Susan Williams

GEOG 588
September 2013

Lesson 3: Hazard Analysis for Southwestern University in

Georgetown, TX
Southwestern University, the oldest university in Texas, was founded in 1840.
This private, four-year college is located in the 78626 zip code within the city
of Georgetown in Williamson County, central Texas (Southwestern, 2013).

Plausible Hazards (in alphabetical order)

Air Quality
Animal Incident
Aviation Incident
Civil Disorder
Crime
Cyberattacks
Dam Failure
Drought
Earthquake (risk level much lower than national average)
Epidemic
Fire
Flood
Hailstorms
Hazardous Materials
Heatwave
Hurricane / Tropical Storm
Pipeline Failure
Terrorism
Thunderstorm and lightning
Train Derailment
Tornado
Utility Outage
Water Contamination
Winter Storm

HAZARD PROFILE WORKSHEET

1

HAZARD:

TORNADO

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE (Percentage of the community that can be affected):

Although tornadoes vary in strength, the potential magnitude can be

catastrophic. They
can cause multiple deaths, completely shut down facilities for thirty days or
more, and cause more than fifty percent of affected properties to be severely
damaged.
FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE:

Likely: Between 10 and 100%

probability in next year, or at
least one chance in next 10
years.

Between 1950-2010, 70 tornado

events (magnitude 2+) occurred
in or near zip code 78626 (World
Media Group, 2013).

SEASONAL PATTERN:

Although tornadoes can happen at any

time, experts consider tornado season
in central Texas to occur in the spring
(April, May, June) and fall (October,
November, December). Furthermore,
most tornadoes in this area occur
between 3 and 9pm, although tornadoes
outside of that time range have been
reported.

AREAS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED MOST:

Mobile homes.
People outdoors or in vehicles (particularly under highway overpasses
and bridges).
Buildings with large spans (e.g., shopping malls, auditoriums,
gymnasiums, cafeterias, large hallways).
High-rise buildings and/or buildings with many windows.
Areas with lots of debris which could become flying projectiles.
Unincorporated areas of counties where construction codes are not
enforceable.

(National Disaster Education Coalition, 1999).

PROBABLE DURATION:

Tornadoes vary greatly in size, intensity, and duration. Although many are
short-lived (5 to 10 minutes in duration), some extreme tornadoes can last
for hours.
Average path lengths and widths are 26 mi and 400 yards, respectively.
However, some extreme tornadoes may exceed a mile or more in width and
travel hundreds of miles.
Average travel speed is 2540 mph, but speeds ranging from stationary to 68
mph have been reported. (Weather Explained, 2013)
WARNING TIME (Potential Speed of Onset):
2

Minimal (or no) warning.

The average lead-time for tornado warnings is currently only 13 minutes
(NOAA, 2013b).

EXISTING WARNING SYSTEMS:

Outdoor Warning System: Georgetown is one of the few central TX

cities with a siren warning system; however, the system does not cover
the entire city (Chung, 2011).
Emergency Notification System (ENS): reverse-911 style phone system
not always applicable in the situation of a tornado because we don't
have enough advanced warning to program all that information in
(ibid)
NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio (NWR)
Emergency Alert System (EAS): on radios.
TV Broadcasts: emergency news interruptions

Tornado Scenario for Southwestern University

Figure 1: Map of scenario area. Yellow pins mark Georgetown Hospital and Carver
Elementary School, a red bubble pin marks Southwestern University campus, and a red line
traces the center of the tornados path. Image created from Google Earth and used here for
educational purposes only.

