hr ough c o mpl e t e l y t hr ee t i mes bef or e y o u t es t ed t he s ubj ec t s ' me mor y .
The r e are ma ny wa y s t hat y o u c oul d t est t he s ubj ect s ' k no wl e d g e . We wi l l di s cus s
four me t hods : u n c u e d r ecal l , c u e d r ecal l , r ec ogni t i on, and s avi ngs .
Uncued recall. T h e cri t i cal f eat ur e of u nc u e d recal l t asks i s t hat t he subj ect s are
80
r e qui r e d t o r e pr oduc e t he mat eri al t hey ha v e l e a r ne d wi t h no ai ds. Th e r e are t wo
c ommon ki nds of u n c u e d r ecal l t asks: serial recall and free recall.
If y ou ask t he subj ect s t o wr i t e d o wn t he wor ds i n the order i n whi c h t he y he ar d
t hem, y ou wi l l be t es t i ng by t he me t hod of seri al r ecal l . I f t he subj ect s wr i t e
C A R P - DE R B Y rat her t han DE R B Y - C A R P , t hey ge t t wo wr ong. Re me mb e r i n g t he
numb e r of y our c ombi na t i on l oc k i s an e v e r y da y e x a mpl e of a seri al recal l task. Yo u
ha v e t o r e me mb e r t he numbe r s and t hei r order.
I f y o u l et t he s ubj ec t wr i t e d o wn t he wor ds i n any or der , t he n y o u are t est i ng
by t he me t ho d of f r ee r ecal l . Fr e e recal l i s eas i er for t he subj ect s t han seri al recal l
b e c a us e t he y can be s c or ed cor r ect e v e n t hough t he y don' t r e me mb e r t he or der of
t he wor ds . Be i n g a s ke d t o say wh o wa s at a par t y or me e t i ng i s a c o mmo n f ree recal l
task. T h e or der i n wh i c h y ou me nt i on t he pe o pl e does n' t mat t er.
Cued recall. If y o u g a v e t he subj ect s hi nt s whi c h t he y t r i ed t o recal l
( Re me mb e r any fi sh na me s ? Do e s any t hi ng r hy me wi t h f i g?), t he n y o u wo u l d be
us i ng t he me t ho d of c u e d r ecal l . A c o mmo n e x a mpl e of a c ue d r ecal l t ask i s t he part y
si t uat i on i n wh i c h y o u ha v e t o r e me mb e r pe opl e ' s na me s wh e n y ou s ee t he m. T h e
f ace i s t he c ue t o t he na me whi c h y ou mus t try t o r ecal l . A c ue d r ecal l t ask can be
ma de har der or eas i er by c ha ng i ng t he c ue s . T h e s e c ond l i st of c ue s i n Ta b l e 3
wo u l d pr oba bl y be mor e hel pf ul t han t he first.
Tabl e 3. Cue Lists
Ge ne r a l Ca t e g or y C u e s Spec i f i c Ca t e g or y Cu e s Rh y me Cu e s
l i vi ng t hi ngs f i sh har p
f ood frui t t eac h
na me s first name s t ank
c l ot hi ng he a d gear bat
ma n- ma de st ruct ures bui l di ngs l ur ch
Ca t e gor i e s c an s e r ve as v e r y powe r f ul ret ri eval c ue s . Tu l v i n g and Pear l s t one
(1966) de mons t r at e d t hi s i n an e x pe r i me nt i n whi c h t he subj ect s l e ar ne d l i sts of
wor ds wh i c h c oul d be g r o upe d i nt o cat egor i es . For e x a mpl e , t he wor ds " b o mb , "
" t a bl e , " " c ar r ot , " " c a nno n, " " pot at o, " and " c ha i r " can be g r o upe d i nt o t he cat e-
gor i es " we a p o n s , " " f ur ni t ur e , " and " v e g e t a b l e s . "
T w o gr oups of subj ect s s t udi ed l i sts whi c h c ons i s t ed of 48 wor ds i n 1 2 cat ego-
ri es. Gr o u p 1 was a s ke d t o r ecal l as ma ny wor ds as t he y c oul d. Gr o u p 2 had t he s ame
t ask but t he y we r e al s o g i v e n t he name s of t he cat egor i es t o he l p t he m. Pe o pl e i n
Gr o u p 1 r e me mb e r e d a bout 1 9 of t he wor ds , whi l e p e o p l e i n Gr o u p 2 r e me mb e r e d
near l y 30. T h e pe o pl e i n t he t wo gr oups r e me mb e r e d about t he s ame numbe r of
wor ds i n e a c h c a t e g or y 2. 6 out of 4 b u t Gr o u p 2 r e me mb e r e d wor ds i n ma ny
mor e c a t e g o r i e s 1 1 . 5 cat egor i es for Gr o u p 2, but onl y 7. 3 for Gr o u p 1 . T h e advan-
t age t hat ha v i ng t he c at e gor y name s ga v e t o Gr o up 2, t hen, wa s t hat i t i nc r e as e d t he
numbe r of categories t he y r e me mbe r e d. Not i c e t hat i f Gr o u p 1 r e me mb e r e d any
wor ds i n a cat egor y, t he n t he y r e me mb e r e d as ma ny as Gr o u p 2. Thi s s ugges t s t hat
r e me mb e r i ng one wo r d i n a c at egor y r e mi nds t he per s on of t he wh o l e cat egor y, j ust
as he ar i ng t he c at e gor y na me doe s . We c an i magi ne our s el ves t r yi ng t o recal l t he
wor ds , s ayi ng t o our s e l v e s , " C H. . . CH s o me t h i n g CHAI R! Oh , y e a h! An d b e d
and t a bl e ! "
Thi s t e nde nc y t o r e me mb e r t hi ngs i n cl ust ers f rom t he s ame cat egor y wa s
c l ear l y demons t r at ed by Bous f i e l d ( 1953) . He as ked subj ect s t o s t udy a l i st of 60
wor ds f rom t he f our c at egor i es : ani mal s , na me s , pr of es s i ons , and v e g e t a bl e s . T h e
cat egor i es we r e s c r a mbl e d t o pr oduc e l i sts l i ke t hi s: gi raf f e, Ot t o, baker , t ur ni p,
The Structure of Human Memory
87
Noah, cel er y, Ber nar d, c ame l , fl ori st, etc. T h e subj ect s we r e a s ke d t o recal l as ma ny
wor ds as t he y c oul d i n any or der that oc c ur r ed t o t he m. I n t hei r r es pons es , t he
subj ect s wo u l d r ecal l first a gr oup of i t ems f rom one cat egor y, pa us e , and t hen recal l
a gr oup of i t ems f rom anot her cat egor y, et c. Re me mb e r i n g an i t em s e e me d t o c ue
recal l for ot her i t ems i n t he s ame cat egor y.
Recognition. You c oul d al so t est your s ubj ect s ' me mo r y for 20 wor ds by as ki ng
t he m t o pi c k t he m out of a l arger l i st whi c h consi st s of t he 20 ol d wor ds mi x e d wi t h
20 n e w ones t hat we r e n' t on t he l i st t he y st udi ed. T h e s e n e w wor ds are c al l ed
" f oi l s . " T h e subj ect s' t ask i s t o go t hr ough t he 40 wor ds , mar ki ng t he m ei t her " o l d "
i f t he y r e c ogni z e t he m as part of t he s t udi ed l i st, or " n e w " i f t he y do not. Thi s i s a
r ecogni t i on task, whi c h i s ge ne r al l y eas i er t han a recal l task.
T h e di f f i cul t y of a r ec ogni t i on task var i es wi t h t he nat ur e of t he f oi l s. We wo u l d
expec t our subj ect s t o do bet t er i f t he foi l s we r e di f f er ent f rom t hos e i t ems on t he
ori gi nal list. For e x a mpl e , i f t he ol d l i st we r e ma de up of na me s of frui t, and t he f oi l s
we r e al l It al i an wor ds , t he r ec ogni t i on t ask wo u l d be s i mpl e.
Rec ogni t i on t asks i n real l i f e can be mor e c ompl i c at e d: I f y o u go t o t he ai rport
t o me e t s ome one y o u ha v e me t onl y onc e bef or e, y ou ha v e a di f f i cul t r ec ogni t i on
task i n pi c ki ng t hat pe r s on out of t he c r owd. I f y our l aundr y get s mi x e d wi t h
s ome one el s e' s at t he l aundr omat , you al so ha v e a r ec ogni t i on task.
Savings. I f i ns t ead of t es t i ng y our subj ect s ri ght after l ear ni ng, y o u t es t ed t he m
a we e k or a mont h l at er, t he y wo u l d pr obabl y get v e r y l o w scor es on any of t he t est s
we ha v e di s c us s ed. T h e y mi g ht e v e n c l ai m t hat t he y r e me mb e r e d abs ol ut el y not h-
i ng about t he l i sts. E v e n so, by us i ng t he savi ngs me t ho d y ou c oul d pr oba bl y s how
that t he y sti l l r et ai ned s ome t hi ng of t hei r earl i er l ear ni ng. Wi t h t he s avi ngs me t hod,
we me as ur e how l ong i t t akes t he s ubj ect t o r el ear n t he ol d l i st i n c ompar i s on t o
l ear ni ng a c ompa r a bl e n e w l i st. I f i t t akes t he subj ect s s e v e n r epet i t i ons t o r el ear n
t he ol d l i st and 1 0 t o l ear n t he ne w, t he n r el ear ni ng t i me i s 70 pe r c e nt of l ear ni ng
t i me, and t he s avi ngs scor e i s 30 per c ent .
Pe o pl e wh o ha v e t o r e pe at a cour s e are of t en s ur pr i s ed by h o w mu c h eas i er t he
course i s t he s e c ond t i me ar ound. E v e n i f t he y f l unke d t he c our s e t he first t i me,
be i ng i n t he s ame Jear ni ng si t uat i on r eveal s k n o wl e d g e t he y di dn' t s us pec t
t hey had.
On e s t udy s h o we d t hat a c hi l d ma y ret ai n a good deal of i nf or mat i on e v e n f rom
ver y ear l y e x pe r i e nc e s . Wh e n hi s son wa s b e t we e n 1 5 mont hs and t hr ee year s ol d,
H. E. Burt t ( 1 941 ) r ead pas s ages t o hi m f rom Sophoc l e s i n t he ori gi nal Gr e e k. He
r epeat ed e a c h pas s age about 90 t i mes . Wh e n t he c hi l d wa s 8V2, he l e ar ne d bot h ol d
and n e w pas s ages and s h o we d a savi ngs scor e of 27 pe r c e nt for t he ol d. By t he t i me
t he chi l d wa s 1 4, t he s avi ngs scor e dr oppe d t o ei ght per c ent , and at 18, t o z er o
percent .
Th e f our r ecal l tasks ha v e b e e n pr e s e nt e d he r e i n i nc r e as i ng or der of sensi t i v-
ity t o t he s ubj ect s ' k no wl e d g e . For a g i v e n de g r e e of l ear ni ng, we wo u l d e x pe c t our
subj ects t o scor e wor s t i n u nc u e d recal l t asks, bet t er i n c u e d recal l t asks, and still
bet t er i n r ec ogni t i on t asks. T h e savi ngs me t hod i s t he mos t s ens i t i ve of al l s i nce i t
may r eveal k n o wl e d g e e v e n wh e n t he s ubj ect scor es z e r o on al l of t he ot her t asks.
We wi l l ma k e us e of t he f act t hat s ome r et r i eval t asks are eas i er t han ot hers
wh e n we di s c us s me mo r y t e c hni que s i n t he next chapt er . S o me me mo r y t ech-
ni ques wor k by c ha ng i ng a har der r et r i eval t ask i nt o an eas i er one , e. g. , by c hangi ng
an unc ue d r ecal l t ask i nt o a c u e d r ecal l task.
Summary: Retrieval
I . Ev e n t hough i nf or mat i on i s st or ed i n our me mor y , we can' t a l wa y s r et r i eve it, as
t he " t i p of t he t o n g u e " p h e n o me n o n s hows .
2. Ret r i eval t asks var y i n di f f i cul t y i n t he f ol l owi ng or der :
Un c u e d r ecal l (most di f f i cul t )
C u e d r ecal l
Re c ogni t i on
Savi ngs (l east di f f i cul t )
For a g i v e n d e g r e e of l ear ni ng, we wo u l d get t he be s t scor e on a s avi ngs t est and
t he wor s t on an u nc u e d r ecal l t est .
Storage
Suppo s e s o me o ne gi v e s y o u a me s s a g e t hat y o u wi l l ha v e t o act on t omor r ow,
s uc h as: " Wh e n y o u t ake t he do g t o t he c l eaner s , t el l t he m t o us e l es s s t ar ch. "
Be t we e n t he t i me y o u e nc o d e t he me s s a g e and t he t i me y o u ha v e t o r ecal l it, y o u
wo u l d ho pe t hat t he i nf or mat i on wi l l r emai n st ored, pe a c e f ul and undi s t ur be d, i n
l ong- t er m me mor y . Ho we v e r , l ots of t hi ngs can ha ppe n t o an uns us pe c t i ng me mo r y
t race. I f y o u we r e hi t on t he he a d short l y after r e c e i v i ng t he me s s a g e , y o u mi g ht
suf f er f rom r et r ogr ade a mn e s i a a c ondi t i on i n wh i c h me mo r i e s of e v e nt s exper i -
e n c e d j us t be f or e t he b l o w are l ost . Thi s p h e n o me n o n r e mi nds us dr amat i cal l y t hat
t he me mo r y t race has a phy s i c a l basi s wi t hi n our br ai ns and t hat i t can be di s t ur bed
by a gross phy s i c a l e v e nt l i ke a b l o w on t he he ad.
I f any t hi ng ha ppe ns t o our me mo r y t r ace, t hough, i t i s far mor e l i kel y t o ha ppe n
t hr ough i nt er f er enc e t han t hr ough r et r ogr ade amnes i a. I nt er f er enc e occur s wh e n
l ear ni ng one t hi ng ma k e s i t di f f i cul t for us t o r e me mb e r s ome t hi ng el s e. Ps y c hol o-
gi st s di s t i ngui s h b e t we e n t wo ki nds of i nt e r f e r e nc e pr oac t i ve and retroactive. I n
pr oac t i ve i nt er f er enc e, s ome t hi ng l e ar ne d ear l i er ma k e s i t di f f i cul t t o r e me mb e r
s ome t hi ng l e a r ne d l at er. For e x a mpl e , i f l ast we e k y o u ha d got t en t he me s s a g e ,
" Wh e n y o u ge t t he do g f rom t he c l eaner s , t el l t he m t he st arch wa s j us t r i ght , " t hi s
me s s a g e mi g ht be c onf us e d wi t h t he cur r ent me s s a g e and c aus e pr oact i ve i nt er-
f er enc e. T h e ef f ect of pr oac t i ve i nt er f er ence can be qui t e l ar ge. Gr e e nb e r g and
Un d e r wo o d ( 1950) as ke d pe o pl e t o l ear n 20 l i sts of wo r d pa i r s o ne l i st e v e r y t wo
days . For t he fi rst l i st , t he y f ound t hat i n 24 hour s , s ubj ect s f orgot about 20 pe r c e nt
of t he pai rs t hat t he y had l ear ned. Wi t h e a c h s uc c e s s i v e l i st t he y l ear ned, t he y f orgot
mor e i n 24 hour s unt i l on t hei r t we nt i e t h l i st t he y f orgot near l y 80 pe r c e nt i n 24
hour s . Ea c h s uc c e s s i v e l i st suf f ers f rom mor e pr oac t i ve i nt er f er enc e t han di d t he
pr e v i ous one . Thi s can ma k e t he di f f er ence b e t we e n r e me mb e r i n g f our out of f i ve
i t ems and f or get t i ng f our out of f i ve i t ems .
I n r et r oact i ve i nt er f er enc e, s ome t hi ng l e ar ne d l at er ma ke s i t di f f i cul t t o re-
me mb e r s ome t hi ng wh i c h wa s l e ar ne d earl i er. Th u s , i f after your first me s s a g e
about t he dog , y o u r e c e i v e d a great ma ny ot her me s s a g e s about dogs and l aundr i es ,
t hes e c oul d c aus e r et r oact i ve i nt er f er ence wh i c h wo u l d gr eat l y i nc r eas e y our
c hanc e s of f or get t i ng t he or i gi nal me s s a g e .
Ret r oac t i ve i nt er f er enc e wa s demons t r at ed i n a c u e d r ecal l e x pe r i me nt by
Bar nes and Un d e r wo o d ( 1959) . T h e subj ect s first l e a r ne d l i st A- B ( see Ta b l e 4) s o
that wh e n t he y we r e g i v e n t he A i t ems t he y c oul d r e pe at t he B i t ems . T h e n t hey
be g a n t o s t udy t he A - C l i st ( see Ta b l e 4). Not i c e t hat t he A i t ems i n t he A- B l i st are
exact l y t he s ame as t he A i t ems i n t he A- C l i st. I n l ear ni ng t he A- B l i st , t he subj ect s
l ear n Z U T - U S E F U L and i n l ear ni ng t he A- C l i st, t he y l ear n Z UT - B R OWN.
Be t we e n pr ac t i c e s es s i ons on t he A- C l i st, t he subj ect s we r e t es t ed by pr es ent i ng
t he A l i st and as ki ng t he m t o gi v e both t he B and t he C i t ems . As pr act i ce on t he
A- C l i st c ont i nue d, c u e d r ecal l for t he B i t ems de c l i ne d f r om 100 pe r c e nt t o l i t t l e
mor e t han 50 pe r c e nt af ter 20 A- C pr act i ce tri al s. Cl e a r l y r et r oact i ve i nt er f er enc e
had a v e r y ma r ke d ef f ect .
Tabl e 4. Nonsense Syllable/Adjective Pairs
No ns e ns e No ns e ns e
Sy l l a bl e Adj ec t i ve Sy l l abl e Adj e c t i ve
A B A C
Z U T usef ul Z U T b r o wn
P U M dark P U M humb l e
BI P ear l y BI P tal l
S E G gr e e n S E G ha ppy
Y A D n e w Y A D eas y
L US short L US f r e que nt
V O B hel pf ul V O B hot
KIJ t ough KIJ we t
WO F sad WO F wi d e
RUP di st ant R UP l i ve l y
Ca n me mor i e s de c a y s i mpl y t hr ough t he pas s age of t i me ? Ear l i er ps yc hol ogi s t s
t hought so. Tho r ndi k e ( 1 91 4) , for e x a mpl e , b e l i e v e d t hat me mo r i e s got we a k e r
t hr ough di s us e. Wh e n ps yc hol ogi s t s c a me t o under s t and t he ef f ect of i nt er f er ence
on me mor y , t he y b e g a n t o doubt t hat t he y n e e d e d de c a y t o e xpl ai n me mo r y l osses.
Mc Ge o c h ( 1932) , for e x a mpl e , sai d, " T i me , i n and of i tsel f, doe s not hi ng . " Ma ny
moder n ps yc hol ogi s t s b e l i e v e t hat r et r oact i ve and pr oac t i ve i nt er f er enc e are suffi-
ci ent t o ac c ount for al l of t he f or get t i ng at t r i but ed t o de c ay . T h e i s s ue, ho we v e r , i s
still i n doubt , as Hi nt z ma n ( 1978) poi nt s out .
Ho w can we r e duc e t he ef f ect s of i nt er f er enc e? Our mai n we a p o ns agai nst i t
are overlearning and reviewing.
Suppos e t hat i t wo u l d t ake y o u 1 0 hour s of s t udy t o l ear n a t opi c we l l e no ug h
t o score 100 pe r c e nt on a qui z g i v e n i mme di a t e l y after st udy. I f y o u s t udi ed 15
hours, we wo u l d say t hat y o u had put i n 50 pe r c e nt ov e r l e ar ni ng, and i f y o u s t udi ed
20 hour s, 100 pe r c e nt over l ear ni ng. T h e ef f ect of ov e r l e ar ni ng i s t o r e duc e f orget -
ti ng. Kr e ug e r ( 1929) s h o we d t hat i f mat er i al wa s ov e r l e a r ne d by 50 pe r c e nt or 100
per cent , i t wa s bet t er r e c a l l e d ov e r t he next we e k or t wo t han i f i t wa s not over -
l ear ned. Fur t her , e v e n after a mont h, t he subj ect s s how a 20 pe r c e nt savi ngs score
wi t h over l ear ni ng, whi l e wi t hout it, t he y s ho w none .
Re v i e wi n g i nf or mat i on al so pr ot ect s i t agai nst i nt er f er enc e ( Unde r wo o d, 1964).
Th e mor e f r e que nt l y we r ef er t o i nf ormat i on, t he mor e l i ke l y we are t o ret ai n it.
Te l e pho ne numbe r s we cal l f r equent l y s ur vi ve i nt er f er enc e f rom t he ma ny ot her
number s we ma y di al i n a t ypi cal we e k . Cl e ar l y, i f s t udent s wo u l d r e v i e w t he
course mat eri al f r e que nt l y dur i ng t he t er m, t hey c oul d av oi d t hat dr eadf ul ques t i on,
" Whe r e ha v e I he a r d a bout t hat b e f o r e ? " t hat so of t en c ome s up dur i ng f i nal exams .
Summary: Storage
1. Muc h of our f or get t i ng can be at t r i but ed t o i nt er f er enc e f rom ot her l ear ni ng.
2. Wh e n t hi ngs l e a r ne d ear l i er i nt er f er e wi t h me mo r y for t hi ngs l e a r ne d l at er, we
speak of pr oac t i ve i nt er f er enc e.
3. Wh e n t hi ngs l e a r ne d l at er i nt er f er e wi t h me mo r y for t hi ngs l e a r ne d earl i er, we
speak of r et r oact i ve i nt er f er enc e.
4. T h e ef f ect s of i nt er f er enc e can be r e duc e d t hr ough ov e r l e ar ni ng and r e v i e w.
Encoding
At one t i me, ps yc hol ogi s t s b e l i e v e d t hat we c oul d t ransf er i nf or mat i on i nt o
l ong-t erm me mo r y s i mpl y by r ehear s i ng it. No w t he y r e c og ni z e t hat i n or der t o fix
an i t em i n l ong- t er m me mor y , we mus t do s ome t hi ng mor e c ompl i c a t e d t han j us t
r e pe at i ng i t ov e r and over . We mus t r e wor k t he i t em or el abor at e on i t by as ki ng
ques t i ons about it, ma k i ng associ at i ons, cr eat i ng i ma ge s , etc. Si mpl e r ehear sal
whi c h wi l l k e e p an i t em i n short - t erm me mo r y i s c al l e d " ma i nt e na nc e r ehear s al . "
Rehear s al wi t h r e wo r k i ng and el abor at i on i s c al l e d " e l a bor a t i v e r ehear s al " ( Cr ai k
and Wat ki ns , 1 973) .
I n t hi s s ec t i on, 1 . we wi l l de s c r i be t he e v i d e nc e t hat ma i nt e na nc e rehearsal
i sn' t suf f i ci ent t o put i nf or mat i on i nt o l ong- t er m me mor y , and 2. we wi l l di scuss t he
pr oc e s s e s wh i c h do he l p t o fix i nf ormat i on i n l ong- t er m me mor y .
Th e r e i s a di f f i cul t y i n s ho wi ng t hat s i mpl e r epet i t i on i sn' t suf f i ci ent t o fix
i nf or mat i on i n l ong- t er m me mor y . T h e di f f i cul t y l i es i n get t i ng p e o p l e t o do r epe-
t i t i on wi t hout al so el abor at i ng. I f subj ect s s us pec t t hat t he y ma y be t es t ed on wha t
t he y are r epeat i ng, t he y ma y al mos t aut omat i cal l y do wha t e v e r t he y us ual l y do t hat
he l ps t o put t he mat er i al i nt o L T M, s uc h as f orm i mages or ma k e associ at i ons. Cr ai k
and Wat ki ns ( 1973) we r e abl e t o de v i s e a task i n whi c h t he subj ect s appar ent l y don' t
el abor at e on wha t t he y are r ehear s i ng. T h e subj ect s we r e a s ke d t o l i st en t o a l i st of
wor ds , si mi l ar t o t hat s h o wn i n t he l ef t - hand c ol umn of Ta b l e 5. T h e wor ds we r e
Tabl e 5. Crai k and Wat ki ns' Task
Wo r d Li s t Re a d Ta r g e t Wo r d Re he a r s e d
t o Subj e c t b y Subj e c t
1. daught er
2. oi l
3. ri f l e
4. gar den ga r de n
5. grai n gr ai n
6. t abl e grai n
7. f oot bal l grai n
8. anc hor grai n
9. gi raffe gi raf f e
10. har p gi raf f e
1 1 . l ake gi raf f e
1 2. bi k e gi raf f e
1 3. pur s e gi raf f e
1 4. mi l k gi raf f e
1 5. i s s ue gi raf f e
1 6. s ha do w gi raf f e
1 7. chai r gi raf f e
18. nai l gi raf f e
19. j ob gi raf f e
20. t ri p gi raf f e
2 1 . e l b o w gi raf f e
From Craik and Watki ns, " The Rol e of Rehearsal in Short-term Memory, " in the Journal of Verbal
Learning and Verbal Behavior, 12, 1973. Reprinted by permission of the authors.
r ead t o t he m one at a t i me. T h e s ubj ect s ' t ask wa s t o r epor t t he l ast wo r d i n t he l i st
whi c h b e g a n wi t h t he l et t er " G" . To do t hi s, t he subj ect s wa i t e d for a wor d be g i n-
ni ng wi t h G. Wh e n a t ar get wo r d wa s pr e s e nt e d, t he subj ect s r e he ar s e d i t ( si nce i t
mi ght be t he l ast one) unt i l anot her t arget wor d, i f any, a ppe a r e d ( see t he r i ght - hand
c ol umn i n Ta b l e 5). Wh e n t he n e w t arget wo r d appe ar e d, i t r e pl a c e d t he ol d one as
t he wo r d b e i n g r ehear s ed. Fr o m t he s ubj ect s ' poi nt of v i e w, t her e wa s no poi nt i n
put t i ng t he ol d t ar get wor ds i nt o l ong- t er m me mor y , s i nce t hei r task wa s t o r epor t
onl y t he c ur r ent t arget . Not i c e that by v ar y i ng t he s pac i ng b e t we e n t arget wor ds
f rom z e r o t o t we l v e wor ds , t he e xpe r i me nt e r s we r e a bl e t o cont rol t he amount of
rehearsal g i v e n t o e a c h wor d.
Ho we v e r , after t he subj ect s had wo r k e d t hr ough a numb e r of wo r d l i sts l i ke that
s hown i n Ta b l e 5, t he exper i ment er s une x pe c t e dl y a s ke d t he m t o recal l as ma ny
wor ds as pos s i bl e f rom al l t he l i sts. T h e cri t i cal f i ndi ng wa s t hat wor ds whi c h we r e
r ehear s ed for a l ong t i me, as dur i ng a 1 2- wor d i nt er val , we r e n' t r e me mb e r e d any
bet t er t han wor ds whi c h we r e r e he ar s e d for a short t i me , as dur i ng a z er o- wor d
i nt erval . Ma i nt e na nc e r ehear sal a ppe a r e d t o ha v e no ef f ect i n f i xi ng i nf or mat i on i n
l ong- t er m memor y. Ot he r s t udi es by Cr ai k and Wat ki ns ( 1 973, Ex pe r i me nt II) and
Jac oby ( 1974) al so s uppor t t hi s c onc l us i on.
We have t aken t he t r oubl e t o e mpha s i z e t hi s poi nt b e c a u s e i t i s of c ons i de r abl e
pract i cal i mpor t ance. S o me st udent s s pe nd a gr eat deal of effort on ma i nt e na nc e
rehearsal of t hei r l es s ons i n t he mi s t aken b e l i e f t hat i t wi l l fix i nf or mat i on i n t hei r
memor y. Th e s e st udent s wo u l d do far bet t er by us i ng t he e nc o di ng pr oc e dur e s
des c r i bed be l o w.
Elaboration
I s ugge s t e d a b o v e t hat i n or der t o get i nf or mat i on i nt o l ong- t er m me mor y , we
mus t el abor at e it. Ho we v e r , I di dn' t say v e r y s pec i f i c al l y wha t el abor at i on i s. Per -
haps t he be s t wa y t o unde r s t and el abor at i on i s t o t hi nk of i t as a pr oc es s t hat f orms
c onne c t i ons e i t he r wi t hi n t he mat eri al t o be l ear ned, or b e t we e n t he mat er i al t o
be l ear ned and ot her t hi ngs we al r eady know. T h e mor e c onnec t i ons t he mat eri al
has, t he mor e l i ke l y we are t o be abl e t o r e me mb e r it. We mi ght t hi nk of an
el abor at ed me mo r y as a sat chel wi t h l ot s of handl e s . T h e mor e handl e s i t has, t he
easi er i t i s t o ge t hol d of.
I n t he f ol l owi ng sect i ons I wi l l de s c r i be s ome t e c hni que s for el abor at i ng
memor i es .
Inputs and Representations. I ma g i ne t hat y ou are at a par t y and t hat y ou are
be i ng i nt r oduc e d t o s ome one . At t hat mo me n t y o u are e x po s e d t o a gr eat deal of
i nf ormat i on al l at onc e . Mu c h of t he i nf or mat i on c ome s f rom t he out s i de, t hr ough
sensory c hanne l s . Th e r e i s vi s ual i nf or mat i ont he a ppe a r a nc e of t he per s on' s f ace
and cl ot hi ng, and t he c onf us e d part y s c e ne ar ound hi m. Th e r e i s audi t or y
i nf or mat i ont he s ound of t he per s on' s voi c e , t he v o i c e of y our host i nt r oduc i ng
hi m, and noi s es i n t he r oom. Th e r e i s i nf or mat i on f rom t he mus c l e s e n s e s y o u
have b e e n s t andi ng for hour s and wo u l d v e r y mu c h l i ke t o si t d o wn a n d t her e i s
osmi c or s mel l i nf or mat i ona f ai nt f ragrance of pe r f ume and t obac c o.
I n addi t i on t o t hi s s ens or y i nf ormat i on, t her e i s s e mant i c i nf or mat i ont hat i s,
meani ngs y ou de r i v e f rom t he s ens or y i nf ormat i on t hat are not t he ms e l v e s s ens or y
i n character. For e x a mpl e , your host says, " Me e t my son, t he doc t or . " Lat er , e v e n
t hough you can' t r e me mb e r t he s ens or y i nf or mat i ont he i nf l ect i ons of t he host ' s
voi c e or hi s part i cul ar wo r d i n g y o u still r e me mb e r t he me a ni ng , t hat he has a son
and t he son i s a doct or. Si mi l ar l y, t he s ens or y i nf or mat i on of a f ai nt f ragrance may
be pr oc es s ed t o pr oduc e a ques t i on of me a ni ng far mor e c o mpl e x t han t he s cent
whi c h t r i gger ed i t: " Wh y i s t hi s g uy we a r i ng Cha ne l # 5 ? "
Cor r e s pondi ng t o t he var i ous f orms of i nf or mat i on i nput t her e are f orms of
i nternal r epr es ent at i on. Re me mb e r i n g a vi sual i ma g e of a f ace i s mu c h l i ke l ooki ng
at a f ace. Us ual l y, we c an t el l t he di f f er ence b e t we e n a s ens or y i ma g e and a me mo r y
i mage, but Pe r ky ( 1910) s h o we d t hat pe o pl e can be f ool ed i nt o a c c e pt i ng a real
external pi ct ur e as s ome t hi ng t he y are i magi ni ng. Si mi l ar l y, r e me mb e r i ng an audi -
tory i mage of a f r i end' s v o i c e i s muc h l i ke l i s t eni ng t o a real v oi c e .
A part i cul ar f orm of i nt ernal r epr es ent at i on, e. g. , a vi s ual i mage , i s t ypi cal l y
bet t er for r e me mb e r i ng s ome ki nds of i nf ormat i on t han for r e me mb e r i ng ot her
ki nds . Vi s ual i mage s are good for r e me mb e r i ng pi c t ur es b ut not for r e me mbe r i ng
t unes . Audi t or y i mage s are good for t unes but t er r i bl e for sunset s.
Representation and Elaboration. On e obv i ous wa y to el abor at e on a me s s a g e
i s t o us e mor e t han one f orm of r epr es ent at i on t o c o de it. Wh e n r eadi ng, for exam-
pl e, we mi ght cons t r uct vi s ual i mages of t he pe o pl e and act i ons de s c r i be d i n t he
t ext i n addi t i on t o our us ual s emant i c c odi ng of t he mat er i al . Th e r e i s a great deal
of e v i de nc e demons t r at i ng t hat i ma ge r y i s a powe r f ul me mo r y ai d. L e v i n ( 1973)
t aught f our t h- gr ade c hi l dr e n t o i mage what t he y we r e r e a di ng and s h o we d that i t
he l pe d t he m t o r e me mb e r t he mat eri al . Pai vi o and Cs a po ( 1973) s h o we d that i t i s
easi er t o l ear n a l i st of wor ds s uc h as " al l i gat or " and " a c c o r di a n" wh i c h are eas y t o
i mage t han wor ds s uc h as " a bi l i t y " and " af t er l i f e" whi c h are har d t o i ma g e . I n t he
next chapt er , we wi l l de s c r i be a numbe r of me mo r y t e c hni que s t hat d e p e n d on
vi sual i mager y.
Whi l e i ma g e r y can be a v e r y powe r f ul me mo r y ai d, not e v e r y sort of i ma g e i s
hel pf ul . To he l p t he m l ear n a l i st of wo r d pai rs, Bo we r ( 1972) as ke d hi s subj ect s t o
form ei t her of t wo ki nds of i mage s : i nt er act i ng i mage s and s epar at ed i mage s . To
form an i nt er act i ng i ma g e for t he pai r " do g - b i c y c l e " t he subj ect s mi ght pi c t ur e a
do g r i di ng a bi c y c l e . To f orm a s epar at ed i mage, t he y wo u l d pi c t ur e a do g on t he
l ef t and a b i c y c l e on t he ri ght i n s uc h a wa y t hat t he t wo obj ect s di dn' t i nt eract .
Bo we r f ound t hat wi t h i nt er act i ve i ma ge s , subj ect s g i v e n t he first hal f of eac h pai r
c oul d r e me mb e r 71 pe r c e nt of t he pai rs. Wi t h s epar at ed i ma ge s , t hey r e me mb e r e d
onl y 46 p e r c e n t n o mor e t han subj ect s wh o s i mpl y r e pe a t e d t he pai rs wi t hout
i magi ng. I nt er ac t i ve i ma ge s , t hat i s, i mage s whi c h f orm c onne c t i ons , are a usef ul
me mo r y ai d. Se par at e d i mage s are not.
El abor at i on i s pos s i bl e wi t hi n a s i ngl e f orm of r epr es ent at i on b e c a us e we can
us e t hat f orm i n mor e t han one wa y t o c ode a me s s age . Suppo s e , for e x a mpl e , t hat
we wa nt e d t o f or m an i ma g e for an abst ract wo r d l i ke " a g r e e me nt . " We mi g ht
pi c t ur e t wo p e o p l e s haki ng hands , or we mi ght pi c t ur e a pa pe r ma r ke d " a gr e e -
me nt , " or we mi g ht pi c t ur e t wo pe o pl e s haki ng hands and e x c ha ng i ng a pa pe r
mar ke d " a g r e e me n t . "
Elaborating by Answering Questions. Suppos e t hat y ou are hal f way t hr ough a
my s t e r y st ory a nd a f r i end wh o has al r eady r ead i t be g i ns t o harass y o u wi t h
ques t i ons s uc h as:
Di d y ou not i c e h o w t he Count e s s wa s dr e s s e d after t he mur de r ?
Di d y o u f i gur e out wh y t he but l er wa l k e d wi t h a l i mp?
Di d y ou wo n d e r wh y Si r Au b r e y al way s wo r e a scarf ?
As s u mi ng t hat y ou rest rai n t he i mpul s e t o t hr ow t he bo o k at y our f ri end, y ou
wi l l pr oba bl y c ha ng e t he wa y y ou r epr es ent t he st ory t o y our s e l f as y ou r ead. No w
y ou wi l l not i c e h o w p e o p l e are dr e s s e d and h o w t he but l e r wa l ks , and t ry t o f i nd
c onnec t i ons b e t we e n t he s e t hi ngs and t he mur der . T h e ques t i ons , t hen, wi l l c aus e
y ou t o el abor at e y our r epr es ent at i on.
Cr ai k and Tu l v i n g ( 1 975) pe r f or me d an e x pe r i me nt t o f i nd out h o w el abor a-
t i ons i nduc e d by ques t i ons wo u l d i nf l uenc e me mor y . T h e y b e l i e v e d t hat el abo-
rati ons i nv ol v i ng s emant i c c ode s wo u l d i mpr ov e me mo r y mor e t han el abor at i on of
vi sual or audi t or y c ode s . T h e s ubj ect s ' t ask wa s t o a ns we r ques t i ons about a se-
q ue nc e of wor ds . T h e subj ect s wo u l d be g i v e n a que s t i on s uc h as, " I s t he wor d i n
capi t al l e t t e r s ? " be f or e e a c h wor d. T h e y a ns we r e d " y e s " or " n o " and we nt on t o t he
next ques t i on. Ty pi c a l ques t i ons and r es pons es are s ho wn i n Ta b l e 6.
T h e t y pe f ac e a nd r hy me ques t i ons mi g ht be e x pe c t e d t o i nduc e vi sual and
audi t or y el abor at i on r e s pe c t i ve l y, and t he c at egor y and s e nt e nc e ques t i ons mi g ht
be e x pe c t e d t o i nduc e s emant i c el abor at i on. Af t er t he subj ect s wo r k e d t hr ough 40
que s t i on- wor d pai rs, t he y we r e une x pe c t e dl y t est ed. T h e t est r e qui r e d t he subj ect s
L e v e l of
pr oc e s s i ng Que s t i on Ye s No
Vi s ual I s t he wor d i n capi t al l et t er s? T A B L E t abl e
Audi t or y Do e s t he wor d r hy me wi t h WE I G H T ? crat e MA R K E T
Ca t e g or y Is t he wor d a t ype of f i sh? S HA R K he a v e n
Se nt e nc e Wo u l d t he wor d fit t he s e nt e nc e : f r i end C L O U D
" He me t a i n t he s t r eet ? "
From Craik and Tul vi ng, " Dept h of Processing and the Retention of Words in Epi sodi c Memory, " in the
Journal of Experimental Psychology, 1 04, 1 975. Copyri ght 1975 by the Ameri can Psychol ogi cal Associa-
tion. Reprinted by permission.
Tabl e 7. Percent of Wor ds Correct l y Identified i n the Crai k and Tul vi ng Experiment
Que s t i on T y p e : Ty p e f a c e Rh y me Ca t e g or y Se nt e nc e
Pe r c e nt Cor r ec t : 16 57 78 89
t o e xami ne a l i st c ons i s t i ng of t he ori gi nal wor ds mi x e d wi t h 40 n e w ones and t o
c hec k t he wor ds t he y had s e e n bef or e.
Ta bl e 7 s hows t hat t he s e nt e nc e and c at egor y ques t i ons l e d t o bet t er r ec ogni -
ti on t han t he r hy me and t y pe f ac e ques t i ons . Thi s r esul t i s c ons i s t ent wi t h Cr ai k and
Tul vi ng' s b e l i e f t hat s emant i c el abor at i on wo u l d ai d me mo r y mor e t han vi sual or
audi t ory el abor at i on.
Noticing Categories. As we di s c us s e d earl i er, cat egor i es are a v e r y powe r f ul
ret ri eval c ue . I f we not i c e cat egor i es i n t he mat eri al we are l ear ni ng, we can
i ncrease our c ha nc e s of r e me mb e r i ng it.
Jacoby ( 1974) s h o we d t hi s by ar r angi ng a si t uat i on i n wh i c h one gr oup of
subj ect s was mor e l i ke l y t o not i c e cat egor i es i n a l i st t han anot her . He s h o we d bot h
groups a l ong l i st of wor ds whi c h c ont ai ned s uc h c at egor i es as bi r ds , v e g e t a bl e s ,
etc. As eac h wo r d wa s s ho wn, Gr o u p 1 wa s as ke d t o say whe t he r i t wa s a me mb e r
of t he s ame c at egor y as t he i mme di a t e l y pr e c e di ng wor d. Gr o u p 2 was as ke d t o say
whe t he r i t wa s i n t he s ame c at egor y as any pr e c e di ng wor d. Th u s , i f wor ds l i ke
" par r ot " and " f i nc h" oc c ur r e d i n t he l i st f i ve wor ds apart , we wo u l d e x pe c t t hat
Gr oup 2 wo u l d be mor e l i ke l y t o not i c e t he c at egor y " b i r d s " t han wo u l d Gr o up 1 .
On a surpri se r ecal l t est , Gr o u p 2 r e me mb e r e d mu c h mor e t han Gr o u p 1. T h e
l earner i s we l l a dv i s e d t o not i c e c at egor y rel at i ons i n t he mat er i al b e i n g l ear ned.
Hierarchies. Mu c h of t he i nf ormat i on we deal wi t h e v e r y day i s or gani z ed i n
cat egori es, and f r e que nt l y t hos e cat egor i es are t he ms e l v e s or gani z e d i n hi er-
archi es. For e x a mpl e , mi ner al s can be ar r anged i n a hi er ar c hi c al l y or gani z ed set of
cat egori es as s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 7. We k no w t hat at t ent i on t o cat egor i es can ai d
l earni ng. Wha t about at t ent i on t o hi er ar chi cal or gani z at i on? Bo we r , Cl ar k, Le s g ol d,
and Wi nz e nz ( 1969) ha v e s t udi e d j us t s uc h hi er ar c hi c al l y or gani z e d mat eri al . I n
fact, Fi gur e 7 i s one of t he e i ght hi er ar c hi es t he y s t udi ed. T h e subj ect s i n t hei r
exper i ment l e a r ne d ei t her by s e e i ng t he c ompl e t e hi er ar c hy al l at onc e on eac h of
t he four tri al s ( whol e met hod) or by s e e i ng l e v e l 1 and 2 of t he hi er ar c hy on trial 1;
l evel s 1 , 2, and 3 on tri al 2; a nd al l f our l e v e l s on tri al s 3 and 4 ( pr ogr es s i ve met hod) .
Furt her, i n s ome cas es t he or gani zat i on of t he mat er i al wa s meani ngf ul as i n
Fi gur e 7, and i n ot hers i t wa s r andom, as i n Ta b l e 8.
Meani ngf ul or gani zat i on ma de a b i g di f f er enc e i n t he numb e r of wor ds re-
cal l ed. On t he first t ri al , subj ect s i n t he me ani ngf ul c ondi t i on r e me mb e r e d mor e
Tabl e 6. Typi cal Quest i ons and Responses i n t he Crai k and Tul vi ng Experiment
LEVEL
Tabl e 8. Random Organi zat i on of Mi neral Informati on
S T O N E S ME T A L S
Pr ec i ous Al l oy s Rar e Ma s onr y C o mmo n
l i me s t one r uby c oppe r e me r a l d i ron
br onz e s apphi r e mar bl e s i l ver di a mond
a l umi num gr ani t e st eel l e ad sl at e
pl at i num brass gol d
t han t hr ee t i mes as ma ny wor ds as t hos e i n t he r andom c ondi t i on. Pe r f or manc e of
subj ect s i n t he me ani ngf ul c ondi t i on wa s per f ec t by t he t hi rd t ri al , whi l e subj ect s
i n t he r andom c ondi t i on sti l l k n e w l ess t han hal f of t he wor ds on t he t hi rd tri al .
Fur t her , l ear ni ng t he t op t hr ee l e v e l s of t he hi er ar c hy first, as i n t he pr ogr e s s i ve
me t hod, h e l p e d subj ect s t o l ear n t he wor ds on t he f ourt h l e v e l . On t hei r fi rst
e xpos ur e t o t he wor ds on t he f ourt h l e v e l , subj ect s us i ng t he wh o l e me t ho d l e ar ne d
60 pe r c e nt of t he wor ds , whi l e subj ect s us i ng t he pr ogr e s s i v e me t ho d l e a r ne d 77
per c ent . At t e ndi ng t o t he hi er ar chi cal or gani zat i on of t he mat er i al t o be l e ar ne d i s
cl ear l y a powe r f ul l e ar ni ng ai d.
Use of Examples. Ex a mpl e s are t ypi c al l y at t he v e r y l o we s t l e v e l s i n t he hi erar-
chi cal st ruct ure of a t ext or a l ect ur e. None t he l e s s , t he y c an be v e r y i mpor t ant for
unde r s t a ndi ng t he i nf or mat i on pr e s e nt e d. Pol l c hi k ( 1 975) as ke d subj ect s t o r ead a
1 00- s ent ence t ext de s c r i bi ng s e v e n ps yc hol ogi c al de f e ns e me c ha ni s ms . I n addi -
t i on, he g a v e s o me of t he subj ect s t wo one - s e nt e nc e e x a mpl e s i l l ust r at i ng e a c h of
t he me c ha ni s ms . To t est t hei r k n o wl e d g e of t he de f e ns e me c ha ni s ms , subj ect s we r e
as ked t o i dent i f y t he me c ha ni s m i nv ol v e d i n e a c h of 20 cas es . Subj ec t s wh o had had
e xampl e s as par t of t hei r i nst r uct i on cor r ect l y i dent i f i ed 16. 4 of t he 20 cases. Sub-
j ect s wh o had not s e e n t he e x a mpl e s as part of t hei r i nst r uct i on i dent i f i ed onl y 9.9
of t he cas es . Ex a mpl e s , t hen, are an i mpor t ant ai d t o i nst r uct i on.
Summary: Encodi ng
1. Ma i nt e na nc e r ehear sal i sn' t suf f i ci ent t o put i nf or mat i on i nt o l ong- t er m me mor y .
El abor at i ve r ehear s al i s nec es s ar y.
2. Th e r e are s ever al di st i nct me mo r y c ode s : audi t or y, vi s ual , s emant i c, etc.
3. El abor at i ve r ehear s al ma y i nv ol v e :
us e of ext ra c ode s , s uc h as i mager y
a ns we r i ng ques t i ons
not i c i ng c at egor i es
at t endi ng to hi er ar chi cal st ruct ure
s e e i ng pr i nc i pl es i l l ust rat ed i n e xampl e s
CONTROLLI NG YOUR OWN LEARNING PROCESS
Up t o t hi s poi nt we ha v e di s c us s e d t he pr oc es s es of e nc odi ng , st orage, and
ret ri eval separat el y. I n t hi s sect i on, we wi l l de s c r i be h o w p e o p l e can us e one of
t hes e pr oc es s es t o cont rol anot her. For e xampl e , we wi l l de s c r i be h o w r et r i eval can
prof i t abl y be us e d t o cont rol i nf ormat i on about s uc c es s and f ai l ure at e nc odi ng.
Wh e n you are s t udyi ng, y ou can ma k e dec i s i ons about h o w t o s pe nd your s t udy
t i me. I f you are l ucky, y ou can c hoos e t o s pr ead t he effort y o u s pe nd on a s ubj ect
out over we e k s or mont hs . I f y ou aren' t l ucky, y ou ma y f i nd y our s e l f c r a mmi ng al l
your effort i nt o t he l ast f e w hour s avai l abl e be f or e an e xam or s ome ot her de adl i ne .
You can c hoos e t o e mp l o y any of a wi d e var i et y of st rat egi es i n l ear ni ng, e. g. , y ou
can e nc ode i nf or mat i on i n ma ny wa y s . You ma y c hoos e t o s pe nd 100 pe r c e nt of your
st udy t i me i n r e a di ng and r e r e adi ng t he mat eri al y ou are t r yi ng t o l ear n, or y ou ma y
choos e t o s pe nd s ome of your t i me t es t i ng yoursel f . Your dec i s i ons about h o w t o
s pend your t i me he l p de t e r mi ne t he ef f i c i enc y of your l ear ni ng.
I n gener al , s pr e adi ng y our s t udy effort out over a pe r i od of t i me i s mor e effi-
ci ent t han c r ammi ng. Tha t i s, i f y ou di st r i but e your effort, y ou c an l ear n a t opi c i n
l ess t i me t han wi t h ma s s e d pr act i ce. Fi g ur e 8 s hows Ly on' s ( 1 91 4) resul t s compar -
i ng mas s ed and di s t r i but ed pr act i ce for tasks whi c h var y i n di f f i cul t y. T h e advan-
t age of di s t r i but ed pr act i ce i nc r eas es as t he t ask b e c o me s mor e di f f i cul t .
Number of syl l abl es in list
Figure 8. Massed Versus Distributed Practi ce in Relation to Length of List Learned
Reprinted from Foundations of Psychology, Boring, E. G., Langfeld, H. S., and
Wel d, H. P. By permission of John Wi l ey and Sons, 1948.
A st udy by Tho r ndy k e and St asz (1980) on ma p l ear ni ng i l l ust rat es t he i mpor -
t ance of st rat egy s el ec t i on. T h e subj ect s we r e g i v e n si x t wo- mi nut e s t udy pe r i ods
i n whi c h t o l ear n pl ac e na me s and spat i al i nf or mat i on f rom a ma p. Af t er e a c h s t udy
peri od, t hey d r e w and l a be l e d as mu c h of t he ma p as t he y c oul d r e me mbe r . T h e
subj ects var i ed c ons i de r abl y i n t hei r s uc c es s i n t hi s l ear ni ng t ask and i n t he strate-
gi es t hey us e d i n per f or mi ng it. T h e aut hors f ound i mpor t ant di f f er ences i n t he wa y
good and poor l ear ner s a ppr oa c he d t he task. Fi rst , t he y f ound t hat good l ear ner s
e mpl oy e d bet t er st rat egi es for e nc o di ng spat i al i nf or mat i on. T h e y f r e que nt l y us e d
vi sual i mager y, pat t ern e nc o di ng (e. g. , " I t l ooks l i ke a ho us e " ) , and r el at i onal
e nc o di ng (e. g. , " T h o s e t wo st reet s are par al l el " ) . Se c o nd, t he good l ear ner s we r e
mor e ef f ect i ve i n us i ng s el f - eval uat i on t o cont rol t hei r l ear ni ng. T h e good l ear ner s
we r e mor e l i ke l y t han t he poor l ear ner s t o e val uat e t he ms e l v e s wh e r e t hei r knowl -
e dg e wa s we a k . T h e poor l ear ner s we r e mor e l i ke l y t o s pe nd t i me conf i r mi ng wha t
t hey di d know. I n e v a l ua t i ng t he ms e l v e s , t he g ood l ear ner s we r e mor e accur at e
(96 pe r c e nt correct ) t han t he poor l ear ner s (82 pe r c e nt correct ) . Fur t her , wh e n t he
good l ear ner s di s c ov e r e d t hat t he y di dn' t k no w s ome t hi ng, t he y we r e mor e l i kel y
t o t ake i mme di a t e act i on t o l ear n i t (95 per cent ) t han we r e t he poor l earners
( 75 per c ent ) . T h e s e t hr ee di f f er ences t aken t oget her a dd up t o a v e r y c ons i der abl e
di f f er ence i n t he ef f ec t i venes s wi t h wh i c h good and poor l ear ner s us e self-
eval uat i on t o cont r ol l ear ni ng.
I n a s e c ond s t udy, Tho r ndy k e and St asz (1980) s h o we d t hat t he spat i al c odi ng
and s el f - eval uat i on st r at egi es wh i c h t he good l ear ner s us e c oul d be t aught t o ot her
subj ect s and t hat do i ng s o ma r ke dl y i mpr ov e d t he s ubj ect s ' ma p l e ar ni ng per -
f or mance.
T h e Tho r nd y k e and St asz s t udy s hows t hat s el f - eval uat i on i s i mpor t ant , but
h o w mu c h of y our s t udy t i me , i f any, s houl d y o u de v ot e t o t es t i ng your s el f ? Gat e s
( 1 91 7) i nve s t i gat e d t hi s que s t i on and c a me up wi t h a sur pr i si ng ans we r . Hi s r esul t s,
s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 9, i ndi c at e t hat pe o pl e ma y l ear n be s t wh e n t he y s pe nd up t o 80
pe r c e nt of t hei r s t udy t i me i n t es t i ng t he ms e l v e s .
20 -
10 -
_] I I I I
0 20 40 60 80
Percent age of study time
spent in self-recitation
Figure 9. Effects on Recal l of Spendi ng Vari ous Proporti ons of Study Ti me in
Attempti ng Retrieval Rather Than in Silent Study, for Tests Gi ven Immedi atel y After
Study From Introduction to Psychology, Seventh Edition, edited by E. R. Hilgard,
R. L. Atkinson, and R. C. Atkinson. By permission of Harcourt Brace
Jovanovi ch, Inc., 1 979.
Summary: Cont rol of Learning Process
Pe o pl e c an i nf l ue nc e t hei r o wn l ear ni ng pr oc es s es and ha v e a great deal t o gai n
by doi ng so. By J. c hoos i ng t o di st r i but e pr act i ce, 2. s e l e c t i ng appr opr i at e l ear ni ng
st rat egi es, and 3. us i ng eval uat i on of pr ogr es s t o cont r ol st udy, pe o pl e can si gni f i -
cant l y i ncr eas e t hei r l e ar ni ng ef f ec t i venes s .
CONCLUSI ON
Bas i c r es ear c h on huma n me mo r y pr ovi des us wi t h a great deal of usef ul
i nf ormat i on. I t i ndi cat es t he i mpor t anc e of c hunk i ng i n us i ng our l i mi t e d capaci t y
short -t erm me mo r i e s ef f ect i vel y. Fur t her , i t pr ov i de s a n u mb e r of g ui di ng pri nci -
pl es for t he ef f i ci ent us e of l ong- t er m me mor y . For e x a mpl e , i t has s hown t he
i mpor t anc e of el abor at i on for l ear ni ng, t he v a l ue of ov e r l e ar ni ng and r ehear sal for
mai nt ai ni ng i nf ormat i on i n st orage, and t he us ef ul nes s of c u e i ng i n r ecal l . I n addi -
t i on, r es ear c h r eveal s t hat pe o pl e can b e c o me mor e ef f ec t i ve l ear ner s i f t hey l ear n
t o moni t or and cont rol t hei r o wn l ear ni ng pr oc e s s e s .
REFERENCES
Bar nes , J. M. , and Unde r wo o d, B. J. " ' F a t e ' " of Fi rst - l i st As s oc i at i ons i n Tr ans f er
The or y . " Journal of Experimental Psychology, 58, 97- 1 05, 1 961 .
Bousf i el d, W. A. " T h e Oc c ur r e nc e of Cl us t e r i ng i n t he Re c a l l of Ra ndoml y
Ar r anged As s oc i at e s . " Journal of General Psychology, 49, 229-240, 1 953.
Bowe r , G. H. " Me nt a l I ma g e r y and As s oc i at i ve Le a r ni ng . " In Cognition i n Learn-
ing and Memory, e di t e d by L. W. Gr e g g . Ne w Yor k: Wi l e y , 1 972.
Bowe r , G. H. , Cl ar k, M. C. , Le s g o l d, A. M. , and Wi nz e nz , D. " Hi e r a r c hi c a l Ret r i eval
Sc he me s in Re c al l of Ca t e g or i z e d Wo r d Li s t s . " Journal of Verbal Learning and
Verbal Behavior, 8, 323- 343, 1 969.
Bowe r , G. H. , and Spr i ngs t on, F. " Pa us e s as Re c o di ng Poi nt s i n Le t t e r Se r i e s . "
Journal of Experimental Psychology, 83, 421 - 430, 1 970.
Brooks, L. R. " Spat i al and Ve r ba l Co mpo ne nt s of t he Ac t of Re c a l l . " Canadian
Journal of Psychology, 22, 349, 368, 1968.
Br own, R., and Mc Ne i l l , D. " T h e ' Ti p of t he To n g u e ' Ph e n o me n o n . " Journal of
Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 5, 325- 337, 1966.
Burtt, H. E. " An Ex pe r i me nt a l St udy of Ear l y Chi l dho o d Me mo r y : Fi nal Re por t . "
Journal of Genetic Psychology, 58, 435- 439, 1 941 .
Chas e, W. G. , and Er i c s s on, K. A. A Mnemonic System for Digit Span: One Year
Later. Unpub l i s he d report , Ca r ne g i e - Me l l o n Uni ver s i t y, 1 979.
Crai k, F. I . M. , and Tul v i ng , E. " De p t h of Pr oc e s s i ng and t he Re t e nt i on of Wor ds i n
Epi s odi c Me mo r y . " Journal of Experimental Psychology, 104, 268-294, 1 975.
Crai k, F. I . M. , and Wat ki ns , M. J. " T h e Rol e of Rehear s al i n Short - t erm Me mo r y . "
Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 12, 599- 607, 1 973.
Gat es , A. I . " Rec i t at i on as a Fac t or in Me mo r i z i ng . " Archives of Psychology, 40,
1 91 7.
Gr e e nbe r g, R., and Unde r wo o d, B. J. " Re t e nt i on as a Func t i on of St age of Pr ac t i c e. "
Journal of Experimental Psychology, 40, 452- 457, 1950.
Hi nt zman, D. L. The Psychology of Learning and Memory. San Fr anci s co:
W. H. Fr e e ma n, 1 978.
Jacoby, L. L. " T h e Rol e of Me nt a l Cont i gui t y i n Me or y : Regi s t r at i on and Ret r i eval
Ef f ect s. " Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 13, 483-496, 1974.
FIVE.
USING MEMORY EFFECTIVELY
Us ual l y wh e n we t hi nk of me mor y , we t hi nk of i nf or mat i on t hat i s st or ed i ns i de
t he head. I n t hi s c hapt er , we wa nt t o e mpha s i z e that, whi l e s ome of t he i nf ormat i on
avai l abl e t o us i s st or ed i ns i de t he head, mu c h of i t i s st or ed out s i de. Sol vi ng
pract i cal pr obl e ms t ypi c al l y r equi r es us t o us e bot h i nt er nal and ext ernal me mor y .
Our ef f ec t i venes s i n pr act i cal me mo r y tasks i s of t en de t e r mi ne d by our s uc c es s i n
managi ng t he r el at i on b e t we e n i nt ernal and ext ernal me mor y . I f t he a ns we r t o our
pr obl em i s i n a r e f e r e nc e book i n t he l i brary, i t won' t he l p us at al l unl es s we have
suf f i ci ent k n o wl e d g e i n our heads to be abl e to f i nd t he book.
I n t hi s chapt er , we wi l l de s c r i be st rat egi es for us i ng bot h i nt ernal and ext ernal
memor i es ef f ec t i vel y. Fi rst , we wi l l de s c r i be s ever al mne mo ni c t e c hni que s t ha t
is, pr oc edur es for st or i ng i nf or mat i on r api dl y i n i nt ernal l ong- t er m me mo r y a n d
we wi l l pr ov i de pr act i ce exer c i s es i n t hei r us e. Wh e n y o u have mas t er ed t hi s
sect i on, y ou s houl d be abl e at one he ar i ng t o l ear n a l i st of 20 wor ds pr e s e nt e d at
t he rate of one wo r d e v e r y f i ve s ec onds . I n addi t i on, y o u s houl d be abl e t o l earn
f orei gn l a ngua ge v oc a bul a r y at t he rate of one wo r d a mi nut e . We wi l l pl ac e
heavi est e mpha s i s i n t hi s c hapt er on mne mo ni c t e c hni que s . Next , we wi l l di s cus s
the use of ext er nal s our c es of i nf ormat i on, s uc h as l i br ar i es and r ef er enc e books .
Fi nal l y, we wi l l di s c us s not es and r e mi nde r s t ha t i s, s el f - gener at ed ext ernal
memor y ai ds s uc h as l ec t ur e not es , and de s c r i be t hei r us e i n s ol v i ng part i cul ar
memor y pr obl e ms .
MNEMONI C TECHNI QUES: THE NEED
Ext er nal me mo r y ai ds are v e r y usef ul i n a wi d e var i et y of si t uat i ons. The r e are
many pract i cal si t uat i ons, ho we v e r , i n wh i c h i t i s ei t her ne c e s s ar y or ve r y con-
veni ent for us t o ha v e i nf or mat i on st ored i n our me mor i e s .
I magi ne y our s e l f at a cockt ai l part y; y our host st eers y o u t o a gr oup of pe opl e
st andi ng t oget her wh o cor di al l y i nt r oduce t he ms e l v e s . You i mme di a t e l y wh i p out
your pad and pe nc i l and wr i t e d o wn t hei r name s and di s t i ngui s hi ng f eat ures, i n
order t o r e me mb e r t hei r na me s and f aces. Rumor s i mme di a t e l y ci r cl e that y ou are
a. a narcot i cs agent , b. an emi s s ar y f rom t he CI A, or c. a di vor c e l a wy e r l ooki ng for
e v i de nc e . Obv i o us l y , t hi s us e of ext er nal me mo r y doe s not r ef l ect good soci al
manners and i s not e nc our a ge d.
T h e pr evi ous e x a mpl e i s one of t he mos t c o mmo n si t uat i ons r equi r i ng i nt ernal
me mo r y ski l l s. I n soci al and bus i ne s s me e t i ngs , we are e x pe c t e d t o store name- f ac e
c onnec t i ons i nt er nal l y. T h e " Wha t wa s your na me a g a i n? " r out i ne cer t ai nl y i sn' t
f l at t eri ng, and e v e nt ua l l y i t b e c o me s i nsul t i ng. Nume r o us ot her e xampl e s c an be
ci t ed. I n s pe a ki ng a f or ei gn l anguage , mos t of t he v oc a bul a r y and gr ammar r ul es
mus t be st ored i nt er nal l y. As a pract i cal mat t er, one can us e a di ct i onar y onl y rarel y
i n conver s at i on. T h e s ame appl i es t o wr i t i ng. Ef f i c i enc y of wr i t i ng i s great l y
r e duc e d i f y o u mus t c ons ul t t he di ct i onar y f r equent l y t o c he c k s pel l i ng. Al s o, t ypi ng
s pe e d suffers hor r i bl y i f y o u have t o ma ke f r equent r e f e r e nc e t o t he keyboar d. I n
f oot bal l , y o u ha v e t o r e me mb e r t he pl ays , and on t he st age, y o u mus t r e me mbe r
your l i nes . I n ma ny s c hool si t uat i ons, s uch as t est t aki ng, t he t ask i s exact l y that of
st ori ng i nf or mat i on i nt er nal l y.
S o me s t udent s t ake t he v i e w t hat t her e i s no pur pos e i n l ear ni ng i nf ormat i on
c ont ai ned i n t ext books b e c a us e one can al way s l ook i t up. Th e r e are s ome cas es i n
whi c h t hi s v i e w i s j us t i f i ed. We don't wa nt t o me mo r i z e t abl es of l ogar i t hms or
t r i gonomet r i c f unct i ons. Ho we v e r , t her e are ma ny cases i n wh i c h i t i s not j ust i f i ed.
I magi ne vi s i t i ng a doct or wh o has a great me di c al l i brary but does n' t k no w t he
cont ent s . Yo u say, " Do c , I hurt ri ght he r e . " Do c says, " Ri g ht t her e, e h! OK, I ha v e
no i de a wha t t hat me a ns , but I' l l hi t t he me di c a l books r i ght a wa y t o s ee i f I can t urn
anyt hi ng up. I' l l gi v e y o u a cal l i n a f e w we e k s i f we ' r e goi ng t o ne e d any t es t s . "
Fi nal l y, t her e are si t uat i ons i n whi c h ext ernal me mo r y wo u l d be bet t er but we
j us t don' t ha v e pe nc i l and pape r avai l abl e at t he mome nt . I t i s for si t uat i ons l i ke
t hes e t hat we r e c o mme n d us i ng t he s e v e n me mo r y ai ds we are about t o des c r i be,
as we l l as s uc h var i at i ons and c ombi nat i ons of t he m as y o u ma y i nv e nt for your o wn
s peci al ne e ds .
I n t he s ect i ons wh i c h f ol l ow, we wi l l de s c r i be s e v e n t y pe s of mne mo ni c t ech-
ni que s or me mo r y ai ds :
1. ac r onyms and acrost i cs
2. r hy me - ke y s
3. mul t i pl e - ke y s
4. t he me t ho d of l oci
5. t he k e y wo r d me t ho d
6. t he i ma g e - na me t e c hni que , and
7. c hai ni ng.
THE BASIS OF MNEMONI C TECHNIQUE
T h e ef f ec t i venes s of mne mo ni c t e c hni que s d e p e nd s on f our me mo r y pr i nci -
pl es : 1. i nde xi ng, 2. s wi t c hi ng t o an eas i er me mo r y task, 3. c hunki ng , and 4. el abo-
rati on. T h e l ast t hr ee pr i nc i pl es s houl d be f ami l i ar t o y o u f rom r eadi ng Cha pt e r 4.
Swi t c hi ng t o an eas i er me mo r y t ask ref ers t o t he s e que nc e of r et r i eval tasks or der ed
from mos t t o l east di f f i cul t : unc ue d recal l , c ue d recal l , r ec ogni t i on, and savi ngs. T h e
mos t us ual appl i c at i on of t hi s pr i nc i pl e i n mne mo ni c s i s t o c ha ng e an unc ue d r ecal l
task i nt o a c u e d r ecal l task.
I nde xi ng, t he onl y pr i nc i pl e not di s c us s e d i n Cha pt e r 4, i s f ami l i ar t o y ou i n
anot her cont ext . Di c t i onar i e s cont ai n an e nor mous amount of usef ul i nf ormat i on i n
t he f orm of wor ds pai r ed wi t h t hei r def i ni t i ons. Thi s i nf or mat i on wo u l d be ver y
hard t o r et r i eve i f t he wor ds we r e ar r anged at r andom. For t unat el y, di ct i onar i es are
i nde xe d. Tha t i s, t he y are ar r anged i n an or der l y wa y ( al phabet i cal l y) s o t hat we can
qui c kl y f i nd t he wo r d we are i nt er es t ed i n wi t hout an e xhaus t i ve sear ch.
Mor e ge ne r al l y, an i ndex i s any or gani z e d set of c ue s t o i nf ormat i on. I n me m-
ory, an i ndex i s an or ga ni z e d set of c ue s (in t he s ens e of c ue d recal l ) t o i nf ormat i on
i n me mor y . T h e r hy me - k e y me t hod, di s c us s e d be l o w, pr ov i de s an e xc e l l e nt i l l us-
trati on of t he appl i c at i on of i nde xi ng i n mne moni c s .
As y o u r ead about e a c h t e c hni que , try t o i dent i f y t he me mo r y pr i nc i pl es on
whi c h i t r el i es .
Using Memory Effectively 95
Acronyms and Acrosti cs
I f y o u try t o r e me mb e r t he na me s of t he Gr e a t La k e s wi t hout he l p (that i s, as
a f ree r ecal l t ask), y ou ma y e x pe r i e nc e s ome di f f i cul t y. Ho we v e r , i f y o u k no w t hat
t he first l et t ers of t he name s spel l t he wo r d HOMES, y o u ma y f i nd t he t ask mu c h
easi er. HOMES i s t he ki nd of me mo r y ai d c al l e d an acronym. An ac r ony m i s a wor d
or phr as e ma de ent i r el y of l et t ers wh i c h are c ue s t o wor ds we wa nt t o r e me mbe r .
Of t en t he c ue s are t he first l et t er or first s yl l abl e of t he wor ds we wa nt t o r e me mbe r .
Ot he r e xampl e s of ac r onyms are s hown i n Ta b l e 1 ( i t ems 2, 3, and 4).
Tabl e 1. Acronyms and Acrost i cs
Me mo r y Ai d T y p e Appl i c at i on
HO ME S Ac r o ny m T h e na me s of t he Gr e a t La k e s ( Hur on,
Ont ar i o, Mi c hi g a n, Er i e , Super i or )
I T C HE
( pr onounc ed " i t c hy " )
Ac r o ny m Wor ds de s i gnat i ng t he f our me mo r y
pr i nc i pl es ( I ndexi ng, Tas k s wi t c hi ng,
C/ mnki ng, El abor at i on)
ROY G. BI V Ac r o ny m T h e col or s of t he r ai nbow ( Red,
Or a ng e , Ye l l o w, Gr e e n , Bl u e , Zndi go,
Vi ol et )
F A C E Ac r o ny m T h e not es r e pr e s e nt e d by t he s pac es
of t he G- c l e f
Tr ue vi r t ue ma ke s dul l
c ompany.
Acr os t i c A s e que nc e of navi gat i on t er ms t o be
r e me mb e r e d i n or der ( Tr ue, Var i at i on,
Ma g ne t i c , De v i a t i o n, Co mpa s s )
Ev e r y good bo y doe s
fi ne.
Acr os t i c T h e not es r e pr e s e nt e d by t he l i nes
of t he G-cl e' f
On ol d Ol y mp u s t op-
most t op, a Fi nn
and Ge r ma n v i e we d
a hop.
Acr os t i c Us e d t o r e me mb e r t he first l et t ers of
t he crani al ne r v e s ( Opt i c, Ol f act or y,
Oc ul omot or , Tr ocl ear , Tr i ge mi nal ,
Ab d u c e n s , Fac i al , Audi t or y ,
Gl os s opha r y ng e a l , Va g us , Ac c e s s or y ,
Hy pogl os s al )
An acrostic i s a s e nt e nc e or r hy me i n wh i c h t he first l et t er of e a c h wo r d i s a c ue .
I n t he acrosti c, " T r u e vi r t ue me a ns dul l c o mpa ny , " t he first l et t er of e a c h wor d i s
a cue t o a s e que nc e of t er ms r el at i ng t o t he ma gne t i c c ompas s : " t r ue , uari at i on,
magnet i c, devi at i on, c o mp a s s . " Ot he r e x a mpl e s of acrost i cs are s ho wn i n Ta bl e 1
(i tems 6 and 7).
Exercises
I nvent acr onyms or acrost i cs for e a c h of t he f ol l owi ng:
1. A doubl e d c ons onant i s p r e c e d e d by a short v o we l .
2. T h e first 13 states of t he uni on i n or der of t hei r admi s s i on t o t he uni on: De l a -
war e, Pe nns y l vani a, Ne w Jer sey, Ge or g i a , Conne c t i c ut , Mas s ac hus et t s , Mary-
l and, Sout h Car ol i na, Ne w Ha mps hi r e , Vi r gi ni a, Ne w Yor k, Nor t h Car ol i na, and
Rhode I sl and.
3. Th e names of t he Gr eat La k e s i n or der of si ze: Ont ar i o, Er i e , Mi c hi g a n, Hur on,
Superi or.
4. Ge ol og i c a l per i ods of t he Pal e oz oi c era f rom ear l i est t o mos t recsent : Ca mbr i a n,
Or dov i c i an, Si l ur i an, De v o ni a n, Mi s s i s s i ppi an, Pe nns y l v a ni a n, Per mi an.
5. T h e pl anet s i n or der of di s t ance f rom t he sun: Me r c ur y , Ve n i i s, Ear t h, Mar s ,
Jupi t er, Sat urn, Ur anus , Ne pt une , Pl ut o.
The Rhyme-Key Met hod
Thi s me t ho d i s us ef ul for r e me mb e r i ng l i sts of or der ed or unor al e r e d i t ems s uc h
as s hoppi ng l i sts or c he c k l i sts. To us e t he me t hod, y o u mus t first mi e mor i z e t he l i st
of k e y wor ds r hy me d wi t h t he s e que nc e of di gi t s s ho wn i n Ta b l e 2.
Tabl e 2. Digits and Rhymed Key Wor ds
Di g i t Rh y me d Ke y Wc d
one g un
t wo s hoe
:
"
t hr ee t r ee
f our door
f i ve hi v e
si x br i cks
s e v e n he a v e n
e i ght gat e
ni ne mi ne
t en he n
Suppos e t hat we wa nt t o r e me mb e r a s hoppi ng l i st cons i s t i ng of t he f ol l owi ng
i t ems : oni ons , cof f ee, bananas , s oup, spaghet t i , col a, e ggs , br e ad, and mi l k. Wi t h t he
r hy me - ke y me t hod, we wi l l cr eat e an i mage r el at i ng t he i t ems on t he s hoppi ng l i st
t o t he s e q u e nc e of r hy me d k e y wor ds . Th u s t he first i t em, " o ni o ns , " mi ght be
as s oci at ed t o t he k e y wo r d " g u n " t hr ough an i mage of a g un s hoot i ng a hol e i n an
oni on or an i ma g e of a gun s hoot i ng oni ons as bul l et s . An y i ma g e t hat depi ct s a
st ri ki ng i nt er act i on b e t we e n t he r hy me d k e y wo r d and t he obj ect t o be r e me mb e r e d
wi l l do. Wh e n t he first i ma g e i s cr eat ed, t he s e c ond i t em i s r el at ed t o t he k e y wo r d
r hy me d wi t h t wo, and s o on. Thus , we mi ght pi ct ur e a s hoe f i l l ed wi t h gr ound
cof f ee, a ba na na ha ng i ng on a t r ee, a door i nset wi t h doz e ns of s oup cans , or b e e s
car r yi ng st rands of l i mp s paghet t i t o t hei r hi v e , a bo y t hr owi ng br i cks at col a bot t l es,
c l ouds (i n he a v e n) s ha pe d l i ke e g g s , a gat e set i nt o t he si de of a l oaf of br ead, and
mi l k pour i ng f rom t he mout h of a mi ne .
I f t he me t ho d i s t o wo r k we l l , y o u mus t first ha v e Ta b l e 2 t hor oughl y me mo -
r i zed, and y o u mus t gener at e v i v i d i nt er act i ve i mages r el at i ng t he i t ems t o be
r e me mb e r e d t o t he k e y wor ds .
