NAMA : NITA FERDIANA

NPM : 140720140011

TUGAS MATA KULIAH KOMPUTASI STATISTIK

1. A statistician buys a pack of 10 new golf balls, and drops each golf ball from a height of one
meter, and measures the height in centimeters it returns on the first bounce. The ten values
are:
79,9 80,0 78,9 78,5 75,6 80,5 82,5 80,1 81,6 76,7
Assume y, the height (in cm) a golf ball bounces when dropped from a one meter height is
normal (,
2
), where the standard deviation = 2.

a. Assume a normal (75, 10
2
) prior for . Find the posterior distribution of .
m = 75
s = 10
= 2
n = 10
=

79,43

79,412

= 0,3984
S = 0,63119
Jadi, Distribusi posterior dari Normal (79,412 ; 0,63119
2
)

b. Calculate a 95% Bayesian credible interval for .
= 0,05
Bayesian credible Interval =

= ( 79,412 1,96 * 0,63119 < < 79,412 + 1,96 * 0,63119 )
= ( 78,175 < < 80,649 )

c. Perform a Bayesian test of the hypothesis
H
0
: 80 versus H
1
: < 80
At the 5% level of significance.
P(H
0
: 80 l y
1
, . . . ,y
n
) = P (Z

= P (Z

= P (Z 0,932 )
= 1 - P (Z 0,932 )
= 1 0,8238
= 0,1762
Dengan =0,05 maka H
0
diterima (p-value > ).
2. Cattle being ruminants have multiple chambers in the stomaches. Stimulating specific receptors
causes reflex contraction of the reticular groove and swallowed fluid then bypassed the
reticulo-rumen and moves directly to the abomasum. Scientists wanted to develop a simple
nonradioactive, noninvasive test to determine when this occurs. In a study to determine the
fate of swallowed fluids in cattle, McLeay, Carruthers, and Neil (1997) investigate a carbon 13
(
13
C) octanoic acid breath test as a means of detecting a reticular groove contraction in cattle.
Twelve adult cows were randomly assigned to two groups of 6 cow. The first group had 200 mg
of
13
C octanoid acid administered into the reticulum, and the second group had the same dose
of
13
C octanoid acid administered into the reticulo-osmasal orifice. Change in the enrichment of
13
C in breath was measured for each cow 10 minutes later. The results are:
13
C Administered into Reticulum
13
C Administered into Reticulo-omasal
Orifice
Cow ID x Cow ID y
8 1.5 14 3.5
9 1.9 15 4.7
10 0.4 16 4.8
11 -1.2 17 4.1
12 1.7 18 4.1
13 0.7 19 5.3

a) Explain why the observations of variables x and y can be considered independent in this
experiment.
Nilai observasi x dan y disebut independen dikarenakan kelompok sapi yang
menghasilkan nilai observasi x berbeda dengan kelompok sapi yang menghasilkan
nilai observasi y. Dua kelompok sapi tersebut menerima perlakuan yang berbeda
kemudian hasilnya dibandingkan. Dan hasil perlakuan tersebut tidak saling
bergantung atau saling mempengaruhi satu dengan lainnya.

b) Suppose the change in the enrichment of
13
C for cows administered in the reticulum is
normal (
1,

), where

= 1.00
2
. Use a normal (2, 2
2
) prior for
1.
Calculate the
posterior distribution of
1
Ix
8
. . . .,x
13

= 0,833

1
Ix
8
. . . .,x
13
Normal (

>>

= 0,88
>>

= 0,16

Jadi,
1
Ix
8
. . . .,x
13
Normal (



c) Suppose the change in the enrichment of
13
C for cows administered in the reticulum is
normal (
2,

), where

= 1.40
2
. Use a normal (2, 2
2
) prior for
1.
Calculate the
posterior distribution of
1
Iy
8
. . . .,y
13

= 4,417

1
Iy
8
. . . .,y
13
Normal (

>>

= 4,234
>>

= 0,302

Jadi,
1
Iy
8
. . . .,y
13
Normal (


d) Calculate the posterior distribution of
d
=
1
-

2
, the difference between the means.

d
Ix
11
, . . . ,x
n11
,y
12
, . . . ,y
n22
Normal (

>>

= 0,88 4,234
= -3,354
>>

= 0,16 + 0,302
= 0,462

0,68
Jadi,
d
Ix
11
, . . . ,x
n11
,y
12
, . . . ,y
n22
Normal (

e) Calculate a 95% Bayesian credible interval for
d.

= 0,05
95% Bayesian credible Interval =

= ( -3,354 1,96 * 0,68 <
d
< -3,354 + 1,96 * 0,68 )
= (-4,687 <
d
< -2,021 )

f) Test the hypothesis
H
0
:
1
-

2
= 0 versus H
1
:
1
-

2
= 0
At the 5% level of significance. What conclusion can be drawn.
Dengan menggunakan Bayesian credible interval, nilai 0 tidak berada dalam selang
interval maka H
0
ditolak. Kesimpulan yang diperoleh yaitu rata-rata penyerapan
carbon 13 (
13
C) octanoid acid yang diberikan pada reticulum dan pada reticulo-
omasal adalah berbeda. Atau dengan kata lain, pemberian carbon 13 (
13
C) octanoid
acid pada dua cara tersebut memberikan hasil penyerapan yang berbeda.