It is a typical April day in Georgetown, warm and humid with a chance of

afternoon thunderstorms. The weather service has issued a tornado watch
for several central Texas counties, including Williamson. Multiple athletic
events involving spectators are taking place on Southwestern University
campus that afternoon.
Shortly after 2pm, when schools and office buildings are occupied, a large
funnel cloud is spotted near I-35 and Leander Road, a few miles southwest of
Southwestern University. The weather service issues a tornado watch.
Georgetown sirens are activated, but they do not cover the entire city and
can be difficult to hear if there is pounding rain, hail, wind, or thunder. There
is not adequate time to program necessary information into the reversedialing Emergency Notification System. Many older residents own a NOAA
All-Hazards Weather Radio, and others have been alerted via television and
radio emergency broadcasts. However, there is some confusion as to the
difference between a Warning and a Watch and how citizens should
respond.
Most University students do not own a NOAA Weather Radio. Many faculty
and staff do own such radios, but keep the radios at home and not in offices
or classrooms. Although some students will receive Warning via television or
radio emergency broadcasts, the majority are occupied in classes, the
library, study groups, athletic events, or working, and therefore have no easy
access to these media at such a critical moment.
The tornado proceeded northeast, directly over St. Davids Georgetown
Hospital and caused severe structural damage before clipping Carver
Elementary School. The funnel continued to grow in size as it moved
northeast through several residential subdivisions, completely leveling an
entire block of older houses and killing several people. It crossed 29 (E.
University Blvd) and destroyed railroad tracks on the eastern boundary of
Southwestern campus.
Now measuring nearly 400 yards wide, the tornado continued northeast as it
churned through the center of campus. The Frank Smith Library sustained a
direct hit, as did the Corbin J. Robertson Center, a 95,000 square-foot
recreational and athletic facility. Many student residence halls were also
severely damaged. Several older brick buildings collapsed when their roofs
were torn off, resulting in numerous injuries and several fatalities. Many
people sustained injuries as a result from being struck by glass and other
flying objects.
After passing directly over the Physical Plant Building and Warehouse and
Fountainwood Observatory, the tornado moved through open farmland for
another half-mile before lifting up and disappearing.

Roads into the campus area are almost completely blocked with debris,
including mangled railroad tracks, street guardrails, vehicles, and trees.
Power is out, although some generators are slowly being brought online.
Power lines are down and pose an additional threat as some are live. Many
gas and water lines have ruptured. Telephone lines and internet service are
down. Concerned parents, community members, and media are all
attempting to reach the campus and many students are attempting to leave,
further slowing efforts of rescue crews who are attempting to access the
area.

Figure 2: Southwestern University map. Retrieved September 2013 at

http://www.southwestern.edu/visit/maps/campus_map.pdf , used here for educational
purposes only.

References
Capital Area Council of Governments (n.d.) Emergency Notification System
Cellular Telephone Interface. Retrieved September 2013 at
http://wireless.capcog.org/ENS/Intro.aspx
Chung, Andrew (2011) KVUE News: Central Texas cities use different ways to
alert residents of severe weather. Retrieved September 2013 at
http://www.kvue.com/news/Central-Texas-cities-use-differentways-to-alert-residents-of-severe-weather-117365438.html
City-Data.com (2013) Williamson County, TX. Retrieved September 2013 at
http://www.city-data.com/county/Williamson_County-TX.html
Georgetown Fire Department (n.d.). Personal & Family Safety: Tornadoes.
Retrieved September 2013 at https://fire.georgetown.org/fireprevention/safety-tips/
National Atlas of the United States (2013). When and Where Do Tornadoes
Occur? Retrieved September 2013 at
http://nationalatlas.gov/articles/climate/a_tornadoes.html
National Disaster Education Coalition (1999). Talking About Disaster: Guide
for Standard Messages. Tornado. Retrieved September 2013 at
http://www.disastercenter.com/guide/tornado.pdf
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations [NOAA] National Weather
Service [NWS] (2013a). Retrieved September 2013 at
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?
CityName=Georgetown&state=TX&site=EWX&lat=30.6476&lon=-97.6863
NOAA (2013b). Tornadoes 101. Retrieved September 2013 at
http://www.noaa.gov/features/protecting/tornados101.html
Southwestern University (2013). Retrieved September 2013 at
http://www.southwestern.edu
U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety
Administration [PHMSA] (2013) Pipeline Failure Investigation Reports.
Retrieved September 2013 at
http://www.phmsa.dot.gov/pipeline/library/failure-reports
The Weather Channel (2012). Storm Encyclopedia: Tornadoes. Retrieved
September 2013 at
http://www.weather.com/encyclopedia/tornado/forecast.html

Weather Explained (2013). The Weather Almanac, Volume 1: Tornadoes.

Retrieved September 2013 at http://www.weatherexplained.com/Vol1/Tornadoes.html
World Media Group (2013). 78626 Zip Code Natural Disasters and Weather
Extremes at USA.com. Retrieved September 2013 from
http://www.usa.com/78626-tx-natural-disasters-extremes.htm