Exercises
St udy t he r h y me d k e y pai rs s ho wn i n Ta bl e 2 unt i l y ou can r e pr oduc e t he m
r api dl y and eas i l y. T h e n me mo r i z e t he f ol l owi ng s hoppi ng l i sts us i ng t he r hy me -
k e y me t hod:
1. hat, gl ove s , s hoes , ne e dl e s , gl as s es , umbr el l a, pe n, gift wr ap, s cot ch t ape, razor
bl ade s
2. per c h, c he e s e , g i ng e r root , sal t, oni ons , c a s he ws , s a ndwi c h bags , st eak, c ooki e s
3. t hr ead, cur t ai ns, l i ght bul bs , s aw bl ade s , f uses, mas ki ng t ape
Mul tipl e-Key Met hod
Thi s me t ho d i s a vari at i on of t he r hy me - ke y me t hod and i s e s pe c i al l y usef ul for
r e me mbe r i ng t e l e phone numbe r s . T h e me t hod r equi r es a fair amount of i nti al
effort. Ta b l e 3, or a si mi l ar chart of your o wn de v i c e , mus t be t hor oughl y me mo -
ri zed. T h e effort i nv ol v e d i n l ear ni ng Ta b l e 3 i s l ess t han i t appear s at first gl anc e,
si nce t he k e y for eac h di gi t can be l ear ned as a s i ngl e i mage , and t he f our wor ds i n
t he k e y r hy me wi t h t he c or r e s pondi ng di gi t . To i l l ust rat e, t he f our k e y wor ds for
zer o, or " na ug ht , " can be st ored i n a s i ngl e i mage of a hot da ught e r wh o i s st andi ng
on her ne wl y - boug ht yacht . Fur t her , t he l ast c o l umn i n Ta b l e 3 i s i dent i cal t o t he
l ast c ol umn i n Ta bl e 2, whi c h y o u al r eady know.
Tabl e 3. A Chart for Using t he Mul tipl e-Key Met hod
Di gi t Modi f i er Act or Ac t Obj ec t - Pl ac e
0 hot daught er bo ug ht yac ht
(nought )
1 f unny nun runs gun
2 bl ue gnu f l ew s hoe
3 we e me ski s t ree
4 s nor i ng who r e t ore door
5 j i v e wi f e arri ves hi v e
6 qui c k hi c k fix br i cks
7 r avi ng Ke v i n s ever s he a v e n
8 cr at ed Be e t ho v e n i nf l at es gat e
9 f i ne l i on di ne s | mi ne
T h e hard part of r e me mb e r i ng a t e l e phone numb e r i s r e me mb e r i ng t he l ast
four di gi t s. So we wi l l c onc ent r at e on t hat first. To r e me mb e r t he numb e r 963- 8725,
we wi l l t ake t he l ast f our di gi t s i n or der and c ode t he m as a modi f i er , an actor, an
act, and an obj ect or pl ac e . Th u s , 8725 b e c o me s " c r a t e d Ke v i n f l ew t o a hi v e . "
Not i ce that t he or der of t he numbe r s i s i mpor t ant i n de t e r mi ni ng t he i mage . T h e
number 7528 b e c o me s " a r avi ng g nu arri ves at t he gat e , " and t he numb e r 5872
be c ome s " a j i v e Be e t h o v e n s ever s a s hoe . " Ar t i cl es and pr epos i t i ons can be i n-
sert ed t o assure t he gr ammat i cal i t y of t he phr ase.
Th e e x c ha nge (the first t hr ee di gi t s of a t e l e phone numbe r ) i s of t en eas y t o
r e me mbe r wi t hout a me mo r y ai d s i nce t he numbe r s we cal l mos t f r e que nt l y l oc a l
numbe r s e i t he r have t he s ame e x c ha ng e or are di v i de d i nt o a v e r y f e w e x c ha nge
areas. I f y ou do wa nt t o us e a me mo r y ai d for r e me mb e r i ng an e x c ha ng e , howe v e r ,
t he met hod r equi r es one modi f i c a t i ona s ymbol for a mi s s i ng numbe r . We wi l l us e
t he i mage of a hol e t o r e pr e s e nt a mi s s i ng numbe r . Thus t he numb e r 963 can be
r epr esent ed as "a f i ne hi ck ski s i nt o a ho l e . "
Exercises
1. Reci t e t he l i st of i mage s for t he di gi t s.
2. Gener at e i mages (and wor ds , wh e n pos s i bl e) for t he f ol l owi ng numbe r s :
a. 2893
b. 51 06
c. 7454
d. 8888
3. Gener at e i mages for t he f ol l owi ng numbe r s :
a. 555- 1 21 2 ( di rect ory as s i s t ancei nf or mat i on)
b. (292) 456- 1 41 4 (t he Whi t e Hous e )
c. 391- 9500 (the " t i me " numbe r )
4. Me mo r i z e t hi s soci al s ecur i t y numb e r (or y our own) :
420- 1 4- 31 70
5. Me mo r i z e TT t o ni ne pl ac e s :
3. 1 41 59265
The Met hod of Loci
Thi s me t hod, l i ke t he r hy me - ke y me t hod, i s e s pe c i al l y us ef ul for r e me mbe r i ng
unr el at ed l i sts of obj ect s. Be c a us e i t ret ai ns i t ems i n a speci f i c s e que nc e , i t i s al so
usef ul for me mo r i z i ng i t ems that mus t be mi xe d i n a def i ni t e or der , s uc h as i ngr edi -
ent s i n a r e c i pe , or c he mi c a l s i n a l aborat ory exper i ment . T h e me t ho d i s of ve r y
anc i ent or i gi n and wa s us e d by Roma n orators wh e n de l i v e r i ng s pe e c he s .
To us e t he me t ho d of l oci , y ou mus t s el ect a pl ac e s uch as a hous e or a bui l di ng
t hat y o u are ve r y f ami l i ar wi t h. Ne x t c hoos e a c onv e ni e nt st art i ng pl ac e s uc h as a
f ront door or mai n ent r anc e and i magi ne your s el f wa l k i ng s l owl y t hr ough t he bui l d-
i ng. As y o u wal k, c hoos e a s e q ue nc e of 20 di st i nct l oc i c l e a r l y de f i ne d pl ac es l i ke
a sof a or a r e f r i ge r a t or whe r e y o u can i magi ne put t i ng t he obj ect s y ou are t r yi ng
Figure 1. A Loci Map
t o r e me mbe r . To avoi d conf us i on, do not cross your pat h; t hat i s, " wa l k " i n eac h area
onl y onc e. Fi g ur e 1 s hows t he hous e t hat I us e and my c hos e n pat h t hr ough i t wi t h
20 l oci . T h e fi rst l oc us i s t he front door ; t he s e c ond, a radi at or, t he t hi rd, t he
ref ri gerat or, et c. It i s i mport ant , i f t he me t ho d i s t o wor k we l l , t hat y o u i dent i f y a
uni que pat h wi t h a we l l - de f i ne d st art i ng pl ac e and a v e r y def i ni t e set of l oci so that
wh e n y o u are r et r i evi ng i nf ormat i on y o u can r epeat exact l y t he s ame s e que nc e of
l oci t hat y ou us e d wh e n st ori ng t he i nf ormat i on.
To appl y t he me t hod of l oci i n l ear ni ng a l i st of i t ems s uc h as t hos e s hown i n
Ta bl e 4, y o u mus t associ at e t he i t ems of t he l i st s uc c e s s i v e l y t o t he s e que nc e of l oci .
Thus , si nce t he first i t em i s an umbr el l a, and my first l oc us i s t he f ront door, I
i magi ne t he umbr e l l a st uck i nt o t he mi ddl e of t he door. I i ma g i ne t he s ec ond i t em,
t he sea gul l , squat t i ng unc omf or t abl y on t he radi at or; t he t hi rd i t em, t he wat er -
me l on, f al l i ng out of t he ref ri gerat or, et c.
Tabl e 4. A Wor d List To Practi ce t he Met hod of Loci
1. umbr e l l a 1 1 . rai l road ti e
2. s ea gul l 12. br i ck
3. wa t e r me l o n 1 3. hi ppopot amus
4. Pi c as s o pai nt i ng 1 4. fi re
5. e l e pha nt 1 5. do g
6. t e l e pho ne 1 6. pi z z a
7. c r i c ket 17. unc l e
8. wat er f al l 18. c andl es t i c k
9. aut omobi l e ti re 1 9. s pi nac h
10. s now s hov e l 20. i vy vi ne s
I t hel ps i n us i ng t he me t ho d t o br eak y our l oci i nt o gr oups of f i ve. I f y ou us e
a squar e hous e for y our l oci , a c onv e ni e nt and nat ural wa y t o do t hi s i s t o pl ac e f i ve
l oci al ong e a c h of t he f our wal l s of t he hous e. Br e a ki ng t he l oci up i n t hi s wa y makes
i t easi er t o r et r i eve a s i ngl e i t em i n t he mi ddl e of t he l i st. For e x a mpl e , i f y ou want
t o r et r i eve i t em 1 2, y o u can j u mp ahead t o l ocus 1 0 at one cor ner of t he hous e and
t hen " wa l k " t wo l oci .
Exercises
1. Ma ke a di agr am of y our l oci si mi l ar to Fi g ur e 1.
2. Me mor i z e t he f ol l owi ng r e c i pe us i ng t he me t hod of l oci :
Veal CutletsParma Style
Beat six veal cutlets lightly to flatten them. Sprinkle with salt and fry in butter on both
sides in a heavy frying pan. Sprinkle the cutlets with Vt pound chopped ham, 2-3 sprigs
chopped parsley,
l
A cup grated parmesan cheese, and 2V2 tablespoons marsala wine.
Serve as soon as the cheese begins to melt.
3. Me mor i z e t he f ol l owi ng l i st s:
Li s t 1 Li s t 2
1. an e g g 1. c he e s e
2. Tho ma s Jef f erson 2. Buda pe s t
3. a f r ei ght t rai n 3. John Mi l t on
4. a wat e r gl ass 4. t hr ead
5. t he Th a me s Ri v e r 5. a yak
6. cot t on c a ndy 6. c a dmi um
7. a rose bus h 7. a door
8. Ty C o b b 8. t he Ant ar ct i c
9. a f ount ai n 9. t enni s
10. Be e t hov e n' s Se c o nd S y mpho ny 10. a r obi n
Tabl e 5. Results of Usi ng the Met hod of Loci To Learn Successi ve Lists
Suc c e s s i v e Li st s Le a r ne d
Subj ec t 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 20 20 16 1 9 20 19
2 1 9 20 1 7 1 5 18 14
3 18 20 20 1 8
4 20 1 9 20
5 1 6 1 3 1 6 1 2 1 4 14
Li st 1 Li s t 2
1 1 . a hor se 1 1 . j ur i s pr ude nc e
12. an i ce c r e am c one 12. a v a c uum c l e ane r
1 3. phi l os ophy 1 3. Spi r o A g n e w
1 4. Gha na 1 4. t he Py r e ne e s
1 5. a pe nc i l 1 5. ma pl e s yr up
16. a carrot 16. a l i ght b u l b
17. t he Paci f i c Oc e a n 17. Bul gar i a
18. Ga l i l e o 18. s umme r
19. an a ut omobi l e ti re 19. hone s t y
20. j e l l o 20. Ce z a n n e
Repair manual. I f y ou have t r oubl e wi t h t he me t ho dt ha t i s, i f y o u f i nd y o u
r e me mbe r l ess t han 1 7 or 1 8 out of 20 i t e ms t r y t he f ol l owi ng:
1. Recheck your loci. Ma k e anot her di agr am of your l oci and c he c k i t agai nst t he
di agr am y o u ma de i n Ex e r c i s e 1 . Be sure t hat y o u k no w wi t hout any do ubt
exact l y wha t y our l oc i are and wha t or der t he y c o me i n.
2. Be sure that you are generating striking interactive images. If y ou are st ori ng t he
i t em " t o we l " at t he l oc us " s i nk, " don' t j us t pl ac e t he t owe l t her e neat l y f ol ded
and l ooki ng as i f i t be l o ng e d. Ma k e t he t owe l and t he si nk i nt eract . I magi ne t hat
t he wat e r i s t ur ne d on and i t i s s oaki ng t he t owe l . I f y o u are st or i ng t he umbr e l l a
on t he st ove, l et t he s t ove set fire t o t he umbr el l a.
T h e me t ho d of l oci has pr ov e d i t sel f qui t e ef f ect i ve i n i mpr ov i ng me mo r y for
l i sts. Se ve nt y- f i ve of my st udent s we r e g i v e n a me mo r y t est bot h bef or e and after
l ear ni ng t he me t ho d of l oci . I n bot h cas es , t he st udent s hear d a l i st of 20 i t ems r ead
onl y onc e at t he rate of one i t em e v e r y s e v e n s ec onds . T h e me di a n score on t he
pre- t est wa s 7; on t he post -t est , 17. T h e di f f er ence wa s ve r y r el i abl e st at i st i cal l y.
S o me s t udent s ha v e e x pr e s s e d c onc e r n t hat t he me t ho d of l oc i wi l l b e c o me l ess
and l ess ef f ect i ve as one c ont i nue s t o us e i t t o l ear n s uc c e s s i v e l i sts. T h e wor r y i s
that i mage s c ons t r uc t ed for r e me mb e r i ng ear l i er l i sts wi l l b e c o me c onf us e d wi t h
i mages for t he c ur r ent l i st, and that t hi s conf us i on wi l l gr ow as t he numbe r of l i sts
we l ear n by t hi s me t ho d i ncr eas es . Conf us i ons of t hi s sort s ome t i me s oc c ur i n us i ng
t he me t hod, but I don' t b e l i e v e t hat t hey const i t ut e an i mpor t ant l i mi t at i on. To t est
my bel i ef , I a s ke d p e o p l e t o us e t he me t ho d s ever al t i mes i n s uc c es s i on. T h e y
l e ar ne d a l i st, we r e t e s t e d on it, i mme di a t e l y l e ar ne d a s e c ond l i st, we r e t es t ed on
t he s e c ond l i st , and so on. I r eas oned t hat l ear ni ng t he l i sts i n i mme di a t e s uc c e s s i on
wo u l d c aus e mor e c onf us i on t han wo u l d l ear ni ng l i sts wi d e l y s epar at ed i n t i me.
Thus , t hi s t est s houl d be a s e v e r e one for t he me t hod of l oci . T h e resul t s are s ho wn
i n Ta b l e 5. Cl e a r l y t he me t ho d hol ds up qui t e we l l e v e n unde r t hi s s e v e r e t est .
The Keyword Met hod
T h e k e y wo r d me t ho d i s e s pe c i al l y usef ul for l ear ni ng f or ei gn l anguage voc abu-
l ary. We wi l l i l l ust rat e t he me t hod by a ppl y i ng i t i n l ear ni ng t he me a ni ng s of t he
l i st of It al i an wor ds i n Ta b l e 6. Co ns i de r t he first It al i an wor d, agnello. T h e It al i an
pr onunci at i on [ AN Y E L L ' OH] s ounds qui t e si mi l ar t o t he Eng l i s h wor ds " A NN
Y E L L O W, " our c hos e n k e y wo r ds for agnello. Ne x t we wi l l r el at e t he k e y wo r ds t o
t he Eng l i s h t ransl at i on: " l a mb . " To do t hi s we can cr eat e an i ma g e of a gi rl , Ann,
l e a di ng a br i ght y e l l o w l amb. T h e s e c ond wor d, pomidoro [ P AL M EE D O O R ' OH] ,
s ounds l i ke t he Eng l i s h wor ds " B A L MY D O O R " o r " B O MB HI S D O O R . " For t he
first ke y wor d, we c oul d i magi ne a door wa y i n a t ropi cal r e gi on s ur r ounde d by pal m
t rees and t omat o pl ant s. For t he s e c ond k e y wo r d we c oul d i magi ne a man' s door
be i ng bomba r de d wi t h e x pl odi ng t omat oes .
Tabl e 6. Italian Menu Wor ds
Wor d i n It al i an Pr onunc i at i on Ke y Wo r d Eng l i s h Me a ni ng
ag ne F l o an y e l l ' oh ann y e l l o w l amb
bi s t ec' ca bi ss t e c h' ah b e e st i cker st eak
for ma g ' gi o for mo d g e j o for mo d j oe c he e s e
ci pol ' l e c h e e pol e a c he a p ol l i e oni ons
pom i dor ' o pal m ee door oh
b a
!
m y
l d o o r
pa l my j
t omat oes
man' zo mo n zo man s e w b e e f
ri p i e n' o r ee pe e - a' no ri p pi ano st uf f ed
tor' ta t ore t ah (ex) tort a c ake
i n sa l a' ta i n sah l ah' t ah it' s a l ot t a' sal ad
(sal ad)
uo' va wo e v ah wo v e n e g g s
mai al ' e ma h y a h' l ay my al l ey pork, pi g
car c i o' fi car c ho h' f e car s how f ee ar t i chokes
me l an z an' e me h l ahn z ahn' a z any me l o n e g g pl a nt
vi t el ' l o v e e t e l l ' oh v t el l y v e al
pol ' l o pol e ' l o w pol o c hi c k e n
f un' ghi f oon g he e f un g e e s e mus hr ooms
pe s ' c e pe s h s hay pas s i on f i sh
bi an' co b e e y o n' co b e e unc l e whi t e
sal si c' c e sahl s ee c hay sol ' s i t chy s aus age
ros' so r ow s ow r ow s ow r ed
T h e k e y wo r d me t hod, t hen, consi st s of t wo st eps: Fi rst , one sel ect s as a key-
wor d an Eng l i s h wo r d t hat r e s e mbl e s t he f or ei gn wo r d i n pr onunc i at i on. As i s t he
case i n us i ng " b o mb hi s door " as a k e y wo r d for pomi dor o, t he r e s e mbl a nc e n e e d
not be perf ect . Se c ond, one cr eat es a st ri ki ng i nt er act i ve i ma g e r el at i ng t he key--
wor d and t he Eng l i s h me a ni ng . T h e i mages mus t be ac t i vel y r el at ed, as we s aw i n
t he l ast chapt er , t o pr omot e r et r i eval .
Exercise 1
I n Ta b l e 6, we ha v e s ug g e s t e d k e y wo r ds for e a c h of t he 20 It al i an wor ds .
Spe nd about 1 0 mi nut e s , us i ng t he k e y wo r d me t hod, t o l ear n al l 20 of t he
It al i an wor ds . Be sure t o gener at e an i nt er act i ve i ma g e r el at i ng t he k e y wo r d
wi t h t he Eng l i s h me a ni ng . Thi s i s a cr uci al st ep i n t he k e y wo r d me t hod. T h e n
c over t he pa g e s o t hat onl y t he It al i an wor ds are s ho wi ng a nd t est yoursel f .
Tabl e 7. Arabi c Menu Wor ds
Wor d i n Ar abi c Ke y wo r d Eng l i s h Me a ni ng
l o o ' be e bl ue be a n gr e e n be a ns
ba mi ' a b o mb okra
koo' s a c l ue s g r e e n s quas h
wa ' r a k wa r rock l e av e s
a r e e s h' a r each gr ape
l a' ban l ob b un yogur t
k i b ' b e e k b me at and whe a t
na y e e ' i e r aw
t a b o o ' l e e t abl e l e g mi xt ur e
ba ' ba g a n o u g e ' papa c anoes ma s he d e g g pl a nt
ho m' mo s ho me mos s c hi c k peas
bi t ' h e n ' e e bi t any s e s ame
bas z e l ' l a b u z z el l a s we e t peas
mi ' s he e mi s hmos h st uf f ed
mal f o o f mal e foot c a bba g e l e av e s
na mool ' a mul e but t er c ooki e
na mu' r a no mor e c oc onut c ake
ke na' f e e can offer s hr e dde d whe a t c ake
ni ss oo ni ss not so ni c e hal f and hal f
ba k l a ' wa ba ke l ava ho ne y past ry
Exercise 2
St udy t he Ar abi c me n u wor ds i n Ta b l e 7 for 1 0 mi nut e s by t he k e y wo r d
me t ho d ( t i me your sel f ) . T h e n t est y our s e l f by c ov e r i ng al l but t he Ar abi c wor ds .
Generating Keywords
I n t he t wo e xe r c i s e s a bov e , we ha v e pr ov i de d k e y wo r ds for y ou. No w, t o ma ke
t he t e c hni que mor e ge ne r a l l y us ef ul , y o u s houl d pr act i ce gener at i ng ke y wor ds for
your sel f . Ta b l e 8 s hows 20 Ge r ma n wor ds , t hei r pr onunc i at i ons , and t hei r me a n-
i ngs. S p e n d 20 mi nut e s s t udy i ng t hes e wor ds by t he k e y wo r d me t hod, gener at i ng
your o wn k e y wo r ds . T h e n t est y our s e l f by c ov e r i ng t he page s o t hat onl y t he
Ge r ma n wor ds are s howi ng .
Wh e n k e y wo r ds are pr ovi de d, we es t i mat e t hat i t t akes a t ypi cal s t udent about
30 s e c onds per wo r d t o me mo r i z e a l i st of f or ei gn l anguage wor ds by t he k e y wo r d
me t hod. Wh e n k e y wo r ds are not pr ov i de d, t he s ame task t akes about 60 s ec onds per
wor d.
T h e me t ho d appear s t o wor k we l l for mos t st udent s. Ei ght y- f i ve of my st udent s
we r e g i v e n 1 0 mi nut e s t o l ear n t he It al i an wor ds s ho wn i n Ta b l e 6 ( whi c h t he y had
not s e e n bef or e) , wi t h t he k e y wo r ds pr ovi de d. Gi v e n a post t est , 66 pe r c e nt got al l
20 correct , 1 9 pe r c e nt got 1 8 or 1 9 correct , and 1 5 pe r c e nt got 1 7 or f e we r correct .
Worries. S o me pe o pl e have e x pr e s s e d c onc e r n t hat by us i ng t he k e y wo r d
me t hod, t he l a ng ua g e s t udent ' s me mo r y wi l l be c l ut t er ed wi t h me a ni ngl e s s key-
wor ds whi c h, whi l e us ef ul for i ni t i al l ear ni ng, wi l l l at er i nt er f er e wi t h t he natural
us e of l a ng ua g e . At ki ns on ( 1 975) , wh o has pi o ne e r e d r es ear c h on t he us e of t hi s
me t hod, has i nve s t i gat e d t hi s pr obl e m. He f i nds i n gener al t hat t he st udent ' s con-
s c i ous nes s of t he k e y wo r ds f ades as f ami l i ari t y wi t h t he l anguage i ncr eases. Th u s
i t appear s t hat t he k e y wo r d , wh i c h i s usef ul for i ni ti al l ear ni ng, di s appear s wi t hout
harmf ul af t er-ef f ect s, l i ke a bui l de r ' s scaf f ol di ng wh e n i t i s no l onger ne e de d.
A s e c ond f r e que nt l y e x pr e s s e d wor r y r el at es t o pr onunci at i on. Si nc e t he key-
Tabl e 8. Ger man Wor ds
Ge r ma n Wo r d Pr onunc i at i on Eng l i s h Wor d
a be nd ah- bent e v e ni ng
ei e y e e g g
es s en ess- en to eat
f l ugz e ug f l ook- t soyk ai r pl ane
f ri i hstuck f r ee- s cht eeck br eakf ast
gast hof gahsst - hahf hot el
kartoffel kart-off-el pot at o
kel l ner kel - ner wai t er
mi t t ag mi t - t ahg noon
mor ge n mor g- en mor ni ng
ni cht ni kt not
r ouc hen r owk- en t o s moke
stadt shtahtt ci t y
strasse sht rahs-e st reet
t r i nken t ri nken t o dri nk
wa nn vahnn wh e n
wo vok wh e r e
zei t t si t e t i me
z e i t ung t sy- t oong ne ws pa pe r
z ug t sook trai n
wor d pr ovi des onl y an appr oxi mat i on t o t he cor r ect pr onunc i at i on of t he f or ei gn
wor d, s ome ha v e b e e n c o nc e r ne d t hat st udent s us i ng t he me t ho d ma y l ear n i ncor-
rect pr onunci at i ons wh i c h wi l l l at er be har d t o unl ear n. Thi s i s cer t ai nl y a pr obl e m
t o be a v oi de d i n us i ng t he me t hod. Si nge r ( 1976) has s hown, ho we v e r , that t he
ke y wor d me t ho d c an act ual l y be us e d as an ai d i n av oi di ng errors i n pr onunci at i on.
For e xampl e , i n l ear ni ng t he Fr e nc h wo r d l e pantalon, her st udent s wo u l d t ypi c al l y
have mi s pr onounc e d t he first s yl l abl e of t he wo r d by us i ng a short " a . " " L e pant a-
l on" l ooks l i ke " pa nt , " not " po nt , " as i t s houl d be pr onounc e d. By c hoos i ng t he
keywor d, " Po nt i a c , " t he mi s pr onunc i at i on wa s a v oi de d.
T h e k e y wo r d me t ho d ma y al so be us e d t o l ear n s pel l i ng. Suppo s e y o u wa nt e d
to l earn to s pel l t he wo r ds peasant, existence, and determine. Fi rst , y ou mus t
i dent i f y an Eng l i s h wo r d (or wor ds ) wh i c h cont ai ns t he " har d- t o- s pel l " part of t he
target wor d. Wh e r e pos s i bl e, t he k e y wo r ds ma y cont ai n t he wh o l e wor d. Thus , we
get t he k e y wo r ds , " P E A S A N T " for PEASANT, " T E N " for EXISTENCE, and
" D E T E R MI N E " for DETERMINE. Next , y o u mus t cons t r uct an i ma g e or st ory
rel at i ng t he k e y wo r ds t o t he t arget wor d. Thus , for t he first wor d, we may cons t r uct
t he s ent enc e, " Pe a s a nt s eat peas wi t h ants on t he m" ; for t he s e c ond, " Ex i s t e nc e has
t en mi nus one l et t er s " ; and for t he t hi rd, " T h e coal c o mpa ny want s t o di g a hol e i n
my front yar d but I am de t e r mi ne d t o det er t he mi n e . " Thi s t e c hni que has b e e n
des c r i bed in det ai l by Shef t er ( 1976) in hi s book, Six Minutes a Day to Perfect
Spelling.
Exercise
Us e t he k e y wo r d me t ho d t o l ear n t he f ol l owi ng s pe l l i ng wor ds :
ac c e pt abl e
c ame os
cour t es y
ext raordi nary
j ur i s di ct i on
ma us o l e um
pi g e on
s ove r e i gn
The I mage- Name Techni que
Thi s pr oc e dur e i s mos t f r equent l y us e d for l ear ni ng pe opl e ' s na me s , but i t can
al so be us e d for as s oci at i ng pai nt i ngs wi t h t hei r t i t l es, or, mor e gener al l y, i mages
wi t h na me s .
Let ' s s uppos e y o u wa nt t o l ear n t he na me s of s ome pe opl e . T h e i mage - name
t e c hni que i nv ol v e s a na l y z i ng bot h t he f ace and t he na me , and t he n s e ar c hi ng for
any r el at i on b e t we e n t he t wo that can be f ound. Anal ys i s of t he f ace i nv ol v e s
s ear c hi ng for i ndi vi dual f eat ures s uc h as cl os el y- s et e y e s , hi gh hai r l i ne, l ar ge ears,
or he a v y e y e b r o ws , or for over al l i mpr es s i on s uc h as " r e mi nds me of a we a s e l , " or
" l ooks l i ke a j u d g e . " T h e f eat ures t hat y o u at t end t o s houl d be pe r ma ne nt ones t hat
are l i ke l y t o be pr e s e nt wh e n y o u me e t t he per s on agai n. Cl ot he s or c ha ng e a bl e
j e we l r y wo u l d not he l p y o u l ear n t he na me per manent l y.
Anal y s i s of t he na me i nv ol v e s i dent i f i cat i on of parts, r hy me s , and puns . An y
rel at i on t hat y o u c an f i nd b e t we e n t he anal ysi s of t he f ace and t he na me i s fair game.
Fi gur e s 2 and 3 s how one subj ect ' s anal ysi s of t wo na me s and f aces and t he rel at i ons
he f ound b e t we e n t he m.
Ap p l y t he i ma g e - na me t e c hni que t he next t i me y o u me e t s o me o ne ne w.
T h e i ma g e - na me t e c hni que i s har der for mos t pe o pl e t han t he t e c hni que s
di s c us s e d pr evi ous l y. Pri or t o l ear ni ng t he i mage - name t e c hni que , 75 st udent s i n
Exercise
Figure 2. Usi ng t he Image/Name Techni que to Learn Gregory Thurstone' s Name
Using Memory Effectively
105
Figure 3. Usi ng t he I mage/Name Techni que t o Learn Dwi ght Dent on' s Name
my Pr obl e m Sol v i ng c our s e we r e abl e t o r e me mb e r a me di a n of si x name- f ac e pai rs
i n a l i st of 20. Af t er l e ar ni ng t he t e c hni que , t he y we r e abl e t o r e me mb e r a me di a n
of 10. 5 name- f ac e pai rs. Whi l e t hi s i mpr ov e me nt i s l ess i mpr e s s i ve t han t he
i mpr ov e me nt wi t h t he me t ho d of l oci , i t i s ve r y r el i abl e st at i st i cal l y. Of t he 75
st udent s, 66 s h o we d s ome i mpr ov e me nt after l ear ni ng t he me t hod.
Repair manual. I f y o u are ha v i ng t r oubl e wi t h t he i ma g e - na me t e c hni que , t he
di f f i cul t y ma y c o me f rom i nade quat e anal ysi s of t he na me s and f aces. Thi s as pect
of t he t e c hni que r equi r es c ons i de r abl e effort and concent r at i on i f i t i s t o wor k
cons i s t ent l y we l l . Yo u s houl dn' t e x pe c t me mor a bl e rel at i ons b e t we e n name s and
f aces t o s pr i ng i nt o c ons c i ous ne s s easi l y. Of t en y o u wi l l have t o di g for t hem.
Pract i ce he l ps her e.
A final word of wisdom. T h e t e c hni que won' t he l p at al l i f y o u don' t us e it. To
get t he be ne f i t of t he t e c hni que y o u have t o get i n t he habi t of a ppl y i ng i t wh e n y ou
me e t n e w pe o pl e .
I n al l of t he t e c hni que s we have di s c us s e d s o far, t he me mo r y c ue and t he
cont ent r e t r i e ve d we r e di st i nct . I n t he c ha i ni ng t e c hni que , e a c h port i on of t he
cont ent as i t i s r e t r i e v e d s er ves as t he c ue for t he next r et r i eval . Wi t h t hi s t e c hni que ,
t he user const r uct s a st ory t hat i ncor por at es eac h e l e me nt of a l i st t o be r e me mbe r e d
i n turn. Th u s , t o r e me mb e r t he l i st: f udge, Tor ont o, Na pol e on, pi n, ant eat er, t ent ,
bri ck, f l ower pot , ri ver, and hot dog, we c an cr eat e a st ory l i ke t he f ol l owi ng: " On c e
t here wa s a pi e c e of f udge ma de i n Tor ont o. I t wa s eat en by Na po l e o n and gave hi m
a pai n i n t he s t omac h t hat f el t l i ke a pi n. He pul l e d i t out and t hr e w i t at an ant eat er
wh o wa s f r i ght ened and ran i nt o a t ent wh e r e i t hi t its he a d agai ns t a br i ck that was
j ust i ns i de, and k no c k e d ov e r t he f l ower pot on t op, wh i c h r ol l ed d o wn t o t he ri ver
and f l oat ed next t o an ol d hot do g . "
Thi s t e c hni que i s us ef ul for t he s ame r ange of tasks as t he me t hod of l oci , i . e. ,
r e me mbe r i ng or de r e d or unor de r e d l i sts of obj ect s. Kohut ( 1976) c ompar e d t hese
t wo me t hods for me mo r i z i ng mul t i pl e l i sts. He as ke d subj ect s t o hol d six l i sts i n
me mor y at t he s ame t i me, t hr ee me mo r i z e d by t he me t ho d of l oci and t hr ee by t he
c hai ni ng me t hod. He t es t ed for recal l of t he l i sts after al l si x had b e e n me mor i z e d.
I n t he t est s, t he s ubj ect wa s g i v e n t he first wor d of t he l i st and as ked t o recal l t he
Chai ni ng
rest. Kohut f ound t hat t he t wo me t hods we r e about e qua l l y good i f t he subj ect had
t o r e me mb e r bot h t he cor r ect posi t i on and t he cor r ect l i st t o be s cor ed correct .
Ho we v e r , t he me t ho d of l oci wa s bet t er i f t he s ubj ect j us t had t o r e me mbe r t he
cor r ect pos i t i on of t he wo r d i n its l i st and not whi c h l i st i t wa s on. T h e c hai ni ng
me t ho d wa s bet t er i f t he subj ect j us t had t o get t he l i st ri ght but not t he posi t i on.
WHY DO THE MNEMONI C TECHNIQUES WORK?
As we not e d earl i er, t he mne mo ni c t e c hni que s d e p e n d on f our me mo r y pri nci -
pl es for t hei r ef f ec t i venes s :
J . I nde x i ng ,
2. Swi t c hi ng t o an eas i er me mo r y t ask,
3. Ch u nk i ng , and
4. El abor at i on.
Ac r ony ms and acrost i cs ma ke us e of t wo of t he pr i nc i pl es . T h e ac r ony m
I T C HE , for e x a mpl e , i s a c hunk wh i c h he l ps us r e me mb e r c ue s t o t he f our me mo r y
pr i nci pl es . T h e s e c ue s c ha ng e wha t wo u l d ot he r wi s e be a f ree recal l t ask i nt o a
c ue d recal l task. Ac r os t i c s wor k i n t he s ame wa y . Thus , ac r onyms and acrost i cs
de pe nd on c hunk i ng and on s wi t c hi ng t o an eas i er me mo r y task.
T h e r hy me - k e y me t ho d make s us e of a numer i c al i nde x t he numbe r s f rom
one t o t e nt o c ue hi ghl y i ma g e a bl e k e y wo r d s g u n , s hoe, et c. T h e ke y wor ds are
associ at ed wi t h t he i t ems t o be r e me mb e r e d by f or mi ng i nt er act i ve i ma g e s a
pr oces s of el abor at i on. T h e mul t i pl e - ke y me t hod de pe nds on t he s ame pr i nci pl es
as t he r hy me - ke y me t hod, as doe s t he me t hod of l oci . Ho we v e r , t he me t hod of l oci
uses a spati al rat her t han a numer i c al i ndex.
T h e k e y wo r d me t hod, t he i mage - name t e c hni que , and t he c hai ni ng me t hod al l
d e p e n d on el abor at i on of var i ous sorts. I n t he c hai ni ng me t hod, t he el abor at i on may
be l ar gel y s e ma n t i c we try t o t el l our s e l ve s a me ani ngf ul story about i t ems t o be
r e me mb e r e d a n d i n t he k e y wo r d me t hod, i t may be l ar gel y vi s ual , e. g. , i mages of
t omat oes t hr own at door s. T h e i mage - name t e c hni que e nc our a g e s bot h audi t or y
and vi sual el abor at i on.
Ta b l e 9 l i sts t he s e v e n mne mo ni c t e c hni que s t oget her wi t h t he me mo r y pr ob-
l e ms t he y are a ppl i e d t o and t he me mo r y pr i nc i pl es t he y e mpl oy .
Const ruct i ng Memor y Schemes
We have pr e s e nt e d a numbe r of s c he me s t hat can be us e d t o ai d me mor y .
Th e s e s c he me s are e a c h usef ul i n t he ms e l v e s i n a var i et y of si t uat i ons. Ho we v e r ,
t he r eader wo u l d be mi s s i ng a maj or val ue of t hes e s c he me s and an i mport ant
r eason for pr e s e nt i ng t he m, i f he f ai l ed t o r eal i z e t hat t hey i l l ust rat e j us t a f e w of t he
ma ny pos s i bl e me mo r y s c he me s . T h e r eader s houl d r eal i z e t hat he hi ms e l f can
const r uct ot her s.
T h e s c he me s we ha v e pr e s e nt e d di f f er i n a numbe r of wa y s . S o me of t he
s c he me s e mpl o y me mo r i z e d ke y s whi l e ot hers r equi r e t he us er t o gener at e hi s o wn
keys . Some ha v e s i ngl e ke y s ; ot her s, mul t i pl e ke y s . S o me s c he me s us e audi t or y
i mager y, ot hers r e qui r e vi sual i mager y, and so on. I f y o u have a s peci al me mor y
ne e d, y ou ma y f i nd t hat none of t he s c he me s we have pr e s e nt e d i s qui t e appropri at e
t o it. Suppos e y o u wa nt a me mo r y s c he me for us e i n pl a y i ng br i dge . No ne of t he
s c he me s we ha v e pr e s e nt e d i s e s pe c i al l y adapt ed t o r e me mb e r i ng t he cards yet t o
be pl a y e d i n a br i dg e hand. Wha t wo u l d y o u do t o put s uch a s c he me t oget her ? A
wa y t o be g i n wo u l d be t o try t o a ns we r t wo ques t i ons :
1. Wha t i s s pec i al about t he br i dge si t uat i on?
2. Wha t as pec t s of k n o wn me mo r y s c he me s mat c h t he s peci al as pec t of t he
br i dge si t uat i on?
Using Memory Effectively ?07
Tabl e 9. Seven Mnemoni c Techni ques, Their Appl i cati ons, and the Memory Principles
Invol ved in Their Use
Na me Appl i c at i on Me mo r y Pr i nc i pl es Us e d
Ac r o ny ms and
Acr os t i cs
pe r ma ne nt st orage of i mpor-
t ant l i sts and r ul es , e. g. ,
s hoppi ng l i st s; not us e d for
t empor ar y st orage
c hunki ng , task
Rhy me - Ke y arbi t rary l i sts of 10 i t ems
or l ess ( or der ed or unor der ed)
nume r i c a l i nde xi ng,
el abor at i on
Mul t i pl e - Ke y mul t i - di gi t numbe r s , e. g. ,
t e l e pho ne numbe r s
nume r i c a l i nde xi ng,
el abor at i on
Me t hod of Lo c i arbi t rary l i sts ( or der ed or
unor de r e d) ; l engt h l i mi t ed
by l oci l i st
spat i al i nde xi ng,
el abor at i on
Ke y wo r d Me t ho d v oc abul ar y l ear ni ng el abor at i on
I ma g e - Na me l ear ni ng na me s of pe opl e ,
wor ks of art
el abor at i on
Cha i ni ng arbi t rary l i sts ( or der ed or
unor de r e d)
el abor at i on
To a ns we r t he first que s t i on, we ma y not e t hat br i dge has f our pl ayer s ; t hey are
associ at ed wi t h t he c ompa s s di r ec t i ons nor t h, sout h, east , and we s t ; t her e are t wo
hands wh i c h don' t n e e d t o be r e me mb e r e d s e l f and d u mmy ; s ome cards are mor e
i mport ant t han ot her s ; and t he cards are c har ac t er i z ed by t wo di me ns i o ns s ui t and
val ue. T h e s e pr oper t i es of t he br i dg e t ask s ugges t s ome f eat ures we mi g ht wa nt t o
i nc l ude i n a us ef ul me mo r y s c he me . T h e spati al c odi ng of t he f our pl ayer s s ugges t s
t he us e of a modi f i e d me t ho d of l oci wi t h a l ocus for e a c h of t he c ompas s di r ect i ons .
T h e fact t hat t he cards ha v e t wo di me ns i ons s ugges t s a pai r of me mo r i z e d
k e y s o n e for sui t and one for val ue. Si nc e t he val ues are t he di gi t s one t hr ough t en
and Jack, Qu e e n , and Ki ng, t he r hy me - ke y for di gi t s mi ght eas i l y be a ug me nt e d t o
pr ovi de t he k e y for v a l ue . Si nc e t he r hy me - ke y i s f oc us ed on nouns , per haps t he
sui t k e y s houl d be f oc us e d on adj ect i ves t o al l ow eas y c ombi nat i ons of t he ke ys i n
i mages. Ca n a us ef ul s c he me be c ons t r uc t ed wi t h t hes e pr oper t i es ? We don' t know.
We l e ave t hat que s t i on t o t he i nt er es t ed reader.
Exercises
De s i g n a me mo r y s c he me ba s e d on an anal ysi s of t he me mo r y task of one of t he
f ol l owi ng:
1. c hemi c al nome nc l a t ur e
2. bi ol ogi cal cl assi f i cat i ons
3. appoi nt ment s
4. geol ogi cal eras
5. resi st er c ol or - c odi ng
6. traffic l aws
7. cul t ural hi st ory
USING EXTERNAL SOURCES
The r e i s an e nor mous amount of usef ul i nf ormat i on st or ed i n s uc h ext ernal
sources as t ext books , ma g a z i ne s , j our nal s , ne ws pa pe r s , mi cr of i l m, and so on. The r e
i s so muc h usef ul i nf or mat i on, i n fact, that we of t en have c ons i de r abl e t r oubl e
si f ti ng t hr ough wha t i s avai l abl e t o f i nd wha t we want . For t unat el y, t her e are ma ny
gui de s or indexes t o avai l abl e i nf ormat i on wh i c h can ai d us i n our search. Kn o wi n g
t he ri ght i nde x e s i s an i mpor t ant pr er equi s i t e t o wor k i n ma ny f i el ds. For e xampl e ,
phys i c i ans s houl d be abl e t o us e t he Cumulative Medical Index, and ps yc hol ogi s t s
s houl d k no w ho w t o l ocat e ps yc hol ogi c al st udi es t hr ough Psychological Abstracts.
Using Indexes
T h e ques t i ons we ma y n e e d t o ask wh e n doi ng r es ear c h i n t he l i brary are ve r y
di ve r s e , and s o are t he s our ces of i nf ormat i on n e e d e d t o a ns we r t hem. T h e card
cat al og i s one i nde x t o t hes e s our ces , but t ypi c al l y we ne e d ma ny mor e. Amo n g t he
mos t ge ne r a l l y usef ul i nde x e s * are:
1. World Almanac and Book of Facts
2. Statistical Abstract of the United States
3. Webster's Third New International Dictionary of the English Language
Unabridged
4. Encyclopedia Americana
5. Reader's Guide to Periodic Literature
6. New York Times Index
I f t her e are any of t hes e r ef er enc es wh i c h y o u have ne v e r us e d, y o u shoul d make
a poi nt of f i ndi ng t he m i n t he l i brary and e x a mi ni ng t hei r c ont ent s .
On e of t he mos t v a l ua bl e r es our c es of a l i brary i s t he staff of r es ear c h l i brari ans.
Re s e a r c h l i brari ans are f ami l i ar wi t h a l ar ge numb e r of i nde x e s t o i nf or ma t i on
ma ny unf ami l i ar t o mos t p e o p l e wh i c h al l ow t he m t o a ns we r a s t upi f yi ng var i et y
of ques t i ons . Be l o w are s ome s ampl e s of t he ki nds of ques t i ons r es ear c h l i brari ans
mus t ha ndl e and t he r e f e r e nc e s our ces ( i ndexes) wh i c h ma y be us e d t o a ns we r
t he m. *
Q: Wha t do e s A. C. R. L. me a n?
A: Lo o k in t he Acronyms, Initialisms, b- Abbreviations Dictionary.
Q: I k no w par t of a p o e m; h o w can I f i nd out wha t i t i s so t hat I can get a c o py ?
A: Granger's Index to Poetry ( i nde xe d by t i t l e and fi rst l i ne)
Q: Wha t doe s t he s y mbo l of t he py r ami d on t he ba c k of t he dol l ar bi l l si gni f y?
A: Collier's Encyclopedia, v. 1 1 . Thi s appear s unde r t he s ubj ect of t he " Gr e a t
Seal of t he Uni t e d St at es . " An y at t empt t o l ocat e t hi s i nf or mat i on unde r t he
he a di ng s of " do l l a r " or " c ur r e nc y " or " mo n e y " wi l l be f ut i l e.
Q: Ho w ma ny s t eel wor ke r s b e l o n g t o l abor uni ons ?
A: Directory of National Unions and Employee Associations
Q: Wh e r e c an I f i nd t he addr es s of t he c o mpa ny t hat ma ke s my sl i de- o- mat i c
wi n d o ws ?
A: Thomas Register, v. 7 ( brand name s and i ndex)
Q: Ho w ma ny hous e s i n t he Pi t t s bur gh ar ea ha v e cent r al ai r - condi t i oni ng?
A: U.S. Census of Housing, Census Tracts, Pittsburgh, PA.
Q: Wh e r e c an I b u y a good ma p of De k a l b Count y , Ge o r g i a ?
A: 10,000 Map and Travel Publications Reference Guide
T h e i mpor t ant poi nt t o not i c e i s t hat t her e are ma ny obs c ur e i nde xe s . T h e i ndex
mos t appr opr i at e t o s ol v i ng y our pr obl e m ma y be one y o u ne v e r dr e a me d exi s t ed,
and a qui c k que s t i on t o y our r es ear c h l i brari an mi g ht l e a d y o u t o it.
* These lists were prepared by Ms. Dorothea Thompson, Reference Librarian, Hunt
Library, Carnegi e-Mel l on University.
Using Memory Effectively
709
Exercises
Fi nd appr opr i at e i nde xe s t o he l p y o u a ns we r t he f ol l owi ng ques t i ons :
1. Is t her e a pos t er of t he Co ne he a d s i n pr i nt ?
2. Wha t do yaks eat ?
3. On wha t da y di d Es t es Ke f auve r di e ?
4. Wh o i s on t he Boar d of Di r ec t or s of Ma r v e l Co mi c s ?
5. Wha t i s Spi r o A g n e w doi ng n o w?
Not es and Remi nders
Pe opl e ma ke f r equent us e of not es and r e mi nde r s i n e v e r y da y me mo r y t asks.
We are f ami l i ar wi t h t he m i n t he f orm of s hoppi ng l i st s, l ec t ur e not es , and t he
pr over bi al st ri ng ar ound t he f i nger. Some c o mmo npl a c e r e mi nde r s , ho we v e r , may
es c ape our not i ce. For e x a mpl e , we ma y r out i nel y us e a f i nger t o k e e p our pl ac e i n
a t e l e phone book or i n our r eadi ng but ne v e r t hi nk of i t as a me mo r y ai d. We are
e v e n l ess l i ke l y t o not i c e t hat e y e pos i t i on can be us e d as a me mo r y ai d. Wh e n y o u
are f ol l owi ng a pe r s on i n a c r owd, i t i s es s ent i al t o try t o k e e p hi m i n si ght . If y o u
l ose si ght of hi m for a mo me nt , i t i s i mpor t ant t o l ook for hi m c l os e t o t he pl ac e y o u
saw hi m l ast.
T h e sorts of not es we ma k e whi l e doi ng ar i t hmet i c c omput at i ons or s ol vi ng
ot her pr obl e ms are of gr eat pr act i cal i mpor t anc e and i l l ust rat e h o w ai ds t o me mo r y
can al so be ai ds t o pr o b l e m s ol vi ng. Th i nk h o w mu c h har der i t i s t o mul t i pl y 2, 749
by 9, 472 wh e n y o u ha v e t o do al l of t he wor k i n y our he a d t han wh e n y o u c an wr i t e
d o wn t he part i al r esul t s as y o u wor k, or h o w mu c h har der i t ma y be t o s ol ve a
phys i cs or g e ome t r y pr o b l e m wi t hout fi rst dr a wi ng a di agr am. We di s c us s e d
t he f unct i on of di agr ams and ot her f orms of r epr es ent at i ons i n mor e det ai l i n
Chapt e r 1.
I n t he next c hapt er , we wi l l di s c us s t e c hni que s for t aki ng l ec t ur e not es whi c h
can i mpr ov e l e ar ni ng ef f i c i enc y for ma ny st udent s. He r e we wi l l di s c us s j us t one
pract i cal appl i c at i on of r e mi nde r s wh i c h can be he l pf ul t o t hat pi t i abl e s e g me nt of
humani t y k n o wn as " t he a b s e nt - mi nde d" t ho s e p e o p l e wh o r egul ar l y arri ve at
t hei r of f i ces t o di s c ov e r t hat t hei r of f i ce k e y s are at ho me . T h e r e r eal l y i s a di ffer-
e nc e i n t he de g r e e of a bs e nt - mi nde dne s s a mong pe o pl e . I n one s t udy ( Wi l ki ns and
Ba dde l e y , 1978) p e o p l e we r e as ked t o punc h a t i me c l oc k f our t i mes a da y 8: 30
A. M. , 1:00 P. M. , 5: 30 P. M. , and 10:00 P. M. Thi s i s a t ask si mi l ar t o t hat of r e me m-
ber i ng t o t ake y our me d i c i ne at t he ri ght t i me or r e me mb e r i ng t o put mor e coi ns i n
your par ki ng me t e r be f or e t he me t e r ma i d di s c over s h o w l ong i t' s b e e n s i nce y o u
last di d so. T h e s t udy s h o we d cons i s t ent di f f er enc es a mo ng p e o p l e i n t he de g r e e
of l at eness wi t h wh i c h t he y p u n c h e d t he cl ock.
Ca n a bs e nt - mi nde dne s s be h e l p e d ? We ho pe so. I n ma ny c as es , t he t r oubl e
s eems t o r esul t f rom f ai l ur e t o pa y at t ent i on at cer t ai n cri t i cal t i mes . A cri t i cal t i me
i s a t i me j us t be f or e we t ake an act i on t hat i s har d t o r e v e r s e l i k e t r avel i ng t o wor k
or t o Tahi t i ; ma i l i ng a pa c ka g e ( Di d I r e me mb e r t o t ake of f t he pr i c e t ag?); or
r eveal i ng i nf ormat i on ( Oops , I t hi nk t hat was a secret ! ) . On e wa y we can he l p
our s el ves t o not i c e t he cri t i cal t i mes i s t o us e a l andmar k t hat i s c onne c t e d wi t h t he
cri ti cal t i me. For e x a mpl e , t he f ront door i s an e x c e l l e nt l andmar k t o us e for r e me m-
be r i ng wha t we wa nt t o t ake t o wor k. I f we wo u l d j us t st op for a mo me n t at t he front
door t o r e v i e w wha t we wi l l n e e d dur i ng t he day, we c oul d av oi d ma ny annoy i ng
attacks of abs e nt - mi nde dne s s . T h e act of s eal i ng a pa c ka g e i s a good l andmar k for
r emi ndi ng us t o ask ques t i ons l i ke, " Di d I i nc l ude e v e r y t hi ng I s houl d h a v e ? " For
t he abs e nt - mi nde d s ur ge on, s e wi ng t he pat i ent ba c k up s houl d t r i gger ques t i ons
such as, " D o I k n o w wh e r e al l my sci ssors ar e? Or my wr i s t - wat c h? Or my s hoe s ? "
7/0 The Compl et e Problem Solver
Abs e nt - mi nde dne s s ma y stri ke e v e n wh e n we do st op at t he front door and try
t o r e me mb e r wha t we s houl d t ake wi t h us. It' s har d t o r e me mb e r everything we
s houl d t ake. In s uc h si t uat i ons, checklists c an be v e r y us ef ul . A c hec kl i s t i s s i mpl y
a l i st of i t ems we ma y wa nt t o r e me mbe r . A c hec kl i s t for l e a v i ng t he hous e mi ght
l ook l i ke t hi s:
car ke y s
br i ef cas e
of f i ce ke y s
cats ( Ha v e t he y b e e n f ed?)
gar bage (Is i t out ?)
wa l l e t
c he c k bo o k
socks
pant s
I f s ome day y o u f or get a n e w i t em, e. g. , y our pen, y o u can s i mpl y add i t t o t he l i st.
I f t he c he c kl i s t can be as s oci at ed wi t h a l andmar k, e. g. , t aped t o t he front door
whe r e y o u wi l l s e e i t wh e n y o u l e av e , i t i s l i ke l y t o be mor e ef f ect i ve.
SUMMARY
1 . I n s ol vi ng pr obl e ms , we ma k e us e bot h of i nt ernal and of ext er nal me mor y .
2. Mn e mo n i c t e c hni que s are pr oc e dur e s we us e f or put t i ng i nf ormat i on r api dl y
i nt o l ong- t er m me mor y .
a. T h e s e t e c hni que s d e p e n d on f our me mo r y pr i nc i pl es :
I nde x i ng
Swi t c hi ng t o an eas i er me mo r y task
Ch u n k i n g
El abor at i on
b. S e v e n mne mo ni c t e c hni que s , t hei r appl i cat i ons , and t he me mo r y pr i nc i pl es
t he y d e p e n d on are s umma r i z e d i n Fi g ur e 4.
c . I f t he avai l abl e me mo r y t e c hni que s don' t sui t our ne e ds , we s houl d c ons i der
i nv e nt i ng n e w t e c hni que s that do.
3. To f i nd i nf or mat i on i n ext er nal me mor y , e. g. , books , l i br ar i es, we d e p e nd on
i ndexes .
a. Re f e r e nc e l i brari ans c an of t en pr ovi de us wi t h an i nde x t o t he i nf ormat i on we
ne e d.
4. Not e s and r e mi nde r s are ext er nal me mo r y ai ds we cons t r uct for our s el ves .
a. T h e y can be us e d t o ai d us i n l ear ni ng and i n pr obl e m s ol vi ng.
b. T h e y c an be us e d t o r e duc e abs e nt - mi nde dne s s .
REFERENCES
Acronyms, Initialisms, and Abbreviations Dictionary, Si xt h Edi t i on. Det r oi t : Ga l e
Re s e ar c h Co mp a n y , 1 978.
At ki ns on, R. C. " Mn e mo t e c h n i c s i n Se c ond- l a ngua ge Le a r ni ng . " American Psy-
chology, 30, 821- 828, 1 975.
Collier's Encyclopedia. Ne w Yor k: P. F. Col l i e r , 1 975.
Directory of National Unions and Employee Associations. U. S. De pa r t me nt of
Labor . Bur e a u of La b o r St at i st i cs, Bul l et i n #1 9 3 7 .
Encyclopedia Americana. N e w York: Ame r i c a na Cor por at i on, 1 977.
SI X
LEARNING STRATEGIES
Near l y e v e r y o ne us es l ear ni ng st r at egi es, but s ome pe o pl e c l ear l y ma k e bet t er
and mor e e x t e ns i v e us e of t he m t han ot her s. Di f f e r e nc e s i n t he wa y p e o p l e per f or m
i n l ear ni ng si t uat i ons, ei t her i n s chool or on t he j o b, ma y d e p e n d mor e on di ffer-
enc es i n t hei r l ear ni ng st r at egi es t han on di f f er ences i n t hei r abi l i t y. For e x a mpl e ,
Gol dma n and Huds o n ( 1973) f ound t hat c ol l e g e s t udent s wi t h hi g h, mi ddl e , and
l ow gr ade- poi nt ave r age s di f f er ed i n l ear ni ng st r at egi es but not i n abi l i t y.
I f l ear ni ng st r at egi es are s o i mpor t ant , wh y do we hear s o l i t t l e about t he m?
The r e are at l east t wo a ns we r s t o t hi s ques t i on. On e i s t hat t he l ear ni ng st rat egi es
we us e ma y be s o f ami l i ar and aut omat i c t hat we are al mos t una wa r e of t he m. For
exampl e, we al l r ehear s e i nf or mat i on wh e n we wa nt t o r e me mb e r it. I t s e e ms s uc h
a nat ural t hi ng t o do t hat we har dl y t hi nk of i t as a st rat egy. In Cha pt e r 4, t hough,
we saw t hat s ome f i rst -grade c hi l dr e n had not y e t l e a r ne d t o r ehear s e. Wh e n t he y
we r e t aught t o r e he ar s e , t hei r me mo r y per f or manc e i mpr ov e d. Rehear s al , t hen,
i sn' t i nnat e. I t i s a st rat egy we ha v e t o l ear n. Mos t of us l e a r ne d i t so l ong ago,
t hough, t hat we don' t r e me mb e r l ear ni ng it.
T h e s e c ond r eas on we don' t hear mu c h about l ear ni ng st r at egi es i s t hat re-
search on l ear ni ng st r at egi es i s qui t e ne w. Th e r e i s sti l l a gr eat de a l t o l ear n about
t hem. Ho we v e r , we do k n o w t hat i nst ruct i on i n l ear ni ng st r at egi es c an i mpr ov e
peopl e' s abi l i t y t o l ear n.
I n thi s chapt er , we wi l l 1 . di s cus s s e v e n bas i c l ear ni ng st r at egi es, 2. de s c r i be
some pract i cal l ear ni ng s ys t ems whi c h ma k e us e of t hes e bas i c st rat egi es, and
3. des c r i be s ome s pec i al t e c hni que s for l ear ni ng di f f i cul t t opi c s .
BASIC LEARNING STRATEGIES
T h e s e v e n bas i c l ear ni ng st rat egi es we wi l l di s c us s are:
1. T h e st ruct uri ng st rat egy
2. T h e cont ext st rat egy
3. Moni t or i ng
4. I nf er enc i ng
5. Inst ant i at i on
6. Mul t i pl e c odi ng
7. At t ent i on ma na g e me nt
Funda me nt a l r es ear c h unde r l y i ng ma ny of t hes e st r at egi es has al r eady b e e n
de s c r i be d i n Cha pt e r 4.
The Structuri ng Strategy
T h e st rat egy of i nf or mat i on st r uct ur i ng r equi r es y o u t o s ear ch ac t i vel y for
rel at i ons i n t he l ear ni ng mat er i al . T h e rel at i ons ma y r e v e al c at egor i es , hi er ar chi es ,
ne t wor ks , or ot her i nf ormat i on st ruct ures t hat wi l l h e l p y o u t o under s t and and
r e me mb e r t he mat er i al .
For e x a mpl e , s uppos e t hat y o u are r e v i e wi ng for a t est on Cha pt e r 5 by l ear ni ng
t he f ol l owi ng l i st:
1. El abor at i on
2. Di s pl a c e me nt
3. C u e d r ecal l
4. Ret r oac t i ve i nt er f er enc e
5. 7 2
6. T i p of t he t ongue
7. Re c ogni t i on
8. Ma i nt e na nc e r ehear s al
9. Pr oac t i ve i nt er f er enc e
10. Savi ngs
11. Chunk s
12. Un c u e d r ecal l
Ta b l e 1 s hows t he cat egor y st ruct ure of t he l i st, and Fi g ur e 1 s hows its hi er-
archi cal st ruct ure.
T h e c hapt er has a t h e me t h e st ruct ure of huma n me mo r y wi t h s ome maj or
t opi cs unde r t he t he me . T h e t opi cs i n t urn ha v e s ubt opi c s unde r t he m, and t hes e
s ubt opi cs ma y ha v e s ubt opi cs of t hei r o wn. At t he l o we s t l e v e l , we t ypi c al l y f i nd
e xampl e s and s peci f i c s t udi es t hat i l l ust rat e poi nt s ma de i n hi g he r l e v e l s .
In ge ne r al , i t i s a good pr i nc i pl e t o l i st r el at ed t opi cs unde r a s i ngl e he a di ng i n
t he hi er ar chy. For e x a mpl e , t he var i ous t opi cs unde r t he he a di ng " r e t r i e v a l " are
gr oupe d t oge t he r i n Cha pt e r 4. Separ at i ng t hes e t opi cs wo u l d ha v e t wo unf or t unat e
ef f ect s:
1. I t wo u l d be mor e di f f i cul t t o ma ke c ompar i s ons and cont rast s a mong si mi l ar
t opi cs, e. g. , t he di f f er enc e b e t we e n r ec ogni t i on and r ecal l mi ght be mi s s e d.
2. I t wo u l d be har der t o i dent i f y t he hi er ar c hi c al st ruct ure of t he text.
If y o u can' t f i nd t he hi er ar chi cal st ruct ure of a l ec t ur e or t ext , ei t her i t i s poor l y
Tabl e 1. Items Arranged by Cat egori es
Short - t erm
Me mo r y En c o d i n g St or age Ret r i eval
7 2 El abor at i on Ret r oact i ve
i nt er f er ence
T i p of t he t ongue
Un c u e d r ecal l
Chunk s Pr oact i ve
i nt er f er ence C u e d r ecal l
Di s pl a c e me nt
Re c ogni t i on
Ma i nt e na nc e
r ehear s al Savi ngs
const r uct ed or y o u ha v e not f ul l y under s t ood it. I n ei t her c as e, y o u are l i ke l y t o ha v e
di f f i cul t y i n r e me mb e r i ng t he mat er i al .
Us i ng t he st r uct ur i ng st rat egy s houl dn' t be v i e we d s i mpl y as a mat t er of i den-
ti f yi ng st ruct ure. I t c an and s ome t i me s s houl d i nv ol v e r est r uct ur i ng. I f a s e nt e nc e ,
7 76 The Compl et e Problem Solver
Figure 3. Communi cat i ons Net work i n an Imaginary Company
par agr aph, or l ar ger t ext i s har d t o under s t and b e c a us e of poor or gani zat i on, y o u
may n e e d t o r e or gani z e i t i n or der t o under s t and it. Re ade r s of t en do thi s wh e n
r eadi ng v e r y di f f i cul t t ext s ( see Fl o we r , Ha y e s , and Swar t s , 1979) .
Ex a mi ni ng r el at i ons i n t he mat er i al t o be l e ar ne d can l e ad y o u t o di s c ove r mor e
c ompl e x st ruct ures t han hi er ar c hi es . For e x a mpl e , i f we l ook at aut hori t y rel at i ons
i n a c ompa ny , we wi l l f i nd a hi er ar c hy l i ke t hat s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 2. Ho we v e r , i f we
l ook at c ommuni c a t i ons , we are ve r y l i ke l y t o f i nd a c o mpl e x network l i ke t hat
s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 3. T h e ne t wor k di f f ers f rom a hi er ar c hy b e c a us e i t cont ai ns l oops .
For e x a mpl e , t her e i s a c ommuni c at i on l oop f rom t he pr e s i de nt t o A t o F and ba c k
t o t he pr es i dent . I f t her e we r e a si mi l ar aut hori t y l oop, t he c o mp a ny wo u l d be i n b i g
t r oubl e.
Rhetorical Structure
Bart l et t ( 1978) ma de an i mpor t ant pract i cal appl i c at i on of t he st r uct ur i ng strat-
e g y i n t e a c hi ng s t udent s h o w t o prof i t f rom t hei r r e adi ng, by ha v i ng t he m de s c r i be
t he rhetorical structure of t he t ext , or h o w t he aut hor or gani z e d i t t o a c hi e v e its
maj or pur pos e . Fo ur c o mmo n rhet ori cal st ruct ures are de s c r i be d by Me y e r and
Fr e e d l e ( 1978) :
Attribution: Attribution is used to relate a description of a person, pl ace, thing,
event, quality or abstraction of that thing whi ch it descri bes.
Covari ance: Covari ance indicates a causal relationship serving as an antecedent
to another serving as the consequent. . . either the antecedent or the consequent can
be in the superordinate . . . position.
Response: Response has three subtypes. One . . . can be a question and its *
answer. The second has arguments that are a remark and a reply to it. The arguments
of the third are a problem and its solution.
Adversati ve: Adversati ve . . . relates what di d not happen to what did happen,
or what does not exist to what does exist.
Bart l et t ( 1978) has t aught ni nt h- gr ade c hi l dr e n h o w t o i dent i f y rhet ori cal struc-
t ure as a wa y t o i mpr ov e t hei r abi l i t y t o l ear n f rom t hei r r eadi ng. In a ser i es of f i ve
one- hour cl ass s es s i ons , t he st udent s l e ar ne d t o i dent i f y
1. t he mai n i de a of t he pas s age, and
2. wh i c h of t he f our r het or i cal st ruct ures t he aut hor us e d t o ge t t he i de a across.
Learning Strategies 777
Thi s qui z i l l ust rat es t he ski l l s t he st udent s we r e e x pe c t e d t o acqui r e:
Unde r l i ne t he s e nt e nc e c ont ai ni ng t he mai n i dea. Ci r c l e t he t op- l evel organi za-
t i on us e d by t he wr i t er .
1 . Mar t ha wa s wor r i e d about he r heal t h. T h e doct or had t ol d Mar t ha t hat her
s y s t e m was over t axed. As a r esul t she t r i ed t o rest mor e and t o eat at r egul ar
t i mes . She k n e w her l i f est yl e had t o c hange .
a) des cr i pt i on c) pr obl em- s ol ut i on
b) bef or e- as a r esul t d) f avor ed v i e w vs . oppos i t e v i e w
2. Pol l ut i on i s a pr obl e m for our r i ver s. Pol l ut e d r i ver s are e y e s or e s . T h e y are
al so heal t h hazar ds . On e sol ut i on i s t o st op t he d u mp i n g of i ndust r i al was t e.
a) des cr i pt i on c) pr obl e m- s ol ut i on
b) bef or e- as a r es ul t d) f avor ed v i e w vs . oppos i t e v i e w
3. Our cl ass r e uni on wa s he l d l ast year . We s aw ma ny ol d f r i ends t her e. T h e
bus i nes s of t he me e t i ng wa s ke pt t o a mi ni mum. We s pent mos t of our t i me
s oci al i z i ng.
a) des c r i pt i on c) pr obl e m- s ol ut i on
4. De s pi t e t he a r g ume nt t hat s moki ng i s har mf ul , ma ny c l ai m i t i s not so.
Cer t ai nl y, s moki ng has b e e n r el at ed t o l ung c anc er , hi g h bl o o d pr es s ur e,
and l oss of appet i t e. But , for s ome pe o pl e s moki ng ma y r e l i e v e t ens i on.
a) des cr i pt i on c) pr obl e m- s ol ut i on
T h e s t udent s we r e t ol d t hat f i ndi ng t he or gani zat i on (t he r het or i cal st ruct ure)
was t he k e y t o get t i ng t he aut hor' s me s s a g e . To r ecal l t hat me s s a g e , t he y we r e t ol d:
Our strategy i nvol ves two steps. In reading, we find the organization the writer
used. In recal l i ng, we use the same organization. Thi s is a strategy to improve
memory. The strategy is cal l ed usi ng top-level organization.
St udent s wh o had had t hi s t r ai ni ng we r e c o mpa r e d t o a gr oup of st udent s wh o
had not. Bot h gr oups we r e as ke d t o r ead pas s ages s uc h as t hat s ho wn b e l o w. Af t er
r eadi ng, t he subj ect s we r e as ke d t o wr i t e d o wn al l t he y c oul d r e me mb e r about t he
passage. T h e e x pe r i me nt a l gr oup r e me mb e r e d near l y t wi c e as mu c h as t he cont r ol s.
The Earl y Railroads*
Two contrasting vi ews on the usefulness of railroads existed for early Ameri-
cans. Ameri can men of busi ness were qui ck to recogni ze the promise of railroads,
and by 1830 several compani es had been formed to construct railroad lines in the
United States. Both the South Carolina Railroad and the Baltimore and Ohi o Rail-
roads, America' s earliest l i nes, commenced operations in 1830. The first Ameri can
locomotive engi nes were bui l t and del i vered in the same year. Most of the early
railroads were short l i nes t he longest in the Uni ted States was also the longest in
the world, 136 mi l es. Rai l way devel opment proceeded rapidly. In the first six years,
more than a thousand mi l es of track were laid, and railroads began to run trains in
el even states.
In the 1850's, rail servi ce was extended to the Mississippi River. Except for the
bulkiest of goods, railroads became the most economi cal form of transportation
within the Uni ted States. Travel i ng by water bet ween New York Ci ty and Detroit
in the 1850's took ten days; by rail, the same trip requi red only four days.
Railroads were not popular wi th everybody. Farmers compl ai ned that the noise
frightened their cattle, and that sparks from the engi nes set their fields afire. Some
physicians feared that the human body coul d not endure travel at speeds so high as
* From Bartlett, 1978
30 miles an hour. Canal companies tried to keep railroads from building lines that
might compete with canals.
Si nc e k no wi ng t he st ruct ure of t he t ext we are r eadi ng can he l p us t o l earn, i t
makes s ens e t o l ook ac t i vel y for c l ue s t o st ruct ure bef or e we b e g i n r eadi ng. I f we
pr e v i e w t he t ext qui c kl y by r eadi ng i nde xe s , he adi ngs , and t opi c s ent enc es , and
gl anc i ng at pi c t ur es , we c an of t en ant i ci pat e t he mai n t opi c, s ubt opi c s , and t he
aut hor' s gener al appr oac h. T h e c l ue s we us e t o i dent i f y st ruct ure be f or e we r ead are
cal l ed advanced organizers ( Aus ube l , 1960). At t e ndi ng t o t he m c an ma ke l ear ni ng
a good deal easi er .
Si nc e c ue s t o st ruct ure can he l p us wh e n we are r eadi ng, we s houl d r e me mbe r
t o pr ovi de t he m for our r eader s wh e n we are wr i t i ng. Thi s me a ns first, t hat our
wr i t i ng s houl d have st ruct ure, and s ec ond, t hat we t el l t he r eader wha t i t i s. T h e us e
of headi ngs , cl ear par agr aphs , and t opi c s e nt e nc e s can eas e y our r eader s ' task
great l y. Al s o, t her e i s not hi ng di s gr acef ul about t el l i ng your r eader st rai ght out wha t
y o u are up to, e. g. , " Fi r s t , I wi l l di s cus s t he ar gument s for capi t al puni s hme nt , t hen
I wi l l try t o ref ut e e a c h of t he m. " Your r eader ma y we l l appr ec i at e t he he l p.
The Cont ext Strategy
I n t he st ruct ure st rat egy, we sear ch for rel at i ons wi t hi n t he mat eri al t o be
l ear ned. I n t he c ont ext st rat egy, we s ear c h for r el at i ons b e t we e n t he t hi ngs t o
be l e ar ne d and t he t hi ngs we al r eady know. Re c o g ni z i ng s uc h r el at i ons can ma ke
l ear ni ng a gr eat deal easi er . I n Cha pt e r 2, we f ound t hat c hes s mast er s ma ke
ext ens i ve us e of t hei r c he s s k no wl e d g e t o he l p t he m l ear n n e w c hes s posi t i ons.
Wh e n we r ead a puz z l e , we have a muc h eas i er t i me l ear ni ng its det ai l s i f we can
rel at e i t t o si mi l ar pr obl e ms we have s e e n bef or e. I f we al r eady k no w h o w t o fix
l a wn mo we r mot or s, we wi l l have an eas i er t i me l ear ni ng h o w t o fix out boar d
mot or s.
Of t en, t he t hi ngs we wa nt t o l ear n s ugges t a great deal of r el at ed k no wl e dg e .
I n s uc h cas es , we don' t ne e d a cont ext st rat egy be c a us e t he cont ext i s obvi ous .
I n ot her cas es , wh e n t he pr obl e m s e e ms st range or wh e n l i ttl e r el at ed knowl -
e d g e s ugges t s i tsel f, we ma y wa nt t o us e t he cont ext s t r a t e g y t ha t i s, we ma y wa nt
t o s ear ch for anal ogi es or ol d k no wl e d g e t o he l p us l ear n t he n e w mat eri al . Thi s
si t uat i on ma y ari se wh e n we start a n e w cour s e or t ake a n e w j ob. He r e , s ome t i me
s pent s ear c hi ng for r el evant k no wl e d g e ma y pay off hands ome l y .
A si t uat i on i n wh i c h t he cont ext st rat egy i s f r equent l y usef ul i s i n f i ndi ng t he
me a ni ng s of unf ami l i ar wor ds . We have a great deal of k no wl e d g e about wo r d
me a ni ngs i n t he f orm of wo r d roots. I f i t occur s t o us t o us e t hi s k no wl e d g e , we can
of t en gues s t he me a ni ng of a n e w wor d.
Al t houg h ma ny of t he r el evant wor d roots are Lat i n or Gr e e k, one doe s n' t n e e d
t o k no w ei t her of t hes e l anguage s i n or der t o do t he anal ys es . Al l of t he ne c e s s ar y
i nf ormat i on c an be f ound i n any good Eng l i s h di ct i onar y.
I n l ear ni ng f or ei gn l a ngua ge voc abul ar y, one can gues s t he me a ni ng s of wor ds
l i ke ar be (tree) and vi n ( wi ne) by not i c i ng t hei r rel at i ons t o t he roots of t he Eng l i s h
wor ds arbor and vi ne. T h e me a ni ngs of t he Eng l i s h wor ds , of cour s e, may be
l ear ned i n t he s ame wa y . For e x a mpl e , we can gues s t he me a ni ng of t he wor d
pericardial i f we rel at e i t t o roots of wor ds l i ke pe r i me t e r and cardi ac.
Spe l l i ng can al so be ma de eas i er by k n o wl e d g e of wo r d root s. For e xampl e ,
s pel l i ng wor ds l i ke pneumonia, pneumatic, psychology, and psychomotor is eas i er
i f we k now t hat " p n e u mo " i s a root for l ung and " p s y c h o " t he root for mi nd.
Moni tori ng
Ce r t ai nl y one of t he mos t powe r f ul of t he l ear ni ng st rat egi es i s monitoring.
Thi s i s t he st rat egy i n wh i c h l ear ner s t est t he ms e l v e s t o f i nd out wha t t he y have and
have not l ear ned. T h e n t he y us e that i nf ormat i on t o g ui de st udy and pr omot e
l ear ni ng.
On e wa y t o moni t or i s t o t est your s el f after y ou ha v e c o mpl e t e d a uni t of st udy.
For e x a mpl e , after r e adi ng an art i cl e, y o u c oul d wr i t e d o wn al l y o u r e me mb e r about
t he art i cl e and t hen c he c k your r es pons e agai nst t he ori gi nal . Anot he r wa y i s t o ask
y our s e l f ques t i ons while y o u are r eadi ng. As ki ng a ques t i on f oc us es your at t ent i on
on a part of t he t ext and ma ke s i t mor e l i kel y t hat y o u wi l l l ear n t hat part. By as ki ng
y our s e l f ma ny ques t i ons whi l e y o u r ead, y o u s houl d be abl e t o l ear n t he t ext mor e
r api dl y t han i f y ou don' t ask ques t i ons . As we s aw i n Cha pt e r 4, i t ma y be usef ul t o
s pe nd as muc h as 80 pe r c e nt of your st udy t i me i n s uc h sel f - t est i ng act i vi t i es.
Wha t sort of ques t i ons s houl d y o u ask? I f your obj ec t i ve i s j us t t o ge t t he facts,
t he ques t i ons can be qui t e super f i ci al : " Wh y di d Roos e v e l t de c i de t o run as a t hi rd
party c a ndi da t e ? " or, " Wh a t we r e t he na me s of t he first r ai l way c o mp a ni e s ? " I f your
obj ect i ve i s t o eval uat e t he t ext or t o d e e p e n your unde r s t andi ng of it, t hen y o u
shoul d e mpl oy t he inference strategy, wh i c h r equi r es y o u t o ask mor e penet r at i ng
quest i ons.
