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574716238
574716238
Operations Analysis
Sixth Edition
Steven Nahmias
Santa Clara University
Me
Graw
Hill
Boston Burr Ridge, IL Dubuque, IA Madison, Wl New York San Francisco St. Louis
Bangkok Bogota Caracas Kuala Lumpur Lisbon London Madrid Mexico City
Milan Montreal New Delhi Santiago Seoul Singapore Sydney Taipei Toronto
Contents
About the Author xv
Preface xvi
Introduction xvii
Chapter 1
1.12 Summary 47
Additional Problems for Chapter 1 48
Chapter 2
Forecasting
52
Chapter Overview 52
2.1 The Time Horizon in Forecasting 55
2.2 Characteristics of Forecasts 56
2.3 Subjective Forecasting Methods 56
2.4 Objective Forecasting Methods 57
Causal Models 57
Time Series Methods 58
Snapshot Application: Advanced Forecasting,
Inc., Serves the Semiconductor Industry 59
Problems for Sections 2.12.4 59
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
Notation Conventions 61
Evaluating Forecasts 61
Problems for Section 2.6 63
Methods for Forecasting Stationary Series 64
Moving Averages 64
Problems on Moving Averages 67
Exponential Smoothing 67
Multiple-Step-Ahead Forecasts 71
Comparison of Exponential Smoothing and
Moving A verages 72
Problems for Section 2.7 73
Snapshot Application: Sport Obermeyer Slashes
Costs with Improved Forecasting 74
Trend-Based Methods 75
Regression Analysis 75
Problems for Section 2.8 76
Double Exponential Smoothing Using Holt's
Method 77
More Problems for Section 2.8 78
viii Contents
2.9
Chapter 3
Aggregate Planning
124
Contents
Chapter 5
Chapter 4
ix
x Contents
5.9
Chapter 6
Supply Chain Management 311
Chapter Overview 311
The Supply Chain as a Strategic
Weapon 315
Snapshot Application: Wal-Mart Wins with Solid
Supply Chain Management 316
6.1 The Transportation Problem 316
The Greedy Heuristic 319
6.2
Solving Transportation Problems with Linear
Programming 320
6.3 Generalizations of the Transportation
Problem 322
Infeasible Routes 323
Unbalanced Problems 323
6.4 More General Network Formulations 324
Problems for Sections 6.1-6.4 327
Snapshot Application: IBM Streamlines
Its Supply Chain for Spare Parts Using
Sophisticated Mathematical Models 328
6.5 Distribution Resource Planning 330
Problems for Section 6.5 332
6.6
Determining Delivery Routes in
Supply Chains 332
Practical Issues in Vehicle Scheduling 336
Snapshot Application: Air Products Saves Big
with Routing and Scheduling Optimizer 337
Problems for Section 6.6 337
6.7
Designing Products for Supply Chain
Efficiency 338
Postponement in Supply Chains 339
Additional Issues in Supply Chain
Design 340
Snapshot Application: Dell Computer Designs
the Ultimate Supply Chain 342
Problems for Section 6.7 342
6.8 The Role of Information in the Supply
Chain 343
The Bullwhip Effect 344Snapshot Application: Saturn Emerges as
an Industry Leader with Scientific Supply
Chain Management 347
Electronic Commerce 347
Electronic Data Interchange 348
Web-Based Transactions Systems 349
RFID Technology Provides Faster
Product Flow 350
Problems for Section 6.8 351
6.9 Multilevel Distribution Systems 351
Problems for Section 6.9 354
Contents
Chapter 7
Push and Pull Production Control Systems:
MRP and JIT 364
Chapter Overview
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.9
Chapter 8
Operations Scheduling
417
364
xi
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
xii
Contents
8.9
8.10
9.3
455
8.11
8.12
8.13
8.14
Chapter 9
Project Scheduling 500
9.4
462
471
52.3
52.4
52.5
Introduction 473
Structural Aspects of Queuing
Models 474
Notation 475
Little's Formula 476
The Exponential and Poisson Distributions
in Queuing 476
Aside
52.6
52.7
52.8
52.9
52.10
52.11
52.12
52.13
52.14
477'
513
Bibliography
9.6
Resource Considerations
533
9.7
9.8
9.9
9.10 Summary
544
Contents xiii
Chapter 10
Facilities Layout and Location
10.9
550
Chapter 11
Quality and Assurance 624
Chapter Overview 624
Overview of This Chapter 628
11.1 Statistical Basis of Control
Charts 629
Problems for Section 11.1 631
11.2 Control Charts for Variables: The X and
R Charts 633
X Charts 636
Relationship to Classical Statistics 636
R Charts 638
Problems for Section 11.2 639
11.3 Control Charts for Attributes:
The p Chart 641
p Charts for Varying Subgroup
Sizes 643
Problems for Section 11.3 644
11.4 Thee Chart 646
Problems for Section 11.4 648
11.5 Classical Statistical Methods and
Control Charts 649
Problem for Section 11.5 649
*11.6 Economic Design of X Charts 650
Problems for Section 11.6 656
xiv
Contents
11.7
12.2
12.3
11.8
11.9
Notation 660
Single Sampling for Attributes 660
11.11
11.12
11.13
11.14
12.4
12.5
12.6
12.7
12.9
Chapter 12
Reliability and Maintainability
11.15
11.16
700