Inferencing
Thi s st rat egy i s r el at ed t o moni t or i ng be c a us e i t i nv ol v e s as ki ng ques t i ons
about t he mat er i al s t udi ed, and i t i s r el at ed t o c ont ext ual i z i ng be c a us e , t ypi cal l y, i t
expl or es t he r el at i on of ot her k no wl e d g e t o t he mat eri al b e i ng l ear ned. Its obj ec-
t i ve, howe v e r , i s t o gener at e i nf er enc es about t he mat er i al i n or der t o eval uat e its
truth or i mpor t anc e, t o wo r k out its i mpl i cat i ons , or t o d e e p e n under s t andi ng.
Car r yi ng out t hi s st rat egy i nv ol v e s as ki ng pr obi ng ques t i ons , s uc h as: " I s t he aut hor
bi a s e d? " or, " C a n I t hi nk of a c ount e r - e x a mpl e ? " or, " Ho w wo u l d t he ar gume nt
s e e m i f t he r ol es we r e r e v e r s e d ? " I n Cha pt e r 10, we wi l l de s c r i be s ome cri t i cal
t hi nki ng t e c hni que s t hat c an he l p y o u t o f i nd " pe ne t r a t i ng que s t i ons . "
Instantiation
Of t en, wh e n we are ha v i ng t r oubl e unde r s t andi ng s ome t hi ng t hat s ome one i s
t el l i ng us, we wi l l say, " C a n y o u gi ve me an e x a mpl e of t hat ? " Thi s i s an e x a mpl e
of t he instantiation strategy. We saw i n Cha pt e r 4 t hat e x a mpl e s he l p us to l ear n.
I n t he i nst ant i at i on st rat egy, we s eek out e x a mpl e s t hat i l l ust rat e t he mat eri al s we
are t r yi ng t o mast er . We can do t hi s i n t wo wa y s :
1. We can pa y car ef ul at t ent i on t o t he e x a mpl e s t hat ot hers gi v e us i n l ect ur es , i n
t ext books, or i n a ns we r t o ques t i ons s uc h as, " C a n y o u gi v e me an e x a mpl e of
t hat ?" and
2. We can try t o cr eat e e x a mpl e s for our s el ves . It i s c o mmo n for pe o pl e t o do thi s
wh e n t hey are r e a di ng a di f f i cul t text. I n a r e c e nt s t udy by Fl o we r , Ha y e s , and
Swart s (1980), p e o p l e we r e as ked t o t hi nk al oud as t hey r ead a di f f i cul t f eder al
regul at i on and t r i ed t o under s t and it. T h e pr ot ocol s we r e p e p p e r e d wi t h exam-
pl es t he r eader s c r eat ed for t he ms e l v e s i n an effort t o under s t and. He r e i s an
i nst ance.
[ The subj ect r eads " i ne l i g i bl e c onc e r ns , " and t hen says] " S a y t hat i f a f el l ow
has a bar and he' s s el l i ng moons hi ne wh i c h i s not t axed. . . . "
Mul tipl e Codi ng
Th e e s s e nc e of t he mul t i pl e - c odi ng st rat egy i s t o r e pr e s e nt t he i nf ormat i on we
want t o r e me mb e r i n mor e t han one way . We can do t hi s by par aphr asi ng, f or mi ng
i mages , we a v i ng t he mat er i al i nt o a st ory, and by ma ny ot her wa y s . For e x a mpl e ,
suppose we wa nt e d t o r e me mb e r t he i nf ormat i on i n t he f ol l owi ng s ent enc e:
" Br av e Wor m f i ni s hed first; Fi g Ne wt o n, s e c ond; and Ki ng Kong, t hi r d. "
We c oul d par aphr as e t hi s as: " T h e wi n, pl a c e , and s ho w hor s es we r e Br ave Wor m,
Fi g Ne wt o n, and Ki ng Ko ng . " We c oul d f orm an i ma g e of a wo r m wi t h its c hes t
st uck out si t t i ng on a f i g ne wt o n he l d by Ki ng Kong, or we c oul d cr eat e a story about
t he first of a l i ne of br a v e wor ms wh i c h al l by i t sel f at e t wo f i g ne wt ons and a t hi rd
of Ki ng Kong.
An y of t hes e me t hods of mul t i pl e c odi ng s houl d ma k e t he i nf ormat i on easi er t o
r ecal l .
Attenti on Management
Far and a wa y t he mos t i mpor t ant c aus e of f ai l ure t o l ear n i s f ai l ure t o st udy. I f
y o u hav e n' t r ead an art i cl e, y o u ma y we l l e x pe r i e nc e s ome di f f i cul t y i n a ns we r i ng
ques t i ons about it.
We al l ha v e l i mi t e d t i me and we ma y of t en ha v e di f f i cul t y i n f i ndi ng t he t i me
t o do t he r e a di ng t hat i s e x pe c t e d of us. Some pe o pl e , t hough, s e e m t o ha v e mor e
di f f i cul t y t han ot her s. Di f f e r e nc e s i n per f or manc e on t he j o b or i n t he cl as s r oom
ma y d e p e n d mor e on di f f er ences i n t he amount of t i me i nv e s t e d t han on di f f er ences
i n abi l i t y.
S o me p e o p l e ha v e a v e r y poor i de a of wh e r e t hei r t i me goes . Yo u ma y be one
of t hes e. For e x a mpl e , do y o u k no w h o w ma ny hour s a we e k y o u s pe nd r eadi ng t o
l ear n? Do y o u k n o w h o w ma ny hour s y o u s pe nd wa t c hi ng T V ? Do y o u k no w h o w
mu c h of y our t i me i s s pe nt b e i ng pol i t e t o pe o pl e wh o are i nt er r upt i ng wha t y o u
r eal l y wa nt t o do? I f y o u di d know, y o u mi ght be suf f i ci ent l y horri f i ed t o do
s ome t hi ng about it. Ap p e nd i x I des c r i bes s ome pr oc e dur e s t hat c an he l p wi t h t i me
ma na g e me nt .
Concentration
Per haps y o u are put t i ng i n e no ug h t i me on y our l ear ni ng tasks but y ou are
wor ki ng v e r y i nef f i ci ent l y. For e x a mpl e , y o u ma y dut i f ul l y si t d o wn for a l ong st udy
s es s i on and f i nd t hat y o u ha v e t er r i bl e t r oubl e concent r at i ng. Of t en wh e n we are
r eadi ng, we di s c ov e r t hat we ha v e n' t b e e n pa y i ng at t ent i on. Ou r e y e s we r e scan-
ni ng l i ne after l i ne, but our mi nd wa s far away. We ha v e no i de a wha t t he l ast f e w
page s we r e about . Thi s c an be a v e r y a nnoy i ng pr o bl e m wh e n we are t r yi ng t o me e t
a de a dl i ne , s uc h as a t est i n t he mor ni ng or a me e t i ng after l unc h. We can' t spar e
t he t i me but we can' t s e e m t o concent r at e ei t her ! Ap p e nd i x I pr ovi des s ome s ugges -
t i ons t hat can he l p y o u s ol ve concent r at i on pr obl e ms .
STUDY SYSTEMS
St udy s ys t ems are or gani z e d appr oac hes t o l ear ni ng, e s pe c i al l y t o l ear ni ng
f rom r eadi ng. Th e r e are ma ny di f f erent st udy s ys t ems ; t ypi c al l y t he y i nv ol v e s ome
r ul e or s e q u e n c e for a ppl y i ng s ome of t he bas i c l ear ni ng st r at egi es, and ma ny
i nc l ude pr obl e m- s ol v i ng st rat egi es as we l l .
Survey Q3R
On e of t he mos t wi d e l y us e d st udy s ys t ems i s t he Sur v e y Q3 R s ys t em de v i s e d
by Robi ns on ( 1946) . T h e f i ve st eps i n t hi s s y s t e ms u r v e y , que s t i on, read, r eci t e,
and r e v i e wa r e de s c r i be d i n Robi ns on' s o wn s umma r y ( Robi ns on, 1946):
SURVEY 1. Glance over the headings in the chapter to see the few big points
which will be developed. Thi s survey shoul d not take more than a
minute and wi l l show the three to six core ideas around whi ch the rest
of the discussion wi l l cluster. If the chapter has a final summary para-
graph this wi l l also list the ideas devel oped in the chapter. Thi s orien-
> tation wi l l hel p you organize the ideas as you read them later.
Learning Strategies
121
QUESTION 2. Now begi n to work. Turn the first heading into a question. This will
arouse your curiosity and so increase comprehension. It will bring to
mind information already known, thus helping you to understand that
section more quickly. And the question will make important points
stand out whil e explanatory detail is recognized as such. Thi s turning
a heading into a question can be done on the instant of reading the
heading, but it demands a conscious effort on the part of the reader to
make this query for which he must read to find the answer.
READ 3. Read to answer that question, i.e., to the end of the first headed
section. This is not a passive plowing along each line, but an active
search for the answer.
RECITE 4. Having read the first section, look away from the book and try briefly
to recite the answer to your question. Use your own words and name
an example. If you can do this you know what is in the book; if you
can't, glance over the section again. An excellent way to do this recit-
ing from memory is to jot down cue phrases in outline form on a sheet
of paper. Make these notes very brief!
NOW REPEAT STEPS 2, 3 AND 4 ON EACH SUCCEEDING HEADED SECTION.
THAT IS, TURN THE NEXT HEADING INTO A QUESTION, READ TO ANSWER
THAT QUESTION, AND RECITE THE ANSWER HY JOTTING DOWN CUE
PHRASES IN YOUR OUTLINE. READ IN THIS WAY UNTIL THE ENTIRE LESSON
IS COMPLETED.
REVIEW 5. When the lesson has thus been read through, look over your notes to
get a bird's-eye view of the points and of their relationship and check
your memory as to the content by reciting on the major subpoints
under each heading. This checking of memory can be done by cover-
ing up the notes and trying to recall the main points. Then expose each
major point and try to recall the subpoints listed under it.
Sur v e y QR 3 ma k e s us e of t hr ee of t he s e v e n st rat egi es. T h e s ur ve y st ep i s an
exampl e of t he st r uct ur i ng st rat egy. T h e ques t i on s t ep i nv ol v e s moni t or i ng, but
Robi ns on i nt ends i t al so t o f aci l i t at e st r uct ur i ng and t o pr ovi de cont ext by ma ki ng
cont act wi t h pr e vi ous k no wl e dg e . T h e r ec i t i ng st ep i nv ol v e s bot h moni t or i ng and
st ruct uri ng, and t he r e v i e w st ep i s s i mpl y moni t or i ng.
Dansereau' s MURDER System
T h e ac r ony m MU R D E R ( r e me mbe r acr onyms ?) st ands for t he si x parts of
Dans e r e au et al . ' s ( 1979) s t udy s ys t em: Mo o d , Under s t and, Re c a l l , Di g e s t , Ex pa nd,
and Re v i e w.
1. Mood. T h e first s t ep of MU R D E R i s set t i ng t he mo o d for st udy. Da ns e r e a u sees
t wo maj or pr obl e ms i n set t i ng t he ri ght mood. On e i s c r eat i ng a pos i t i ve
a t t i t ude t ha t i s, s o me ho w ov e r c omi ng t he f ear and l oat hi ng of st udy. T h e
s econd i s c opi ng wi t h di st ract i ons, e. g. , your r oommat e pr act i ci ng e l e phant mat -
i ng cal l s. Bot h of t he s e pr obl e ms are at t ent i on ma na g e me nt pr obl e ms , whi c h are
t reat ed i n Ap p e nd i x I unde r t he he a di ng " Conc e nt r a t i on. "
2. Understand. In us i ng t he s ys t em, y o u are e nc our a g e d wh e n first r e adi ng a t ext
t o mark any parts of t he t ext y o u don' t under s t and. Dur i ng t he " Di g e s t " st ep, you
at t end t o t he ma r ke d parts wh i c h are still unc l ear t o y o u after f urt her r eadi ng. I n
l ear ni ng t o us e t he s ys t em, y o u are t r ai ned t o l ocat e t he p r o b l e ma di f f i cul t
wor d, s e nt e nc e , or p a r a g r a p h a n d t o br e ak i t i nt o part s, e. g. , y o u are t r ai ned t o
br eak a di f f i cul t wo r d i nt o its roots. If t he me a ni ng i s sti l l not cl ear, y ou are
e nc our age d t o l ook at t he cont ext of t he di f f i cul t y t o f i nd r el at ed i nf ormat i on, and
i f al l e l s e fai l s, t o c ons ul t out s i de s our ces , e. g. , di ct i onar i es, r es ear ch l i brari ans,
etc. T h e " Und e r s t a nd " and " Di g e s t " st eps, t hen, i nv ol v e a pr obl em- s ol vi ng
s t r a t e g y f r a c t i ona t i ona nd a l ear ni ng s t r a t e g y t he cont ext st rat egy.
3. Recall. Af t er i ni t i al r eadi ng, y o u are i ns t r uct ed t o r ecal l t he i nf ormat i on y o u have
b e e n r e adi ng about and t o t ransf orm i t us i ng one (or pos s i bl y bot h) of t he f ol l ow-
i ng s ubs t r at egi es :
1. Paraphrase-imagery. Thi s i s j us t t he mul t i pl e - c odi ng st rat egy de s c r i be d
abov e .
2. Networking. Yo u i dent i f y rel at i ons i n t he mat er i al s t o be l ear ned, s uc h as
" par t of, " " e x a mp l e of, " and " l e a ds t o. " Thi s i s an i ns t ance of t he st ruct uri ng
st rat egy de s c r i be d a bov e .
4. Digest. Thi s s t ep has al r eady b e e n de s c r i be d unde r " Unde r s t a nd. "
5. Expand. I n t hi s s t ep, y o u ask and a ns we r t hr ee ki nds of ques t i ons .
1 . I f y o u c oul d t al k t o t he aut hor, wha t sorts of ques t i ons or cr i t i ci sms wo u l d y o u
r ai se?
2. Ho w can t he mat er i al be a ppl i e d?
3. Ho w c oul d y o u ma k e t he mat eri al mor e unde r s t andabl e and i nt er es t i ng t o
ot her s ?
Cl e ar l y , t he l e ar ni ng st rat egy i nv ol v e d he r e i s i nf er enc i ng.
6. Review. He r e , y o u r e v i e w your errors wi t h t he i nt ent of f i ndi ng t hei r c aus es and
ma k i ng appr opr i at e c ha ng e s i n your st udy habi t s. T h e r el evant st rat egy he r e i s
moni t or i ng.
T h e MU R D E R s ys t em, t hen, make s us e of al l of t he l ear ni ng st rat egi es e xc e pt
i nst ant i at i on.
Da ns e r e a u t es t ed t he MU R D E R s ys t em by c ompa r i ng 38 c ol l e g e st udent s wh o
t ook a 1 2- we e k l e ar ni ng st rat egi es cl ass wi t h 28 st udent s wh o di d not t ake t he cl ass.
Le a r ni ng pe r f or manc e wa s me a s ur e d t hr ee t i mes i n e a c h gr oup: onc e bef or e t he
cl ass be g a n, onc e hal f way t hr ough, and onc e after t he c our s e wa s c ompl e t e d. T h e
me a s ur e me nt i nv o l v e d r e a di ng a 3, 000 wo r d pas s age and t he n t aki ng a t est on its
cont ent s one we e k l at er. Af t er t rai ni ng, t he e xpe r i me nt al gr oup pe r f or me d b e t we e n
1 4 and 1 8 pe r c e nt bet t er t han t he unt r ai ned cont rol gr oup.
Da ns e r e a u al so t es t ed t he ne t wor ki ng st rat egy s epar at el y f rom t he who l e
s ys t em. He f ound t hat after si x hour s of t rai ni ng, t he e xpe r i me nt al gr oup r e me m-
be r e d 34 pe r c e nt mor e mai n i deas t han t he unt r ai ned cont rol gr oup, but about t he
s ame numb e r of det ai l s .
B. F. Jones and her c ol l e a g ue s ( 1979) have d e v e l o p e d a s t udy s ys t em t o i m-
pr ove t he r e a di ng ski l l s of di s advant age d c hi l dr e n i n t he fifth t hr ough ei ght h gr ades
i n Chi c a g o publ i c s chool s . St udent s are t aught a car ef ul l y s e q u e nc e d set of l ear ni ng
st rat egi es i n a mastery learning f ormat. Mas t er y l ear ni ng me a ns t hat eac h s t udent
mus t ha v e mas t e r e d al l of t he st rat egi es t aught so far, as i ndi c at ed by pas s i ng a t est ,
bef or e b e i ng a l l o we d t o s t udy t he next st rat egy. T h e st r at egi es i nc l ude mul t i pl e
c odi ng, e. g. , v i s ua l i z i ng wor ds i n anal ogi es ; st ruct uri ng, e. g. , di f f er ent i at i ng mai n
poi nt s and det ai l s ; c ont ext ual i z i ng, e. g. , f i ndi ng t he me a ni ng of an unf ami l i ar wo r d
f rom ot her i nf or mat i on i n t he t ext ; and i nf er enc i ng, e. g. , di f f er ent i at i ng opi ni on
f rom f act i n wha t i s r ead.
Jones et al . f i nd t hat t hei r l ear ni ng st rat egi es y i e l d mu c h gr eat er i mpr ov e me nt
i n t he s t udent ' s r e a di ng c ompr e he ns i on scor es t han doe s mor e t radi t i onal i nstruc-
t i on.
SPECIAL TECHNI QUES FOR HARD CASES
I n t hi s s ec t i on, we wi l l s how h o w t he l ear ni ng st r at egi es can be appl i e d i n
l ear ni ng t opi cs wh i c h ma ny pe o pl e f i nd di f f i cul t , e. g. , z ool ogi c al cat egor i es , phys i c s
equat i ons , and cul t ur al hi st ory. Of c our s e, t her e are s o ma ny di f f erent t opi cs t hat we
can' t hope t o c ov e r t he m al l . Ou r i nt ent i on he r e i s s i mpl y t o pr ovi de a f e w i l l ustra-
Learning Strategies
723
t i ons of h o w t he l e ar ni ng st rat egi es can be appl i ed. We hope t hat t hes e exampl es
wi l l he l p y o u t o appl y t he l ear ni ng st rat egi es wh e n y o u e nc ount e r di f f i cul t l ear ni ng
si t uat i ons.
T h e fi rst t opi c wi l l i l l ust rat e t he appl i cat i on of t he st r uct ur i ng and cont ext
st rat egi es.
Learning Cat egori es in Zool ogy
Suppo s e t hat y o u wa nt e d (or ne e de d) t o l ear n mat er i al l i ke t he zool ogi cal
phyl a, cl as s es , and orders wi t h as s oci at ed pr oper t i es and e x a mpl e s , as s hown i n
Ta b l e 2.
At first si ght , t he st range and c ompl e x na me s of t he c at egor i es may s e e m a
t erri bl e barri er t o l ear ni ng. I n fact, i f we us e t he m i n t he ri ght wa y , t he names
b e c o me a k e y t o a great deal of k n o wl e d g e we al r eady ha v e s t o r e d k n o wl e d g e that
can be c onne c t e d t o t he n e w mat er i al t o he l p us i n l e ar ni ng it.
On t he r i ght - hand s i de of Ta b l e 2 are t he roots of t he c at egor y na me s . Some of
t hem, l i ke " c n i d a " and " e c h i n o " are unf ami l i ar t o mos t of us , but ma ny are parts of
wor ds we are al r e ady f ami l i ar wi t h, e. g. , pr ot ot y pe , pyrocanthus (fire t horn) ,
arthritis, dent i st , et c. T h e s e roots s houl d be eas y t o l ear n b e c a us e we c an c onne c t
t hem t o k n o wl e d g e we al r eady have .
Wh e n we k n o w t he me a ni ng s of t he root s, t he c at egor y na me gi ve s us a t humb-
nai l des c r i pt i on of t he ani mal s i n t he cat egor y. Si nc e mol l us me a ns " s of t , " Mol l us c a
s e e ms a v e r y r eas onabl e na me for c l ams and oyst ers. We c an i magi ne wha t t he
Ac a nt hoc e pha l i ( t horny heads ) wi l l l ook l i ke, and we can gue s s t hat l obst er s mi ght
we l l be Ar t hr opoda.
On e of t he mos t i mpor t ant facts about cat egor i es i n z ool og y i s t hat t he y are
hi er ar chi cal l y or gani z e d, as s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 4. We c oul d l ear n t he cat egor i es
wi t hout pa y i ng at t ent i on t o t he hi er ar chy, but l ear ni ng wo u l d be mor e di f f i cul t and
muc h l ess me ani ngf ul . For e x a mpl e , a per s on wh o doe s n' t under s t and t he hi erar-
chi cal or gani z at i on can' t f i gur e out t hat bi r ds are mor e c l os e l y r el at ed t o r ept i l es
t han t o s ponge s .
T h e st ruct ure s ho wn i n Ta b l e 2 ref l ect s s ever al i mpor t ant pr i nc i pl es of z ool ogy.
For e x a mpl e , t he phy l a are or gani z ed by a pr i nc i pl e of c ompl e xi t y. T h e s i mpl es t of
t he phyl as , t he Pr ot ozoa, consi st of s i ngl e c el l s . T h e next l e v e l of c ompl e xi t y i n-
vol ves mul t i c e l l ul ar phy l a l i ke Pori f era and Cni da r i a wh i c h have t i ssues but
no organs. Mo r e c o mp l e x phy l a ha v e or gan s ys t ems of v ar y i ng de g r e e s of el abo-
rat eness.
A s e c ond or gani z i ng pr i nc i pl e for t he phy l a i s t he pr i nc i pl e of enc ephal i z at i on.
By enc ephal i z at i on, we me a n a n i nc r eas i ng i mpor t anc e of t he he ad. As we pr ogr ess
from unor ga ni z e d bl obs t o pe opl e , we f i nd an i nc r eas i ng pr e f e r e nc e for head-f i rst
mot i on, wi t h an i nc r e as i ng concent r at i on of s ens or y s ys t ems and neur al cent er s at
t he head e nd. Si mpl e phy l a l i ke Pr ot oz oa and Cni da r i a s how l i t t l e enc ephal i z at i on.
We f i nd i nc r eas i ng e nc e pha l i z a t i on wi t h i nc r eas i ng c ompl e x i t y as we mo v e from
Pl at yhel mi nt hes t o Anne l i da t o Chor dat a.
Ot he r or gani z i ng pr i nc i pl es for t he cat egor i es i n Ta b l e 2 i nv ol v e c hanges i n
speci f i c organ s ys t ems . Ch a n g e s i n t he di ge s t i ve tract pr ovi de one of t he most
f undament al of t he or gani z i ng s c he me s for t he phyl a. T h e t wo l east c ompl e x phyl a,
Pr ot ozoa and Pori f era, have no di ge s t i v e t ract at al l . T h e mos t c o mpl e x of t he phyl a,
t he Mol l us c s , Anne l i ds , Ar t hr opods , Ec hi no de r ms , and Chor dat e s , have we l l -
de v e l o pe d di ge s t i ve s ys t ems wi t h a t rue c oe l um. A t rue c o e l um i s a space separat-
i ng t he di ges t i ve tract f rom t he b o d y wa l l whi c h i s l i ne d wi t h a s peci al t i ssue cal l ed
per i t oneum. Cni da r i a and Pl at yhe l mi nt he s , whi c h are a st ep a bov e t he s ponges i n
compl exi t y, have a di ge s t i v e tract but no c oe l um. T h e Ac ant hoc e phal a, whi c h l i e
Tabl e 2. Zool ogi cal Cat egori es
Na me Ex a mp l e Me a ni ng
Pr ot ozoa a mo e b a pr ot o ( pr i mi t i ve, or i gi nal ) + z oa (ani mal )
Por i f er a s ponge por os ( passage, por e) + f erre (to bear )
Cni da r i a j el l yf i s h c ni da ( net t l e, s t i ngi ng c el l )
s
Pl a t y he l mi nt he s f l at wor ms pl at y (flat) + he l mi nt he s ( wor m)
Ac a nt hoc e pha l a acant ho ( t horny) + c e pha l us ( head)
Mol l us c a c l am mol l us (soft)
i-H
Anne l i da eart h wo r m annul us (ri ng)
Ar t hr opoda s pi der s , cr abs art hro (j oi nt ed) + poda ( l egs)
Ec hi no de r ma t a starfi sh e c hi no ( spi ny) + de r mus (ski n)
Chor da t a ( Ver t ebr at es) cat , pe o pl e c hor da (st ri ng, c or d)
Ag na t ha l ampr e y s a (no) + gnat hos (j aw)
Pl a c ode r mi (ext i nct ) pl ac o ( pl at es) + de r mus (ski n)
Os t e i c ht hy e s s al mon ost i o ( bony) + i c ht hye s (fi sh)
Cho ndr i c ht hy e s sharks, rays c hondr o ( cart i l age) + i c ht hye s (fish)
u
Amp h i b i a f rogs amphi (on bot h s i des , ar ound)
u
Rept i l i a r ept i l es r ept i l i a (from r e pe r e ; t o cr awl )
Av e s bi r ds avi s (bi rd)
Ma mma l i a ma mma l s ma mma (breast )
Monot r e mat a duc k- bi l l e d pl at ypus mo no ( one) + t r ema ( hol e)
Mar s upi al i a opos s um, kangar oo ma r s upi um (l i ttl e bag)
S-l
1)
I ns ec t i vor a s hr e w i ns e c t um + vor ar e (to de v our )
De r mo pt e r a f l yi ng l e mur s de r mus (ski n) + pt er on ( wi ng)
o
Chi r opt e r a bat s chi r us (hard) + pt er on ( wi ng)
Ede nt at a ant eat er s, sl ot hs e ( wi t hout ) + de nt um (t eet h)
Pr obos c oi di a e l e phant s pr obos c i s
3
era
ro
b e t we e n t he Pl at y he l mi nt he s and t he Mol l us c s , have a p s e u d o c o e l u mt h a t i s, a
s pace whi c h i s l i ke a c o e l um but whi c h i s not l i ne d wi t h pe r i t one um.
I n t he s ame wa y t hat t he di ge s t i ve s ys t em pr ov i de s g r oupi ng and or der i ng for
t he phyl a, t he ci r cul at or y s ys t em pr ovi des gr oupi ngs and or der i ng for t he cl asses of
ver t ebr at es. Fi s h have t wo- c ha mbe r e d heart s, amphi bi ans ha v e t hr e e - c hambe r e d
heart s, and r ept i l es , bi r ds , and ma mma l s have f our - c hamber ed heart s.
I n gener al , t he var i ous or gani z i ng pr i nc i pl es s uc h as e nc e pha l i z a t i on and c om-
pl exi t y gr oup or der t he cat egor i es i n wa y s t hat are c ons i s t ent wi t h e a c h ot her and
wi t h an over al l pr i nc i pl e of evol ut i onar y de v e l o pme nt .
I n z ool ogy, t hen, unde r s t andi ng t he st ruct ure of t he c at egor i es i s c l os el y
r el at ed t o unde r s t andi ng t he s c i e nc e i tsel f.
To s ee t hat t he l ear ni ng st rat egi es r eal l y he l p t o l ear n z ool ogy, c ons i der thi s
e xampl e . Suppos e y o u we r e t o hear t hat t he i magi nar y phy l um " Pl a t y p o d a " wa s
c ons i de r e d t he i mme di a t e evol ut i onar y de s c e nda nt of t he Anne l i da . You wo ul d
k now i mme di a t e l y t hat t he me mb e r s of t he phy l um are c har ac t er i z ed by flat f eet ;
that t hey are mode r at e l y c ompl e x , wi t h we l l - de v e l o pe d or gan s ys t ems , a def i ni t e
head-t o-t ai l or i ent at i on, and a di ges t i ve s ys t em wi t h a t rue c oe l um. Tha t i s r eal l y
qui t e a l ot of i nf or mat i on to get f rom a na me and a pos i t i on i n an or der i ng.
Th e s e l e ar ni ng st r at egi es are ve r y i mpor t ant i n bi ol ogi c al s c i enc es , me di c i ne ,
geol ogy, c hemi s t r y, and ma ny ot her areas of k no wl e d g e .
LEARNING MATHEMATICAL FORMULAS
Suppos e t hat y o u have an as s i gnme nt t hat r equi r es y o u t o l ear n f ormul as of t he
sort t ypi c al l y f ound i n phy s i c s or e ng i ne e r i ng t ext s. Th e r e are a numb e r of pr oce-
dur es y ou c an us e t o ma k e t hi s task eas i er and mor e me ani ngf ul . We wi l l des c r i be
one whi c h ma k e s us e of t he mul t i pl e c odi ng and cont ext st rat egi es.
Physical Interpretation of Equations
On e of t he mos t powe r f ul pr oc e dur e s for l ear ni ng and unde r s t andi ng equat i ons
i s t he pr oc es s of phy s i c a l i nt er pr et at i on. By phys i c al i nt er pr et at i on we me a n t he
pr oces s i n wh i c h p e o p l e ma k e us e of k n o wl e d g e of a phys i c al si t uat i on, per haps i n
t he f orm of s ke t c he s or vi s ual i mage s , t o he l p t he m unde r s t and or l ear n an equat i on.
On e wa y we can us e phys i c al i nt er pr et at i on i s t o he l p us r e me mb e r whe t he r a
quant i t y s houl d be pl a c e d i n t he numer at or or de nomi nat or of an equat i on.
Bef or e de s c r i bi ng h o w thi s wor ks , l et me me nt i on a pr oper t y of equat i ons
whi c h t he mat h hat ers i n t he a udi e nc e ma y ei t her ha v e f orgot t en or ne v e r l ear ned
i n t he first pl ac e . Co ns i de r t hi s arbi t rary equat i on:
(A B) + C
( D + E) F
Ho w doe s X c ha ng e wi t h A, B, C, D, E, and F?
T h e f act I wa nt y o u t o not i ce i s t hat
1. X get s bigger as A, B, and C get bi g g e r because those quantities are in t he
numer at or , and
2. X get s smaller as D, E, and F get bi g g e r because those three quantities are
i n t he denomi nat or .
No w, s uppos e t hat y o u wa nt e d t o r e me mb e r t he e quat i on for t he f orce of gravi t y
b e t we e n t wo obj ect s. Yo u k no w t hat t he f orce, F, i s e qua l t o s ome c ombi nat i on of
G, and const ant , M1 and M2 , t he mas s es of t he obj ect s, and r , t he di s t ance b e t we e n
t hem. Yo u t hi nk i t mi g ht be
Phy s i c a l i nt er pr et at i on mi ght i nv ol v e i ma gi ni ng our s e l ve s f l oat i ng i n s pac e hol di ng
t wo l ar ge g l obe s apart. I f ei t her of t he g l obe s we r e v e r y he a v y , we wo u l d e x pe c t t hat
i t wo u l d be har der t o hol d t he m apart t han i f bot h we r e l i ght . Si nc e f orce i ncr eas es
as ei t her of t he mas s es ( M' s) i nc r eas es , t he mas s es mus t be i n t he numer at or . ( Why?)
As we pus h t he g l obe s f art her apart , t he f orce of at t ract i on b e t we e n t he m wi l l
de c r e as e as t he f orce of at t ract i on b e t we e n t wo magne t s de c r e a s e s as we pul l t he m
apart. Si nc e f orce de c r e a s e s as di s t anc e, r, i nc r eas es , r mus t be i n t he denomi nat or .
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?
) GMM2
Of t he t hr ee equat i ons a bov e , onl y (b), F = , sat i sf i es t hes e rel at i ons. It
i s, i n fact, t he c or r ec t e quat i on.
r
A sl i ght l y mor e c o mpl e x e x a mpl e i nv ol v e s t he e quat i on for t he capaci t y of a
c ondens er :
4TTD
A c onde ns e r i s a de v i c e for st ori ng an el ect r i cal c har ge. It consi st s of t wo met al
pl at es pl a c e d c l os e t o e a c h ot her but not t ouc hi ng, as s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 5. A con-
de ns e r wor ks , t hat i s, st ores el ect r i ci t y, mor e eas i l y t han say, t he av e r age door knob,
for t wo r eas ons :
Figure 5. A Di agram of a Condenser
1 . Char ge s of t he s ame si gn r e pe l e a c h ot her and t he y r e pe l mor e st r ongl y t he
cl oser t hey are. The r e f or e , i t i s mor e di f f i cul t t o put a c har ge ont o a pl at e wi t h
a smal l area, wh e r e t he el ect r ons are c r o wde d, t han ont o a pl at e wi t h a l ar ge area
whe r e t he el ec t r ons c an s pr ead out .
2. Cha r g e s of oppos i t e si gn attract e a c h ot her , and t he y attract mor e st rongl y t he
c l os er t he y are. T h e f act t hat t he oppos i t e char ges are c l os e t oget her i n a con-
de ns e r me a ns t hat t her e i s an at t ract i ve f orce hol di ng t he c har ge on t he con-
de ns e r wh i c h i n part count er act s t he f orces by wh i c h t he c har ges of t he s ame
ki nd on e a c h pl at e r e pe l e a c h ot her. No w, bac k t o t he equat i on:
C -
k A
4TTD
T h e capaci t y of t he c onde ns e r , C, i s a me as ur e of h o w eas y i t i s t o pl ac e a g i v e n
c har ge on t he c onde ns e r . A i s t he area of t he pl at es and D i s t he di s t ance b e t we e n
t hem, ( k i s a cons t ant wh i c h var i es wi t h t he mat er i al b e t we e n t he pl a c e s and won' t
c onc er n us her e. ) I t i s c l ear f rom wha t we ha v e sai d a bov e t hat c apac i t y mus t
i ncr eas e as t he ar ea of t he pl at es i nc r eas es and as t he di s t ance b e t we e n t he pl at es
dec r eas es . A t her ef or e mus t be i n t he numer at or of t he e quat i on and D i n t he
denomi nat or .
Phy s i c al i nt er pr et at i on c an al so he l p us l ear n t he val ue s of const ant s i n equa-
t i ons. Co ns i d e r t he e quat i on for t he v o l ume of a s pher e:
V = - 7T r
3
3
I s t he cons t ant 4/3w r e as onabl e ? To es t i mat e wha t t he cons t ant ought t o be , i magi ne
t hat t he s phe r e i s i ns i de a c ub e j us t 2r on a s i de, as s ho wn i n Fi g ur e 6. T h e s pher e
A
Figure 6. Sphere Inside a Cube From Two Angl es
Learning Strategies
729
j ust t ouc he s t he c u b e at a f e w poi nt s. Th e r e i s a fai r a mount of e mpt y s pac e b e t we e n
t he s phe r e and t he c ub e . We mi ght es t i mat e t hat hal f of t he s pac e i ns i de t he c ub e
i s o c c upi e d by t he s pher e. No w, si nce t he si de of t he c u b e i s 2r, its v o l ume i s
(2r)
3
= 8r
3
The r e f or e , we es t i mat e t hat t he v o l ume of t he s phe r e i s r oughl y hal f of t hat , or
4r
3
No w s i nc e TT i s appr oxi mat el y 3, 4/3-n- i s appr oxi mat el y 4, wh i c h i s about ri ght .
I n t he s ame wa y , c ons i de r i ng t he e quat i on for t he surf ace ar ea of t he s pher e,
A = 47r r
2
we can ask whe t he r or not t he const ant 4TT i s r e as onabl e . To es t i mat e t he cor r ect
v al ue , i magi ne a s quar e 2r on a s i de i nt o wh i c h t he s phe r e wi l l j us t fit, as s ho wn i n
Fi g ur e 7. Thi s s quar e has an area of
(2r)
2
= 4r
2
No w i magi ne t r yi ng t o c ov e r t he s pher e wi t h t he s quar e. By not i ng t hat one s quar e
won' t c ov e r e v e n a hal f of t he s phe r e , we mi ght es t i mat e t hat i t wi l l t ake about t hr ee
squar es t o c ov e r t he s phe r e . T h e total area, t he n, wo u l d be a bout
3 t i mes 4r
2
Thus , 47r r
2
i s a bout ri ght .
T h e me t hod of phy s i c a l i nt er pr et at i on wor ks we l l for es t i mat i ng ma ny const ant s.
Tr y t o appl y i t i n t he f ol l owi ng exer c i s es .
Exercises
1. Us e phys i c al i nt er pr et at i on t o s how t hat t he const ant s i n t he f ol l owi ng equat i ons
are about ri ght .
C = 27rr
whe r e C i s t he c i r c umf e r e nc e of a ci r cl e and r i s its r adi us.
V = l/3-7rr
2
h
whe r e V i s t he v o l u me of a ri ght ci r cul ar c one , r i s t he r adi us of its bas e , and
h is its hei ght .
Learning Cul tural History
I n f i el ds l i ke z ool og y and phy s i c s wh i c h ha v e we l l - d e v e l o p e d t heor i es , i t i s
rel at i vel y eas y t o f i nd st rong or gani z i ng pr i nc i pl es t o ai d l ear ni ng and c ompr e he n-
si on. I n t he huma ni t i e s , h o we v e r , wh e r e t heor i es are not as we l l de v e l o pe d, orga-
ni z i ng pr i nc i pl es ma y be har der t o f i nd. Co ns i de r t he t ask of l e ar ni ng i nf ormat i on
about cul t ural hi st ory, t hat i s, i nf ormat i on about t he r el at i ons of art, s c i e nc e , mus i c ,
pol i t i cs, et c. , over a pe r i od of t i me . We c an ge t he l p i n or gani z i ng s uc h mat eri al by
rel at i ng i t t o arti sti c mo v e me nt s s uc h as cl as s i ci s m or r omant i c i s m, t o r el i gi ous
mov e me nt s , s uc h as t he Ref or mat i on or t he c ount er - Ref or mat i on, or t o pol i t i cal
event s , s uc h as t he s uc c e s s i on of t he Bri t i sh monar c hs . Of t en pe o pl e s e e m t o appl y
s uch or gani z i ng pr i nc i pl e s v e r y nar r owl y. Th u s , a per s on ma y k n o w t hat bar oque
mus i c pr e c e de d r omant i c mus i c and t hat Loui s XI V p r e c e d e d Na pol e on, but he may
have no i de a wha t sort of mus i c wa s b e i ng c o mpo s e d dur i ng ei t her man' s r ei gn.
I n gener al , c ol l e g e st udent s s e e m t o ha v e di f f i cul t y or gani z i ng pe o pl e and
event s i n t i me. T h e t est s ho wn i n Ta b l e 3 wa s admi ni s t e r e d t o t he f r es hman cl ass
HI S T ORY T E S T : I N S T R U C T I O N S
Thi s i s a t est of y our abi l i t y t o i dent i f y
t he t i mes of hi st or i cal l y i mpor t ant
pe opl e .
T h e t est s heet cont ai ns a t i me l i ne
e x t e ndi ng f rom 1 1 00 AD t o 1900 AD
and a l i st of 51 na me s . Tr y t o i dent i f y
t he t i me of e a c h of t he pe o pl e on t he l i st
by wr i t i ng t he n u mb e r of t he per s on
(1 for Bac h, 2 for Da nt e , et c. ) at a poi nt
on t he t i me l i ne wh i c h c or r es ponds
t o t he t i me at wh i c h t he per s on wa s
Tabl e 3. History Test Results
Abs ol ut e
Pe r c e nt a g e aver age
of s t udent s error i n
1 1 00
1200
r e c og ni z i ng year s
1. Ba c h
9 9 % 1 1 7
2. Da nt e
94 1 95
3. Lo ui s XI V
93 79
4. Gi ot t o
26 109
5. Hi e r o ny mus Bo s c h 20 1 40
6. Ma r c o Pol o
99 1 20
7. Sha ke s pe a r e 100 73
8. Na po l e o n 99 67
9. El i z a be t h I 93 95
1 0. Gu t e nb e r g 64 1 39
1 1 . Di s r ae l i
58 60
1 2. Cr o mwe l l 86 89
1 3. Be n Fr ankl i n 100 1 3
1 4. Va n Go g h 98 1 50
1 5. La v oi s i e r 40 102
1 6. Moz ar t 98 1 40
1 7. Ma c hi a v e l l i 7 7 1 1 2
1 8. Re mbr a ndt
98 1 05
1 9. Da r wi n 99 64
20. Jane Aus t e n
60 43
2 1 . Wa g ne r
70 1 01
22. Ne wt o n 99 1 33
23. Scarl at t i
24 1 48
24. Ch a u c e r 90 1 26
1800 -
an adul t . As an e x a mpl e , n u mb e r 5 1 ,
Ge o r g e Wa s hi ng t on, has al r eady b e e n
pl a c e d on t he t i me l i ne. An y t i me
wh i c h fal l s b e t we e n a per s on' s t we n-
t i et h bi r t hday and hi s deat h wi l l be
c ount e d as correct .
I f y o u do not r e c og ni z e a na me , cross
out t hat na me . I f y o u do r e c og ni z e a
na me , put i t s ome pl a c e on t he t i me
l i ne, e v e n i f y o u ha v e t o gues s .
25. Ti nt or et t o
26. He nr y VI I I
27. Co pe r ni c us
28. De l a c r oi x
29. Ga l i l e o
30. Mi l t on
3 1 . Mar t i n Lut he r
32. Ga i ns bor oug h
33. De b u s s y
34. Ve r me e r
1 3 0 0 35. Fi e l di ng
36. Dos t oi e v s ki
37. Va n E y c k
38. Le o na r do da Vi nc i
39. Be e t h o v e n
40. Hogar t h
4 1 . Ri c har d t he Li onhe a r t e d
42. Te nny s o n
43. El Gr e c o
44. Ma r i e Ant oi net t e
45. Go y a
46. De s c a r t e s
47. By r on
48. Ca l v i n
49. Jonat han Swi f t
50. Tho ma s Aqui na s
5 1 . Ge o r g e Wa s hi ng t on
1400 1500
20 1 5 5
100 91
91 1 63
38 1 25
96 1 7 5
7 1 1 26
98 1 20
41 104
65 1 41
37 94
36 95
7 3 66
45 2 1 0
98 90
99 1 32
2 5 1 28
94 1 7 6
87 1 27
70 1 22
96 1 1 5
60 1 26
83 1 43
77 93
86 1 1 9
82 68
67 207
1700 - -
1600
ent er i ng Ca r ne g i e - Me l l on' s Co l l e g e of Huma ni t i e s and Soci al Sc i e nc e s i n Se p-
t ember , 1 973.
Ho w di d t he humani t i e s f r e s hme n do? Fi rst , e v e r y o ne r e c o g ni z e d t he na me of
Benj ami n Fr ankl i n. Fur t he r mor e , near l y t hr ee- quar t er s we r e abl e t o pl ac e hi m
accur at el y on t he t i me s cal e. Ot he r hi s t or i c . per s ons wh o we r e uni ver s al l y rec-
og ni z e d we r e Sha ke s pe a r e , He nr y VI I I , Bac h, Na po l e o n, Ne wt o n , Da r wi n, and
Be e t hov e n. Ho we v e r , t he av e r age error i n pl ac i ng pe o pl e on t he t i me scal e was i n
exc es s of a c e n t u r y a n d t hi s wa s j us t for pe o pl e r e c og ni z e d. Mo r e t han a quart er
of t he s t udent s di d not r e c og ni z e t he na me s of By r on, Mi l t on, Wa g ne r , El Gr e c o,
and De b u s s y , and mor e t han 75 pe r c e nt f ai l ed t o r e c og ni z e Scarl at t i and Ti nt or et t o.
T h e j udg me nt s r e v e al a cur i ous " t i me wa r p " i n t he s t udent s ' pe r c e pt i on of
hi st ory. Fa mo us c ompos e r s as a gr oup are pl a c e d about 140 year s ear l y and f amous
sci ent i st s are pl a c e d about 130 year s earl y. I n cont rast , pol i t i cal and r el i gi ous
l eader s are pl a c e d about 45 year s l at e.
T h e ma g ni t ude of t he wa r p s ugges t s t hat t her e i s s ome t hi ng f aul t y i n t he
st udent ' s pe r c e pt i on of hi s cul t ur e. Af t er al l , a s l i ppage of si x or s e v e n gener at i ons
make s s ome v e r y s ur pr i s i ng c ont empor ar i es . Fo r e x a mpl e , t he aver age j udg me nt s
ma ke De b u s s y and Fr ankl i n c ont e mpor a ne ous , and t he y ma ke Ne wt o n a f e w year s
ol der t han He nr y VI I I .
On e appr oac h t o st r uct ur i ng a bo dy of k n o wl e d g e s uc h as t hi s i s t o pr ovi de a
set of l andmar ks . I n l e ar ni ng our wa y ar ound a ci t y, we t ypi c al l y ma ke us e of t al l
bui l di ngs , par ks , or ot her di s t i nc t i ve f eat ures t o k e e p us or i ent ed t o t he over al l pl an
of t he ci t y ( Ly nc h, 1960). I n t he s ame wa y , we can pr ov i de our s e l ve s wi t h l and-
mar ks for l e ar ni ng cul t ur al hi st ory. T h e mat ri x s ho wn i n Ta b l e 4 i s a f r amewor k of
l andmar ks for l e ar ni ng t he r el at i ons of art, s c i e nc e , and pol i t i cs b e t we e n 1400 and
1900. I t i s or g a ni z e d by t i me and by f i el d. I n cons t r uct i ng t he mat ri x we di v i de d
t i me i nt o 50- year i nt er val s and de f i ne d si x maj or f i el ds. For e a c h t i me i nt er val , we
t r i ed t o f i nd a not abl e i ndi v i dua l i n e a c h f i el d wh o ma de hi s mos t i mpor t ant cont ri -
but i on dur i ng t hat t i me i nt er val . Th u s , Moz ar t wa s c hos e n as a c ompos e r act i ve
b e t we e n 1 750 and 1800 and Ga l i l e o, as a sci ent i st act i ve b e t we e n 1600 and 1650.
Whi l e t he 50- year i nt er val pr ov i de s onl y a rat her c r ude s peci f i cat i on of t i me , we
b e l i e v e t hat st udent s us i ng t he mat ri x s houl d be abl e t o ma k e t i me es t i mat es wh i c h
are c ons i de r abl y mor e ac c ur at e t han t he st udent s we t es t ed wh o we r e i n error on
t he a v e r a ge by mor e t han a cent ur y.
T h e wo r k i nv o l v e d i n l ear ni ng a mat ri x s uc h as t hat s ho wn i n Ta b l e 4 i s
c ons i de r abl e . To ma k e t he t ask of l ear ni ng i t a bi t eas i er and mor e pal at abl e, we
ha v e pr o v i de d t he l i st of c onne c t i ons s ho wn i n Ta b l e 5. * T h e s e c onne c t i ons rel at e
pai rs of p e o p l e i n t he mat ri x t hr ough an e as y - t o- r e me mbe r bi t of bi ogr aphi c al
i nf or mat i on. For e x a mpl e , k no wi ng t hat Vol t ai r e' s mi st r ess t r ansl at ed Ne wt o n' s
wor ks i nt o Fr e nc h ma k e s i t eas i er t o r e me mb e r t hat t he t i me of Vol t ai r e c l os e l y
f ol l owe d t hat of Ne wt o n.
T h e mat ri x pr ov i de s a f r amewor k for r el at i ng pe o pl e and e v e nt s i n cul t ur al
hi st ory and t he c onne c t i ons are an ai d i n l ear ni ng t he mat ri x. On c e t he mat ri x has
b e e n l e a r ne d i t c an he l p us t o or gani z e k n o wl e d g e we ha v e wh i c h i s not c ont ai ned
i n t he mat ri x. Mo s t of us ha v e at l east s ome i nf or mat i on t hat c an be r el at ed t o t he
mat ri x. Fo r e x a mpl e , we ma y k n o w t hat Mar i e Ant oi net t e k n e w Moz ar t as a c hi l d
or t hat s he wa s b e h e a d e d i n t he Fr e nc h Re vol ut i on. We ma y k n o w t hat t he Bri t i sh
c he mi s t Pr i es t l y wa s i nv o l v e d i n a c ont r over s y wi t h Lavoi s i er . T h e s e facts wo u l d
al l ow us t o i dent i f y t hes e pe o pl e as f i gur es of t he l at e 1700' s and as c ont empor ar i es
of Kant and Go e t he . Fur t her , k no wi ng t he mat ri x c an he l p us t o r el at e n e w i nf orma-
t i on t o wha t we al r eady k no w. Wh e n we hear , for e x a mpl e , t hat t he great pl a g ue
*Because of its length, Tabl e 5 has been placed at the end of this chapter, followed by Tabl e 6.
Tabl e 4. A History Matri x
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
Musi c (M)
Rel i gi on (R)
Phi l osophy Sci ence (S) Literature (L) Art (A)
Politics (P)
Wars
John Dunst abl e Ni col as of Cusa Gut enberg Deat h of Chaucer Fra Angel i co Joan of Arc
1369- 1453 1401- 1464 1398-1468 1400 1400- 1455 1412- 1431
Josquin Des
Prez
1440- 1521
Torquemada
1420-1498
Col umbus
1451- 1506
Leonardo da
Vi nci
1452- 1519
Lorenzo de'
Medi ci
1449-1492
Thomas Tal l i s Martin Lut her Coperni cus Thomas More Mi chel angel o Henry VI I I
1505- 1585 1483- 1546 1473- 1543 1478- 1535 1475- 1564 1491- 1547
Palestrina Gi ordano Bruno Gi l bert Shakespeare El Greco El i zabet h I
1525- 1594 1547- 1600 1540-1603 1564- 1616 1548- 1614 1533- 1603
Mont everde Rene Descartes Gal i l eo John Mi l ton Rembrandt Ol i ver Cromwel l
1567- 1643 1596- 1650 1564- 1642 1608-1674 1606-1669 1599- 1658
Henry Purcel l
1659- 1695
Benedi ct
Spi noza
1632- 1704
Newt on
1642- 1727
Restoration
Comedy
Vermeer
1632- 1675
Loui s XI V
1638- 1715
J. S. Bach
1685- 1750
George
Berkel ey
1685- 1753
Benjamin
Franklin
1706- 1790
Voltaire
1694- 1754
Hogarth
1697- 1764
Peter the Great
1672- 1725
W. A. Mozart
1756- 1791
Emanuel Kant
1724-1804
Lavoi si er
1743- 1794
Goet he
1749- 1832
Jacques Davi d
1748- 1825
Ameri can and
French
Revol uti ons
L. Beet hoven J. S. Mi l l Faraday Balzac Joseph Turner Napol eon
1770- 1827 1806-1873 1791- 1867 1799- 1850 1 775- 1 851 1769- 1821
Tchai kovsky
1840-1893
Karl Marx
1818- 1883
Charl es Darwi n
1809-1882
Tol stoy
1828- 1910
Vi ncent Van
Gogh
1853-1890
Queen Victoria
1819- 1901
whi c h ki l l e d mor e t han 1 5 pe r c e nt of t he popul at i on of L o n d o n oc c ur r ed i n 1 695,
we r eal i ze t hat i t c oul d ha v e ki l l e d bot h Pur c e l l and Ne wt o n.
T h e t e c hni que of us i ng a mat ri x of l andmar ks c an, of c our s e, be a ppl i e d t o ot her
areas of hi st ory s uc h as Ame r i c a n hi st ory, mus i c hi st or y ( Tabl e 6), and l i t erary
hi st ory. I t can al so be a ppl i e d t o t opi cs i n wh i c h t i me i s not an i mpor t ant di me ns i on,
as i n l ear ni ng one' s wa y about a ci t y.
SUMMARY
We ha v e de s c r i be d s e v e n bas i c l ear ni ng st r at egi es, e a c h of wh i c h can pr ovi de
us c ons i de r abl e he l p i n l ear ni ng. T h e s e are:
1. T h e st r uct ur i ng st rat egy
2. T h e c ont ext st r at egy
3. Moni t or i ng
4. I nf e r e nc i ng
5. I nst ant i at i on
6. Mul t i pl e c odi ng , and
7. At t ent i on ma na g e me nt .
We ha v e de s c r i be d t hr ee s t udy s ys t ems t hat c o mb i ne s ever al bas i c l ear ni ng
st rat egi es i n or g a ni z e d appr oac he s t o st udy. T h e s ys t ems we de s c r i be d are:
1 . T h e Sur v e y Q3 R s ys t em
2. Da ns e r e a u' s MU R D E R s ys t em, and
3. Jones et al . ' s mas t er y l ear ni ng s ys t em.
Fi nal l y, we de s c r i be d t hr ee appl i cat i ons of t he l ear ni ng st rat egi es t o har d
c as es :
1. Le a r ni ng z ool ogi c al c at egor i es
2. Le a r ni ng f or mul as i n phy s i c s , and
3. Le a r ni ng cul t ur al hi st ory.
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Me a ni ng f ul Ve r ba l Mat e r i al . " Journal of Educational Psychology, 51, 267- 272,
1960.
Bart l et t , B. J. Top-level Structure as an Organizational Strategy for Recall of Class-
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Da ns e r e a u, D. F. , Mc Do n a l d , B. A. , Col l i ns , K. W. , Gar l and, J., Hol l e y , C. E. , Di e k -
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Fl o we r , L. S. , Ha y e s , J. R. , and Swar t s , H. Revising Functional Documents: The
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Go l dma n, R., and Huds o n, D. A. " A Mul t i var i at e Anal ys i s of Ac a d e mi c Abi l i t i es and
St rat egi es for Suc c e s s f ul and Uns uc c e s s f ul Co l l e g e St udent s i n Di f f er ent Maj or
Fi e l ds . " Journal of Educational Psychology, 65, 364- 370, 1 973.
Jones , B. F. , Mons aas , J. A. , and Kat i ms , M. " I mpr o v i ng Re a di ng Co mpr e he ns i o n:
Emb e d d i n g Di v e r s e Le a r ni ng St r at egi es Wi t hi n a Mas t er y Le a r ni ng Inst ruc-
Tabl e 5. Bi ographi cal Not es
1400-1450
M John Duns t a bl e
Nationality: Br i t i sh
Occupation: Co mp o s e r
Connection: Fo ug ht wi t h t he Bri t i sh ar mi es i n Fr a nc e agai nst Joan of
Arc.
R Cardinal Nicolas of Cusa
Nationality: Ge r ma n
Occupation: Roma n Cat hol i c pr el at e, mat he mat i c i an, and phi l os opher .
Connection: Sug g e s t e d t hat t he eart h mi g ht mo v e ar ound t he sun. Sug-
ge s t e d me a s ur i ng t he s p e e d of f al l i ng bodi e s wi t h a wat e r
c l oc k c ent ur i es bef or e Galileo di d.
S Johann Gutenberg
Occupation: De v e l o p e d pr i nt i ng pr es s wi t h mo v a b l e t ype. He o p e ne d
t he wa y for wi de s pr e a d l i t eracy.
L Death of Chaucer
Appe a r a nc e of mode r n Eng l i s h.
A Fra Angelico
Nationality: I t al i an
Occupation: Pai nt er of c hur c h f r es coes .
Connection: Fr e s c o e d t he Fl or e nt i ne San Ma r c o Monas t er y, whi c h wa s
r ec ons t r uc t ed by t he or der of Co s i mo de ' Me di c i , f at her of
Lorenzo de' Medici (+1).
P Joan of Arc
Nationality: Fr e nc h
Occupation: L e d Fr e nc h ar my t o vi ct or y agai ns t t he Bri t i sh. De c l a r e d
a wi t c h and b ur ne d at t he st ake.
1450-1500
M Josquin Des Prez
Nationality: Fr e nc h- Be l g i a n
Occupation: Co mp o s e r of t he Re nai s s anc e .
Connection: Martin Luther's f avori t e c ompos e r ( +1 ) .
t i onal For ma t . " Pa pe r pr e s e nt e d at t he Annua l Me e t i n g of t he Ame r i c a n Educ a -
t i onal Re s e a r c h As s oc i at i on, San Fr anc i s c o, Apr i l , 1 979.
Ly n c h , K. The Image of the City. Ca mbr i dg e : Te c h n o l o g y Pr es s , 1960.
Me y e r , B. J. F. , and Fr e e dl e , R. The Effects of Different Discourse Types on Recall.
Pr i nc e t on: Educ a t i ona l Te s t i ng Se r vi c e , 1 978.
Robi ns on, F. P. Effective Study. N e w Yor k: Har pe r & Br ot her s , 1946.
Tabl e 5. Bi ographi cal Not e s Cont i nue d
R Tomas De Torquemada
Nationality: Spani s h
Occupation: Fi r s t Gr a nd I nqui s i t or of Spai n. Ca u s e d Je ws t o be e xi l e d
f rom Spai n. Aut hor i z e d t ort ure t o obt ai n conf es s i ons .
Connection: Conf e s s or t o Fe r di na nd and I s abel l a, wh o f i nanced t he
v o y a g e s of Columbus.
S Cristoforo Columbo
Nationality: I t al i an- Por t ugues e
Occupation: Ex pl o r e d area n o w k no wn as t he We s t I ndi e s .
Connection: Be l i e v e d t o ha v e i nt r oduc ed s yphi l i s i nt o Eur o pe . Henry
VIII (+1) cont r act ed s yphi l i s , c aus i ng ma ny of hi s c hi l dr e n
t o be st i l l born.
A Leonardo da Vinci
Occupation: Art i st , sci ent i st , e ng i ne e r , i nvent or . Wr ot e t reat i ses on per -
s pe c t i v e , col or, anat omy, and ma ny s c i e nc e s .
Connection: Re c e i v e d pat r onage f rom Lorenzo de' Medici.
P Lorenzo de' Medici
Occupation: L e a d e r of r e publ i c an g ov e r nme nt i n Fl o r e nc e . Ha d popu-
l ar suppor t , and r ef or med c ounc i l s and i mpr ov e d gover n-
ment .
1500-1550
M Thomas Tallis
Nationality: Eng l i s h
Occupation: On e of t he first c ompos e r s t o wr i t e c hur c h mus i c i n En-
gl i s h. Cour t c ompos e r unde r Henry VIII, wh o na me d hi m
" g e n t l e ma n " of Ch a p e l Royal .
Connections: Uns e t t l e d t i mes due t o t he Ref or mat i on c aus e d hi m t o
s wi t c h t he l a ngua ge of hi s c ompos i t i ons , d e p e nd i ng on t he
r el i gi on of t he cur r ent monar c h. Was gr ant ed a monopol y
on pr i nt i ng of mus i c and mus i c pa pe r by Elizabeth I (+1).
R Martin Luther
Occupation: Or da i ne d pri est , c ompos e r . Br oke a wa y f rom Cat hol i c
Chur c h, es t abl i s hed Pr ot est ant i sm.
Connection: Op p o s e d publ i c at i on of t he wor ks of Copernicus.
S Nicolaus Copernicus
Nationality: Pol i s h
Occupation: As t r onomer . Wr ot e On the Revolutions of the Celestial
Spheres. Wa s t he first t o st r ongl y pr opos e t hat t he eart h
r e v ol v e s ar ound t he sun.
Connection: He wa s 1 9 wh e n Columbus di s c ov e r e d Ame r i c a.
L Thoma s Mor e
Nationality: Bri t i sh
Occupation: Aut hor , l awyer . Wr ot e Utopia. He c o nde mne d t he ri ght of
man t o i nt erpret t he Scri pt ures f reel y, and t hus s i ded wi t h
t he Cat hol i c posi t i on i n t he Ref ormat i on.
Connection: Fr i e nd of Henry VIII, under wh o m he s er ved as Lor d
Chanc el l or . Ref us ed t o conf i rm t he oat h of t he " Ac t of
Suc c e s s i on" be c aus e i t cont ai ned a r epudi at i on of papal
l aw.
A Mi c he l a ng e l o
Nationality: It al i an
Occupation: Pai nt er, scul pt or. Pai nt ed Si st i ne Cha pe l cei l i ng.
Connections: Sc ul pt e d t he t omb of Lorenzo de' Medici ( 1). As a y oung
man, he c ompe t e d wi t h da Vinci ( 1) to pai nt a bat t l e
s c ene at t he Pal azzo Ve c c hi o.
P He nr y VI I I
Occupation: Ki ng of Engl and, r esponsi bl e for br i ngi ng Prot est ant i sm t o
Engl and.
Connections: De f e nde d t he papacy agai nst Luther's attacks. Pr es s ur ed
Pope Cl e me nt VI I , ne p he w of Lorenzo de' Medici (1) to
ac c ept hi s di vor ce from Cat her i ne.
1550-1600
M Pal est ri na
Nationality: Ital i an
Occupation: Compos e r , mast er of mus i c at t he Vi l l a d' Es t e.
Connection: T h e mus i c of Pal est ri na was i n t he seri ous, ant i - secul ar
spi ri t of t he Count er - Ref or mat i on. Hi s mus i c was ap-
pr oved by t he Counc i l of Tr ent , whi c h was f ormul at i ng
chur ch di s ci pl i ne for t he Count er - Ref or mat i on i n react i on
to Luther (1).
R Gi or dano Br uno
Nationality: It al i an
Occupation: Re ne g a de monk wh o at t acked vari ous chur ch doct ri nes,
i nc l udi ng prayer.
Connection: Was arrest ed by t he I nqui si t i on and bur ne d at t he st ake.
He was a phi l os opher wh o bor r owe d c os mol ogy f r om
Cope r ni c us . Ha r de ne d t he Chur c h' s at t i t ude t owar d
Copernican (-1) t heori es by c onnec t i ng i t wi t h her et i cal
doct ri nes.
S Wi l l i am Gi l ber t
Occupation: Phys i ci an and phys i ci s t wh o di s c ove r e d basi c l aws of mag-
net i sm and static el ect ri ci t y.
Connections: Per sonal phys i ci an to Elizabeth I. On e of t he first sci en-
tists openl y to support t he wor k of Copernicus (1) and
Giordano Bruno.
L Wi l l i a m Shake s pe ar e
Nationality:
Occupation:
Connections:
Br i t i sh
Fa mo us pl ay wr i ght and poe t wh o wr ot e bot h c o me dy and
t r agedy.
Pl a y wr i ght of t he Elizabethan era. Wr ot e a bi ogr aphi cal
pl ay on t he l i f e of Henry VIH (-1).
A El Gr e c o
Nationality:
Occupation:
Connection:
Gr e e k
Art i st . Be c a me a cour t pai nt er i n Spai n.
Was a Manne r i s t pai nt er , t hat i s, one wh o pai nt s i n t he
ma nne r of Michelangelo (-1).
P El i z a be t h I
Nationality:
Occupation:
Connection:
Bri t i sh
Qu e e n o f Eng l a nd.
Da ug ht e r of Henry VIII (-1), wh o , dur i ng her r ei gn,
s t r e ngt he ne d t he Bri t i sh navy, e na bl i ng Bri t i sh t o def eat
t he Spani s h Ar mada.
1600-1650
M Cl a u d i o Mo nt e v e r de
Nationality:
Occupation:
I t al i an
Co mpo s e r , mus i c di r ect or at San Ma r c o Cat he dr al , Ve ni c e .
R Re n e De s c a r t e s
Nationality:
Occupation:
Connection:
Fr e nc h
Phi l os phe r , aut hor, sci ent i st .
He had b e e n pl a nni ng t he publ i c at i on of a book support -
i ng t he v i e ws of Galileo, but wh e n he l e a r ne d of Gal i l e o' s
pe r s e c ut i on for hi s v i e ws , De s c ar t e s d e c i d e d agai nst it.
S Ga l i l e o Ga l i l e i
Nationality:
Occupation:
Connections:
It al i an
Sci ent i st . For mul a t e d l aws of f al l i ng bo di e s and di d astro-
nomi c al obs er vat i ons s uppor t i ng t he wor k of Copernicus.
Ad mi r e d t he wor k De Magnete of William Gilbert (-1).
Di s c o v e r e d a pr i nc i pl e of i nert i a, but cr edi t i s us ual l y
g i v e n t o Descartes, s i nce Ga l i l e o di d not f ul l y d e v e l o p it.
L John Mi l t on
Nationality:
Occupation:
Connections:
Br i t i sh
Aut hor . Wr ot e Paradise Lost.
Me t Galileo i n I t al y. Ther e are me nt i ons of Gal i l eo' s t el e-
s c ope i n Paradise Lost. Se r v e d as s ecr et ar y to t he Counc i l
of St at e unt i l Cromwell c a me i nt o po we r .
A Rembrandt van Rijn
Nationality: Dut c h
Occupation: Pai nt er. Ma s t e r e d t he t e c hni que s of r eal i s m whi c h had
b e e n de v e l o pi ng up t o t hat poi nt , and us e d t he m t o gi v e
expr es s i on t o pr of ound huma n e mot i on.
Connection: Hi s pai nt i ng, " T h e Ana t omy Le s s o n of Dr . T u l p , " wa s
e x hi bi t e d t he year Vermeer (+1) wa s bor n.
P Oliver Cromwell
Occupation: Se r v e d as Co mma n d e r i n C h i e f of Br i t i sh t roops and as
Lo r d Pr ot ect or t o t he Co mmo n we a l t h of Eng l a nd, Scot -
l and, and I r el and.
Connection: Hi s unc l e , Tho ma s Cr o mwe l l , wa s Ch i e f Mi ni s t er t o
Henry VIII (-1).
1650-1700
M Henry Purcell
Occupation: Cour t c ompos e r , organi st and c ompos e r for Lo ndo n
The at e r .
R Benedict de Spinoza
Nationality: Por t ug ue s e - Dut c h
Occupation: Phi l os ophe r and l ens - maker .
Connections: Wa s of f er ed a pe ns i on by Fr e nc h of f i cers o c c upy i ng Hol -
l and on t he c ondi t i on t hat he de di c at e a wor k to Louis XIV.
Re f us e d t he offer. T e r me d by Voltaire (+1) as " l e s s r ead
t han f a mous . "
S Sir Isaac Newton
Occupation: Sci ent i st . Re v ol ut i oni z e d phy s i c s and ast r onomy.
Connection: Voltaire's (+1) mi st r ess wa s a mat hemat i c i an wh o trans-
l at ed Ne wt o n' s wo r k f rom Lat i n i nt o Fr e nc h. Vol t ai r e i n-
v e nt e d t he appl e story about Ne wt o n.
L Restoration Comedy
A Jan Vermeer
Nationality: Dut c h
Occupation: Pai nt er wh o pe r c e i v e d real i t y as a " mos a i c of c ol or ed sur-
f ac e s . "
P Louis XIV
Occupation: Ki ng of Fr anc e . Re v o k e d f r e e dom of wor s hi p of t he Fr e nc h
Prot est ant s and t r i ed t o c onver t t he m by f orce.
Connection: Voltaire (+1) wr ot e a bi ogr aphy of Loui s XI V, and admi r e d
hi m gr eat l y as a yout h.
Tabl e 5. Bi ographi cal Not es Cont i nued
1700-1750
M Johann Sebas t i an Ba c h
Occupation: Co mp o s e r t o t he cour t of Pr i nc e L e o p o l d of Saxony;
organi st .
R Ge o r g e Be r k e l e y
Nationality: I ri sh
Occupation: Ang l i c a n Bi s hop. Wr ot e about t he r el i gi ous and e c onomi c
pr obl e ms of I r el and. As s e r t e d t hat t he sci ent i f i c wo r l d
v i e w e nc our a g e d at hei s m, wh i c h e nc o ur a g e d v i c e .
Connection: Wr ot e a cr i t i ci sm of Newton's (1) di f f erent i al c al c ul us .
S Be nj a mi n Fr ankl i n
Nationality: Ame r i c a n
Occupation: I nvent or , st at esman, wr i t er .
Connection: Wa s an avi d r eader of Voltaire.
L Vol t ai r e
Occupation: Aut hor of s oci ol ogi cal and pol i t i cal sat i re.
Connections: Wr ot e a bi ogr aphy of Peter the Great. Me t George
Berkeley i n Eng l a nd. Aut hor e d t he my t h of t he a ppl e f al l -
i ng on Newton's (1) he ad.
A Wi l l i a m Hogar t h
Occupation: Pai nt er of soci al sat i res.
P Pe t e r t he Gr e a t
Nationality: Rus s i an
Occupation: Cz a r of Russi a.
Connection: Op e n e d Rus s i a t o t he We s t .
1750-1800
M Wo l f g a ng Moz ar t
Occupation: Co mp o s e r of t he Cl as s i c al Er a.
Connections: /. S. Bach's (-1) y o ung e s t son b e c a me a f r i end of t he
Moz ar t f ami l y and i nf l ue nc e d t he mus i c of Mozar t . Mo -
zart ' s pat r on l at er b e c a me Beethoven's (+1) pat r on.
R I mma n u e l Ka nt
Occupation: Phi l os opher .
Connection: Cr i t i c i z e d t he e mpi r i c i s m of t he Br i t i sh phi l os opher s s uc h
as Berkeley (-1).
Learning Strategies
141
Table 5. Biographical NotesContinued
S Antoine Laurent Lavoisier
Occupation: Che mi s t . Cr e di t e d wi t h t he di s c ov e r y of oxy ge n.
Connection: Wa s gui l l ot i ned dur i ng t he French Revolution on suspi -
c i on by t he aut hor i t i es of t he r evol ut i onar y t ri bunal .
L Johann von Goethe
Occupation: Phi l os opher , ast rol oger. St udi e d anat omy and opt i cs.
Connection: Me t Napoleon (+1) i n Erf urt . Na po l e o n wa s to hi m a sym-
bol of pol i t i cal order.
A Jacques Louis David
Occupation: Pai nt er of ma ny f amous port rai t s.
Connection: Pai nt e d portrai t of Lavoisier.
P American and French Revolutions
1800-1850
M Ludwi g van Beethoven
Occupation: Compos e r . Ma r k e d t he e nd of t he Cl as s i c al Er a i n mus i c
and t he be g i nni ng of t he Romant i c Er a.
Connection: Be e t ho v e n and Goethe (-1) me t i n 1 81 2, and i mme di a t e l y
di s l i ke d e a c h ot her. Be e t h o v e n t hought Go e t h e pompous
and s nobbi s h; Go e t he t hought Be e t h o v e n wi l d and un-
rul y.
A John Stuart Mill
Occupation: Phi l os opher . On e of t he f ounder s of t he Uni o n of Wo me n' s
Suf f rage Soc i et i es .
S Michael Faraday
Occupation: I nv e nt e d t he dy na mo ; i nves t i gat ed e l e c t r omagne t i s m.
Connection: Ret i r ed to a h o me g i v e n to hi m by Queen Victoria (+1).
S Honore de Balzac
Occupation: Aut hor . Be l i e v e d t hat ext ernal c i r c ums t anc es are uni mpor -
t ant i n de t e r mi ni ng h o w a per s on' s l i f e de v e l ops .
Connection: Wr ot e about Napoleon; sai d, " Wha t Na po l e o n a c hi e v e d by
t he s wor d I shal l a c hi e v e by t he p e n . "
A Joseph Turner
Occupation: Art i st .
Connection: We n t t o t he Lo uv r e i n Pari s t o s t udy It al i an pai nt i ngs
wh i c h Napoleon c apt ur ed and br oug ht t o Pari s.
Tabl e 5. Bi ographi cal Not es Cont i nued
p Napoleon I
Occupation: Emp e r o r of Eur o pe a n e mpi r e wh i c h he c onque r e d.
Connections: David (1) pai nt e d portrai ts of hi m as a y o u ng emper or .
1850-1900
M Peter Ilich Tc ha i k ov s k y
Occupation: Co mpo s e r . Wr ot e hi ghl y emot i onal and dr amat i c mus i c .
Ha d s ever al ner vous br e a k downs .
R Karl Marx
Occupation: Aut hor and phi l os opher . Wr ot e Communist Manifesto.
Wa s t he Eur o pe a n c or r e s ponde nt t o Hor ac e Gr e e l e y ' s
New York Tribune.
Connection: Wa s a great r eader of Balzac (-1).
S Charles Darwin
Occupation: Sci ent i st , ar chaeol ogi s t , bot ani st . Wr ot e Origin of Species.
Connection: Karl Marx s ent Da r wi n an i ns c r i bed c o py of Das Kapital.
L Leo Tolstoy
Occupation: Aut hor . Wr ot e War and Peace and Anna Karenina.
Connections: Wr ot e about t he i nvas i on of Rus s i a by Napoleon (-1). Fe l t
t hat a cl as s l es s s oc i et y wo u l d c o me about t hr ough l ove and
mor al per f ect i on rat her t han t he phi l os ophy of Marx.
A Vincent van Gogh
Nationality: Du t c h
Occupation: Pos t - i mpr es s i oni s t pai nt er.
P Queen Vi c t or i a
Occupation: Qu e e n of Eng l a nd. Spe nt muc h of her r ei gn i n s ec l us i on,
l e s s e ni ng t he i nf l uenc e of t he monar c hy on Br i t i sh affairs.
Connection: Na po l e o n I I I wa s a f r equent vi si t or t o Vi ct or i a.
Learning Strategies
Tabl e 6. Musi c Matri x
143
En g l a n d Fr a nc e Ge r ma n y It al y
1 550-
1600
Wi l l i a m
By r d
1 543- 1 623
G. Pal est r i na
1 525- 1 594
1600-
1 650
John Bul l
1 585- 1 640
H. Sc hut z
1 585- 1 672
Cl a udi o
Mo nt e v e r de
1 567- 1 643
1650-
1700
He nr y
Pur c el l
1 659- 1 695
M. A.
Cha r pe nt i e r
1 634- 1 704
J-
Pa c he l be l
1 653- 1 706
A. Cor e l l i
1 653- 1 7 1 3
1700-
1 750
John Ga y
1 685- 1 732
J. P.
Ra me a u
1 683- 1 764
J. S. Ba c h
1 685- 1 750
D. Scarl at t i
1 685- 1 757
1 750-
1800
Wi l l i a m
Bo y c e
1 7 1 0- 1 7 7 9
C. W. Gl u c k
1 7 1 4- 1 7 87
W. A. Moz ar t
1 7 56- 1 7 92
L. Boc c he r i ni
1 743- 1 805
1800-
1850
H. Be r l i oz
1803- 1869
L. Be e t h o v e n
1 770- 1 827
G. Ros s i ni
1 792- 1 868
1850-
1900
Ar t hur
Sul l i v an
1842- 1900
C. Fr ank
1822- 1890
J. Br ahms
1 833- 1 897
G. Ve r di
1 81 3- 1 901
SEVEN.
GETTING THE FACTS STRAIGHT:
MAKI NG DECISIONS
IN A COMPLEX WORLD
Wha t s houl d we ha v e for br eakf ast t hi s mor ni ng ? Wha t s houl d we we a r ? Do we
have t i me for anot her c u p of c of f ee? We can' t get t hr ough t he da y wi t hout ma ki ng
ma ny smal l de c i s i ons about s uc h pract i cal ques t i ons . T h e s e de c i s i ons are mi nor
ones , but s ome d e c i s i o n s c h o o s i n g a j o b, a c ol l e g e , a bus i ne s s pa r t ne r a r e ex-
t r emel y i mpor t ant . De c i s i o n ma k i ng i s a f r equent and i mpor t ant huma n act i vi t y.
Si nc e mos t p e o p l e wo u l d agr ee t hat t hi s i s t r ue, i t i s puz z l i ng t hat f e w of us ref l ect
ver y of t en or v e r y d e e p l y about t he nat ur e of our de c i s i on- ma ki ng pr oc e s s e s , or h o w
t hey mi ght be i mpr ov e d. S o me ref l ect s o l i t t l e that t he y are s ur pr i s ed by t he i dea
that t he y us e de c i s i on- ma ki ng pr oc e s s e s at al l . I t ne v e r occur s t o t he m t hat t her e are
al t ernat i ve de c i s i on pr oc e s s e s and t hat t he y c an c hoos e a mo ng t he m.
De c i s i ons are not al l of one ki nd. Pr oc e dur e s for ma k i ng one d e c i s i o n f o r
e xampl e , b u y i n g a h o me ma y be ent i r el y i nappr opr i at e for ma k i ng anot her
d e c i s i o nf o r e x a mpl e , wha t poke r be t t o make .
I n t hi s c hapt e r and t he next one we wi l l de s c r i be f our ge ne r al t y pe s of dec i -
si ons whi c h r equi r e di f f er ent de c i s i on pr oc e dur e s :
J. De c i s i ons unde r cer t ai nt y
2. De c i s i ons unde r ri sk
3. De c i s i ons unde r unc er t ai nt y
4. De c i s i ons unde r conf l i ct
Thi s chapt er wi l l c onc ent r at e on dec i s i ons unde r cert ai nt y. I n Cha pt e r 8, we
wi l l di s cus s dec i s i ons unde r ri sk, uncer t ai nt y, and conf l i ct .
DECISIONS UNDER CERTAINTY
I magi ne t hat y o u are s ear c hi ng for an apar t ment . Yo u ha v e f ound four, al l of
whi c h have t he s ame r e n t a r ent t hat y o u can afford. Your t ask i s t o rank t he
apart ment s i n t he or der of y our pr e f e r e nc e f rom 1 for be s t t hr ough 4 for t he worst .
\
Tabl e 1. Student Apartments
T h e pr oper t i es t hat y o u s houl d c ons i de r i mpor t ant for t hi s de c i s i on are s ho wn i n
Ta bl e 1.
Do t he pr obl e m be f or e pr oc e e di ng :
Maki ng Deci si ons in a Compl ex Worl d 747
No w fil l out t hi s chart f rom t he i nf ormat i on g i v e n i n Ta b l e 2.
Ma ny pe o pl e fail t o not i c e t hat t hes e t wo pr obl e ms are r eal l y t he same. That i s,
apart ment Al has exact l y t he s ame pr oper t i es as apar t ment B4 i n Ta bl e 2; A2
mat ches B3 ; A3 mat c hes B l ; and A4 mat c he s B2. No w c he c k t o s ee i f y o u have
r anked t he ma t c hi ng apar t ment s i n t he s ame wa y . I f hal f of y our r anki ngs we r e t he
same i n t he t wo pr obl e ms , y o u di d as we l l as t he av e r age of a gr oup of 20 f acul t y
me mbe r s at Ca r ne g i e - Me l l o n Uni ver s i t y. T h e pur pos e of wo r k i ng t hr ough ex-
ampl es s uc h as t hes e i s t o i l l ust rat e t he sad fact t hat our de c i s i on- maki ng per f or m- s
anc e i s t ypi c al l y i mper f ec t , e v e n i n de c i s i on- maki ng t asks of a rat her f ami l i ar sort. \
Be l o w we wi l l di s c us s f urt her e v i de nc e of t he s hor t c omi ngs of pe opl e as de c i s i on
maker s . The r e i s a mpl e r oom for i mpr ov e me nt i n huma n de c i s i on maki ng.
I n pr e s e nt i ng pr obl e ms i n t hi s chapt er , we wi l l speci f y t he al t er nat i ves f rom
whi c h t he de c i s i on maker s c hoos e , as we l l as t he pr oper t i es of t he al t ernat i ves t hat
s houl d be c ons i de r e d i n ma k i ng t he dec i s i on, s uc h as t he s i ze of t he rooms and
c l eanl i nes s , i n t he a bov e pr obl e m. Ho we v e r , i n real l i f e, de c i s i ons us ual l y don' t
pr es ent t he ms e l v e s i n s uc h neat f orm. Mor e of t en, t he de c i s i on ma ke r mus t act i vel y
s ear ch out al t er nat i ves and eval uat e t hei r pr oper t i es t o f i nd t hos e i mpor t ant e no ug h
t o be c ons i de r e d i n ma k i ng t he dec i s i on.
We wi l l b e g i n our expl or at i on of de c i s i on pr oc es s es by e x a mi ni ng f i ve di f f erent
me t hods wh i c h are us ef ul for ma k i ng dec i s i ons unde r cer t ai nt y. T h e first f our
me t hods are optimization me t h o d s t h a t i s, t he y at t empt t o i dent i f y t he v e r y bes t
al t er nat i ve avai l abl e. T h e fifth me t hod, satisficing, s i mpl y l ooks for t he first sati s-
f actory al t er nat i ve.
OPTI MI ZI NG METHODS
\
Domi nance
Do mi n a n c e i s t he s i mpl es t of t he de c i s i on pr oc e dur e s we wi l l di s cus s . To us e
i t i n ma k i ng de c i s i ons , we mus t first f i nd t he do mi na nc e r el at i ons a mong t he
al t er nat i ves. On e al t er nat i ve domi nat es anot her i f bot h of t he f ol l owi ng condi t i ons
are sat i sf i ed:
1. It is at least as good as t he ot her on al l pr oper t i es , and
2. It is bet t er on at least one pr oper t y.
Any al t er nat i ve t hat i s domi na t e d by anot her i s dr o ppe d f rom cons i der at i on. An y
al t er nat i ve t hat domi nat e s al l t he ot hers i s c hos e n as bes t .
No w l et ' s a ppl y t he do mi na nc e pr oc e dur e t o t he apar t ment pr obl e m. Ta b l e 3
s ummar i z es t he i nf or mat i on about t he f our apar t ment s i n Ta b l e 1 . Do any of t he
al t er nat i ves domi na t e any of t he ot her s ?
On l y one al t er nat i ve domi nat es anot her i n t hi s pr obl e m: Al t er nat i ve 4 domi -
nat es Al t er nat i ve 2. Al t er nat i ve 4 i s as good as Al t er nat i ve 2 i n " k i t c he n, " " g e ne r a l
r epai r , " " no i s e l e v e l , " " br i g ht ne s s , " and " l a ndl or d, " and i t i s bet t er i n " di s t a nc e , "
" s i z e , " and " c l e a nl i ne s s . " Al t er nat i ve 1 doe s not domi nat e Al t er nat i ve 2 be c a us e ,
wh i l e i t i s bet t er i n s o me pr oper t i es , s uc h as " di s t a nc e , " i t i s wo r s e i n ot her s.
Strengths and Weaknesses of the Dominance Method
Do mi n a n c e i s not a v e r y powe r f ul de c i s i on- maki ng me t ho d be c a us e , as t he
e x a mpl e a bo v e i l l ust rat es, i t us ual l y doe s n' t e l i mi nat e v e r y ma ny of t he al ter-
nat i ves . T h e advant age of t he me t ho d i s t hat pe o pl e can agr ee about wh i c h al t erna-
t i ves are domi nant . T h e y c an do t hi s, e v e n t hough t he y ma y di f f er about wha t
pr oper t i es are mos t i mpor t ant for ma k i ng t he dec i s i on. Th u s , Jones ma y f eel that t he
ki t c hen i s t he mos t i mpor t ant pr oper t y of an apar t ment whi l e hi s wi f e be l i e v e s t hat
di s t ance f rom wo r k i s mos t i mport ant . De s pi t e t hes e di f f er enc es , t he y wi l l agr ee
t hat Al t er nat i ve 4 domi na t e s Al t er nat i ve 2. We c an r el y on r esul t s obt ai ned by t he
domi na nc e me t ho d be c a us e , e v e n i f we c ha ng e our mi nds about h o w i mport ant t he
var i ous pr oper t i es are, t he domi na nc e rel at i ons wi l l be unc ha ng e d.
T h e do mi na nc e me t ho d i s eas y t o appl y, and its resul t s are r el i abl e. The r e f or e ,
i t c an be of v a l ue wh e n us e d t o s c r een s ome al t er nat i ves f rom c ons i der at i on be f or e
ot her de c i s i on me t hods are a ppl i e d t o t he pr obl e m. An y al t er nat i ve t hat i s domi - \.
Tabl e 3. Al ternati ves
1 2 3 4
Di s t a nc e i n
Mi nut e s
1 5 Mi n 60 Mi n 20 Mi n 45 Mi n
Si z e of
Rooms
Av e r a g e Cr a mp e d Comf or t abl e Smal l
Ki t c he n N e w st ove,
et c.
St ove, et c.
i n g ood c on-
di t i on
St ove, et c.
ol d but
us e a bl e
St ove, et c. i n
g ood c ondi -
t i on
Ge ne r a l
Re pai r
Ne e d s no
Re pai r
Ne e d s no
Re pa i r
Ne e d s one
We e k wo r k
Ne e d s no
Re pai r
Cl e a nl i ne s s Ne e d s
Va c u u mi n g
Ne e d s
Va c u u mi n g
Re a dy t o
Mo v e i n
Re a dy t o
Mo v e i n
Noi s e
L e v e l
Fr e que nt l y
No i s y
Of t en Qu i e t Some t i me s
Noi s y
Of t en Qui e t
Br i ght nes s Al wa y s ne e ds
arti f i ci al
l i ght
Ve r y Br i ght Fai r l y
Br i ght
Ve r y Br i ght
La ndl or d I ndi f f er ent Cor di a l Ve r y
Fr i e ndl y
Cor di al
c ompa r e d Al t er nat i ves 1 and 3 on t he s e c ond mos t i mpor t ant p r o p e r t y r o o m
s i z e a n d c ho s e n Al t er nat i ve 3, s i nce i t has l arger r ooms t han Al t er nat i ve 1.
Not i c e wh a t wo u l d ha ppe n i f t he or der of i mpor t anc e of t he pr oper t i es we r e
r e ve r s e d, t hat i s, i f l andl or d we r e t he mos t i mpor t ant pr oper t y, br i ght nes s next , and
so on. Al t er nat i ves 2 and 4 wo u l d be t i ed for t he be s t l andl or d. T h e s e t wo al t erna-
t i ves are al so t i ed on br i ght nes s and noi s e l e v e l . T h e t i e i s f i nal l y br oke n i n f avor
of Al t er nat i ve 4 by t he di f f er ence i n c l eanl i nes s . Ch a n g i n g t he or der of i mpor t ance
of t he pr oper t i es doe s not al way s c ha ng e t he al t er nat i ve c hos e n as bes t , but i n t hi s
c as e i t c l ear l y has.
Exercises
Us e t he l exi c ogr aphi c me t ho d t o i dent i f y t he be s t s t udent i n t he pr evi ous
exer ci s e. As s u me t hat t he or der of i mpor t anc e of t he c our s es f rom mos t t o l east i s:
1. Che mi s t r y , Phy s i c s , Ca l c ul us , Art , Eng l i s h
2. Art , Eng l i s h, Ca l c ul us , Phys i c s , Che mi s t r y
Strengths and Weaknesses of the Lexicographic Method
T h e l e xi c ogr aphi c me t ho d i s mos t appr opr i at e wh e n one of t he pr oper t i es
out we i g hs al l of t he ot her s i n i mpor t anc e. Its maj or st r engt h unde r t hes e ci r cum-
st ances i s t hat i t i s qui c k and eas y t o appl y. T h e me t ho d i s l eas t appr opr i at e wh e n
t he pr oper t i es are r oughl y e qua l i n i mpor t ance. Unde r t he s e c i r c ums t anc es t he
me t hod ma y l e ad us t o c hoos e an al t er nat i ve wh i c h has a sl i ght advant age i n t he
mos t i mpor t ant pr oper t y, e v e n t houg h t hat advant age i s o u t we i g h e d by b i g di sad-
vant ages i n ot her pr oper t i es . Thi s ha ppe ns be c a us e t he l exi c ogr aphi c me t hod t ypi -
cal l y i gnor es al l b ut t he mos t i mpor t ant pr oper t y.
Addi ti ve Wei ght i ng
T h e a ddi t i v e - we i g ht i ng me t hod t akes al l of t he pr oper t i es i nt o ac c ount but
does not g i v e t he m e qua l we i g ht . T h e mor e i mpor t ant pr oper t i es r e c e i v e he a v y
we i ght s and t he l es s i mpor t ant ones l i ght er we i g ht s .
To us e t he a ddi t i v e - we i g ht i ng me t hod, one mus t have numbe r s bot h for
we i ght s of t he pr oper t i es and for t he val ue s of t he pr oper t i es . For e x a mpl e , i n
Ta bl e 4 we ha v e pr ov i de d nume r i c al we i g ht s for t he pr oper t i es i n t he r i ght - hand
c ol umn: 7 for di s t anc e, 4 for s i ze of r ooms , et c. We ha v e al so pr ov i de d numbe r s f rom
1 t o 5 for t he var i ous v a l ue s of e a c h of t he pr oper t i es . T h e s e are s ho wn i n Ta bl e 4
i n par ent hes es t o t he r i ght of e a c h pr oper t y v al ue . T h e nume r i c a l v a l ue 4 i s as-
s i gned for t he 1 5- mi nut e di s t ance i ndi cat i ng a r el at i vel y hi g h or " g o o d " val ue. T h e
numer i c al v a l ue 1 i s as s i gne d t o t he 60- mi nut e di s t anc e, i ndi c at i ng a l o w or " po o r "
val ue. T h e numbe r s for t he we i g ht s and val ue s of t he pr oper t i es are i nt e nde d t o
ref l ect t he i mpor t anc e of t he pr oper t i es and pr oper t y v a l ue s t o t he de c i s i on maker .
Typi c al l y, de c i s i on maker s wi l l di f f er s o me wha t i n t he i mpor t anc e t he y pl ac e on
t he vari ous pr oper t i es and v al ue . For e x a mpl e , a t enant wh o i s ha ndy wi t h t ool s may
put a r el at i vel y l o w v a l ue on general repair, whe r e a s one wh o i s al l t humbs may
f i nd i t mu c h mor e i mport ant . I n t he s ame wa y , a per s on ma y not car e about t he
l andl or d' s at t i t ude as l ong as he i sn' t ac t i vel y host i l e. Th u s , he mi ght wa nt t o assi gn
t he s ame numer i c al v a l ue to indifferent and cordial.
To ma ke a de c i s i on by t he a ddi t i v e - we i ght i ng me t hod, mul t i pl y numer i cal
val ues of t he pr oper t i es by t he we i g ht s of t he pr oper t i es for e a c h al t ernat i ve. T h e n
choos e t he al t er nat i ve wi t h t he l ar gest s um as " be s t . " I n Ta b l e 4, t he pr oduct s of
val ue and we i g h t are s ho wn i n t he l owe r part of e a c h c e l l . T h e pr oduc t for di st ance
for Al t er nat i ve 1 i s t he we i g h t 7 mul t i pl i e d by t he v a l ue 4, or 28. Al t er nat i ve 1 has
t he l argest s um of pr oduc t s , 75, and i s t her ef or e c hos e n as t he be s t al t er nat i ve by
t he a ddi t i v e - we i g ht i ng me t hod.
Exercises
Appl y t he a ddi t i v e - we i g ht i ng pr oc e dur e t o t he f ol l owi ng pr obl e ms :
J. Wh i c h wo u l d be t he be s t apar t ment i n Ta b l e 3 i f al l of t he we i g ht s we r e e qua l ?
2. I f t he we i g ht s for t he subj ect s i n Ex e r c i s e 1 we r e Che mi s t r y 4, Phys i c s 4, Cal -
c ul us 5, Ar t 2, and Eng l i s h 3, wh o wo u l d be t he be s t s t ude nt ?
3. I f t he we i g ht s for t he subj ect s we r e Che mi s t r y 2, Phy s i c s 2, Ca l c ul us 4, Art 5,
and Eng l i s h 4, wh o wo u l d be t he be s t s t udent ?
Strengths and Weaknesses of the Additive Weighting Method
T h e a ddi t i v e - we i g ht i ng me t ho d t akes al l of t he pr oper t i es i nt o ac c ount i n
ma ki ng t he de c i s i on, but i t does n' t t ake t he i nt eract i ons of t he pr oper t i es i nt o
account . Wh e n we say t hat t wo pr oper t i es i nt eract , we me a n t hat t he i mpor t anc e we
assi gn t o a v a l ue of one pr oper t y de pe nds on t he v a l ue wh i c h ot her pr oper t i es
ha ppe n t o ha v e . For e x a mpl e , t he i mpor t anc e we pl ac e on t he f r i endl i ness of t he
l andl or d ma y d e p e n d on t he c ondi t i on of t he apar t ment . I f t he apar t ment ne e ds a
great deal of repai r, i t ma y be v e r y i mpor t ant t hat t he l andl or d i s f ri endl y.
T h e a ddi t i v e - we i g ht i ng me t hod can l ead t o i nappr opr i at e dec i s i ons by i gnor-
i ng t hes e i nt er act i ons, j us t as t he l exi c ogr aphi c me t hod can l e a d t o i nappropri at e
dec i s i ons by i gnor i ng t he l ess i mpor t ant pr oper t i es . Ho we v e r , i gnor i ng t hes e i nter-
act i ons i s not r eal l y a v e r y ser i ous pr obl e m i n mos t cas es . Thi s f act i s i l l ust rat ed i n
t he f ol l owi ng e x a mpl e , s ug g e s t e d by Ynt e ma and Tor ge r s on' s ( 1 961 ) anal ysi s of
dec i s i ons .
Suppos e t hat y o u are a s cout mas t er and t hat y o u have t he t ask of awar di ng mer i t
ba dg e s t o y our nume r ous c har ges at t he e nd of t he year . T h e r eal i t i es of l i f e have
f or ced y o u t o c onc ent r at e on j us t t hr ee of t he 1 0 b o y s cout vi r t ues t hi s year : hel pf ul -
nes s , c l e anl i ne s s , and hones t y. Dur i ng t he year , y o u ha v e g i v e n e a c h scout a gr ade
f rom 1 ( l ow) t o 7 ( hi gh) for hi s per f or manc e on e a c h of t hes e t hr ee vi r t ues. T h e
pr obl e m, now, i s wh o get s t he ba dg e s .
Yo u and t he assi st ant scout mast er agr ee t hat t he t hr ee vi r t ues are e qua l l y
i mport ant . T h e assi st ant s ugges t s t hat i t wo u l d be e as y t o ma ke t he de c i s i on by
addi t i ve we i g ht i ng . " Af t er al l , " he poi nt s out , " i f t he we i g ht s are al l equal , we can
l et t he m al l be 1. " T h e n Mer i t , M, wi l l j us t be e qua l t o
1 he l pf ul ne s s scor e + 1 c l eanl i nes s score + 1 hones t y score
or
M = he l pf ul ne s s + c l e anl i ne s s + hones t y,
or
M = he + cl + ho
He i s de l i g ht e d, but y o u are wor r i ed. Yo u k no w y our t r oop, and y o u k no w t hat
t he vi r t ues i nt er act wi t h e a c h ot her. For e x a mpl e , t her e wa s t hat di rt y l i ttl e ki d,
Snyder , wh o wa s r eal l y hel pf ul i n t he l i brary, but he got t he books s o di rt y that t he y
had t o be bur ne d. He l pf ul ne s s and hones t y i nt eract t oo. Re me mb e r Gi one l l i , wh o
he l pe d l ots of ol d me n across t he st reet and t he n pi c k e d t hei r poc ke t s ? I n y our
wi s d o m y o u k no w t hat t he mer i t c ont r i but ed by e a c h vi r t ue d e p e nd s on t he val ue s
of t he ot her vi r t ues . Yo u k no w t hat t rue mer i t i s me a s ur e d by t hi s f ormul a:
Tr ue Me r i t = ( He Cl ) + ( Cl Ho) + ( Ho He )
Maki ng Deci si ons in a Compl ex Worl d
155
No w t hat ' s a l ot di f f er ent f rom
M = He + C l + Ho !
Ne v e r t he l e s s , y our assi st ant s e e ms qui t e unt r oubl e d wh e n y o u t el l hi m t hes e
hard facts of l i f e. " I t ' s t r ue, " he says, " t hos e vi r t ues r eal l y i nt eract ve r y st rongl y, but
t hat doe s n' t me a n t hat t he a ddi t i v e - we i ght i ng s c he me i s goi ng t o c aus e us t o make
l ots of mi s t akes . Wha t we are t r yi ng t o do i s t o or der t he scout s ac c or di ng t o t hei r
t rue mer i t . We ma ke a mi s t ake onl y wh e n a hi ghe r mer i t scout get s a l owe r addi t i ve-
we i g ht i ng scor e t han a l o we r mer i t s c out . " Tha t i s,
i f Mx > M 2 (the a ddi t i v e - we i ght i ng scores)
but ( Tr ue Me r i t ) 2 > ( Tr ue Me r i t ^
Tor ge r s on and Ynt e ma ar gue t hat i n or di nar y c i r c ums t anc es t hi s doe s n' t hap-
pe n ve r y muc h. Suppo s e we we r e t o s e l e c t t wo scout s at r andom and s uppos e
f urther that t he scout s s pr ead t he ms e l v e s out e v e nl y on t he vi r t ue scal e. Tha t i s, a
scout i s j us t as l i ke l y to s cor e a 1 on c l eanl i nes s or hone s t y as 2 or 4 or 7. If t he t rue
mer i t of one s c out i s 6 uni t s gr eat er t han t he ot her ( whi c h ha ppe ns 86 pe r c e nt of t he
t i me) , Tor g e r s on and Ynt e ma c al c ul at e t hat t he addi t i ve we i g ht i ng scor e, M, wi l l
al so be gr eat er for t he mor e vi r t uous scout i n 99. 5 pe r c e nt of cas es .
Wha t about t he r e ma i ni ng 1 4 pe r c e nt of cas es i n wh i c h t he di f f er ence i n t rue
mer i t i s l ess t han 6? T h e a ddi t i v e - we i g ht i ng pr oc e dur e can' t do wor s e t han c hanc e ,
so i t s houl d ge t as a mi n i mu m an addi t i onal s e v e n pe r c e nt of t he dec i s i ons ri ght.
Thus , e v e n t ho ug h i t i gnor es i nt er act i ons, t he a ddi t i v e - we i ght i ng pr oc e dur e ma ke s
t he ri ght c hoi c e i n at l east 93 pe r c e nt ( 86% + 7%) of cas es i n a pr obl e m wi t h st rong
i nt eract i on. Fur t her , i t t e nds not t o ma k e ba d errors. Tha t i s, i n cas es wh e r e t her e
i s a bi g di f f er enc e i n t r ue v a l ue b e t we e n t he al t er nat i ves, t he a ddi t i v e - we i ght i ng
met hod al mos t a l wa y s ma ke s t he r i ght dec i s i on. We can c o nc l ude t hat t he addi t i ve-
we i g ht i ng me t hod, e v e n t houg h i t i gnor es i nt er act i ons, i s a r eas onabl y good dec i -
si on me t hod i n gener al . In part i cul ar, i t s houl d do a good j ob for us i n as s i gni ng
meri t ba dg e s .
T h e maj or dr a wba c k of t he a ddi t i v e - we i ght i ng me t hod i s t hat i t i s t i me c ons um-
i ng. Obt a i ni ng t he numbe r s for t he we i g ht s and val ue s of t he pr oper t i es i s pr obabl y
t he most di f f i cul t part of t he me t hod. I n s ome cas es , t hes e numbe r s can be de r i v e d
from obj ect i ve c ons i der at i ons , s uc h as t he pos t ed pr i ces of cars or t he cal ori c con-
t ent of var i ous f oods. I n ot her c as es , t he y mus t be obt ai ne d t hr ough s ubj ec t i ve
est i mat i on. In us i ng t he a ddi t i v e - we i ght i ng me t ho d for Apar t me nt s 1, 2, 3, and 4
( Tabl e 4), we had t o ma k e e i ght es t i mat es of pr oper t y we i g ht s and 40 est i mat es of
pr oper t y val ue s .
On c e t he ne c e s s ar y numbe r s have b e e n obt ai ned, a f e w mi nut e s wor t h of
mul t i pl yi ng and a ddi ng sti l l mus t be done t o f i nd t he be s t c hoi c e . Al l t hi ngs c on-
si der ed, t he a ddi t i v e - we i g ht i ng me t hod ma y r equi r e b e t we e n hal f an hour and an
hour t o c ompl e t e . Thi s i s l i kel y mor e t i me t han y o u wo u l d wa nt t o s pe nd c hoos i ng
your des s er t i n t he l unc h l i ne. Ho we v e r , i t ma y we l l be wor t h s pe ndi ng t hat amount
of t i me i f t he de c i s i on i s an i mpor t ant or e x pe ns i v e one, s uc h as t he c hoi c e of a
graduat e school or a n e w car.
Ef f ec t i venes s I ndi c e s
I n s ome c as es , i t i s i mpor t ant t o t ake i nt o ac c ount t he i nt er act i ons whi c h t he
addi t i ve - we i ght i ng mo de l i gnor es . Thi s ma y ha ppe n ei t her be c a us e t he i nterac-
ti ons are e s pe c i a l l y st rong or be c a us e errors i n dec i s i ons are v e r y cost l y, or bot h.
Bot h are t rue i n cer t ai n me di c a l si t uat i ons i n whi c h t he pat i ent mus t r e c e i v e t wo
ki nds of me di c at i on s i mul t aneous l y. Some pai rs of dr ugs ha v e ef f ect s i n combi na-
t i on wh i c h ne i t he r of t he m has al one. Tha t i s, t he dr ugs i nt eract wi t h e a c h ot her. I n
s ome cas es , t he s e i nt er act i ons are l i f e- t hr eat eni ng and mus t be t aken i nt o ac c ount
i n c hoos i ng appr opr i at e dos a ge l e v e l s . For c as es of t hi s sort, we ne e d a de c i s i on
me t hod mor e c o mp l e x t han addi t i ve we i g ht i ng , wh i c h wi l l t ake t he i nt eract i ons
i nt o ac c ount . We wi l l us e t he t er m effectiveness index t o de s i gnat e al l s uch " mor e
c o mp l e x " me t hods . Of t en s uc h me t hods wi l l i nv ol v e a phys i c al , c he mi c al , or engi -
ne e r i ng mo de l ba s e d on e xt e ns i v e anal ysi s of t he si t uat i on about whi c h we are
ma k i ng de c i s i ons . De s i g n i n g and i mpl e me nt i ng s uc h a me t ho d ma y be ver y e xpe n-
s i ve i nde e d.
We wi l l not ask t he r eader t o cons t r uct any ef f ec t i venes s i ndi c e s . Ou r pur pos e
i n di s c us s i ng ef f ec t i venes s i ndi c es i s s i mpl y t o poi nt out t hat wh e n i t i s ver y
i mpor t ant t o get t he be s t dec i s i ons , i t i s pos s i bl e, t hough of t en e x pe ns i v e , t o do
bet t er t han t he mo de l s we di s c us s e d abov e .
SATI SFYI NG: A NON- OPTI MI ZI NG APPROACH
De c i s i o n- ma k i ng si t uat i ons t hat we me e t i n dai l y e x pe r i e nc e are of t en a good
deal me s s i e r t han t he i de a l i z e d si t uat i ons we have de s c r i be d abov e . Per haps t he
mos t i mpor t ant c ompl i c at i on we e nc ount e r i s that, rat her t han b e i ng pr e s e nt e d wi t h
a pr e de f i ne d l i st t o c hoos e f rom, we ma y be f or ced t o s ear c h for al t er nat i ves. For
e x a mpl e , wh e n a t e ac he r assi gns a " f r e e " t he me , t he s t udent ' s task of de c i di ng wha t
t o wr i t e about wi l l r e qui r e t hat he gener at e a l i st of pos s i bl e t opi cs. Si mi l ar l y, wh e n
a c ol l e g e wa nt s to f i nd a n e w de an, a sear ch c ommi t t e e i s a ppoi nt e d to i dent i f y a
l i st of c andi dat es t o be c ons i de r e d.
Ge ne r a t i ng al t er nat i ves , e x a mi ni ng t hei r pr oper t i es , and c hoos i ng a mong t he
al t er nat i ves are al l act i vi t i es t hat ma y add c ons i de r abl e cos t t o t he de c i s i on- maki ng
pr oc es s . I n t he pr o bl e m of s ear c hi ng for a de an, t he s e cost s i nc l ude t he sal ari es of
t he s ear c h- c ommi t t ee me mb e r s and t he t ravel cost s of c andi dat es i nvi t ed from ot her
ci t i es. I f t he l i st of c andi dat es t hat t he s ear ch c ommi t t e e gener at es i s ve r y l ar ge, t he
cost s ma y al so be l ar ge. I f t he s ear ch c ommi t t e e t akes f i ve year s and gener at es
100, 000 na me s , c l ear l y de c i s i on ma ki ng i s goi ng t o be v e r y e x pe ns i v e . T h e
de c i s i on- ma ki ng t e c hni que de s c r i be d b e l o w can be hel pf ul i n pract i cal si t uat i ons
wh e r e s uc h cost s mus t be c ons i de r e d.
T h e de c i s i on me t hods we have di s c us s e d s o far are al l opt i mi z i ng me t hods , t hat
i s, me t hods d e s i g ne d t o f i nd t he be s t avai l abl e al t er nat i ve. I n thi s sect i on, we wi l l
di s c us s qui t e a di f f er ent appr oac h t o de c i s i on ma k i ng c al l e d satisficing, first de -
s c r i bed by Si mon ( 1955) . Thi s me t ho d i s not de s i g ne d t o i dent i f y t he be s t al t erna-
t i ve. Rat her i t i s d e s i g ne d to f i nd t he first satisfactory al t er nat i ve.
T h e sat i sf i ci ng me t ho d r equi r es t he de c i s i on ma ke r t o i dent i f y t he wor s t v a l ue
he i s wi l l i ng t o a c c e pt for e a c h of t he at t ri but es. He t hen c ons i der s al l of t he
al t er nat i ves i n or der , r ej ect i ng any al t er nat i ves wh i c h fal l b e l o w t he mi ni ma l v a l ue s
of t he at t r i but es, and a c c e pt i ng t he first al t er nat i ve wh i c h me e t s al l of t he mi ni mal
val ues .
Co ns i de r i ng Ta b l e 3, s uppos e t hat t he de c i s i on maker ' s mi ni ma l val ue s are:
di s t anc e: 45 mi nut e s
r oom si ze: smal l
ki t c hen: us e a bl e
repai r: t wo we e k s ' r epai r
c l e anl i ne s s : ne e ds s ome c l e a ni ng
noi s e: s ome t i me s noi s y
br i ght nes s : f ai rl y br i ght
l andl or d: i ndi f f er ent
Al t er nat i ve 1 fai l s t o me e t t he mi ni mum val ue s for noi s e l e v e l and br i ght nes s ,
and Al t er nat i ve 2 fai l s t o me e t t he mi ni mum val ue for di s t anc e and r oom si ze.
Al t er nat i ve 3, h o we v e r , me e t s al l of t he mi ni mal r e qui r e me nt s and i s t her ef or e
c hos en. Not i c e t hat Al t er nat i ve 4 al so me e t s t he mi ni mal r e qui r e me nt s but was not
c hos e n or e v e n c ons i de r e d be c a us e s ear ch wa s t er mi nat ed wh e n t he first sati sfac-
tory al t er nat i ve wa s f ound.
Exercises
1 . I n t he e x a mpl e a bov e , wha t wo u l d be t he r esul t i f t he de c i s i on ma ke r i nsi st ed
i n addi t i on t o t he ot her mi ni mum r e qui r e me nt s t hat t he apar t ment ne e d no
r epai r ? Tha t t he st ove be n e w?
2. Us e t he sat i sf i ci ng me t hod wi t h t he dat a on pa g e 1 50 t o
a. Fi nd a good al l - ar ound s t u d e n t o n e wh o can score 85 i n al l subj ect s.
b. Fi nd a good s c i e nc e s t u d e n t o n e wh o can scor e 90 or bet t er i n mat h and
s c i enc e.
Strengths and Weaknesses of the Satisficing Method
T h e sat i sf i ci ng me t ho d i s par t i cul ar l y us ef ul wh e n we have t o c hoos e a mong a
ver y l arge numb e r of al t er nat i ves and i t i s not es s ent i al t o f i nd t he bes t . For exam-
pl e, wh e n we are c hoos i ng a d o z e n appl es f rom a s uper mar ket bi n, we don' t try t o
f i nd t he 1 2 be s t appl e s . We can' t be bot he r e d wi t h e x a mi ni ng and c ompar i ng al l of
Tabl e 5. Deci si on Maki ng Met hods
Me t hod T y p e Us e t hi s
me t hod:
Cos t of c om-
put at i on re-
qui r e d
Nu mb e r of
al t er nat i ves
e x a mi ne d
Domi -
nanc e
opt i mi z i ng for pr el i mi -
nary s c r een-
i ng of al ter-
nat i ves
l o w al l
Le xi c og-
r aphy
opt i mi z i ng wh e n attri-
but e s are ve r y
di f f erent i n
we i g h t
v e r y l o w al l
Addi t i ve
We i g ht i ng
opt i mi z i ng wh e n i t i s i m-
port ant t o f i nd
t he be s t al ter-
nat i ve
hi gh al l
Ef f ect i ve-
ness I ndex
opt i mi z i ng wh e n i t i s
very i mpor -
t ant t o get
be s t al t erna-
t i ve
v e r y hi gh al l
Sat i sf i ci ng non- opt i mi z i ng wh e n t he cost
of e x a mi ni ng
t he wh o l e set
of al t er nat i ves
i s ve r y hi g h
v e r y l o w s ome
t he appl e s i n t he bi n. We s i mpl y pi ck t he first 1 2 ac c e pt abl e a ppl e s and go on t o us e
t he sat i sf i ci ng me t ho d for s el ec t i ng pe ppe r oni , k i wi frui t, or wha t e v e r el s e we ma y
ne e d. Si mi l ar l y, i n t he dean- s ear c h task, i t i s e c onomi c a l t o st op t he sear ch as soon
as a sat i sf act ory c andi dat e i s f ound.
T h e pr i mar y advant age of t he sat i sf i ci ng me t hod i s t hat i t c an yi e l d a sati sfac-
t ory de c i s i on wi t hout r equi r i ng us t o e xami ne al l of t he al t er nat i ves. Thus , c om-
par e d t o opt i mi z at i on me t hods , i t can gr eat l y r e duc e t he cos t of sear ch i n dec i s i on
maki ng.
T h e sat i sf i ci ng me t ho d ma y not y i e l d a de c i s i on at al l i f we set our st andards
t oo hi gh. For e x a mpl e , i n wr i t i ng we ma y f i nd our s el ves b l o c k e d be c a us e we are
s ear c hi ng for t he per f ec t wo r d t o expr es s our me a ni ng wh e n none ma y exi st . Di o-
g e ne s s e e ms t o ha v e e nc ount e r e d t hi s sort of di f f i cul t y i n hi s s ear c h for an hones t
man. As a pract i cal mat t er wha t us ual l y happe ns wh e n we run i nt o di f f i cul t y i n
f i ndi ng a sat i sf act ory apar t ment or car or e mp l o y e e i s t hat we c ha ng e our mi nds
about wha t i s mi ni ma l l y ac c e pt abl e and set a n e w but , al as, l o we r st andard.
Ta b l e 5 s umma r i z e s t he pr oper t i es of t he de c i s i on- maki ng pr oc e dur e s de-
s c r i bed abov e .
EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES OF DECISION MAKI NG UNDER CERTAINTY
Do f ormal de c i s i on me t hods he l p? T h e cor r ect c hoi c e i n any dec i s i on si t uat i on
de pe nds on t he de c i s i on make r s ' i ndi vi dual val ue s . I f t wo pe o pl e ma ke di f f erent
c hoi c e s i n t he s ame si t uat i on, i t does n' t me a n t hat one of t he m i s wr ong ; i t may j us t
be t hat t he y ha v e di f f er ent val ue s . Thi s me ans t hat we can' t t el l ho w good pe opl e ' s
de c i s i on- ma ki ng pr oc e s s e s are by t he c hoi c e t he y make . Ho w t he n can we meas ur e
i mpr o v e me nt i n de c i s i on- ma ki ng ski l l s?
No mat t er wha t pe opl e ' s v a l ue s are, i f t he y us e good de c i s i on me t hods , t hey
s houl d t e nd t o agr ee wi t h t he ms e l v e s wh e n t he y ma k e t he s ame deci s i on t wi c e . To
t est for i mpr o v e me nt i n de c i s i on maki ng, t hen, we me a s ur e d s el f - agr eement of
s t udent s ma k i ng apar t ment dec i s i ons ( see Ta bl e s 1 and 2) bot h bef or e and after t hey
had s t udi e d t he me t hods de s c r i be d i n t hi s chapt er . Of t he 71 st udent s t est ed, 49
we r e mor e c ons i s t ent on post t est t han pr et est , 1 4 we r e l ess consi st ent , and ei ght
we r e unc ha ng e d. T h e s e resul t s i ndi cat e a v e r y r el i abl e i mpr o v e me nt i n c ons i s t enc y
for t he gr oup as a r es ul t of t r ai ni ng i n f ormal de c i s i on me t hods .
I NFORMATI ON- PROCESSI NG LIMITS IN DECISION MAKI NG
Of t en wh e n we are ma k i ng an i mpor t ant de c i s i on, s uc h as wha t c ol l e ge t o
at t end or wh e r e t o s pe nd our vacat i on, we ma ke an effort t o get as mu c h i nf ormat i on
as pos s i bl e a bout e a c h of t he al t er nat i ves. I mpl i c i t i n t hi s effort i s our as s umpt i on
t hat mor e r e l e v a nt i nf or mat i on about t he al t er nat i ves wi l l e na bl e us t o ma ke bet t er
de c i s i ons . A s t udy by Ha y e s (1962) i ndi cat es t hat t hi s as s umpt i on i sn' t neces s ar i l y
t rue i f t he de c i s i on ma ke r i s not us i ng a f ormal de c i s i on pr oc e dur e .
Ha y e s s t udi e d mi l i t ar y pe r s onne l ma k i ng dec i s i ons about a s i mul at ed air-
de f e ns e si t uat i on. T h e al t er nat i ves we r e c har ac t er i z ed by e i ght e qua l l y i mport ant
r el evant pr oper t i es . For s ome dec i s i ons , i nf or mat i on wa s avai l abl e about onl y t wo
of t he pr oper t i es . For ot her dec i s i ons , i t wa s avai l abl e for f our, si x, or al l ei ght of t he
pr oper t i es . I n al l c as es , t he cor r ect nes s of a de c i s i on wa s s c or ed on t he basi s of t he
" r eal - wor l d s i t uat i on" me a s ur e d by al l e i ght pr oper t i es , whe t he r t he dec i s i on
make r had s e e n al l of t he m or not.
T h e s ur pr i s i ng r es ul t wa s t hat t he de c i s i on maker s ma de j us t as good dec i s i ons
wh e n t he y we r e g i v e n t wo r e l e vant facts as wh e n t he y we r e g i v e n f our, si x, or ei ght .
T h e subj ect s mus t ha v e b e e n de r i v i ng us ef ul i nf ormat i on f rom t he ext ra facts,
t hough, b e c a us e wh e n i r r el evant facts rat her t han r el evant ones we r e adde d, t he
dec i s i ons b e c a me di s t i nct l y wor s e . Th e s e resul t s s ugges t t hat ext ra r el evant facts
bot h he l p and hurt . T h e y add ext ra i nf ormat i on, but t he y al so conf us e t he dec i s i on
maker . Co mp a r i n g s ever al al t er nat i ves s i mul t aneous l y on f our or mor e pr oper t i es
appear s t o be a v e r y di f f i cul t task for mos t pe o pl e t o do i n t hei r heads . De c i s i on
me t hods s uc h as l e xi c ogr aphy and addi t i ve we i g ht i ng are us ef ul be c a us e t hey al l ow
pe o pl e t o s ubs t i t ut e r el i abl e obj ec t i ve pr oc e dur e s for unr e l i abl e s ubj ect i ve ones .
REFERENCES
Ha y e s , J. R. Human Data Processing Limits in Decision Making. Te c hni c a l Doc u-
ment ar y Repor t No . ES D- TDR- 6 2 - 4 8. Bedf or d, MA: Oper at i onal Appl i cat i ons
Labor at or y, Jul y, 1962.
Si mon, H. A. "A Be havi or al Mo d e l of Rat i onal Ch o i c e . " Quarterly Journal of Eco-
nomics, 69, 99- 1 1 8, 1 955.
Ynt e ma, D. B. , and Tor g e r s on, W. S. Man-Computer Cooperation in Decisions
Requiring Common Sense. I RE Tr ans ac t i ons , T G H F E , HF E - 2 , 20-26, 1 961 .
E I G H T .
THE LUCK OF THE DRAW:
DEALING WITH CHANCE
IN DECISION MAKI NG
I n ma ki ng dec i s i ons unde r cert ai nt y, our task i s t o f i gur e out whi c h of t he
al t er nat i ves we l i ke best . Wh e n we ma ke a c hoi c e , we a s s ume t hat we wi l l get t he
al t er nat i ve we want . I f we t el l t he car sal es deal er , " I ' l l t ake t he y e l l o w Ma z da , " we
e xpe c t t o ge t it. I f t hey de l i v e r a bl ue pai s l ey Fi at i nst ead, we wo u l d l i kel y be ver y
upset .
T^UT, I O R D E R E D A YELLOUJ A \ A Z P / * ' .
I n t hi s chapt er , we wi l l di s cus s dec i s i ons of qui t e a di f f erent sort: Wha t y o u
wa nt may be wha t y o u get , but t hen agai n i t ma y not. Tha t i s, we wi l l s t udy
dec i s i ons i n wh i c h s ome e v e nt not unde r your cont rol i nt e r ve ne s b e t we e n y our
c hoi c e and its out c ome .
Co ns i de r my de c i s i on t o run for Pr es i dent , for e x a mpl e . I t i s t rue that t he
c ampai gn wo u l d cos t ma ny mi l l i ons of dol l ars, but t he j ob i s r eal l y a ni c e one. I t
pr ovi des f ree hous i ng and, unl i ke ma ny ot her j obs , al l ows one t o ma ke State of t he
Uni on addr es s es and be Co mma nde r - i n- Chi e f of t he a r me d f or ces.
No w, e v e n t hough I' d l i ke t he j ob, I ' ve de c i de d not t o i nve s t my mi l l i ons
be c a us e I k no w t hat t hi s i s not a de c i s i on unde r cert ai nt y. E v e n i f I we r e t o i nves t
my mi l l i ons , I wo u l d not be certain of get t i ng t he j ob. Be t we e n my i nv e s t me nt and
t he j ob l i es an e l e c t i on wh i c h mi ght not nec es s ar i l y go my wa y . I n fact, s ome f ormer
f ri ends s ug g e s t e d t hat my c ha nc e s are so poor t hat I wo u l d i n ef f ect be g i v i ng my
mo n e y away .
My de c i s i on t he n de pe nds not j us t on f i ndi ng t he al t er nat i ve I wa nt most , but
al so on t he e v e nt s i nt e r v e ni ng b e t we e n c hoi c e and out c ome .
I nt e r v e ni ng e v e nt s ma y be of t hr ee di f f erent sorts: c ha nc e event s t o whi c h we
can as s i gn a pr obabi l i t y, s uc h as t he f l i ppi ng of a c oi n; c ha nc e event s t o whi c h
we can' t as s i gn a pr obabi l i t y, s uc h as t he er upt i on of Mt . St. He l e n; and event s
unde r t he cont rol of an oppone nt wh o i s t r yi ng t o be a t us , s uc h as t he mov e s of our
oppone nt i n a c he s s g a me . T h e s e t hr ee sorts of i nt e r ve ni ng e v e nt s c or r es pond t o t he
t hr ee t y pe s of de c i s i ons we wi l l di s cus s i n thi s chapt er : dec i s i ons unde r ri sk,
dec i s i ons unde r uncer t ai nt y, and dec i s i ons unde r conf l i ct . He r e are e xampl e s of
e a c h of t hes e t hr ee t y pe s of dec i s i ons :
Risk
Ga mb l i n g de c i s i ons are t ypi cal of dec i s i ons unde r ri sk. I n r oul et t e, for exam-
pl e , t he g a mbl e r c hoos es a numbe r on whi c h t o bet , say, 17. T h e n a c ha nc e event ,
t he pos i t i on at whi c h a met al bal l c o me s t o rest on t he r oul et t e wh e e l , de t e r mi ne s
t he out c ome of t he gambl er ' s c hoi c e. I f t he bal l stops on 1 7, he wi ns ; ot he r wi s e , he
l oses.
An es s ent i al f eat ur e of dec i s i ons unde r ri sk i s t hat we can cal cul at e a pr obabi l -
i ty for t he ef f ect of t he c ha nc e event . I n r oul et t e, for e x a mpl e , we k no w t hat t her e
are 38 pl ac e s at wh i c h t he bal l i s e qua l l y l i kel y t o st op. T h e pr obabi l i t y of get t i ng
1 7, t hen, i s j us t '/ss-
Uncertai nty
Li k e de c i s i ons unde r ri sk, dec i s i ons unde r uncer t ai nt y i nv ol v e a c ha nc e factor.
T h e uni que f eat ur e of dec i s i ons unde r uncer t ai nt y i s t hat we can' t cal cul at e a
pr obabi l i t y for t he ef f ect of t he c ha nc e event . Buy i ng a Chr i s t mas pr es ent for Aunt
Emma , for e x a mpl e , i s a de c i s i on unde r uncer t ai nt y, i f her t ast es (t he c ha nc e factor)
are u nk no wn t o us.
For mos t of us , de c i di ng whe t he r t o go on a pi c ni c wh e n t he we a t he r l ooks
t hr eat eni ng i s ma k i ng a de c i s i on unde r uncer t ai nt y. We k no w t hat i t may rai n, but
we don' t k no w e n o u g h about we a t he r f or ecast i ng t o c al c ul at e t he pr obabi l i t y t hat
i t wi l l rai n. We can c ha ng e t he de c i s i on f rom one unde r unc er t ai nt y t o one unde r
ri sk i f we ask t he we a t he r bur e a u t o t el l us t he pr obabi l i t y of rai n.
Confl i ct
De c i s i ons unde r conf l i ct are c o mmo n i n c ompe t i t i v e game s , l i ke c hes s and
t enni s , and i n bus i ne s s and war . Wh e n y o u c hoos e a mo v e i n c hes s , or a st rat egy
Deal i ng Wi th Chanc e in Deci si on Maki ng 763
i n t enni s , y o u k n o w t hat y our oppone nt wi l l do hi s be s t t o c ount er your mo v e or foil
your st rat egy.
Ea c h de c i s i on t y pe r equi r es a di f f erent appr oach. I n dec i s i ons unde r cert ai nt y,
t he mai n di f f i cul t y i s de c i di ng whi c h al t er nat i ve i s best . I n dec i s i ons unde r ri sk and
uncer t ai nt y, t he b i g pr obl e m i s de a l i ng wi t h t he ef f ect s of c ha nc e ; and i n dec i s i ons
unde r conf l i ct , i t i s t aki ng ac c ount of t he host i l e act i on of our opponent . T h e
r el at i ons b e t we e n c hoi c e and out c ome for al l f our de c i s i on t y pe s are di a g r a mme d
i n Fi g ur e 1.
DECISIONS UNDER RISK*
Suppos e t hat y o u have s ever al hundr e d spare dol l ars i n y our poc ke t and t hat
y o u are gi ve n t he c hoi c e of pl a y i ng t he f ol l owi ng t wo g a me s as ma ny t i mes as y ou
l i ke. Bot h g a me s i nv ol v e t os s i ng a fair coi n.
Game 1: Yo u wi n $2. 00 whe t he r t he c oi n c ome s up he ads or t ai l s.
Game 2: Yo u wi n $10. 00 i f t he c oi n c ome s up he ads and l os e $5. 00 i f i t c ome s
up t ai l s.
Wh i c h g a me s houl d y o u pr ef er t o pl ay ?
On e wi d e l y r e c o mme n d e d t e c hni que for ma ki ng ri sky de c i s i ons l i ke thi s one
i s t o c hoos e t he act i on wh i c h has t he gr eat est expected value. T h e e x pe c t e d val ue
of an act i on i s t he av e r age payof f v a l ue we can e x pe c t i f we r e pe a t t he act i on ma ny
t i mes.
T h e aver age payof f i n Ga me 1 i s eas y t o c omput e . Si nc e y o u wi n $2. 00 whe t he r
t he c oi n c ome s up he ads or t ai l s, t he av e r age payof f has t o be $2. 00. I n Ga me 2,
wh e r e t he payof f s ar en' t e qual , we can c omput e t he av e r age payof f , or e x pe c t e d
val ue, us i ng t he f ol l owi ng f ormul a:
1. Ex p e c t e d Va l ue = av e r age payof f = pr obabi l i t y of a he a d X
payof f for heads +
pr obabi l i t y of a tai l X
payof f for tai l s
or s ymbol i c al l y
Si nce t he e x pe c t e d v a l ue of Ga me 2 i s gr eat er t han t he e x pe c t e d val ue of Ga me 1,
we s houl d c hoos e Ga me 2 i n or der t o ma x i mi z e our e x pe c t e d val ue.
* Appendix II provides an elementary introduction to probability. If you are not familiar
with the concept of probability, read Appendix II before proceeding.
764
Deal i ng Wi th Chance in Deci si on Maki ng 765
Anot her Exampl e
Suppo s e t hat y o u are t he pr oduc e r for t he l ocal t heat er c ompany . Lo n g exper i -
e nc e has t aught y o u t hat mus i c al s br i ng i n a l ot of mo ne y , $10, 000, i f t he y s uc c e e d,
but 8 0 % of t he t i me t he y fail and, due t o hi gh pr oduc t i on cost s, l os e an aver age of
$2, 000. Co me d i e s , on t he ot her hand, br i ng i n muc h l ess wh e n t hey s uc c e e d,
$3, 000, but t he y s uc c e e d mor e f r equent l y, 5 0 % of t he t i me , and l ose l e s s
$ 1 , 0 0 0 wh e n t he y f l op. You are pl a nni ng a de v e l o pme nt a l pr ogr am for your
t heat er , and mus t de c i de ei t her on a ser i es of mus i c al s or a ser i es of c ome di e s .
Wh i c h c hoi c e wi l l ma x i mi z e e x pe c t e d v a l ue for y our t heat er ?
EV ( musi cal ) = 0.2 x $10, 000 + 0.8 x - $2, 000
= $2, 000 - $1, 600
= + $400
EV ( c ome dy) = 0.5 x $3,000 + 0.5 x - $1 , 000
= $1, 500 - $500
= + $1, 000
To ma x i mi z e e x pe c t e d v al ue , y o u s houl d c hoos e t he ser i es of c o me di e s .
I n ma ny si t uat i ons, we have t o deal wi t h mor e t han t wo pos s i bl e out c ome s . For
e x a mpl e , wi t h a s i ngl e di e , we can rol l any numb e r f rom one t hr ough si x, and wi t h
t wo di c e , any n u mb e r f rom t wo t hr ough t we l v e . To c omput e e x pe c t e d val ues i n
s uc h c as es , we ha v e t o e x pa nd Equa t i on 1 as f ol l ows :
2. EV = P( l ) - V( l ) +P( 2) - V( 2) +P( 3) - V( 3) + . . . . +P( N) - V( N)
Tha t i s, i n a si t uat i on wi t h N pos s i bl e out c ome s , t he e x pe c t e d v a l ue ( EV) i s s i mpl y
t he pr obabi l i t y of e a c h out c ome t i mes t he val ue of t hat out c ome a dde d up over al l
of t he pos s i bl e out c ome s .
We c an us e Equa t i on 2 t o c omput e t he e x pe c t e d v a l ue for Ga me 3.
Game 3. Rol l i ng a s i ngl e di e, y o u wi n $6.00 i f y o u ge t a one , $5. 00 i f y ou get
a t wo, et c.
For t hi s g a me , t he pr obabi l i t y of e a c h out c ome i s one- si xt h, s i nce e a c h of t he
six numbe r s has e qua l pr obabi l i t y and t he e x pe c t e d v a l ue i s
EV ( Ga me 3) = V6 ($6. 00)+V6 ($5. 00)+V6 ($4. 00)+V6 ($3. 00)+V6 ($2. 00)+V6 ($1. 00)
_ ($6.00 + $5. 00 + $4. 00 + $3. 00 + $2. 00 + $1. 00)
= $21. 00
6
= $3. 50
Si nc e t he e x pe c t e d v a l ue of Ga me 3 i s gr eat er t han t he e x pe c t e d val ues of ei t her
Ga me 1 or Ga me 2, y o u s houl d pr ef er t o pl ay Ga me 3 t o t he ot her g a me s i n order
t o ma x i mi z e e x pe c t e d v al ue .
Exercises
Fi nd t he e x pe c t e d v a l ue for t he f ol l owi ng g a me s :
1. I f a fai r c oi n c o me s up he a ds , y o u wi n $1. 00; ot he r wi s e y o u l os e $1. 00.
2. I f y o u rol l one di e and ge t a si x y o u wi n $5. 00; ot he r wi s e y o u l os e $1. 00.
3. On a r oul et t e wh e e l t her e are 36 nu mb e r e d posi t i ons and t wo hous e posi t i ons.
I f t he bal l st ops on y our numbe r , y o u get y our dol l ar bac k pl us $35. 00. Ot he r wi s e
y o u l ose y our dol l ar.
4. Yo u get $6. 00 i f y o u rol l a s e v e n on a pai r of di c e and y o u l os e $1. 00 i f y o u rol l
any ot her numbe r . *
5. Yo u ge t $35. 00 i f y o u rol l a 12 on a pai r of di c e and y o u l os e $1. 00 i f y ou rol l any
ot her numbe r .
DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Sailing, swimming, or tennis?
Suppos e t hat y o u ha v e t o ma k e pl ans one s umme r e v e n i n g whe t he r t o go
sai l i ng or s wi mmi ng t he next day. T h e we a t he r f orecast i s " s u n n y " but says not hi ng
about wi nds . Yo u ha v e no i de a whe t he r i t wi l l be wi n d y or not . Pr epar at i ons have
t o be ma de now, s o y o u can' t wa i t ti l l t omor r ow t o s ee wha t t he wi nds wi l l be l i ke.
You k no w t hat i f t he wi nds are good, s ai l i ng wi l l be e xc e l l e nt . I f i t' s not wi ndy ,
t hough, sai l i ng wi l l be hot and dul l . On t he ot her hand, s wi mmi ng wi l l be c hi l l y and
unc omf or t abl e i f i t i s wi ndy , but per f ec t i f i t i sn' t. To he l p wi t h t he de c i s i on y o u
pr epar e a t abl e l i ke t hat s ho wn i n Ta b l e 1. T h e al t er nat i ve act i ons t hat we are t r yi ng
t o de c i de a mo ng are s ho wn i n t he r ows of t he t abl e and t he uncer t ai n states of
nat ure whi c h af f ect t he out c ome s of t hes e act i ons are s ho wn as c ol umns . T h e val ues
of t he var i ous out c ome s are i ndi c at ed by t he numbe r s i n t he c el l s .
Tabl e 1. Val ues of Acti vi ti es i n Two Kinds of Weat her
Wi n d y Ca l m Ro w Mi ni ma
Sai l i ng 10 - 5 - 5
S wi mmi n g - 2 8
_ 2 * *
Te nni s - 3 4 - 3
Filtering out Al ternati ves
Wha t e v e r st rat egy we de c i de t o us e i n appr oac hi ng de c i s i on pr obl e ms , i t i s
wi s e t o ma k e a habi t of de t e r mi ni ng i f any of t he al t er nat i ves i s domi nat e d by any
ot her al t er nat i ve and c oul d t her ef or e be el i mi nat ed. Fr o m Ta b l e 1 we can s ee t hat
s wi mmi ng domi nat e s t enni s be c a us e for e v e r y state of nat ur e t he out c ome for
s wi mmi ng i s bet t er t han t he out c ome for t enni s .
FOUR STRATEGIES
We wi l l de s c r i be f our st rat egi es for ma ki ng de c i s i ons unde r uncer t ai nt y: t he
mi ni - max st rat egy, t he maxi - max st rat egy, t he Hu r wi c z st rat egy, and t he mi ni - max
r egr et st rat egy. We wi l l us e e a c h of t hes e st rat egi es t o ar r i ve at a de c i s i on i n t he
s ai l i ng- s wi mmi ng di l e mma .
The Mi ni -max Strategy
Thi s st rat egy, fi rst de s c r i be d by v on Ne u ma n n ( see Vo n Ne u ma n n and Morgeri -
stern, 1944), i s a v e r y c ons er vat i ve, pes s i mi s t i c st rat egy wh i c h a s s ume s t hat what -
e v e r act i on we c hoos e , nat ur e i s agai nst us and wi l l c aus e t he wor s t pos s i bl e
out c ome. Th u s , i f we de c i de t o go sai l i ng, t he st rat egy ma ke s t he g l oomy as s ump-
t i on t hat t he wi nds wi l l be c al m. On t he ot her hand, i f we de c i de t o go s wi mmi ng ,
t hen t he st rat egy a s s ume s t hat t he we a t he r wi l l be wi ndy . T h e val ue s of t hes e wor s t
out c ome s , t he r ow mi ni ma , are s hown i n t he r i ght - hand c o l umn of Ta bl e 1 .
* When rolling two di ce, the outcomes from 2 through 12 are not equal l y likely. If you don' t
know how to find out what the probabilities are, consult the Appendi x on Probabilities.
**Best choi ce.
Deal i ng Wi th Chance i n Deci si on Maki ng 767
T h e mi ni - max st rat egy cal l s for c hoos i ng t he act i on t hat gi ve s us t he be s t
(l argest) of t he s e mi ni ma. Tha t i s, i t c hoos es t he act i on who s e wor s t pos s i bl e out -
c o me i s not as ba d as t he wor s t pos s i bl e out c ome s of t he ot her act i ons. Th u s , s i nce
t he wor s t pos s i bl e out c ome for sai l i ng i s 5 and t he wor s t pos s i bl e out c ome for
s wi mmi ng i s - 2 , t he mi ni - max st rat egy c hoos e s s wi mmi ng . ( Re me mbe r , t enni s wa s
e l i mi na t e d b e c a us e i t wa s domi na t e d by s wi mmi ng. )
T h e mi ni - max st rat egy has t he ni c e pr oper t y t hat i t guar ant ees an out c ome
wh i c h i s no wor s e t han t he mi ni mu m val ue for t he act i on. T h e out c ome ma y be
bet t er t han t hat mi ni mum, but i t wi l l cer t ai nl y be no wor s e . Ho we v e r , t hi s st rat egy,
wh i c h f ocuses on pr e v e nt i ng di sast er, has t he unf or t unat e pr oper t y t hat i t may
el i mi nat e t he be s t out c ome s f rom cons i der at i on.
The Maxi -max Strategy
A mor e adv e nt ur ous appr oac h t o maki ng de c i s i ons i s t o us e t he maxi - max
st rat egy. Thi s i s an opt i mi s t i c st rat egy whi c h as s ume s t hat nat ur e wi l l c ooper at e
wi t h us t o pr ov i de t he be s t pos s i bl e out c ome for t he act i on we c hoos e . T h e val ue s
of t hes e be s t pos s i bl e out c ome s , t he r ow maxi ma, are s ho wn i n t he r i ght - hand
c ol umn of Ta b l e 2. T h e maxi - max st rat egy c hoos es t he act i on whi c h y i e l ds t he be s t
of t he be s t pos s i bl e out c ome s . I n t hi s cas e, i t c hoos es sai l i ng. Thi s st rat egy has t he
ni c e pr oper t y of guar ant e e i ng y o u a c ha nc e of obt ai ni ng t he be s t pos s i bl e out c ome .
Ho we v e r , i t doe s not de f e nd y o u agai nst t he pos s i bi l i t y t hat y o u ma y obt ai n t he
wor s t pos s i bl e out c ome , as doe s t he mi ni - max st rat egy.
Tabl e 2. Val ues of Two Acti vi ti es i n Two Kinds of Weat her
Wi n d y
Ca l m Ro w Ma x i ma
Sai l i ng 10 - 5 1 0 *
S wi mmi n g - 2 8 8
The Hur wi cz Strategy
Thi s st rat egy ( Hur wi c z , 1953) al l ows a c o mp r o mi s e d e p e n d i n g on h o w opt i -
mi st i c y o u f e e l b e t we e n t he v e r y pes s i mi s t i c mi ni - max st rat egy and t he v e r y
opt i mi st i c maxi - max st rat egy. To us e t he Hu r wi c z st rat egy, s el ec t a v a l ue b e t we e n
0 and 1 for t he c oef f i c i ent of opt i mi s m, A. L o w val ue s of A, s uc h as 0. 1 or 0. 2, are
pessi mi st i c and r ef l ect a b e l i e f t hat ba d t hi ngs are mor e l i ke l y t o happe n. Hi g h
val ues , s uch as 0.8 or 0. 9, are opt i mi st i c. Le t ' s a s s ume t hat we are b e i ng sl i ght l y
pes s i mi s t i c and c hoos e A = 0.4. Fi nd both t he r ow mi ni ma and t he r ow maxi ma as
s hown i n Ta b l e 3.
Tabl e 3. Comput at i ons for the Hur wi cz Strategy
We i g ht e d Mi n.
Wi n d y Ca l m Ro w Max. Ro w Mi n. & Max.
Sai l i ng 10 - 5 10 - 5 1
S wi mmi n g - 2 8 8 - 2 2 *
For e a c h r ow we c o mput e
A( Max. ) + (1 - A) Mi n.
*Best choi ce.
Thus for s ai l i ng we get
. 4(10) + .6(-5)
= 4 - 3
= 1.0
For s wi mmi ng we ge t
.4(8) + . 6( - 2 )
= 3. 2 - 1. 2
= 2.0
No w c hoos e t he act i vi t y whi c h yi el ds t he ma x i mum of t hes e c o mp ut e d quant i t i es.
I n t hi s cas e, t he c hoi c e i s s wi mmi ng . Not i c e t hat wh e n A i s z er o, t he Hur wi c z
st rat egy i s t he s ame as t he mi ni - max st rat egy; wh e n A i s 1, t he Hu r wi c z st rat egy i s
t he s ame as t he maxi - max st rat egy.
Another Example
Th r e e br ot her s Ma nny , Mo e , and J a c k o wn a baker y. Si nc e t he bake r y has
b e e n ma k i ng a prof i t , t he br ot her s de c i de t o i nves t t hei r sur pl us. Four i nv e s t me nt
pos s i bi l i t i es oc c ur t o t he m:
1. Ex pa ndi ng f aci l i t i es t o i ncr eas e br e ad pr oduc t i on
2. Ad d i n g a l i ne of past ri es
3. I nv e s t i ng i n t he st ock mar ket
4. St art i ng a br e a d de l i v e r y s er vi ce.
T h e br ot her s r e c og ni z e t hat t he e x pe c t e d ret urn on t hei r i nv e s t me nt wi l l d e p e nd on
t he state of t he e c onomy . Ta b l e 4 s ummar i z es t hei r es t i mat es of t he pe r c e nt ret urn
t o be e x pe c t e d for e a c h al t er nat i ve unde r var i ous states of t he e c onomy .
Tabl e 4. Percent Return on Four Investments in Three States of t he Economy
Bet t er Sa me Wor s e Max. Mi n. Hu r wi c z
Mor e br e a d 20 10 2 20 2 1 1 *
Past ri es 30 1 2 - 1 0 3 0* - 1 0 10
St ocks 8 6 4 8 4* 6
De l i v e r y 10 4 - 2 0
T h e br ot her s c an agr e e t o el i mi nat e t he de l i v e r y s er vi c e al t er nat i ve si nce i t i s
domi na t e d by t wo of t he ot her al t er nat i ves. Ho we v e r , t he y can' t agr ee on whi c h of
t he r e ma i ni ng t hr ee al t er nat i ves i s be s t b e c a us e Ma nny i s v e r y c ons er vat i ve, Jack
i s wi l dl y opt i mi st i c, and Mo e i s a l i t t l e of eac h. Si nc e Ma nny i s c ons er vat i ve, he
appl i es t he mi ni - max st r at egy and de c i de s t hat t he safe and s ane t hi ng t o do i s t o
i nves t i n st ocks. Jack, wi t h vi s i ons of a gi ant i ndus t r y da nc i ng i n hi s head, appl i es
t he maxi - max st rat egy and de c i de s t hat ma ki ng past ri es i s t he rout e t o we a l t h and
powe r . Mo e , wh o s e opt i mi s m coef f i ci ent i s 0.5, appl i es t he Hu r wi c z st rat egy and
de c i de s t hat t hei r be s t opt i on i s t o i ncr eas e br e ad pr oduc t i on.
Difficulties wi th Expected Val ues
Whi l e ma x i mi z i ng e x pe c t e d val ue s s e e ms t o be a v e r y r eas onabl e wa y t o ma ke
dec i s i ons i n ma ny c as es , t her e are s ome si t uat i ons i n wh i c h i t y i e l ds ans wer s t hat
vi ol at e our i nt ui t i ons, a ns we r s t hat j us t s e e m wr ong. For e x a mpl e , s uppos e that y o u
had t he oppor t uni t y t o c hoos e b e t we e n t he f ol l owi ng of f ers: ei t her y o u wi l l r e c e i v e
one mi l l i on dol l ars for cer t ai n or, d e p e nd i ng on t he f l i p of a fair coi n, y o u wi l l
*Best choi ce.
Deal i ng With Chance in Deci si on Maki ng 769
r e c e i v e f our mi l l i on dol l ars or not hi ng. I n t hi s si t uat i on, I wo u l d mu c h pr ef er t o t ake
t he of f er of one mi l l i on dol l ars for cer t ai n e v e n t hough t he e x pe c t e d v a l ue of t he
ot her of f er i s t wi c e as great (the r eader s houl d c he c k t he di f f er ence i n e x pe c t e d
v a l ue , i f i t i sn' t cl ear. ) Ma ny ot hers ha v e i ndi c at ed t hat t he y wo u l d ma k e t he s ame
c hoi c e I ha v e ma de i n t hi s hypot het i c al si t uat i on.
Le t ' s c ons i de r a mor e pract i cal sort of d e c i s i o n wh e t h e r or not t o buy i nsur-
anc e. No w, we al l k no w t hat i ns ur anc e c ompa ni e s ma k e mone y . T h e e x pe c t e d
v a l ue of an i ns ur anc e pol i c y, t hen, i s pos i t i ve for t he i ns ur anc e c ompany , but
ne gat i v e for t he i ns ur ed per s on. Ye t ma ny pe o pl e , pe r haps most , c hoos e t o b uy
i ns ur anc e, and t hat de c i s i on can' t be r e gar de d as an error. Pe o pl e are wi l l i ng t o
ac c e pt a smal l but cer t ai n l o s s t h e pa y me nt of t he i ns ur anc e p r e mi u mt o avoi d
t he ri sk of a ve r y l ar ge l oss due t o ac c i de nt or deat h, e v e n t houg h t he e x pe c t e d val ue
of t he i ns ur ance pol i c y i s ne gat i v e .
Fi nal l y, l et ' s c ons i de r t he pr obl e m of l ot t eri es: He r e agai n, we k no w t hat
pe opl e wh o r un t he m do s o t o ear n mone y . T h o u g h t he e x pe c t e d v a l ue of b uy i ng
a l ot t ery t i cket i s ne ga t i v e , ma ny pe o pl e b uy t he m we e k after we e k .
Wh y doe s t he e x pe c t e d v a l ue t e c hni que fai l i n t hes e c as es ? Ex p e c t e d val ues
are averages of v a l ue s . T h e y are v e r y appr opr i at e wh e n we are t r yi ng t o bal anc e
val ues t hat ar e c l os e t oget her , e. g. , t he c ha nc e of l os i ng f i ve dol l ars ver s us t he
c hanc e of wi n n i n g t en. Av e r a g e s are mu c h l ess appr opr i at e, t hough, wh e n we
bal anc e val ue s t hat are v e r y di f f erent , s uc h as t he cost of a mode s t i ns ur ance
pa y me nt ver s us t he ri sk of b e i ng i mpov e r i s he d by a ser i ous car ac c i dent , or t he
dol l ar pr i c e of a l ot t ery t i c ket ver s us a pr i z e whi c h wo u l d al l ow us t o qui t our dul l
ol d j ob and mo v e t o Tahi t i .
I n t he f our - mi l l i on- dol l ar g a mbl e , y o u we r e as ke d t o ba l a nc e t he c ha nc e of
not hi ng ver s us t he cer t ai nt y of a f ort une. Mos t c hoos e t he f or t une. But s uppos e y o u
we r e guar ant e e d t hat t he g a mbl e wo u l d be of f er ed t o y o u 20 t i mes i n a r ow. I n t hi s
case, mos t pe o pl e s wi t c h ba c k t o ma x i mi z i ng e x pe c t e d v a l ue s and go for t he f our
mi l l i on dol l ars e a c h t i me. Wh y ? Be c a us e wi t h 20 c ha nc e s , t he ri sk of b e i ng l ef t wi t h
not hi ng pr act i cal l y g oe s a wa y a b s o r b e d by t he l a w of l ar ge numbe r s . No w t he
c hoi c e i s b e t we e n two l i f e- c hangi ng al t er nat i ves and t he di f f er enc e b e t we e n t he m
i s s ubj ec t i vel y mu c h s mal l er t han t he di f f er ence b e t we e n one mi l l i on and zer o.
Af ter al l , i f i t i s har d for us t o i magi ne wha t i t wo u l d be l i ke t o ha v e a mi l l i on, i t i s
e v e n har der t o i ma g i ne t he di f f er ence b e t we e n one mi l l i on and f our mi l l i on.
T h e de c i s i on st rat egy de s c r i be d i n t he next s ect i on ma y be bet t er de s i g ne d
t han ma x i mi z i ng e x pe c t e d v a l ue t o handl e dec i s i ons of t hi s sort.
Mi ni mi zi ng Maxi mum Regret
A de c i s i on pr oc e dur e wh i c h wor ks v e r y we l l for t hos e cas es i n whi c h e x pe c t e d
val ue fai l s i s t he st r at egy of mi ni mi z i ng ma x i mum r egr et ( MMR) . He r e r egr et means
pret t y muc h wha t y o u wo u l d expec t . I ma g i ne t hat y o u have d e c i d e d t o go sai l i ng
and t hat t he wi n d i s c al m. Th e r e y o u are at s e a h o t , s weat y, and r egr et t i ng t hat y ou
di dn' t go s wi mmi ng . We c an t ake t he di f f er ence b e t we e n t he v a l ue of t he out c ome
y ou act ual l y obt ai ned and t he ma x i mum v a l ue y ou c oul d ha v e obt ai ned i f y o u had
c hos en a di f f erent al t er nat i ve as a me a s ur e of regret . We can f orm a r egr et mat ri x
for t he s ai l i ng- s wi mmi ng de c i s i on by c omput i ng r egr et for e a c h pos s i bl e out c ome,
as s hown i n Ta bl e 5. T h e ma x i mum r egr et for e a c h act i on i s s ho wn i n t he ri ght - hand
c ol umn. I f we are t o mi ni mi z e ma x i mum r egr et i n t hi s cas e, we mus t c hoos e
s wi mmi ng. Ta b l e 6 s hows t he r egr et mat ri x for t he ba ke r y pr obl e m. I ncr eas i ng
br ead pr oduc t i on i s t he act i on whi c h mi ni mi z e s ma x i mum regret .
T h e MMR st rat egy can be appl i e d t o t wo pr obl e ms whi c h pr e s e nt e d s ome
di f f i cul t i es for t he e x pe c t e d val ue st rat egy. Th e s e are t he I ns ur anc e and t he Lot t er y
pr obl ems . Ta b l e 7 s hows t he payof f and r egr et mat r i ces for an Aut o I ns ur ance
Payoff Matrix Regret Matrix
Wi n d y Ca l m Wi n d y Ca l m Ma x i mum Re gr e t
Sai l i ng 10 - 5 0 1 3 1 3
S wi mmi n g - 2 8 1 2 0 1 2 *
Tabl e 6. Payoff and Regret Matri ces for the Bakery Probl em
Ec o n o my Ec o n o my
Ma x i mu m
Bet t er S a me Wor s e Bet t er Sa me Wor s e Re gr e t
Br e ad 20 10 2 10 2 2 1 0*
Past ri es 30 1 2 - 1 0 0 0 1 4 1 4
St ocks 8 6 4 22 6 0 22
Tabl e 7. Payoff and Regret Matri ces for an Aut o Insurance Probl em
Ma x i mum
No Ac c i de nt Ac c i de nt No Ac c i de nt Ac c i de nt Re gr e t
I ns ur e - 5 - 5 5 0 5 *
Do n' t I ns ur e 0 - 1 0 0 0 95 95
Tabl e 8. Payoff and Regret Matri ces for the Lottery Probl em
St at e of Wor l d St at e of Wor l d
Lo s e Wi n Lo s e Wi n Ma x i mu m Re g r e t
Be t
Do n' t Be t
- 1 0 100
0 0
10 0
0 100
1 0*
100
Pr obl e m, and Ta b l e 8 for t he Lot t er y Pr obl e m. Us i ng t he MMR st rat egy we wo ul d
de c i de bot h t o b u y i ns ur anc e and t o b e t on t he l ot t ery.
Exercises
Us e t he Hu r wi c z st r at egy wi t h A val ues of 0.0, 0. 2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0, and
mi ni - max r egr et t o f i nd t he be s t al t er nat i ves for e a c h of t he f ol l owi ng payof f ma-
t r i ces:
*Best choi ce.
Tabl e 5. Payoff and Regret Matri ces for the Sai l i ng-Swi mmi ng Probl em
Deal i ng Wi th Chance in Deci si on Maki ng
1. State of Nature
171
JUDGMENTAL PROBABILITIES
We ha v e ma de a sharp di st i nct i on b e t we e n de c i s i ons unde r ri sk, i n whi c h we
can c omput e pr obabi l i t i es , and dec i s i ons unde r uncer t ai nt y, i n whi c h we cannot .
Ac t ual l y t her e i s a br oad r ange of cases b e t we e n t hes e t wo e xt r e me s i n whi c h, whi l e
we can' t c al c ul at e pr obabi l i t i es pr ec i s el y, we c an es t i mat e t he m wi t h var yi ng de-
gr ees of accur acy. We wi l l cal l t hes e pr obabi l i t y es t i mat es " j udg me nt a l pr obabi l i -
t i es . "
The Accur acy of Judgmental Probabilities
Pe o pl e c an be qui t e good at ma ki ng pr obabi l i t y es t i mat es i n cert ai n s i mpl e
si t uat i ons. Fo r e x a mpl e , i n an e x pe r i me nt by Robi ns on ( 1964) whe r e pe o pl e we r e
e x pos e d t o a s e q u e nc e of l i ght s whi c h f l ashed on t he l ef t and t he ri ght , t hey we r e
ve r y accur at e i n es t i mat i ng t he pr obabi l i t y t hat a f l ash wo u l d be on t he l eft or t he
ri ght. About t wo- t hi r ds of t he s ubj ect s ' j udg me nt s f el l wi t hi n . 10 of t he t rue
pr opor t i ons. Fur t her , g i v e n l ong e x pe r i e nc e , p e o p l e can ma k e good pr obabi l i t y
est i mat es e v e n i n c o mpl e x si t uat i ons. Pet er s on et al ( 1972) and Mur phy and
Wi nkl e r ( 1974) s h o we d t hat e x pe r i e nc e d met eor ol ogi s t s we r e v e r y good at est i mat -
i ng t he pr obabi l i t y t hat t he t emper at ur e wo u l d fal l wi t hi n a s pec i f i ed r ange.
Whi l e pe o pl e i n t he si t uat i ons de s c r i be d a bov e we r e v e r y accur at e i n est i mat -
i ng pr obabi l i t i es , we s houl d e mpha s i z e t hat pe opl e ' s pr obabi l i t y est i mat es are
not uni ver s al l y good. The i r s uc c es s de pe nds on ha v i ng appr opr i at e infor-
ma t i o no b t a i ne d ei t her t hr ough i mme di a t e pe r c e pt i on or l ong e xpe r i e nc e . Wh e n
pe o pl e are as ked t o ma k e j udg me nt s about t opi cs i n whi c h t he y are not expert , t hey
may do ve r y poor l y. For e x a mpl e , Al pe r t and Rai f f a (1969) as ked subj ect s quest i ons
of t he f ol l owi ng ki nd: " Ho w ma ny f or ei gn cars we r e i mpor t ed i nt o t he Uni t ed
States i n 1 968?
a. Ma k e a hi g h es t i mat e s uc h t hat y ou f eel t her e i s onl y a one pe r c e nt pr obabi l -
i ty t he t rue a ns we r wo u l d e x c e e d your es t i mat e.
b. Ma k e a l o w es t i mat e s uc h t hat y o u f eel t her e i s onl y a one pe r c e nt pr oba-
bi l i t y t hat t he t rue a ns we r wo u l d be b e l o w thi s e s t i mat e . "
T h e y f ound t hat i n 40 t o 50 pe r c e nt of cas es , t he t rue a ns we r f el l out s i de of t he r ange
of val ues s pec i f i ed by t he subj ect . I n short, pe o pl e we r e t er r i bl e at maki ng t hes e
j udg me nt s .
Gambl er' s Fallacy
E v e n i n s i mpl e si t uat i ons, t hough, pe opl e are s ubj ect t o s ys t emat i c errors i n
es t i mat i ng pr obabi l i t i es . Re c e nt l y a l ocal sports c omment at or a r gue d t hat t he Oak-
l and Rai der s we r e e s pe c i a l l y l i ke l y t o wi n t he upc o mi ng Supe r bo wl g a me be c a us e
of " t he l aw of a v e r a g e s . " He e mpha s i z e d r e pe at e dl y and wi t h c ons i de r a bl e assur-
anc e t hat s i nc e t he y had l ost a st ri ng of Supe r bo wl g a me s i n t he r e c e nt past , i t wa s ,
by t he l a w of a v e r a ge s , t hei r t urn t o wi n. Ma ny b e l i e v e t hat t hi s l aw of ave r age s i s
a stati sti cal t rut h. In fact, t hi s so- cal l ed l a w i s a ver y c o mmo n i l l u s i o n s o c o mmo n
t hat st at i st i ci ans ha v e na me d i t t he " Ga mbl e r ' s Fa l l a c y . "
Le t ' s t ake a v e r y cl ear case. Suppos e we ha v e a fair c o i n t h a t i s, a c oi n wi t h
a 0.5 pr obabi l i t y of c o mi ng up he ads and a 0.5 pr obabi l i t y of c o mi ng up tai l s. In a
r eas onabl e mood, wh i c h i s most of t he t i me, we wo u l d al l agr ee that t he coi n has
no me mo r y at al l . I t i s j us t a met al di sk. I f we c oul d i magi ne s ome wa y t o ask it, " On
y our l ast f l i p, di d y o u c o me up he a ds or t ai l s ?" we wo u l d ha v e t o b e l i e v e its ans we r
wo u l d b e , " Wha t f l i p? I don' t r e me mb e r any f l i p! ! " Ye t st range t hi ngs ha ppe n t o us
wh e n we act ual l y b e g i n t o f l i p t he coi n. I ma g i ne that t he first t wo f l i ps are heads ,
and t he n t he t hi r d f l i p i s a head, t oo. We be g i n t o s us pec t t hat t he f ourt h f l i p wi l l
be a t ai l , but n o a n o t h e r he a d! What ' s ha ppe ni ng ? ! Sur el y t he next f l i p wi l l be a
tai l , or at l east we f eel t hat t he pr obabi l i t y i s ve r y hi gh. Af t er al l , ac c or di ng t o t he
l aw of ave r age s it' s t i me for a tai l t o t urn up. We ha v e f orgot t en, of c our s e, that t he
c oi n has no me mor y . I t k no ws not hi ng of t he past and i s b e h a v i ng on t he fifth f l i p
j us t as i t di d on t he first. In bot h cas es , t he pr obabi l i t y of a tai l i s 0.5. To avoi d t he
gambl er ' s f al l acy, we s houl d f orget t he past , j us t as t he c oi n doe s , and treat e a c h f l i p
as an e v e nt i nd e p e nd e nt of al l pr evi ous f l i ps .
Li nds a y and Nor ma n ( 1972) poi nt out t hat y o u can us e t he gambl er ' s f al l acy t o
ear n mo ne y :
In horse racing, this psychol ogi cal tendency [the gambler' s fallacy] suggests that you
ought to bet on the favorite whenever favorites have been consistently wi nni ng in
the previ ous few races. The assumption is that the other betters wi l l operate accord-
i ng to the gambler' s fallacy: They wi l l assume it less and less likely that yet another
favorite wi l l wi n. Thi s tendency woul d make the odds deviate from the objective
probabilities and thus provi des the opportunity for a good bet. (p. 548)
THE DIFFICULTY OF REVISING AN OPI NI ON
Anot he r di f f i cul t y i n us i ng pr obabi l i t i es ari ses be c a us e pe o pl e are of t en not
ve r y ef f ect i ve i n us i ng n e w i nf ormat i on t o modi f y ol d opi ni ons . Thi s i nef f ect i ve-
nes s i s i l l ust r at ed c l ear l y i n a s t udy by Phi l l i ps and Edwa r ds (1966).
Phi l l i ps a nd Ed wa r d s s h o we d t hei r subj ect s a s e que nc e of r ed and whi t e poke r
chi ps dr a wn f rom a bag. T h e subj ect s k n e w t hat t he ba g c ont ai ned ei t her 70 r ed and
30 whi t e c hi ps , or 30 r ed and 70 whi t e c hi ps . Fur t her , t hey we r e t ol d that t he
pr obabi l i t y t hat t he b a g wa s pr e domi nant l y r ed was e qua l t o t he pr obabi l i t y that i t
wa s pr e domi nant l y whi t e . T h e subj ect s' t ask wa s t o ma ke an es t i mat e of t he proba-
bi l i t y t hat t he ba g wa s pr e domi nant l y r ed or pr e domi nant l y whi t e , after s e e i ng eac h
s uc c e s s i v e c hi p. Le t ' s a s s ume t hat t he c hi ps are b e i ng dr a wn f r om a ba g of most l y
r ed c hi ps . Bef or e s e e i ng any c hi ps , t he subj ect est i mat es t hat t he pr obabi l i t y i s
about 0. 50 t hat t he b a g cont ai ns mos t l y r ed c hi ps . Ty pi c a l l y , as he s ees mor e and
mor e c hi ps , he i nc r eas es hi s es t i mat e of t he pr obabi l i t y t hat t he b a g i s mos t l y r ed.
Deal i ng Wi th Chance in Deci si on Maki ng 773
Ho we v e r , he doe s n' t i ncr eas e i t near l y as fast as he ought t o on t he basi s of t he
e v i de nc e . Ed wa r d s es t i mat es that subj ect s ge t b e t we e n one- hal f and one-f i f th of t he
avai l abl e i nf or mat i on f rom e a c h c hi p. Wha t doe s t hi s me a n i n t er ms of accur acy of
pr obabi l i t y es t i mat es ? I n t hi s si t uat i on, i f subj ect s dr e w e i ght r ed c hi ps and f our
whi t e one s , t he y should es t i mat e t he pr obabi l i t y of a mos t l y r ed ba g at 0. 964. In fact,
Rai f f a (1968) f ound t hat hi s stati sti cs st udent s c l us t e r e d t hei r est i mat es ar ound
0. 7 0ne a r l y 30 pe r c e nt too l ow.
Pe o pl e aren' t a l wa y s i nef f ect i ve i n us i ng n e w i nf or mat i on ( see, for e xampl e ,
Ed wa r d s , 1968). Ho we v e r , t her e are e no ug h si t uat i ons i n wh i c h t hey are i nef f ect i ve
t o s ugges t t hat s ome ai ds for r evi s i ng j udg me nt s c oul d be v e r y hel pf ul t o dec i s i on
maker s . T h e ai d wh i c h we wi l l s ugges t i s Ba y e s ' Th e o r e m.
Bayes' Theor em*
Ba y e s ' Th e o r e m i s a pr oc e dur e for r evi s i ng opi ni ons on t he basi s of n e w evi -
de nc e . Suppos e t hat we hol d s ome opi ni ons ( hypot hes es ) about t he state of t he
wor l d. For e x a mpl e , i f we we r e me di c a l r es ear cher s we mi g ht b e l i e v e t hat t her e i s
a 75 pe r c e nt c ha nc e t hat a cer t ai n di s eas e i s c a us e d by or gani s m A ( Hypot hes i s 1)
and a 25 pe r c e nt c ha nc e t hat i t i s not ( Hypot hes i s 2). Next , we f i nd s ome n e w
e v i d e nc e about our hy pot he s e s . For e x a mpl e , we mi g ht r e c e i v e a report t hat a case
of t he di s e as e has b e e n obs e r v e d whi c h does not appear t o i nv ol v e or gani s m A. We
no w wa nt t o r evi s e our opi ni ons on t he basi s of t he n e w e v i de nc e . I n part i cul ar, we
wa nt t o r e duc e t he pr obabi l i t y of Hy pot he s i s 1 and i nc r eas e t he pr obabi l i t y of
Hy pot he s i s 2.
To us e Ba y e s ' Th e o r e m t o do t hi s, we ne e d one mor e set of pr obabi l i t i es . For
e a c h hy pot he s i s , we n e e d t o k no w t he pr obabi l i t y t hat t he n e w e v i d e nc e wo u l d
ha v e b e e n obt ai ne d i f t hat hypot hes i s we r e t rue. I n t he me di c a l r es ear c h e xampl e ,
we wi l l n e e d t o k no w t wo pr obabi l i t i es : we wi l l n e e d t o k no w t he pr obabi l i t y of
obs e r v i ng a case of t he di s eas e wi t hout obs e r v i ng or gani s m Af i r s t , as s umi ng t hat
Hy pot he s i s 1 i s t r ue, and s ec ond, as s umi ng t hat Hy pot he s i s 2 i s t r ue. We wi l l cal l
t hes e pr obabi l i t i es P ( E| H1 ) and P( E| H2) , wh i c h s houl d be r ead, " t he pr obabi l i t y
of t he e v i d e nc e g i v e n t hat HI i s t r ue , " and, " t he pr obabi l i t y of t he e v i d e nc e g i v e n
that H2 i s t r ue . " ( The ver t i cal bar i s r ead as " g i v e n " or " g i v e n t hat . ")
Ac c o r di ng t o Ba y e s ' Th e o r e m, t he n e w pr obabi l i t y we ought t o assi gn t o HI
g i v e n t he n e w e v i d e n c e i s
whe r e P( H1 ) and P( H2) are our or i gi nal es t i mat es of t he pr obabi l i t i es of HI and H2.
No w, i n t he me di c a l r es ear c h e x a mpl e , as s ume t hat t her e i s a smal l pr obabi l i t y,
say, . 05, t hat t he di s e as e c oul d be obs e r v e d wi t hout f i ndi ng t races of or gani s m A
e v e n i f Hy pot he s i s 1 i s t rue. Tha t i s, P( E| H1 ) = . 05. As s u me f urt her t hat t her e i s a
l arge pr obabi l i t y, say, 0. 90, t hat t he di s eas e c oul d be obs e r v e d wi t hout f i ndi ng
or gani sm A i f Hy pot he s i s 2 i s t r ue, t hat i s, P( E| H2) = .90. By Ba y e s ' The o r e m, our
n e w val ue for t he pr obabi l i t y of HI i s
P ( H1 | E) =
P( E| H1 ) x P( H1 )
P ( E| H1 ) x P( H1 ) + P( E| H2) x P( H2)
P ( Hl | E ) =
(.05) (.75)
(.05) (.75) + (.90) (.25)
. 0375
. 0375 + . 225
= 0. 143
*Many students find the sections on Bayes' Theorem difficult. They may be skipped
without spoiling the continuity of the discussion.
I n ot her wor ds , wh e n we t ake t he n e w e v i d e nc e i nt o ac c ount , our 75 pe r c e nt
c onf i de nc e i n Hy pot he s i s 1 s houl d be r e duc e d dr ast i cal l y t o 14 pe r c e nt ac c or di ng
t o Ba y e s ' Th e o r e m.
Wh y us e s uc h a c o mpl e x pr oc e dur e t o ma ke a s i mpl e de c i s i on? T h e r eason i s
t hat as t he Phi l l i ps and Ed wa r d s st udy s ho we d, pe o pl e don' t ma k e ve r y good us e
of n e w i nf or mat i on t o modi f y t hei r pr evi ous o p i n i o n s t h e y are ve r y cons er vat i ve
about c ha ng i ng t hei r mi nds . Cl e ar l y , pe o pl e n e e d s ome he l p i f t he y are t o make
adequat e us e of n e w i nf or mat i on. T h e c omput at i ons i nv ol v e d i n us i ng Ba y e s ' The o -
r em, whi l e t he y wo u l d be a nui s anc e i n ma ki ng a t ri vi al de c i s i on, are r eal l y we l l
wor t h t he ef f ort i f t he de c i s i on i s an i mpor t ant one .
The Fido Caper
Suppos e t hat y o u l ef t y our dog Fi do at ho me t o guar d y our hous e s o that
bur gl ar s wo u l d not br eak i n and st eal t he 1 0- pound roast t hat i s def r os t i ng on t he
count er . Wh e n y o u ge t ba c k t he l ocks are al l i n good order, s o y o u k no w t hat no
bur gl ar has e nt e r e d. Ho we v e r , t he roast i s gone . Ne e dl e s s t o say, Fi do i s a pr i me
suspect .
On t he bas i s of past e x pe r i e nc e , t wo sessi ons wi t h t he dog psychi at ri st , and a
cert ai n shi f ty l ook i n hi s e y e , y o u j udg e t he pr obabi l i t y i s 0. 95 t hat Fi do di d it.
Ho we v e r , be f or e f or ci ng Fi do t o rol e pl ay as t he mi s s i ng roast, y o u de c i de t o c ol l ec t
one f urt her pi e c e of e v i de nc e . Yo u pr epar e hi s or di nar y di nne r and offer i t t o hi m.
To y our sur pr i se, he g o bbl e s i t up t o t he l ast c r umb. Har dl y wha t y o u wo u l d e xpe c t
of t he t hi ef wh o j us t ma d e a 1 0- pound roast di s appear . Yo u es t i mat e t hat t he proba-
bi l i t y t hat Fi do wo u l d do t hi s i f he had i n f act eat en t he roast i s onl y 0.02. Nor mal l y,
t hough, he has a good appet i t e and eat s hi s di nne r wi t h a pr obabi l i t y of 0. 99. Ho w
are y o u t o r evi s e y our ear l i er s us pi ci ons g i v e n t he e v i d e nc e of t he r eadi l y eat en
di nne r ? Cl e a r l y , Ba y e s ' T h e o r e m can c o me t o t he r e s c ue as f ol l ows : T h e pr obabi l i t y
that Fi do i s gui l t y g i v e n t hat he j us t ate hi s di nne r i s
Deal i ng With Chance in Deci si on Maki ng
175
0. 0190 + 0. 0495
= 0. 0190
~ 0. 0685
= .28
Thi ng s l o o k e d v e r y ba d for Fi do bef or e t he di nne r e x pe r i me nt . Ho we v e r , wi t h
t he ai d of Ba y e s ' Th e o r e m, we we r e abl e t o t ake t he resul t s of t he di nne r exper i -
me nt i nt o ac c ount and c onc l ude t hat Fi do wa s pr obabl y i nnoc ent . An y o n e wh o
l ove s dogs c an s ee t he v a l ue of Ba y e s ' Th e o r e m.
The Antique Problem
On e da y wa l k i ng past an ant i que st ore, y o u spot wha t y o u are cer t ai n, we l l , 80
pe r c e nt cer t ai n, i s an ant i que chai r wor t h about $100. On t he ot her hand, y o u
r e c ogni z e t hat t her e i s a 20 pe r c e nt c ha nc e t hat i t i s wor t hl es s . Yo u k no w t hat t he
o wne r of t he s hop i s r eas onabl y c ompe t e nt i n di s t i ngui s hi ng ant i ques f rom j unk. I f
i t i s an ant i que , t her e i s onl y one c ha nc e i n 10 t hat he wi l l fai l t o r e c og ni z e it. On
t he ot her hand, i f i t i s j unk, t her e i s a v e r y hi g h pr obabi l i t y, 0. 98, t hat he wi l l
r e c ogni z e i t as j unk.
Yo u ent er t he st ore and say, " Ho w mu c h for t hat c ha i r ? " T h e o wn e r says, " F i v e
dol l ar s . " Cl e a r l y , he t hi nks i t i s j unk. Us i ng t hi s i nf or mat i on, de t e r mi ne
A. a n e w ( Bayes i an) es t i mat e of t he pr obabi l i t y t hat t he chai r i s an ant i que, and
B. whe t he r y o u s houl d b u y i t or not.
Answer t o A. Hy pot he s i s HI i s t hat t he chai r i s an ant i que. Hy pot he s i s H2 i s
that t he chai r i s j unk. T h e n e w e v i de nc e , E, i s t hat t he ant i que de a l e r t hi nks it' s
j unk.
Your i ni t i al opi ni ons are
P( H1 ) = 0.8 and P( H2) = 0.2
T h e r e v i s e d pr obabi l i t y i s
P( H1 | E) -
0 1 0
*
0 8

T h e n e w e v i de nc e , t he n, s houl d r e duc e your c onf i de nc e t hat t he chai r i s an
ant i que.
Answer to B: To buy or not to buy? No w e v e n t hough y o u are l ess c onf i dent
t hat t he chai r i s an ant i que, i t c oul d sti l l be a good buy . Tha t i s, t he ri sk may be
wor t h t he cost . Le t ' s c omput e t he e x pe c t e d val ue of t he pur c has e. I f i t i s an ant i que
( P = 0. 29), t he n y o u gai n $95 ($100 chai r mi nus t he $5 pur c has e pr i ce) . If it' s j unk
( P = 0. 71) , y o u l ose $5. T h e e x pe c t e d v a l ue of t he pur c has e , t he n, i s
E V = (95) (.29) - (5) (. 71)
= $27. 55 - $3. 55
= $24. 00
I f y o u c an s cr ape t oget her t he f i ve dol l ar s, t hen y o u ought t o t ake t he ri sk.
How t o Understand Bayes' Theorem
Just be f or e t he di nne r e x pe r i me nt t her e we r e f our pos s i bl e out c ome s we wo u l d
i magi ne , as s ho wn i n Ta b l e 9. Be c a us e t hes e are t he onl y pos s i bi l i t i es , t he proba-
bi l i t i es of t hes e f our al t er nat i ves s um t o 1.
Tabl e 9. Four Possible Out c omes of the Di nner Experiment
Fi do gui l t y and Fi do i nnoc e nt and
eat s di nne r eat s di nner
P = . 0095 P = . 0495 X = 0590
Fi do gui l t y and Fi do i nnoc ent and
does n' t eat di nne r does n' t eat di nne r
P = . 9405 P = .0005 2 = . 9410
2 = 1
Si nc e Fi do di d eat hi s di nner , t he di nne r e x pe r i me nt e l i mi na t e d t wo of t hes e
f our al t er nat i ves. T h e e l i mi na t e d al t er nat i ves are t he l o we r t wo i n Ta b l e 9. Si nc e
one or t he ot her of t he r e ma i ni ng t wo al t er nat i ves must occur , t he pr obabi l i t i es of
these t wo al t er nat i ves mus t n o w s um t o 1. Tha t i s, t he t wo al t er nat i ves wh o s e
pr obabi l i t i es s u mme d t o . 0590 bef or e t he di nne r e x pe r i me nt mus t s um t o 1 after t he
di nne r e xpe r i me nt . T h e pr obabi l i t i es of t hes e al t er nat i ves mus t be i nc r eas ed as a
r es ul t of t he n e w e v i de nc e . Ba y e s ' Th e o r e m i s j us t a wa y of i nc r eas i ng t he pr obabi l -
i t i es so t hat t he n e w v a l ue of e a c h pr obabi l i t y i s pr opor t i onal t o its or i gi nal val ue.
Exercises
1 . Suppo s e Fi d o had r ef us ed hi s di nner . Fi rst , gues s t he pr obabi l i t y t hat Fi d o wa s
t he roast thi ef . Ne x t c omput e t he pr obabi l i t y us i ng Ba y e s ' t he or e m.
2. Suppo s e t hat a b a g has a 0.5 c ha nc e of c ont ai ni ng 70 gr e e n c hi ps and 30 whi t e
c hi ps , and a 0.5 c ha nc e of c ont ai ni ng 70 whi t e chi ps and 30 g r e e n c hi ps . A gr e e n
c hi p i s dr a wn f rom t he b a g at r andom and t he n r e pl ac e d. Wha t i s t he pr obabi l i t y
n o w t hat t he b a g i s pr e domi na nt l y g r e e n?
3. A s e c ond g r e e n c hi p i s dr a wn at r andom. What i s t he n e w pr obabi l i t y t hat t he ba g
i s pr e domi na nt l y g r e e n?
DECISIONS UNDER CONFLI CT
Wh e n we pl ay a g a me agai nst nat ur e, as i n t he s a i l i ng- s wi mmi ng dec i s i on, we
can v i e w t he mi ni - max st rat egy as a c ons er vat i ve one , b e c a us e we don' t r eal l y
b e l i e v e t hat nat ur e i s t r yi ng t o ar r ange t he wor s t out c ome s for us. Wh e n we pl ay a
g a me agai ns t a huma n oppone nt , ho we v e r , t he mi ni - max st rat egy i sn' t at al l conser-
vat i ve. We know our oppone nt i s ac t i vel y t r yi ng t o do us i n. T h e mi ni - max st rat egy
i s t he onl y one we wi l l us e for anal yz i ng dec i s i ons unde r conf l i ct .
A Two-Person Zero-Sum Ga me
Gi o v a nni and Hans , t he owne r s of a t own' s onl y t wo rest aurant s, are nat ural l y
i n c ompe t i t i on wi t h e a c h ot her. Ea c h can afford t o try any one of a set of st rat egi es
t o attract c us t omer s a wa y f rom t he ot her ( see Ta bl e 10). For Gi o v a nni t her e i s G l ,
a f ree gl ass of r ed wi ne ; G2 , wai t er s wh o s i ng Ve r di ; and G3 , hal f - pri ce pi zza. For
Hans , t her e i s HI , c he a p be e r ; H2, wai t er s wh o y o de l ; H3 , f ree sauerkraut ; and H4,
Pumpk i n St r eudel Ni ght . Ta b l e 10, t he payof f mat ri x for Gi ov a nni , s hows t he
pe r c e nt of t he total mar ke t t hat Gi ov a nni can wi n f rom Ha ns wh e n e a c h c hoos es one
of t he avai l abl e st r at egi es. Pos i t i ve val ues are good for Gi ov a nni , and negat i ve
val ues are good for Hans . We a s s ume t hat wha t Gi o v a nni gai ns , Hans l os es , and vi c e
versa. Tha t i s, t he s um of Gi ov anni ' s gai ns (or l osses) and Ha ns ' l os s es (or gai ns) i s
zero. Suc h a g a me , i n wh i c h t he s um of gai ns and l osses a dde d up ov e r al l pl ayer s
is zer o, is c al l e d a zero-sum game.
Not i c e i n Ta b l e 1 0 t hat Ha ns ' st rat egy H4, Pumpk i n St r e ude l Ni g ht ( whi c h
hol ds its o wn onl y agai ns t s i ngi ng wai t er s) i s domi na t e d by HI and H3, whi c h have
l owe r scor es ( bet t er for Hans ) fqr e a c h of Gi ov anni ' s st r at egi es. H4 i s t heref ore
I n Ta b l e 1 1 , t he r ow mi ni ma are t he val ue s of t he wor s t out c ome s (from Gi o-
vanni ' s poi nt of v i e w) for e a c h of hi s st rat egi es. T h e c o l umn ma x i ma are t he val ue s
of t he wor s t out c ome s (from Ha ns ' poi nt of v i e w) for e a c h of his st rat egi es. T h e
mi ni - max de c i s i on for Gi o v a nni i s G3 , hal f - pri ce pi z z a, and for Hans , HI , c he a p
beer . I f Gi o v a nni adopt s st rat egy G3 , he wi l l pi c k up at l east one pe r c e nt of t he
mar ket and he ma y ge t mor e i f Hans devi at es f rom hi s mi ni - max st rat egy. I f Hans
adopt s st rat egy HI , he wi l l l os e no mor e t han one pe r c e nt of t he mar ket and he may
l ose l ess i f Gi o v a nni de vi at e s f rom hi s mi ni - max st rat egy. I n t hi s cas e, i t i s bes t for
e a c h par t i ci pant t o adopt a s i ngl e pur e st rat egy. Gi o v a nni s houl d al way s us e G3 ,
and Hans s houl d a l wa y s us e HI . Th e r e are ma ny c as es , t hough, i n whi c h t he
part i ci pant s s houl d adopt mixed strategies. That i s, part of t he t i me t he y s houl d t ake
one act i on and part of t he t i me anot her.
Mi xed or Pure Strategies?
Th e r e i s a s i mpl e t est t o de t e r mi ne whe t he r a pur e or a mi x e d st rat egy i s best .
I f t he ma x i mum of t he r ow mi ni ma (the maxi - mi n) e qua l s t he mi ni mum of t he
c ol umn ma x i ma (t he mi ni - max) , t hen a pur e st rat egy i s bes t . I n t hi s si t uat i on, eac h
pl ay e r doe s be s t pl a y i ng t he mi ni - max st rat egy. I f we pl ay our mi ni - max st rat egy,
our oppone nt s wi l l a l wa y s l os e by devi at i ng f rom t hei r mi ni - max st rat egy. I n t he
s ame wa y , i f our oppone nt s pl ay t hei r mi ni - max st r at egi es, we wi l l al way s l ose by
de vi at i ng f rom our mi ni - max st rat egy. I n t he payof f mat ri x for Gi ov a nni and Hans
( see Ta b l e 1 1 ) , t he maxi - mi n and t he mi ni - max bot h e qua l 1 . Th u s , pur e st rat egi es
are appr opr i at e for t hi s c as e and t hey guar ant ee t hat Gi o v a nni wi l l wi n at l east 1 (the
maxi - mi n) and t hat Ha ns wi l l l ose no mor e t han 1 (the mi ni - max) .
For t he payof f mat ri x i n Ta b l e 1 2, t he mi ni - max i s 1 but t he maxi - mi n i s 0. I n
t hi s g a me , Al e x s houl d gai n no l ess t han 0 (the maxi - mi n) , and Ber t s houl d l ose no
mor e t han 1 (t he mi ni - max) . Just wh e r e t he gai ns and l osses wi l l fal l b e t we e n t hes e
val ues wi l l d e p e n d on h o w Al e x and Ber t pl ay. T h e mi ni - max de c i s i on pr oc e dur e
Tabl e 1 2. Payoff Matrix i n the Al ex-Bert Confl i ct
Bert's Strategies _, ^
rayon
Bl B2 Ro w Mi n. Di f f er enc e
a i
-
1 3
- -
i
3 - ( - D = 4
_ A 2 1 0 0* 1 - 0 = 1
Co l u mn Max. 1* 3 2,-5
Payof f Di f f e r e nc e 2 3
dr opped. T h e st r at egi es whi c h r emai n after we have s c r e e ne d for domi na nc e are
s hown i n T a b l e 1 1 .
Tabl e 1 1 . Reduced Payoff Matri x
HI H2 H3 Ro w Mi n.
we us e d a bov e wo u l d s e l e c t pur e st rat egi es f or e a c h pa r t i c i pa nt Al t e r na t i v e A2 f or
Al e x and Al t er nat i ve Bl f or Bert . But not i ce t hat t hes e st rat egi es don' t have t he ni ce
pr oper t i es t hat t he st rat egi es c hos e n f or Gi o v a nni and Hans had. I f Al e x al ways
c hoos e s A2 , t he n Ber t i s soon goi ng t o s wi t c h f rom Bl t o B2 s o as t o l ose l ess wi t h
e a c h tri al . To k e e p Ber t f rom doi ng t hi s, Al e x s houl d s ome t i me s us e Al and sock
Ber t wi t h a l oss of 3 poi nt s. Tha t i s, Al e x s houl d us e a mi x e d st rat egy.
I n us i ng a mi x e d st rat egy, t hough, j us t h o w of t en s houl d Al e x pl ay Al and ho w
of t en s houl d he pl ay A2 ? The r e i s a f ai rl y s i mpl e pr oc e dur e he c an us e t o f i nd t he
be s t pr opor t i ons for t he var i ous st rat egi es. Fi rst , he s houl d f i nd t he magni t ude of
t he di f f er enc e i n payof f wi t hi n e a c h r ow of t he payof f mat ri x. T h e s e di f f er ences are
4 for t he first r ow, 1 for t he s e c ond, and t hei r s um i s 5. Us i ng t hes e numbe r s , Al e x
can n o w do t he f ol l owi ng cal cul at i ons :
and c o nc l ude t hat he s houl d us e St r at egy Al one-f i f t h of t he t i me and St r at egy A2
four-fi fths of t he t i me. I n t he s ame wa y , Ber t can us e t he di f f er enc es i n payof f i n t he
c ol umns t o f i nd t he pr opor t i ons i n wh i c h he s houl d mi x hi s st rat egi es. Ber t cal -
cul at es as f ol l ows:
and c onc l ude s t hat he s houl d us e Bl t hree-f i f t hs of t he t i me and B2 two-f i f ths of t he
t i me.
Ea c h pl a y e r s houl d c onc e a l hi s i nt e nde d act i on on e a c h tri al s o t hat he does n' t
f or ewar n hi s o ppo ne nt of hi s i nt e nde d mo v e . On e wa y t o do t hi s i s t o l et s ome
r andom pr oc es s l i ke t he t hr ow of a di e de t e r mi ne wha t one wi l l do next .
I f e a c h pl a y e r pl ays t he opt i mal st rat egy de f i ne d by t he me t ho d we j us t out-
l i ned, t hen t he v a l ue of t he g a me (the amount t hat Al e x c an e x pe c t t o wi n or t he
aver age pe r game ) i s e as y t o de t e r mi ne .
T h e pr obabi l i t y t hat t he payof f i s - 1 i s j us t t he pr obabi l i t y t hat Al e x pl ays Al
and Ber t pl ays B l , t hat i s, 1/5 x 3/5 = 3/25. Ma k i ng t hes e cal cul at i ons for al l t he cel l s
of t he payof f mat ri x we c an f i nd t he e x pe c t e d v a l ue of t he g a me as f ol l ows :
3 6 1 2 1 5
= - + + = = 0.60
25 25 25 25
I n thi s cas e, t he v a l ue i s 0 . 6 a v al ue , as we wo u l d e xpe c t , b e t we e n 0, t he r ow max,
and 1, t he c o l umn mi n.
An i nt er es t i ng f eat ure of t hes e st rat egi es i s t hat t he v a l ue of t he g a me wi l l
r emai n t he s ame as l ong as ei t her of t he pl ayer s hol ds t o hi s opt i mal st rat egy.
180
A GUI DE FOR THE BEWILDERED DECISION MAKER
I n t hi s and t he pr e vi ous chapt er , we ha v e de s c r i be d a numb e r of dec i s i on
pr oc e dur e s a ppl i c a bl e i n a var i et y of si t uat i ons. Fi g ur e 2, a de c i s i on t r ee, can he l p
y o u f i nd t he de c i s i on pr oc e dur e t hat i s appr opr i at e t o a s peci f i c si t uat i on. By an-
s we r i ng t he f ol l owi ng ques t i ons , y o u can wor k t hr ough t he de c i s i on t r ee:
1. I s t hi s a de c i s i on unde r cer t ai nt y?
2. Do e s i t i nv ol v e cos t l y s ear c h?
3. Is t hi s a de c i s i on unde r conf l i ct ?
4. Ca n y o u es t i mat e t he r e l e vant pr obabi l i t i es wi t h r eas onabl e ac c ur ac y?
5. Do e s t he de c i s i on i nv ol v e cat ast rophi c out c ome s ?
REFERENCES
Al per t , M. , and Rai f f a, H. A Progress Report on the Training of Probability Assess-
ors. Unp u b l i s h e d manus c r i pt , Har var d Uni ver s i t y, 1 969.
Edwa r ds , W. "Conservatism in Human Information Processing." In Formal Repre-
sentation of Human Judgment, e di t e d by B. Kl e i nmunt z . N e w Yor k: John Wi l e y
& Sons , I nc. , 1 7- 52, 1 968.
Hur wi c z , L. " Wha t Has Ha p p e n e d t o t he The o r y of Ga me s ? " American Economic
Review Supplement, 43, 398-405, 1 953.
Li nds ay, P. H. , and Nor ma n, D. L. Human Information Processing. Ne w York: Ac a-
de mi c Pr es s , Inc. , 1 972.
Mur phy , A. H. , and Wi nkl e r , R. L. " Cr e d i b l e I nt er val Te mpe r a t ur e For ecas t i ng:
Some Ex pe r i me nt a l Re s ul t s . " Monthly Weather Review, 1 02, 784- 794, 1 974.
Pet er s on, C. R. , Snapper , K.J., and Mur phy , A. H. " Cr e d i b l e I nt er val Te mpe r a t ur e
For ec as t s . " Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 53, 966-970, 1 972.
Phi l l i ps , L. D. , and Ed wa r d s , W. " Cons e r v a t i s m i n a Si mpl e Pr obabi l i t y I nf er enc e
Tas k. " Journal of Experimental Psychology, 7 2, 346- 357, 1966.
Exercises
I dent i f y opt i mal st rat egi es for e a c h pl ay e r i n t he f ol l owi ng t wo- per s on games .
N I N E
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
Shoul d s acchar i n be b a nne d ? Shoul d pol l ut i on st andards be st ri ct er? Ar e nu-
cl ear p o we r pl ant s saf e? Shoul d e v e r y o ne be vac c i nat e d agai nst me a s l e s ? Ar e aut o
seat bel t s wor t h t he cos t ? Go v e r nme nt a ge nc i e s and bus i ne s s e s are cont i nual l y
f aced wi t h que s t i ons s uc h as t hes e. I n t hi s chapt er , we wi l l de s c r i be a de c i s i on t ool
wi d e l y us e d t o he l p a ns we r s uc h ques t i ons : Cos t - Be ne f i t Anal y s i s . Unde r s t andi ng
cost - benef i t anal ys i s wi l l :
J. he l p y o u t o e v al uat e gov e r nme nt al dec i s i ons wh i c h af f ect y ou, and
2. pr ov i de y o u wi t h a de c i s i on- ma ki ng t ool whi c h y o u can us e t o ma ke bus i ne s s and
per s onal de c i s i ons .
Cos t - be ne f i t anal ys i s i s ba s e d on a v e r y s i mpl e i d e a t h e i de a t hat we s houl d
t ake an act i on onl y after we ha v e c ons i de r e d al l of its cost s and benef i t s . " Ce r t a i nl y
everyone k no ws t hat , " y o u ma y mut t er . Whi l e t he i de a i s v e r y s i mpl e, i t i s surpri s-
i ng h o w of t en p e o p l e fai l t o a ppl y it. Wh e n we b uy a n e w puppy , we may fail t o
cons i der t he we a r and t ear on t he r ug or t he cat. Wh e n a gr oc er cut s t he pr i c e
of s t r awber r i es , he ma y not c ons i de r t he pos s i bi l i t y t hat bl ue be r r y sal es wi l l be
r e duc e d as a resul t .
Suppos e t hat y o u we r e t r yi ng t o de c i de a mong s ever al al t er nat i ve act i ons, e. g. ,
to add a por c h to y our hous e , to i nsul at e it, to t ake a vac at i on i n Ar uba, or to do
not hi ng. To c onduc t a cos t - benef i t anal ys i s , y o u s houl d per f or m t he f ol l owi ng st eps:
A. For e a c h of t he al t er nat i ve act i ons,
1. i dent i f y al l t he i mpor t ant s our ces of cost s and benef i t s ;
2. est i mat e t he v a l ue s of t he cost s and benef i t s ;
3. est i mat e t he pr obabi l i t i es of obt ai ni ng t he cost s and benef i t s ; and
4. c ompar e t he e x pe c t e d val ue s of t he cost s and benef i t s .
B. Cho o s e t he act i on for wh i c h the expected value of the benefits mi nus the ex-
pected value of the costs is great est .
Ea c h of t hes e st eps has its o wn uni que pi t f al l s i nt o whi c h t he unwa r y cost - benef i t
anal yzer ma y fal l . We wi l l di s c us s t he pi t f al l s be l o w, but first we wi l l pr es ent a
hi ghl y s i mpl i f i ed e x a mpl e t o i l l ust rat e t he me c ha ni c s of cost - benef i t anal ysi s.
Suppos e t hat y o u ha v e f i nal l y f ound a pot ent i al c us t ome r for your $200 car after
mont hs and mont hs of t r yi ng. Yo u are dr i vi ng i t t o y our cus t omer ' s hous e for
i ns pect i on wh e n i t be g i ns t o ma k e a dr eadf ul n o i s e " P o c k e t a - q u e e p ! Pocket a-
q u e e p ! " At t hi s poi nt y o u are appr oac hi ng t he onl y r epai r s hop i n t o w n
183
184 The Compl et e Probl em Sol ver
" Di s ho ne s t Fr ank' s Ga r a g e and Mor t uar y. " You k no w t hat Fr ank i s a good me -
c hani c wh o c an fix t he t r oubl e. Shoul d y o u st op for r epai r s or go on? To ma k e t he
de c i s i on y o u a na l y z e t he cost s and benef i t s as f ol l ows :
Action 1: Stop at Frank's
Costs. Yo u es t i mat e t hat Fr ank i s mos t l i kel y t o c har ge y o u $50 ( probabi l i t y =
.80), but t hat t he bi l l ma y be $100 ( pr obabi l i t y = .20). T h e e x pe c t e d val ue of t he
cost s, t he n, i s
EV (costs) = (.80) ($50) + (.20) ($100)
= $40 + $20
= $60
Benefits. Yo u j u d g e t hat t her e are t hr ee pos s i bl e out c ome s of your sal es efforts:
1 . T h e per s on wi l l be s o horri f i ed by t he appe ar anc e of y our car t hat he wi l l de c i de
not t o b uy i t wi t hout e v e n l i s t eni ng t o t he e ngi ne . I n t hi s case, t he be ne f i t i s zer o.
Yo u es t i mat e t hat t he pr obabi l i t y of t hi s out c ome i s 0. 50.
2. T h e per s on wi l l be s o ent r anc ed by t he appe ar anc e of t he car t hat he wi l l b u y i t
no mat t er wha t t he e ng i ne s ounds l i ke. I n t hi s cas e, t he benef i t i s $200. Yo u
es t i mat e t hat t he pr obabi l i t y of t hi s out c ome i s 0. 10.
3. T h e pe r s on f i nds t he car ac c e pt abl e onl y i f t he e ng i ne s ounds good. I n thi s case,
t hanks t o Fr ank, t he be ne f i t i s $200. Yo u est i mat e t hat t he pr obabi l i t y of t hi s
out c ome i s 0. 40.
T h e e x pe c t e d v a l ue of t he benef i t s i s
EV ( benef i t s) = (.50) (0) + (.10) ($200) + (.40) ($200)
= $100
EV ( benef i t s) - EV (costs) = $40.
Action 2: Don't Stop at Frank's
Costs. Ze r o
Benefits. T h e benef i t s of t hi s act i on are t he s ame as t he benef i t s for Ac t i on 1,
wi t h one e xc e pt i on. I f t he b u y e r de c i de s t o l i st en t o t he e ng i ne , y o u wi l l l ose t he
sal e. I n t hi s c as e, t he benef i t s wi l l be z er o rat her t han $200.
T h e e x pe c t e d v a l ue of t he benef i t s i s
( EV) benef i t s = (.50) (0) + (.10) ($200) + (.40) (0)
= $20
EV ( benef i t s) - EV (costs) = $20.
Si nc e t he e x pe c t e d v a l ue of t he benef i t s mi nus t he cost s i s gr eat er for Ac -
t i on 1 t han Ac t i on 2, y o u de c i de t o st op for repai rs.
PROBLEMS IN FINDING ALL OF THE IMPORTANT COSTS AND BENEFITS
Some act i ons ha v e e nor mous l y wi de s pr e a d ef f ect s wh i c h are qui t e di f f i cul t t o
t rack d o wn. For e x a mpl e , bui l di ng a da m ma y ha v e ef f ect s s uc h as i mpr ov i ng f l ood
cont r ol and t r anspor t at i on, i nc r eas i ng r ecr eat i onal f aci l i t i es, and pr ov i di ng el ect r i c
p o we r and i rri gat i on. T h e s e ef f ect s s houl d r esul t i n r e duc e d cos t of p o we r and f ood
and i nc r eas ed t our i s m and i ndust r y for t he r egi on. T h e s e benef i t s wi l l l i kel y be
a c c o mpa ni e d by an i nc r eas e i n traffic, i n l a w e nf or c e me nt pr obl e ms , i n pol l ut i on,
and i n t he cos t of s umme r home s . I dent i f yi ng al l t he cost s and benef i t s i n a c ompl e x
case s uc h as t hi s ma y pr ov e v e r y di f f i cul t . Bef or e pr oc e e di ng , try t o t hi nk of al l of
t he ot her pos s i bl e cost s and benef i t s i n t hi s c as e.
Cost Benefit Anal ysi s 185
Di d y o u t hi nk of t he pot ent i al i ncr eas e i n v a l ue of l and i n areas f or mer l y subj ect
t o f l oodi ng? Di d y o u t hi nk of t he pos s i bi l i t y t hat t e l e phone s er vi c e i n t he area may
be o v e r l o a de d? Di d y o u t hi nk of fire and heal t h s e r vi c e s ?
A Case Study
Saccharin: To Ban or Not to Ban?
I n Ma r c h of 1 977, t he Co mmi s s i o ne r of t he Fo o d and Dr u g Admi ni s t r at i on
c r e at e d a mi nor publ i c upr oar wh e n he pr opos e d ba nni ng t he sal e of sacchari n. T h e
Co mmi s s i o ne r t ook t hi s act i on be c a us e he j u d g e d t hat s acchar i n pos e d a smal l but
def i ni t e heal t h hazar d for humans . He es t i mat ed t hat t he l i f et i me us e of one
s ac c har i n- s we e t e ne d soft dr i nk pe r day mi ght c aus e as ma ny as 1, 200 cases of
bl a dde r c anc er pe r y e a r i n t he Uni t e d St at es.
T h e l aw unde r wh i c h t he Co mmi s s i o ne r wa s ac t i ng i s v e r y speci f i c. T h e
Fe de r al Food, Dr ug , and Co s me t i c Ac t whi c h r egul at es f ood addi t i ves cont ai ns t he
so- cal l ed De l a n e y ant i - cancer c l aus e (21 U S C 348). Thi s c l aus e states t h a t " . . . no
addi t i ve shal l be d e e me d t o be saf e i f i t i s f ound t o i nduc e c anc e r wh e n i nges t ed
by man or ani mal "
A r ec ent l y c o mp l e t e d Ca na di a n s t udy ( 1974) pr ov i de d t he Co mmi s s i o ne r wi t h
r eas onabl y c o nv i nc i ng e v i d e nc e t hat sacchar i n doe s i nduc e c anc e r i n rats. T h e
Commi s s i one r ' s dut y wa s cl ear. He had t o ban sacchar i n. Ho we v e r , t hi s wa s not t he
who l e story. As t he Co mmi s s i o ne r sai d (Federal Register, Apr i l 1 5, 1 977) ,
Press reports of the announcement of the FDA' s intention to withdraw approval
of saccharin as an ingredient in foods and beverages have given the impression that
the Commissioner is acting reluctantly, based exclusively on the Del aney anti-
cancer clause of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Ac t . . . and, further, that the
agency' s action was triggered solely by the findings of the Canadian study. Neither
impression is accurate.
He c i t ed a n u mb e r of ot her s t udi es , i n addi t i on t o t he Ca na di a n one, whi c h had
i nde pe nde nt l y s ug g e s t e d t hat sacchar i n c a us e d cancer . I n addi t i on, he st at ed a
rat i onal e for b a nni ng e v e n mi l d c anc er - c aus i ng agent s s uc h as sacchar i n:
Although the risk from consumption of saccharin is small compared to that of
other health hazards, e.g., cigarette smoking, saccharin is only one of a potentially
large number of hazards present in our environment. The Commissioner bel i eves
that reduction of prolonged, general exposure to a number of weakl y carcinogenic
substances in our environment as they are discovered may be essential to reduce the
total incidence of cancer. (Federal Register, April 15, 1977)
T h e pr opos e d ba n r e c e i v e d a c ons i de r abl e amount of unf avor abl e c omme nt .
Mar vi n Ei s ens t adt , e x e c ut i v e pr e s i de nt of Cu mb e r l a nd Pa c ki ng Cor por at i on, t he
nat i on' s l argest pr oduc e r of l ow cal or i e s we e t e ne r s , c ha r g e d t hat t he " out r ageous
and harmf ul ac t i on" wa s ba s e d on " f l i ms y sci ent i f i c e v i d e n c e . " Publ i c opi ni on
pol l s s ho we d t hat a maj ori t y of c ons ume r s b e l i e v e d t hat t he ani mal t est s we r e ei t her
i r r el evant or not c onc l us i v e . (As we wi l l s e e , t he publ i c wa s wr o n g on bot h count s,
but not nec es s ar i l y wr o n g i n t hei r oppos i t i on t o t he ban. )
Cr i t i c i s m of t he sci ent i f i c e v i d e nc e var i ed i n sophi st i cat i on. On t he s i mpl e-
mi nde d e nd wa s t he popul ar j oke , " Wha t t he s t udi es s how i s t hat rats s houl dn' t
dri nk di et c ol a. " T h e ug l y f act i s t hat agent s t hat c aus e c anc e r i n rats are ve r y l i kel y
t o caus e i t i n humans , t oo. A mor e s ophi s t i cat ed cr i t i ci sm c o nc e r ne d t he sacchari n
dos ages i nv ol v e d i n t he st udy. T h e amount of s acchar i n t he rats we r e g i v e n wa s ,
t aki ng t hei r b o d y we i g h t i nt o account , about 1,000 t i mes gr eat er t han t he amount a
human wo u l d t ypi c al l y us e. Thi s cr i t i ci sm s e e ms i mpr e s s i ve on first hear i ng.
Ho we v e r , i t l os es mu c h of its f orce wh e n one c ons i der s t he rat i onal e of ani mal
st udi es. Fi rst , t he l i f e s pan of a rat ( t wo year s) i s mu c h short er t han t hat of a huma n
(75 years). I f we are i nt er es t ed i n l i f espan ef f ect s, t hen i t i s r e as onabl e t o us e hi gher
dos ages i n t he rat wh o i s e x po s e d over a mu c h short er t i me t han t he huma n.
Fur t her , i n a huma n popul at i on, an i nc i de nc e of one c as e of c anc e r i n 1,000 or
i n 10, 000 wo u l d be c ons i de r e d i mport ant . Ani ma l r es ear c her s t ypi c al l y c onduc t
t hei r e xpe r i me nt s wi t h onl y 50 or 100 ani mal s . I f ani mal r es ear c her s us e d a dos age
of sacchar i n wh i c h pr o duc e d onl y one case i n 1,000 or one c as e i n 10, 000, t her e i s
a ve r y good c ha nc e t hat none of t hei r one hundr e d rats wo u l d s ho w any si gns of t he
di s eas e. To ha v e a r e as onabl e c ha nc e of obs e r v i ng an i mpor t ant c anc er - pr oduc i ng
ef f ect , t he r es ear cher s mus t ei t her us e a ve r y l arge numb e r of ani mal s or i ncr ease
t he ef f ect by us i ng a hi g h dos age. T h e r es ear cher s ' de c i s i on t o us e hi gh dos ages i s
ent i r el y j ust i f i ed.
Mos t of t he cr i t i ci sm of t he F D A r ul i ng wa s di r e c t e d at t he val i di t y of t he
e v i de nc e t hat s acchar i n c a us e d cancer . Thi s cri t i ci sm appear s t o ha v e b e e n ove r l y
s ever e. Re c e nt s t udi es ha v e c onf i r med t he c onc l us i on t hat sacchar i n doe s c aus e
bl adde r cancer . Do e s i t f ol l ow t hen t hat we s houl d ban s acchar i n? Wha t do y o u
t hi nk?
We k no w t hat us i ng s acchar i n has a c o s t n a me l y an i nc r eas ed i nc i de nc e of as
muc h as 1, 200 c as es of bl a dde r c anc er a year . But wha t about t he benef i t s of
sacchar i n? Th e r e are t wo maj or us es of sacchar i n: 1 . t o he l p di abet i c s k e e p t o t hei r
sugar-f ree di et s , a nd 2 . t o he l p di et er s k e e p t hei r we i g ht do wn. We wi l l di scuss onl y
t he s ec ond benef i t .
Ex c e s s we i g h t ma y s e e m a t ri vi al heal t h pr obl e m c o mpa r e d t o cancer , but i n
thi s case, i t may not be t ri vi al at al l . Ex c e s s we i g ht has i mpor t ant i mpl i cat i ons for
heal t h and l i f e. Pe o p l e wh o are o v e r we i g ht di e y o ung e r t han ot her pe opl e . Ber nar d
Co h e n (1978) has c o mpa r e d t he benef i t s of sacchar i n i n c ont r ol l i ng we i g h t wi t h its
costs i n c aus i ng c anc er . Us i ng t he F D A dat a, C o h e n c al c ul at e d t hat due t o c anc er
ri sk, eac h soft dr i nk r e d u c e d one' s l i f e e xpe c t anc y by about ni ne s ec onds . To put
thi s i n pe r s pe c t i ve , e a c h ci gar et t e r e duc e s l i f e e x pe c t a nc y by about 1 2 mi nut es , or
about 80 t i mes as muc h. Dr i nk i ng a di et dr i nk e v e r y day ov e r a who l e l i f et i me
wo ul d r e duc e l i f e e x pe c t a nc y by about t wo days .
No w, l i f e i ns ur anc e stati sti cs s how t hat e v e r y p o u nd of e xc e s s we i g h t a per s on
carri es dec r eas es l i f e e x pe c t a nc y by 29 days . Subs t i t ut i ng one s ac c har i n- s we e t e ne d
dri nk for a s ug a r - s we e t e ne d dr i nk e v e r y day wo u l d r e duc e we i g h t e no ug h t o c aus e
a 200-day i nc r eas e i n l i f e e x p e c t a n c y 1 0 0 t i mes as l ar ge as t he t wo- day de c r e as e
due t o c anc er ri sk. Th u s , e v e n wi t hout c ons i de r i ng t he benef i t s of sugar- f ree dr i nks
for di abet i cs , i t appear s t hat t he benef i t s of sacchar i n are mu c h gr eat er t han its
cos t s . *
What can we l ear n f rom a case s uc h as t hi s? At least t wo t hi ngs.
1. A l aw, l i ke t he De l a n e y ant i - cancer c l aus e, wh i c h f oc us es nar r owl y on avoi di ng
one part i cul ar ki nd of cost , ma y be mor e harmf ul t han hel pf ul . By f ai l i ng t o l ook
at all t he cost s and benef i t s , i t ma y ki l l mor e pe o pl e t han i t s aves . Thi s poi nt
be c o me s dr amat i cal l y e v i de nt i n t he case of Vi t ami n A, a s ubs t anc e necessary t o
l i f e. Vi t ami n A has b e e n s ho wn t o ha v e mi l d c anc er - c aus i ng ef f ect s. I f we t ri ed
t o st amp out Vi t ami n A be c a us e of t hi s par t i cul ar cost , we wo u l d do vast harm.
*We may want to questi on Cohen' s analysis of the healthful effects of diet drinks. For
example, we might want proof that overwei ght peopl e actually do reduce their intake of
calories as a result of usi ng di et soft drinks. There are enough reports of peopl e who diet by
eating large quantities of di et foods in addition to their regular meals to make us question this
assumption. Whether Cohen' s analysis is accurate or not, it serves to alert us that health costs
due to excess wei ght may be consi derabl e, and should be accurately eval uated and taken into
account in making the saccharin decision.
Cost Benefit Analysis 787
T h e poi nt a ppl i e s not j us t t o l aws , l i ke t he De l a n e y c l aus e, but t o dec i s i on
pr oc e dur e s gener al l y. Wh e n e v e r we f ocus nar r owl y on av oi di ng a part i cul ar cost
and don' t t ake al l t he i mpor t ant cost s and benef i t s i nt o account , we may make
ve r y ba d dec i s i ons .
2. A s e c ond l es s on t o be de r i v e d f rom t he sacchar i n c as e i s t hat pe o pl e of t en fail t o
l ook for al l t he cost s and benef i t s . T h e pr opos e d ba n f oc us e d ent i r el y on t he
c anc e r i s s ue, as di d obj ect i ons t o t he ban. Thi s wr i t er wa s a ppa l l e d t o see hi s
f avori t e n e ws c omment at or s l ooki ng v e r y ser i ous about t he cont r over sy,
s c r unc hi ng up t hei r e y e b r o ws , s ayi ng, " We l l , j us t h o w g ood i s t he e v i de nc e that
sacchar i n c aus es c a nc e r ? " and c ompl e t e l y mi s s i ng t he poi nt t hat t her e mi ght be
cost s as we l l as benef i t s i n ba nni ng sacchari n.
De l a n e y di dn' t c ons i de r al l t he cost s and benef i t s of s acchar i n wh e n he wa s
wr i t i ng hi s l aw, t he F D A Co mmi s s i o ne r di dn' t c ons i de r t he m wh e n he pr opos e d
hi s ban, and t he publ i c di dn' t c ons i der t he m wh e n t he y c r i t i c i z ed t he ban.
Cos t - benef i t anal ys i s ma y s e e m a ve r y e l e me nt a r y and obv i ous i dea, but pe opl e
sur el y ha v e f ai l ed t o us e i t i n cas es wh e r e i t wa s appr opr i at e.
I n t he s acchar i n c as e, a ppl y i ng t he t e c hni que of cos t - benef i t anal ysi s wo u l d
have br o a de ne d pe opl e ' s pe r s pe c t i v e on t he pr obl e m by l e a di ng t he m t o s ear ch
act i vel y for cost s and benef i t s . I t wo u l d by no me a ns ha v e guar ant eed that t hey
wo u l d f i nd t he m al l , ho we v e r .
PROBLEMS IN ESTIMATING PROBABILITIES
We ha v e al r eady di s c us s e d s ome of t he pr obl e ms c a us e d wh e n pe o pl e ma ke
subj ect i ve j udg me nt s of pr obabi l i t y, as wi t h t he gambl e r ' s f al l acy ( Chapt er 8).
Me as ur i ng obj e c t i ve pr obabi l i t i es c an c aus e pr obl e ms as we l l . Thi s i s par t i cul ar l y
true wh e n we are de a l i ng wi t h n e w t ec hnol ogy. I f we wa nt e d t o me as ur e t he
pr obabi l i t y of f ai l ure of a 1970' s aut omat i c t r ansmi ssi on, for e x a mpl e , we c oul d
count t he n u mb e r of uni t s t hat f ai l ed after one year , after t wo year s , and after
t hree year s , and c o mput e t he appr opr i at e pr obabi l i t i es . For a n e w t r ansmi ssi on j us t
de v e l o pe d t hi s year , t hough, we don' t have t he dat a t o ma k e t hes e pr obabi l i t y
me as ur e me nt s . Cus t ome r s mi ght l i ke t o have t he m no w, but we s i mpl y can' t
del i ver t hem.
Wh e n nuc l e ar react ors we r e first de v e l o pe d, e ng i ne e r s wa nt e d t o k no w t he
pr obabi l i t i es t hat var i ous mat er i al s s uc h as st eel and c onc r e t e wo u l d be we a k e n e d
by i nt ens e radi at i on. Ma n y year s of e x pe r i e nc e wi t h t he n e w t e c hnol og y we r e
r equi r ed bef or e t he a ns we r s c oul d be pr ovi de d.
Ot he r cas es i n wh i c h i t i s di f f i cul t t o ge t a de qua t e pr obabi l i t y est i mat es are
si tuati ons i nv ol v i ng l ar ge ri sks wh i c h ha v e a v e r y s mal l pr obabi l i t y of occur r i ng,
such as ai r pl ane cr as hes and oi l spi l l s. Suppos e t hat y o u are c ons i de r i ng buy i ng a
hous e j ust b e l o w a n e w dam. I t i s i mpor t ant for y o u t o k no w whe t he r t he pr obabi l i t y
that t he dam wi l l br eak i n t he next 10 year s i s one i n a hundr e d, one i n t en t housand,
one i n a mi l l i on or l es s . Yo u ask an e ng i ne e r wh o says, " We l l , t hat ' s a n e w ki nd of
dam, and onl y 20 of t he m are 10 year s ol d. Si nc e none has br oke n yet , I s uppos e that
means that t he pr obabi l i t y of f ai l ure i s b e t we e n z er o and one i n 20, or f i ve pe r c e nt . "
Unf ort unat el y, t hi s i s no wh e r e near t he ac c ur ac y y o u n e e d t o ma k e your deci s i on.
A great deal of e x pe r i e nc e i s n e e d e d i n ma ki ng dec i s i ons of t hi s ki nd, and s ome-
t i mes that e x pe r i e nc e j us t i sn' t avai l abl e.
I n- eval uat i ng nuc l e ar powe r , a maj or cost t o be c ons i de r e d i s t he possi bi l i t y of
a di sast rous nuc l e ar expl os i on. To eval uat e t hi s cost , anal yst s mus t try t o i dent i f y al l
of t he way s i n whi c h an ac c i de nt c oul d occur . To do t hi s, t he y may start wi t h t he
st andard oper at i ng pr oc e dur e of t he pl ant and ask wha t can go wr o ng i n t he pr oce-
dur e. For e x a mpl e , t he y may ask, " Wha t wo u l d ha ppe n i f t he react or heat cont rol
p u mp s houl d f ai l ?" or, " Wha t wo u l d ha ppe n i f t he react or heat - cont r ol p u mp and
t he react or t emper at ur e- war ni ng s ys t em s houl d bot h f ai l ? " By wor ki ng t hr ough t he
pot ent i al f ai l ures and c ombi nat i ons of f ai l ures i n t he st andard oper at i on of t he pl ant ,
t he anal yst s can arri ve at an est i mat e of t he l i ke l i hood of an ac c i dent . Thi s i s a
di f f i cul t task e v e n i f we as s ume t hat t he operat ors are f ol l owi ng st andard pr oc e-
dur es . I f t hey are not , t he di f f i cul t i es are e nor mous l y i nc r eas ed. For e x a mpl e ,
vi ol at i on of st andard pr oc e dur e wa s an i mpor t ant f actor i n t he fire at t he Br own' s
Fer r y Nuc l e ar P o we r Pl ant . Thi s fire nar r owl y mi s s e d c a us i ng " ma n y casual t i es and
radi at i on c ont ami nat i on of a l ar ge part of Al a ba ma and T e n n e s s e e " ( Come y , 1975) .
Te c hni c i a ns i n t he pl ant had b e e n s ear c hi ng for ai r l eaks. On e i nge ni ous t ec hni c i an
was us i ng a c andl e t o ai d t he sear ch, gr ossl y vi ol at i ng st andar d oper at i ng pr oc e dur e ,
but i mpr ovi ng t he ef f i c i enc y of t he sear ch. T h e c andl e c a us e d t he f i re, and t he fi re,
t oget her wi t h a f e w ot her mal f unct i ons , al most c a us e d a maj or nuc l e ar di sast er.
Cl e a r l y vi ol at i ons of st andard pr oc e dur e can l e ad t o ac c i dent s . Unf or t unat el y,
it' s ve r y har d for an anal ys t t o pr edi c t al l of t he i nge ni ous wa y s i n whi c h pe o pl e wi l l
vi ol at e st andard pr oc e dur e .
Ta k i ng t he s acchar i n and t he Br own' s Fe r r y cas es t oget her , we can s ee t hat
cost - benef i t anal ysi s can he l p i n c ompl e x dec i s i ons , but we s houl d r e c ogni z e
cl ear l y t hat i t i s s ubj ect to error. Just be c a us e s ome one has done a cost - benef i t
anal ysi s doe s n' t guar ant ee that t hey have done i t ri ght .
THE PROBLEM OF COMPARI NG DIFFERENT SORTS OF VALUES
On e of t he dr awbac ks of cost - benef i t anal ysi s i s that i t i s s omet i mes di f f i cul t t o
c ompar e val ue s of di f f erent sorts. For ma ny t hi ngs, mo ne y pr ovi des a c onve ni e nt
scal e for c ompar i s on. Si nc e i t i s our me di um of e xc hange , ma ny t hi ngs are as s i gned
mo ne y val ues or pr i ces. The s e pr i ces gi ve us a wa y of de c i di ng h o w many " X' s " are
wor t h a " Y" . Mo ne y val ues al l ow us t o " c ompa r e appl es and or a ng e s " i n e ve r yday
c omme r c e .
The r e i s still a " c ompa r i ng appl es and or a nge s " pr obl e m, ho we v e r , be c a us e
t her e are ma ny i mpor t ant t hi ngs for whi c h we do not or di nar i l y set a pr i ce. For
exampl e, a n e w dam may pr ovi de f aci l i t i es for wat er sports as one of its benef i t s.
Ho w do we c ompar e t he pl eas ur e pe opl e get from wat e r sports wi t h t he dol l ar cost
of t he dam? A n e w s ubwa y s ys t em may pr ovi de a qui et er , l ess c r o wde d ri de t han
t he ol d. Ho w do we c ompar e t he i ncr eas ed comf ort of t he ri ders wi t h t he dol l ar cost
of t he n e w s ys t em? An i nt ens i ve care uni t may save s ome l i ves whi c h ot her wi s e
mi ght have b e e n l ost. Ho w do we c ompar e t he val ue of t hes e l i ves wi t h t he cost of
t he i nt ens i ve care uni t ?
In thi s l ast case, s ome pe opl e wi l l state fl atl y t hat y ou can' t put a val ue on a
l i f e c e r t a i nl y not a mo ne y val ue. The r e are t wo t hi ngs s uc h a st at ement mi ght
mean. Fi rst , i t mi ght me a n t hat t her e real l y i s no wa y t o c ompar e t he val ue of a l i f e
t o t he val ue of, say, t en dol l ars. By thi s i nt erpret at i on, i f we ask t he ques t i on, " I s
Smi t h wor t h t en dol l ar s ? " t he ans we r mus t be , " I don' t k no w and t her e i s no wa y
t o de c i de . " I t hi nk t hi s a ns we r i s unac c ept abl e. Mos t of us wo u l d agr ee r eadi l y that
a life i s wor t h muc h mor e t han t en dol l ars, e v e n t hough we al l k no w a f e w e xc e p-
ti ons.
T h e ot her i nt erpret at i on i s that a l i fe i s wor t h mor e t han any amount of mo ne y
we can i magi ne. Whi l e t hi s i nt erpret at i on has a cert ai n at t r act i veness, i t i s sur el y
fal se. Cons i de r t he f ol l owi ng di f f i cul t pr obl e m. Suppos e t hat t he l i f e of a chi l d
de pe nde d on a ve r y e x pe ns i v e ki dne y mac hi ne so e x pe ns i v e , i n fact, that i t
r equi r ed al l of t he nat i on' s r esour ces t o k e e p i t r unni ng. Gi v e n a vot e, wo ul d y ou
vot e t o de v ot e al l of t he nat i on' s r esour ces t o s avi ng thi s chi l d' s l i f e? I f y o u di d, y o u
woul d be vot i ng for i mpove r i s hme nt , suf f eri ng, and deat h for a great ma ny ot her
peopl e. Mo ne y runs hospi t al s, mo ne y gr ows cr ops, mo ne y pays for i mmuni z at i ons
and prenat al care. Mo n e y r epr esent s r esour ces and t he ug l y f act i s that r esour ces are
l i mi t ed. I f we s pe nd a mi l l i on dol l ars t o save Smi t h, we may not have t he mi l l i on
dol l ars that wo u l d be r equi r ed t o save Ci nc i nnat i .
What can we c onc l ude f rom t he ki dne y- mac hi ne e x a mpl e ? We are f or c ed t o t he
di ffi cul t c onc l us i on t hat we can' t sensibly s pe nd unl i mi t ed amount s t o save a parti c-
ul ar per son' s l i f e. To do s o wo u l d cost ma ny mor e l i ves t han i t wo ul d save. We l l ,
t hen, how muc h s houl d we s pe nd t o save a l i f e? We k no w we s houl d s pe nd mor e
than t en dol l ars and we k no w t hat we s houl dn' t s pe nd s o muc h t hat we cause t he
deat hs of lots of ot her pe opl e , but ho w muc h should we s pe nd?
The r e i s no cl ear a ns we r t o thi s ques t i on. None t he l e s s , t o r eveal t he nat ure of
t he pr obl em a l i ttl e mor e cl earl y, l et ' s e xami ne t he ki dne y - mac hi ne pr obl e m i n a
smal l er c o nt e x t t he cont ext of a s i ngl e f ami l y. I magi ne a f ami l y wi t h f i ve chi l dr en.
One of t he f i ve wi l l di e i f he does n' t have t he ki dne y mac hi ne . Shoul d t he parent s
provi de t he mone y for t he mac hi ne i f i t means that
1. Th e ot her four wi l l di e ? Ye s ( ) No ( )
or
2. T h e ot her f our wi l l l i ve i n abj ect pover t y wi t h great l y de c r e as e d l i fe expec-
t anci es? Ye s ( ) No ( )
or
3. T h e ot her f our wi l l l i ve i n abj ect pover t y wi t h a st rong pr obabi l i t y t hat t he y
wi l l b e c o me c r i mi nal s , per haps mur der er s ? Ye s ( ) No ( )
or
4. T h e ot her f our, wh o are bl i nd, wi l l ha v e t o g i v e up r emedi al s ur ger y?
Ye s ( ) No ( )
or
5. T h e ot her f our wi l l have t o dr op out of hi gh s chool be f or e gr aduat i on t o t ake
me ni a l j obs ? Ye s ( ) No ( )
or
6. T h e ot her f our, t hough pr omi s i ng st udent s, wi l l ha v e no c ha nc e t o go t o
c o l l e g e ? Ye s ( ) No ( )
or
7. T h e f ami l y wo n' t be abl e to b u y a pi ano or a car? Ye s ( ) No ( )
The s e are hor r i bl e ques t i ons t o ask. We ask t he m onl y be c a us e t he y r eveal s ome-
t hi ng of t he nat ur e of a v e r y i mpor t ant pr obl e m. Mos t pe o pl e wi l l a ns we r " n o " t o
t he first que s t i on and " y e s " t o t he l ast, but ma y di f f er on t hei r ans wer s t o t he
ques t i ons i n b e t we e n .
I n or der t o a ns we r t hes e ques t i ons we have t o c ompa r e huma n val ues of ve r y
di f f erent sorts. We ha v e t o c ompar e cer t ai n deat h wi t h a pr obabi l i t y of deat h, or
wi t h l i f e- l ong suf f eri ng, or wi t h l ost oppor t uni t i es . Pe o pl e di f f er f rom one anot her
i n t hes e de c i s i ons , pe r haps b e c a us e t hei r val ues di f f er, or pe r haps t hey aren' t qui t e
sure at any g i v e n mo me n t wha t t hei r val ue s are i n t hes e di f f i cul t compar i s ons .
Lo w- i nc o me p e o p l e ma y pl ac e mor e i mpor t anc e on c ur i ng bl i ndne s s and l ess on
gr aduat i ng f rom hi g h s chool t han do hi gh- i nc ome pe o pl e . Pe o p l e s e e m t o pl ac e a
hi ghe r val ue on l i ves i f t he i ndi vi dual s are i dent i f i ed t han i f t he y are anonymous .
As Ze c hha us e r ( 1 975) poi nt s out , we are ve r y unl i ke l y t o s e nd ast ronaut s on one-
wa y tri ps i nt o s pac e e v e n t hough i t wo u l d great l y c ut cost s. We are muc h mor e
l i kel y t o r e duc e e x pe ns e s for hi g hwa y saf et y wh e r e t he vi c t i ms , whi l e mor e numer -
ous , di e i n c omf or t i ng anonymi t y.
Wha t c an we c onc l ude about c ompar i ng val ue s s uc h as l i f e, happi nes s , and
mo n e y ? Suc h c ompar i s ons are v e r y di f f i cul t . Pe o pl e wi l l not agr ee wi t h e a c h ot her
and t he y wi l l not agr ee wi t h t he ms e l v e s at di f f erent t i mes and i n di f f erent si tua-
t i ons. Ho we v e r , we c annot avoi d s uch c ompar i s ons . We ma k e t he m f r equent l y
whe t he r we do s o i n f ul l c ons c i ous nes s or not. Go v e r nme nt s do s o wh e n t hey
es t abl i s h pur e f ood and dr ug l aws , or set ai rl i ne saf et y st andards. I ndi vi dual s ma ke
t hes e c ompar i s ons wh e n t he y de c i de whe t he r or not t o r i de a mot or c yc l e or t o ent er
a hi gh- ri sk pr of es s i on s uc h as pol i c e wor k. Cos t - benef i t anal ysi s won' t make t he
di f f i cul t y of t he s e v a l ue c ompar i s ons go away. Ho we v e r , t he f r amewor k of cost-
benef i t anal ysi s c an he l p us as i ndi vi dual s and as a s oci et y t o be cl ear er and mor e
syst emat i c about wha t we are doi ng wh e n we ma k e t hes e c ompar i s ons .
Deal i ng wi t h Val ue Compari sons i n Practi ce
Th e r e are s ome si t uat i ons i n whi c h we can get ar ound di f f i cul t val ue compari -
sons by us i ng a do mi na nc e r ul e. For e x a mpl e , c ons i der a di abet es det ect i on pro-
gram. T h e cost s of s uc h a pr ogr am i nc l ude f i nanci al c o s t s s u c h as wa g e s for
phys i c i ans and t e c hni c i ans , t es t i ng mat er i al s, carf are and wa g e s l ost by t he per s ons
t e s t e d a n d huma n comf or t c o s t s s u c h as t he a nnoy a nc e of wai t i ng i n t he of f i ce.
Si mi l arl y, t he benef i t s of t he pr ogr am i nc l ude t he f i nanci al benef i t s of avoi di ng t he
e x pe ns e s of hos pi t al i z at i on and l ost wa g e s , and t he huma n comf or t benef i t s of
avoi di ng bl i ndne s s and pai n. We can appl y t he domi na nc e r ul e i n t hi s de c i s i on as
f ol l ows : I f t he benef i t s are gr eat er t han t he cost s i n one of t he t wo areas and no
wor s e t han t he cost s i n t he ot her, t he n t he pr ogr am s houl d be under t aken. Thus , i f
t he f i nanci al cost s and benef i t s we r e t he s ame, but t he huma n comf or t benef i t s we r e
great er t han t he cost s, t he n t he total benef i t s wo u l d be gr eat er t han t he cost s.
Suppos e i t cost s as mu c h i n dol l ars t o i mmuni z e pe o pl e agai nst a di s eas e as i t
does t o t reat t he m for t he di s eas e. Si nc e i t i s bet t er i n huma n t er ms for pe opl e t o
avoi d t he di s e as e t han t o ha v e it, t he total benef i t s of i mmuni z at i on wo u l d e x c e e d
its cost s.
The Di rect Appr oach t o Val ue Compari son
Anot her wa y t o deal wi t h val ue c ompar i s on i s t he di r ec t appr oac h. We can ask
pe opl e t o t el l us h o w mu c h t he y wo u l d be wi l l i ng t o pay for t he pl e as ur e of goi ng
f i shi ng, or for r el i ef f rom hayf ever , or for a l ess ri sky j ob. Co ns i de r t he f ol l owi ng
deci s i on. Suppo s e y o u are of f er ed t wo s umme r j obs as ba nk guar d at di f f erent
br anches of t he s ame bank. On e j ob i n t he s ubur ban br anc h wh e r e t her e i s z er o ri sk
t o your l i f e pays $5, 000 for t he s umme r . T h e ot her j ob i s i n a bus y ur ban ar ea and
i nvol ves a one pe r c e nt ri sk t o y our l i f e ov e r t he s umme r . Ho w mu c h wo u l d t he j ob
i n t he ur ban br a nc h ha v e t o pay t o be as at t ract i ve as t he s ubur ban j ob? Wo u l d an
extra $100 be e n o u g h ? Ho w about an ext ra mi l l i on? Whi l e me a s ur e me nt s s uch as
t hese are not v e r y pr e c i s e , t he y do gi v e us s ome i de a of h o w t he i ndi vi dual c om-
pares ve r y di f f er ent v a l ue s , and al l ow us t o pr oc e e d wi t h a cos t - benef i t anal ysi s.
( For a mor e de t a i l e d di s c us s i on of t hes e me t hods , s ee Ze c hha us e r , 1975. )
PROBLEMS IN COMPARI NG COSTS AND BENEFITS RECEIVED AT DIFFERENT TIMES
I n doi ng a cos t - benef i t anal ys i s , we f r equent l y have t o c ompa r e cost s and
benef i t s r e c e i v e d at di f f er ent t i mes . For e x a mpl e , s uppos e t hat on January 1 of year
zer o t he Jones Co mp a n y i nves t s $3, 200 i n a ma c hi ne wh i c h ear ns $1, 000 a year ,
payabl e on Januar y 1 of year s 1, 2, 3, and 4, and t hen i t we ar s out . At first gl anc e i t
appear s t hat t he benef i t s o ut we i g h t he cost s by $800 ( Ta bl e 1) , but this isn't right!
T h e benef i t s r e c e i v e d i n year s 2, 3, and 4 are not di r ect l y c ompa r a bl e t o t he cost s
i n year 1 . To unde r s t and wh y t he y are not di r ect l y c ompa r a bl e and h o w t hey can
be c ompa r e d, we wi l l ha v e t o di s cus s i nt er est and its r el at i on t o t he pr es ent and
future v a l ue of mo ne y .
Comput i ng Interest
Suppos e t hat y o u put $100 i n t he ba nk at 6% i nt er est and t hen e v e r y year y ou
r e c e i ve a c he c k for $6. 00. Thi s i s c al l e d " s i mp l e " i nt erest . If y o u i nves t P dol l ars at
i % i nt er est for n year s , t he t ot al amount of mo n e y y o u wi l l ha v e after n year s , F, i s .
Fut ur e v a l ue = Pr i nc i pal + ( Pri nci pal x i nt er es t x n u mb e r of years)
InterestSimple and Compound
Thi s may al so be wr i t t en as
F = P( l + i n)
I f we i nve s t $100 at 6% s i mpl e i nt erest , i n 1 0 year s we wi l l have
F = P + Pi n
= $100 + $100 x (.06) x 10
= $100 + $60
= $1 60
Suppo s e on t he ot her ha nd y o u i nves t $100 i n t he bank at 6% i nt er est , but rather
t han r e c e i v i ng an i nt er es t c he c k eac h year , y o u have t he i nt er est a dde d t o t he
amount al r eady i n t he bank. Thus , t he i nt er est wi l l al so c ol l e c t i nt erest . Thi s i s
c al l e d " c o mp o u n d " i nt er est . If y o u i nves t P dol l ars at i % i nt er es t for n year s , t he
total a mount of mo n e y y o u wi l l have after n year s , F, at c o mp o und i nt er est i s
2. F = P ( l + i )
n
I f we i nve s t $100 at 6% c o mp o und i nt erest , i n 1 0 year s we wi l l have
F = P ( l + i )
n
= 100 (1 + . 06 )
1 0
= $1 79. 08
Ta b l e 2 c ompa r e s t he val ue of F for s i mpl e and c o mp o und i nt er est over 20
year s. Cl e a r l y c o mp o u nd i nt er est has an i nc r eas i ng advant age ov e r s i mpl e i nt erest
as t i me pas s es . We wi l l be c onc e r ne d pr i mar i l y wi t h c o mp o und i nt er est i n t hi s
di s c us s i on.
Tabl e 2
wor k ba c kwa r ds , t hat i s, we are g i v e n t he f ut ure v a l ue and we wa nt t o c omput e t he
pr es ent v a l ue f rom it. Equa t i o n 3 s hows h o w t o do t hi s. I t i s de r i v e d di r ect l y f rom
Equa t i on 2.
No w ba c k t o t he Jones Co mp a ny . Us i ng Equa t i on 3 and as s umi ng an i nt erest
rate of 1 0%, we can c omput e t he pr e s e nt v a l ue (that i s, t he v a l ue on Jan. 1 , year 0)
of $1, 000 r e c e i v e d on Jan. 1, i n year s 1, 2, 3, and 4. A t hous and dol l ars r e c e i v e d on
Jan. 1 , y e a r 1 , i s t he f ut ure v a l ue of t he u n k n o wn pr e s e nt v a l ue , P l 9 and after one
year ' s i nt erest . Th u s
SUMMARY
Cos t - be ne f i t anal ys i s i s a de c i s i on pr oc e dur e i n wh i c h we c ompa r e t he ex-
pe c t e d cost s and benef i t s of al t er nat i ve act i ons. I t i nv ol v e s t he f ol l owi ng st eps:
A. For e a c h of t he al t er nat i ve act i ons:
1. i dent i f y al l t he i mpor t ant s our ces of cost s and benef i t s ;
2. es t i mat e t he v a l ue s of t he cost s and benef i t s ;
3. es t i mat e t he pr obabi l i t i es of obt ai ni ng t he cost s and benef i t s ; and
4. c ompa r e t he e x pe c t e d val ue s of t he cost s and benef i t s .
B. Ch o o s e t he act i on for whi c h the expected value of the benefits mi nus the
expected value of the costs is great est .
Wh e n we do cos t - benef i t anal ys i s , we ma y e nc ount e r a numb e r of pract i cal
pr obl e ms . T h e s e i nc l ude :
1. di f f i cul t i es i n i dent i f yi ng all of t he i mpor t ant cost s and benef i t s ;
2. di f f i cul t i es i n es t i mat i ng pr obabi l i t i es ( es pec i al l y wh e n de al i ng wi t h
n e w t e c hnol ogy ) ; and
3. di f f i cul t i es i n c ompa r i ng val ues of di f f er ent sorts, e. g. , t he val ue of a j ob
oppor t uni t y ver s us t he v a l ue of a l i f e.
T h e s um of t he s e v a l ue s i s $3, 169. 77, wh i c h i s l ess t han $3, 200! Th u s , t he present
value of t he ear ni ngs t o be r e c e i v e d ov e r f our year s i s act ual l y l ess t han t he pr es ent
val ue of t he i nv e s t me nt i n t he ma c hi ne . T h e Jones Co mp a n y wo u l d do bet t er t o
i nves t t hei r mo n e y at 1 0 pe r c e nt and f orget about b u y i n g t he ma c hi ne .
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Problem #1
In an ar t i cl e in t he Journal of the American Medical Association, Ki r kl and
( 1 977) , que s t i one d t he us ef ul nes s of s c r e e ni ng pat i ent s ov e r 65 for syphi l i s. He
sai d:
The economics of hospital care have now made the scrutiny of all expenses, no
matter how small, necessary.
At Emory University Hospital, screening for syphilis has had the sanctity of
tradition and official requirements. At the time of this study, an 'admissions package'
given to each new patient by the admissions office included a requisition for an
automated reagin test (ART) [a test for syphilis].
Ki r kl and r e v i e we d t he f ol ders of 300 pat i ent s 65 or ol der , and f ound t hat onl y
one c as e of s yphi l i s had b e e n de t e c t e d and t reat ed. T h e pat i ent wa s a 71 - year - ol d
wo ma n admi t t ed t o t he hospi t al wi t h ser i ous heart t r oubl e. He c ont i nue d:
Therefore, at $3.50 per ART, a minimum of $1,050 was spent to detect and treat that
one patient. It is highly questionable whether or not that treatment will have any
effect on her longevity or wel l -bei ng; she probably just got upset at being told what
it was for.
It therefore seemed wasteful to continue routine screening in this age group,
and such screening was discontinued at this hospital as of January, 1975. It seems
improbable that this move will constitute a major public health hazard or will
substantially affect the health of the individual patients.
Wha t cost s a nd benef i t s we r e c ons i de r e d i n t hi s c as e?
Problem # 2
Suppo s e t hat y o u put $500 i n t he ba nk at 6% simple i nt erest . Ho w muc h wi l l
y ou ha v e i n 1 0 ye ar s ? Ho w mu c h wi l l y o u ha v e i f t he i nt er es t i s c o mpo und?
Problem #3
Wha t wo u l d t he a ns we r s be i n pr obl e m #2 i f t he i nt er est rate we r e 9%?
Problem #4
Ho w mu c h mo n e y wo u l d y o u ha v e t o ha v e put i n t he ba nk 1 0 year s ago t o ha v e
$1, 000 n o w? As s u me 8% c o mp o u nd i nt erest .
Problem #5
As s umi ng a 1 0 % i nt er est rate, wha t i s t he f ut ure val ue 5 year s f rom no w of
$1, 000 i nv e s t e d t oday ? Wha t i s t he f ut ure v a l ue 5 year s f rom n o w of a $1, 000
i nv e s t me nt i f we i nves t $500 of i t t oday and $500 a year f rom t oday?
Problem #6
Yo ur c o mp a ny has an oppor t uni t y t o b u y a dupl i c at i ng ma c hi ne t hat wi l l l ast
t hr ough 5 year s of us e . I t cost s $20, 000 and wi l l br i ng i n $5, 000 i n bus i ne s s pa y a bl e
at t he e nd of e a c h year . Ta k i ng t he cost s and benef i t s i nto ac c ount , wha t i s t he
pr es ent v a l ue of t hi s pur c ha s e ? As s u me a 1 0 % i nt er est rate.
Problem #7Hayes' Disease
You are a publ i c heal t h of f i cer i n y our l ast year at y our pr es ent post . As y our
final act, y o u mus t de c i de whe t he r or not t o l aunc h a one- s hot (i . e. , one t i me)
i mmuni z at i on c a mpa i g n agai ns t a n e wl y di s c ov e r e d respi rat ory af f l i ct i on c al l e d
" Ha y e s ' Di s e a s e . " Ha y e s ' Di s e a s e i s unc omf or t abl e but ge ne r al l y not ser i ous. Its
mos t us ual s y mpt oms are f ever and c oug hi ng and t empor ar y he ar i ng l os s , al t hough
s ome t i me s mor e s er i ous c ompl i c at i ons occur. Ho we v e r , i t i s e xt r e me l y cont agi ous.
I n an e p i d e mi c year , es s ent i al l y e v e r y s us c ept i bl e pe r s on wi l l cont r act it. Ep i d e m-
i cs are b e l i e v e d t o oc c ur e v e r y 5 year s . Si nc e t he di s e as e has onl y r ec ent l y b e e n
r e c og ni z e d, y o u don' t k n o w wh e n t he l ast e pi de mi c i n y our r e gi on occur r ed.
To ma k e y our de c i s i on, y ou a s s e mbl e t he f ol l owi ng facts c onc e r ni ng cost s and
benef i t s of t he pr ogr am.
Costs
v a c c i ne $3/pati ent ( as s ume t hat i t i s 1 00% ef f ect i ve)
of f i ce cost s $4/pati ent
adver t i s i ng for c a mpa i g n $l /pat i ent
Benefits
T h e benef i t s of t he pr ogr am are c al c ul at ed f rom t he cost s wh i c h pat i ent s wo u l d
have i nc ur r ed i f t he y had cont r act ed t he di s eas e. T h e s e cost s are as f ol l ows :
6 5 % o f p a t i e n t s n o e x pe ns e
2 5 % o n e $1 5 of f i ce vi si t
5% cont ract pne umo ni a ; of t hes e, 1/20 r equi r e $500 hos pi t al i zat i on, 19/20 r equi r e
2 of f i ce vi si t s @ $1 5 and $5 me di c a t i on
5% cont r act oti ti s (ear t r oubl e) r equi r i ng 2 of f i ce vi si t s @ $1 5 and $5 me di c at i on
Si nc e y o u don' t k n o w wh e n t he next e pi de mi c wi l l occur , t hes e benef i t s ma y be
r e al i z e d t hi s y e a r or i n any of t he f our f ol l owi ng year s. For pur pos e s of c omput at i on,
y o u a s s ume t hat 2 0 % of t he benef i t s wi l l be r e al i z e d t hi s year and 2 0 % i n e a c h of
t he f our f ol l owi ng year s . Yo u as s ume an i nt er est rate of 1 0 % t o f i nd t he pr es ent
v a l ue of t he f ut ure benef i t s .
Do a cos t - benef i t anal ysi s on t he basi s of t hes e f i gur es t o de c i de whe t he r or not
y o u s houl d l aunc h t hi s c ampai gn.
REFERENCES
Co h e n , B. L. " Re l a t i v e Ri sks of Sacchar i n and Cal or i e I ng e s t i on. " Science, 199(3),
983, 1 978.
Co me y , D. D. " Ho w We Al mos t Los t Al a ba ma . " Chicago Tribune, Aug us t 3 1 , 1 9 7 5 .
Federal Register, 42( 73) , 19996-20006, 1 977.
Ki r kl and, J. Journal of the American Medical Association, 238(5), 399, 1 977.
Toxicity and Carcinogenicity Study of Orthotoluenesulfonamide and Saccharin,
Pr oj ect E405/405D, De pa r t me nt of He a l t h and Publ i c We l f ar e of t he Canadi an
Go v e r nme nt , Fe br ua r y , 1 974.
Ze c kha us e r , R. " Pr o c e dur e s for Va l ui ng L i v e s . " Public Policy, 23, 419- 464, 1 975.
TEN.
COGNI TI VE PROCESSES IN
CREATIVE ACTS
I n t he next t wo c hapt er s , we wi l l appr oac h cr eat i vi t y f rom t wo ve r y di f f erent
poi nt s of v i e w. I n t hi s chapt er , we wi l l def i ne cr eat i vi t y and di s c us s f our of t he
c ogni t i ve pr oc e s s e s unde r l y i ng cr eat i ve act s: pr o bl e m f i ndi ng, i de a gener at i on,
pl anni ng, and pr epar at i on. I n addi t i on, we wi l l de s c r i be s ome pr oc e dur e s whi c h
can i nc r eas e y our pr o bl e m f i ndi ng and i dea gener at i on ski l l s. I n t he next chapt er ,
we wi l l di s c us s t he soci al condi t i ons of c r e a t i v i t y t ha t i s, we wi l l de s c r i be h o w
soci et y t reat s p e o p l e di f f er ent l y ac c or di ng t o t hei r sex, r el i gi on, and race, and h o w
thi s di f f er enc e i n t r eat ment e nc our age s or di s c our ages c r eat i ve act i vi t y.
T h e mai n poi nt t hat we wa nt t o ma ke i n bot h of t he s e chapt er s i s t hat y o u can
exer c i s e s ome cont rol ov e r t he c ogni t i ve pr oc es s es and t he soci al condi t i ons whi c h
i nf l uenc e y our c r eat i ve abi l i t i es. To t hi s ext ent , y o u c an i nc r eas e y our c hanc e s of
b e c o mi ng a c r eat i ve pe r s on.
WHAT IS A CREATIVE ACT?
Cr e a t i v e act s c o me i n a gr eat var i et y of f orms. A cr eat i ve act ma y be qui t e
ordi nary and i nc o ns e q u e nt i a l f o r e x a mpl e , i t mi g ht be s ome t hi ng as s i mpl e as
maki ng up a b e dt i me st ory t o t el l our c h i l d r e n o r i t ma y be wor l d s h a k i n g a s wa s
Gal i l eo' s i nv e nt i on of t he s c i e nc e of phy s i c s . A c r eat i ve act ma y i nv ol v e year s of
c onc ent r at ed wo r k c o n s i d e r t he de c a de s Da r wi n de v o t e d t o d e v e l o p i ng t he evi -
de nc e for t he t heor y of e v o l u t i o n o r i t may be b r i e f c o n d e n s e d i nt o a s udde n
fl ash of i n s i g h t t h e sort of i ns i ght t hat dr ove Ar c hi me de s na k e d f rom hi s bat h
shout i ng, " Eu r e k a ! "
Wha t i s t her e about t hes e v e r y di f f erent acts t hat l eads us t o cal l t he m al l
" c r e a t i v e " ? Ty pi c a l l y , we a ppl y f ai rl y st r i ngent cri t eri a i n j udg i ng creat i vi t y. I n
most cas es , we r equi r e an act t o pass t hr ee t est s bef or e we cal l i t cr eat i ve. Fi rst , we
mus t b e l i e v e t hat t he act i s original. Se c ond, we mus t b e l i e v e t hat i t i s valuable.
And t hi rd, i t mus t s ug g e s t t o us t hat t he per s on wh o pe r f or me d t he act has speci al
ment al abilities. For e x a mpl e , wh e n we s ee wha t t he pe r s on has done , we ask
our s el ves , " Ho w di d s he e v e r t hi nk of t hat ? " or, " Ho w di d he ha v e t he pat i enc e t o
wor k al l t hat o ut ? "
Let ' s e x a mi ne t he s e condi t i ons i n order.
Ori gi nal i ty
We c er t ai nl y wo ul dn' t j udg e a pai nt er cr eat i ve wh o s i mpl y c opi e d t he pi ct ur es
of ot her pai nt er s . To be j u d g e d c r eat i ve, pai nt ers mus t us e t hei r o wn r esour ces t o
s hape t he pai nt i ng. T h e y mus t pai nt t hei r own pi c t ur es .
We don' t me a n t houg h t hat e v e r y t hi ng i n a c r eat i ve wo r k mus t be ori gi nal .
Pai nt er s, wr i t er s , and i nvent or s r out i nel y us e i deas bo r r o we d f rom ot hers.
Ho we v e r , t he c r eat i ve pe r s on c ombi ne s or i nt erpret s t he s e bo r r o we d i deas i n wa y s
t hat are or i gi nal . Re na i s s a nc e artists v e r y f r equent l y pa i nt e d t he Ma do nna and
Chi l d, but e a c h gr eat arti st pr e s e nt e d t he t he me i n an i ndi vi dual wa y .
Some t i me s a pe r s on wi l l do s ome t hi ng ori gi nal whi c h i s not ne w. For e x a mpl e ,
a sci ent i st ma y ma k e a di s c over y, qui t e i nde pe nde nt of ot her pe o pl e , onl y t o f i nd
l at er t hat t he di s c ov e r y has b e e n ma de s ever al t i mes bef or e. I n our s oc i et y ne wne s s
i s i mport ant . We are v e r y caref ul t o gi v e speci al cr edi t t o t he pe r s on wh o i s first t o
i nve nt s ome t hi ng. St i l l , we at t ri but e cr eat i vi t y t o t he sci ent i st a bov e on t he gr ounds
of or i gi nal i t y, e v e n t houg h t he di s c ov e r y i s not ne w.
Val ue
E v e n i f an act i s or i gi nal , we won' t c ons i der i t c r eat i ve unl es s we al so j udg e i t
t o be v al uabl e . Suppos e , for e x a mpl e , y ou we r e t o t urn al l t he f urni t ure i n y our
hous e ups i de d o wn. Tha t wo u l d be or i gi nal , but i t wo u l d har dl y be val uabl e. Your
f ri ends wo u l d not ask admi r i ngl y, " Ho w di d y o u t hi nk of t ha t ? " Rat her , t hey wo u l d
ask, " Wh y di d y o u t hi nk of t hat ? " and wor r y a bi t about y our ment al heal t h.
Judgi ng whe t he r s ome t hi ng i s val uabl e or not i s t ri cky. Per f ect l y r eas onabl e
pe o pl e ma y di s agr e e wi t h e a c h ot her about t he v al ue , say, of c ont e mpor ar y mus i c .
Fur t her , opi ni ons c ha ng e ov e r t i me. I n t he 1860' s, bot h t he cri t i cs and t he publ i c
mu c h pr ef er r ed t he pai nt er s of t he Fr e nc h Ac a d e my t o t he I mpr es s i oni s t s . No w
bot h cri t i cal and popul ar j u d g me nt i s r ever s ed. To d a y t he wor k of I mpr es s i oni s t s
s uc h as Re noi r , De g a s , and Mo ne t i s mu c h bet t er k n o wn t han t hat of Fr e nc h
Ac a d e my pai nt er s s uc h as Gr e u z e or Ge r o me .
I f j udg me nt s of v a l ue can c ha ng e wi t h t i me, t hen j udg me nt s of cr eat i vi t y c an
c ha ng e , t oo. An act wh i c h i s j u d g e d cr eat i ve by one gener at i on ma y not s e e m s o t o
t he next .
Abilities
Ou r fi nal c ondi t i on for j udg i ng an act c r eat i ve i s t hat i t mus t s ugges t t hat t he
per s on wh o pe r f or me d t he act has s peci al ment al abi l i t i es. I ma g i ne t he f ol l owi ng
s c e ne : A hous e pa i nt e r i s r e t ouc hi ng t he c e i l i ng i n a mu s e u m gal l er y. Just as he i s
about t o f i ni sh, hi s f oot sl i ps. He knoc ks ov e r t he l adder , s pl at t er i ng pai nt ever y-
wh e r e and doe s a do ub l e f l i p i nt o a pot t ed pal m. He r egai ns c ons c i ous ne s s s ever al
hour s l ater, j us t i n t i me t o hear me mb e r s of t he mu s e u m s el ec t i on c ommi t t e e
s ayi ng, " Br i l l i ant ! ! " " A wo r k of g e ni us ! " " Wha t f r e e dom of mo v e me n t ! " Pe e r i ng
t hr ough t he pa l m f ronds, he s ees t hat t hey are r ef er r i ng t o t he af t ermat h of hi s
ac c i de nt on t he wal l .
No w, whi l e t he hous e pai nt e r pr oduc e d s ome t hi ng ori gi nal and val uabl e, we
can' t cal l hi s act cr eat i ve. Fa l l i ng off t he l adder does n' t i n any wa y caus e us t o
admi r e t he hous e pai nt e r ' s ment al abi l i t i es. I t onl y s ugges t s t hat he may have a
t e nde nc y t owar d c l ums i ne s s .
Yo u mi g ht be i nc l i ne d t o say t hat t he hous epai nt er ' s act wa s n' t cr eat i ve b e c a us e
i t wa s uni nt ent i onal . Yo u s houl d not i c e, t hough, t hat s ome v e r y cr eat i ve acts are
uni nt ent i onal . For e x a mpl e , Be c que r e l ' s di s c ove r y of r adi oact i vi t y wa s uni nt en-
t i onal . He had no i de a t hat ur ani um ore wo u l d f og a phot ogr aphi c f i l m. We admi r e
Cogni ti ve Processes in Creati ve Acts 799
Be c q ue r e l for ma k i ng t he di s c ove r y be c a us e , whi l e i t wa s uni nt ent i onal , he had t he
wi t t o r e c og ni z e its s i gni f i cance.
CREATIVITY AND I Q
I f c r eat i ve acts r equi r e s peci al ment al abi l i t i es, we mi ght e x pe c t t hat cr eat i ve
p e o p l e ha v e e s pe c i a l l y hi g h I Q' s . Whi l e cr eat i ve pe o pl e do ha v e hi gher t han aver-
age I Q' s , t he r el at i on b e t we e n cr eat i vi t y and I Q i s c ompl e x . T h e s i mpl es t wa y t o
s umma r i z e i t i s t o say t hat pe o pl e wi t h b e l o w aver age I Q' s t e nd not t o be cr eat i ve.
Ho we v e r , i f we l ook j us t at pe o pl e a bov e a cert ai n I Q l e v e l , s uc h as 120, t hen t her e
i s v e r y l i ttl e r el at i on b e t we e n cr eat i vi t y and I Q. It i s as i f t her e i s a cer t ai n mi ni mum
I Q r e qui r e d for cr eat i vi t y, after wh i c h I Q does n' t mat t er.
An al t er nat i ve v i e w ( see Ha y e s , 1978) i s t hat I Q has not hi ng t o do wi t h cr eat i ve
abi l i t y, and t hat t he r eas on pe o pl e wi t h l o w I Q' s are not c r eat i vel y pr oduc t i v e i s that
t hey aren' t g i v e n t he oppor t uni t y. I Q doe s pr edi c t h o w we l l a per s on wi l l do i n
school . Pe o pl e wh o do poor l y i n s chool ma y ha v e di f f i cul t y get t i ng i nt o good
school s and get t i ng g ood j obs i n whi c h t her e i s a c ha nc e t o be cr eat i ve. Thus , our
soci et y ma y act ual l y prevent pe o pl e wi t h l ow I Q' s f rom b e i ng cr eat i ve.
T h e i mpor t ant poi nt about cr eat i vi t y and I Q t hat y o u s houl d under s t and i s t hi s:
You s houl dn' t g i v e up on y our s e l f as a cr eat i ve per s on j us t b e c a us e y our I Q i s not
out s t andi ng. For e x a mpl e , t he I Q' s of s uc h f amous pe o pl e as Co pe r ni c us , Re m-
br andt , and Far aday ha v e b e e n es t i mat ed at 1 1 0 or l es s !
CREATIVITY AND ILL-DEFINED PROBLEMS
I n di s c us s i ng t he nat ur e of a cr eat i ve act , we wi l l f ol l ow t he l ead of Ne we l l ,
Shaw, and Si mon ( 1964) . T h e s e aut hors pr opos e d t hat a c r eat i ve act i s a speci al ki nd
of pr obl e m s ol vi ng, t hat i t i s t he act of s ol vi ng an i l l - def i ned pr obl e m.
I n Cha pt e r 1 , we de f i ne d i l l - def i ned pr obl e ms as ones wh i c h r equi r e pr obl e m
sol ver s t o c ont r i but e t o t he def i ni t i on of t he pr obl e m f rom t hei r own r es our ces . To
s ol ve an i l l - def i ned pr obl e m, y o u ma y be r e qui r e d ei t her t o ma k e dec i s i ons ba s e d
on your o wn k n o wl e d g e and val ue s ( gap- f i l l i ng dec i s i ons ) or t o di s c ove r n e w infor-
mat i on t hr ough y our o wn act i ve expl or at i on of t he pr o bl e m ( j umpi ng i n), or bot h.
Your sol ut i ons t o i l l - def i ned pr obl e ms are ve r y mu c h your sol ut i ons. T h e y
de pe nd on y our k n o wl e d g e and y our val ue s . Ot he r pe o pl e wo u l d al mos t cer t ai nl y
have ar r i ved at di f f er ent sol ut i ons be c a us e t hei r k n o wl e d g e and val ue s di f f er from
yours. I t i s j us t be c a us e we put our o wn k no wl e d g e and val ue s i nt o t he sol ut i on of
i l l - def i ned pr obl e ms t hat i t i s pos s i bl e t o s ol ve t he m cr eat i vel y. I t i s by dr a wi ng on
pri vat e r e s o ur c e s di f f e r e nt i n e a c h per s on and l ar gel y hi dde n f rom t he out si de
v i e we r t h a t we are a bl e t o pr oduc e sol ut i ons wh i c h da z z l e and ast ound.
COGNITIVE PROCESSES UNDERLYING CREATIVE ACTS
Cr e at i v e acts d e p e n d on a gr eat ma ny of our c ogni t i ve pr oc es s es wor ki ng
t oget her i n h a r mo n y p r o c e s s e s of r epr es ent at i on, s ear ch, me mor y , and deci s i on
maki ng. We wi l l f ocus on j us t f our of t hes e pr oc es s es whi c h are e s pe c i al l y i mport ant
for creat i vi t y: pr o b l e m f i ndi ng, i de a gener at i on, pl anni ng, and pr epar at i on.
Probl em Finding
Ma ny pr obl e ms c o me t o us wi t h neat l abel s whi c h say i n ef f ect , " So l v e me. I' m
a pr obl e m! " Pr obl e ms i n e xams , I Q t est s, and puz z l e books are l i ke that. Wh e n we
open an e xam bookl et , we are l i kel y t o f i nd l abel s s uc h as " Que s t i o n # 1 " or
" Pr o bl e m 3 . " Whe t he r we can s ol ve t he pr obl e ms or not , we have no t r oubl e
f i ndi ng t hem.
S o me pr obl e ms ar en' t as neat l y l abe l e d, t hough. Th e r e i s a s peci al cl ass of
i l l - def i ned pr obl e ms i n wh i c h wha t we ha v e t o c ont r i but e t o t he def i ni t i on of t he
pr obl e m i s t he di s c ov e r y t hat t her e i s a pr obl e m.
He r e i s an unc ompl i c a t e d e x a mpl e i n whi c h I di s c ov e r e d a pr obl e m: Ov e r t he
year s , I ha v e s e a r c he d t hr ough t he t heat er page s of t he ne ws p a p e r hundr e ds of
t i mes t o f i nd wh a t wa s pl a y i ng at my l ocal t heat er. On t he ave r age , t he sear ch
i nv o l v e d e x a mi ni ng about hal f of t he ads bef or e f i ndi ng t he one I wa nt e d. Whi l e
t hi s wa s a mi nor a nnoy a nc e , unt i l r ec ent l y I hadn' t s e e n i t as a p r o b l e mt h a t i s,
as a di f f i cul t y for wh i c h one c oul d f i nd a s ens i bl e sol ut i on. Wh e n I di d s e e i t as a
p r o b l e mw h e n I f i nal l y sai d t o mys el f , " S o me t hi ng c oul d be do ne about t h a t " i t
wa s e as y e n o u g h t o t hi nk of s ol ut i ons , e. g. , s t andar di ze t he pos i t i ons of t he ads or
al phabe t i z e t he m. Fi ndi ng t hi s pr obl e m wa s a great deal mor e di f f i cul t t han f i ndi ng
me t hods for its sol ut i on.
PROBLEM FINDING AND CREATIVITY
T h e pr oc es s of p r o b l e m f i ndi ng pl ays a ve r y i mpor t ant rol e bot h i n arti sti c and
i n sci ent i f i c cr eat i vi t y. For e x a mpl e , i n t he ear l y 1900' s, a gr oup of Ame r i c a n artists
c al l e d t he " a s hc a n s c ho o l " di s c ov e r e d es t het i c val ue s i n t he e v e r y da y appe ar anc e
of t he c i t y p e o p l e s ho ppi ng or c r os s i ng at an i nt er s ect i on. T h e y t ook i t as t hei r
pr obl e m t o c apt ur e t he s e val ue s i n t hei r pai nt i ngs . No one t ol d t he m t o do t hi s. I n
fact, a hor r i f i ed arti sti c e s t abl i s hme nt t ol d t he m not to. T h e y had t o di s c over t hei r
arti sti c pr o bl e m for t he ms e l v e s .
Pr o bl e m f i ndi ng i s i mpor t ant i n sci ent i f i c di s c ove r y as we l l . Ei ns t e i n and
I nf el d (1938) c omme nt :
Gal i l eo formulated the probl em of determi ni ng the vel oci ty of light, but did not
solve it. The formulation of a probl em is often more essential than its solution, whi ch
may be merel y a matter of mathematical or experimental skill. To raise new ques-
tions, new possibil ities, to regard ol d problems from a new angl e, requires creative
imagination and marks real advance in sci ence. (p. 95)
He r e are t hr ee cas es i n poi nt .
Case 1
I n t he he y da y of t he t e l e gr aph, hundr e ds of operat ors l i s t e ne d t o t he dot s and
das hes of t he Mor s e t i cker and t r ans cr i bed t he m i nt o wor ds on paper . Wh e n t he
c onne c t i on wa s bad, t he me s s a ge s we r e har d t o hear. Mos t s i mpl y s hr ug g e d t hei r
s houl der s and di d t he be s t t he y c oul d i n a di f f i cul t si t uat i on. Edi s o n di s t i ngui s he d
hi ms e l f f rom t he ot her s by s e e i ng t he di f f i cul t y as a pr o bl e m t o be s ol ved. He
s ol v e d i t by c ons t r uc t i ng a de v i c e whi c h wo u l d r ec or d t he dot s and das hes as vi s i bl e
mar ks on a r ot at i ng di sk. Wh e n t he de v i c e wa s c o mpl e t e , h o we v e r , ot hers di dn' t
nec es s ar i l y s e e i t as t he sol ut i on t o a pr obl e m. Edi s on' s e mpl o y e r s , for e xampl e ,
t hought t hat r e a di ng f rom a di sk rat her t han l i s t eni ng t o t he t i cker wa s a c ompl e t e
was t e of t i me.
T h e pat t er n of e v e nt s t hat l e d t o Edi s on' s i nvent i on has b e e n r e pe at e d i n a
numb e r of sci ent i f i c di s c ov e r i e s . Wha t ma ny had obs e r v e d and di s mi s s e d as a tri vi al
a nnoy a nc e , one pe r s on r e c o g ni z e d as an i mpor t ant pr obl e m t o be s ol ve d.
Case 2
As ma ny bact er i ol ogi s t s do, Al e x a nde r Fl e mi ng wa s g r o wi ng c ol oni es of bac t e-
ri a on st eri l e agar pl at es . An ac c i dent , s uc h as mus t ha v e h a p p e ne d t hous ands of
t i mes i n ot her l abor at or i es, c ont ami nat ed s ome of t he pl at es wi t h dust . T h e bact er i a
F l e mi n g wa s t r yi ng t o gr ow di e d i n t he ne i g hbor hood of t he dus t s pe c ks . Rat her
t han t hr owi ng t he pl at es out as " s po i l e d, " F l e mi n g s aw t hat t he y pos e d an interest^
i ng p r o b l e m" Wh y di d t he bact er i a d i e ? " T h e a ns we r wa s t hat t he dus t c ont ai ned
t he mo l d wh i c h pr oduc e s P e n i c i l l i n a s ubs t ance wh o s e e xi s t e nc e wa s unk no wn
at t hat t i me. Th u s a maj or me di c al di s c ov e r y d e p e n d e d on s ome one s e e i ng a
pr o bl e m i n s ome s poi l e d agar pl at es .
Case 3
As a part of a s t udy of di ges t i on, t he phys i ol ogi s t , I van Pavl ov, i nves t i gat ed t he
sal i vary ref l ex i n dogs . Do g s sal i vat e aut omat i cal l y wh e n f ood i s put i nt o t hei r
mout hs . T h e e x pe r i me nt s we n t we l l at first, but t hen t o Pavl ov' s sur pr i se, t he dogs
b e g a n t o sal i vat e bef or e t he y had any f ood i n t hei r mout hs at al l . He f ound t hat t hey
wo u l d sal i vat e at t he si ght or s ound of t he f ood di s hes or t o any ot her si gnal t hat had
f r equent l y b e e n as s oci at ed wi t h f eedi ng. T h e s e de v e l o pme nt s s er i ous l y c ompl i -
c at ed Pavl ov' s e x pe r i me nt s . But , rat her t han s e e i ng t he m s i mpl y as an annoy anc e ,
as mos t wo u l d ha v e do ne , he s aw t hat t hey r e v e a l e d an i mpor t ant p r o b l e m" Wh a t
wa s t he nat ur e of t he s e ant i ci pat or y r e s po ns e s ? " Pa v l ov r e c e i v e d s t e m wa r ni ng
f rom hi s c ol l e a g ue s t hat he wo u l d be r i ski ng hi s v e r y pr omi s i ng c ar eer i n phys i ol -
ogy i f he pur s ue d t hes e " uns c i e nt i f i c " ps yc hol ogi c al i nt erest s. For t unat el y, Pavl ov
had t he c our age t o i gnor e t hes e war ni ngs and t o c ont i nue t o wo r k on t he pr obl e m
he had di s c ov e r e d. Thi s wo r k on c ondi t i one d r ef l exes e a r ne d hi m t he No be l pr i z e.
I MPROVI NG YOUR PROBLEM-FINDING SKILLS
T h e t hr ee pr oc e dur e s we are about t o de s c r i be are not l i ke l y t o ear n y o u a
No be l pr i z e, but t he y can he l p t o ma k e y o u a bet t er pr o bl e m f i nder. T h e first i s
i nt e nde d as an ai d t o as pi r i ng i nvent or s . T h e s e c ond and t hi rd are critical thinking
t e c hni que s , t hat i s, t e c hni que s for f i ndi ng f l aws i n ar gument s . Cr i t i cal t hi nki ng
ski l l s are i mpor t ant for cr eat i vi t y b e c a us e de t e c t i ng a f l aw i n an a c c e pt e d t heor y can
be a v e r y powe r f ul s our ce of i nspi rat i on for cr eat i ng a n e w t heor y. Cr i t i cal t hi nki ng
ski l l s are al so v e r y usef ul i n s uc h munda ne act i vi t i es as de f e ndi ng our s el ves agai nst
pol i t i ci ans and e nc y c l o pe di a s al e s me n.
Bug Listing
Bu g l i st i ng i s a t e c hni que t hat Ada ms ( 1974) r e c o mme nds t o he l p i nvent or s f i nd
pr omi s i ng pr obl e ms t o wor k on. T h e bas i c i de a i s t hat t hi ngs wh i c h bot her y ou,
such as i c e c r e am c one s t hat dr i p or t ypewr i t er s t hat wo n' t s pel l , pr obabl y bot her
ot her pe o pl e as we l l . An i nve nt i on c r e at e d t o s ol ve one of y our bug s c oul d have a
wi d e mar ket .
A b u g l i st i s s i mpl y a l i st of t hi ngs t hat bot her y ou. To ma k e a b u g l i st, y ou
s houl d carry a not e book wi t h y o u s o t hat y o u can r ec or d t he bug s wh e n y o u not i ce
t hem. ( Bugs are of t en so c o mmo npl a c e t hat t hey are har d t o r e me mbe r . ) He r e i s a
r epr es ent at i ve b u g l i st:
1. r e me mbe r i ng t o mai l l et t ers
2. t aki ng out t he t rash
3. f ast eni ng s eat bel t s
4. put t i ng t ops ba c k on t oot hpast e, ke t c hup, et c.
5. c ha ng i ng t he cat box
6. wa s hi ng di s hes
7. ma ki ng my b e d
8. k e e p i ng c l e an and di rt y l aundr y separat e
9. t ur ni ng off l i ght s
10. s l i di ng doors t hat sti ck
1 1 . c upboa r d door s t hat don' t c l os e
12. c r umbs on t he t abl e, count er , and f l oor
1 3. cat fur
14. p e o p l e wi t h di rt y ears
1 5. ha ng i ng up my coat
16. rest aurant s wi t h di m l i ght s t hat ma k e y our e y e s go b u g g y
1 7. pl a c e s t hat are c r o wd e d
18. s t upi d t eac her s
1 9. p e o p l e i n pant s t hat are t oo t i ght
20. short s t hat are t oo short
21 . me n wh o we a r t hei r shi rts ope n t o t he navel
22. mus i c i n s uper mar ket s
23. f i ght s ongs
24. s t upi d r adi o a nd t e l e vi s i on per s onal i t i es
25. sour mi l k
26. s unbur n
27. t angl e d hai r
28. razor s t ubbl e
29. di rt y gl as s es
30. di rt unde r cont act l e ns e s
31 . f ood t hat dr i ps on y our cl ot hes (l i ke tacos)
32. ge t t i ng t eet h c l e a ne d at t he dent i s t
33. dark nai l pol i s h
34. di rt y f i nger nai l s
35. r egi s t er i ng for cl as s es
36. dr y i ng my hai r
37. humi d days
38. c r y i ng ba bi e s
39. dr i ppi ng f aucet s
40. pas s por t phot os
Ea c h of t he s e bug s can be v i e we d as a pr obl e m t o be s ol ved, and as t he
pot ent i al s our ce of a usef ul i nvent i on.
SEARCHING FOR COUNTEREXAMPLES
The Empl oyment Argument
Thi s a r g ume nt i s not v e r y popul ar t oday, but i t wa s wi d e l y a c c e pt e d i n t he ' 50' s.
" Wh e n a c o mpa ny i s f i l l i ng a j ob, i t s houl d hi r e me n i n pr e f e r e nc e t o wo me n ,
b e c a us e me n ha v e t o s uppor t f ami l i e s . "
A c o mmo n wa y for pe o pl e t o t est an ar gume nt i s t o sear ch for pos i t i ve i nst ances
( Was on, 1 9 6 8) t ha t i s, t o t hi nk of a c as e i n wh i c h t he a r g ume nt s e e ms ri ght . For
e x a mpl e , a pe r s on mi g ht say, " We l l , i f a ma n i s s uppor t i ng a wi f e and t hr ee ki ds , i t
i s mor e i mpor t ant for hi m t o have a j o b t han for a s i ngl e wo ma n t o ha v e o ne . "
Ha v i ng f ound a pos i t i ve i ns t ance, ma ny st op t hei r s ear ch and a c c e pt t he ar gument .
Whi l e s e ar c hi ng for pos i t i ve i nst ances i s a ve r y c o mmo n t e c hni que , i t i s, unf or-
t unat el y, a v e r y uncr i t i cal one . It i gnor es cases i n whi c h t he a r g ume nt i s f al se. A
mu c h mor e cri t i cal appr oac h t o t es t i ng ar gument s i s one wi d e l y us e d by phi l os -
opher s a nd ma t he ma t i c i a ns s e a r c hi ng for c ount e r e xampl e s . A c ount e r e xampl e i s
a c as e i n wh i c h t he a r g ume nt we are t es t i ng i s f al se. A pe r s on s ear c hi ng for a
c ount e r e x a mpl e t o t he e mp l o y me nt ar gume nt mi ght say, " We l l , a wo ma n wh o i s
s uppor t i ng he r c r i ppl e d hus ba nd cer t ai nl y de s e r v e s t o ha v e a j ob as muc h as a
ba c he l or d o e s . " Cl e a r l y , we are mu c h l ess l i kel y t o a c c e pt a f aul t y ar gume nt i f we
t est i t by s e ar c hi ng for c ount e r e xampl e s . He r e i s anot her cas e.
The Pre-cogni ti on Argument
S o me c l ai m t hat cer t ai n pe o pl e can have accur at e k n o wl e d g e of event s bef or e
t he y ha ppe n.
Pos i t i ve I ns t anc e: " Ye a h ! Las t we e k my aunt dr e amt t hat s ome t hi ng good wa s
goi ng t o ha ppe n t o me and t oday I wo n t he l ot t er y! "
Co unt e r e x a mpl e : " Sur e , but t wo we e k s ago, she dr e amt t hat your t urt l e was
goi ng t o have p up p i e s . "
Se a r c hi ng for c ount e r e x a mpl e s i s onl y one of ma ny t e c hni que s whi c h phi l os-
opher s have d e v e l o p e d for de t e c t i ng pr obl e ms i n ar gument s . An i nt er est i ng and
hi ghl y r eadabl e i nt r oduct i on t o s ome of t hes e t e c hni que s i s pr ov i de d by Thoma s
Sc hwar t z in hi s book, The Art of Logical Reasoning (1980).
SEARCHING FOR ALTERNATIVE INTERPRETATIONS
Our s e c ond t e c hni que for f i ndi ng pr obl e ms i n ar gume nt s bor r ows f rom t he
cri t i cal spi ri t of sci ent i f i c r es ear ch. I t i s t he t e c hni que of s e ar c hi ng for al t er nat i ve
i nt er pr et at i ons.
Case 1: Singing the Baby to Flab
Suppos e t hat s o me o ne t r i ed t o c onv i nc e us that s i ngi ng t o c hi l dr e n make s t hem
gr ow. T h e y t el l us t hat t he y ha v e s ys t emat i cal l y obs e r v e d 20 ki nder gar t en c hi l dr en
who s e mot her s s i ng t o t he m e v e r y day, and t hat over a pe r i od of e i ght mont hs , t hes e
c hi l dr e n g a i ne d an a v e r a ge of f our pounds .
For t unat el y, t he mai n pr obl e m i n t hi s ar gume nt i s eas y t o f i nd. We k no w that
ki nder gar t en c hi l dr e n are g r owi ng r api dl y, s o we can r eadi l y f or mul at e an al t ernat e
i nt er pr et at i on of t he dat a. Tho s e c hi l dr e n mi ght ha v e g a i ne d f our pounds e v e n i f
t he y hadn' t b e e n s ung t o.
T h e pr o bl e m wi t h t he ar gume nt i s t hat t he obs er vat i ons do not i nc l ude control
me a s ur e me nt s , for e x a mpl e , we i g h t gai ns of 20 ki nder gar t en c hi l dr e n who s e
mot her s do not s i ng t o t he m. We wo u l d be mu c h mor e i nc l i ne d t o ac c ept t he
ar gume nt i f t he c hi l dr e n wh o we r e s ung t o gai ne d more t han t he c hi l dr e n wh o we r e
not.
Case 2: Hypnotizing Chickens
Onc e , i n my wa s t e d y out h, I ran across an ent er pr i s i ng s al es man wh o wa s s el l i ng
a de v i c e for hy pnot i z i ng c hi c ke ns . I nde e d, t he de v i c e wa s i mpr e s s i v e . T h e sal es-
man he l d a c hi c k e n d o wn on a t abl e and pl a c e d t he de v i c e , wh i c h emi t t ed a soft
buz z i ng , next t o t he c hi c ke n' s head. Wh e n he r e l e as e d t he c hi c ke n, i t j us t l ay t her e
and st ared as i f al l act i ve c hi c ke n t hought s had b e e n c ha s e d f rom its head. I t was
c ompl e t e l y gor ke d out . Th e n , after 30 s e c onds of c ompl e t e i mmobi l i t y, i t s udde nl y
s c r ambl ed up and ran off.
On e can eas i l y under s t and t hat ma ny pe opl e , per haps e v e n t he s al es man hi m-
self, wo u l d be c o nv i nc e d of t he ef f i cacy of t he de v i c e s ome t o t he ext ent of buy i ng
one.
I was n' t c onv i nc e d, ho we v e r , be c a us e I had an al t er nat i ve i nt erpret at i on of t he
demons t r at i on. For no g ood r eas on, at t hat t i me, I wa s t he l ocal exper t on " ani mal
hy pnos i s . " I k n e w t hat var i ous a n i ma l s g u i n e a pi gs , s nakes , al l i gat ors, and yes ,
c hi c kens , c oul d be " h y p n o t i z e d " s i mpl y by put t i ng t he m i nt o cert ai n post ur es. I n
part i cul ar, a c hi c k e n can be hy pnot i z e d by hol di ng its he a d d o wn on a t abl e for a
f ew s ec onds . My al t er nat i ve i nt er pr et at i on wa s t hat wha t we we r e s e e i ng was j ust
anot her c as e of ani mal hypnos i s and that a cont rol obs er vat i on i n whi c h t he
c hi c ken' s he a d wa s he l d on t he t abl e without t he b u z z e r wo u l d ha v e pr oduc e d t he
same resul t , i . e. , a gor ked- out c hi c ke n.
Case I Revisited: Singing to Children
Suppo s e t hat t he per s on s t udy i ng s i ngi ng and we i g h t gai n had ma de t he cont rol
obs er vat i on we s ug g e s t e d abov e . Suppos e that t he y had f ound t hat c hi l dr e n
of mot her s wh o s i ng t o t he m gai n t wo pounds mor e on t he a v e r a ge t han c hi l dr en of
mot her s wh o do not . Wo u l d we t hen be f or ced t o a c c e pt t he a r g ume nt t hat s i ngi ng
t o c hi l dr e n ma ke s t he m g r o w? T h e a ns we r i s " No . " T h e a r g ume nt sti l l has pr ob-
l e ms as we can s e e by c ons i de r i ng s ome al t er nat i ve i nt er pr et at i ons. Per haps t her e
we r e ot her di f f er enc es b e t we e n t he t wo gr oups of mot her s . Pe r ha ps i f we i nter-
v i e we d t he mot her s , t he non- s i nger s wo u l d say, " S i n g t o my ki d? He l l , I don' t e v e n
f e e d ' m! " , whi l e t he si nger s i nsi st t hat a heal t hy c hi l d ne e ds at l east ni ne meal s a
day.
Cl e ar l y , s e ar c hi ng for al t er nat e i nt erpret at i ons can he l p us t o f i nd pr obl e ms i n
pe r s uas i v e ar gume nt s .
Summary
In s ome cas es f i ndi ng a pr o bl e m i s t he mos t di f f i cul t part of s ol vi ng it. Ma ny
di s c over i es d e p e n d on f i ndi ng a pr obl e m t hat ot hers ha v e i gnor ed. We f r equent l y
hear pe r s ua s i v e ar gume nt s t hat have pr obl e ms hi dde n i n t he m. I f we fail t o f i nd t he
pr obl e ms , we are l i ke l y t o be pe r s ua de d of s ome t hi ng t hat i s f al se. By as ki ng t he
f ol l owi ng t hr ee ques t i ons , we c an i ncr eas e our c ha nc e s of f i ndi ng s uch pr obl ems :
1. Ca n I t hi nk of a c ount e r e x a mpl e ?
2. Ha v e appr opr i at e cont r ol me a s ur e me nt s b e e n ma d e ?
3. Ar e t her e al t er nat e i nt er pr et at i ons of t he r es ul t ?
Exercises
1 . De s i g n a s t udy of s i ngi ng and we i g h t gai n t hat wo u l d avoi d t he pr obl e ms we
f ound a bov e .
2. Wha t pr o bl e ms c an y o u f i nd i n t he f ol l owi ng ar gume nt s ?
a. Ni ne out of 10 doct or s i nt e r v i e we d sai d t hat t he y pr e s c r i be our br and i n
pr e f e r e nc e t o al l ot hers. Bu y our br and.
b. I n cl i ni cal t est s, e i g ht out of 1 0 f el t r el i ef wi t hi n 1 0 mi nut e s after us i ng
our br and. Bu y it.
c . Fo ur l e a di ng pai n r el i ever s cont ai n 650 mg of aspi r i n pe r t abl et , but our
br a nd cont ai ns 800 mg. Bu y our br and.
GENERATING IDEAS
Ma n y of t he di f f i cul t i es i n cr eat i ve pr obl e m s ol v i ng ari se not i n f i ndi ng t he
pr obl e m but i n ge ne r a t i ng i deas for a sol ut i on. Wh e n f aced wi t h a pr o bl e m l i ke T h e
Los e r ( Re me mb e r t he ma n wh o a l wa y s l ost at g a mbl i ng b e c a us e t he f or t une t el l er
cast a s pel l on hi m?) , s ome pe o pl e are t erri f i c at t hi nki ng up i deas and s ome are
t er r i bl e. Thi s s ec t i on i s de s i g ne d for pe o pl e wh o ha v e t r oubl e ge ne r at i ng i deas .
Ma n y me t hods ha v e b e e n pr opos e d t o he l p ma k e i deas f l ow. We wi l l di scuss
j us t t wo :
1. br ai ns t or mi ng, and
2. f i ndi ng anal ogi e s .
Brai nstormi ng
Br ai ns t or mi ng i s a t e c hni que d e v e l o p e d by Al e x Os bor n, an e x e c ut i v e of a
maj or N e w Yor k adver t i s i ng f i rm, and first de s c r i be d i n hi s book, Your Creative
Power (1948). I t i s de s i g ne d t o i nc r eas e t he f l ow of i deas i n smal l gr oup me e t i ng s .
T h e mos t i mpor t ant pr i nc i pl e unde r l y i ng br ai ns t or mi ng i s t hat t he pr oces s of gen-
er at i ng i deas i s c ompl e t e l y s epar at ed f rom t he pr oc es s of eval uat i ng t hem.
Br ai ns t or mi ng s es s i ons t ake pl ac e i n t wo p h a s e s a n idea generation phas e and an
idea evaluation phas e . Dur i ng t he i de a gener at i on pha s e , al l j udg i ng and cri t i ci sm
of t he pr o duc e d i deas i s e l i mi n a t e d o r rat her d e f e r r e d u n t i l t he eval uat i on
phas e .
I n mos t c onf e r e nc e s , s uc h as t own me e t i ng s and i nf ormal pl a nni ng sessi ons,
t he st andar d f ormat i s de bat e , t hat i s, pr oposal and cr i t i ci sm. Thi s f ormat i s not
not abl y s ucces s f ul i n pr oduc i ng n e w i deas. Ty pi c a l l y i n s uc h s es s i ons , eac h n e w
i de a i s me t wi t h a we l t e r of cri t i ci sm. Br ai ns t or mi ng i s qui t e di f f er ent f rom most
me e t i ng si t uat i ons.
Dur i ng t he i de a gener at i on phas e:
1. Al l cr i t i ci sm of i deas i s wi t hhe l d unt i l t he eval uat i on phas e .
2. Wi l d or e v e n si l l y i deas are we l c o me d .
3. Quant i t y of i deas i s e nc our a ge d.
4. Par t i ci pant s are e nc our a g e d t o c o mbi ne or i mpr ov e on i deas al r eady sug-
ge s t e d.
5. T h e g r oup act s as a wh o l e , not br e aki ng up i nt o s ever al smal l gr oups .
6. On e pe r s on acts as a secr et ar y t o r ec or d t he l i st of i deas .
A br ai ns t or mi ng gr oup ne e ds a l eader wh o wi l l enf or c e t he r ul es . T h e first and
mos t i mpor t ant t ask of t he l e ade r i s t o be sure t hat cr i t i ci sm i s wi t hhe l d. The r e
s e e ms t o be a st rong t e nde nc y i n ma ny pe o pl e t o r e s pond t o an i de a by s ayi ng, " Oh ,
t hat wo n' t wo r k b e c a us e " An i de a wh i c h i s pr opos e d as a j oke ma y not be usef ul
i n i t sel f as a sol ut i on of t he pr obl e m, and y e t i t may ai d t he sol ut i on by s ugges t i ng
a n e w di me ns i o n of t he pr obl e m or by o pe ni ng a n e w l i ne of i nqui r y.
I n a t ypi cal br ai ns t or mi ng sessi on, t he me mb e r s of t he gr oup are a l l o we d t o
pr opos e i deas wh e n e v e r t he y pl e as e . T h e pos s i bi l i t y exi st s i n t hi s si t uat i on t hat one
or a f e w of t he gr oup me mb e r s wi l l domi nat e t he s es s i on, wi t h t he r esul t t hat ot hers
ma y be pr e v e nt e d f rom c ont r i but i ng al l t hat t hey c oul d. To e l i mi nat e t hi s possi bi l -
i ty, Bouc ha r d ( 1972) has modi f i e d t he t ypi cal br ai ns t or mi ng pr oc e dur e by addi ng a
s e q ue nc i ng r ul e i n wh i c h t he me mb e r s of t he gr oup t ake t urns i n of f er i ng i deas. He
r epor t ed t hat gr oups us i ng t he s e que nc i ng rul e pr o duc e d mor e i deas t han gr oups
t hat di d not us e it.
I f t he gr oup be g i ns t o run out of i deas dur i ng t he i dea- gener at i ng phas e , i t
s ome t i me s he l ps t o r e v i e w t he l i st of i deas al r eady s ugge s t e d. Wh e n t he gr oup' s
i deas have b e e n e xhaus t e d, i t i s t i me t o mo v e t o t he eval uat i on phas e.
I n t he eval uat i on pha s e , e a c h i de a i s r e v i e we d cri t i cal l y t o de t e r mi ne i f i t i s i n
fact a pract i cal s ol ut i on. A l i st of t he i deas t hat t he gr oup c ons i der s mos t pract i cal
i s t hen s ubmi t t e d as t he gr oup' s pr obl e m- s ol v i ng r e c omme nda t i ons .
Os bor n f eel s t hat br ai ns t or mi ng i s hel pf ul i n pr oduc i ng n e w i deas for t wo
reasons. Fi rst , t he r e duc t i on i n cr i t i ci sm dur i ng t he gener at i on phas e al l ows i deas
t o be bor n and d e v e l o p e d t hat ot he r wi s e mi ght ne v e r ha v e b e e n s ugges t ed, or
mi ght have b e e n r ej ec t ed bef or e t hey had r e c e i v e d suf f i ci ent pos i t i ve consi der a-
ti on. Se c ond, Os bor n f eel s t hat br ai ns t or mi ng s es s i ons pr omot e a ki nd of soci al
cont agi on i n wh i c h one per s on' s i dea i nspi r es a bet t er i de a i n a n o t h e r a n i dea that
t he s e c ond per s on wo ul dn' t have t hought of ot he r wi s e .
St udi es r e v i e we d by St ei n ( 1975) i ndi cat e t hat gr oups us i ng t he br ai ns t or mi ng
t e c hni que do pr oduc e mor e i deas t han gr oups t hat gener at e and eval uat e i deas
s i mul t aneous l y. Fur t her , mos t of t hes e st udi es al so s how t hat t he br ai nst or mi ng
groups pr oduc e mor e hi gh- qual i t y i deas .
We s houl d not e t hat Os bo r n r e c o mme nds br ai ns t or mi ng onl y for cert ai n t ypes
of " s i mpl e and t a l ka bl e " p r o b l e ms p r o b l e ms l i ke, " Ho w can we pr e v e nt st eal i ng
f rom t he l i br a r y ? " and, " Ho w can we get mor e f or ei gn vi si t ors t o Come t o t he Uni t e d
St at e s ? " I nde e d, r es ear c h on gr oup pr obl e m s ol vi ng s ugges t s t hat gr oups do bet t er
t han i ndi vi dual s on s o me ki nds of pr obl e ms but not on ot her s. I ndi vi dual s are as
good or bet t er t han gr oups i n s ol vi ng ar i t hmet i c pr obl e ms ( Hudg i ns , 1960), and i n
s ol vi ng pr obl e ms wh e r e e a c h i ndi vi dual has al l t he ne c e s s ar y i nf or mat i on. Gr oups
are s uper i or t o i ndi vi dual s i n tasks whe r e t he pool i ng of ski l l s a nd i nf ormat i on i s
i mport ant . For e x a mpl e , gr oups are super i or t o i ndi vi dual s for r e me mbe r i ng a
c ompl e x st ory ( Per l mut t er , 1953) , and for s ol vi ng pr e j udi c e - pr ovoki ng s yl l ogi s ms
( Bar nl und, 1959) . Ba r nl und s ugges t s t hat t he gr oup i s mor e obj ec t i ve t han t he
i ndi vi dual b e c a us e pr ej udi c es are not c ompl e t e l y s har ed a mo ng t he me mb e r s of t he
gr oup.
Exercise
For m a gr oup and c onduc t a br ai ns t or mi ng sessi on. Sug g e s t e d t opi cs are:
wa y s t o s ave t i me
wa y s t o k e e p t he ci t y c l e an
us es for di s c a r de d st yrof oam c ups
Individual Brai nstormi ng
Whi l e t he br ai ns t or mi ng t e c hni que wa s de s i g ne d t o be us e d wi t h gr oups , i t can
al so be us e d by a s i ngl e per s on i n pr i vat e i dea- gener at i ng s es s i ons . T h e pr i nci pl es
t o be a ppl i e d are t he s ame. Separ at e i dea gener at i on f rom eval uat i on. Start wi t h t he
i de a ge ne r at i on pha s e , wr i t i ng d o wn i deas as t he y occur , wi t hout cri t i ci sm. Yo u
s houl d we l c o me wi l d or si l l y i deas , and y ou s houl d try t o c o mb i ne or i mpr ov e i deas
t hat we r e g e ne r a t e d ear l i er . T h e har d part i n t hi s phas e i s t o cont rol y our i nt ernal
e d i t o r t h e i nt er nal v oi c e of cr i t i ci sm whi c h ma y l e ad y o u t o i gnor e an i dea that
s e e ms t oo d u mb or t ri vi al .
Just as wi t h gr oup br ai ns t or mi ng, wh e n y ou b e g i n t o run out of i deas , y o u c an
r e v i e w t he l i st as a s our ce t o st i mul at e f urt her pr oduc t i on. Wh e n t he i deas r eal l y
ha v e s t oppe d c omi ng , i t i s t i me t o mo v e on t o t he eval uat i on phas e. He r e y o u
r e v i e w eac h i de a t o s e l e c t t hos e t hat s e e m be s t for s ol v i ng t he pr obl e m.
Exercise
Co n d u c t a br ai ns t or mi ng s es s i on by yoursel f . Sug g e s t e d t opi cs :
h o w t o i nc r eas e y our o wn ef f i ci ency
h o w t o ma k e y our f avori t e a nnoy a nc e l es s a nnoy i ng
h o w t o pe r s ua de s o me o ne t o gi v e y o u a j ob
I ndi v i dual br ai ns t or mi ng sessi ons can be ve r y hel pf ul wh e n y o u are wr i t i ng
( see Fl o we r , 1980). Suppo s e t hat y o u are pl a nni ng a ma g a z i ne art i cl e on archi t ec-
t ure for a t e e na g e a udi e nc e . To br ai nst or m, first gener at e al l of t he i deas y o u can
t hi nk of t hat a t e e na g e r mi ght f i nd i nt er es t i ng or i mpor t ant about ar chi t ect ur e. As
y o u do t hi s, scrat ch d o wn r api d not es i n t he f orm of s cat t er ed wor ds and phr as es that
wi l l r e mi nd y o u of t he i deas . Wh e n i de a gener at i on i s c ompl e t e , eval uat e t he
i d e a s t h a t i s, de c i de whi c h i deas y o u wa nt t o i nc l ude i n y our a r t i c l e a nd t hen
or gani z e t he m i nt o an out l i ne. At t hi s poi nt , y o u are we l l st art ed i n pr oduc i ng your
art i cl e.
DI SCOVERI NG ANALOGI ES
Ana l og i e s are an i mpor t ant s our ce of i deas wh e n we are s ear c hi ng for pr obl e m
sol ut i ons. Se v e r a l s ys t ems ha v e b e e n pr opos e d for s t i mul at i ng t he f ormat i on of
usef ul anal ogi es . I n e s s e nc e , al l of t hes e s ys t ems e mpl o y s ome c hec kl i s t of anal ogy
t ypes . T h e us er of t he s ys t em wor ks t hr ough t he c hec kl i s t and t ri es t o f i nd anal ogi es
of e a c h t y pe .
I n Gor don' s s ynec t i c s s ys t em ( Gor don, 1 961 ) , t he c hec kl i s t consi st s of f our
anal ogy t y pe s : per s onal , di r ect , s y mbol i c , and f ant asy. Suppos e t hat we we r e
me mb e r s of a s ynec t i c s gr oup l ooki ng for i deas t o i mpr ov e aut omobi l e br akes . Fi rst ,
we wo u l d try t o f orm per s onal anal ogi es i n whi c h we put our s e l v e s di r ect l y i nt o t he
pr o b l e m si t uat i on. For e x a mpl e , we c oul d i magi ne our s e l v e s as t he br akes of a car.
Ne xt , we wo u l d s ear ch for a di r ect anal ogy i f t he s ame f unct i on i s a c c ompl i s he d i n
s ome ot her set t i ng, s uc h as a cat t r yi ng t o st op on a s l i pper y fl oor. Thi r d, we wo u l d
try t o f orm s y mbol i c anal ogi es . I wo u l d t el l y o u about t hi s ki nd of anal ogy i f I c oul d,
but unf or t unat el y, I ha v e b e e n una bl e t o f i nd an i nt e l l i gi bl e des c r i pt i on of it.
Fi nal l y, we t hi nk of f ant asy anal ogi es i n whi c h any t hi ng i nc l udi ng magi c and
s c i e nc e f i ct i on are a l l o we d, for i ns t ance, c l a ws r e ac hi ng out of t he road t o grab our
whe e l s .
In Kobe r g and Bagnal l ' s ( 1974) at t ri but e anal ogy s ys t em, t he c hec kl i s t i s a l i st
of at t ri but es of an o b j e c t i t s na me , f orm, f unct i on, col or , and mat er i al . I f we are
t r yi ng t o i mpr ov e s ome obj ect , say, a f i r epl ace, we first l i st its at t ri but es and t hen
at t ach anal ogi es t o e a c h one. Ta b l e 1 i l l ust rat es t he pr oc es s .
Tabl e 1. The Attri bute Anal ogy System (from Koberg and Bagnal l , 1 974)
As s umi ng t he pr o b l e m i s t o i mpr ov e a f i r epl ace, its at t ri but es are:
Name: Fi r e pl a c e
Form: Ge o me t r i c , angul ar , coni cal , et c.
Function: He a t r oom, ps y c hol og i c a l l y s oot hi ng, et c.
Color: Bl ac k, br i c k r ed, et c.
Material: St eel , mas onr y, et c.
Analogy Chains ( si mi l ari t i es)
Name: Co mb us t i o n c ha mbe r , t ea pot , aut o e ng i ne , ci gar et t e l i ght er , et c.
Form: Ar c hi t ec t ur al cons t r uct i ons , cryst al s, pr i s ms , et c.
Function: Ca t on l ap, r obe, i nt i mat e f r i end, et c.
Ideas Produced (for i mpr ov i ng f i r epl ace)
Ch a n g e na me t o e ne r g y t ransf ormer.
Tr y f orms wh i c h are de r i v e d f rom cryst al st ruct ures.
Us e r obe i ns ul at i on pr i nc i pl e t o c ons e r v e radi ant heat , et c.
As y e t t her e appear s t o be no sol i d e xpe r i me nt al e v i d e nc e t hat ei t her s ynect i cs
or at t ri but e anal ogi es act ual l y wor k. Ho we v e r , t he s ynec t i c s s ys t em has r e c e i v e d a
good deal of f avor abl e c o mme n t f rom user s i n i ndus t r y ( see St ei n, 1 975) .
PLANNING AND CREATIVITY
A pl an i s a set of di r ect i ons we us e t o g ui de us i n s ol vi ng a pr obl e m. T h e mor e
effort we put i nt o pl anni ng, t he mor e l i kel y we are t o cons t r uct a good ma p whi c h
wi l l gui de us ef f i ci ent l y t o t he be s t sol ut i on. Si nc e c r eat i ve acts are pr obl e m- s ol vi ng
acts, i t s houl dn' t sur pr i se us t hat pl a nni ng i s al so i mpor t ant for creat i vi t y. Fl o we r
and Ha y e s (1980) ha v e s ho wn t hat good expos i t or y wr i t er s pl an muc h mor e ef f ec-
t i vel y t han do poor wr i t er s .
A pat h- br eaki ng s t udy by Ge t z e l s and Cs i ks z e nt mi ha l y i ( 1976) i ndi cat es that
pl anni ng i s cri t i cal l y i mpor t ant i n art. T h e y s h o we d t hat t he a mount of pl a nni ng *
* These authors claim to measure problem finding rather than planning. However, as these
terms are used in this text, and, I bel i eve, in cognitive science generally, it is more appro-
priate to say that they have measured planning.
t hat an art s t udent di d i n pr e par i ng t o dr aw a pi c t ur e pr e di c t e d not onl y t he qual i t y
of t he r es ul t i ng pi c t ur e, but al so whe t he r or not t he s t udent wo u l d b e c o me a
pr oduc t i ve arti st year s l at er.
T h e i nvest i gat or s t es t ed 31 ma l e s ec ond- and t hi r d- year st udent s at a prest i -
gi ous art s c hool . Ea c h s t udent wa s br ought i nt o an e xpe r i me nt al r oom s uppl i e d
wi t h dr a wi ng mat er i al s , an e mpt y t abl e, and a var i et y of obj ect s. T h e st udent s we r e
as ked t o s e l e c t any of t he obj ect s t he y wa nt e d, ar r ange t he m on t he t abl e as t he y
c hos e, and t he n t o dr a w a pi c t ur e. T h e y we r e t ol d, " T h e i mpor t ant t hi ng i s t hat t he
dr a wi ng s houl d be pl e a s i ng t o y o u . "
T h e e x pe r i me nt e r t he n not e d t hr ee t hi ngs about t he s t udent s ' be ha v i or bef or e
t hey st art ed dr a wi ng and t hr ee t hi ngs about t hei r be ha v i or whi l e t hey we r e dr aw-
i ng. T h e s e si x be hav i or s ( l i st ed i n Ta bl e 2) we r e c hos e n t o r ef l ect t he amount of
pl a nni ng t he s t udent s di d i n e x e c ut i ng t he dr awi ng. For e x a mpl e , st udent s we r e
s cor ed hi g h on pl a nni ng i f t he y e x a mi ne d ma ny obj ect s or i f t he y ma d e ma ny drafts
and t ook c ons i de r a bl e t i me i n ar r i vi ng at t he fi nal st ruct ure of t hei r dr awi ngs .
Tabl e 2. Six Behavi ors Used to Measure Planning
B E F O R E DR A WI NG :
B l . Ho w ma ny obj ect s we r e ma ni pul a t e d?
B2. We r e unus ual obj ect s c h o s e n t h a t i s, di d a s t udent c hoos e obj ect s whi c h f e w
ot her s t udent s c ho s e ?
B3. Ho w car ef ul l y di d t he s t udent e x a mi ne t he obj ect s ?
WH I L E DR A WI NG :
Wl . Ho w mu c h t i me e l a ps e d f rom t he be g i nni ng of dr a wi ng t o t he t i me a t whi c h
t he f i nal st ruct ure a ppe a r e d? ( j udged l at er by l ooki ng at a s e q u e nc e of t i me d
phot ogr aphs )
W2 . Di d t he s ubj ec t start t he dr a wi ng over or c ha ng e t he ar r angement of t he
obj ect s ?
W3 . Wa s t he dr a wi ng s i mpl y a c o py of t he ar r ange me nt of obj ect s, or we r e t he
obj ect s i n t he dr a wi ng modi f i e d i n s i ze, pos i t i on, or nu mb e r ?
T h e dr a wi ng s t hat t he st udent s pr oduc e d we r e t hen e v a l ua t e d i nde pe nde nt l y
by f i ve art cri t i cs for or i gi nal i t y, cr af t smanshi p, and over al l val ue. Ta b l e 3 s hows t he
cor r el at i ons b e t we e n t he av e r age of t he f i ve cri t i cs' j udg me nt s and t he pl a nni ng
be havi or s . F i v e of t he si x pl a nni ng behavi or s s how st rong cor r el at i ons wi t h t he
cri t i cs' j udg me nt s . (In t hi s st udy, a cor r el at i on of 0.3 or l arger s houl d be c ons i de r e d
si gni f i cant . ) Pl anni ng, t he n, appear s t o be ve r y hel pf ul i n cr eat i ng a good dr awi ng.
I n a f ol l ow- up s t udy s e v e n year s l ater, Ge t z e l s and Cs i ks z e nt mi ha l y i t ri ed t o
de t e r mi ne h o w s ucces s f ul t he 31 st udent s we r e i n pur s ui ng arti sti c car eer s. By
c ont ac t i ng art cri t i cs, di r ect or s of art gal l er i es , and t he st udent s t he ms e l v e s , t hey
f ound t hat a bout hal f of t he st udent s had dr oppe d out of art c ompl e t e l y . T h e rest
we r e pur s ui ng car eer s i n t he f i ne arts wi t h var yi ng de g r e e s of s uc c es s . Seven* we r e
us i ng t hei r ski l l s i n r el at ed pr of es s i ons , s uc h as t e a c hi ng art, but had not y e t exhi -
bi t e d t hei r wo r k publ i c l y . T h e r e mai ni ng ni ne had al l e xhi bi t e d. Some we r e repre-
s e nt e d by maj or gal l er i es and one had a c hi e v e d a v e r y not abl e de g r e e of s ucces s .
Hi s wor k i s h u ng i n t he be s t gal l er i es , and art i cl es about hi s wo r k appear i n t he most
r e s pe c t e d art j our nal s .
T h e l ast c o l umn of Ta b l e 1 s hows t he cor r el at i on b e t we e n s ucces s as an arti st
and t he pl a nni ng be ha v i or s me a s ur e d s e v e n year s earl i er. Four of t he si x be havi or s
s how st rong cor r el at i ons wi t h s uc c es s . T h e s i mpl es t wa y t o i nt er pr et t hi s remark-
abl e r es ul t i s t o a s s ume t hat t he s ucces s f ul artists habi t ual l y ma k e pl a nni ng part of
t hei r appr oac h t o arti sti c pr obl e ms . Pl a nni ng l eads t o hi gh qual i t y i n al l t hei r arti sti c
wor k j us t as i t l e d t o hi g h qual i t y i n t he exper i ment al dr awi ngs .
CREATIVITY AND PREPARATION
I n Cha pt e r 2, we r e v i e we d r es ear c h i ndi c at i ng t hat ski l l f ul c he s s pl ayer s em-
pl oy an e nor mous a mount of chess- pat t er n k no wl e dg e . To ac qui r e t hi s k no wl e d g e ,
t he c hes s pl a y e r mus t s pe nd t hous ands of hours of p r e p a r a t i o np l a y i ng c hes s ,
r eadi ng c he s s ma g a z i ne s , and s t udyi ng c hes s posi t i ons. Si mon and Ch a s e ( 1973)
not e t hat i t i s v e r y rare for a per s on t o r eac h t he gr andmas t er l e v e l of ski l l wi t h l ess
t han 10 year s of i nt e ns i v e st udy.
I f c hes s mast er s r e qui r e a l ong and i nt ens i ve pe r i od of pr epar at i on t o ac qui r e
t hei r ski l l , wha t about pai nt er s and c ompos e r s ? Ce r t ai nl y pai nt i ng and c ompos i t i on
r equi r e l ar ge amount s of pat t ern k no wl e d g e . T h e pai nt er mus t k n o w h o w a f ace wi l l
l ook f rom a mul t i t ude of angl es and ho w col ors cl ash or har moni z e . T h e c ompos e r
mus t k no w t he t i mbr es of t he var i ous i nst r ument s and t he s ound, l ook, and f eel of
chords and k e y st r uct ur es. Do c r eat i ve artists t he n al so r equi r e i nt ens e pr epar at i on
bef or e t hey c an pr oduc e wor ks of real mer i t ? Do e s c r eat i ve pr oduc t i vi t y d e p e n d on
preparat i on, or c an g e ni us e s pr oduc e mas t er wor ks r i ght f rom t he be g i nni ng of t hei r
car eer s? To a ns we r t hi s que s t i on, I de c i de d t o e x a mi ne t he l i v e s of f amous c om-
posers.
I st art ed my i nves t i gat i on wi t h t he i nc r e di bl y pr e c oc i ous Mozar t , be c a us e he
i s t he c ompos e r wh o s e e ms l east l i ke l y t o have r e qui r e d a l ong pe r i od of prepara-
t i on. He be g a n t o s t udy mus i c at f our and wr ot e hi s fi rst s y mp ho ny at t he age of
ei ght .
I have gr a phe d t he numb e r of wor ks t hat Moz ar t pr o duc e d i n eac h year of hi s
car eer i n Fi g ur e 1 . T h e f i gur e s hows t hat Mozar t ' s pr oduc t i vi t y i nc r eas ed st eadi l y
for t he first 10 or 12 year s of hi s car eer . I t al so s hows t hat Moz ar t di d pr oduc e wor ks
i n t he ver y ear l y part of hi s car eer wh e n he had had onl y a year or t wo of prepara-
ti on. I f t hes e are wor ks of v e r y hi gh qual i t y, t hen we c oul d c onc l ude , for Moz ar t at
l east, t hat he di dn' t r equi r e l ong pr epar at i on t o be out s t andi ngl y cr eat i ve. Ho we v e r ,
2T i i i I l i i i II i i i t I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i | i
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Number of years into career
Figure 1.
The year marked 0 on t he graph i s 1760, the year when Mozart wa s four and began inten-
si ve musi cal training. The sol id line in t he fi gure is bas ed on information from Grove's
Dictionary of Music (1955). The das hed line is based on Koec hel ' s l i sti ngs (1965) as
revi sed by modern musi col ogi st s. The s e two s our c e s are i n r easonabl e agr eement
about what wor ks wer e produced when.
t hes e ear l y wor ks ma y not be of out s t andi ng qual i t y. Per haps t he y have b e e n
pr e s e r v e d for t hei r hi st ori cal rat her t han t hei r mus i cal val ue.
To obt ai n s ome me a s ur e of t he qual i t y of Mozar t ' s wor k, I t ur ned, oddl y
e no ug h, to Sc hwa nn' s Record and Tape Guide. I r e a s one d t hat an e x c e l l e nt wor k
i s l i ke l y t o be r e c or de d mor e of t en t han a poor one. T h e de c i s i on t o r ecor d a wor k
pr e s uma bl y r ef l ect s bot h mus i c al j udg me nt and popul ar t a s t e t ha t i s, i t ref l ect s
t he mus i cal j u d g me n t by a c onduc t or t hat t he wor k i s wo r t hwhi l e and t he be l i e f of
t he r ecor d c ompa ni e s t hat t he r ecor d wi l l sel l .
Fi g ur e 2 s hows t he n u mb e r of r ecor di ngs l i s t ed i n Sc hwa nn' s g ui de ( August ,
1979) of wor ks wr i t t en i n e a c h year of Mozar t ' s car eer . Whi l e about 1 2 per c ent of
Mozar t ' s wor ks we r e wr i t t en i n t he first 10 year s of hi s car eer , onl y 4. 8 per c ent of
t he r ecor di ngs c a me f rom t hi s ear l y per i od. Fur t her , ma ny of t he r ec or di ngs of ear l y
wor ks are i nc l ude d i n c ol l ec t i ons wi t h l abel s s uc h as, " T h e Co mp l e t e Sy mphoni e s
of Moz ar t . " Pe r haps t he ear l y wor ks we r e i nc l ude d for r easons of c ompl e t e ne s s
rat her t han e x c e l l e nc e . Wh e n r ec or di ngs i nc l ude d i n c o mpl e t e col l ect i ons are
omi t t ed f rom t he c al c ul at i ons , t he pe r c e nt a ge of r ec or di ngs i n t hi s ear l y per i od
Nu mb e r of y e a r s i nto c a r e e r
Figure 2.
drops t o 2.4. T h e s e obs er vat i ons s ugges t t hat Mozar t ' s ear l y wor ks are not of t he
same hi gh qual i t y as hi s l at er ones . T h e mus i c cri t i c, Har ol d Sc honbe r g, i s of t he
same opi ni on. He says ( 1970)
It i s st range t o say of a c ompos e r wh o st art ed wr i t i ng at si x, and l i ve d
onl y 36 year s , t hat he d e v e l o p e d l at e, but t hat i s t he truth. F e w of Mozar t ' s
earl y wor ks , e l e g a nt as t he y are, ha v e t he per sonal i t y, concent r at i on, and
r i chness t hat e nt e r e d hi s mus i c after 1 7 81 "
I n 1 781 , Moz ar t wa s i n t he 21 s t year of hi s career.
Some wor ks are r e c or de d t wo or t hr ee t i mes i n di f f er ent c ompl e t e c ol l ec t i ons .
The r e f or e , t o we e d out wor ks wh i c h may be r e c or de d for r easons ot her t han mus i c al
qual i t y, I de f i ne d a mas t e r wor k (for t he pur pos es of t hi s st udy) as one for whi c h f i ve
di f f erent r ec or di ngs are cur r ent l y l i s t ed i n Sc hwa nn' s g ui de . By t hi s def i ni t i on,
Moz ar t ' s fi rst mas t e r wor k wa s wr i t t en i n t he 12t h year of hi s car eer .
To e xpl or e t he que s t i on about cr eat i vi t y and pr epar at i on mor e gener al l y, I
s e ar c he d for bi ogr aphi c al mat eri al about al l of t he c ompos e r s di s c us s e d i n Sc hon-
ber g' s The Lives of the Great Composers ( 1970) . For 76 of t hes e c ompos e r s , I wa s
abl e t o de t e r mi ne wh e n t he y st art ed i nt ens i ve st udy of mus i c . I nc i dent al l y, al l of
t hes e c ompos e r s had at l east one wor k l i s t ed i n Sc hwa nn' s g ui de , and 64 had one
or mor e wor ks wh i c h we r e avai l abl e on f i ve di f f erent r ecor ds .
I n Fi g ur e 3 al l of t he car eer s of t he c ompos er s are s ho wn on t he s ame scal e.
Tha t i s, t he 10t h year of Ha nde l ' s c ar eer i s gr aphe d i n t he s ame pl ac e as t he 10t h
year of Br a hms ' car eer . T h e f i gure s hows t hat ve r y f e w c ompos e r s pr o duc e d mast er-
wor ks wi t h l ess t han 1 0 year s of pr epar at i on. Th e r e are j us t t hr ee e xc e pt i ons : Sat i e' s
" Tr oi s Gy mn o p e d i e s , " wr i t t en i n year 8; Shos t akovi c h' s S y mp ho ny # 1 , and Paga-
ni ni ' s Ca pr i c e s , bot h wr i t t en i n year 9. Be t we e n y e a r 1 0 and year 25, t her e i s an
e nor mous i nc r eas e i n pr oduct i vi t y.
0 2 10 18 26 34 42
Nu mb e r of y e a r s i nto c a r e e r
Figure 3.
Fi g ur e 4 s hows t hat c ompos e r s mai nt ai n t hei r pr oduc t i vi t y t hr ough t he 40th
year of t hei r car eer s . Fi g ur e 5 i ndi cat es t hat a de c l i ne i n pr oduc t i vi t y be g i ns at
about t he 50t h year of t hei r car eer s . Pr oduc t i vi t y can c ont i nue far b e y o n d t he 50th
year , ho we v e r . For e x a mpl e , Al be ni z ' s first mas t e r wor k wa s wr i t t en i n t he 7 2nd
year of hi s car eer !
I t i s r eas onabl e t o ask whe t he r t he i mpor t ant f act or i n t he c ompos e r s ' pr oduc -
t i vi t y i s r eal l y pr epar at i on or i f per haps t he i mpor t ant f actor i s s i mpl y age. It i s
c onc e i v abl e , for e x a mpl e , t hat c ompos e r s ha v e t o b e , say, 1 6 or 22, be f or e t he y can
wr i t e good mus i c . Pe r ha ps i t i s e x pe r i e nc e i n l i f e rat her t han e x pe r i e nc e i n mus i c
that i s cri t i cal . To t est t hi s pos s i bi l i t y, I di v i de d t he c ompos e r s i nt o t hr ee gr oups .
T h e first c ons i s t ed of 1 4 c ompos e r s wh o had b e g u n t hei r car eer s b e t we e n t he ages
of 3 and 5. T h e s e c ond gr oup c ons i s t ed of 30 c ompos e r s wh o b e g a n t hei r careers
b e t we e n 6 and 9 year s of age. T h e t hi rd gr oup c ons i s t ed of 20 c ompos e r s wh o be g a n
t hei r careers at 10 or l at er.
I r eas oned t hat i f age we r e t he cri t i cal factor, t he n t hos e wh o st art ed t hei r
careers earl y wo u l d ha v e t o wa i t l onge r t o pr oduc e g ood wo r k t han t hos e c ompos er s
wh o st art ed l at e. I n f act, t hi s wa s not t he c as e. T h e me di a n n u mb e r of year s t o first
not abl e c ompos i t i on wa s 1 6. 5 for t he fi rst gr oup, 22 for t he s e c ond gr oup, and 21 . 5
for t he t hi rd gr oup.
I t appear s , t hen, t hat wha t c ompos e r s n e e d t o wr i t e g ood mus i c i s not mat ur i ng
but rat her mus i c al pr epar at i on. T h e resul t s ma ke i t dr amat i cal l y c l ear t hat no one
c ompos es out s t andi ng mus i c wi t hout first ha v i ng about 1 0 year s of i nt ens i ve
musi cal pr epar at i on.
T h e s e r esul t s do not me a n t hat t her e i s no s uc h t hi ng as ge ni us . T h e y do not
me a n t hat j us t a ny one wi t h 1 0 t o 25 year s of e x pe r i e nc e can wr i t e great mus i c . T h e y
do me a n t hat e v e n a pe r s on e n d o we d wi t h t he ge ni us of Moz ar t or Be e t ho v e n wi l l
n e e d 1 0 year s or mor e of i nt ens e pr epar at i on t o be cr eat i ve.
T h e s e r esul t s ha v e t he f ol l owi ng pr act i cal i mpl i cat i ons :
1 . I f y o u ha v e b e e n wo r k i ng har d i n y our c hos e n ar ea for s ever al year s and
ha v e n' t y e t r e c e i v e d a No b e l or e v e n a Pul i t z er pr i z e, don' t despai r . Thi nk
i n t er ms of de c a de s rat her t han year s.
2. I f y o u ha v e d e c i d e d t o go i nt o c r eat i ve wo r k b e c a us e y o u are " bas i c al l y
l a z y , " y o u ha v e ma de a ghast l y mi s t ake. Cr e a t i v e sci ent i st s t ypi c al l y wor k
70-80 hour s a we e k . Yo u wo u l d do bet t er t o be a p l u mb e r or me c hani c .
T h e s e are honor a bl e pr of essi ons and t he y pay mu c h bet t er pe r hour t han
s c i e nc e or art.
SUMMARY
A cr eat i ve act i s one whi c h:
1. is or i gi nal ,
2. v a l ua bl e , a nd>
3. s ugges t s t hat t he per s on per f or mi ng t he act has unus ual ment al abi l i t i es.
Cogni ti ve Processes in Creati ve Acts 2/ 5
A c r eat i ve act i s a pr obl e m- s ol v i ng act, and, i n par t i cul ar i t i s t he sol ut i on of an
i l l - def i ned pr obl e m. Four c ogni t i ve pr oc es s es e s pe c i a l l y i mpor t ant for creat i vi t y
are: p r o b l e m f i ndi ng, i de a gener at i on, pl anni ng, and pr epar at i on.
Problem findingthe di s c over y of a n e w pr obl e m not s ug g e s t e d by any one
e l s e i s i mpor t ant i n i ni t i at i ng n e w di r ect i ons i n s c i e nc e and art. Th r e e pr oc edur es
t hat c an h e l p us t o f i nd pr obl e ms are: b u g l i st i ng, s e ar c hi ng for c ount e r e xampl e s ,
and s e ar c hi ng for al t er nat i ve i nt er pr et at i ons.
Some t i me s , wh e n we are t r yi ng t o s ol ve an i l l - def i ned pr obl e m, \ v e are bl oc ke d
by di f f i cul t y i n generating ideas for sol ut i on. Br ai ns t or mi ng and di s c ov e r i ng anal -
ogi es c a n he l p us out of t hi s di f f i cul t y.
Planning i s i mpor t ant i n cr eat i ve act i vi t i es as i t i s i n any f orm of pr obl e m
s ol vi ng. Go o d wr i t i ng and good art d e p e n d on good pl anni ng.
Ex t e ns i v e preparation i s es s ent i al for acts of out s t andi ng cr eat i vi t y. Co mpo s e r s
r equi r e about 1 0 year s of pr epar at i on bef or e t hey can pr oduc e wor ks of out s t andi ng
qual i t y.
REFERENCES
Ada ms , J. L. Conceptual Blockbusting. San Fr anc i s c o: W. H. Fr e e ma n & Co. , 1 974.
Bar nl und, D. C. " A Compa r a t i v e St udy of I ndi vi dual , Maj ori t y, and Gr o up Judg-
me nt . " Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 58, 55- 60, 1 959.
Bouc har d T. J. , Jr. " A Compa r i s on of T w o Gr o up Br ai ns t or mi ng Pr oc e dur e s . "
Journal of Applied Psychology, 56, 41 8- 421 , 1 972.
Ei ns t e i n A. , and I nf el d, L. The Evolution of Physics. Ne w York: Si mon and
Schust er , I nc. , 1938.
Fl owe r , L. Problem Solving Strategies for Writing. Ne w Yor k: Haxcourt , Br ac e,
Jovanovi c h, I nc. , 1980.
Fl owe r , L. , and Ha y e s , J. R. " T h e Cog ni t i on of Di s c ov e r y : De f i ni ng a Rhet or i cal
Pr obl e m. " College Composition and Communication, 2( 31 ) , 21 - 32, 1980.
Ge t z e l s , J. W. , and Cs i ks z e nt mi ha l y i , M. The Creative Vision: A Longitudinal Study
of Problem Finding in Art. Ne w York: John Wi l e y & Sons , Inc. , 1 976.
Gor don W. J. J. Synectics. N e w York: Col l i e r , 1 961 .
Grove's Dictionary of Music and Musicians, Fi f t h Edi t i on. N e w York: St. Mart i n' s
Pr ess, Inc. , 1 955.
Hayes , J.R. Cognitive Psychology: Thinking and Creating. Ho me wo o d , I L: T h e
Dor s e y Pr ess, 1 978.
Hudgi ns , B. B. " Ef f ec t s of Gr o up Ex pe r i e nc e on I ndi v i dual Pr obl e m Sol v i ng . "
Journal of Educational Psychology, 5 1 , 37- 42, 1960.
Kober g, D. , and Bagnal l , J. The Universal Traveler, Thi r d Edi t i on. Lo s Al t os, CA:
Wi l l i am Kauf mann, Inc. , 1 974.
KoechelABC, Fi f t h Edi t i on. Wi e s ba de n: Br e i t kopf and Har t el , 1 965.
Ne we l l , A. , Shaw, J. C. , and Si mon, H. A. " T h e Pr oc e s s e s of Cr e a t i v e Thi nk i ng . " I n
Contemporary Approaches to Creative Thinking, Thi r d Edi t i on, e di t e d by H. E.
Gr uber , G. Te r r e l l , and M. We r t he i me r . Ne w Yor k: At her t on Pr ess, 1964.
ELEVEN.
HOW SOCIAL CONDI TI ONS
AFFECT CREATIVITY*
Cr eat i vi t y c an oc c ur on a var i et y of l e v e l s , as poi nt e d out i n Cha pt e r 10. Wh e n
we s peak of cr eat i vi t y i n t hi s chapt er , we me a n t he v e r y hi ghe s t l e v e l of
c r e a t i v i t y t he l e v e l at wh i c h a s y mpho ny i s pr oduc e d, a sci ent i f i c di s c ov e r y ma de ,
or a Pul i t z e r - pr i z e - wi nni ng pl ay i s wr i t t en.
We are i n no wa y s ugge s t i ng t hat pe o pl e wh o aspi r e t o and a c hi e v e t hi s hi gh
l e v e l of cr eat i vi t y are bet t er , happi er , or mor e per s onal l y f ul f i l l ed t han t he rest of
us. An d we c er t ai nl y ha v e no ma g i c f or mul a t o i nsur e t hat pe o pl e can b e c o me a
Re mbr a ndt or an Ei ns t e i n or a Mozar t .
St i l l , we do k no w s ome f actors t hat are i mpor t ant for a c hi e v i ng hi gh- l e ve l
creat i vi t y. I n t he l ast c hapt er we di s c us s e d t he i mpor t anc e of k no wl e d g e , pl an-
ni ng, and har d wor k; i n t hi s c hapt er we wi l l di s cus s h o w soci al condi t i ons af f ect
creat i vi t y.
I NTRODUCTI ON
Wh e n we c ompa r e gr oups of pe o pl e i n t he Uni t e d St at es, we f i nd e nor mous
di f f er ences a mong t he m i n c r eat i ve pr oduct i vi t y. Me n a c hi e v e mor e t han wo me n ;
Jews , mor e t han Chr i s t i ans ; Or i ent al s , mor e t han whi t e s ; and whi t e s , mor e t han
bl acks and nat i ve Ame r i c a ns .
Some c l ai m t hat t he s e di f f er ences are i nnat e. For e x a mpl e , Je ns e n ( 1 971 ) has
ar gued t hat raci al di f f er enc es i n i nt el l ect ual per f or manc e, par t i cul ar l y on I Q t est s,
are due i n part t o her edi t y. Ho we v e r , Br ody and Br ody ( 1976) ha v e car ef ul l y re-
v i e we d t he r es ear c h on raci al di f f er ences i n i nt e l l i ge nc e . T h e y f ound no e v i de nc e
t o s ugges t t hat t he di f f er enc es are her edi t ar y.
We b e l i e v e t hat di f f er enc es i n hi gh- l e v e l cr eat i vi t y b e t we e n gr oups are due
l ar gel y t o di f f er ences i n e nv i r onme nt . Some e nv i r onme nt s f ost er cr eat i vi t y and
s ome do not . As we s ee it, s oci et y has b e e n c onduc t i ng s ome ve r y l arge- scal e
" nat ur al " e xpe r i me nt s on cr eat i vi t y. Me n and wo me n i n our s oci et y are rai sed
di f f erent l y, e v e n t houg h t hey ma y be r ai sed i n t he s ame hous e hol d. Jews and
Chri st i ans are t aught di f f erent at t i t udes t owar d l ear ni ng. Bl ac ks and whi t e s are
gi ven di f f erent e c onomi c oppor t uni t i es . Al l of t hes e di f f er ences can i nf l uence crea-
*Thi s chapter was written wi t h Sandra J. Bond, of Carnegi e- Mel l on University.
t i ve pr oduc t i vi t y. By e x a mi ni ng t he e x pe r i e nc e s of pe o pl e i n t hes e gr oups , we can
gai n s ome i ns i ght i nt o h o w t hi s ha ppe ns .
MEN AND WOMEN
Hi s t or i cal l y, me n ha v e b e e n mor e cr eat i ve t han wo me n , as Ta b l e 1 s hows . Thi s
i s t rue not onl y for t he s c i e nc e s and pol i t i cs, but for t he arts as we l l . Al t houg h t her e
are about e qua l numbe r s of me n and wo me n i n our popul at i on (49 per c ent , ma l e ;
51 per c ent , f emal e) , me n ha v e cl ear l y o v e r s ha do we d wo me n i n c r eat i ve ac c om-
Tabl e 1. Achi evement s by Men and Wome n
Nobel Prizes ( 1 901 - 1 979) Men Women
phys i c s 1 1 2 2
c hemi s t r y 90 3
phy s i ol og y or me di c i ne 1 22 2
e c onomi c s 1 5 0
National Academy of Science Awards
a
Car t y Me d a l i n Sc i e nc e ( 1932- 1978) 1 5 0
i
*** Dr a pe r Me d a l i n Phy s i c s (1886-1980) 41 1
to El l i ot Me d a l i n Zo o l o g y or Pal e ont ol ogy ( 1 91 7- 1 979) 46 1
Ko v a l e nk o Me d a l i n Me di c a l Sc i e nc e ( 1 952- 1 979) 1 2 0
Th o mp s o n Me da l i n Ge o l o g y or Pal e ont ol ogy ( 1 921 - 1 976) 27 0
National Medal of Science ( 1962- 1979) 1 53 2
AMA Distinguished Service Award ( 1938- 1979) 42 0
Tot al 635 1 1
(98%) (2%)
Nobel Prize ( 1 901 - 1 979)
l i t er at ur e 75 5
Pulitzer Prizes
f i ct i on 53 18
dr ama 66 5
to poet r y 56 1 1
mus i c 34 2
bi ogr a phy 64 6
Prix de Rome ( musi c) 1 31 8
Tot al 5 1 5 55
(90%) ( 10%)
Nobel Prize ( 1901- 1980)
pe a c e 65 6
CO
U.S. Senators 99 1
"S Members of the House of Representatives 4 1 9 16
Governors 48 2
Tot al 631 25
(96%) (4%)
Li s t i ngs in Who's Who in America ( 1980- 1981) 9 4 % 6 %
Percent of popul ati on in the United States: men, 49 percent; women, 51 percent. Popula-
tion figures for 1 978: mal es, 106. 5 million; femal es, 1 1 2. 0 million.
How Social Condi ti ons Affect Creativity 279
pl i s hme nt . Ar e wo me n l es s c r eat i ve t han me n by nat ur e? We f eel t hat t her e i s r eal l y
no r eas on t o b e l i e v e so. Our cul t ur e treats me n and wo me n v e r y di f f erent l y. Wo me n
are g i v e n far l es s oppor t uni t y and e nc o ur a g e me nt t o be cr eat i ve t han are me n. I n
t he f ol l owi ng s ect i ons , we wi l l ar gue t hat t hes e di f f er enc es i n t r eat ment can ma ke
an e nor mous di f f er ence i n cr eat i ve out put .
Some Prerequisites for Creati vi ty: Interest, Sel f -conf i dence, and Ti me
I n Cha pt e r 1 0 we f ound t hat e v e n Moz ar t and Be e t h o v e n r e qui r e d mor e t han
1 0 year s of i nt ens i ve pr epar at i on bef or e t hey c oul d b e g i n t o pr oduc e t hei r mast er-
wor ks . I n any f i el d, pe o pl e wh o wa nt t o be cr eat i ve mus t e x pe c t t o i nves t enor mous
amount s of t i me and effort i n t hei r pr of es s i on and e v e n t he n i t ma y not be e noug h.
T h e effort i nv ol v e d goes far b e y o n d t he hour s a nor mal j o b r equi r es . For e xampl e ,
Uni ver s i t y of Cal i f or ni a prof essors s pe nd an average of 60 hour s we e k l y on t each-
i ng and r es ear ch ( Harri s, 1 972) . S o me s pe nd mu c h mor e t i me. He r be r t Si mon, 1978
No b e l Laur eat e i n Ec o no mi c s , s pent about 100 hour s a we e k for year s doi ng t he
wor k for wh i c h he e v e nt ua l l y wo n t he No b e l pr i z e ( per sonal c ommuni c at i on) . Si nc e
t her e are onl y 168 hour s i n a we e k , i t i s obv i ous t hat i nt ens i ve c r eat i ve wor k of t hi s
t ype ne c e s s ar i l y t akes p r e c e d e nc e ov e r e v e r y t hi ng e l s e i n c l u d i n g s l e e p!
Pe o pl e wh o c an i nves t t hi s sort of i nt ens e effort i n a f i el d mus t ha v e :
1. Suf f i ci ent i nt er es t i n t he f i el d t hat t he y want t o i nve s t t he t i me ;
2. suf f i ci ent s el f - c onf i denc e t o b e l i e v e t hat t he y are not s i mpl y was t i ng t hei r
t i me ; and
3. suf f i ci ent f r e e dom f rom ot her r es pons i bi l i t i es so t hat ne c e s s ar y t i me i s avai l -
abl e t o t he m.
Ou r cul t ur e ma k e s i t far mor e l i kel y t hat me n wi l l me e t t he s e cri t eri a t han
wo me n .
Education of Females: The Early Years
By t radi t i on, mal e s and f emal es have v e r y di f f erent r ol es i n our c u l t u r e r o l e s
t hey are e x pe c t e d t o pl ay f rom v e r y ear l y c hi l dhood on. Wh e n we hear of a c hi l d
be i ng bor n, we are al mos t a l wa y s t ol d its sex. Sexual i dent i t y i s t aken ve r y ser i ousl y,
and t he c hi l d i s r ar el y a l l o we d t o f orget it. As i nf ant s, bo y s are dr e s s e d i n bl ue and
have bo y s ' na me s , whi l e gi rl s are dr e s s e d i n pi nk and have gi r l s' name s . As four-
year- ol ds, bo y s are e x pe c t e d t o be i nt er es t ed i n t r ucks ; and gi rl s, i n dol l s. I n t he
pri mary gr ades , bo y s are e x pe c t e d t o s how mor e i nt er est i n s c i e nc e t han gi rl s do.
The s e expect at i ons mo l d c hi l dr en' s i nt erest s. Tor r anc e (1960) f ound t hat gi rl s are
rel uct ant t o wor k wi t h s c i e nc e t oys and of t en say t hat t hes e t oys ar en' t sui t abl e for
t hem, and that boy s s ugge s t t wi c e as ma ny i deas as gi rl s i n e xpe r i me nt s wi t h
s ci ence mat eri al s. By c ha ng i ng t he t e a c hi ng condi t i ons , t hough, Tor r anc e wa s abl e
t o r e duc e t hi s di f f er ence si gni f i cant l y. He c o nc l ude d t hat soci al f orces we r e at wor k
e v e n at earl y ages t o t urn gi rl s a wa y f rom cer t ai n f i el ds.
Not onl y doe s s oc i et y g ui de gi rl s' i nt erest s a wa y f rom s c i e n c e i t al so di rect s
t hem ver y powe r f ul l y t owar d ot her oc c upat i ons i n wh i c h i t i s di f f i cul t t o pur s ue
hi gh- l evel cr eat i ve act i vi t i es. C h i e f a mong t hes e " wo me n ' s j o b s " i s " wi f e- and-
mot her . " Ac c or di ng t o t he cul t ural i deal , t he wi f e- and- mot her i s a h o me ma k e r
she cl eans , s e ws , c ooks , and wa s he s at ho me , i s " f ul f i l l e d" by r ai si ng ba bi e s , and
admi r es and support s her hus band. I t i s eas y t o gues s t hat t her e i s l i ttl e about t hi s
occupat i on t hat f osters t he c r eat i ve ef f ort nec es s ar y t o pr oduc e a mas t er wor k. If a
wi f e- and- mot her doe s wo r k out s i de t he home , s oci et y e nc our a g e s her t o ent er
wome n' s occupat i ons s uc h as dome s t i c hel per , nur s e, secret ary, and t eacher . Th e s e
occupat i ons have r el at i vel y l ow status and l ow pay, and offer l i t t l e oppor t uni t y for
creat i ve a c hi e v e me nt .
220
The Compl et e Probl em Solver
Self-confidence
Role Model s
It i s hel pf ul for pe o pl e pl a nni ng t o ent er a di f f i cul t f i el d t o have rol e
mo d e l s t h a t i s, pe o pl e t he y admi r e and wa nt t o i mi t at e, wh o can s how t he m what
i t i s t o l ead t he sort of l i f e t o whi c h t he y aspi re. I f y o u wa nt t o be a phys i c i an, you
wi l l have a real advant age i f a par ent , cl os e r el at i ve, or f r i end i s a phys i c i an. You
wi l l be abl e t o l ear n f i rst hand wha t sorts of pr obl e ms doct ors f ace and h o w t hey deal
wi t h t he m.
The r e i s no que s t i on t hat t he pe o pl e we s el ec t as r ol e mo de l s have a power f ul
ef f ect on t he di r ec t i on our l i f e c an t ake. T w o of t he s ucces s f ul wo me n i n our
s t u d y t h e first, a phy s i c i an; t he s ec ond, an el ect r i cal e n g i n e e r t a l k about t hei r
rol e mode l s :
At t he age of 1 1 , 1 wa s t aken i n by [ a doct or ' s f ami l y] t o l i ve wi t h t hem
i n Ne w Yor k. Thi s i s wh e r e my a c a de mi c i nt el l ect ual l i f e and my i nt erest
i n me di c i ne be g a n, for [the doct or ] l ov e d t o t al k ov e r hi s cases wi t h me . I
of t en we n t on hi s r ounds wi t h hi m. ( Kunds i n, 1974)
Ex pe r i e nc e s dur i ng t he ear l y year s not onl y s hape c hi l dr en' s i nt erest s, t he y
al so he l p t o de t e r mi ne whe t he r c hi l dr e n wi l l d e v e l o p suf f i ci ent c onf i de nc e i n
t he ms e l v e s t o c o mpe t e i n c r eat i ve f i el ds.
It i s t radi t i onal i n our cul t ur e t o b e l i e v e t hat as a gr oup wo me n suf f er f rom
cer t ai n i nt el l ect ual def i ci t s. I t i s sai d t hat wo me n can' t ha ndl e abst ract i deas and
t hat t he y can' t t hi nk l ogi cal l y. A corol l ary of t hes e be l i e f s i s t hat wo me n can' t do
we l l i n mat h- or s c i enc e- r el at ed f i el ds s uc h as e ng i ne e r i ng , me di c i ne , or f i nance. I f
a y o u ng gi rl ' s par ent s b e l i e v e t hes e t hi ngs , i t ma y be di f f i cul t for her t o d e v e l o p
c onf i de nc e t hat she c oul d s uc c e e d i n any of t hes e f i el ds.
I n a s t udy of s ucces s f ul and uns uc c es s f ul wo me n , Bo nd and Ha y e s ( 1978) f ound
t hat parent s of s uc c es s f ul wo me n don' t share t hi s cul t ural s t er eot ype. On e of t he
s ucces s f ul wo me n , a psychi at r i st , says:
My f at her s har ed t he v i e w t hat wo me n s houl d do wha t e v e r wo r k t he y we r e
e q u i p p e d t o do and ga v e me f ai th i n mysel f , det er mi nat i on, and mor al
support . (Rossi and Ca l de r wo o d, 1 973)
Anot her , a s uc c es s f ul c he mi s t , st at es:
It wa s a l wa y s a s s ume d t hat I wo u l d pur s ue a sci ent i f i c car eer , si nce I
s ho we d s ome t al ent i n t hat di r ect i on. I c annot say t hat I wa s e nc our a g e d
t o have pr of es s i onal aspi rat i ons, as mu c h as t hat i t wa s a s s ume d t hat I
wo u l d f ul f i l l t he m. ( Kunds i n, 1974)
A pedi at r i ci an r ecal l s :
To my f at her and mot her , i t wa s i mpor t ant t hat pe o pl e are wha t t hey
a r e a n d t hat b e i n g wh o and wha t I wa s wa s good. As a wo ma n, I wa s t ol d,
I wo u l d be abl e t o do wha t e v e r I wa nt e d. ( Kunds i n, 1974)
A not ed phy s i c i a n says:
Dur i ng a do l e s c e nc e and c ol l e ge , i t wa s t aken for gr ant ed by e v e r y one ,
i nc l udi ng mys el f , t hat I wo u l d go i nt o me di c al s chool . No one s e e me d t o
have any doubt s at al l t hat I wo u l d go, and r et r os pec t i vel y, t he mos t ex-
t raordi nary f act or I c an n o w r e c ogni z e i s t hat ne v e r onc e whi l e I was
g r o wi ng up do I r e me mb e r any one at any t i me e v e r s ugge s t i ng t hat t her e
was s ome t hi ng I c oul d not do s i mpl y be c a us e I wa s f emal e. Ev e r y o n e I
k n e w or e v e r c a me i n cont act wi t h s i mpl y t ook i t for gr ant ed t hat wha t e v e r
I wa nt e d t o do, I c oul d do. ( Kunds i n, 1974)
How Social Condi ti ons Affect Creativity 22 7
My pr of es s i onal car eer can be sai d t o ha v e st art ed wi t h f r eshman
phy s i c s . My pe r f or manc e i n that cl ass i mpr e s s e d my t e ac he r e no ug h s o that
s he, on he r o wn, st art ed t o offer me pr of essi onal c ouns e l i ng. She s ugge s t e d
I pur s ue a c ar eer i n s c i e nc e . Thi s pr of essor mai nt ai ne d an i nt er est i n me
t houg hout my under gr aduat e days a t Hunt e r Co l l e g e and br oa de ne d my
hor i z ons by ma ny or der s of ma gni t ude . ( Kunds i n, 1974)
Wo me n ma y be bet t er rol e mode l s for ot her wo me n b e c a us e t hey can s how
t he m h o w t o deal ef f ec t i vel y wi t h t he s peci al di f f i cul t i es t hat wo me n e n c o u n t e r
s exi s m, rol e conf l i ct s, et c. Unf or t unat el y, be c a us e t her e are r el at i vel y f e w wo me n
i n cr eat i ve f i el ds now, t her e are r el at i vel y f e w wo me n wh o c an s er ve as rol e mode l s
for y o ung f emal es wh o wa nt t o ent er t hes e f i el ds.
For a wo ma n, her mos t si gni f i cant rol e mo de l ma y be her mot her . I t s houl d
c o me as no surpri se t hat " mot he r s wh o stay ho me t o rai se a f ami l y us ual l y have
daught er s wh o wa nt t o do j us t t hat " ( Angri st and Al mqui s t , 1 975) . Of c ol l e g e wo me n
wh o aspi re t o car eer s , onl y 20 pe r c e nt have mot her s wh o had ne v e r wo r k e d out s i de
t he home . For c o l l e g e wo me n wh o do not aspi r e t o a car eer , t he c ompa r a bl e f i gure
i s 50 pe r c e nt ( Angr i st and Al mqui s t , 1 975) . Mot her s wh o wor k out s i de t he ho me not
onl y c o nv e y t o t hei r daught e r s t hat wo r k i ng i s v a l ue d, but t he y al so s er ve as exam-
pl es of ho w t o s uc c es s f ul l y c o mbi ne c ar eer and mot he r hood. He r e i s h o w t wo
s ucces s f ul wo me n (the first, a psychi at r i st ; t he s e c ond, a c ol l e g e admi ni st rat or)
put it:
Al l of t he wo me n i n my f ami l y wor k e d. I t wa s e x pe c t e d t hat I wo ul d. Bot h
of my par ent s we r e pr of essi onal s and t hi s i nf l ue nc e d my c hoi c e t o t ake up
a pr of essi onal oc c upat i on. ( Rossi and Ca l d e r wo o d , 1973)
I don' t b e l i e v e i t has e v e r oc c ur r e d t o a ny one on ei t her s i de of t he f ami l y
t hat a wo ma n c oul d be or ought t o be ' a me r e hous e wi f e , ' and har dl y a man
i n t he f ami l y wo u l d be l i ke l y t o c hoos e a wi f e wh o s aw he r s e l f i n t hat s i ngl e
rol e. It i s a f ami l y i n wh i c h e v e r y wo ma n i s s uppos e d t o be somebody.
(Rossi and Ca l d e r wo o d , 1973)
I n cont rast , he r e are t wo st at ement s f rom non- car eer - or i ent ed c ol l e g e wo me n
wi t h mot her s wh o had ne v e r wo r k e d out s i de t he home :
I wo u l d l i ke t o get mar r i ed and have a f ami l y and I don' t wa nt t o be a car eer
woma n. Tha t i s a ve r y pot ent st at ement . I t hi nk my mot he r i s a good
exampl e of wha t I wo u l d l i ke t o be and I have s ever al gi r l f r i ends wh o s e
mot her s are t he s ame. T h e y are not car eer wo me n y e t t he y are v e r y act i ve
i n t he c ommuni t y . I t hi nk y o u can k e e p up wi t h wha t i s g oi ng on i n t he
wor l d and y o u don' t have t o wor k al l your l i f e.
( Al mqui s t and Angr i st , 1 97 1 )
and:
Our f ami l y l i f e has b e e n ki nd of st range. My f at her e v e n has a l i ttl e be l l he
ri ngs and my mot he r c o me s r unni ng and br i ngs hi m cof f ee and he wi l l cal l
her f rom anot her r oom t o c ha ng e t he t el evi s i on stati on. An d i t has b e e n so
successf ul . He i s so ha ppy and she i s ha ppy do i ng it. Wh y not t reat hi m l i ke
a ki ng be c a us e t he ma l e e g o i s ki nd of a s ens i t i ve t hi ng t o go t ampe r i ng
wi t h. My l i f e i s pr oba bl y not goi ng t o ma k e t hat mu c h di f f er ence on so-
ci et y, but ma y b e wha t my hus band and c hi l dr e n do wi l l . I don' t f eel that
I am that i mport ant , but i f I had t he t i me l ef t over , I wo u l d l i ke t o do
vol unt eer wor k or s pe nd t i me on my o wn hobbi e s . I f I have t he t i me l ef t
over. ( Angri st and Al mqui s t , 1975)
I t i s har dl y s ur pr i s i ng t hat wo me n f rom s uc h f ami l i es mi g ht f i nd i t e s pe c i al l y
di ffi cul t t o t hi nk of t he ms e l v e s i n a c ar eer out s i de t he home . Ho we v e r , as we wi l l
see, t here are pe opl e wh o have ov e r c ome e v e n mor e ser i ous di f f i cul t i es.
Get t i ng Credent i al s
Suppo s e t hat a wo ma n s ur vi ves or e s c a pe s ear l y di s c our a g e me nt and de c i de s
t o obt ai n pr of es s i onal t rai ni ng. ( Some d o a b o u t one P h . D. i n 1 0 i s e ar ne d by a
f emal e. ) No w s he f aces anot her hur dl e. I n pr of essi onal s chool s he i s l i ke l y t o f eel
i sol at ed and unwa nt e d. He r e are s ome e x pe r i e nc e s r epor t ed by s ucces s f ul wo me n .
[ The y ] we r e i nt e r v i e wi ng gr aduat e st udent s i n t he pol i t i cal s c i e nc e depart -
ment . T h e pr of essor t her e sai d t o me : " We l l I gues s we are goi ng t o have
t o t ake y ou. We don' t l i ke ol der wo me n , we don' t t hi nk y o u are wor t h our
i nve s t me nt , but t hi s i s a state s chool , y o u have t he gr ades and y o u have t he
l et t ers of r e c omme nda t i on, s o we are goi ng t o have t o t ake y o u . "
Tha t wa s di s c our agi ng, so I wa l k e d across t he st reet t o t he s oc i ol ogy
de pa r t me nt and as ked i f t hey had a gr aduat e advi sor .
T h e y sai d: " No , but Dr . Da l t on wi l l t al k t o y o u . "
Wh e n I we n t i n and pr e s e nt e d my c r edent i al s , he sai d: " Y o u k n o w y o u
ha v e t o t ake st at i st i cs. "
I sai d: " Y e s , I under s t and t hat . "
T h e n he as ked: " Y o u k no w wha t get t i ng a Ph. D. i s l i k e ? "
I sai d: " Y e s , I d o . "
He sai d, " We l l , y o u are wi l l i ng t o go t hr ough t hi s ? " I sai d, " Y e s . "
He sai d, " We l l , we are de l i g ht e d t o have y o u . "
An d I sai d, " We l l , I am ol d. "
An d he sai d, " Oh , no, no. ( He ha p p e ne d t o be t we nt y year s ol der
t han I) Yo u are not ol d. " I wa s af rai d t o me nt i on t hat I wa s a wo ma n.
So t he r eas on I am a s oci ol ogi s t t oday i s be c a us e t her e wa s sex di s-
cr i mi nat i on i n t he pol i t i cal s c i e nc e de par t me nt at UC L A , but not i n t he
s oc i ol ogy depar t ment . ( Cant or, 1974)
A phys i c i s t r epor t s:
Dur i ng my first year of gr aduat e s chool , wha t s e e me d t o me l i ke an i nf i ni t e
numbe r of pr of essor s, t e a c hi ng assi st ant s, and c ol l e a g ue s , none of wh o m
we r e wo me n , t ol d me t hat wo me n can' t t hi nk anal yt i cal l y and I must ,
t her ef or e, be hus ba nd hunt i ng. T h e r esul t ant di s c our a g e me nt wa s as great
as or gr eat er t han any I ' ve k no wn s i nc e; he nc e t he sol i d det er mi nat i on
wi t h wh i c h I e me r g e d wi t h my P h . D . . . . I t n e e d e d t o be sol i d, be c a us e i t
s e e ms t hat a wo ma n i n phy s i c s mus t be at l east t wi c e as de t e r mi ne d as a
man wi t h t he s ame c o mpe t e nc e , i n or der t o a c hi e v e as mu c h as he doe s .
( Kunds i n, 1 974)
A mat hemat i c i an r ec ount s :
As a wo ma n ma t h e ma t i c i a n a mat hemat i c al l o g i c i a n my exi s t enc e
appar ent l y r ef ut es a c o mmo nl y he l d c onvi c t i on. I t i s ge ne r al l y b e l i e v e d
t hat a wo ma n i s not l ogi cal , but acts on t he basi s of i nt ui t i on al one . . .
Thi s poi nt of v i e w, s o pr e v a l e nt dur i ng t he fi fti es and ear l y si xt i es, was
r ei nf or c ed wh e n I we n t f rom an al l - f emal e e nv i r onme nt t o an al l - mal e
e nv i r onme nt wh e n I e nr ol l e d i n Har var d Uni ver s i t y Gr a dua t e Sc hool . I
r ecal l v e r y v i v i dl y my first day i n cl ass: t hr ee seat s i n f ront of me , t hr ee
seat s i n ba c k of me , and t wo seat s on ei t her si de we r e l ef t vacant . I wa s a
c ompl e t e par i ah i n t hat soci al set t i ng. T h e r eas on wa s qui t e s i mpl e. T h e
me n we r e pos i t i ve l y una bl e t o i nt eract wi t h me . T h e y we r e a c c us t ome d t o
dat i ng gi rl s and t al ki ng t o t he m about s we e t t hi ngs and e v e n s pe aki ng t o
t he m a bout mor e i nt el l ect ual subj ect s s uc h as pol i t i cs, hi st ory, and soci ol -
ogy. But t o c onv e r s e about a pur e l y ma s c ul i ne s ubj ect s uc h as phys i c s or
mat hemat i c s as one e qua l t o anot her wa s s ome t hi ng t he y had not pr evi -
ous l y e x pe r i e nc e d . . .
My fi rst c o l l o qui um at Har var d Uni ver s i t y wa s a me mor a bl e event .
T h e t ea, wh i c h p r e c e d e d t he act ual l ec t ur e, wa s he l d i n t he l i brary and wa s
a rat her f ormal affair. As I ent er ed, al l e y e s sank l o we r i nt o t he t eac ups i n
a gr eat ef f ort not t o s e e m t o not i ce me . Ne e dl e s s t o say, no one t al ked t o me
at al l . At t he e nd of t he t ea t he c hai r man f l i pped t he l i ght s wi t c h up and
d o wn as a si gnal for t he c ol l oqui um t o be g i n. As he di d so he t ur ned t o me
and sai d, wi t h a t wi nkl e i n hi s e y e , " Yo ur pr e s e nc e i s not e d he r e . "
( Kunds i n, 1974)
Yo ur p r e s e nc e i s not e d h e r e . "
Cur r ent l y, c ondi t i ons are far f rom i deal for t he c r eat i ve wo ma n. Ho we v e r , we
don' t wa nt t o g i v e t he i mpr e s s i on t hat t her e has b e e n no pr ogr es s . Thi ng s ha v e b e e n
wor s e. Mar y Some r v i l l e b e c a me a sci ent i st i n Eng l a nd i n t he 1800' s, but she had
t o put up wi t h a l ot t o do it.
On e day Ma r y s aw a ma g a z i ne i n wh i c h she f ound an al ge br a pr obl e m. She
y e a r ne d t o k n o w wha t t he X' s and Y' s me a n t s h e had ne v e r hear d of
a l g e b r a a n d no one c oul d t el l her anyt hi ng mor e. He r r e s c ue c a me by
ac c i dent : s he ov e r he a r d a pai nt er t el l i ng pe o pl e t o st udy Eu c l i d for per -
s pec t i ve and mat hemat i c s . She k ne w, t hen, she n e e d e d " E u c l i d " b u t
soci al mor e s f or bade a y o u ng l ady of 16 t o go t o a books e l l e r . She f ound a
man wh o c oul d do for her wha t she c oul d not do hersel f : b u y Euc l i d for her
and he l p her wi t h pr obl e ms . But she ran i nt o oppos i t i on at home . She sat
up l at e r e adi ng Eu c l i d and t he servant s c ompl a i ne d about h o w ma ny can-
dl es she wa s us i ng. He r c andl e s we r e t aken away , s o s he wa s f orced t o
me mor i z e Euc l i d. She wo r k e d pr obl e ms i n her mi nd e v e r y ni ght bef or e
goi ng t o s l e e p. He r f at her wa r ne d t hat t he y wo u l d have t o st op Mar y' s
st udi es ' or we shal l ha v e Mar y i n a strait j ac ke t one of t hes e days . ' For
wo me n i n t he 1800' s i n Eng l a nd, t oo mu c h l ear ni ng wa s c ons i de r e d a ver y
danger ous t hi ng. ( Tot h and Tot h, 1978)
Thi s i s har dl y t he sort of wa r m, ent husi ast i c s uppor t wh i c h a t al ent ed but
uncer t ai n pe r s on ma y n e e d t o c ont i nue on a di f f i cul t pat h.
Marri age and Creati vi ty
Si nc e 93 pe r c e nt of me n and 95 pe r c e nt of wo me n marry, mos t cr eat i ve pe o pl e
c o mbi ne c ar e e r and mar r i age. A st udy by B. W. Ha y e s (1980) s ugges t s t hat i t i s mu c h
eas i er for me n t o c o mb i ne c ar eer and mar r i age t han i t i s for wo me n t o do so. She
c ompa r e d 1 7 4 me n wi t h 1 7 4 wo me n l i s t ed i n Who's Who. Ta b l e 2 s hows t he
pe r c e nt a g e of t he s e me n and wo me n wh o had e v e r mar r i ed.
Tabl e 2. Percent Marri ed in Who's Who Sampl e
[Data compiled by B. W. Hayes (1980).]
me n wo me n
s i ngl e 9. 7% 3 7 . 9 %
e v e r
mar r i ed 90. 3% 6 2 . 1 %
Suc c es s f ul me n mar r y about as of t en as me n i n t he gener al popul at i on, but
s ucces s f ul wo me n are mor e t han s e v e n t i mes as l i ke l y t o r emai n s i ngl e as ot her
wo me n .
Ta b l e 3 s hows t hat s uc c es s f ul mar r i ed me n have about t he s ame numbe r of
c hi l dr e n as mar r i ed me n i n t he gener al popul at i on.
Tabl e 3. Percent of Marri ages in Who's Who Sampl e wi th Vari ous Numbers of Chil dren
[Data compiled by B. W. Hayes (1980).]
No. Chi l dr e n Me n Wo me n
0
1
2
3
4
5 or mor e
9 %
1 2 %
2 9 %
1 8 %
1 5 %
7%
3 4 %
2 1 %
1 9 %
1 6 %
7%
2 %
Av e r a g e no. c hi l dr e n
pe r f ami l y
2. 48 1.46
Suc c e s s f ul mar r i ed wo me n , ho we v e r , have f e we r c hi l dr e n t han ot her mar r i ed
wo me n . Of al l t he wo me n i n t he Who's Who s ampl e, 50 pe r c e nt are chi l dl es s . A
si mi l ar pat t er n i s f ound i n wo me n wh o ha v e Ph. D. ' s . On l y 45 pe r c e nt of wo me n
wi t h doct or at es are mar r i ed; 38 pe r c e nt ha v e ne v e r b e e n ( Ast i n, 1969). Of t he
f emal e Ph. D. ' s wh o are mar r i ed, 80 pe r c e nt are mar r i ed t o pr of es s i onal me n, and 30
pe r c e nt ha v e no c hi l dr e n ( Si mon, Cl ar k, and Ga l wa y , 1967) . Thi s i s t wi c e t he
c hi l dl es s rate for t he ge ne r al popul at i on.
Wo me n , t hen, s e e m t o have mor e di f f i cul t y t han me n i n c o mbi ni ng marri age
wi t h a s uc c es s f ul car eer . Wh y s houl d t hi s be s o?
I ma g i ne t hat y o u ha v e j us t b e g u n your car eer as a mi c r obi ol ogi s t at a pr es-
t i gi ous uni ver s i t y. Yo u wo r k f ul l - t i me, are mar r i ed, and ha v e a y o ung chi l d. Your
bos s has a g r e e d t o pa y y our e x pe ns e s for a we e k - l o ng c onf e r e nc e that wi l l al l ow y o u
t o k e e p abr eas t of r e c e nt de v e l o pme nt s i n y our f i el d. Wha t do y ou do?
I f y o u are a man, y o u wo u l d pr obabl y say t o yoursel f , " What ' s t he pr o bl e m? I' m
g oi ng ! " But i f y ou' r e a wo ma n, t he de c i s i on wo u l d not be s o s i mpl e. Mos t l i kel y i t
wo u l d i nv ol v e j ug g l i ng a l ot of factors bot h i n real i t y and i n your mi nd. Wh o wo ul d
do t he c o o k i ng and wa s hi ng ? Wo u l d y o u be abl e t o f i nd a de qua t e chi l d- car e ar-
r ange me nt s for an ent i r e we e k ? Wo u l d y o u be abl e t o l e a v e y our c hi l d for a who l e
we e k wi t hout wor r y i ng about t he c hi l d or about t he pos s i bi l i t y t hat y o u aren' t a
good mot he r for doi ng so? Ma ny mar r i ed wo me n wh o f ace j us t t hi s t ype of si t uat i on
f i nd t hat a s uppor t i ve hus ba nd i s a t r e me ndous asset . In t hi s si t uat i on, a s uppor t i ve
hus ba nd ma y be one wh o wi l l t el l you, " Of cour s e y o u s houl d go. I' ll t ake care of
t he b a b y , " or, " Gr e a t i dea. I' l l go wi t h y ou. Let ' s cal l your f ol ks (or mi ne) and s e e
i f t he y can c o me and stay wi t h t he ba by for t hat we e k . " A non- s uppor t i ve hus band
mi ght say s ome t hi ng l i ke, " We l l , your wo r k i ng i s one t hi ng, but b e i ng gone for a
wh o l e we e k and l e a v i ng t he ba by he r e wi t h me i s anot her , " or, " I don' t t hi nk it' s
a good i dea for y o u t o g o . "
Mar r i ed f emal e Ph. D. ' s , e v e n t hos e wi t h no c hi l dr e n t ypi c al l y s pe nd about 50
hour s a we e k doi ng hous e wor k. Mar r i ed mal e Ph. D. ' s , e v e n t hos e wi t h c hi l dr en,
s pe nd l ess t han 1 0 hour s a we e k on hous e hol d c hor es (data c o mpi l e d by Gr i bbe n
and pr e s e nt e d by Sel l s and Pat t er son i n Ros s i and Ca l d e r wo o d [ 1 973] , pp. 79- 91) .
Pe o pl e wh o wo r k 100 hour s a we e k on r es ear c h and 50 mor e on ho us e wo r k won' t
s ur vi ve v e r y l ong, l et al one wi n a No b e l pr i z e!
Ab o ut e i g ht pe r c e nt of wo me n Ph. D. ' s al l ow a t i me l aps e of ov e r 27 years
b e t we e n t he B. A. and t he Ph . D. On l y s e v e n pe r c e nt f i ni sh i n t he nor mal f our- year
pe r i od, wh i l e t he maj ori t y of me n do. On t he ave r age , wo me n Ph. D. ' s obt ai n t hei r
de g r e e s f i ve year s l at er t han me n ( Ast i n, 1969). Thi s me a ns t hat , on t he aver age,
wo me n Ph. D. ' s ha v e f i ve year s l ess t han me n t o de v ot e t o r es ear c h. On l y 81 pe r c e nt
of f emal e Ph. D. ' s wor k f ul l - t i me, as c o mpa r e d wi t h 98 pe r c e nt of mal e Ph. D. ' s , and
21 pe r c e nt of wo me n Ph. D. ' s i nt er r upt t hei r l i f e' s wo r k for an av e r age of 1 4 mont hs
( Ast i n, 1969) .
T h e s e di f f er enc es b e t we e n mal e and f emal e Ph. D. ' s are not bi z ar r e or unex-
pl ai nabl e. T h e y are a c c ount e d for by t he f act t hat wo me n t ake t i me off t o have and
care for ba bi e s . Of c our s e, me n share i n ha v i ng c hi l dr e n, but i t rarel y i nt errupt s
t hei r car eer .
Unt i l no w, we ha v e b e e n di s c us s i ng factors wi t hi n mar r i age wh i c h can i mpe de
t he car eer s of c r eat i ve wo me n . Some t i me s , t hough, mar r i age can st op a car eer dead!
He r e are s ome e x pe r i e nc e s r epor t ed by uns uc c es s f ul wo me n i n t he s t udy by Bo nd
and Ha y e s ( 1978) :
My hus ba nd wa s i n f avor of my r et ur ni ng t o wor k, but n o w he i s
ambi val ent . He f eel s i t i s t oo t i ri ng for me and t hat i f we n e e d mor e mone y ,
he s houl d get a s e c ond j ob. ( Gi nz be r g and Yo ha l e m, 1966)
I c oul d not c ompl e t e my doct or at e be c a us e wh e n my hus ba nd c om-
pl e t e d hi s Ph. D. , he f ound a j o b i n anot her ci t y and I wa s obl i g e d t o t ake
ov e r t he care of hi s f our - year - ol d c hi l d by a pr e v i ous mar r i age.
( Gi nz be r g and Yo ha l e m, 1966)
Al l of my cr edi t s for t he Ph. D. we r e c o mpl e t e d and qual i f yi ng exams
pas s e d by 1 952. Al l t hat had t o be done wa s t he t hes i s . Ho we v e r , my
hus ba nd had obt ai ne d hi s Ph . D. and wa s l e a v i ng Co l u mb i a for post-
gr aduat e wo r k at Cal i f or ni a I nst i t ut e of Te c hno l o g y . Of c our s e, I we nt wi t h
hi m. ( Gi nz be r g and Yo ha l e m, 1966)
I n her book, Silences, Ol s e n ( 1978) make s a v e r y powe r f ul case t hat ma ny
cr eat i ve wo me n wr i t er s ha v e b e e n s i l e nc e d by t he de ma nds pl a c e d on t he m by
t hei r rol es as wi v e s and mot her s . He r e she de s c r i be s her o wn c i r c ums t anc es as a
wr i t er and mot her :
Ci r c ums t a nc e s for s us t ai ned cr eat i on are al mos t i mpos s i bl e . No t be c a us e
t he capaci t i es t o cr eat e no l onge r exi st , or t he n e e d ( t hough for a whi l e as
i n any f ul l nes s of l i f e t he ne e d may be obs c ur ed) , b u t . . . t he n e e d cannot
be first. It c an ha v e at be s t onl y part sel f, part t i me . . . Mot he r hood me ans
b e i ng i nst ant l y i nt er r upt i bl e, r e s pons i ve , r es pons i bl e. Chi l dr e n n e e d one
now ( and r e me mb e r , i n our soci et y, t he f ami l y mus t of t en try t o be t he
c ent er for l ov e and heal t h t he out s i de wor l d i s not). T h e v e r y f act t hat t hes e
are ne e ds of l ov e , not dut y, t hat one f eel s t he m as one' s sel f; that there i s
no one else to be responsible for these needs, gi ves t he m pr i mac y. It is
di st ract i on, not medi t at i on, t hat b e c o me s habi t ual ; i nt er r upt i on, not con-
t i nui t y; s pas modi c , not const ant , t oi l . Wor k i nt er r upt ed, def er r ed, post -
po ne d ma ke s b l o c k a g e a t bes t , l es s er ac c ompl i s hme nt . Un u s e d capaci -
t i es at r ophy, c e a s e t o be .
For t he pr of es s i onal wo ma n wh o does marry, mar r yi ng s ome one wi t h si mi l ar
goal s, i nt er est s, and oc c upat i onal status i s e x t r e me l y i mport ant . Do i n g so i ncr eas es
t he l i kel i hood t hat he r par t ner wi l l under s t and, ac c ept , and e nc our a g e wha t she i s
t r yi ng t o do. Me n wh o are al so e ng a g e d i n cr eat i ve pr of es s i onal wor k are i n a good
posi t i on t o r eal i z e its i nhe r e nt v a l ue and t hat i t r equi r es l ots of t i me and har d wor k.
E v e n wi t h a s uppor t i ve hus ba nd wh o shares c hor es and c hi l dc ar e, i t sti l l i sn' t
eas y for wo me n i n our s oc i et y t o c o mbi ne a car eer , mar r i age, and a f ami l y. ( Me n,
we mi ght not e, ha v e b e e n do i ng s o for years. ) Chi l dc a r e c a n be ve r y e x pe ns i v e .
Some e mpl oy e r s sti l l ha v e ne pot i s m rul es wh i c h pr e v e nt a hus ba nd and wi f e f rom
wor ki ng at t he s ame i nst i t ut i on. We l l - me a ni ng pe o pl e ma y sti l l t el l car eer wo me n
that t hey are r ui ni ng t hei r c hi l dr en' s l i ves . I t i sn' t e a s y b u t i t c an be done . Of t he
1 7 pr of essi onal wo me n i n our st udy, 1 6 st at ed t hat t he y we r e gl ad t he y c hos e t o
c ombi ne a c ar eer wi t h mar r i age and a f ami l y, and t hat t he y we r e ha ppy wi t h t hei r
l i ves. Of t he 1 4 nonpr of es s i onal wo me n i n our st udy, ni ne r epor t ed di ssat i sf act i on
wi t h t hei r l i v e s .
Summary
Hi st or i cal l y, wo me n ha v e b e e n mu c h l ess cr eat i ve t han me n. Thi s doe s not
me a n t hat wo me n are l es s c r eat i ve t han me n by nat ur e. Ou r cul t ur e pr ov i de s far
mor e oppor t uni t y and e nc o ur a g e me nt t o me n t o be cr eat i ve t han t o wo me n .
1 . Ou r c ul t ur e di s c our ages wo me n f rom t aki ng an i nt er est i n s c i enc e- r el at ed
f i el ds and e nc our a g e s t he m t o be i nt er es t ed i n ho me ma k i ng .
2. Ou r c ul t ur e t ends t o unde r mi ne t he c onf i de nc e of wo me n i n t hei r abi l i t y t o
c o mpe t e i n cer t ai n cr eat i ve f i el ds.
3. Th e r e are r el at i vel y f e w f emal e r ol e mode l s i n c r eat i ve f i el ds.
4. Ma l e s ma y r es ent and di s cr i mi nat e agai nst f emal es i n pr of es s i onal e duc a-
t i on and at wor k.
5. I n our c ul t ur e i t i s mu c h mor e di f f i cul t for wo me n t o mi x mar r i age and car eer
t han i t i s for me n. Thi s i s d ue t o t he as s umpt i ons t hat dome s t i c dut i es s uc h
as c ooki ng and c hi l d care are mor e t he r es pons i bi l i t y of wo me n t han me n,
and t hat t he hus ba nd' s c ar eer i s mor e i mpor t ant t han t he wi f e ' s and, t her e-
f ore, any conf l i ct of i nt er es t mus t be r e s ol v e d i n f avor of t he hus band' s
car eer .
T h e s e f act ors, t aken t oget her , ma y we l l ac c ount for t he o bs e r v e d di f f er ences i n
cr eat i vi t y b e t we e n me n and wo me n .
How Social Condi ti ons Affect Creativity
227
THE CREATIVE ACCOMPLI SHMENT OF JEWS
I n t he we s t e r n wor l d, J e ws const i t ut e a ve r y smal l pr opor t i on of t he gener al
popul at i on (l ess t han one pe r c e nt i n Eur o pe and l ess t han t hr ee pe r c e nt i n t he
Uni t e d St at es) . T h e y const i t ut e a mu c h l arger pr opor t i on of t he cr eat i ve popul at i on.
Ta b l e 4 s hows t hi s cl ear l y.
Wh y are J e ws s o c r e at i ve ? We b e l i e v e t hat t he pl ac e t o l ook for t he ans we r i s
i n t he J e wi s h f ami l y.
J e ws ha v e a l o we r di v or c e rat e, hi gher i nc ome , and f e we r c hi l dr e n t han ot her
pe o pl e ( Gol ds t e i n and Gol ds c he i de r , 1968). Mos t Je ws l i ve i n ur ban areas. Al l of
t he s e f a c t or s s t a bl e ho me s wi t h bot h par ent s pr es ent , hi gh i nc ome , smal l f ami l y
s i ze, and l i v i ng i n an ur ban e nv i r onme nt are as s oci at ed wi t h hi gh I Q ( Li ps et and
La dd, 1 974; Pat ai and Wi ng , 1 975) . Ho we v e r , t her e are t wo f actors whi c h we
b e l i e v e are mor e i mpor t ant t han al l of t hes e. T h e first i s J e wi s h r e s pe c t for schol ar-
s hi p, and t he s e c ond i s t he i mpor t anc e of t he c hi l d i n t he J e wi s h f ami l y.
Tabl e 4. Accompl i shment s of Jews
[Based on data from Arieti, 1976; Ladd and Lipset, 1975; Lipset and Ladd, 1971, 1974; Patai and Wing, 1975; and Sherman, 1965.]
In the U.S., where less than 3% of the population are Jews:
1 . J e ws ha v e wo n 2 7 % of No be l Pr i z es a wa r de d t o Ame r i c a ns .
2. J e wi s h vi ol i n vi r t uosos occur at 12 t o 25 t i mes e xpe c t anc y.
3. 1 6 % of J e ws are pr of es s i onal s , c ompa r e d t o 1 0 % of t he ent i r e popul at i on.
4. 1 0 % of al l c ol l e g e f acul t y me mbe r s are J e ws ; 1 9 % of f acul t y me mb e r s at el i t e
c ol l e g e s are Je ws .
5. 7 0 % of J e wi s h f acul t y me mb e r s are at r es ear c h- or i ent ed uni ver s i t i es .
6. 3 2 % of J e ws are at t he hi ghes t qual i t y uni ver s i t i es , c ompa r e d t o 9% of non-
J e wi s h f acul t y.
7. 3 3 % of J e wi s h f acul t y me mbe r s have over 1 0 publ i c at i ons , c ompa r e d t o 1 1 % of
Cat hol i c and 1 5 % of Prot est ant f acul t y me mbe r s .
8. 2 8 % of J e wi s h f acul t y me mb e r s are ful l prof essors and at a y o ung e r age (38
ver s us 40) t han non- Jewi s h f acul t y.
9. 2 5 % of l aw prof essors are Jewi s h.
10. 2 2 % of me di c a l f acul t y are Jewi s h.
1 1 . 2 1 % of bi oc he mi s t r y f acul t y are Jewi s h.
In Europe, where less than 1% of the population are Jews:
1. Sart on' s l i st of schol ar s i n Eur o pe t o 1400 A. D. l i s t ed 1 0. 6% J e ws t h r e e t i mes
t hei r pr opor t i on i n Eur o pe at t he t i me.
2. Je ws ha v e wo n 1 6 % of al l No be l Pr i z es ( 1 901 - 1 972) and have wo n 6 0 % of t he
Pr i z es i n Ec o no mi c s , 2 4 % i n Phy s i ol ogy and Me d i c i ne , and 2 0 % i n Phys i cs .
T h e rati o of J e wi s h Laur eat es i s 28 t i mes gr eat er t han t he rest of t he wor l d
popul at i on.
3. I n pr e- Naz i Ge r ma ny , 2 5 % of mat hemat i c i ans , me di c a l r es ear cher s , and
phys i c i s t s we r e J e wi s h 3 0 t i mes t hei r popul at i on pr opor t i on.
4. I n Ital y i n t he 1930' s, 5 0 % of mat hemat i c i ans we r e Je wi s h.
5. I n 1 937, 9% of Sovi et schol ars we r e Jewi s h.
6. I n 1947, 1 6 % of St al i n s c i e nc e awar ds and 1 4 % of St al i n art and l i t erat ure
awar ds we nt t o Je ws .
7. 3 . 5 % of Br i t i sh f acul t y are Je wi s h, al t hough Je ws const i t ut e l ess t han 1% of t he
Br i t i sh popul at i on ( 1965) .
8. 7% of me mb e r s of Bri t ai n' s sci ent i f i c honor soci et y, t he Royal Ac a de my of
Sc i e nc e , are J e wi s h ( 1 971 ) .
mot he r st and by and wa t c h her c hi l d, wi t h s uc h a " g o o d he a d, " go strai ght
t o he l l ? ( Sarason, 1973)
T h e c ha nne l l i ng of t he chi l d' s e ne r gi e s t owar d schol ar l y pur sui t s and a wa y
f rom di s t r act i ng act i vi t i es s e e ms t o wor k. T h e f ol l owi ng f i gur es, ba s e d on dat a from
L a d d and Li ps e t ( 1 975) and She r ma n ( 1965) , s how t hat a l ar ger pe r c e nt age of Jews
i n t he U. S. go t o c ol l e g e t han non- Jews , and wh e n t he y get t her e t he y per f or m bet t er
t han non- Je ws .
1. 62 out of e v e r y 100 c ol l e ge - age J e ws are i n c ol l e ge , c ompa r e d t o 27 out of e ve r y
100 non- Jews .
2. J e wi s h c ol l e g e st udent s are pr opor t i onat el y i n bet t er s chool s t han non- Jewi s h
st udent s.
3. Je ws have bet t er gr ade- poi nt aver ages t han non- Jews .
4. Je ws are i n Phi Be t a Ka ppa at t wi c e t hei r under gr aduat e pr opor t i on.
I n our s oci et y, s c hol ar s hi p i s an i mpor t ant rout e t o s uc c es s . Ad v a n c e d educ a-
t i on of t en l e ads t o a pr of essi onal car eer , a good i nc ome , and an oppor t uni t y t o do
cr eat i ve wor k. Tr adi t i onal l y, s chol ar s hi p has b e e n hi ghl y r e s pe c t e d by Je ws , and
t he J e wi s h f ami l y has b e e n v e r y ef f ect i ve i n t e ac hi ng t hi s v a l ue t o t he J e wi s h chi l d.
We b e l i e v e t hat i t i s by t r ansmi t t i ng r es pec t for s chol ar s hi p t o t he y o ung t hat Je wi s h
cul t ur e has s u c c e e d e d i n pr oduc i ng s uc h a l ar ge numb e r of c r eat i ve pe opl e .
THE ASIANS
As i ans are anot her hi ghl y cr eat i ve mi nor i t y wi t hi n Ame r i c a n cul t ur e. Whi l e
t he y const i t ut e l ess t han one pe r c e nt of our popul at i on, t he y are one pe r c e nt of t he
under gr aduat e popul at i on and t wo pe r c e nt of t he gr aduat e popul at i on (Ki t ano,
1976) . Four As i an Ame r i c a ns have wo n No b e l pr i zes (all i n Phys i c s ) . A r emar kabl e
numb e r of As i an Ame r i c a ns have b e c o me out s t andi ng mus i c i ans . Ma n y As i an
Ame r i c a ns are pr o f e s s i o na l s 2 1 pe r c e nt of Japanes e ma l e s and 30 pe r c e nt of
Ch i ne s e ma l e s , as c o mpa r e d t o 1 5 pe r c e nt of non- As i an Ame r i c a n mal e s ( Al mqui st ,
1979) .
Th e r e are ma ny si mi l ar i t i es b e t we e n As i an and J e wi s h s ubc ul t ur es i n our
soci et y. Bot h ha v e an anc i ent her i t age wh i c h e s t e e ms s c hol ar s hi p and a st abl e
f ami l y e nv i r onme nt wh i c h e nc our age s c hi l dr e n t o pur s ue s chol ar l y car eer s .
For t he J e ws , s c hol ar s hi p has st rong r el i gi ous over t ones . For t he As i ans , i t has
st rong mor al c onne c t i ons .
For ma ny c ent ur i es [the Chi ne s e ] r e v e r e d wr i t t en char act er s, whi c h t hey
be l i e v e t o ha v e b e e n c r eat ed by past s ages . The r e we r e ma ny ' s oci et i es for
s avi ng paper s wi t h wr i t t en char act er s. ' T h e s e s oci et i es e mp l o y e d col l ec-
tors wh o r oa me d ar ound t own, wi t h forks i n hand and bas ket s on t hei r
bac ks , gat her i ng s uc h scat t er ed pi e c e s . T h e bi t s we r e t hen bur ne d at t he
l ocal Conf uc i a n t e mpl e . I t wa s b e l i e v e d that a per s on wh o us e d i ns c r i bed
paper s for t oi l et pur pos e s wo u l d be st ruck de a d by l i ght ni ng. An d one wh o
ac c i dent al l y s t e ppe d on a book mus t pi c k i t up and pl ac e i t on hi s he ad
mome nt ar i l y for pr opi t i at i on. ( Hs u, 1970)
T h e ul t i mat e a c hi e v e me nt wa s wi s do m, and t he Conf uc i a n wa y t o wi s do m was
by s t udyi ng. As i an st udent s we r e e x pos e d t o st ori es of schol ar s wh o l et not hi ng
i nt erf ere wi t h t hei r des i r e t o l ear n: " t he ma n wh o put a r ope ar ound hi s ne c k and
t i ed i t t o t he c e i l i ng t o k e e p f rom f al l i ng a s l e e p or t he man wh o us e d a cagef ul of
f i ref l i es t o s t udy at ni ght or t he ma n wh o pour e d i ce wat e r on hi s b o d y i n wi nt er t o
stay a wa k e t o s t udy " ( Dor e , 1 965; Hor i nouc hi , 1967) . Whi l e We s t e r ne r s may f i nd
t hes e st ori es e x c e s s i v e or g r ue s ome , t he y i l l ust rat e t he de g r e e t o whi c h schol ar shi p
wa s e s t e e me d by As i ans .
230
The Compl et e Problem Sol ver
The Family
As i ans ha v e t he l o we s t di vor c e rate (1. 6 per cent ) of any gr oup i n t he Uni t e d
St at es. T h e y ha v e a hi gh mar r i age rate, hi gh ho me owne r s hi p, hi gh i nc ome , and
hi gh oc c upat i onal status. Un e mp l o y me n t i s rare and f ami l y s i ze i s smal l . Thi s
pat t ern r e s e mbl e s t hat f ound a mong Je ws .
Re s pe c t for l e ar ni ng i s i nt e r wov e n wi t h r es pec t for t he f ami l y and for t he
Conf uc i a n v a l ue s of di l i g e nc e and hard wor k. Co ns i de r t he first admoni t i on i n a
Japanes e s c hool :
To be bor n huma n and not be abl e t o wr i t e i s t o be l ess t han human.
I l l i t er acy i s a f orm of bl i ndne s s . I t br i ngs s hame on your t eac her , s ha me on
y our par ent s and s hame on yoursel f . T h e hear t of a c hi l d of t hr ee st ays wi t h
hi m ti l l he i s a hundr e d as t he pr over b says. De t e r mi ne t o s uc c e e d, s t udy
wi t h al l y our mi ght , ne v e r f or get t i ng t he s hame of f ai l ure.
( Dor e, 1965)
T h e pr e c e pt wa s al so t aught at home : " By l ear ni ng we l l , y o u wi l l honor your f ami l y
n a me " ( Hor i nouc hi , 1967) . On e y o ung ma n r ec al l ed:
Wh e n I wa s s ent t o s chool I wa s e x pe c t e d t o try my be s t and t o get good
g r a d e s t h e r e wa s no ques t i on about t hi s i n my or my par ent s ' mi nd. I
gues s it' s j us t l i ke my mot her and f a t he r i f Mo m i r oned a shi rt, she had
t o do be s t ; i f my Da d d u g a di t ch he had t o do i t j us t ri ght . So di d al l of t he
ot her Ni s e i ki ds . I gue s s t hat ' s wh y so ma ny of us we r e on t he Honor Rol l .
( Ki t ano, 1976)
Li k e t he Je ws , As i ans e nc our age s ome act i vi t i es and di s c our age ot her s. T h e
As i an c o mmuni t y r ei nf or ces t he f ami l y i n enf or c i ng its val ue s . On e ma n r ecal l s h o w
t he c o mmuni t y deal t wi t h an i nst ance of de l i nque nc y :
I k n e w t hes e t wo br ot her s wh o we r e pret t y wi l d. T h e y wo u l d ge t dr unk . . .
we r e a l wa y s f i ght i ng, a l wa y s i n t r oubl e and we r e unc ont r ol l abl e. Fi nal l y,
t hei r f at her c a me t o t al k t o my f at her and ot her Japanes e f ami l i es i n t he
ne i g hbor hood . . . al l a g r e e d t hat t hes e boy s wo u l d hurt t he r eput at i on of
t he ot her Japanes e and pr ovi de poor mode l s for t he y o ung e r boy s . . . s o
e v e n t houg h t he br ot her s we r e al r eady y o u ng adul t s and out of hi gh school ,
t he y we r e s ent ba c k t o Japan i n 1 937. As far as I know, t he y ne v e r c a me
ba c k t o t he Uni t e d St at es. ( Ki t ano, 1 976)
T h e As i ans have t he l o we s t c r i me rate i n t he Uni t e d St at es. I t i s pr obabl y no
ac c i de nt t hat t he y ha v e t he l owe s t school dr opout rate of any gr oup i n t he count r y.
Dr o p p i n g out of hi gh s chool " i s c ons i de r e d a di s gr ac e i n an As i an c o mmu ni t y "
( Hor i nouc hi , 1967) .
Concl usi on
As i ans , l i ke Je ws , f orm a r emar kabl y cr eat i ve s ubc ul t ur e i n Ame r i c a . Li k e t he
Je ws , As i ans ha v e an anc i ent her i t age whi c h pl ac es a hi gh v a l ue on s chol ar s hi p
and, l i ke t he Je ws , t he y pr ov i de a st abl e f ami l y e nv i r onme nt i n wh i c h c hi l dr e n are
e nc our a g e d t o wo r k har d and t o pur s ue schol ar l y car eer s. Fur t her , i n bot h gr oups
devi at i ons f rom t hi s i deal pat t ern, e. g. , dr oppi ng out of s c hool , are ac t i vel y di s-
c our aged.
BLACKS
Th e r e are s ever al f actors wh i c h can s er i ous l y t hwar t c r eat i ve effort:
1. l ack of e duc a t i on
2. l ack of oppor t uni t y
3. l ack of s uppor t
How Social Condi ti ons Affect Creativity 23 7
Unf or t unat el y, bl acks have b e e n t he vi c t i m of al l t hr ee. Phys i c al l y r e mov e d
agai nst t hei r wi l l f rom t hei r nat i ve l and, t hey we r e ma de t o s er ve a soci et y whi c h
wo u l d ne i t he r t e ac h t he m h o w t o b e c o me its me mb e r s , nor al l ow t he m t o ret ai n
t hei r her i t age. As a c o ns e q ue nc e , bl ac ks ha v e b e e n do ubl y de ni e d a cul t ur e and
cul t ur al v a l ue s .
Inadequate Education
Wh e n t he s l aves we r e f r eed, t he y we r e bar r ed by l aw f rom ma ny j obs and from
mos t s chool s . Ea g e r t o l ear n, t he y set up t hei r o wn s c hool s , but t hes e we r e gener -
al l y staffed by bl ac ks wi t h l i t t l e mor e e duc at i on t han t hei r pupi l s .
Se g r e g a t e d s chool s we r e t he nor m unt i l t he Supr e me Cour t r ul ed i n 1 954 that
separ at e i s not e qual . I t sti l l i sn' t . Mos t bl ac ks sti l l at t end s e gr e gat e d school s. I n
Al abama, Loui s i ana, and Mi s s i s s i ppi , l ess t han one pe r c e nt of bl ac k st udent s at t end
s chool wi t h whi t e s ( Pi nkne y, 1969). I n t he Nor t h i n 1 966, 65 pe r c e nt of bl ac k first
graders at t e nde d s chool s wh i c h we r e 90 t o 100 pe r c e nt bl ac k ( U. S. De pa r t me nt of
Heal t h, Educ a t i on, and Wel f ar e, 1966). About 60 pe r c e nt of bl a c k c ol l e g e st udent s
at t end bl ac k c ol l e g e s , of wh i c h t her e are 1 23. Ho we v e r , onl y 63 pe r c e nt of t he m are
ac c r e di t e d ( U. S. De pa r t me nt of Co mme r c e , 1966) . I n f i ve s out her n states i n 1954,
t her e we r e 1.8 books pe r pupi l i n bl ac k s chool l i br ar i es, but 4. 8 pe r pupi l i n whi t e
s c hool l i br ar i es ( As hmor e, 1954) . I n bl ac k hi gh s chool s , i n 1 966, 20 pe r c e nt we r e
wi t hout phy s i c s e q u i p me n t c o mpa r e d t o si x pe r c e nt of whi t e s c hool s ( U. S. Depar t -
me nt of He al t h, Educ a t i on, and Wel f ar e, 1966).
Al t houg h onl y about 25 pe r c e nt of bl ac ks l i ve i n rural areas t oday, i n 1900, 90
pe r c e nt di d ( U. S. Bur e a u of t he Ce ns u s , 1966). Ma ny adul t bl ac ks at t e nde d a school
l i ke t he one de s c r i be d b e l o w i n an e xc e r pt f rom Growing Up in the Black Belt. And
i t i s not as t houg h ur ban bl ac ks ha v e i t any bet t er . Ful l y t wo- t hi r ds are me mbe r s of
t he l o we r cl ass and at t end pr e domi nat e l y bl ac k s chool s ( Pi nkne y, 1969).
It i s i n a di l api dat e d bui l di ng , onc e whi t e wa s he d, s t andi ng i n a r ocky f i el d
unf i t for cul t i vat i on. Dus t - c ov e r e d we e d s s pr ead a car pet al l ar ound, e x c e pt
for an u n e v e n , bar e ar ea on one si de wh i c h l ooks l i ke a bal l f i el d. Be hi nd
t he s c hool i s a smal l bui l di ng wi t h a br oke n, s aggi ng door. As we appr oach,
a ne r v ous mi ddl e - a g e d wo ma n c o me s t o t he door of t he s chool . She gr eet s
us i n a di s c our a g e d v oi c e mar r ed by a s pe e c h i mpe di me nt . Es c or t e d i ns i de,
we obs e r v e t hat t he br oke n b e nc he s are c r o wd e d t o t hr ee t i mes t hei r nor mal
capaci t y. On l y a f e w bat t er ed books are i n si ght , and we l ook i n vai n for
maps or chart s. We l ear n t hat f our gr ades are a s s e mbl e d he r e .
( Johnson, 1941)
I n t he f ace of al l t hi s , i t i s a t r i but e t o t he pe r s e v e r a nc e of bl ac k pe o pl e t hat t hey
have r e duc e d t hei r i l l i t er acy 70 pe r c e nt i n about 70 year s . Unf or t unat el y, t o be
cr eat i ve i n a t e c hnol og i c a l l y a dv a nc e d soci et y l i ke our s, t hat i s not good e noug h. To
c ompe t e for t he c r eat i ve oc c upat i ons , bl ac ks ne e d e duc at i on and t r ai ni ng equal t o
whi t e s . So far, s oc i et y has not pr ov i de d that.
Lack of Opport uni t y
Ma l c ol m X r e c ount e d i n hi s aut obi ogr aphy an al l t oo t ypi c al e x a mpl e :
I k no w t hat he [the t eac her ] pr obabl y me a nt we l l i n wha t he ha ppe ne d t o
advi s e me t hat day. I doubt t hat he me a nt any har m. I t wa s j us t i n hi s nat ure
as an Ame r i c a n whi t e man. I wa s one of hi s t op s t udent s , one of t he school ' s
t op s t u d e n t s b u t al l he c oul d s ee for me wa s t he ki nd of f ut ure ' i n your
pl ac e ' t hat al l whi t e pe o pl e s ee for bl ac k pe opl e .
He t ol d me , " Ma l c o l m, y o u ought t o be t hi nki ng about a car eer . Ha v e
y o u b e e n g i v i ng i t t ho ug ht ? "
T h e t rut h i s, I hadn' t . I ne v e r ha v e f i gur ed out wh y I t ol d hi m, " We l l ,
y e s , sir, I ' ve b e e n t hi nki ng I ' d l i ke t o be a l a wy e r . " La ns i ng cer t ai nl y had
no Ne g r o l a wy e r s o r doct ors e i t h e r i n t hos e days , t o hol d up an i mage
I mi ght ha v e as pi r ed to. Al l I r eal l y k n e w for cer t ai n wa s t hat a l a wy e r
di dn' t wa s h di s he s , as I wa s doi ng.
Mr. Os t r ows ki l ooke d s ur pr i s ed, I r e me mbe r , and l e a ne d ba c k i n hi s
chai r and c l a s pe d hi s hands b e hi nd hi s head. He ki nd of hal f - s mi l ed and
sai d, " Ma l c o l m, one of l i f e' s first ne e ds i s for us t o be real i st i c. Do n' t
mi s unde r s t and me , now. We al l he r e l i ke y ou, y o u k no w that. But y ou' v e
got t o be r eal i st i c about b e i ng a ni gger . A l a wy e r t h a t ' s no real i st i c goal
for a ni gger . Yo u n e e d t o t hi nk about s ome t hi ng y o u can be . You' r e good
wi t h y our h a n d s ma k i n g t hi ngs . Ev e r y b o d y admi r es y our c ar pent r y s hop
wor k. Wh y don' t y o u pl an on c ar pent r y? Pe o pl e l i ke y o u as a p e r s o n
y o u' d ge t al l ki nds of wo r k . "
T h e mor e I t hought af t erwards about wha t he sai d, t he mor e une a s y i t
ma de me . I t j us t k e pt t r eadi ng ar ound i n my mi nd.
Wha t ma de i t r eal l y be g i n t o di st ur b me wa s Mr . Os t r ows ki ' s adv i c e t o
ot hers i n my c l a s s a l l of t he m whi t e . Mos t of t he m had t ol d hi m t he y we r e
pl a nni ng t o b e c o me f armers, l i ke t hei r p a r e n t s t o one day t ake ov e r t hei r
f ami l y f arms. But t hos e wh o wa nt e d t o st ri ke out on t hei r o wn, t o try
s ome t hi ng n e w, he had e nc our a ge d. So me , mos t l y gi r l s, wa nt e d t o be
t eacher s . A f e w wa nt e d ot her pr of essi ons, s uc h as one bo y wh o wa nt e d t o
b e c o me a c ount y agent ; anot her , a vet er i nar i an; and one gi rl wa nt e d t o be
a nur s e. T h e y al l r epor t ed t hat Mr. Os t r ows ki had e nc o ur a g e d wha t e v e r
t hey had wa nt e d. Ye t near l y none of t he m had e a r ne d mar ks e qua l t o mi ne .
It wa s a s ur pr i s i ng t hi ng t hat I had ne v e r t hought of i t t hat wa y bef or e,
but I r e al i z e d t hat wha t e v e r I was n' t , I was smart er t han near l y al l of t hose
whi t e ki ds . But appar ent l y I wa s sti l l not i nt el l i gent e no ug h, i n t hei r e y e s ,
t o b e c o me wha t e v e r I wa nt e d t o be .
I t wa s t he n t hat I b e g a n t o c h a n g e i n s i d e . ( Mal c ol m X, 1964)
No mat t er h o w br i ght or ha r dwor ki ng an i ndi vi dual i s, i f oppor t uni t y t o be
cr eat i ve i s de ni e d, t her e c an be no creat i vi t y.
Lack of Support
Bl ac ks ha v e hi g he r une mpl o y me nt , l owe r i nc ome , l ess educ at i on, and mor e
c hi l dr e n t han whi t e pe opl e . Onl y one- t hi r d o wn t hei r o wn home s . T h e di v or c e rate
a mo ng bl ac ks i s 23 pe r c e nt , t he i l l egi t i mac y rate i s 25 pe r c e nt , and 25 pe r c e nt of
bl ac k hous e hol ds are h e a d e d by f emal es wi t h no ma l e pr e s e nt ( Pi nkney, 1 969; U. S.
De pa r t me nt of Labor , 1965) . Ho w do t hes e gr i m stati sti cs af f ect t he bl a c k c hi l d?
Fi rst , s uc h a pat t er n al l ows l i ttl e c ha nc e for e s c ape . Chi l dr e n wh o g r ow up i n
an i mpo v e r i s he d e nv i r onme nt ha v e l i t t l e expos ur e t o t he r ange of opt i ons s oci et y
can offer. Rol e mo de l s are l i ke l y t o be t he t oughe s t ki ds on t he bl oc k, rat her t han
schol ars. Chi l dr e n i n an i mpov e r i s he d e nv i r onme nt are pr oba bl y not s ur r ounded
by books or s t i mul at i ng t oys. T h e y ma y nei t her be e nc our a g e d t o s t udy nor re-
wa r de d for doi ng so. Ch a n c e s are t hat t he pe o pl e t he y i nt er act wi t h on a dai l y
b a s i s t h e i r f r i ends and n e i g h b o r s a r e i n t he s ame pr e di c a me nt t he y are. T h e y
pr obabl y at t end an i l l - e qui ppe d s chool whi c h offers l i t t l e st i mul at i on. As a resul t of
b e i ng r ai s ed i n a br o k e n h o me , t hey ma y not l ear n t he v a l ue s and behavi or s ne c e s -
sary t o a c hi e v e s uc c es s i n our s oc i et y ( Comer , 1967) . Fur t her , t he a bs e nc e of a
st rong ma l e r ol e mo de l ma y ma k e i t di f f i cul t for mal e c hi l dr e n t o d e v e l o p good wor k
habi t s ( Gi nz be r g , 1956) .
Chi l dr e n f rom s uc h an e nv i r onme nt ma y sti l l aspi r e t o a c h i e v e i n d e e d , ma ny
do ( Pi nkney, 1969) , and ma ny ha v e . But t o do s o r equi r es ov e r c omi ng t r e me ndous
odds . Wi t hout mo ne y , a g ood educ at i on, a st abl e ho me , a st rong v a l ue for schol ar-
s hi p, and wi t hout e nc our a g i ng f ri ends and f ami l y, t he t ask s e e ms enor mous .
Th e r e i s ho p e of br e a ki ng t hi s pat t ern, but mos t of t he c ha ng e s mus t c ome f rom
s our ces ext er nal t o bl ac ks .
Mo r e and bet t er j obs , e s pe c i al l y j obs whi c h pa y and pr omot e nondi s cr i mi -
nat el y, wo u l d he l p. I n 1 966, a bl ac k wi t h s ome c ol l e g e e duc a t i on wa s sti l l ear ni ng
l ess t han a whi t e wi t h an ei ght h- gr ade educ at i on ( Fe i n, 1966) . Bet t er hous i ng and
mor e a c c e s s i bl e h o me o wne r s hi p c oul d add a s ens e of st abi l i t y and securi t y. An
i mpr o v e d e nv i r onme nt c an i ncr eas e a chi l d' s I Q; a de pr e s s e d e nv i r onme nt can
ma k e i t go d o wn (Patai and Wi ng , 1 975) . Bet t er e q u i p p e d and st af f ed school s c oul d
he l p e qua l i z e t he educ at i onal si t uat i on. St udi es s ho w t hat as s chool s i mpr ove ,
per f or manc e i mpr ov e s (Pat ai and Wi ng , 1 975) . T h e s e c ha ng e s , t hough, mus t c o me
f rom t he l ar ger soci et y.
Fr o m wi t hi n t he bl a c k c ommuni t y , he l p can c o me f rom bl ac ks wh o ha v e suc-
c e e d e d and wh o are wi l l i ng t o wor k wi t h t hos e wh o ha v e not , and t he r e by s er ve as
r ol e mode l s .
He l p can al so c o me f rom t he c hur c h, as i t has i n t he past , i n t he dr i ve for ci vi l
ri ght s. T h e c hur c h has b e e n t he out s t andi ng soci al i nst i t ut i on i n t he bl ac k c ommu-
ni t y, t he pl a c e wh e r e bl ac ks ha v e f ound r ef uge and emot i onal rel i ef . Its rol e i n t he
f ut ure mus t be e v e n mor e de ma ndi ng i f bl ac ks are t o br e a k t he pat t ern we have
di s c us s ed.
Bl e a k as t he pi c t ur e ma y be , i t has s ome pos i t i ve not es . Bl ac ks are pr ogr es s i ng
and i nde e d ha v e ma d e t r e me ndous cont r i but i ons i n l i t erat ure, mus i c , sport s, ent er-
t ai nment , and danc e . Fo ur bl ac ks ( t wo Ame r i c ans ) ha v e wo n t he No b e l pr i z e. About
1 0 pe r c e nt of bl ac ks are pr of es s i onal l y e mp l o y e d ( Al mqui s t , 1979) .
Fur t her , f ul l y 80 pe r c e nt of mot her s of bl ac k c ol l e g e s t udent s wor k out s i de t he
h o me ( Wi l l i e and Mc Co r d , 1 972) . Whi l e ma ny pr obabl y do s o by nec es s i t y, none-
t hel es s , as we ha v e s e e n i n our di s c us s i on of wo me n , a wo r k i ng mot he r i s t he be s t
as s ur ance t hat he r c hi l dr e n, e s pe c i al l y her f emal e c hi l dr e n, wi l l al so wor k.
I n t hos e bl ac k f ami l i es whi c h are st abl e and mi ddl e cl ass, educ at i on i s e mpha-
s i z e d and e nc our a g e d. Mo r e bl ac ks are at t endi ng c ol l e g e , s et t i ng hi g he r goal s , and
get t i ng bet t er j obs t han e v e r bef or e ( Wi l l i e and Mc Co r d , 1 972) .
T h e maj or di f f er enc e b e t we e n bl ac k and whi t e f ami l i es appe ar s t o be one of
cl ass, not col or. " As s oon as bl ac ks ent er t he mi ddl e cl ass, f ami l y pat t erns as s oci at ed
wi t h t he l o we r cl ass t e nd t o di s appear . T h e di f f er ences b e t we e n bl a c k and whi t e
f ami l y pat t er ns, t he n, are l ar gel y t he r esul t of status i n t he s oc i e t y " ( Pi nkney, 1969).
Be c a us e t he bl a c k l o we r cl ass i s so l ar ge, pr obl e ms l oom l ar ge. Pe r haps as status
i mpr ov e s , t he c r e at i ve pot ent i al of bl ac ks wi l l l i ke wi s e i mpr ov e .
COMPARI NG ASIANS AND BLACKS
As i ans are s ome t i me s he l d up t o bl ac ks as " mo d e l mi nor i t i e s " ( Al mqui s t , 1979) ,
t he i mpl i c at i on b e i n g t hat i f As i ans c oul d b e c o me s uc c es s f ul , bl ac ks can, t oo.
Ho we v e r , as Al mq ui s t poi nt s out , t her e are a numb e r of wa y s i n whi c h t hi s i mpl i -
cat i on i s unf ai r.
Fi rst , ma ny As i ans c a me t o t hi s c ount r y as hi g hl y s ki l l e d wor ker s . Ov e r 60
pe r c e nt of As i a n i mmi gr ant s i n t he 1950' s we r e cl as s i f i ed as whi t e col l ar wor ker s
( Al mqui s t , 1979) . Se c o nd, As i ans are l ess t han one pe r c e nt of our popul at i on, or 1.3
mi l l i on pe o pl e . Bl a c ks , numb e r i ng 20 mi l l i on, are not as eas i l y abs or be d by t he
wor k f orce.
Thi r d, wh i l e As i ans ha v e b e e n s ubj ec t ed t o di s cr i mi nat i on (for e xampl e , t he
i nt er nment of Japanes e Ame r i c a ns dur i ng Wor l d Wa r I I ) , i t can i n no wa y be
c ompa r e d t o 200 year s of s l aver y whi c h de pr i v e d an ent i r e p e o p l e of t hei r di gni t y,
her i t age, ci vi l r i ght s, and pr oper t y. Four t h, As i ans c hos e t o c o me he r e and v i e we d
t he Uni t e d St at es as a pl a c e of oppor t uni t y. Fi f t h, t he st rong As i an c ommuni t i e s can
a c c ommoda t e n e wc o me r s and pr ov i de t he m wi t h hous i ng and j obs .
As i an c r eat i ve a c hi e v e me nt i s cer t ai nl y t o be e mul a t e d, but i t i s unf ai r t o
s ugges t t hat i f As i ans ha v e " ma d e i t , " bl ac ks s houl d ha v e " ma d e i t , " t oo. T h e
pr obl e ms t hat bl ac ks ha v e f ac ed are e xt r e me l y s e v e r e ones and t he y are by no
me ans s ol ved. De s p i t e t he s e di f f i cul t i es, bl acks ha v e ma d e v e r y r e s pe c t abl e pr og-
ress.
AMERICAN I NDI ANS
St at i st i cs on Ame r i c a n I ndi ans are not e nc our agi ng. T h e a v e r a g e educ at i onal
l e v e l a mo ng I ndi ans i s 9. 8. On l y one- t hi r d f i ni sh hi gh s chool . Ma n y are f unct i onal l y
i l l i t erat e ( Wax, 1 97 1 ) . One - t hi r d l i ve i n pover t y, ma k i ng t he m t he r anki ng pov e r t y
gr oup i n t hi s c ount r y ( Al mqui s t , 1979) . Un e mp l o y me n t i s c hr oni c , and has at t i mes
r e a c he d 80 pe r c e nt a mo ng t hos e l i vi ng on r eser vat i ons, as ov e r 60 pe r c e nt do (Wax,
1 97 1 ) . I ndi ans ha v e t he hi ghe s t bi rt h rate and l owe s t l i f e e x pe c t a nc y of any gr oup
i n our count r y.
Wh e n Eur o pe a ns o c c upi e d t he Nor t h Ame r i c a n cont i nent , t he I ndi an popul a-
t i on wa s gr eat l y r e d u c e d f r o m over one mi l l i on i n 1 492 t o 220, 000 i n 1 91 0
( Al mqui s t , 1 9 7 9 ) a n d t hei r us ual me ans of l i v e l i hood wa s r e mov e d.
Wh e n t he buf f al oes we r e de s t r oy e d . . . t he Si oux we r e de pr i v e d not onl y
of f ood, but al so of cul t ur al l y si gni f i cant act i vi t i es. T h e t ri bal soci et i es
c o nc e r ne d wi t h wa r and hunt i ng l ost t hei r f unct i ons and at r ophi ed. T h e
arts and t e c hni que s s ur r oundi ng t he buf f al o h u n t . . . wh i c h had onc e b e e n
s our ces of soci al status and of pr i de i n wor kma ns hi p, we r e no w r e nde r e d
us el es s . ( Barber, 1 941 )
I ndi an c ul t ur es are qui t e di ver s e. Th e r e are hundr e ds of di st i nct t r i bes wh i c h
ma y di f f er gr eat l y f rom one anot her i n l a ngua ge and c us t oms . Unl i k e J e wi s h cul -
t ur e, t hough, I ndi an c ul t ur es t ypi c al l y do not me s h we l l wi t h t he domi na nt Ame r -
i can cul t ur e. Co ns i de r t hi s l et t er sent t o t he Vi r gi ni a Co mmi s s i o n i n 1 744 r egar di ng
an i nvi t at i on for si x I ndi an c hi l dr e n t o at t end Wi l l i a m and Ma r y Co l l e g e :
Sever al of our y o u n g pe o pl e we r e f or mer l y br oug ht up at Co l l e g e s of t he
Nor t her n Pr ov i nc e s ; t he y we r e i nst r uct ed i n al l y our s c i e nc e s ; but wh e n
t he y c a me ba c k t o us , t he y we r e ba d r unner s , i gnor ant of e v e r y me ans of
l i vi ng i n t he wo o d s , una bl e t o be ar ei t her c ol d or hunge r , k n e w nei t her
ho w t o bui l d a c abi n, t ake a deer , or ki l l an e ne my , s poke our l anguage
i mper f ect l y, we r e t her ef or e ne i t he r fit for hunt er s , war r i or s, or c ouns el l or s ,
t hey we r e t ot al l y g ood for not hi ng. We are, ho we v e r , not t he l ess obl i g e d
by y our ki nd offer, t hough we de c l i ne a c c e pt i ng i t; and t o s how our grat ef ul
Se ns e of it, i f t he Ge n t l e me n of Vi r gi ni a wi l l s end us a Do z e n of t hei r Sons
we wi l l t ake car e of t hei r educ at i on, i nst ruct t he m i n al l we k no w, and
ma k e Me n of t he m. ( Noel , 1968)
Al t houg h t hi s l et t er wa s wr i t t en ov e r 200 year s ago, i t v oi c e s t he at t i t udes of
ma ny I ndi ans t oday. T h e " Whi t e Ma n ' s " educ at i on i s sti l l not v i e we d as wor t h-
whi l e . For I ndi ans , t he s chool dr opout rate i s ve r y hi gh. I n ma ny c as es , dr oppi ng
out c a n be at t r i but ed di r ec t l y t o conf l i ct s b e t we e n t he l ocal I ndi an c ul t ur e and t he
domi na nt c ul t ur e. For e x a mpl e , ma ny s out hwe s t I ndi ans do not b e l i e v e i n ma ki ng
de c i s i ons for ot her pe o pl e or i n advi s i ng t he m.
I ndi ans do not b e l i e v e t hat one per s on s houl d t el l anot her wha t t o do
or t hat e ndl e s s hour s s houl d be wa s t e d i n pe r s ua di ng anot her . Fr om i n-
f ancy, I ndi ans are t aught t o r e s pe c t t he ri ght s of ot her s and t o avoi d i nter-
f er i ng wi t h ot her pe o pl e . E v e n i f anot her pe r s on i s pl a c i ng hi ms e l f or
he r s e l f i n gr eat phys i c al danger , t he I ndi an wi l l not t el l t he per s on what t o
do. Pa s s e nge r s i n an aut omobi l e wi l l r emai n s i l ent rat her t han wa r n t he
dr i ver of a r ock s l i de or a st eer i n t he road. To war n t he dr i ver wo u l d
const i t ut e i nt er f er enc e. ( Al mqui s t , 1979)
Thi s a s pe c t of t hei r c ul t ur e l eads I ndi an c hi l dr e n t o dr op out of school and, further,
t o ma k e t he de c i s i on t o dr op out of school on t hei r own, wi t hout di s cus s i on or
par ent al g ui da nc e .
Be i n g ba r e l y l i t erat e and not e s t e e mi ng t he val ue s of t he l arger soci et y has
ma d e f i ndi ng e mp l o y me n t di f f i cul t for I ndi ans . Wa x ( 1 971 ) says
He ma y be a s hr e wd j udg e of huma n charact er, be st rong, l oyal , r el i abl e,
and wi l l i ng t o wor k, but he wi l l be l uc ky i f he gai ns e v e n t he mos t me ni al
and poor l y pa y i ng e mpl o y me nt .
The i r o wn cul t ur e ma ke s i t di f f i cul t for nat i ve Ame r i c a ns t o obt ai n educat i on
and e mp l o y me nt i n t he Uni t e d St at es. Fur t her , i t ma ke s i t unl i ke l y t hat t hey wo u l d
be abl e or i nc l i ne d t o be cr eat i ve wi t hi n t he f r amewor k of our cul t ur e.
CONCLUSI ON
I f y our s oc i et y
1. v a l ue s i nt el l ect ual act i vi t i es,
and
2. e nc our a g e s y o u t o be i nt er es t ed i n i nt el l ect ual act i vi t i es,
and
3. e nc our a g e s y o u t o b e l i e v e t hat y o u can s uc c e e d i n i nt el l ect ual act i vi t i es,
and
4. he l ps y o u t o obt ai n ne c e s s ar y educ at i on,
and
5. doe s not i mpos e ot her occupat i ons on y o u wh i c h pr e e mpt your t i me,
t hen your c ha nc e s of b e c o mi n g a cr eat i ve per s on wi l l be mu c h bet t er t han aver age.
Ho we v e r , i f any of t hes e condi t i ons i s vi ol at ed be c a us e y o u are a bl ack, a woma n,
a Nat i ve Ame r i c a n, or for wha t e v e r r eason, t hen your c ha nc e s of b e c o mi n g a crea-
t i ve per s on wi l l be gr eat l y r e duc e d.
T h e s e obs er vat i ons about t he soci al condi t i ons of cr eat i vi t y have i mpl i cat i ons
bot h for t he i ndi vi dual and for soci et y as a whol e .
Fi rst , i ndi vi dual s s houl d be awar e of soci al pr es s ur es wh i c h ma y t e nd t o bl oc k
t hei r cr eat i ve de v e l o pme nt . As k y our s e l f t hes e ques t i ons about y our upbr i ngi ng:
In hi gh s c hool , wa s i t mor e i mpor t ant t o be a good s t udent or a good at hl et e?
Di d y our f r i ends c ons i de r i t unf e mi ni ne t o be i nt el l ec t ual ?
We r e y o u wor r i e d t hat y o u mi ght l ose your r el i gi on i f y o u t hought t oo de e pl y
about s c i e nc e or phi l os ophy ?
Ha v e y o u mo d e l e d y our o wn car eer on s ome one y o u k n e w we l l ?
Wa s t her e pr es s ur e on y o u at ho me t o get good gr ades ?
Di d your par ent s e x pe c t y o u t o b e c o me a pr of es s i onal ?
We r e your par ent s i nt er es t ed i n i nt el l ect ual t hi ngs ?
I n a ns we r i ng t he s e ques t i ons , mos t pe o pl e can i dent i f y ma ny soci al pr essur es
wh i c h have pus he d t he m ei t her t owar d or a wa y f rom i nt el l ect ual pursui t s. Be i ng
awar e of t he pr es s ur es wh i c h have i nf l ue nc e d y o u and wh i c h ma y i nf l uence y ou
i n t he f ut ure can he l p y o u t o t ake a mor e act i ve r ol e i n de t e r mi ni ng your o wn
creat i vi t y.
I f soci et y s ugges t s t hat y o u can' t be cr eat i ve b e c a us e of y our race or sex, you
ne e dn' t be de t e r r e d i f y o u under s t and t hat t he f aul t i s i n s oci et y and not i n you. You
can set goal s for y o u r s e l f a s Ma l c ol m X and Ma r y Some r v i l l e d i d f a r be y o nd t he
goal s ot hers mi g ht try t o set for you. Yo u can c ons c i ous l y s e e k a rol e mode l for
y our s e l f a mo ng t he pe o pl e y o u k no w wh o are out s t andi ng i n your f i el d or by
r eadi ng bi ogr aphi e s . Yo u can s eek out pe o pl e i n your f i el d and ask t he m ho w t hey
" ma de i t . " Yo u can resi st pr es s ur es f rom your f ri ends t o be " r e g ul a r " and c hoos e
i nst ead t o be s pec i al .
T h e obs er vat i ons i n t hi s c hapt er s houl d l ead us t o ask s ome v e r y ser i ous que s -
t i ons about our c ul t ur e. Cl e a r l y , our cul t ur e de pe nds on t he wo r k of cr eat i ve pe o pl e
for its we l l - be i ng . I t d e p e n d s on t he m t o s ol ve pr obl e ms of pol l ut i on, of popul at i on,
of f ood and e ne r g y pr oduc t i on, and of di s eas e. I t d e p e nd s on t he m t o pr oduc e n e w
mus i c, art, da nc e , and l i t erat ure. Whi l e our soci et y d e p e nd s on c r eat i ve poe pl e , i t
doe s not appe ar t o be v e r y i nt er es t ed i n f ost eri ng t hei r de v e l o pme nt . For e xampl e ,
wh y do bas ket bal l superst ars ear n mor e t han No be l pr i z e wi nne r s ? I s i t be c a us e
bas ket bal l pl aye r s do mor e t o r e duc e di s e as e or i ncr eas e f ood pr oduc t i on? Wh y do
adver t i s i ng e x e c ut i v e s ear n mor e t han c ol l e g e pr of essor s? Do t he y cont r i but e mor e
t o art and k n o wl e d g e ? Wh y doe s our s oci et y i nsi st t hat wo me n , r egar dl es s of t hei r
pot ent i al cr eat i vi t y, rai se t hei r c hi l dr e n per s onal l y, rat her t han be pr ov i de d wi t h
a de qua t e c hi l d- c ar e f aci l i t i es? Wh y are t her e at hl et i c s chol ar s hi ps ? Woul dn' t t he
mo n e y be bet t er s pent on pe opl e wh o are good at i nt el l ect ual rat her t han at hl et i c
ski l l s? Wh y doe s our s chool s ys t em put s uc h e mphas i s on its at hl et i c pr ogr ams ?
Wh y i s i t t hat wh e n we l ook at our hi gh s chool s , we are v e r y l i kel y t o s ee a si gn
s ayi ng, " Ho me of t he Fi g ht i ng Wo mb a t s , " but not hi ng about t he school ' s a c a de mi c
a c hi e v e me nt s ?
Th e r e are ma ny s uc h ques t i ons t o ask. As ki ng t he m and pr ov i di ng s e ns i bl e
a ns we r s c oul d be cr uci al for t he sur vi val of our soci et y.
REFERENCES
Al mqui s t , E. M. Minorities, Gender, and Work. Le xi ngt on, MA: Le x i ng t on Books ,
1 979.
Al mqui s t , E. M. , and Angr i s t , S. S. " Ro l e Mo d e l I nf l uenc es on Co l l e g e Wo me n' s
Ca r e e r As pi r at i ons . " In The Professional Game, e di t e d by A. The o do r e . Ca m-
br i dg e , MA: Sc he nk ma n Publ i s hi ng Co. , Inc. , 1 97 1 .
Angr i s t , S. S. , and Al mqui s t , E. M. Careers and Contingencies. N e w Yor k: Dune l l e n,
1 975.
Ar i et i , S. Creativity: The Magic Synthesis. Ne w Yor k: Bas i c Books , Inc. , Publ i s her s ,
1 976.
As hmo r e , H. S. The Negro and the Schools. Cha p e l Hi l l , NC : T h e Uni ver s i t y of
Nor t h Car ol i na Pr es s , 1 954.
As t i n, H. S. The Woman Doctorate in America. Ne w Yor k: Rus s el l Sage Founda t i on,
1 969.
Bar ber , B. " Ac c ul t ur at i on and Me s s i ani c Mo v e me n t s . " American Sociological Re-
view, 6( 10) , 653- 673, 1 941 .
Bond, S.J., and Ha y e s , J.R. A Comparison of Successful and Unsuccessful Profes-
sional Women. Unp u b l i s h e d manus cr i pt , 1 978.
Br ody, E. B. , and Br ody, N. Intelligence: Nature, Determinants, and Consequences.
N e w Yor k: Ac a d e mi c Pr es s , Inc. , 1 976.
Cant or , M. " Wh y I am a Soc i ol ogi s t . " In Graduate and Professional Education of
Women. Pr oc e e di ng s of A A U W Co nf e r e nc e , Was hi ngt on, D. C. , Ma y , 1974.
Co me r , J. P. " T h e Soci al P o we r of t he Ne g r o . " Scientific American, 216( 4) , 21 - 27,
1967.
A P P E N D I X
I.
ON THE USE OF TIME
T i me ma n a g e me n t i s i mpor t ant be c a us e i t can i nf l uenc e y our pr obl em- s ol vi ng
ef f i ci ency i n a n u mb e r of wa y s :
1 . T h e s i mpl e s t and mos t obv i ous wa y i s t hat t hr ough poor s c he dul i ng , y o u al l ow
i nsuf f i ci ent t i me t o wo r k a pr obl e m t hr ough t o sol ut i on or, per haps , y o u ne v e r
get t o i t at al l . No mat t er h o w br i ght y o u are, i f y o u don' t wor k on a pr obl e m, y ou
wo n' t s ol ve it.
2. E v e n i f y o u do s c he dul e e no ug h t i me t o s ol ve t he pr obl e m, y o u may not s ched-
ul e t he be s t t i me t o s ol ve it. For e x a mpl e , y o u ma y s c he dul e wor k on a pr obl e m
at t he v e r y l ast mi nut e be f or e t he pr obl e m i s due . T h e pr es s ur e t hat resul t s from
s uch s c he dul i ng c an c aus e i nef f i ci ent pr obl e m s ol vi ng by l i mi t i ng t he amount of
pl a nni ng t hat y o u f eel y o u can do at t he be g i nni ng of t he sol ut i on pr oces s or by
di s c our agi ng y o u f rom e x a mi ni ng al t er nat i ve sol ut i on pat hs i n suf f i ci ent dept h.
Cer t ai nl y, s uc h s c he dul i ng wo u l d el i mi nat e t he v e r y v a l ua bl e pr act i ce of re-
v i e wi ng and cr i t i ci z i ng t he s ol ut i on pr oces s i mme di a t e l y after t he sol ut i on i s
a c hi e v e d. A far bet t er t i me t o s c he dul e pr obl e m s ol ut i on i s ri ght after cl ass. At
t hi s t i me , facts and i deas wh i c h may be f orgot t en i n a f e w hour s can be us e d and
c ons ol i dat ed.
3. I f your t i me ma n a g e me n t i s ge ne r al l y poor , y our abi l i t y t o s ol ve pr obl e ms may
suf f er b e c a us e y o u ha v e f ai l ed t o ac qui r e an es s ent i al pi e c e of k no wl e d g e or
be c a us e y o u ha v e not at t ai ned suf f i ci ent mas t er y of a bas i c ski l l . St udent s s ome-
t i mes try t o s ave t i me by at t empt i ng t o s ol ve pr obl e ms after onl y a qui c k gl anc e
at t he r el evant c hapt er or wi t hout wo r k i ng t hr ough t he pr act i ce pr obl e ms . Whi l e
t hi s cor ner - cut t i ng t e c hni que s ome t i me s al l ows y o u t o ge t by , i n t he l ong run i t
i s l i kel y t o r e duc e y our pr obl e m- s ol v i ng ef f i ci ency.
Whi l e t her e i s v e r y l i t t l e g l a mour i n t i me ma na g e me nt , t he t e c hni que s are
s i mpl e and t he y wor k. For s ome , t he y can pr oduc e c ons i de r a bl e gai ns i n pr obl em-
s ol vi ng ef f i ci ency. Ac c o r di ng t o Cr a wl e y ( 1936) , t i me ma na g e me nt i s t he most
usef ul ski l l t hat s t udent s ac qui r e i n c our s es on st udy- ski l l s.
TECHNIQUES OF TIME MANAGEMENT
T i me ma na g e me nt e mpl o y s t wo maj or t e c hni que s :
Time planning: al l ot t i ng speci f i c bl oc ks of t i me dur i ng t he day or we e k t o
speci f i c t asks ac c or di ng t o t hei r i mpor t anc e and t he t i me t he y r equi r e.
Efficiency: get t i ng a gr eat de a l a c c ompl i s he d i n t he avai l abl e t i me.
239
Le t ' s start our di s c us s i on wi t h t i me pl anni ng. T h e first ser i ous st ep i n t i me
pl a nni ng i s t o f i nd out h o w y o u s pe nd your t i me now. Per haps t he s i mpl es t wa y t o
do thi s i s t o k e e p a t i me chart s uch as t hi s:
T I ME S C H E D U L E F OR WE E K
Da t e :
Ho u r Mo n d a y T u e s d a y We d n e s d a y T h u r s d a y F r i d a y S a t u r d a y S u n d a y
On the Use of Ti me 241
You s houl d r ecor d your act i vi t i es i n t he chart for at l east one c ompl e t e we e k ,
si nce for mos t pe opl e t i me us age vari es a good deal f rom day t o day. We e k e nds , for
e xampl e , are us ual l y s c he dul e d qui t e di f f erent l y from we e k da y s . Si nce t he record
i s ent i r el y for your benef i t , i t i s wor t h maki ng i t as c ompl e t e and accurat e as y ou can.
Ta k e t he dat a s heet wi t h y o u whe r e v e r y ou go s o that y ou can make t he ent ri es as
soon after t he act i vi t y as pos s i bl e. Be uns par i ngl y hones t about s uch quest i ons as,
" Wa s I s t udyi ng or real l y j ust r eadi ng ma g a z i ne s ? "
On e wo u l d expec t most c ol l e ge st udent s t o s pe nd 1 2 t o 1 5 hours i n cl ass eac h
we e k and 25 t o 30 hour s i n st udy.
On c e y o u have an i dea of ho w y ou us e your t i me, y ou may be del i ght ed and
i mpr es s ed, or y o u may de c i de that y o u wa nt t o des i gn a bet t er s c hedul e. You may
f i nd, for e xampl e , that y ou s pe nd mor e t i me i n casual r ecr eat i on t han y o u t hought
and want t o conver t s ome of t hose hours t o st udy us e. You may f i nd that you are
put t i ng undue emphas i s on one t opi c at t he e x pe ns e of ot hers or that s ome t opi cs
are suf f eri ng be c a us e t hey are be i ng l eft for t he l ast mi nut e. I f any of t hes e t hi ngs
i s t rue, y ou wi l l l i kel y prof i t by maki ng a t i me pl an and st i cki ng t o it.
To ma ke a t i me pl an, y ou s houl d est abl i sh a f i xed we e k l y s c he dul e i n whi c h
speci f i c t opi cs are as s i gned t o speci f i c t i me sl ots. T h e amount of t i me y ou assi gn t o
eac h t opi c s houl d d e p e nd on its i mpor t ance t o y ou and on t he di f f i cul t y y ou have
wi t h it. De c i d i ng on t he rel at i ve i mpor t ance of t he t opi cs i s ver y i mport ant and
t heref ore wor t h c ons i der abl e t hought . Ma ki ng t hes e dec i s i ons s ens i bl y may be t he
most val uabl e as pec t of t i me pl anni ng.
Tr y t o pl ac e t he t i me sl ot f or s t udyi ng a t opi c as cl ose as pos s i bl e after t he
l ect ur e on that t opi c. Tr y t o s c he dul e t opi cs that r equi r e a great deal of pr obl em
s ol vi ng or concent r at i on at t i mes wh e n y o u are most al ert. Le a v e rout i ne act i vi t i es
and r ecr eat i on for t i mes wh e n y ou are l i kel y t o ne e d rel axat i on.
Your s c he dul e s houl d i nc l ude a we e k l y r e v i e w and pl anni ng sessi on t o s ee
whe r e y ou have got t en dur i ng t he past we e k and whe r e y ou are goi ng dur i ng t he
next .
Your s c he dul i ng of r ecr eat i on shoul d be real i st i c rat her t han i deal i st i c. You
may f eel t hat i t i s nobl e t o s pend no t i me at al l on f ool i sh t hi ngs l i ke TV wat c hi ng,
but i f mi s s i ng your f avori t e programs turns y ou i nto a sel f - pi t yi ng bl ob, t he sacri f i ce
pr obabl y i sn' t wor t h i t ac ademi c al l y or ot her wi s e. On t he ot her hand, i f y o u f i nd that
you r ewar d your s el f wi t h an hour of TV for e ve r y hour y o u st udy, y ou are cl earl y
be i ng wi l dl y sel f - i ndul gent . Be r eas onabl e! Gi v e your s el f e no ug h recreat i on t o stay
ef f i ci ent but not t oo mu c h mor e.
Onc e y ou have es t abl i s hed your t i me pl an, y o u s houl d try t o f ol l ow i t cl osel y.
Of course, i t ma y ne e d adj ust ment s. You may f i nd that y ou have t oo muc h of
s omet hi ng or t oo l i ttl e of s omet hi ng el s e. I f an e me r g e nc y c ome s up, say i n t he form
of an exam, y ou have t o bor r ow t i me from one t opi c t o wor k on anot her. T h e
bor r owe d t i me s houl d al ways be pai d back, howe v e r .
You may f i nd i t hel pf ul t o cont i nue your t i me di ary so t hat you can s ee t he
ext ent t o whi c h your act ual t i me us age appr oxi mat es your pl an. Ke e pi ng t he di ary
for at l east one we e k onc e your pl an i s i n operat i on cer t ai nl y s houl d be i nf ormat i ve.
Gi v e n a sati sf actory s c he dul e of wor k and recreat i on, t he next pr obl em i s t o
i nsure that you get t he ma x i mum benef i t out of t he hours y ou wor k. Ef f i ci ency
r equi r es bot h organi zat i on and concent r at i on.
ORGANI ZI NG YOUR WORK
Mos t of us have had t he e xpe r i e nc e of set t l i ng d o wn t o wor k onl y t o di s c over
that nec es s ar y paper s are mi s s i ng or that we have l ost t he as s i gnment . Or we may
be wor ki ng al ong at hi gh s pe e d on a paper and have t o st op for 10 mi nut es t o search
for a di ct i onar y unde r heaps of paper s and r ecor d j acket s. T h e pur pos e of or gani zi ng
your wor k i s t o r e duc e t he amount of t i me y ou s pend doi ng t hi ngs l i ke sear chi ng
t hr ough var i ous he a ps for t hi ngs y o u ne e d ri ght now. S o me of t he f ol l owi ng r ul es
ma y he l p:
1. Ke e p a s he l f (or f i xed pl ace) for f r equent l y us e d r e f e r e nc e books and ma k e a
habi t of r et ur ni ng t he m t o t hei r pl ac es after us e.
2. Ke e p a separ at e, c l ear l y ma r ke d not e book or f ol der for e a c h t opi c.
3. Da t e y our paper s , and numb e r t he page s .
4. Ke e p y our per s onal l i br ar y i n s ome r eas onabl e or der , e. g. , ar r anged by t opi c or
al phabet i c al l y by aut hor.
5. I f y o u can' t c o mpl e t e a j o b i n one sessi on, di v i de i t i nt o subpar t s wh i c h can be
c o mpl e t e d i n one s es s i on.
6. Wh e n y o u f i ni sh a wo r k s es s i on on a g i v e n t opi c, y ou s houl d pl an wha t t o do next
wh e n y o u r et ur n t o t hat t opi c and l e a v e your s el f a not e as a r emi nder . I t ma y s ave
y ou s ome t i me i n r eor i ent i ng y our s e l f t o t he t opi c.
CONCENTRATI ON
T h e ot her as pec t of ef f i ci ency t hat we wi l l c ons i de r i s concent r at i on. Tr y i ng t o
ma k e y our s e l f c onc ent r at e i s a mu c h mor e di f f i cul t task t o ge t hol d of t han at t empt -
i ng t o or gani z e your wor k. Some aut hors s i mpl y t hr ow up t hei r hands and say, " T h e
onl y wa y t o c onc ent r at e i s t o c onc ent r at e. " Th e r e are s ome i t ems of adv i c e i n t he
" Ho w t o St udy " l i t er at ur e, ho we v e r , whi c h y o u ma y f i nd us ef ul .
1. On c e y o u es t abl i s h y our wor k s c he dul e , sti ck t o it. On e aut hor dr aws an anal ogy
wi t h eat i ng. I f y o u r egul ar l y eat at cer t ai n t i mes of t he day, y o u wi l l be hungr y
at t hos e t i mes . I f y o u r egul ar l y wor k at cer t ai n t i mes of t he day, y o u wi l l be r eady
for wo r k at t hos e t i mes .
2. Whi l e i t i s not abs ol ut e l y es s ent i al , a qui e t wo r k pl ac e doe s he l p. Ke e p TV and
f ri ends out of your s t udy area. Us e a r adi o onl y i f t he mus i c dr owns out s ounds
t hat are mor e di st r act i ng.
3. Us e y our wo r k s pac e onl y for wor k. I f y o u have a mo me n t for rel axat i on, do i t
s o me wh e r e el s e.
4. Sc he dul e short rests and ma ke good us e of t he m: st ret ch, wa l k ar ound, do s ome-
t hi ng di f f er ent f rom wha t y o u have b e e n doi ng.
5. Do n' t wor k mor e t han t wo hour s at a t i me on t he s ame t opi c i f y o u c an he l p it.
6. S c he dul e your wo r k hour s for t hos e t i mes of t he day wh e n y o u are mos t ef f i ci ent .
I t ma y be wor t h t r yi ng di f f er ent t i mes t o di s c ov e r if, e v e n t houg h y o u pass
y our s e l f of f as a ni ght owl , y o u are r eal l y a l at ent mor ni ng per s on, and v i c e ver sa.
7. Wh e n y o u ha v e wo r k e d t hr ough a pr obl e m, t ake t i me t o r e v i e w wha t i t wa s t hat
ga v e y o u di f f i cul t y and h o w y o u ov e r c a me it. Ref l ec t i on j us t after y o u have
s ol v e d a pr o bl e m i s a v e r y v a l ua bl e ai d i n r e me mb e r i ng n e wl y di s c ov e r e d sol u-
t i on t e c hni que s , s o t hat y o u don' t have t o di s c ove r t he m a ne w e a c h t i me t he
s ame sort of pr obl e m c o me s up.
8. Av o i d da y dr e a mi ng . I f da y dr e a mi ng b e c o me s a pr obl e m i n r e a d i n g i f y ou
not i c e t hat y our e y e s ha v e mo v e d over t he pa g e but y o u hav e n' t under s t ood a
t h i n g t r y s umma r i z i ng e a c h par agr aph t o y our s e l f as y o u c o me t o t he e nd of it.
I f da y dr e a mi ng i s a pr obl e m at ot her t i mes , e. g. , whi l e wo r k i ng phys i c s prob-
l e ms , try us i ng a ki t c he n t i mer wh i c h y o u k e e p r es et t i ng be f or e i t r i n g s wh e n
i t doe s r i ng, i t wi l l br i ng y o u ba c k f rom y our da y dr e a m.
9. If da y dr e a mi ng b e c o me s a s e v e r e pr obl e m dur i ng a s t udy sessi on, wor k on a
mor e i nt er es t i ng t opi c, or st op s t udy i ng al t oget her for a whi l e .
REFERENCES
Cr a wl e y , S. L. , Studying Efficiently. En g l e wo o d Cl i f f s, NJ: Pr ent i c e- Hal l , Inc. ,
1 936.
A P P E N D I X I I
PROBABILITIES
Thi s a ppe ndi x i s de s i g ne d for t he r eader wh o f eel s t hat hi s k no wl e d g e of
e l e me nt a r y pr obabi l i t y t heor y i s shaky or absent . Af t er s t udyi ng t hi s appe ndi x, t he
r eader s houl d be abl e t o do t he f ol l owi ng f our t hi ngs :
1. def i ne pr obabi l i t y,
2. state t hr ee e l e me nt a r y pr oper t i es of pr obabi l i t i es ,
3. es t i mat e pr obabi l i t i es for s ome s i mpl e e v e nt s , and
4. c omput e pr obabi l i t i es for s ome c ompl e x event s .
PROBABILITY DEFINED
Ma ny , per haps most , of t he event s i n our e v e r y da y e x pe r i e nc e ha v e out c omes
t hat we can' t pr e di c t wi t h cert ai nt y. For e xampl e , we can' t be cer t ai n t hat our
f avori t e f oot bal l t e am wi l l wi n t oday' s g a me or t hat a r ec ent l y pur c ha s e d pl ant wi l l
s ur vi ve our car e. We can t hi nk of pl ant r ai si ng as an act i vi t y whi c h can ha v e ei t her
of t wo out c ome s : T h e pl ant wi l l l i ve or i t wi l l di e. I f we ha v e had poor s ucces s i n
t he past , we ma y ha v e l i t t l e c onf i de nc e t hat t he n e w pl ant wi l l l i ve. I f we ha v e b e e n
gener al l y s uc c es s f ul i n t he past , we ma y be mode r at e l y or e v e n st r ongl y conf i dent
of s ucces s . I n any c as e we wi l l r eal i z e t hat we can' t pr e di c t with certainty whe t he r
or not t he n e w pl ant wi l l l i ve.
I n s ome cas es , i t i s pos s i bl e t o de s c r i be t he uncer t ai nt y of an e v e nt by speci f y-
i ng pr obabi l i t i es for t he var i ous pos s i bl e out c omes of t he e v e nt . T h e pr obabi l i t y of
an out c ome i s de f i ne d as t he pr opor t i on of t i mes t hat out c ome wi l l oc c ur g i v e n that
we obs e r ve an i ndef i ni t el y l ar ge numbe r of event s . Thus , i f t he pr obabi l i t y t hat our
t eam wi l l wi n i s act ual l y 0.80, t hen i f we obs e r v e ma ny g a me s , our t eam wi l l wi n
about 80 pe r c e nt of t he m.
Wh e n we k no w t he pr obabi l i t y, we still don' t k no w wi t h cer t ai nt y whe t he r or
not our t eam wi l l wi n its next game . T h e usef ul t hi ng t hat we do k no w i s that i f we
be t on our t eam ma ny t i me s , we wi l l wi n e i ght bet s out of t e n. I n gener al , k no wi ng
t he pr obabi l i t y of an out c ome i s usef ul for pr e di c t i ng t he numb e r of t i mes that
out c ome wi l l oc c ur wh e n t he e v e nt i s r e pe at e d ma ny t i mes .
Pr obabi l i t i es are r el at ed t o odds , but t he t wo s houl dn' t be conf us ed. T h e odds
of an out c ome i s t he rati o of t he numbe r of t i mes t he out c ome occur s , N, t o t he
numbe r of t i mes i t doe s n' t occur , N. Tha t i s,
Od d s ( out come) =
N
T h e pr obabi l i t y of an out c ome i s t he rat i o of t he n u mb e r of t i mes t he out c ome
occur s , N, t o t he total n u mb e r of event s , T. Si nc e t he total numb e r of event s i s t he
s um of N and N, t he n
t> i i -i. / , N N
Pr obabi l i t y ( out come) = =
T N + N
Us ua l l y pr obabi l i t i es are st at ed as de c i mal f ract i ons, whe r e a s odds are st at ed as t he
rati o of wh o l e numbe r s . Thus , t he pr obabi l i t y t hat our t e am wi l l wi n i s 0.80, but t he
odds t hat i t wi l l wi n are e i ght t o t wo, or, r e duc e d t o l o we s t t er ms , f our t o one.
THREE PROPERTIES OF PROBABILITIES
1. A pr obabi l i t y i s a n u mb e r b e t we e n z e r o and one. An out c ome whi c h can ne v e r
occur has a pr obabi l i t y of z er o, and an out c ome whi c h al way s occur s has a pr obabi l -
i ty of one. Mo s t out c ome s ha v e pr obabi l i t i es t hat fall b e t we e n t he s e t wo. A pr oba-
bi l i t y can ne v e r be a ne g a t i v e numbe r .
2. T h e pr obabi l i t i es of al l t he out c omes of an e v e nt sum t o one. Suppo s e t hat an
e v e nt has a n u mb e r of pos s i bl e o u t c o me s s a y f i ve. Suppo s e t hat we ha v e ob-
s e r v e d t he e v e nt an i ndef i ni t e numbe r of t i mes , T, s o t hat we can cal cul at e t he
pr obabi l i t i es of t he out c ome s . I f out c ome 1 oc c ur r ed Nt t i mes , out c ome 2, N2 t i mes ,
and so on, t he n P = Nj / T, P2 = N2 / T, et c. Si nc e e v e r y e v e nt mus t have one of t he
f i ve out c ome s , N j + N j + N g + ^ + N s - T . No w, t he s um of t he pr obabi l i t i es of t he
out c ome s i s g i v e n by:
T , T l T~> T , T , N t N 2 N 3 N 4 N 5
x
* ^ " rj-i rj-i r j i rj-i r j i
_ N t + N 2 + N 3 + N 4 + N 5
T
3. The law of large numbers. Ta b l e 1 s hows t he resul t s of t os s i ng a c oi n r epeat edl y.
As t he numb e r of t osses i nc r eas es , t he pr opor t i on of he ads obt ai ned appr oac hes 0. 5.
Th u s , i n a mi l l i on t osses of a fai r coi n, we s houl d obt ai n a pr opor t i on of he a ds v e r y
c l os e t o 0.5. I f t he c oi n had b e e n bi as e d, t he pr opor t i on of he a ds wo u l d ha v e set t l ed
d o wn t o s ome ot her v a l ue .
Ta b l e 2 s hows t he r es ul t of t os s i ng a bi a s e d coi n. Fr o m t hes e r esul t s, we can
es t i mat e t hat for t hi s coi n, t he pr obabi l i t y of a he ad i s about 0. 53. T h e v al ue , 0. 53,
i s onl y an es t i mat e of t he pr obabi l i t y, s i nce we can ne v e r t oss t he c oi n t he i nf i ni t e
numb e r of t i mes r e qui r e d t o f i nd t he " t r u e " pr obabi l i t y. Ho we v e r , t he es t i mat e wi l l
appr oac h t he t r ue pr obabi l i t y mor e and mor e c l os e l y as we i nc r eas e t he numbe r of
t osses. T h e f act t hat t he es t i mat e wi l l appr oac h t he t rue pr obabi l i t y i n t hi s case i s
an i ns t ance of t he law of large numbers: T h e pr opor t i on of t i mes t hat an e v e nt has
Tabl e 1
Nu mb e r of
t osses 1 0 100 300 500 1,000 10,000
Nu mb e r of
he ads 4 54 1 38 235 484 4, 983
Pr opor t i on
of he a ds 0. 40 0. 54 0. 46 0. 47 0.48 0. 498
Probabilities 245
Tabl e 2
Nu mb e r o f
t os s es 1 0 100 300 500 1,000 10, 000
Nu mb e r o f
he a ds 5 57 1 47 256 5 1 9 5, 309
Pr opor t i on
of he ads 0. 50 0. 57 0. 49 0. 51 0. 52 0. 531
a part i cul ar out c ome appr oac he s t he t r ue pr obabi l i t y for t hat out c ome as t he
numb e r of e v e nt s i nc r eas es .
ESTIMATING PROBABILITIES FOR SIMPLE OUTCOMES
Pr obabi l i t y es t i mat es c o me f rom t wo s our ces : e x pe r i e nc e and rat i onal mode l s .
T h e di s c us s i on of t he bi a s e d c oi n a bov e i l l ust rat es t he us e of e x pe r i e nc e t o ma k e
pr obabi l i t y es t i mat es . An e v e nt i s obs e r v e d a numb e r of t i me s ; t he pr opor t i on of
t i mes a par t i cul ar out c ome occur s i s c al c ul at ed; and t hat pr opor t i on i s us e d as t he
es t i mat e of t he pr obabi l i t y of t he out c ome . T h e mor e i mpor t ant i t i s t hat we have
an accur at e es t i mat e, t he l ar ger t he numbe r of e v e nt s we obs e r v e . I f we wa nt t o be
sure t hat a dr ug has a l o w pr obabi l i t y of c aus i ng harmf ul s i de ef f ect s, we gi ve i t
ext ens i ve t es t i ng ( obs er ve ma ny event s ) bef or e r e l e as i ng i t t o t he publ i c .
Rat i onal mo de l s are t he ot her s our ce of pr obabi l i t y es t i mat es . I n a rati onal
mode l , we try t o i dent i f y set s of e qua l l y pr obabl e out c ome s for an event . Suppos e
t hat we c o me f rom a di st ant c ount r y wh e r e c oi n f l i ppi ng i s unhe a r d of. Wh e n we are
appr oac he d for t he first t i me t o be t on t he f l i p of a c oi n, we wi l l be at a di st i nct
di s advant age i f we can' t es t i mat e t he pr obabi l i t y of obt ai ni ng a he a d or a tai l . Wha t
can we do wi t h z e r o e x pe r i e nc e i n c oi n f l i ppi ng? By e x a mi ni ng t he c oi n, we c an s ee
that t he t wo s i des are qui t e s ymmet r i c al . Th e r e i s no r eas on t o b e l i e v e i t wi l l l and
heads mor e of t en t han i t l ands t ai l s. We r eas on, t her ef or e, t hat t he he ads and tai l s
are e qua l l y l i ke l y al t er nat i ves . Si nc e t he y are t he onl y al t er nat i ves ,
P ( heads) + P (tails) = 1
and
P ( heads) = P (tai l s) = 0. 5
I n t he s ame wa y , i f we we r e unf ami l i ar wi t h di c e , we c oul d qui c kl y es t i mat e t he
pr obabi l i t y of r ol l i ng a t hr ee or a f i ve by not i c i ng t hat a di e i s a c u b e wi t h si x e qua l
f aces. We es t i mat e t hat e a c h si de i s e qua l l y l i ke l y t o t urn up on a rol l and c onc l ude
t hat t he pr obabi l i t y for e a c h si de i s one- si xt h. I f t he di e had b e e n i rregul ar, wi t h
f aces of var i ous s i zes and s hapes , we c oul d not have ma de t hi s pr edi ct i on.
I n gener al , rat i onal mo de l s for es t i mat i ng pr obabi l i t i es s uc h as t hes e ma ke
ext ens i ve us e of ar gume nt s about s y mme t r y or e q ui v a l e nc e of al t er nat i ves.
COMPUTI NG PROBABILITIES FOR COMPLEX OUTCOMES
A s i mpl e out c ome i s one for wh i c h we can es t i mat e t he pr obabi l i t i es ei t her
from e x pe r i e nc e or f rom a rat i onal mode l . If A and B are t wo s i mpl e out c ome s , we
may def i ne a c o mpl e x e v e nt , J, as t he oc c ur r e nc e of ei t her A or B. Tha t i s,
J = A or B
Ev e nt s c o mb i ne d i n t hi s wa y are sai d t o be O R e d t oget her . Ge t t i ng a numbe r
great er t han t hr ee i n r ol l i ng a di e i s a c o mpl e x out c ome wh i c h consi st s of t hr ee
s i mpl e out c ome s : r ol l i ng a f our or a f i ve or a six. T h e s e s i mpl e out c ome s are OR e d
t oget her t o f or m t he c o mpl e x out c ome . We can def i ne a di f f er ent c ompl e x event , K,
as t he oc c ur r e nc e of bot h A and B.
K = A and B
Ev e nt s c o mb i n e d i n t hi s wa y are sai d t o be A N D e d t oget her . I n r ol l i ng a pai r
of di c e , get t i ng a 12 i s a c o mpl e x e v e nt whi c h consi st s of t wo s i mpl e e v e nt s : r ol l i ng
a six on t he fi rst di e and r ol l i ng a si x on t he s e c ond di e. T h e s e s i mpl e out c ome s are
A N D e d t oge t he r t o f orm t he c ompl e x out c ome .
Ma n y c o mpl e x out c ome s i nv ol v e bot h me t hods of c o mb i ni ng s i mpl er out -
c ome s . Rol l i ng a 10 on a pai r of di c e consi st s of r ol l i ng a f our on t he first di e and
a si x on t he s e c ond, or a f i ve on t he first di e and a f i ve on t he s e c ond, or a six on
t he first di e and a f our on t he s ec ond. He r e t he s i mpl e out c ome s are A N D e d
t oget her t o f orm c o mpl e x out c ome s wh i c h are, i n t urn, ORe d t oget her t o f orm mor e
c ompl e x out c ome s . I n t hi s sect i on, we wi l l s how h o w t o c omput e t he pr obabi l i t i es
of c o mpl e x e v e nt s f rom t he pr obabi l i t i es of t he c o mpo ne nt s i mpl er e v e nt s . To do
t hi s ade quat e l y , we wi l l n e e d t o c ons i de r a f ai rl y c o mpl e x e x a mpl e s uc h as t he
f ol l owi ng.
Suppos e t hat y o u have a box c ont ai ni ng 100 i dent i cal bal l s l a be l e d f rom 1 t o
100. I ma g i ne t hat y o u s hake t he box t hor oughl y and t he n dr aw out one bal l wi t hout
l ooki ng. It i s eas y t o cons t r uct a rat i onal mo de l for t hi s e v e nt , wh i c h i ndi cat es t hat
t he 100 al t er nat i ve out c ome s are e qua l l y pr obabl e and t hat e a c h has a pr obabi l i t y
of 1/100.
Suppo s e t hat bal l s 1 t hr ough 30 are r ed, bal l s 31 t hr ough 60 are whi t e , and bal l s
61 t hr ough 100 are bl ue . Fur t her , s uppos e t hat bal l s 1 t hr ough 50 are ma de of wo o d
and t hat bal l s 51 t hr ough 100 are ma de of pl ast i c ( see Fi g ur e 1).
To c o mput e pr obabi l i t i es for out c ome s wh i c h are ORe d t oget her :
1. I dent i f y c l ear l y t he set of out c ome and t he rel at i ons for wh i c h y o u wa nt t o
c o mput e a pr obabi l i t y. For e x a mpl e , i f as ked t o f i nd t he pr obabi l i t y of r ol l i ng a 3 or
a 5 y o u can wr i t e " F i n d Pr ob (3 or 5 ) . "
2. De t e r mi ne wh e t h e r or not t he out c ome s are mutually exclusive. T w o out c ome s
are mut ual l y e x c l us i v e i f t he y can' t oc c ur t oget her . I t i s i mpos s i bl e t o get bot h a
he ad and a tai l wi t h a s i ngl e toss of a coi n. The r e f or e , " h e a d " and " t a i l " are mut ual l y
e xc l us i v e out c ome s of t hi s event . In t he s ame wa y , get t i ng a 3 and a 5 on t he rol l
of a s i ngl e di e are mut ual l y e x c l us i v e out c ome s . In pr obabi l i t y t er ms, i f A and B are
mut ual l y e x c l us i v e out c ome s , t hen Pr ob (A and B) = 0; t hat i s, t he pr obabi l i t y t hat
t he t wo oc c ur t oge t he r i s zer o.
3A. I f t he out c ome s are mut ual l y e xc l us i v e , t hen t he pr obabi l i t y of t he ORe d
out c omes i s t he s um of t he pr obabi l i t i es of t he separ at e out c ome s . Tha t i s,
Pr ob (A or B or . . . K) = Pr ob (A) + Pr ob (B) + . . . + Pr ob (K).
Probabilities 247
Example:
Wha t i s t he pr obabi l i t y of r ol l i ng a t hr ee or a f i ve on a s i ngl e rol l of a di e ?
Solution
St ep 1. Fi n d Pr ob (3 or 5).
St e p 2. T h e s e out c ome s are mut ual l y e xc l us i v e as we not e d abov e .
St ep 3. Pr ob (3 or 5) = Pr ob (3) + Pr ob (5)
= 1/6 + 1/6
= 1/3
Example:
Wha t i s t he pr obabi l i t y of dr a wi ng a whi t e bal l i n t he si t uat i on de s c r i be d
a bo v e ?
Solution
St ep 1. Fi nd Pr ob (1 or 2 or 3 . . . 30).
St ep 2. T h e s e out c ome s are mut ual l y e x c l us i v e s i nce we ha v e as s ume d
t hat onl y one bal l i s t o be dr a wn at a t i me.
St e p 3. Pr ob (1 or 2 or 3 or . . . 30)
= Pr ob (1) + Pr ob (2) + Pr ob (3) . . . + Pr ob (30)
= 1/100 + 1/100 + 1/100 . . . + 1/100
= 30/100
= 0. 30
3B. I f t wo out c ome s are not mut ual l y e xc l us i v e , t he n t he pr obabi l i t y of t he ORe d
out c ome s i s t he s um of t he pr obabi l i t i es of t he separat e out c ome s minus t he proba-
bi l i t y t hat t he t wo oc c ur t oget her . Tha t i s,
Pr ob (A or B) = Pr ob (A) + Pr ob (B) - Pr ob (A and B)
Example:
Fi n d t he pr obabi l i t y of dr a wi ng a whi t e bal l or a wo o d e n bal l .
Solution
St ep 1. Fi nd Pr ob ( whi t e or woode n) .
St ep 2. T h e s e out c ome s are not mut ual l y e x c l us i v e s i nce we can dr aw a
bal l wh i c h i s bot h whi t e and wo o de n.
St ep 3. Pr ob ( whi t e or wo o de n)
= Pr ob ( whi t e) + Pr ob ( woode n) Pr ob ( whi t e and wo o de n)
= 0.30 + 0. 50 - Pr ob (31 or 32 or . . . 50)
= 0.80 - 0.20
= 0.60
T h e r eas on t hat we mus t subt ract Pr ob ( A and B) for out c ome s t hat are not
mut ual l y e x c l us i v e i s t hat ot he r wi s e s ome out c ome s wo u l d be c ount e d t wi c e . I n t he
e x a mpl e a bov e , t o f i nd t he pr obabi l i t y t hat a bal l i s wo o d e n , we a dd up pr obabi l i t i es
for out c ome s 1 t hr ough 50. To f i nd t he pr obabi l i t y t hat a bal l i s whi t e , we add up
t he pr obabi l i t i es of out c ome s 31 t hr ough 60. No w, t o f i nd t he pr obabi l i t y of dr a wi ng
a bal l wh i c h i s whi t e or wo o d e n , wha t we r eal l y wa nt t o do i s t o a dd t he pr ob-
abi l i t i es of out c ome s 1 t hr ough 60. By a ddi ng t he pr obabi l i t y of dr a wi ng a whi t e bal l
and dr a wi ng a wo o d e n bal l , we are i n ef f ect c ount i ng out c ome s 31 t hr ough 50 t wi c e .
T h e s e are j us t t he out c ome s wh i c h are bot h whi t e and wo o d e n . Thi s error i s
c or r ec t ed by subt r act i ng Pr ob ( whi t e and wo o de n) = Pr ob ( 31) + Pr ob (32) + . . . +
Pr ob (50).
For s ome , t he di agr ams i n Fi g ur e 2 he l p t o cl ari f y t he di f f er ence b e t we e n
out c ome s wh i c h are mut ual l y e x c l us i v e and t hose wh i c h are not .
To c o mput e pr obabi l i t i es for out c ome s wh i c h are A N D e d t oget her :
1. I dent i f y c l ear l y t he set of out c ome s and t hei r rel at i ons for whi c h y o u want t o
c omput e a pr obabi l i t y, e. g. , Pr ob (A and B and C) .
248
Probabilities
249
2. De t e r mi ne whe t he r or not t he out c ome s are independent of e a c h ot her. An
out c ome i s i nde pe nde nt of anot her out c ome i f t he pr obabi l i t y of t he first out c ome
i s not i nf l ue nc e d by t he oc c ur r e nc e or non- oc c ur r enc e of t he s e c ond. For e x a mpl e ,
t he pr obabi l i t y t hat t her e wi l l be an e c l i ps e of t he mo o n t omor r ow doe s not d e p e n d
on whe t he r or not I am ki nd t o my cat. T h e t wo out c ome s are unr el at ed and
i nde pe nde nt . Ho we v e r , t he pr obabi l i t y t hat I we a r a r ai ncoat t omor r ow i s depen-
dent on t he we at he r . If t he we a t he r i s rai ny or over cast , t he pr obabi l i t y t hat I wi l l
we a r a rai ncoat i s mu c h hi g he r t han i f i t i s s unny.
3A. I f t he out c ome s are i nde pe nde nt , t he n t he pr obabi l i t y of t he A N D e d out c ome s
i s t he pr oduc t of t he pr obabi l i t i es of t he separ at e out c ome s . Tha t i s,
Pr ob (A and B and . . . K) = Pr ob (A) x Pr ob (B) x . . . x Pr ob (K)
Solution
St ep 1. Fi n d Pr ob ( head and he a d and head) .
St ep 2. Suc c e s s i v e c oi n f l i ps are i nde pe nde nt of e a c h ot her. Co i ns ha v e no
me mo r y for pr e v i ous e v e nt s .
St ep 3. Pr ob ( head and he a d and head)
= Pr ob ( head) x Pr ob ( head) x Pr ob ( head)
= 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2
= 1/8
3B. I f t he out c ome s are not i nde pe nde nt t he n we ha v e t o t ake t he de pe nde nc i e s
i nt o ac c ount . We can expr es s t he d e p e n d e n c e of out c ome B on out c ome A as
f ol l ows :
Pr ob ( B | A ) * P r o b , ( B | 5 )
Thi s s houl d be r ead as t he pr obabi l i t y of B g i v e n t hat A has oc c ur r ed i s not e qua l
t o t he pr obabi l i t y of B g i v e n t hat A has not oc c ur r ed (K ma y be r ead as not A) . Pr ob
(B | A) i s c al l e d t he conditional pr obabi l i t y of B g i v e n A.
Suppos e we k no w t hat a wo o d e n bal l has b e e n c hos e n but we don' t k no w wha t
col or i t i s. T h e pr obabi l i t y t hat i t i s whi t e i s t he c ondi t i onal pr obabi l i t y of white
g i v e n wooden; t hat i s, Pr ob ( whi t e | wo o de n) . Wh e n we l ear n t hat a wo o d e n bal l has
b e e n c hos e n we k no w t hat one of t he out c ome s of 1 t hr ough 50 has oc c ur r ed but we
don' t k no w wh i c h one . Of t hes e 50 out c ome s , 20 are whi t e . We can c o nc l ude t he n
t hat Pr ob ( whi t e | wo o d e n) = 20/50 = 0.40.
I f t wo out c ome s A and B are not i nde pe nde nt , t he pr obabi l i t y of t he A N D e d
out c ome i s t he pr obabi l i t y of A t i mes t he condi t i onal pr obabi l i t y of B g i v e n A, t hat
i s, Pr ob (A and B) = Pr ob (A) x Pr ob (B | A) .
Example:
Wha t i s t he pr obabi l i t y of dr a wi ng a bal l t hat i s bot h wo o d e n and whi t e ?
Solution
St ep 1. Fi n d Pr ob ( wo o de n and whi t e) .
St e p 2. T h e s e out c ome s are not i nde pe nde nt s i nc e Pr ob ( wo o de n | whi t e)
T-
4
Pr ob ( wo o de n | not whi t e )
St ep 3. Pr ob ( wo o de n and whi t e)
= Pr ob ( woode n) x Pr ob ( whi t e | wo o de n)
= 0. 50 x 0.40 = 0.20
Not i c e t hat t he or der i n wh i c h we c ons i de r t he out c ome doe s n' t mat t er. Th u s ,
Pr ob ( whi t e and wo o de n)
= Pr ob ( whi t e) x Pr ob ( wo o de n | whi t e )
= 0.30 x 2/3
= 0.20
Ma ny pr obl e ms i nv ol v e bot h A NDi n g and ORi n g of Out comes. Suc h pr obl e ms can
be s ol v e d by s uc c e s s i v e appl i c at i ons of t he r ul es we ha v e b e e n us i ng.
Example:
Wha t i s t he pr obabi l i t y of get t i ng a 10 wh e n r ol l i ng a pai r of di c e ?
Solution
St ep 1. Fi nd Pr ob (10) = Pr ob [(4 and 6) or (5 and 5) or (6 and 4)].
St ep 2. T h e A N D e d out c ome s are i nde pe nde nt and t he ORe d out c ome s
are mut ual l y e xc l us i ve .
St e p 3. Pr ob (10)
= [Prob (4 and 6) or (5 and 5) or (6 and 4)]
= Pr ob [(4 and 6) + Pr ob (5 and 5) + Pr ob (6 and 4)]
= Pr ob (4) x Pr ob (6) + Pr ob (5) x Pr ob (5) + Pr ob (6) x Pr ob (4)
= 1/6 x 1/6 + 1/6 x 1/6 + 1/6 x 1/6
= 1/36 + 1/36 + 1/36
= 3/36
= 1/12

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1981 by THE FRANKLI N I NSTI TUTE

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